Hogeschool gent 2016 publication
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Transcript of Hogeschool gent 2016 publication
Using long-term trend assessment in business strategy
@fdemeyer
fredericdemeyer.com
Instituteforfutureinsights
fdemeyer
my background
my 20’s
my 30’s
my 40’s
my 50’s
helping you anticipate the future
???
I admit, I am a futurist…
But what does it mean?
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." Marshal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers” Thomas Watson (IBM) 1943
“640k ought to be enough for anybody” Bill Gates, 1981
…Seeing beyond the paradigm is extremely difficult, but not impossible…
Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers
Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to assess the future
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
…just by walking around…
…is this an indication of a trend towards URBAN FARMING?
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
…mass customization is spreading to many consumer products…
…what if it would apply to other industries?
Health Care Retail
Education Energy
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
Banks Music Press
…what do we see?
Banks Music Press
…we are witnessing a growing trend to desintermediation…
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
Pa5ents now have limitless ways to be as knowledgeable as the
doctor (mass) Customiza5on of health care
becomes the new paradigm
Open source pharma challenges the current business R&D model
New market for DIY health (9000 Apple apps for personal health
care)
…look at what is happening in health care…
Patients now have limitless ways to be as knowledgeable
as the doctor (mass) Customization of health care
becomes the new paradigm
Open source pharma challenges the current business R&D model
New market for DIY health (9000 Apple apps for personal
health care)
…the future? Health provision ‘as a service’…
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
…the power of system thinking…
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
Sophistication
Acc
urac
y
Ways to spot long-term trends
Frederic De Meyer @ i4fi
GUT FEEL
Sta5s5cal certain5es
…Statistical certainty? Here is a bold prediction…
Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers
…prepare for future threats…
…prepare for future threats…
…prepare for future threats…
Limited customer dialogue
Product focused
Branch Separate channels
Digital
Fast time to market
Omni channel
Customer centric
Data driven
Intuitive apps
Real time
…prepare for future threats…
…prepare for future opportunities…
…prepare for future opportunities…
…prepare for future opportunities…
…align your business to the future…
…room for innovation…
…room for innovation…
…room for innovation…
external
internal
new competitors
new business models
new needs of customers
new customer segments
new talents and competencies
new marketing mix
new ecosystems
new go-to-market models
new production processes
megatrends!
…sharpen your strategy by understanding these trends
#2 discuss Megatrends internally
#3 draw conclusions and recommendations
#4 Communicate results internally and externally
#1 identify Megatrends to discuss
Mega trends
A way to assess these long-term trends
one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends
What are megatrends?
• long-lasting (>10 years)
• amplifying
• cause disruptive shift
• have a global impact
• not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby
My ‘rules of thumb’
The power of exchanging views and opinions
Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers
• Demographic trends – Growing world population – Ageing population – Migration patterns – Urbanization – Gap rich-poor – Generation Y – Generation Z – War for talent
• Environment and sustainability
– Climate change – Scarce resources – Peak oil – Water shortage – Food stress – Clean energy – Smart cities – Bio materials – New materials – Cradle-to-cradle – Biomimicry – Urban farming – Eco activism – New urban models
• Geopolitical trends – Power shift – Globalization 3.0 – Rising middle class – Energy dependence – The Market State
• Consumer & societal trends
– Mass customization – Ethical buying – ‘Buy local’ – Social & Group buying – Personalization – Sharing economy – Radical transparency – Massive Open Online Courses
(MOOCs) – Personal Health – Digital divide – Virtual Currencies – Blockchain technology – New jobs
• Technology trends – Big Data/ data science – Internet of Things (IoT) – Augmented Reality – Consumerization of IT (BYOD) – Technology ‘as a Service’ – Home 3D printing – Business 3D printing – Drones for business – Bioprinting – Enhanced Humans – Wearable Technologies
• Business trends – Life Cycle Assessment – Disintermediation – Crowdsourcing & funding – Open innovation – Gamification – Corporate Social Responsibility
(CSR) – Cause Marketing – Social Business Innovation – Social entrepreneurs – Intrapreneurship – Businesses get social – Holacracy – Business as a platform – Virtualization of the corporation
MY FAVORITES FOR THE MOMENT
In 2008 climate change was responsible for 20M migrants, on the long run this number will grow to 200M
A new golden age for materials: ‘smart’ material can heal themselves, things can be built atom by atom, light materials get stronger and stronger, …
Many architects are radically rethinking our urban models in preparation of climate change
RETURN TO MENU
Blockchain has the potential to decentralize and transform transactions, making them more efficient, participative and scalable
The worldwide 3D printer market will experience growth from 2012 to 2017, with compound annual growth rates of 59% and 29%, respectively (IDC)
65% of current students will later be working in jobs that do not exist yet
THE NEW NORMAL IN BUSINESS
Teaser: what would be the advantage if planes would land upside down?
On Amazon marketplace you will often find (new) products at a substantially lower price compared to Amazon’s. Cannibalization? Probably, even if Amazon gets a commission on each transaction. On the other hand, this move has probably limited the number of emerging copycats of Amazon’s business !
If your market is declining you might as well sell directly to your competitors… Peugeot’s Expert vans will be sold as Toyotas as from mid 2013, competing with the same van… of Peugeot !
sell your products to your competitors, and let them sell it under their brand…
Admittedly, ‘multibranding’ is anything but new. Procter & Gamble has used this technique for years. But what if it was applied to other industries? Telecom operator KPN, for instance, offers mobile services through 5 different brands on the Dutch market. No doubt this comes at an additional cost. That’s okay just as long as you get a bigger piece of the pie… (no guarantee though)
why not compete with yourself?
Most businesses will face competition from new business models developed by startups… so why wouldn’t you embrace them, by serving as an incubator (the cheap way) or invest in them in very early stage (the risky way)?
you can invite your future competitors to join you!
In virtually every industry, agility will be key to strengthen your competitive position. Most likely you will need to adapt your organizational model (and your culture, processes, employee profiles, etc) in order to become and remain agile. Easier said than done, but vital nevertheless…
Source: agile2lean.blogspot.be
innovate your organisational model
www.fredericdemeyer.com
the age of platforms
www.fredericdemeyer.com
the age of platforms
www.fredericdemeyer.com
the age of platforms
Limited customer dialogue
Product focused
Branch Separate channels
Digital
Fast time to market
Omni channel
Customer centric
Data driven
Intuitive apps
Real time
the age of platforms
the age of platforms
www.fredericdemeyer.com
the age of intrapreneurship
www.fredericdemeyer.com
the age of intrapreneurship
www.fredericdemeyer.com
the age of intrapreneurship
Ways to assess the future What it means for businesses Which trends to follow? Advise to (aspiring) trend watchers
#1: read a(n awful) lot
#2: read even more…
#3: follow the start-up scene
#4: get efficient in researching evidence
#5: look for patterns and links
#6: constantly ask yourself “what does it mean?”
#7: build a (strong) opinion
• “In 20 years we will all be freelancers”
• “The role of government will become obsolete in 50 years”
• “Sustainable future will be driven by population, not government(s)”
#8: communicate… extensively!
Write articles for media friends
+240K views +900 downloads
Slideshare works
Blogs still work (for now)
Special mention…
Usual suspects
#9: look for role models (but remain yourself)
#10: offer things for free
ü charity ü non-‐profit ü audience of poten6al clients ü exis6ng clients ü conferences I would have paid for to a<end
#11: but not everything…
60 Megatrend Fact Sheets
(briefing document for long -term planning and innovation sessions)
@fdemeyer
fredericdemeyer.com
Instituteforfutureinsights
fdemeyer
#12: be patient…
2 years lead time
if you want revenue out of your efforts
…be patient
if you want glory out of your efforts
…don’t
but never give up!
…never
after all…
…you’re having the best job on earth
If you are not ashamed looking back at what you did 6 months ago, you’re doing it wrong…
Don’t aim for control. If you think you control your business, it means you’re not going fast enough…
Don’t take any advise of people who never been entrepreneurs themselves…
No matter what you do… have fun!