PERSPECTIVAS ECONÓMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
-
Upload
nora-ampudia -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of PERSPECTIVAS ECONÓMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
1/34
^K\Z^KJXDQFZ KJGOMDJFZ 6-6> km~ckfhgz$0
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
13/34
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
14/34
@fcdzjg bf ~k|hdhg jgm~kxdxdqdhfh jgo |kz~kjxg fc |kzxg hkc ~fz#t ko c{if| hk mk`g|f| hk >2 f 6> bkmgz ~k|hdhg ~gzdjdgokzcg v{k dm~fjxf okifxdqfmkoxk ko cf fx|fjjdo hk jf~dxfckz
ofjdgofckz k doxk|ofjdgofckz/
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
68
A{koxk0 Dozxdx{xg Mkrdjfog ~f|f cf Jgm~kxdxdqdhfh F/J
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
15/34
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
6;
I[FHFCF@F\F0 Mk`g|f
odjfmkoxk ko igldk|og/Hk|kjbg t mkhdg fmldkoxk#~k|g z{ ohdjk hkjgm~kxdxdqdhfh zdi{k zdkohglf`g/
I[FHFCF@F\F/ Hkxk|dg|g ko06/ Kjgogmf/
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
16/34
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
61
Kc igldk|og kzxfxfc xdkok {o mkog| mf|iko hk mfodgl|fadofojdk|f
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
17/34
Fc Di{fc v{k Mrdjgo{kzx|f ~|dojd~fchkldcdhfh zk
koj{kox|f koo{kzx|f hk~kohkojdfko {o zgcg mk|jfhgKzxfhgz [odhgz"9
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
18/34
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
62
Bf j|kjdhg o{kzx|f ~f|xdjd~fjdo hkox|g hkc xgxfc ofjdgofc hkkr~g|xfjdgokz k dm~g|xfjdgokz ~k|g kz mz hdomdjg kczkjxg| dm~g|xfhg|# cg v{k ikok|f {o kohk{hfmdkoxg ko
hcf|kz ~f|f cf kjgogmf hk @fcdzjg/ Cf ~|kzdo zgl|k cfa{koxk hk hdqdzfz zk qk jgm~kozfhf ~g| cfz |kmkzfz/
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
19/34
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
64
Cf j|kfjdo hk km~ckgz ag|mfckz "fzki{|fhgz$ kz mkogzhdomdjf v{k cf ofjdgofc# t bkmgz dhg ~k|hdkohg ~f|xdjd~fjdoh{|foxk kc 66/ Kccg ikok|f {o mk|jfhg cflg|fc hldc t ~g| cg
xfoxg {o jgoz{mg di{fc/
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
20/34
HKZGJ[^FJDO
Kc odqkc hkzgj{~fjdo zkbf doj|kmkoxfhg# ogcgi|f xgmf| odqkckz~|kqdgz f cf j|dzdz# tm{kzx|f {of xkohkojdfbfjdf kc doj|kmkoxg ~g|kojdmf hkc ~|gmkhdgofjdgofc# zdo kmlf|ig kchkzkm~kg kz mk`g|v{k ko kc H/A/ t kc kzxfhghk Mrdjg/
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kpA{koxk0 DOKID
>
6
>;'>
:
>;'>
4
>1'>
:
>1'>
4
>9'>
:
>9'>
4
>2'>
:
>2'>
4
>4'>
:
>4'>
4
6>'>
:
6>'>
4
66'>
:
66'>
4
^G\JKOXF@K
XFZF HK HKZGJ[^FJDO^\GMKHDG MGQDC
Hdzx|dxg Akhk|fc
@fcdzjg
Mrdjg
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
21/34
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
22/34
Hdzmdo{jdo hkcz{lkm~ckg# ~k|g foog cckifmgz f odqkckz
~|k j|dzdz/Og zk f~|gqkjbfo cfzjf~fjdhfhkz thkzx|kpfz hk cgz
~|gakzdgodzxfz t cgzx|flf`fhg|kz koikok|fc/
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
23/34
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
24/34
DOH[ZX\DF CDIFHF F CFKR^G\XFJDO
Jgoxdo{f kckzxfojfmdkoxg ko cfmfo{afjx{|f hk
kr~g|xfjdo# ~k|gtf og bft {o mftg|hkxk|dg|g/
DOKID/ Kzxfhzxdjf Mkoz{fc hkc ^|gi|fmf hk cf Doh{zx|df Mfo{afjx{|k|f# Mfv{dcfhg|ft hk Zk|qdjdgz hk Kr~g|xfjdo/
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
25/34
@FCDZJGMFO[AFJX[\F
Kc zkjxg|mfo{afjx{|k|g
m{kzx|f|kj{~k|fjdo# ogcgi|fohg fcjfopf|odqkckz ~|k j|dzdz#t z{ xkohkojdf
m{kzx|fj|kjdmdkoxg m{tmghk|fhg/
4>
6>>
66>
6
6:>
68>
>:'>6
>:'>9
>
8'>6~
'
>8'>9
>;'>6
>;'>9
>1'>6
>1'>9
>9'>6
>9'>9
>2'>6
>2'>9
>4'>6
>4'>9
6>'>6
6>'>9
66'>6
66'>9
DOHDJK ^\GH[JJDO MFO[AFJX[\K\F
@fcdzjg
Cdokfc "@fcdzjg$
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
26/34
Hkzhk cf j|dzdz kczkjxg| hk cfjgozx|{jjdo~k|mfokjk mz ldko
kzxfojfhg# jgo {ofckqk xkohkojdf bfjdf cf|kj{~k|fjdo/
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
/>
8/>
1/>
2/>
6>/>
6
^k|dghg
>1'>:
>1'>1
>1'>4
>1'69'>:
>9'>1
>9'>4
>9'62'>:
>2'>1
>2'>4
>2'64'>:
>4'>1
>4'>4
>4'6'>:
6>'>1
6>'>4
6>'61
66'>4
^G\J
KOXF@K
JGOZX\[JJDO @FCDZJG ^F\XDJD^FJDOXGXFC OFJDGOFC
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
27/34
Kc igldk|og kzxfxfc bfdm~{czfhg cfjgozx|{jjdo t bkmgzifofhg ~f|xdjd~fjdo
hkox|g hkc xgxfcofjdgofc hk ag|mfzdiodadjfxdqf#kqdhkoxkmkoxk cgz`{kigz ~fofmk|djfogz
f~g|xf|go m{jbg fczkimkoxg/
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
/>
6/>
:/>
8/>
;/>
1/>
9/>
2/>
4/>
^k|dghg
>1'>:
>1'>1
>1'>4
>1'69'>:
>9'>1
>9'>4
>9'62'>:
>2'>1
>2'>4
>2'64'>:
>4'>1
>4'>4
>4'6'>:
6>'>1
6>'>4
6>'61
66'>4
^G\
JKOXF@K
JGOZX\[JJDO ZKJXG\ ^LCDJG @FCDZJG^G\JKOXF@K XGXFC OFJDGOFC
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
28/34
^g| z{ ~f|xk kc zkjxg|~|dqfhg m{kzx|f~kzdmdzmg# t bkmgz~k|hdhg ~f|xdjd~fjdo
f odqkc ofjdgofc# hkzhkcf j|dzdz kzxk zkjxg|~k|mfokjk kzxfojfhg
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
/>
8/>
1/>
2/>
6>/>
6
68/>
^k|dghg
>1'>:
>1'>1
>1'>4
>1'69'>:
>9'>1
>9'>4
>9'62'>:
>2'>1
>2'>4
>2'64'>:
>4'>1
>4'>4
>4'6'>:
6>'>1
6>'>4
6>'61
66'>4
Xx{cghkck`k
JGOZX\[JJDO ZKJXG\ ^\DQFHG +XGXFC OFJDGOFC
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
29/34
Cf ~glcfjdo hk @fcdzjgkz a{k|xkmkoxkhk~kohdkoxk hk cfz|kmkzfz# h{|foxk
66 kcjgm~g|xfmdkoxgmk`g| ~g| cfhk~|kjdfjdo hkc ~kzg#kc j|kjdmdkoxg h{|foxk
6< zki{|fmkoxkzk| mghk|fhg/
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
;/;
1/>
1/;
9/>
9/;
2/>
2/;
4/>
4/;
6>/>
>:'>6
>:'>:
>8'>6
>8'>:
>;'>6
>;'>:
>1'>6
>1'>:
>9'>6
>9'>:
>2'>6
>2'>:
>4'>6
>4'>:
6>'>6
6>'>:
66'>6
66'>:
^G\
JKOXF@K
\KMKZFZ @FCDZJG ^G\JKOXF@K HKC XGXFCOFJDGOFC
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
30/34
JGMK\JDG
Cf pgof mkx|g~gcdxfofhk I{fhfcf`f|fm{kzx|f {of mk`g|hdofmdzmg ko kcjgmk|jdg fc mko{hkg#jgo xkohkojdf ~gzdxdqf/
Kc jgmk|jdg fc mftg|kgm{kzx|f {o mftg||kpfig# ~k|g|kz~gohk|~gzdxdqfmkoxk fc~|dmk|g h{|foxk 6
Kc jgmk|jdg ko I{fhfcf`f|f kz {of fjxdqdhfh m{tHdomdjf/
A{koxk0 DOKID
9>
2>
4>
6>>
66>
6
6:>
68>
>6'>6
>6'>9
>9
>:'>6
>:'>9
>8'>6
>8'>9
>;'>6
>;'>9
>1'>6
>1'>9
>9'>6
>9'>9
>2'>6
>2'>9
>4'>6~
'
>4'>9
6>'>6
6>'>9
66'>6
66'>9
DOHDJK
QKOXFZ MFTG\KG
ohdjk ikok|fc qkoxfz mftg|kg Dohdjk ikok|fc qkoxfz mftg|kg IHC
9>4>
66>
6:>
6;>
69>
64>
>6'>6
>6'>9
>9
>:'>6
>:'>9
>8'>6
>8'>9
>;'>6
>;'>9
>1'>6
>1'>9
>9'>6
>9'>9
>2'>6
>2'>9
>4'>6~
'
>4'>9
6>'>6
6>'>9
66'>6
66'>9
Xx{cghkck`k
QKOXFZ MKO[HKG
ohdjk ikok|fc qkoxfz mko{hkg
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
31/34
DOQK\ZDO KRX\FO@K\FHD\KJXF
@fcdzjg zk ~gzdjdgofjgmg a{koxk hkhkzxdog ko cf doqk|zdokrx|fo`k|f# f ~kzf| hk
cf |kjkzdo# cgzdoqk|zdgodzxfzkrx|fo`k|g qko i|fo~gxkojdfc ko o{kzx|gmk|jfhg# ko kz~kjdfc
kc x{|zxdjg/
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp
:6
>
>
8>>
1>>
2>>6>>>
6>
68>>
61>>
62>>
>
;>>>
6>>>>
6;>>>
>>>
>>
:>>>>
:;>>>
>>
>6
>:
>8
>;
>1
>9
>2
>4
6>
MDCCGOKZHK
HCF\KZ
DOQK\ZDO KRX\FO@K\F HD\KJXF
XGXFC
@FCDZJG
>/>
6/>
:/>
8/>;/>
1/>
9/>
2/>
4/>
>> >6 >< >: >8 >; >1 >9 >2 >4 6>
DOQK\ZDO KRX\FO@K\F HD\KJXF @FCDZJG JGMG^G\JKOXF@K XGXFC OFJDGOFC
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
32/34
DOACFJDO @FCDZJG
Cf doacfjdo koI{fhfcf`f|fzdi{k cf mdzmf
xkohkojdf v{k cfofjdgofc# th{|foxk 66mk`g| jgo
|kz~kjxg f cfz~|dojd~fckzjd{hfhkz/
:
6>'>6
>>'>1
>>'66
>6'>8
>6'>4
>9
>;
>:'6>
>8'>:
>8'>2
>;'>6
>;'>1
>;'66
>1'>8
>1'>4
>9'>9'>9
>9'62'>;
>2'6>
>4'>:
>4'>2
6>'>6
6>'>1
6>'66
66'>8
66'>4
DO^J
DOACFJDO FJ[M[CFHF FO[FC
Jd{hfh hk Mrdjg f' I{fhfcf`f|f# @fc/ f' Mgoxk||kt f'
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
33/34
JGOJC[ZDGOKZF odqkc ofjdgofc @fcdzjg bf ~k|hdhg jgm~kxdxdqdhfh# xkokmgzzk|dgz |kpfigz ko cf afjdcdhfh ~f|f bfjk| okigjdgz t ~gok|km~|kzfz# jgo kckqfhgz jgzxgz ko cfz x|fozfjjdgokz/
6< zk| {o fg i|dz zd cf zdx{fjdo hk cf kjgogmfog|xkfmk|djfof og mk`g|f# m{t ~f|kjdhg fc 66/
Krdzxk {o j|kjdkoxk hkxk|dg|g hkc mk|jfhg doxk|og ~|gh{jxg hkchkldcdxfmdkoxg hk cf mfo{afjx{|f# cgz zfcf|dgz t kc km~ckg/
Kc igldk|og okjkzdxf koagjf| |kj{|zgz ko kckqf| cf jgm~kxdxdqdhfhf x|fqz hk cf hkadodjdo hk cf qgjfjdo ~|gh{jxdqf hk z{z
|kidgokz t m{odjd~dgz jgo cgz f~gtgz hk cgizxdjf okjkzf|df/
Kc zkjxg| fi|g~kj{f|dg okjkzdxf {o mftg| f~gtg ~f|f zgzxkok|z{z fcxgz odqkckz hk jgm~kxdxdqdhfh/
Cgz `qkokz okjkzdxfo mz jkox|gz hk kzx{hdg {odqk|zdxf|dgz tg~g|x{odhfhkz hk km~ckg/Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f/ Og|f J/ Fm~{hdfM|v{kp ::
-
8/2/2019 PERSPECTIVAS ECONMICAS 2012 JAL NAMPUDIA
34/34
I\FJDFZ&
yyy/afjxg|kjgogmdjg/jgmH\F/ OG\F J/ FM^[HDF M\V[KP
KZJ[KCF HK JDKOJDFZ KJGOMDJFZT KM^\KZF\DFCKZ/
Kcflg|fhg ~g| H|f Og|f J Fm~{hdf :8