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Equity Research

United States

Banc of America Securities

Please see the important disclosures and analyst certification on page 5 of this report. BAS does andseeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Earnings ChangeHomebuilding

Toll Brothers, Inc.Raising 2006 Estimate and Target on Delivery Growth andMargin Expansion

June 27, 2005

TOL: $98.30

BUYVolatility: High

12-Month Target: $113.00Total Return to Target: 15.0%

Daniel Oppenheim, CFA(212) 847-5733

[email protected]

Michael R. Wood, CFA(212) [email protected]

Top PicksT icker Rat in g Pri ce T ar get

DHI B $35.65 $46.00

Increasing target price and estimates. We are raising our 2006 EPSestimate to $12.00 (from $11.35). Our target price is now $113.00 (from$107.00) based on 9.4x estimated 2006 earnings. We continue to rate TollBuy based on our expectation of upward trending estimates based on

continued margin expansion and strong delivery growth.

Strong price appreciation to result in higher margins. We expect grossmargins to rise by over 360 basis points to 32.1% in 2005 and an additional50 basis points to 32.6% in 2006 due to the higher prices reported in ordersfor the first half of 2005, as the average order price increased 12.4% ascompared with 1H/04.

Increased scale to aid margins. We expect gross margins to increasethroughout the year as a result of increased operating efficiencies. Weexpect Toll to deliver 8,500 homes in 2005 (up 28.1% from 2004) and thatthe greater scale will result in incremental operating efficiencies.

Valuation and Target Price Analysis: Our target price of $113.00 (up from$107.00) is based on a multiple of 9.4x our 2006 EPS estimate of $12.00.

HOV B $62.26 $74.00

Least FavoritesSP F* N $83.59 $90.00CTX* N $68.15 $76.00

Sector View: We see upside in the homebuilders based on the positivesecular trends and reasonable valuations, which should offset the challengesfrom modestly rising rates.

Sector Price Appreciation Potential (Median of Target Price): 17% B = Buy, N = Neutral, S = Sel l , * = New Pick

Company Data FYE Oct 2004A 2005E 2006E52-Week Range $107-37 EPSSecular Growth (EPS) 13% Q1 (Jan) $0.62 $1.33A

Market Cap. $8,326.0 MM Q2 (Apr) 0.89 2.01A Avg. Dai ly Vol. 2,505,182 Q3 (Jul) 1.31 2.38EDebt/Cap. (01/05) 42.1% Q4 (Oct) 2.22 3.06E

Est. Dividend/Y ield None Fiscal Year $5.04 $8.77 $12.00

Previous $11.35FAS 123 Adj.* $4.82 $8.56 $11.78

Index Data Calendar Yr $5.04 $8.77 $12.00

DJIA 10298 P/E 19.5 11.2 8.2S&P 500 1191 P/E/G 150% 86% 63%

* These estimates adjusted to account for FAS 123, Expensing of Employee Stock Options.

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Daniel Oppenheim, CFA (212) 847-5733 Toll Brothers, Inc.1

Earnings Estimates

Non-AdjustedEarnings Estimates

Earnings EstimatesAdjusted for FAS 123

FYE Oct 2004 A 2005 E 2006 E 2004A 2005 E 2006 EEP SQ1 (Jan) $0.62 $1.33A $0.57 $1.27AQ2 (Apr) 0.89 2.01A 0.83 1.95A

Q3 (Jul) 1.31 2.38E 1.25 2.32E

Q4 (Oct) 2.22 3.06E 2.16 3.00E

Fiscal Year $5.04 $8.77 $12.00 $4.82 $8.56 $11.78

Calendar Yr $5.04 $8.77 $12.00 $4.82 $8.56 $11.78P/E 19.5 11.2 8.2 20.4 11.5 8.3P/E/G 150% 86% 63% 157% 88% 64%

Summary and Investment Conclusion

Order growth likely to remain strong and result in strong delivery growth in 2006.We expect order growth of 18.3% in the second half of 2005 and 23.9% for the full year.This is higher than all other companies that we cover (the next highest is Pulte Homes at16.4% order growth in 2005). We think Tolls strong land pipeline with 68,000 lotscontrolled and its expertise in municipal zoning issues will allow the company tocontinue to generate strong community growth and continued order growth. This ordergrowth should translate into 24.1% delivery growth in 2006 (up from our prior estimateof 17.4%).

Strong price appreciation to result in higher margins. We expect gross margins to riseby over 360 basis points to 32.1% in 2005 and an additional 50 basis points to 32.6% in2006 due to the higher prices reported in orders for the first half of 2005, as the averageorder price increased 12.4% compared with 1H/04.

Market presence limits risk. We think that Tolls modest level of reliance on marketswhere affordability is stretched limits the risk in the event of a slowdown in the housing

market. Less that 15% of Tolls deliveries occur in the twelve markets whereaffordability is now more stretched than at any other time in the past 15 years. Theremainder of the homebuilders that we cover average approximately 30% of deliveries inthese stretched markets.

Increased scale to aid margins. We expect gross margins to increase throughout theyear as a result of increased operating efficiencies. We expect Toll to deliver 8,500homes in 2005 (up 28.1% from 2004) and that the greater scale will result in incrementaloperating efficiencies.

Increasing target price and estimates. We are raising our 2006 EPS estimate to $12.00(from $11.35). Our target price is now $113.00 (from $107.00) based on 9.4x estimated2006 earnings. We continue to rate Toll Buy based on our expectation of upwardtrending estimates based on continued margin expansion and strong delivery growth.

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Toll Brothers, Inc. Daniel Oppenheim, CFA (212) 847-57332

Investment Thesis

We rate Toll Brothers Buy with a $113.00 target price. Toll is the fifteenth largesthomebuilder in the country (in terms of number of homes sold in 2004). The companybuilds homes in 20 states and 44 markets throughout the country with concentrations inthe Mid-Atlantic, California, and the Northeast. Toll ranks eleventh in total revenues as aresult of having the highest average price point among large builders of $641,000 in themost recent quarter. We are confident in our above-consensus estimates for 74% EPSgrowth in 2005 and 37% in 2006 and expect the stock to move higher as consensusestimates move closer to our estimates. In addition, we expect to see improved ROIC andimproved earnings growth as a result of the companys increased focus on inventoryturnover and capital efficiency by increasing the productivity of its subcontractor baseand greater use of options.

Our 12-month price target of $113.00 implies a total return of 15.0%. Our pricetarget for Toll Brothers is based on our fiscal 2006 earnings per share estimate of $12.00and a target multiple of 9.4x, an 18% premium to the target multiple of 8.0x for thehomebuilding industry. The target multiple for the industry is in-line with the average

multiple of 8.0x from 1998-present. Our $113.00 target for Toll Brothers represents apotential total return of 15.0%.

Toll has a focus on theluxury market and hasthe longest land supplyin the industry

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Toll Brothers Earnings Model

Toll Brothers, Inc.Annual Financial Results and Projections

10/31/99 10/31/00 10/31/01 10/31/02 10/31/03 10/31/04 10/31/05 10/31/06

(amounts in millions) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006ERevenuesHome sales 1,438 1,763 2,180 2,279 2,731 3,839 5,539 7,361

Land sales 17 39 28 36 27 22 29 43Equity earnings in unconsolidated entities 0 3 7 2 1 16 12 34Interest and other 9 9 15 12 16 15 34 32Total Revenues 1,464 1,814 2,230 2,329 2,775 3,893 5,614 7,470Costs and expensesHome sales (1,118) (1,337) (1,602) (1,655) (1,977) (2,747) (3,763) (4,963)Land sales (13) (30) (21) (26) (18) (16) (21) (21)Selling, general and administrative (130) (170) (210) (236) (288) (381) (517) (680)Interest (40) (46) (58) (65) (73) (93) (114) (152)Expenses related to early retirement of debt 0 0 0 0 (7) (8) 0 0

Total costs and expenses (1,301) (1,583) (1,892) (1,982) (2,364) (3,246) (4,415) (5,817)Income before income taxes 163 231 338 347 411 647 1,200 1,654

Income taxes (60) (85) (124) (127) (151) (238) (456) (628)Net income 103 146 214 220 260 409 744 1,025

extraordinary loss (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net income after extraordinary loss 102 146 214 220 260 409 744 1,025

Earnings per share - Diluted 1.38 1.95 2.76 2.91 3.44 5.04 8.77 12.00

Weighted average number of sharesBasic 73 73 72 70 71 74 77 77Diluted 75 75 77 75 76 81 85 85

Fair Value adjustment for stock-based compensation (15) (15) (17)FAS123r adjusted diluted EPS 2.72 3.25 4.82

Source: Company reports, Banc of America Securi t ies LLC est imates.

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Toll Brothers, Inc.Quarterly Financial Results and Projections

1/31/04 4/30/04 7/31/04 10/31/04 1/31/05 4/30/05 7/31/05 10/31/05(amounts in millions) 1Q 2004A 2Q 2004A 3Q 2004 4Q 2004 1Q 2005 2Q 2005 3Q 2005E 4Q 2005ERevenuesHome sales 590 814 991 1,444 989 1,226 1,459 1,865Land sales 6 2 13 2 1 10 13 5Equity earnings in unconsolidated entities 1 1 6 9 2 3 3 4Interest and other 2 2 3 8 7 9 8 10Total Revenues 598 819 1,013 1,463 999 1,248 1,483 1,884Costs and expensesHome sales (422) (585) (709) (1,031) (685) (831) (984) (1,262)Land sales (5) (2) (8) (1) (1) (5) (10) (5)Selling, general and administrative (77) (90) (104) (111) (107) (116) (133) (161)Interest (15) (21) (24) (33) (22) (28) (28) (36)Expenses related to early retirement of debt 0 (8) (0) 0 0 0 0 0Total costs and expenses (519) (705) (845) (1,176) (815) (980) (1,156) (1,463)Income before income taxes 79 115 168 286 184 268 327 421

Income taxes (29) (42) (62) (106) (74) (98) (124) (160)Net income 50 72 106 181 110 170 203 261

extraordinary loss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net income after extraordinary loss 50 72 106 181 110 170 203 261

Earnings per share - Diluted 0.62 0.89 1.31 2.22 1.33 2.01 2.38 3.06Weighted average number of shares

Basic 74 74 74 75 73 77 77 77Diluted 81 81 81 81 83 85 85 85

Fair Value adjustment for stock-based compensation (4) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5)FAS123r adjusted diluted EPS 0.57 0.83 1.25 2.16 1.27 1.96 2.32 3.00

Source: Company reports, Banc of America Securi t ies LLC est imates.

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REG AC - ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe primary research analyst whose name appears in this research report certifies the following: (1) that all of the viewsexpressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities orissuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the

specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in this research report.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Banc of America Securities LLC (BAS) Stock Rating System

The rating system is based on a stock's forward -12-month expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield).The prospective rates of return that help define the Buy, Neutral and Sell ranges are subject to change from time to time,corresponding with changes in prospective rates of return on competing investments. The specific volatility levels thatdivide our stocks into low, medium, high, and extreme ranges are subject to change from time to time, correspondingwith changes in the volatility of benchmark indexes and the companies that comprise them.

Volatility Ratings

Buy Neutral Sell

Low 0%-25% 8%+ 7.9%-(4.9)% (5)% or worseMedium 25%-35% 11%+ 10.9%-(6.9)% (7)% or worseHigh 35%-55% 15%+ 14.9%-(10.9)% (11)% or worseExtreme 55%+ 30%+ 29.9%-(19.9)% (20)% or worse

Source for volatility: Bloomberg.

Rating Distribution*

Global CoverageCoverage Universe Companies Pct. Investment Banking Clients Companies Pct.**

Buy 306 38 Buy 252 82Hold 452 56 Hold 362 80Sell 52 6 Sell 37 71

Consumer SectorCoverage Universe Companies Pct. Investment Banking Clients Companies Pct.**

Buy 57 33 Buy 48 84Hold 104 60 Hold 80 77Sell 13 7 Sell 10 77

* For the purposes of this Rating Distribution, Hold is equivalent to our Neutral rating.** Percentage of companies in each rating group that are investment banking clients.As of 06/01/2005.

The analysts and associates responsible for preparing this research report receive compensation that is based on various

factors, including BASs total revenue, a portion of which is generated by BASs investment banking business. They donot receive compensation based on revenue from any specific investment banking transaction.

BAS prohibits analysts and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or optionsof any company that the analyst covers or that falls within the analysts coverage sector except in limited circumstances(for securities and options acquired prior to July 9, 2002), as permitted by the New York Stock Exchange and the NASD.Stock ownership in the companies mentioned in this report by the analyst who has prepared this report and members ofhis or her household is disclosed below. The absence of such disclosure means that the analyst(s) preparing this report(including members of his or her household) does not have any direct stock ownership in companies mentioned in thisreport. BAS also permits analysts and members of their households to own diversified mutual funds and to maintainfinancial interests in funds and other private investments that may include companies in a sector that the analyst covers ifthe person acquired the financial interest prior to July 9, 2002.

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Company - Specific Disclosures

This company, its subsidiaries and/or its affiliates are (is) or have (has) been a client of BAS in the previous 12 months.During this period, BAS has performed investment banking services for this company, its subsidiaries and/or itsaffiliates and has received compensation for those services: Centex Corporation; D.R. Horton, Inc.; HovnanianEnterprises, Inc.; Standard Pacific Corp..

BAS and/or its affiliates expect(s) to receive, or intend(s) to seek, compensation during the next three months forinvestment banking services from this company, its subsidiaries and/or its affiliates: Toll Brothers, Inc.; CentexCorporation; D.R. Horton, Inc.; Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.; Standard Pacific Corp..

BAS and/or its affiliates acted as a manager of a public offering of debt securities for this company in the previous 12months: Centex Corporation.

BAS and/or its affiliates acted as a co-manager of a public offering of debt securities for this company in the previous 12months: Centex Corporation.

BAS and/or its affiliates acted as a co-manager of a Rule 144A offering of debt securities for this company in theprevious 12 months: Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc..

BAS and/or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company: TollBrothers, Inc..

BAS is affiliated with an NYSE specialist organization that specializes in one or more securities issued by the companieslisted below. This affiliated NYSE specialist organization may make a market in, maintain a long or short position in orbe on the opposite side of orders executed on the Floor of the NYSE in connection with one or more of the securitiesissued by these companies: D.R. Horton, Inc.; Standard Pacific Corp..

This company, its subsidiaries and/or its affiliates are (is) or have (has) been a client of BAS in the previous 12 months.During this period, BAS has performed non-investment banking securities-related services for this company, itssubsidiaries and/or its affiliates and has received compensation for those services: Toll Brothers, Inc.; CentexCorporation; D.R. Horton, Inc.; Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.; Standard Pacific Corp..

This company, its subsidiaries and/or its affiliates are (is) or have (has) been a client of BAS in the previous 12 months.During this period, BAS has performed non-securities services for this company, its subsidiaries and/or its affiliates andhas received compensation for those services: Toll Brothers, Inc.; Centex Corporation; D.R. Horton, Inc.; HovnanianEnterprises, Inc.; Standard Pacific Corp..

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Target Price, Valuation Method, Risk Factors

Target Price: $113.00

Valuation Method Used ToReach Target Price:

Our target price of $113.00 is based on a multiple of 9.4x our 2006 EPS estimate of$12.00.

Risk Factors:1 Higher mortgage interest rates could impact housing demand and homebuilders negatively.

2 Lower consumer confidence, higher unemployment or tightened mortgage lending standards could crimp theability of Toll Brothers customers to purchase homes.

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Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV)



Valuation Method Used To

Reach Target Price:

Our $74.00 target price represents a 8.0x multiple of our calendar 2006 EPS estimate

of $9.20.

Risk Factors:1 Higher mortgage interest rates could negatively impact homebuilding demand and homebuilding stocks.

2 Lower consumer confidence, higher unemployment or tightened mortgage lending standards could crimp theability of Hovnanian's customers to purchase homes.

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)




Our target price of $46.00 is based on a multiple of 8.6x our calendar 2006 EPSestimate of $5.30.

Risk Factors:1 Lower consumer confidence, higher unemployment or tightened mortgage lending standards could crimp the

ability of consumers to purchase homes.2 Higher mortgage interest rates could impact business and homebuilding stocks negatively

Centex Corporation (CTX)




Our $76.00 target price represents a 7.2x multiple of our calendar 2006 EPS estimateof $10.52.


2 Lower consumer confidence, higher unemployment or tightened mortgage lending standards could crimp theability of Centex's customers to purchase homes.

Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF)




Our target price of $90.00 is based on a multiple of 6.8x our 2006 EPS estimate of$13.20.


2 Lower consumer confidence, higher unemployment or tightened mortgage lending standards could crimp theability of Standard Pacific's customers to purchase homes.

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