Using long-term trend assessment in business strategy

@fdemeyer

frederic@i4fi.com

fredericdemeyer.com

Instituteforfutureinsights

fdemeyer

my background

my 20’s

my 30’s

my 40’s

my 50’s

helping you anticipate the future

???  

I admit, I am a futurist…

But what does it mean?

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." Marshal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers” Thomas Watson (IBM) 1943

“640k ought to be enough for anybody” Bill Gates, 1981

…Seeing beyond the paradigm is extremely difficult, but not impossible…

Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers

Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers

Sophistication

Acc

urac

y

Ways to assess the future

Frederic  De  Meyer  @  i4fi  

GUT  FEEL  

…just by walking around…

…is this an indication of a trend towards URBAN FARMING?

Sophistication

Acc

urac

y

Ways to spot long-term trends

Frederic  De  Meyer  @  i4fi  

GUT  FEEL  

…mass customization is spreading to many consumer products…

…what if it would apply to other industries?

Health Care Retail

Education Energy

Sophistication

Acc

urac

y

Ways to spot long-term trends

Frederic  De  Meyer  @  i4fi  

GUT  FEEL  

Banks Music Press

…what do we see?

Banks Music Press

…we are witnessing a growing trend to desintermediation…

Sophistication

Acc

urac

y

Ways to spot long-term trends

Frederic  De  Meyer  @  i4fi  

GUT  FEEL  

Pa5ents  now  have  limitless  ways  to  be  as  knowledgeable  as  the  

doctor  (mass)  Customiza5on    of  health  care  

becomes  the  new  paradigm  

Open  source  pharma  challenges  the  current  business  R&D  model  

New  market  for  DIY  health    (9000  Apple  apps  for  personal  health  

care)  

…look at what is happening in health care…

Patients now have limitless ways to be as knowledgeable

as the doctor (mass) Customization of health care

becomes the new paradigm

Open source pharma challenges the current business R&D model

New market for DIY health (9000 Apple apps for personal

health care)

…the future? Health provision ‘as a service’…

Sophistication

Acc

urac

y

Ways to spot long-term trends

Frederic  De  Meyer  @  i4fi  

GUT  FEEL  

…the power of system thinking…

Sophistication

Acc

urac

y

Ways to spot long-term trends

Frederic  De  Meyer  @  i4fi  

GUT  FEEL  

Sophistication

Acc

urac

y

Ways to spot long-term trends

Frederic  De  Meyer  @  i4fi  

GUT  FEEL  

Sta5s5cal  certain5es  

…Statistical certainty? Here is a bold prediction…

Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers

…prepare for future threats…

…prepare for future threats…

…prepare for future threats…

Limited customer dialogue

Product focused

Branch Separate channels

Digital

Fast time to market

Omni channel

Customer centric

Data driven

Intuitive apps

Real time

…prepare for future threats…

…prepare for future opportunities…

…prepare for future opportunities…

…prepare for future opportunities…

…align your business to the future…

…room for innovation…

…room for innovation…

…room for innovation…

external

internal

new competitors

new business models

new needs of customers

new customer segments

new talents and competencies

new marketing mix

new ecosystems

new go-to-market models

new production processes

megatrends!

…sharpen your strategy by understanding these trends

#2 discuss Megatrends internally

#3 draw conclusions and recommendations

#4 Communicate results internally and externally

#1 identify Megatrends to discuss

Mega  trends  

A way to assess these long-term trends

one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...

an increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend

a worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend

and the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends

What are megatrends?

•  long-lasting (>10 years)

•  amplifying

•  cause disruptive shift

•  have a global impact

•  not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby  

My ‘rules of thumb’

The power of exchanging views and opinions

Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers

•  Demographic trends –  Growing world population –  Ageing population –  Migration patterns –  Urbanization –  Gap rich-poor –  Generation Y –  Generation Z –  War for talent

•  Environment and sustainability

–  Climate change –  Scarce resources –  Peak oil –  Water shortage –  Food stress –  Clean energy –  Smart cities –  Bio materials –  New materials –  Cradle-to-cradle –  Biomimicry –  Urban farming –  Eco activism –  New urban models

•  Geopolitical trends –  Power shift –  Globalization 3.0 –  Rising middle class –  Energy dependence –  The Market State

•  Consumer & societal trends

–  Mass customization –  Ethical buying –  ‘Buy local’ –  Social & Group buying –  Personalization –  Sharing economy –  Radical transparency –  Massive Open Online Courses

(MOOCs) –  Personal Health –  Digital divide –  Virtual Currencies –  Blockchain technology –  New jobs

•  Technology trends –  Big Data/ data science –  Internet of Things (IoT) –  Augmented Reality –  Consumerization of IT (BYOD) –  Technology ‘as a Service’ –  Home 3D printing –  Business 3D printing –  Drones for business –  Bioprinting –  Enhanced Humans –  Wearable Technologies

•  Business trends –  Life Cycle Assessment –  Disintermediation –  Crowdsourcing & funding –  Open innovation –  Gamification –  Corporate Social Responsibility

(CSR) –  Cause Marketing –  Social Business Innovation –  Social entrepreneurs –  Intrapreneurship –  Businesses get social –  Holacracy –  Business as a platform –  Virtualization of the corporation

MY FAVORITES FOR THE MOMENT

In 2008 climate change was responsible for 20M migrants, on the long run this number will grow to 200M

A new golden age for materials: ‘smart’ material can heal themselves, things can be built atom by atom, light materials get stronger and stronger, …

Many architects are radically rethinking our urban models in preparation of climate change

RETURN TO MENU

Blockchain has the potential to decentralize and transform transactions, making them more efficient, participative and scalable

The worldwide 3D printer market will experience growth from 2012 to 2017, with compound annual growth rates of 59% and 29%, respectively (IDC)

65% of current students will later be working in jobs that do not exist yet

THE NEW NORMAL IN BUSINESS

Teaser: what would be the advantage if planes would land upside down?  

On Amazon marketplace you will often find (new) products at a substantially lower price compared to Amazon’s. Cannibalization? Probably, even if Amazon gets a commission on each transaction. On the other hand, this move has probably limited the number of emerging copycats of Amazon’s business !

If your market is declining you might as well sell directly to your competitors… Peugeot’s Expert vans will be sold as Toyotas as from mid 2013, competing with the same van… of Peugeot !

sell your products to your competitors, and let them sell it under their brand…

Admittedly, ‘multibranding’ is anything but new. Procter & Gamble has used this technique for years. But what if it was applied to other industries? Telecom operator KPN, for instance, offers mobile services through 5 different brands on the Dutch market. No doubt this comes at an additional cost. That’s okay just as long as you get a bigger piece of the pie… (no guarantee though)

why not compete with yourself?

Most businesses will face competition from new business models developed by startups… so why wouldn’t you embrace them, by serving as an incubator (the cheap way) or invest in them in very early stage (the risky way)?

you can invite your future competitors to join you!

In virtually every industry, agility will be key to strengthen your competitive position. Most likely you will need to adapt your organizational model (and your culture, processes, employee profiles, etc) in order to become and remain agile. Easier said than done, but vital nevertheless…

Source:  agile2lean.blogspot.be  

innovate your organisational model

www.fredericdemeyer.com

the age of platforms

www.fredericdemeyer.com

the age of platforms

www.fredericdemeyer.com

the age of platforms

Limited customer dialogue

Product focused

Branch Separate channels

Digital

Fast time to market

Omni channel

Customer centric

Data driven

Intuitive apps

Real time

the age of platforms

the age of platforms

www.fredericdemeyer.com

the age of intrapreneurship

www.fredericdemeyer.com

the age of intrapreneurship

www.fredericdemeyer.com

the age of intrapreneurship

Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers

#1: read a(n awful) lot

#2: read even more…

#3: follow the start-up scene

#4: get efficient in researching evidence

#5: look for patterns and links

#6: constantly ask yourself “what does it mean?”

#7: build a (strong) opinion

•  “In 20 years we will all be freelancers”

•  “The role of government will become obsolete in 50 years”

•  “Sustainable future will be driven by population, not government(s)”

#8: communicate… extensively!

Write articles for media friends

+240K views +900 downloads  

Slideshare works

Blogs still work (for now)

Special mention…

Usual suspects

#9: look for role models (but remain yourself)

#10: offer things for free

ü   charity    ü   non-­‐profit  ü   audience  of  poten6al  clients  ü   exis6ng  clients  ü   conferences  I  would  have  paid  for  to  a<end  

#11: but not everything…

60 Megatrend Fact Sheets

(briefing document for long -term planning and innovation sessions)

@fdemeyer

frederic@i4fi.com

fredericdemeyer.com

Instituteforfutureinsights

fdemeyer

#12: be patient…

2 years lead time

if you want revenue out of your efforts

…be patient

if you want glory out of your efforts

…don’t

but never give up!

…never

after all…

…you’re having the best job on earth

www.i4fi.com  www.fredericdemeyer.com  

@fdemeyer    

addi6onal  ques6ons:  frederic@i4fi.com  

Thank  you!  

If you are not ashamed looking back at what you did 6 months ago, you’re doing it wrong…

Don’t aim for control. If you think you control your business, it means you’re not going fast enough…

Don’t take any advise of people who never been entrepreneurs themselves…

No matter what you do… have fun!