Doctoraal proefschrift Niels Groen

(Universiteit van Maastricht)

Grip op escalatie van publieke IT-projecten

Hoe worden publieke IT-projecten onbeheersbaar, en

hoe kan het worden voorkomen en opgelost?

2

Projectescalatie als een contingentietheorie

4

Theoretisch model voor projectescalatie

5

Commitment to the course of

action

Ineffectiveness of the course of

action

(E-government) project

escalation

COMBINEDWITH

IS CONTINGENTUPON

IS CONTINGENT

UPON

Contingency theory

Esca

latio

n th

eory

IS CONTINGENTUPON

? ?

Contingenties in e-overheidsprojecten die leiden tot ineffectiviteit

Technische complexiteit Adoptieproblemen Conflict tussen belanghebbenden

Coördinatie- en communicatieproblemen

Veranderende eisen

Contingenties in e-overheidsprojecten die leiden tot commitment

Sunk cost effect Voltooïngseffect Zelfrechtvaardiging

Informatieasymmetrie Optimisme en risicozoekend gedrag

Sociale en politieke druk

De rol van verschillende contingenties in geëscaleerde en niet-geëscaleerde projecten

8

105

Escalated Non-escalated

Project D

Project S

Project T

Project Q

Project P

Dri

ving

inef

fect

iven

ess

Tech. comp.

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Adoption ✔

Conflict ✔

Coord. and com.

✔

Changing / new req.

✔ ✔ ✔

Dri

ving

com

mitm

ent

Sunk cost ✔

Comp. eff. ✔

Self-just. ✔ ✔

Inf. asym. ✔ ✔ ✔

Opt. and risk. bias.

✔ ✔

Pol. and soc. pres.

Table 2.7 – Salience of contingencies driving ineffectiveness or commitment in escalated and non-escalated projects

Theoretisch model voor het voorkomen van projectescalatie 9

117

Theoretical framework

Following the aforemention line of reasoning, the theoretical framework for this study is constructed and depicted in Figure 3-1.

Figure 3-1 - Theoretical framework for prevention of e-government project escalation

Circumventing commitment to the

course of action

(E-government) project escalation

Escalation theory

Re-directing the course of action or terminating when faced with project

ineffectiveness

PREVENTS

Practices XYZ

ARE EFFECTIVE IN

Diminishing the likelihood of sunk cost

effect, completion effect, information asymmetry, self-justification, and

optimism and risk-seeking biases

ALLOWS FOR

ALLOWS FOR

Con

tinge

ncy

theo

ry

Technieken die de waarschijnlijkheid van commitment aan een falende aanpak reduceren

10

143

Figure 3-5 - Difference in business value delivery

The difference between traditional approaches and the agile approach applied in project O with regard to the timing of business value delivery is visually depicted in Figure 3-5. TP3.2 A short-cycled feedback loop, involving tangible and

demonstrable results every four weeks, diminishes the likelihood of contingencies that promote commitment through lack or distortion of information, such information asymmetry, optimism bias, or completion effect.

146

The difference between the agile approach of project O and more traditional approaches in terms of visibility is visually depicted in Figure 3-6.

Figure 3-6 - Difference in visibility

Concluding, the findings of the study presented in this chapter suggest that e-government project escalation can be prevented by diminishing the likelihood of contingencies that drive commitment to a certain course of action. As it is supported that even successful, non-escalating e-government projects will be faced with contingencies that have a negative effect on the

Meer informatie? Niels Groen (06) 11 64 59 43 niels.groen@maastrichtuniversity.nl niels.groen@blinklane.com