Literatuur en Manual

Handleiding

bij seminars en trainingen over

planning en beleid voor

optimaal landgebruik in het kader van

grootschalige infrastructurele werken

in Suriname, 2013

2

Samenstelling, redactie en verzorging:

Pitou van Dijck en Marinella Wallis,

februari 2013

3

INHOUDSOPGAVE

Over de auteurs p. 4

Deel 1: Land Use: Analysis and Policies.

1. Land use pressures, expanding transport infrastructure and planning for

sus-‐tainable development in the Amazon Basin, Rudolf Buitelaar, José

Javier Gómez en Ricardo Sánchez (ECLAC)

2. Spatial implications on land and resources of new road infrastructure in

Suriname: land use scanner, Mathilde Molendijk, Martin van der Beek

en Ronnie Lassche (VU)

3. Land use scanner exercise and assignment, SPINlab (VU)

4. Literatuur land use change, SPINlab (VU)

5. Opbouw kaart huidig grondgebruik voor land use scanner Suriname,

Martin van der Beek (Object Vision)

6. Geologie van Suriname, een voorstudie voor land use scanner

applicatie, Ronnie Lassche en Mathilde Molendijk (VU)

Deel 2: Strategic Evironmental Assessments (SEAs)

7. The comprehensive and participatory approach of impact assessment:

objectives, potentials and limitations, Pitou van Dijck (CEDLA)

8. Experiences in a policy context: The impact assessment of the Manaus-‐

Porto Velho Hub, Marinella Wallis

9. Impact assessment, stakeholders´ participation and government

policies, Bert van Barneveld

p. 6

p. 28

p. 35

p. 56

p. 59

p. 68

p. 73

p. 106

p. 117

4

Over de auteurs

Bert van Barneveld ([email protected]) is a tropical agriculturalist,

agro-‐ecologist and natural resources specialist. He was the former regional

manager of the DHV Consulting Group of The Netherlands in La Paz, the

international coordinator of the IIRSA Corredor Norte strategic environmen-‐

tal assessment (SEA).

Rudolf Buitelaar was appointed Chief, Local and Regional Development Area, at the

Latin American and Caribbean Institute for Economic and Social Planning

(ILPES) at ECLAC, Santiago de Chile

Martin van der Beek ([email protected]) is an economist, and partner of

Object Vision. Object Vision is a SME that focuses on the design,

development, implementation and support of software tools for spatial

planning and modelling.

Pitou van Dijck ([email protected]) is Associate Professor of Economics at CEDLA.

Ronnie Lassche ([email protected]) is an earth scientist, working at the department

of Regional Economics at the VU University Amsterdam.

Mathilde Molendijk ([email protected]) has a background in cultural

anthropology and GIS. She works at the VU University Amsterdam, Section

Earth and Economics.

Marinella Wallis ([email protected]) is an international policy scientist and

former researcher and editor at CEDLA.

5

Deel 1: Land-‐Use Planning.

6

LAND USE PRESSURES, EXPANDING TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE AND PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AMAZON

BASIN

Rudolf Buitelaar, José Javier Gómez and Ricardo Sánchez (ECLAC)

First draft, February 2013

Literature confirms the intuitive notion that road construction, increasing population

density and improved connectivity to markets are relevant for land-‐use change

processes, as are policy interventions such as the protection of areas for nature

conservation.

This paper aims to provide an overview of the current situation and challenges

regarding land use pressures in the Amazon Basin, given major investments in

transport infrastructure to enhance the physical connectivity, vis-‐a-‐vis planning

instruments for sustainable development, especially land-‐use planning. Are planning

capabilities up to the task?

Different countries, different pressures

The Amazon forest covers 780 million hectares, spreading across 8 countries and

over 12 watersheds. Within those countries, 68 regional governments and thousands

of third and fourth tier local governments and specialized agencies exercise public

authority to promote sustainable development of the region.

This territory is endowed with abundant natural resources. Public investment in

physical and social infrastructure together with private investments especially in

agriculture and extractive industries have spurred increasing population density and

exerted strong pressure to change the land-‐use pattern away from forests. Existing

legal frameworks and institutional capabilities to implement public policies for

sustainable development have not avoided high rates of deforestation. The region

has lost about 3.6 million hectares per year between 2000 and 2010.

Land ownership is of course a key factor. Most of the forest area is state property

but forestry agencies have limited personnel and budget to guarantee law

enforcement and control of forests. Together with deforestation, the degradation of

forests, not yet accurately quantified, is a big challenge in the region (FAO, 2011).

7

With the exception of Brazil, that has developed a sophisticated monitoring system

based on satellite images, there is a lack of information on the impact of

deforestation processes.

The main causes of deforestation are the expansion of the agricultural frontier,

predatory models of timber logging, mining (metallic and non-‐metallic), oil

exploitation, and construction of infrastructure (roads, dams and reservoirs, power

lines), among others. Most of these processes are closely related, bringing about

deforestation cycles. Thus, construction of roads is usually the first stage of a process

that continues with timber logging, cattle ranching, agriculture and the development

of diversified human settlements.

The causes of deforestation vary from country to country, but with different

intensity most of them can be found in all the Amazonian countries, maybe with the

exception of the illegal crops expansion. Livestock production is the main reason for

deforestation in Brazil, considered the most critical of the Amazon, together with

mechanized agriculture (monoculture) and extraction of forest timber. In Bolivia and

Colombia conversion of forest to agricultural land is also the main cause. It is

estimated that over 60% of the area deforested is initially intended for livestock and,

in some countries, later destined to agricultural production.

In Peru the main causes of deforestation are mining, oil and opening roads for

pipeline construction. In Ecuador oil exploration and colonization are the main

causes of deforestation in the Amazon. The expansion of illicit crops (coca) is also a

major cause of deforestation in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru (UNODC, 2011).

In Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana growth in exports of wood and

monocultures for biofuel production are considered the main drivers of

deforestation and forest degradation in the region. In Venezuela, it is estimated that

deforestation is mainly related to the activities of illegal mining and tourism (ACTO

UNEP, 2009).

Although deforestation rates in the Amazon have declined over the past five years,

experts agree that significant increases could happen in the coming years due to

major investments in road construction; probable increases in private investments

stimulated by the continued strong demand for agricultural products such as

soybeans oil palm and beef, and adopted changes to make environmental legislation

more flexible, among other factors. In the case of mining, oil, gas and gold are the

commodities related to deforestation in the Amazonian basin (see Maps 1 and 2).

8

Map 1: Deforestation by sub-‐basins, 2000-‐2005.

Source: RAISG 2012

Map 2: Deforestation by sub-‐basins, 2005-‐2010

Source: RAISG 2012

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Agriculture and livestock

In the Amazon, agriculture and cattle ranching, main drivers of deforestation, have

not necessarily developed into robust and sustainable economic activities. Highly

extensive practices with low productivity are most common in the region, caused,

among other reasons, by the almost free access to land, low technical assistance and

scarce knowledge of soil diversity.

This activity in the Amazon is characterized by a wide range of technological and

social models of exploitation, from traditional practices based on indigenous

communities to large private industrial production. Most common crops are rice,

cocoa, yucca, fruits, and pastures, but large productions of specific crops vary from

one country to the other. Coca is produced in Bolivia, Colombia and Peru; corn in

Ecuador y Bolivia; palm oil in Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela; soy in

Bolivia and Brazil and silviculture (monoculture) in Bolivia, Brazil and Venezuela.

Conditions for agricultural and livestock activities differ widely throughout the

Amazon. For example, Brazil’s pastures for livestock correspond to 93% of the total

area used for agriculture, and its production includes highly commercial crops and

large scale farming. On the other hand, in Ecuador, livestock production is less than

40% of agricultural activities, which are all very low in productivity and profitability.

Timber production

Timber production in the Amazon is a driver of deforestation and is mostly illegal.

Focused on high-‐quality wood, this activity continues to thrive despite the creation

of Natural Protected Areas, Indigenous Territories and other control mechanisms.

The activity usually amounts to illegal appropriation of public lands. It also affects

private land areas under concessions, hindering the application of corporate forest

management plans. In some deforestation patterns, income coming from timber is

used as seed capital for agricultural activities (cattle ranching and crop cultivation).

Common illegal practices related to the timber industry are wood theft, use of

navigable rivers and illegal opening of roads.

Some Amazonian countries have (Brazil, Peru) or have had (Bolivia) forest concession

systems to legalize exploitation but it has proven a difficult task to enforce the law.

In Brazil, the extension of the land makes it extremely difficult to control, although

the country counts with advanced technology for the monitoring of their forests. In

the case of Peru, the concessions (Law 27.308) were poorly designed and territorial

conflicts emerged in the implementation. Bolivia experienced significant political

changes and the new laws have not considered regulation of forest thoroughly.

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Roads

Road construction in the Amazon is directly related to deforestation processes,

through the acceleration and facilitation of illegal logging, agricultural activities, and

infrastructure and urbanization projects. A clear example of this situation is the so-‐

called “deforestation arc” in the Brazilian Amazon, created by the roads Belem-‐

Brasilia (BR153), Cuiaba-‐Santarem, (BR163) and Cuiaba-‐Porto Velho (BR364). The

road that connects Puerto Maldonado (Peru) with Cobija (Bolivia) and Rio Branco

(Brazil), intended to improve trade between these three countries and access to the

Pacific Ocean, is another example.

Although Brazil has the longest road network, Ecuador and Guyana have a higher

road density. In general, Natural Protected Areas and Indigenous Territories have

less road density and provide better options for forest conservation, except in Bolivia

and Guyana.

Oil and Gas

Amazon countries consider oil and gas to be strategic resources and constitutionally

assert their property.

Exploitation of these resources does not necessarily include prevention or mitigation

of negative social and environmental impacts, or investments necessary for the

compensation. Oil activities have multiplied in the last decade and are expected to

grow in the future.

The main impacts related to oil activities include: alteration of the quality of water

and air, soil pollution, habitat destruction, changes in land cover, soil contamination,

habitat destruction, changes in the behavior and distribution of species and the

introduction of disease vectors, among others (Correa-‐Viana and Esclasans, 2011).

Developing countries face the challenge to eradicate poverty at the same time as

promoting conservation. Addressing this challenge means that oil and gas projects

should respect socio-‐environmental diversity, and the countries should search for

energy alternatives that respond to the specificities of the region (RAISG, 2012).

In the Amazon there are 327 oil allotments, occupying 1.08 million km2, or 15% of

the Amazon. 80% of the lots are concentrated in the Andean Amazon, which is

where almost half of the indigenous peoples live. Amazon countries with the largest

areas intended for oil activities, including those with potential or going through the

application process, are Peru (84%), Colombia (40%) and Ecuador (21%). Ecuador is

the country with the largest area of oil allotments in operation in the Amazon.

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Mining

Mining is one of the key sectors for economic growth and the Amazon is one of the

most promising mining areas. A lack of policy coordination has resulted in the

establishment of mining activities within protected areas and indigenous territories.

The state owns mineral resources regardless of the land property rights.

Illegal mining activities have increased throughout the region during the last two

decades, specially the rise in the price of gold, resulting in escalating environmental

impact and often putting at risk the health of entire communities.

Areas with mining interests total 160 million hectares, which represents 21% of the

Amazon territory. Most areas of interest are still under application (50.8%), followed

by exploration areas (30.8%). Guyana is the country that has most of its Amazon

territory with mining areas.

Mining areas currently occupy 15% of the Natural Protected Areas and 19% of

Indigenous Territories in the Amazon.

Hydropower

The high hydroelectric potential of the rivers of the Amazon provide electricity at low

cost, without resorting to the use of fossil fuels or nuclear reactors and is an

opportunity to achieve sustainable levels in the electricity supply.

The social and environmental impacts of the construction and operation of

hydroelectric plants, such as changes in water regimes, hydrobiological diversity

reduction, water pollution and acceleration of deforestation, are underestimated or

ignored. Measurements of greenhouse gases (GEF) have shown that hydropower can

also be an important GEF source (Fearnside and Pueyo, 2012). Transboundary

problems among countries involving hydropower are not yet being discussed.

(RAISG, 2012).

Brazil has the largest number of hydroelectric plants with 340 records (81.5% of the

regional total), of which 109 are in operation or under construction and other 231

are planned. It is followed by Peru and Bolivia.

The great challenge for Amazon countries is to reconcile the use of their

hydroelectric potential with integrated basin management, recovery and

conservation of ecological cycles, social, economic and cultural values of a region

and depends essentially on its rivers. (RAISG, 2012).

Fires

Fire has been used historically in the Amazon as a cheap tool to clear the land from

forest. In recent years, forest fires are more common and intense. The most obvious

12

and immediate consequences of increased forest fires are the loss of diversity of

fauna and flora, air pollution and its consequent impact on health human, the

increased emission of greenhouse gases and reduced local rainfall because of smoke.

In the Southeast of the Amazon, the region called "Arc of Deforestation" (Brazil and

Bolivia) shows the largest number of fire spots. Lately, fires have been occurring in

remote areas and inside Natural Protected Areas. Indigenous and traditional

communities report problems to control fire and expressed the need to develop

procedures for adapting to climate change.

Recent estimates indicate that a combination of deforestation and climate change

may increase by 50% the occurrence of fires in the Amazon, 2050 (Silvestrini et al.,

2011), intensifying degradation and impoverishment of the forest.

Map 3: Accumulated land use pressure in the Amazon Basin up to 2010.

Source: RAISG 2012

Transportation, connectivity and land use pressures

The pattern of the development of transport and logistics infrastructure in the

Amazon is particularly worrisome, since the historically preferred method, i.e. roads,

13

is a known driver of deforestation. The first 50 km from the main highways of the

Amazon concentrate 80% of deforestation in the region.2

The expansion of agribusiness and both the expectation and the actual paving of

roads have been contributing to high deforestation rates, because (the expectation

of) such infrastructure investments induce land speculation. Moreover, illegal

market for land and timber, due to the government’s difficulty to control criminal

actions, further stimulates deforestation.” 3

Farming is also mentioned as a common consequence of the paving and expansion

of roads in the Amazon, adding to the effects of the expansion of cattle. Alencar et

alii (2005)4 state that road improvements and the subsequent drop in transport costs

boost activities that enhance land-‐use pressures. Such pressure would carry harsh

consequences in the future: “If past trends of continuous agricultural expansion as

well as extensive roads paving persist, 40% of the remaining Amazon forests may be

eliminated by 2050”.5

Nevertheless, investment plans to enhance transport infrastructure in the Amazon

show that roads remain the priority. This becomes clear from an analysis of Brazil’s

Growth Acceleration Programs (PAC).

The PAC is a strategic investment program that combines management initiatives

and public works. It has had two phases. The first was operational from 2007 to 2010

and included plans amounting to about R$ 638 billion in investments. PAC had

implementation problems: at the target completion date of mid-‐2010 less than 70%

of the funding was spent.

The PAC 2 estimates investments of R$ 955 billion for the period from 2011 to 2014,

including new investment projects and the finalization of projects initiated earlier.

For the period following 2014, the estimated investment is R$ 631.6 billion. The two

PAC 2 periods combined reach an amount of R$ 1.6 trillion.

Like the first phase of the program, PAC 2 focuses on investments in the areas of

logistics, energy and social development, organized under six major initiatives:

Better Cities (urban infrastructure) with a total estimated investments of R$ 57.1

billion; Bringing Citizenship to the Community (safety and social inclusion, R$ 23.0

2 Alencar, A. et al. (2004) 3 Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho et al. (2009) 4 Alencar, A. et alii (2005), page 2: “The road would result in substantial savings in transport costs for booming soybean plantations in northern Mato Grosso state, as well as for manufacturers shipping consumer goods from Manaus to southern Brazil”

5 Alencar, A. et alii (2005) ibid.

14

billion); My House, My Life (housing, R$ 278.2 billion); Water and Light for All

(sanitation and access to electricity, R$ 30.6 billion); Energy (renewable energy, oil

and gas, R$ 1092.6 billion); and Transportation (highways, railways, airports and

other means; R$ 109 billion). Transportation reaches a 6.9% of total planned

investments.

Up to September 2012, PAC 2 realized R$ 385.9 billion of investments, a 40.4% of

total expected for the period 2011-‐2014. Transportation reached investments of R$

26.8 billion in the form of finishing 1,120 km of roads, realizing 16 improvements in

airports and 14 in ports.

Figure 1: PAC 1 Transportation and Logistics Modal Investments 2007-‐2010, R$ billion and % of total

Source: authors, based on Portal Brasil6

PAC 2 (2011-‐2014 and post 2014 plans) includes investments in transpor-‐tation of R$

109 billion, 6.9% of total planned investments. The next table shows all investments

related to Amazonia (Brazilian States of Acre, Amazonas and Rondônia).

6 http://www.brasil.gov.br/para/planos-‐e-‐programas

15

Table 1: PAC 2 Amazonia Transportation and Logistics Investments, 2011-‐2014 and post 2014 (in billions of R$)

Acre Rondônia Amazonas 3 states PAC 2 extended

Total investments 1.970 30.490 18.710 51.170 1586.600

Transportation 0.691 1.870 2.121 4.682 109.000

5 other programmes 1.279 28.620 16.589 46.488 1477.600

Source: authors, based on Secretaria do Planejamento (2012)

The Amazon Basin absorbs 3.2% of extended PAC 2 investments and 4.3% of total

investments in transport infrastructure. Table 2 shows the composition of

investments in transport in each of the three states and in the Brazilian Amazon as a

whole.

Table 2: PAC 2 Amazonia Transportation and Logistics Investments 2011-‐2014 and post 2014. By means of transport, in billions of R$

Acre Rondônia Amazonas 3 states share

Transport investments 0.691 1.866 2.121 4.679

Highways 0.688 1.676 0.924 3.288 70.3%

Waterways 0.002 0.190 0.582 0.774 16.5%

Airports 0.394 0.394 8.4%

Merchant fleet 0.124 0.124 2.6%

Ports 0.092 0.092 2.0%

Eq. 3rd level roads 0.001 0.003 0.006 0.011 0.2%

Railways 0.000 0.0%

Source: authors, based on Secretaria do Planejamento (2012)

A strong vocation for the promotion of roads can be observed as 70% of PAC

investments are in road construction, including highways and improvements to other

roads. At the same time, investments in waterways, ports and the development of

the merchant fleet absorb 21.1%. The remainder of investments is in airports,

especially the renovation of the airport of Manaus.

Bara Neto et al make the following observation about modes of transport in the

Amazon: “river navigation is essential; it is the only form of communication for most

of its inhabitants and a central component of Amazon identity that is shared by all

Amazon people and the mode of transport most convenient for the environmental

conservation of the Amazon. Thus, the key question is: What type of connectivity

and infrastructure is being promoted and what are the consequences for land use

pressures in the Amazon?

16

The following maps show investment plans in the Amazon.

Map 4: PAC 2 Amazonia – Projects in roads.

Source: Secretaria do Planejamento (2012)

Map 5: PAC 2 – Projects in waterways.

Source: Secretaria do Planejamento (2012)

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Planning for sustainable development

A brief history of development planning in Amazon countries

The first nation-‐wide attempt in countries of the Amazon to elaborate public action

plans for development has been adscribed to Getulio Vargas’ Special Plan for Public

Works and National Defense, in Brazil in 19397. The Dutra Government in Brazil

(1949-‐1953) implemented the SALTE plan, the Portuguese language acronym for

Health, Nutrition, Transport and Energy. These plans identified priority sectors for

public action and mobilized financing for selected investment projects.

During the 1950s, technical capabilities at the national level were strengthened to

identify priority sectors, prepare investment plans and assess their economic and

social impacts. The Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA), as it was then

called, was instrumental through its annual training course for Latin American

economists.

Planning institutions were set up in a number of countries. The “Junta Nacional de

Planificación y Coordinación Económica” was set up in Ecuador in 1954. President

Kubitschek, presided the brazilian Council for Economic Development in 1956,

highlighting the importance of his “Programme of Goals”. In Colombia and

Venezuela, planning institutions were set up in 1958 and 1959.

Development planning shifted into a higher gear with the Punta del Este Charter

(1961) and the Alliance for Progress proposed by President Kennedy of the United

States. International financial support for investment and technical assistance

became available through the Interamerican Development Bank and the UN Fund for

Technical Assistance, the forerunner of the United Nations Development

Programme. Raul Prebisch with ECLA seized the momentum and promoted the

creation of the Latin American Institute for Economic and Social Planning (1962) that

functioned as the main international center for capacity building in planning with the

financial support of the international institutions mentioned before.

President Quadros in Brazil created the Ministry of Planning in 1961 and named

Celso Furtado as the first Minister. The military coup of 1964 changed everything but

did not lessen the importance of planning as such. The strategic development plan of

1968 and the Goals Plan of 1970 proposed to transform Brazil in global economic

power. In 1972 the Federal System of Planning was created.

7 This section closely follows Leiva, J. (2012) Pensamiento y práctica de la planificación en América Latina, CEPAL, Serie Gestión Pública

18

Colombia’s National Planning Department functions since 1958 directly under

supervision of the President of the Republic. With ECLA support, DNP presented in

1962 a development plan to the Experts Committee of the Alliance for Progress,

which opened the doors to international funding for Colombian development.

Venezuela created the Central Office for Coordination and Planning of the

Presidency of the Republic in 1959. Perú established the National Planning Institute

in 1962 with ECLA support.

The development plans of the 1960s and 1970s aimed at accelerating economic

growth and maintaining macro-‐economic consistency. At the core were the impact

of investment on growth rates and the current account of the balance of payments.

A distinct feature was the priority given to manufacturing industry, together with

energy, transport and communications. In the social sphere, priorities were

education, housing and health. Successful as they were in bringing about economic

growth and creating a nascent manufacturing industry, the plans ran into many

problems.

At a technical level, a major problem was the volatility of prices of primary products,

especially oil. Together with the rather random flows of international financing, they

undermined the validity of hypothesis and parameters underlying the models.

At the political-‐economy level, the planning efforts did not sufficiently anticipate the

reactions of economic agents to the plans. Opposition arose not only to specific

projects but also to more general orientations in planning itself. The political

economy dimension was a major weakness and eventually led to conceptual and

methodological changes in planning as such.

A third dimension of issues was administrative and bureaucratic. The struggle for

competencies and power among government agencies frequently inhibited the

implementation of plans as intended, even in cases where the planning authority

directly reported to the head of state.

Fourthly, a major source of learning involved government failure. Issues of capture

by interest groups, dynamic inconsistencies and principal-‐agent issues became clear

as these concepts were named.

Issues of territorial and environmental management were not at the forefront, with

notable exceptions regarding river basin management in Colombia, Peru and Brazil

and the creation of the SUDENE regional development agency for the brazilian

North-‐East. The development process of the 1960s and 1970s was marked by strong

19

population growth, rapid urbanization and little concern for environmental issues or

territorial cohesiveness.

The debt crisis of the 1980’s had a profound impact, on government finances,

ideology and economic development models. Planning institutes were by and large

dismantled and their functions transferred to the Finance Ministries. Improving the

functioning of markets became top priority in lieu of further developing national

planning instruments. At the same time, strategic planning tools as developed in the

world’s largest private sector companies were adopted by national and local

governments alike.

Successful as it may have been in terms of macro-‐economic stabilization and export

promotion, the development strategy of the 1980s and 1990s was rather

unsatisfactory in terms of growth, social equality and environmental sustainability. In

the course of the 1990s development planning was reinvented to address issues of

structural transformation, social inequality, environmental concerns and territorial

cohesion that could not be left to the functioning of markets alone.

Modern development planning in Brazil for example started in the presidency of

Fernando Henrique Cardoso who re-‐instated the Ministry of Planning and requested

it to present a new development strategy. The 1996-‐1999 plan focused on the

construction of a modern and efficient state; diminishing social and territorial

imbalances; and competitiveness and modernization of production. The plan was

however subordinated to the success of the stabilization plan (the Plan Real) and

only the 1997 Brazil in Action plan was able to develop the highest priority public

investment projects.

In the second Cardoso Government, the “Brazil Advances” Plan aimed to improve

the quality of public expenditure and improve public management. The two

development plans under the Lula presidency were more ambitious. In the 2008-‐

2011 plan, the issues of environmental management and territorial integration came

to the forefront.

Planning in Colombia was never dismantled like it was in other Amazon countries.

However, issues of peace and security were of highest priority. It was not before the

2006-‐2010 plan that the issue of environmental management was placed at the

same level of priority as growth, social equality and peace.

Development planning in Venezuela was shifted to the creation of the socialism of

the 21st century. The Ministry of Planning and Development took the place of

CORDIPLAN and developed two five-‐year plans to establish a new development

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model aimed at social improvements. More recently, in Ecuador and Bolivia national

development plans were adopted aimed at Sumak Kawsay (the good living) and

suma qawana (to live well), respectively. The Ecuadorian plan contains a primer in

that it considers the rights of nature.

Land-‐use planning in Amazon countries

In the context of the evolution of development planning in Amazon countries as

described above, the instrument of land-‐use planning was introduced in most

countries toward the end of the 1970’s; lost relevance in the 1980’s and was re-‐

discovered and strengthened in the course of the 1990s. The current situation is that

all Amazon countries have a certain legal framework in place and are gaining

experience with implementation.

In Venezuela, the Environmental Law of 1976 mandated the comprehensive planning

of national territory. The 1983 Law provided the basis for land-‐use planning. It was

not until 1998 that a national plan for land-‐use was approved.

Colombia, through the 1979 sanitation code, established municipal competencies for

land-‐use regulation. The 1994 Planning Law provided for land-‐use plans at municipal

and district levels. In 2011 the Land-‐use planning law was approved.

Law 6766 of 1979 in Brazil established a governance structure for urban land-‐use in

each municipal capital. In 1981, the Economic and Ecological Zoning was adopted as

an instrument for territorial environmental management, under the responsibility of

the Ministry of the Environment. The 1988 Constitution establishes the competency

of municipalities for land-‐use planning and its control. In 2005, the basis for a

national land-‐use plan was approved.

In Bolivia it was not until the Environment Law of 1992 that an instrument for land-‐

use planning was established, in the sense of economic, environmental, social and

cultural zoning for environmental planning. In 1994 a municipal, departmental and

national land-‐use plan was announced.

In Ecuador, the creation of the Ministry of the Environment in 1996 started the

consideration of land-‐use planning. The 2010 Code for Territorial Organization,

Autonomy and Decentralization strengthened land-‐use planning.

Peru created the National Commission for land-‐use planning only in 2001 and

adopted an economic-‐ecological zoning instrument in 2004 as a reference for

sectorial and regional investment planning. At present, a land-‐use planning law is in

preparation.

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Land-‐use planning, as it has evolved in Amazon countries, is a public policy and a

technical, administrative and political process aimed at creating a governance model

for the occupation, use and transformation of land under criteria of ecological

sustainability, territorial equality, cultural diversity, and conciliation of economic,

social and environmental development goals.8 It should be understood and assessed

as an instrument within a family of sustainable and territorial development policies.

Examples of sustainable development programs from Brazil

Brazil is a reference regarding the effective implementation of environmental

policies in the Amazon, provided they have sufficient political support and priority. In

recent years, following commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases

caused by deforestation, the Brazilian government has developed a series of

technical and legal instruments to improve the inadequate forms of occupation and

land use of Amazon's natural resources, facing the challenges of sustainability and

socioeconomic development agenda of the country and the region.

One such policy is the 2008 Territories of Citizenship programme, which aims to

reinforce policies to reduce poverty and social inequalities in the country’s rural

areas. The programme involves integrated actions at three levels (federal, state and

municipal) and establishes and coordinates management committees at the

national, state and territorial levels. The main objectives of the programme are to

integrate public policies on the basis of territorial planning, expand mechanisms for

social participation in the management of public policies and provide a broader

range of more universal citizenship programmes.

The programme has two basic lines of action: one to support production activity, and

another aimed at the

exercise of rights and institution-‐building. The aim is to achieve social inclusion by

stimulating income generation in the rural economy, as well as citizen participation

in the planning of sustainable territorial development and access to essential public

services such as civil documentation, food and nutritional security, health care,

education, culture, social organization and infrastructure (housing, access roads,

energy and sanitation).

The programme selects territories based on the following criteria: (i) territories with

a lower human development index (HDI); (ii) territories with a high concentration of

beneficiaries of the cash-‐transfer programme Bolsa Familia; (iii) concentration of

8 The conceptual definition of land-‐use planning was proposed by Angel Massiris.

22

family-‐based subsistence farming and agrarian reform settlements; (iv) high

concentration of Quilombola (descendants of runaway slaves) and indigenous

populations; (v) territories with a high number of municipalities with slow economic

growth; and (vi) territories with a high level of social organization (social capital).

According to the Ministry of Agricultural Development (MDA) of Brazil, which is the

main federal manager for the programme, the current coverage is 164 territories,

representing 58% of the country’s surface area and 52 million inhabitants.

Another relevant instrument for territorial and environmental management is

Ecological-‐Economic Zoning. Initially planned for the Amazon region, due to the

visibility of the forest in the international context, the EEZ became later a Program of

the Multi-‐Year Plan for the whole country, under the coordination of the Ministry of

Environment.

The EEZ is based on a spatial analysis of environmental, social and economical data,

in order to guide the design of strategies for the occupation and sustainable land use

of the territory. The EEZ provides robust information for public policy development,

territorial and environmental planning, as well as decisions of private agents.

The EEZ guides national, state and municipal levels to adopt policies that converge

with the guidelines of the country's strategic planning, proposing solutions for

environmental protection and development to consider the improvement of living

conditions of the population and reducing the risk of loss of natural heritage (MMA,

2003).

In summary, the EEZ has, among its objectives:

• Support the development of plans, programs and policies and propose alternatives

for decision-‐making, within the perspective of compatibility between economic

activities and the natural environment;

• Identify inconsistencies and affinities between national policies for environment

and development;

• Gather efforts to systematize data and information to support, for example,

environmental licensing and government action to control deforestation;

• Identify opportunities for the use of natural resources, establishing the parameters

necessary for its operation;

• Identify and analyze environmental problems, such as degraded areas, improper

use and illegal exploitation

• Propose legal guidelines and programs in nature conservation and sustainable

development.

23

Map 6: Ecological-‐Economic macrozoning of Legal Amazonia, territorial and strategic units.

Note: Map is best readable on 400 percent.

Source: MMA

The third programme reviewed here concerns the Action Plan for Prevention and

Control of Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAM), launched in 2004, which

operates in an area of 5 million km2, called Legal Amazon.

This Action Plan is executed with the participation of more than ten ministries under

the coordination of the Ministry of the Interior (Casa Civil) of the Presidency of the

Federal Republic. Their actions are structured around three main areas: (i)

agriculture and land management, (ii) monitoring and environmental control and

(iii.) building sustainable productive activities.

Priorities were the improvement of coverage of monitoring satellite systems of the

region and the strengthening of environmental control and supervision activities.

The Actual Time System for Detection of Deforestation (DETER), and the Amazon

Deforestation Monitoring Project (PRODES) for the satellite monitoring of the

Amazon Forest, both under the management of INPE (National Institute of

Environmental Research) and supported by the Ministry of Environment, were

actions under the PPCDAM.

24

Map 7: Protected Areas in the Brazilian Amazon in December 2010.

Source © IMAZON/ISA, 2011

DETER is a quick survey done monthly since May 2004, with data from the MODIS

Sensor of the Terra/Aqua satellite and from Sensor WFI of CBERS satellite, with a

spatial resolution of 250 m. DETER is designed as an early warning system to support

surveillance and control of deforestation. DETER maps both clear cutting areas and

areas in process of deforestation by forest degradation.

PRODES has been recognized as a fundamental contribution to PPCDAM goals

achievement due its agility and transparency in the dissemination of Amazon

deforestation data. The main advantage of this procedure is the accuracy of the geo-‐

referencing of deforestation polygons in order to produce a geographic

multitemporal database.

Control activities under the PPCDAM consisted of hundreds of operations involving

IBAMA (Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources), state

environmental agencies, the Federal Police, the National Security Force and

sometimes the Brazilian Army to combat illegal schemes for logging and land use.

25

The PPCDAM also regularized the system of land property, created protected natural

areas and provided initial incentives for a sustainable economy.

Finally, the protection of social and environmental diversity is being protected

through the recognition of land rights of indigenous peoples and the consolidation of

a diverse set of protected areas. These conservation strategies have been increasing

in recent years and now reach an area of 3,502,750 km2 (2,144,412 km2 in

indigenous and 1,696,529 km2 in protected areas, with 336 365 km2 of overlap

between them) corresponding to 45% of the region.

Parts of the Protected Natural Areas (PNA) and Indigenous Territories (IT) in the

Amazon have become true islands of forests, due to the expansion of the industry of

basic products at low added value for exportation. (RAISG, 2012)

Concluding remarks

Planning for sustainable development of the Amazon Basin has come a long way

since the 1970s witnessed the acceleration of deforestation due to development

programs in all nine countries that encouraged migration to colonize the Amazon

territories. In particular, government programs in Ecuador, Peru and Brazil at the

time encouraged deforestation as a requirement to obtain property rights, forever

changing patterns of territorial occupation of the Amazon.

Environmental concerns started to permeate development plans in the late 1970’s,

shortly before the international crisis of the early 1980’s imposed a shift in

development paradigm away from planning. The crisis of the 1980s and the market-‐

oriented development strategy did little to redress the negative environmental

consequences of changing land-‐uses in the Amazon Basin.

It was not until the 1990’s that environmental sustainability of development became

a prominent concern. Most countries started to build a legal framework and a

technical capability to manage environmental issues. At the same time, development

planning was reinvented and the process of decentralization of competencies to

local governments advanced. Regional development strategies to deal with spatial

inequalities are even more recent.

Land-‐use planning, which should be a prime tool for environmental sustainability as

well as territorial cohesion, is being implemented in most countries for little more

over a decade or two. Much progress has been made in its conceptualization,

drafting of laws, policies, plans, methodological guidelines, information systems and

civil society participation mechanisms. Not the same can be said about its impact in

terms of the effective solution of territorial and environmental issues.

26

The problem is complex. Its successful implementation requires adequate

coordination among levels and across sectors of Government as well as a shared

long-‐term vision including desired social, economic and technological

transformations. There are information asymmetries, risks of capture by interest

groups and all the known pitfalls of government failure.

Land-‐use pressures in the Amazon Basin will increase in the foreseeable future.

Much more is needed in terms of planning competencies at all levels of government,

in order to ensure environmental sustainability and territorial cohesion. More is also

needed in terms of international coordination, even acknowledging important

achievements by the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization and the UNASUR

Ministerial Council for Infrastructure and Planning COSIPLAN.

27

References

Alencar, Ane; Laurent Micol; John Reid; Marcos Amend; Marilia Oliveira; Vivian Zeidemann and Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior, 2005. A pavimentação da BR-‐163 e os desafios à sustentabilidade: uma análise econômica social e ambiental. CSF, Belo Horizonte, Brasil. ISBN 85-‐99451-‐01-‐4.

Alencar, Ane; Nepstad, N.; McGrath, D.; Moutinho, P.; Pacheco, P.; Diaz, M. D. C. V. and Soares-‐Filho, B., 2004. Desmatamento na Amazônia: indo além da emergência crônica. IPAM, Belém, Brasil.

Bara Neto, Pedro, Ricardo J. Sánchez and Gordon Wilmsmeier, 2006. Hacia un desarrollo sustentable e integrado de la Amazonía. Los corredores de transporte en la cuenca amazónica central -‐ occidental y sus afluentes principales en Brasil, Colombia, Ecuador y Perú; Serie Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura 109. CEPAL, Naciones Unidas; Santiago, Chile.

Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho et al., 2009. “Reduction of Carbon Emissions Associated with Deforestation in Brazil: The Role of the Amazon Region Protected Areas Program (ARPA)”; UFMG, IPAM, WHRC, WWF: http://assets.wnf.nl/downloads/arpa_report_english.pdf

Correa-‐Viana y Esclasans, Impactos de la industria petrolera. En: KLEIN, E.; CÁRDENAS, J.J. (eds.). Identificación de prioridades de conservación asociadas a los ecosistemas de la fachada atlántica venezolana y a su biodiversidad. Caracas, Venezuela: Universidad Simón Bolívar; The Nature Conservancy. p. 69-‐71.

FAO, 2011. The State of Forests in the Amazon Basin, Congo Basin and Southeast Asia. A report prepared for the Summit of the Three Rainforest Basins, Brazzaville, Republic of Congo | 31 May–3 June, 2011

FEARNSIDE, P.M. and S. PUEYO, 2012. Greenhouse-‐gas emissions from tropical dams. Nature Climate Change 2: 382-‐384.

Kriege and Chedi-‐Toelsie, 2006; Way, 2012. KRIEGE, R.; CHEDI-‐TOELSIE, S. 2006. A case study of progressive cavity pump gauges and installation in staatsolie, Suriname.

Margulis, Sergio (2003): Causas do Desmatamento da Amazônia Brasileira -‐ 1ª edição; Banco Mundial, Brasilia, Brasil ISBN: 85-‐88192-‐10-‐1.

OTCA UNEP, 2009. PNUMA; OTCA; CIUP. 2009. GEO Amazonía: perspectivas del medio ambiente en la Amazonía. Panamá: Pnuma; Brasília, Brasil: OTCA.

PDVSA, 2012. PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.). 2012. Informe de gestión anual 2011: PDVSA y filiales. Caracas, Venezuela.

RAISG, 2012. RAISG, 2012. Amazonía bajo presión. 68 págs. (www.raisg.socio ambiental.org)

Secretaria de Planejamento, Brasil, 2012. PAC 2 – O Circulo Virtuoso do Desenvolvimento. 5º Balanço. Secretaria de Planejamento, Brasilia.

Silvestrini et al., 2011. SILVESTRINI, R. A. et al., 2011. Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation. Ecological Applications 21: 1573-‐1590.

UNODC, 2011. UNODC (Oficina de las Naciones Unidas contra la Droga y el Delito), 2011. Monitoreo de cultivos de coca. Gobiernos de Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador y Perú.

28

SPATIAL IMPLICATIONS ON LAND AND RESOURCES OF NEW ROAD

INFRASTRUCTURE IN SURINAME: LAND USE SCANNER

Mathilde Molendijk, Martin van deer Beek, Ronnie Lassche

Abstract: In the sparsely populated country of Suriname, South America, plans are being

made to develop the infrastructure and connect Suriname with Brazil via a new

road straight through the country’s pristine forest area. Geoinformation plays a

crucial role in assessing potential spatial changes in land and resources

resulting from these new infrastructural plans. The implications for people

living in these affected areas can be demonstrated by visualizing potential

impact areas on maps that are accessible for all.

Introduction

In December 2010 a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed between the

Suriname government and Chinese company “China Harbor” to investigate the

possibilities to construct a road and a railroad connecting the capital city of

Paramaribo in the North of the country, to Brazil. Other parts of the MoU include

e.g. the possible development of a deep sea harbor. These intentions suggest a focus

on transport of bulk goods such as mining products and timber from the interior of

Suriname, possible from Brazil as well, to the north of the country. Implications of

the plans are not know yet, but modeling possible spatial impacts of these new

infrastructural works demonstrates where changes in land use could occur in the

future.

In this article we describe the development of the modeling process of the new road

infrastructure for Suriname, using the “ClueScanner” tool. Spatial awareness of the

possible implications of such a new road among local stakeholders can be achieved

through the publication of maps (web based, or in paper format) and by developing

educational modules to explore impacts in the local livelihoods. Only when all

stakeholders have the same information at their disposal, a meaningful discussion

can take place.

First we will explain the data collection necessary to set up a spatial model of the

new road infrastructure in Suriname. The resulting maps are made accessible for the

public through the EduGIS website. Finally we will present the results of the spatial

modeling exercise.

29

Data collection

The construction of infrastructural works, such as roads, has mayor spatial impacts

on future land use patterns. A road opens up previously less accessible areas, which

makes the area attractive for various forms of economic exploitation. It becomes

more attractive to harvest wood, it enables bulk transport as well of mining

products, it open ups new opportunities for small and large scale agriculture,

previously peripheral villages get better and cheaper connections to the centre. In

such areas, land speculation is likely to occur by people who expect profits by

claiming vast tracks of land in these areas as concessions for timber or mining

extraction. Several methods exist to model such spatial impacts of infrastructural

works.

Before starting the process of modelling, spatial data had to be collected. Data and

maps stem from different sources. There are many examples of participatory

mapping projects by local stakeholders (http://www.amazonteam.org, Suriname),

but predominantly nongovernmental organizations and especially governmental

bodies are the main producers of digital information and maps. In the Surinamese

case study, data has been collected from sources as the Centre of Agricultural

Research of the ADEK University of Suriname), the Foundation for Forest

Management and Production Control, and the Department of Geology and Mining of

the Ministry of Natural Resources. The trajectories of the proposed news roads and

location of the dams are based on existing paper map plans. These maps have been

digitized and geo-‐referenced. Information on the data can be found at

http://www.edugis.nl/lesmodules/Suriname/metadata.html. The maps were placed

on the public EduGIS website, so everyone can see, by combining map layers, where

village territories overlap with the planned infrastructural works, or where the future

roads would cross through which concession areas. In the figure below (Figure 1) one

can distinguish all the different maps that have been collected at the left side of the

menu under “lagenselectie”. Each map can be displayed in the screen, and different

map layers can be combined, depending on the interest of the user: e.g. one can

combine a map with location of the new road, with the villages and the concession

areas. To explore the datasets or maps, an educational module has been developed,

to be found at the right side of the menu.

30

Figure 1: EduGIS website, Suriname section

More challenging however is to use these GIS maps to model the possible future

spatial impacts of such new infrastructural works. A model that generates images of

possible effects based on different scenarios, and that calculates spatial impacts of

policy alternatives is a valuable tool in the decision making process. For this exercise,

the ClueScanner model has been used.

Modelling of the impact area

Once the optimal routing has been established we attempt at measuring the impact

of the road on the territory that is trespassed as it will develop in the course of time.

Many SEAs apply ex ante limits to impact areas as observed in this study, like

mountain ranges, wide rivers, and national borders. Border areas in particular have

been excluded from SEAs while the creation of international linkages may induce

significant change in areas at both sides of the border.

Among the models available for assessing the probable impact area of a road the so-‐

called ClueScanner is used. This GIS based land use model generates spatial

projections for alternative scenarios, depending on a series of variables related to

land suitability, physical factors, infrastructure, markets, population concentrations,

and government policies.

31

The ClueScanner model is a spatial explicit calculation instrument for making

projections of future land use. The basic assumption is that multiple land use types

(built area, agriculture, forest, nature, water etc.) compete for the same limited

amount of land. The regional demand and the local suitability for the land use type

determine the price a land user is ‘willing to pay’ for a specific land unit. The land

units are modelled as grid cells. The ClueScanner is used in a case study for

Suriname, to model the effects of new infrastructure (roads, railways, waterways) on

land use changes, as represented in figure 2.

Figure 2: land use model as used in ClueScanner study for Suriname

Regional Demands are projections of the total amount of land use (change). These

projections are land use type specific. Sources for these projections can be sector or

demographic models (demographic growth usually results in a higher demand for

built up areas and agricultural land). The demands can also be based on expert

knowledge.

The Local Suitability is modelled for each land use type at the land unit level. It may

incorporate a large number of suitability factors referring to various aspects such as:

• current land use: the suitability of a land use type for a land unit is often

higher if this land use type already occurs in the land unit in the previous

period. Especially for land use transitions which high costs (for example if new

housing areas need to be build), this can be a substantial factor. The presence

of the same land use type in the neighbourhood often also increases the

suitability, for example because new housing areas make use of services of

adjacent housing areas.

Regional

Demand

Current landuse Physical Policy Distance relations

Allocation Future Landuse

Local Suitability

32

• physical properties, such as altitude, slope and soil type. Flat, low-‐lying land

units are often relative more suitable for built up area, infrastructure and

intensive agriculture, as the construction and maintenance costs are relatively

low.

• planning policies, such as protected areas, materials and concession policies

determine the suitability of areas to be exploited and developed.

• distance relations to nearby features, such as towns, harbours, roads or rivers

determine the suitability especially if transport costs are relevant.

The suitability of land units is affected by nearby improvements of roads. In the

Suriname applications, new roads will reduce the travel times from the inlands to

Paramaribo from 24 hours to less than 8 hours. The improved accessibility will

increase the suitability for land use types differently. This implies that some land use

types are assumed to pay higher prices for the land units that become more

accessible. In the allocation module, these higher prices will, ceteris paribus, result in

the allocation of built area and agriculture nearby the new roads. This pattern

corresponds to what can be observed on existing maps.

The allocation module allocates the land use types according to their local

suitabilities, taking the claims as preconditions that need to be fulfilled. If the claims

cannot be fulfilled, status information on why no feasible solution can be found is

presented. The allocation model uses a discrete allocation function, resulting in one

land use type for each land unit. More information on this function can be found at:

http://wiki.objectvision.nl/index.php/Discrete_ Allocation. To calculate the results,

the GeoDMS software is used. The GeoDMS is a modelling framework that supports

a controlled and efficient calculation process, especially useful for large spatial

datasets. In the Suriname case study allocation results are calculated for more than 4

million grid cells and dozens of suitability factor maps within one minute.

To calculate the results, the GeoDMS software is used. The GeoDMS is a modelling

framework that supports a controlled and efficient calculation process, especially

useful for large spatial datasets. In the Suriname case study allocation results are

calculated for more than 4 million grid cells and dozens of suitability factor maps

within one minute.

Results

The result of the model is a projection of the future land use. In the ClueScanner this

usually means a projection for several time steps of one year or smaller. Animation

33

techniques can be used to visualise the developments, using the future land use of

the time steps as input. An example of a result map is presented in figure 3 below.

Figure 3 Land Use Suriname 2025

Other Shifting cultivation Built up Large-‐scale agriculture Small-‐scale agriculture Rice Forest Swamp and savannah forests Open areas Water Exterior

The results of the model indicate that at some locations along the new projected

road, there is a low impact to be expected within 500 m road buffer, whereas other

locations demonstrate a high impact within a four kilometer road buffer. These maps

and animations can be used for discussion with stakeholders and for the

development and evaluation of spatial policy plans.

The focus of the ClueScanner is on the spatial allocation of land use change. The model does not predict the total amount of demographic growth nor the prices of materials. The strengths of the ClueScanner are that it can:

Determine whether the demands can be satisfied simultaneously

Allocate and map spatial distributions with maximum suitability of land use types

Help to evaluate the impact of spatial distribution

The model is developed in the Netherlands, a country in which land use changed is

mainly influenced by spatial planning due to the high pressure and interactions of

land use. Investment decisions usually have a time horizon of multiple years, both in

terms of realizing a project as well as in payback time. In policy rich environments,

the model therefore usually calculates in one or a few time steps of 10 or 15 years.

In this context the name Land Use Scanner(RuimteScanner in Dutch) is used.

To support modelling natural processes as factors for land use change, the model is

made dynamic with time steps of one year or smaller. The suitability factors are

classified as static (constant during the projection period) or dynamic (dependent on

the allocated land use in the previous period, or from other sources that differ over

34

the projection period). This dynamic approach has been used in the Suriname case to

model the effects of the different stages of infrastructure development on land use

change.

The ClueScanner is an integral model for analysing the effects of different scenarios

on land use change. Within a scenario infrastructure developments can be an

important aspect as well as demographic growth or spatial policy options. The model

is less suitable for predicting the exact location of where a road will be build, but is

suitable for projection the effects on development of built up areas and agriculture

nearby new infrastructure as well as deforestation and mining, taking into account

also other relevant developments modelled in the scenarios. The resulting

animations are available at: http://www.object vision.nl/projects/suriname-‐new-‐

infrastruc ture.

Conclusions

With the application of the “ClueScanner” based on the new road plans in Suriname,

we demonstrated that geoinformation plays a crucial role in assessing potential

spatial changes in land and resources resulting from these new infrastructural plans.

To asses interactions with natural, technical and social factors, powerful instruments

are needed for linking information from different sources by location.

References

Dijck, Pitou VAN, The Impact of the IIRSA Road Infrastructure Programme on Amazonia, Earthscan, Routledge, 2013

EuClueScanner: http://www.objectvision.nl/products/eucluescanner

LandUseScanner: http://www.objectvision.nl/products/ruimtescanner and http://www. objectvision.nl/products/ruimtescanner/documents-‐and-‐articles

Clue Model: http://www.ivm.vu.nl/en/Organisation/departments/spatial-‐analysis-‐decision-‐support/Clue/index.asp

Land Use Modelling: http://www.feweb.vu.nl/gis/research/LUCAS

35

LAND USE SCANNER EXERCISE AND ASSIGNMENT

SPINlab VU University Amsterdam

version January, 2013

Looking into the future has fascinated mankind for ages. With the advent of

computers we do not even need a crystal ball anymore to foresee how our country

will look like in say 30 years time. Now, regular desktop pcs have enough computing

power to help simulate future land use. All that is needed is a set of spatial data,

modelling software and some thoughts on which spatial developments you expect

are going to happen in the coming decades. The latter is of course the tricky part. By

looking at current developments we may distil trends that are likely to continue for

the coming 5 years, but looking much further is risky at best. Many uncertainties

prevail: Will population growth come to a halt? Will economic development be slow?

Will society prefer ecological sustainability or economic prosperity? What will be the

role of the government in steering socio-‐economic developments?

A much favoured approach to deal with the uncertainties

relating to future spatial developments is the use of

scenarios. By describing several opposing views on the

future we can simulate a broad range of spatial

developments, thus offering a full overview on possible

land-‐use alterations. Each individual outlook for the

future will not necessarily contain the most likely

prospects, but as a whole the simulations provide the

bandwidth of possible land-‐use changes. The individual

scenarios should in fact not strive to be as probable as

possible, but should stir the imagination and broaden the view on the future.

Important elements are: plausible unexpectedness and informational vividness

(Xiang and Clarke, 2003).

Simulating the future has only recently become part of science.

36

In this assignment you will be asked to simulate future land use in Suriname with an

actual land-‐use model according to a specific scenario of socio-‐economic

developments. First we will introduce the Land Use Scanner model that you are

going to use. After this introduction you will explore the model in a hand-‐on

exercise. When you are familiar with the model’s main functions you will start the

actual assignment.

Introducing the land use scanner.

In this assignment we will use the Land Use Scanner, an integrated land-‐use model

that has been used for various policy related research projects. Early applications

include, amongst others, the simulation of future land use following different

scenarios (e.g. Borsboom-‐van Beurden et al., 2007) and the evaluation of

alternatives for a new national airport (Scholten et al., 1999). The model has been

used in many outlooks on the future relating to a range of planning themes, such as:

water management (Dekkers and Koomen, 2007; De Moel et al., 2011); climate

change (Koomen et al., 2008); the prospects of agricultural land use in the

Netherlands (Koomen et al., 2005); and the development and evaluation of regional

spatial strategies (Koomen et al., 2011). Apart from these Dutch applications, the

model has also been applied in several European countries (Hoymann, 2010; Te

Linde et al., 2011; Schotten et al., 2001) and also in Honduras and Bangladesh. The

GeoDMS framework underlying Land Use Scanner is also used in the recent EU-‐

ClueScanner model that was developed for the European Commission and that now

covers the 27 member states of the European Union at a 100meter resolution

(Lavalle et al., 2011) A full account of the original model is provided by Hilferink and

Rietveld (1999), whereas recent applications are documented in a book by Koomen

and Borsboom-‐van Beurden (2011). For an extensive overview of all publications

which are related to Land Use Scanner, the reader is referred to www.lumos.info and

www.feweb.vu.nl/gis.

The Land Use Scanner is a GIS-‐based model that simulates future land use. Unlike

many other land-‐use models its objective is not to forecast the dimension of land-‐

use change but rather to integrate and allocate future land-‐use claims from different

sector-‐specific models. The model offers an integrated view on all types of land use.

It deals with urban, natural and agricultural functions, distinguishing 10 different

land-‐use categories. The model is grid-‐based and uses 4,029,750 cells of 250 by 250

meter to cover Suriname.

37

Current land use per cell, clearly showing the raster structure.

The model simulates future land use, based on the following main components:

the present situation;

estimates of future land use demand per for the whole of Suriname (land-‐use

claims); and

suitability for a certain land use per grid cell.

The following sections describe each of these elements.

a) Present situation

In the Land Use Scanner the present situation is described by:

current (i.e. 2012) land use;

physical maps showing the physical characteristic of the grid cells in this model

elevation, slope and soil are used;

Material maps showing the location of the bauxite, gold and timber concessions;

Accessibility maps, these maps provide a relative measure for accessibility to several

phenomena for example to roads, rivers and towns. The accessibility measure is a

function of the landuse type of a location and the slope;

policy maps showing operative (government) policies based on restrictions (yes or

no);

38

b) Regional demand

Sector-‐specific models of specialized institutes, such as housing and employment

models, provide the regional projections of land-‐use change that are used as input

for the Land Use Scanner model. These are called claims sets in the model.

c) Local suitability

Suitability is a crucial component in the allocation of future land use. This suitability

of a location (grid cell) can be interpreted as the net benefits that a land-‐use function

derives from that specific location and are expressed in Dollars per hectare. A high

suitability for a certain land-‐use type leads to a high probability that this land-‐use

type gets allocated. The value of a grid cell in a suitability map can also be negative

indicating that the cell is highly unsuitable for a certain land use. For every location

the suitability or attractiveness for the different land-‐use types is described, based

on a number of site specific characteristics. The factors influencing this suitability are

divided in six groups:

1. current land use;

2. neighbourhood,

3. accessibility,

4. physical

5. material

6. policy

The importance of each contributing factor is dependent on the scenario and

weighted in a script, as will be explained in the exercise.

d) Allocation of future land use

The demand for land is matched with the supply of suitable land, resulting in a

simulated future land use for each grid cell. This process is called allocation. The

Land Use Scanner is able to use two different descriptions of land use per cell in the

allocation process:

1. a continuous description using heterogeneous cells to indicate the amount of land for each land-‐use type present at a specific location (as was explained on the preceding page).

2. a discrete description using homogenous to indicate the single dominant land use at a particular location.

Each description of land use has its own allocation procedure. The continuous

allocation uses a logit function to calculate the most probable land use at that

39

location, whereas the discrete allocation uses a spatial optimisation procedure that

is solved though a form of linear programming. Appendix 1 briefly explains these

different allocation procedures.

The outcomes of the continuous model version can be interpreted as the expected

proportions of land to be used for the various types of land use. The predominant

land-‐use maps depicting these results are similar to the outcomes of the discrete

allocation process.

This assignment uses the discrete allocation procedure. In the discrete allocation

every cell gets a single value representing the expected land use type.

The spatial developments of a number of specific land-‐use types (Water, Infra-‐

structure, Other land use and Exterior) are not simulated through the allocation

module, because they are either absent or having a very confined, local appearance.

These normally only constitute of planned additions to the infrastructure network,

that are directly (exogenously) inserted in the simulation outcomes.

The functioning of the model is summarised below.

Figure 1.

40

Exercise – Getting to know the Land Use Scanner

To familiarize yourself with the Land Use Scanner model we ask you to go through

this simple exercise. Read the exercise carefully!

Each time an Action of your part is required during this exercise, the symbol will

be printed in the left margin of the page. After having completed all steps you should

be able to use all basic functions of the model.

e) Getting started

Start the Land Use Scanner model.

The model should now display the blank starting page entitled: Land Use Scanner -‐

demo.dms. Beneath this title-‐bar you find:

the menu bar with several pull down menus,

a currently empty dark-‐grey tool-‐bar that can contain window-‐specific tools,

on the left hand side a TreeView that allows you to navigate through the spatial data

collection

on the right hand side a currently empty light-‐grey data view area (for displaying

tables and maps)

at the bottom a status bar that can present hints and status information

We will concentrate on the TreeView, since that provides the easiest access to the

model.

f) Viewing spatial data

The Land Use Scanner contains a number of spatial data sets. These can be viewed

by browsing through the TreeView.

1. Start by clicking on the + in front of the container (directory) called “Present”

and again on the + in front of the subsequent “landuse” container. This container

contains amongst others the data-‐layer model that describe current the land

use.. The small globes [ ] indicate that a map of the data-‐layer can now be

drawn in the data-‐view area.

2. The container per_type contains maps for each individual land use type. View

several land-‐use maps by trying out all three possible ways to draw a map view:

• by double-‐clicking on any of the data layer names. This option allows multiple

data layers to be drawn in the same map view window.

41

• by activating (clicking on) the data layer and then simultaneously pressing the

Ctrl-‐M key combination. This option will open a new map view window for

every data layer.

• by giving a right mouse-‐click on the data layer and selecting the Map View >

Default option from the appearing menu. This option will open a new map

view window for every data layer.

Note that a legend appears on the right hand side with the land use type, for the

layer model or with an indication (yes/no) if a cell is of the selected land use type or

not. A last column in this legend contains the cell count for each class. Because the

dimension of a cell is 250*250 meters each cell equals 6.25 hectares.

The edit palette pop-‐up menu option allows you to change the classification and

colour, but we will not spend time on that (all information about these options can

be found in the user guide, also available on www.objectvision.nl).

3. The tool-‐bar now contains several standard GIS-‐functions like:

zoom in

zoom out

pan

get info

set to full

extent

copy visible area to

clipboard

toggle scalebar

Explore these functions to familiarize yourself with their possibilities. See for a

description of all tools the user guide.

Dominant land use in the Netherlands for the year 2000.

4. The Land Use Scanner also contains a collection of spatial data sets that are

relevant for the simulation of future land use. These sets are considered when

suitability is defined.

Take 10 minutes to browse through the containers containing physical, material,

accessibility and policy maps. You will find physical maps with elevation, slope

and soil conditions. The material maps contain information about the gold,

bauxite and timber concessions. The accessibility maps give a measure of the

accessibility of certain phenomena, where accessibility is a combination of

distance and terrain conditions. The protected areas can be found under the

policy maps.

42

g) Defining suitability

Future scenarios and policy alternatives are implemented in the Land Use Scanner

through sets of maps that reflect suitability and exogenous developments and a

table with land-‐use claims. In the assignment that follows this exercise these

scenarios will be introduced. Now will first explore the model, starting with the way

suitability is included in the model.

1. Start by opening the high_population scenario. This can be found in the

container ScenarioComponents – Suitability – High_population. Here you see

the factors influencing the suitability local suitability for the landuse class

"bebouwd". The last item in this list is the total suitability, this is the sum of

all the suitability's for this landuse class. Open the map total and write down

the minimum and maximum value in the statistics.

2. Inspect the definition of the suitability map that you opened by right-‐clicking

on the appropriate data layer and selecting the edit config source option. You

may also hit the Crtl+E keys after selecting the data layer. This will open a

text editor at the line of the script that defines the data layer you just

opened. Note that this option will only work when you properly refer to the

text editor of your choice. This reference is made in the General settings tab

in the Options menu available from the pull down menu option Tools:

By default, the Crimson Editor (downloadable from: www.crimsoneditor.com)

is configured in the geo-‐DMS. The appropriate line number and file name are

provided to the editor by means of the parameters ( /L:%L “%F”). Make sure

43

that the correct pathname is used to refer to the location where the editor is

installed.

3. All the high_population suitability maps are defined in a single compact text

file with the name high_population.dms. The file looks like this:

Part of the highpopulation.dms suitability script

It contains a header and a series of text lines relating to the actual suitability of

the various land-‐use functions. See for example the suitability script of the

"bebouwd" land-‐use function in the figure above.

A function’s suitability is distinguished in values related to:

1) current land use;

2) neighbourhood maps (distance decay maps);

3) accessibility maps;

4) physical maps;

5) material maps; and

6) policy maps.

These six segments are separately indicated under each land-‐use function.

Note that most available spatial datasets are included in the script, but apart

from the one that relates to current land use all values (the encircled numbers)

44

are set to zero. This means that the suitability of a land-‐use function is

currently only related to present land use. This is a good start because we

normally want to preserve land-‐use functions on their current location.

Remember that we will simulate the total of current land use and additional

claims on a blank map. To include the preferred locations for the future

development of specific land-‐use functions we will however need to add values

to the relevant datasets. Doing this in a structured way that is coherent with

the storyline of the scenario is the objective of the upcoming assignment. For

now we will only practice adjusting the script.

Please only adjust the values in the encircled area, so do not for example change the

km or Percent values at the end of the lines.

As a guideline, you can use the following values for indicating the importance of the

various datasets/policies/maps:

Importance Value

Not important 0.0

Somewhat important 0.5

Important 1.0

Very important 2.0

Of course, you are free to choose values outside these guidelines. For example, if

you really want to stress the importance, you could set the value to 3.0 and see what

the effect is on your simulation result. If a factor has a negative effect on the

suitability you can use negative values. For example the fact that an area is protected

is very important for the suitability of that land, but it diminishes the suitability. In

this case you should use a negative value.

Scroll down to the part of the high_population.dms script that relates to the function

"bebouwd" land use, which is indicated by a green heading with the word

"bebouwd". Change the values for the accessibility to major roads, minor roads,

town and airport from 0 to 1. Make sure you save the changes you made.

Reopen the Land Use Scanner by hitting the ALT and R keys simultaneously or by

going to the File dropdown menu, choose open configuration file, and select the

demo.dms file. DO NOT SAVE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT DEMO.DMS

FILE!

Note Reopening the Land Use Scanner allows the model to take your update in the

suitability-‐script into account. You can now redraw the changed suitability map for

45

"bebouwd" land use in the high population scenario. If you open the accessibility

map you see what the accessibility factors will contribute to the total suitability for

this land use type. To see the total suitability for the land use type you must open

the total map.

Compare the current minimum and maximum values with the original ones that you

wrote down in step 1. Have the values changed as you expected them to? Also check

whether the pattern reflects that of the underlying data-‐layers by adding these to

the map view and compare it with the saved bitmap.

Other scenario components

Apart from suitability, scenarios are defined through their exogenous land-‐use

developments and land-‐use claims.

1. The container ScenarioComponents > Suitability > high_population_

new_infrastructure contains the extra suitability components in case new

infrastructure (roads and dams) are constructed. These extra suitabilities are

added to the suitabilities you have defined in the container high_population.

2. Each land-‐use function demands a certain surface area. For each scenario, the

demand per land-‐use type may vary. For example, in a scenario with higher

population growth, it is presumable that more space will be needed for

residential areas, thus the land-‐use claim (in hectares) for "bebouwd" will be

higher. The container ScenarioComponents > ClaimSets > high_population

contains the land-‐use claims for each land-‐use type.

Note that it is not necessary for all land-‐use claims to add up exactly to the amount

of land available (the current land use), i.e. there can be over-‐demand or over-‐supply

of land.

Simulating future land use

1. In the TreeView, click on Simulations > high_population. Within this container

you will find a results container. When you open this container. you will see

two subcontainers: LandUse and evaluation. The container LandUse contains

result maps of all eleven land-‐use types for 2025 (subdivided in two

subcontainers: Endogenous and model land use).

2. The container evaluation contains a set of evaluation measures, which are

described below:

3. Two table-‐containers, CurrentLanduse and AllocatedLanduse.

4. Double-‐click on the container label AllocatedLanduse and a table listing

allocated land use in hectares will be drawn in the DataView.

46

Copy-‐Paste the contents of this table to Excel by clicking on the Copy-‐Paste

icon now visible in the Toolbar and then selecting Edit > Paste (or

CTRL+V) in Excel. Using both current and allocated land use, you can

numerically see the differences between the endogenous land use in 2012

and in 2025 and calculate percentages et cetera.

• The folders "Bijkaarten"and "Afkaarten" contain each eight difference maps

of the endogenous land-‐use types. The maps shows the locations which are

different between 2012 and 2025.

3. Familiarise yourself with these evaluation measures by opening several maps,

see if you understand the interpretations of the maps you open.

As soon as you draw the map of predominant land use in 2025 or use one of

the evaluation measures, the model will run the scenario and calculate the

results. This may take several minutes. After the results have been calculated,

they are kept in memory and therefore opening other evaluation measures or

displaying other allocated land use will go fast.

Closing a session

In the menu-‐bar, click on File > Exit and choose No in the appearing question box:

DO NOT SAVE THE CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT DEMO.DMS FILE!

47

Assignments – Modelling the future of Suriname

Now you are familiar with the model it is time to bring this new-‐found knowledge

into practice. You are provided with a fully functional copy of the Land Use Scanner

that already contains a basic reference to a socio-‐economic scenario. This scenario is

based on the assumption that there will be a high increase in population. Scenario-‐

specific land-‐use claims have been added to the model and all available spatial

datasets are included in the suitability maps. There is also a variant for this scenario

in which new infrastructure (roads and hydropower plant) is developed. This is the

high_population_with_new_infrastructure variant.

The following two alternatives can be calculated

1. High population

2. High population with new infrastructure

No weights have been added to these maps however. The land-‐use claims and

suitability maps are combined in the allocation module and results are available from

the Simulations container.

Assignment -‐ Simulate land use according to a scenario

To generate maps related to Suriname land use in 2025 we request you to do the

following:

1. All group-‐members should take a look at the list with available spatial data as

included in the table below.

Specify the relevance of each relevant dataset on a scale from 1 (minor

importance) to 2 (very important). Non-‐relevant datasets should keep the

value 0.

It is your task to simulate the future of the Suriname according to a

specific scenario alternative. For this assignment you are asked to:

simulate land-‐use patterns according to one of the two scenarios

alternatives by selecting and weighing the various components of

the suitability maps in order to get a plausible landuse pattern for

Suriname in 2025.

48

Main group Theme Data Values in scripts

landbouw_zwerf

bebouwd

landbouw_grootschalig

landbouw_kleinschalig

landbouw_nat

bos

moeras & savanne bos

Landuse current landuse

open gebied

landbouw_zwerf

bebouwd



landbouw_nat

bos


potential 1 km

open gebied

landbouw_zwerf

bebouwd



landbouw_nat

bos


neighbourhood

potential 5 km

open gebied

49

river_major rivers

river_minor

road_major road

road_minor

town populated places

village

materials

accessibility

other

airport

slope landscape

elevation

physical

soiltype soil

goud minerals

bauxiet

material

timber timber

policy protected areas protected

proposed_road accessibility

accessibility

new_infrastructure

proposed_dam

dam_impact_area

2. Discuss the possibly conflicting views on the relevance of the spatial datasets

in your group and decide upon a joint valuation of the components that make

up your suitability maps.

3. The next step is to actually adjust the suitability maps for all individual land-‐

use types in your scenario. You can do this by changing the appropriate

values in the suitability-‐script (e.g. high_population.dms) in the text editor. As

a start you can use the values that you agreed upon in the previous step.

Note that the data-‐layers that are important for a scenario in general are not

necessarily relevant for all individual land-‐use types. Some data-‐layers will be

important for urban functions others for nature etcetera.

50

Keep in mind that the suitability values reflect the net benefits of a certain

location for a specific land-‐use type. This should provide a rationale (as well

as limits) for your range of suitability values. Moreover, take care that for

computational reasons there is a maximum value for the suitability of land-‐

use types

Finally, save the script and re-‐start the Land Use Scanner (re-‐opening the map

window will not run the script).

4. Take a look at the resulting suitability maps per land-‐use function and discuss

whether these are coherent with your initial thoughts on the scenario.

Results can be analysed by comparing saved bitmaps and statistics of the

situation before and after you change the script.

5. Simulate future land use by running the appropriate simulation (e.g.

Simulations -‐> population_high or population_high_new_infrastructure).

Check the resulting maps on consistency with the storylines of scenario, e.g.

by making maps that depict the land use and the changes from the current

land use. Discuss which adjustments are needed.

6. Adjust the suitability maps and rerun the model until the results correspond

with your views on the scenario.

7. Summarize the results by making characteristic maps of future land use.

Make use of the possibilities for creating evaluation maps that describe land

use, the changes as compared to the current situation and impacts on

protected areas.

8. Prepare a Powerpoint-‐presentation of 5-‐10 minutes with your group in which

you offer your selection of relevant maps. Discuss the results in terms of: the

rationale for the weights you applied to the suitability data layers, the validity

of your results, possible shortcomings in the simulation process, and its

general usefulness for policy-‐purposes.

51

References

Please note that most of the listed references and additional information are

available from: http://www.feweb.vu.nl/gis

Borsboom-‐van Beurden, J.A.M., Bakema, A. and Tijbosch, H. (2007) A land-‐use modelling system for environmental impact assessment; Recent applications of the LUMOS toolbox. Chapter 16 in: Koomen, E., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A. and Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Modelling land-‐use change; progress and applications. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 281-‐296.

Dekkers, J.E.C. and Koomen, E. (2007) Land-‐use simulation for water management: application of the Land Use Scanner model in two large-‐scale scenario-‐studies. Chapter 20 in: Koomen, E., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A. and Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Modelling land-‐use change; progress and applications. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 355-‐373.

De Moel, H., Aerts, J.C.J.H. and Koomen, E. (2011) Development of flood exposure in the Netherlands during the 20th and 21st century. Global Environmental Change 21 (2): 620-‐627.

De Nijs, T., Crommentuijn, L., Farjon, H., Leneman, H., Ligtvoet, W., De Niet, R. and Schotten, K. (2002) Vier scenario's van het Landgebruik in 2030, Achtergrondrapport bij de Nationale Natuurverkenning 2, RIVM rapport 408764 003, RIVM, Bilthoven.

Hoymann, J. (2010) Spatial allocation of future residential land use in the Elbe River Basin, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 37(5): 911-‐928.

Hilferink, M. and Rietveld, P. (1999) Land Use Scanner: An integrated GIS based model for long term projections of land use in urban and rural areas. Journal of Geographical Systems 1(2): 155-‐177.

Koomen, E., Kuhlman, T., Groen, J. and Bouwman, A. (2005) Simulating the future of agricultural land use in the Netherlands. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie 96 (2): 218-‐224.

Koomen, E., Loonen, W. and Hilferink, M. (2008) Climate-‐change adaptations in land-‐use planning; a scenario-‐based approach. In: Bernard, L., Friis-‐Christensen, A. and Pundt, H. (eds.), The European Information Society; Taking Geoinformation Science One Step Further. Springer, Berlin, pp. 261-‐282.

Koomen, E., Koekoek, A. and Dijk, E. (2011) Simulating land-‐use change in a regional planning context. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy 4 (4): 223-‐247. doi: 10.1007/ s12061-‐010-‐9053-‐5.

Koomen, E and Borsboom-‐van Beurden, J. (2011) Land-‐use modelling in planning practice. GeoJournal Library Vol. 101, Springer, Dordrecht.

Lavalle, C., Baranzelli, C., Batista e Silva, F., Mubareka, S., Rocha Gomes, C., Koomen, E. and Hilferink, M. (2011) A High Resolution Land use/cover Modelling Framework for Europe: introducing the EU-‐ClueScanner100 model. In: Murgante, B., Gervasi, O., Iglesias, A., Taniar, D., Apduhan, B.O. (eds.) Computational Science and Its Applications -‐ ICCSA 2011, Part I, Lecture Notes in Computer Science vol. 6782, Springer-‐Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp: 60-‐75.

Loonen, W. and Koomen, E. (2009) Calibration and validation of the Land Use Scanner allocation algorithms, PBL publication number 550026002, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven.

52

Scholten, H.J., Van de Velde, R., Rietveld, P. and Hilferink, M. (1999), Spatial information infrastructure for scenario planning: the development of a land use planner for Holland, In: Stillwell, J., S. Geertman, S. Openshaw (eds.), Geographical Information and Planning: 112-‐134, Springer-‐Verlag, Berlin.

Schotten, C.G.J., Heunks, C., Wagtendonk, A.J., Buurman, J.J.G, De Zeeuw, C.J., Kramer, H. and Boersma, W.T. (2001) Simulating Europe in the 21th century. NRSP-‐2 report 00-‐22 . BCRS, Delft.

Te Linde, A.H., Bubeck, P., Dekkers, J.E.C., de Moel, H., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2011) Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11: 459-‐473.

Xiang, W.N. and Clarke, K.C. (2003) The use of scenarios in land-‐use planning, Environment and Planning B 30: 885-‐909.

53

Appendix 1 Land Use Scanner Background

The Land Use Scanner employs two approaches to simulate the probability that a

certain location is chosen for a specific land use. These two approaches, continuous

and discrete, are described below in different paragraphs. An extensive discussion

on both allocation approaches and a comparison of their performance is provided in

a report by Loonen and Koomen (2009).

A crucial variable for both approaches is the suitability scj for land use of type j in grid

cell c. This suitability can be interpreted to represent the net benefits (benefits

minus costs) of land-‐use type j in cell c. The higher the benefits (suitability) for land-‐

use type j, the higher the probability that the cell will be used for this type. The

economic rationale that motivates this choice behaviour resembles the actual

functioning of the land market. The model is furthermore constrained by two

conditions: the overall demand for the land-‐use functions which is given in the initial

claims and the total amount of land which is available for each function.

Continuous allocation

The original, continuous model employs a logit-‐type approach, derived from discrete

choice theory. Nobel prize winner McFadden has made important contributions to

this approach of modelling choices between mutually exclusive alternatives. In this

theory, the probability that an individual selects a certain alternative is dependent

on the utility of that specific alternative, in relation to the total utility of all

alternatives. This probability is, given its definition, expressed as a value between 0

and 1, but it will never reach these extremes. When translated into land use, this

approach explains the probability of a certain type of land use at a certain location,

based on the utility of that location for that specific type of use, in relation to the

total utility of all possible uses. The utility of a location is in our case expressed as the

suitability for a certain use. In combination with the constraints related to demand

for land and the amount of available land per cell the following doubly constrained

logit-‐model can be formulated:

In which:

Mcj is the expected amount of land in cell c that will be used for land-‐use type j .

54

aj is the demand balancing factor that ensures that the total amount of allocated land for

land-‐use type j equals the sector-‐specific claim.

bc is the supply balancing factor that makes sure the total amount of allocated land in cell c

does not exceed the amount of land that is available for that particular cell.

β is a parameter that allows for the tuning of the model. A high value for β makes the

suitability more important in the allocation and will lead to a more mixed use land

pattern, strongly following the suitability pattern. A low value will produce a more

homogenous land-‐use pattern.

e is the base for natural logarithms (=2.71828 )

scj is the suitability of cell c for land-‐use type j, based on its physical properties, operative

policies and neighbourhood relations.

The outcomes of the model are thus based on various external model results, a

probability approach and many operational choices of the model user. The results

should therefore not be interpreted as an exact prediction for a particular location

but rather as a probable spatial pattern of land-‐use change.

Discrete allocation

The discrete allocation approach allocates equal units of land (cells) to those land-‐

use types that have the highest suitability, taking into account the regional land-‐use

demand. This discrete allocation problem is solved through a form of linear

programming. The solution of which is considered optimal when the sum of all

suitability values corresponding to the allocated land use is maximal.

This allocation is subject to the following constraints:

- the amount of land allocated to a cell cannot be negative;

- in total only 1 hectare can be allocated to a cell; - the total amount of land allocated to a specific land-‐use type in a region should be

between the minimum and maximum claim for that region.

Mathematically, we can formulate the allocation problem as:

subject to:

for each c and j;

for each c;

for each j and r for which claims are specified;

55

in which:

Xcj is the amount of land allocated to cell c to be used for land-‐use type j;

Scj is the suitability of cell c for land-‐use type j;

Ljr is the minimum claim for land-‐use type j in region r; and

Hjr is the maximum claim for land-‐use type j in region r.

The regions for which the claims are specified may partially overlap, but for each

land-‐use type j, a grid cell c can only be related to one pair of minimum and

maximum claims. Since all of these constraints relate Xcj to one minimum claim, one

maximum claim (which cannot both be binding) and one grid cell with a capacity of 1

hectare, it follows that if all minimum and maximum claims are integers and feasible

solutions exist, the set of optimal solutions is not empty and cornered by basic

solutions in which each Xcj is either 0 or 1 hectare.

56

LITERATUUR LAND USE CHANGE

Zie www.spinlab.vu.nl

Key reference voor latijns amerika en ontbossing:

Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize, by Kenneth

M. Chomitz and David A. Gray: http://eprints.eriub. org/ 269/1/gray.pdf

Publications on European Applications

Burman, J.J.G., Wagtendonk, A., EuroScanner: Land use simulation in Europe, in:

Pruoceedings of UDMS 2000, 22nd Urban and Regional Data Management Symposium, UDMS 2000, Delft, 2000.

Springer

Dekkers, J.E.C., Koomen, E., Land-‐use simulation for water management: application of the Land Use Scanner model in two large-‐scale scenario-‐studies, in: Koomen, E., Stillwell, J.C.H., Bakema, A., Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Modelling land-‐use change; progress and applications, GeoJournal Library, Springer, Dordrecht, 2007.

Hoymann, J., Dekkers, J.E.C., Koomen, E., Scenarios der Siedlungsflachenentwicklung im Elbeeinzugsgebiet, chapter 2.5, in: Wechsung, F., Hartje, V., Kaden, S., Behrendt, H., Hansjürgens, B., Gräfe, P. (eds.), Wirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet–Risiken und Optionen. PIK Report, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 2010.

Hoymann, J., Koomen, E., Dekkers, J.E.C., Phan-‐Drost, N., Pilz, H., Hewing, M., Manual ElbeScanner. Simulating residential land use changes in scenarios, Report project GLOWA-‐Elbe III, TU Berlin/VU University, Berlin/Amsterdam, 2010.

Koomen, E., Diogo, V., Hilferink, M., van der Beek, M., EU-‐ClueScanner100m;

model description and validation results. Commissioned by EC-‐JRC, project reference: IES/H/2008/01/11/NC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, 2010.

Koomen, E., Hilferink, M., Van der Beek, M., Perez-‐Soba, M., Verburg, P.H., EU-‐

ClueScanner tutorial; using the 1km application for DG Environment, Geodan Next, Amsterdam, 2010.

Koomen, E., Improvement of the land allocation in the EUClueScanner100 model,

Final Report to the European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, 2011.

Springer Lavalle, C., Baranzelli, C., Batista e Silva, F., Mubareka, S., Rocha Gomes, C.,

Koomen, E., Hilferink, M., A High Resolution Land use/cover Modelling Framework for Europe: introducing the EU-‐ClueScanner100 model, in:

57

Murgante, B., Gervasi, O., Iglesias, A., Taniar, D., Apduhan, B.O. (eds.), Computational Science and Its Applications -‐ ICCSA 2011, Part I, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Springer-‐Verlag, Berlin-‐Heidelberg, 2011.

Landsc.

and

Urb.

Plan.

Mubareka, S., Koomen, E., Estreguil, C., Lavalle, C., Development of a composite index of urban compactness for land use modelling applications, Landscape and Urban Planning, 103 (3-‐4), pp.303-‐317, 2011.

ENVECO

Perez-‐Soba, M., Verburg, P.H., Koomen, E., Hilferink, M., Benito, P., Lesschen, J.P., Banse, M., Woltjer, G., Eickhout, B., Prins, A.-‐G., Staritsky, I., Land use modelling -‐ implementation; Preserving and enhancing the environmental benefits of land-‐use services, Final report to the European Commission, DG Environment, Alterra Wageningen UR/ Geodan Next/ Object Vision/ BIOS/ LEI and PBL, Wageningen, 2010. Remarks: The executive summary can be found here.

Kluwer

Rietveld, P., Scholten, H.J., Stillwell, J.C.H., EuroScanner: A Simulation Model for Land Use Change in Europe, in: Stillwell, J.C.H., Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Land use simulation for Europe, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2001. Remarks: Book can be ordered through the publisher. This book also contains a lot of other interesting chapters on the simulations of Europe's land use.

Kluwer

Schotten, C.G.J., Heunks, C., A national planning application of Euroscanner in the Netherlands, in: Stillwell, J.C.H., Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Land use simulation for Europe, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2001. Remarks: Book can be ordered through the publisher. This book also contains a lot of other interesting chapters on the simulations of Europe's land use.

Schotten, C.G.J., Heunks, C., Wagtendonk, A.J., Buurman, J.J.G., de Zeeuw, C.J.,

Kramer, H., Boersma, W.T., Simulating Europe in the 21th century, NRSP-‐2 report 00-‐22, Delft, 2001.

Stillwell. J.C.H., Scholten, H.J., Land Use Simulation for Europe, GeoJournal Library, ( ), Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2001.

NHESS te Linde, A.H., Bubeck, P., Dekkers, J.E.C., de Moel, H., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Future flood

risk estimates along the river Rhine, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, pp.459-‐473, 2011.

IGI

Global

Verburg, P.H., Lesschen, J.P., Koomen, E., Perez-‐Soba, M., Simulating land use policies targeted to protect biodiversity in Europe with the CLUE-‐Scanner model, in: Trisurat, Y., Shrestha, R.P., Alkemade, R. (eds.), Land Use, Climate Change and Biodiversity Modeling: Perspectives and Applications, IGI Global, Hershey, PA, USA, 2011.

Kluwer Wagtendonk, A.J., Julião, R.P., Schotten, C.G.J., A regional Planning Application of

EuroScanner in Portugal, in: Stillwell, J.C.H., Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Land use simulation for Europe, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2001.

58

Remarks: Book can be ordered through the publisher. This book also contains a lot of other interesting chapters on the simulations of Europe's land use.

Total number of documents: 17.

Publications related to Glowa Elbe

Springer

Dekkers, J.E.C., Koomen, E., Land-‐use simulation for water management: application of the Land Use Scanner model in two large-‐scale scenario-‐studies, in: Koomen, E., Stillwell, J.C.H., Bakema, A., Scholten, H.J. (eds.), Modelling land-‐use change; progress and applications, GeoJournal Library, Springer, Dordrecht, 2007.

Hartje, V., Klaphake, A., Grossmann, M., Mutafoglu, K., Borgwardt, J., Blazejczak, J., Gornig, M., Ansmann, T., Koomen, E., Dekkers, J.E.C., Regional Projection of Water Demand and Nutrient Emissions – The GLOWA-‐Elbe approach, Poster presented at the Statuskonferenz Glowa-‐Elbe II, Köln May 18-‐19,2005.

Reg

Environ Change

Hoymann, J., Accelerating urban sprawl in depopulating regions: a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin, Regional Environmental Change. Papers from the Glowa-‐Elbe Project, 11 (1), pp.73-‐86, 2011.

Hoymann, J., Dekkers, J.E.C., Koomen, E., Scenarios der Siedlungsflachen-‐entwicklung im Elbeeinzugsgebiet, chapter 2.5, in: Wechsung, F., Hartje, V., Kaden, S., Behrendt, H., Hansjürgens, B., Gräfe, P. (eds.), Wirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet–Risiken und Optionen. PIK Report, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 2010.

Hoymann, J., Koomen, E., Dekkers, J.E.C., Phan-‐Drost, N., Pilz, H., Hewing, M., Manual ElbeScanner. Simulating residential land use changes in scenarios, Report project GLOWA-‐Elbe III, TU Berlin/VU University, Berlin/Amsterdam, 2010.

Hoymann, J., Land Use Scanner, GIS Business, 4, pp.34-‐37, 2008.

Journal

of Land Use

Science

Hoymann, J., Quantifying demand for built-‐up area – a comparison of approaches and application to regions with stagnating population, Journal of Land Use Science, pp.1-‐21, 2011.

E&P B

Hoymann, J., Spatial allocation of future residential land use in the Elbe River Basin, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 37 (5), pp.911-‐928, 2010.

TU

Berlin

Hoymann, J., Working Paper on Management in Environmental Planning 29/2010, 2010.

59

OPBOUW KAART HUIDIG GRONDGEBRUIK VOOR LAND USE SCANNER

SURINAME

Martin van der Beek

Introductie

De LandUse Scanner is een instrument dat inzicht geeft in mogelijk toekomstig

grondgebruik. Om zinvolle uitspraken hierover te kunnen doen is een belangrijke

randvoorwaarde dat het huidig grondgebruik goed in beeld is gebracht. Dit huidig

grondgebruik is immers een belangrijke verklarende variabele voor het toekomstig

grondgebruik.

De kaart voor het huidig grondgebruik van Suriname, zoals gebruikt in de LandUse Scanner

is opgebouwd uit verschillende bronbestanden en rekenstappen om deze te combineren. In

dit artikel worden deze stappen beschreven.

Agro en vegetatie

De twee belangrijkste bronnen zijn een Agro grondgebruikskaart en en Vegetatie

grondgebruikskaart van CELOS. Deze informatie is beschikbaar als opgemaakte papieren

kaarten, inclusief legenda’s:

Figuur 1: Agro grondgebruikskaart (bron: CELOS)

60

Figuur 2: Vegetatie grondgebruikskaart

Bron: CELOS

De volgende bewerkingen zijn op de papieren kaarten uitgevoerd:

• Digitaliseren. Beide kaarten zijn gegeorefereerd en gedigitaliseerd als vector data.

• Vergridden. De Land use scanner rekent met grid data. De vector kaarten zijn daarom in

de Land use scanner vergrid. Voor deze toepassing is gekozen voor een gridcel grootte

van 250 bij 250 meter, dit is echter eenvoudig aanpasbaar.

• Opschonen. De gridkaarten bevatten deels kleuren die voortkomen uit de opmaak

elementen van de papieren kaarten, zoals labels, gearceerde vlakken en vlakgrenzen. In

de resultaat kaart willen we dat de kleur van een cel aangeeft welk grondgebruik het

betreft. Opmaakelementen zijn op een geautomatiseerde wijze in de Land use scanner

uit de kaarten gehaald. Hierbij is gebruik gemaakt van potentiaal en afstanden in een

grid bewerkingen. De cellen met kleuren op basis van de opmaakelementen worden zo

ingevuld door de grondgebruiks typen van de omgeving van deze lokaties.

• Herklassificeren. De Agro kaart en de Vegetatie kaart kennen hun eigen klassificatie van

grondgebruikstypen. Voor het model zal een derde klassificatie gehanteerd worden, die

een aantal klassen samen neemt en nieuwe introduceert. In het model worden dan de

volgende klassen onderscheiden:

61

o Bebouwd

o Landbouw zwerf

o Landbouw grootschalig

o Landbouw kleinschalig

o Landbouw nat

o Bos

o Moeras & Savanna bos

o Open Gebied

o Water

o Buitenland

• De laatste twee klassen worden niet mee gemodelleerd, maar blijven onveranderlijk gedurende de te simuleren periode.

• Voor iedere grondgebruiksklasse van zowel de Agro als de Vegetatie kaart is op basis van expert kennis een vertaling gemaakt naar de genoemde grondgebruikklassen van het model.

• Combineren. Na het herklassificeren kunnen de twee kaarten gecombineerd worden tot één grondgebruikskaart. Zoals in de figuren 1 en 2 te zien, is de Agro kaart alleen ingevuld in de gebieden met agricultuur. De Vegetatie kaart is voor het grootste deel van Suriname goed ingevuld, maar bevat weinig onderscheid in de agricultuur klassen. In de combinatiekaart is de Agro kaart als basis genomen en die cellen die niet ingevuld zijn in deze kaart, worden ingevuld op basis van de Vegetatie kaart. De cellen die op basis van beide kaarten niet ingevuld zijn, worden voorlopig geklassificeerd als overig.

Het resultaat van de bewerkingen I t/m V is de volgende kaart (inclusief legenda).

Figuur3: Combinatie gridkaart van de hergeklassificeerde Agro & Vegetatie kaarten

62

Ontbossing

In de resultaatkaart van stap 1 is ontbossing maar deels opgenomen. Recentere gedetailleerde informatie is beschikbaar via een tweetal ontbossingskaarten (voor 2000 en 2008), zie figuur 4. De

getoonde ontbossing is met name het resultaat van mining in gebieden met goudconcessies.

Figuur4: Ontbosde gebieden.

Bron: WWF.

Deze vectorkaart is vergrid en de cellen die in een ontbost gebied gelegen zijn worden als

open gebied geklassificeerd. De overige cellen houden de waarde van de kaart zoals in

figuur 3 weergegeven.

Buitenland

Op basis van de administratieve indeling van bestuursressorten wordt voor iedere gridcel

bepaald of het centroid hiervan in een van de ressorten van Suriname ligt. Zo ja, dan wordt

de celwaarde van het resultaat van stap2 genomen, zo niet dan wordt de cel geklassificeerd

als buitenland.

Bebouwd Gebied

Zowel de Agro als de Vegetatie grondgebruikskaart bevatten geen informatie over

bebouwde gebieden. Omdat verstedelijking een belangrijke ruimtelijke ontwikkeling is, die

niet alleen effect heeft op de omvang van bebouwde gebieden maar ook op de ontwikkeling

van bijvoorbeeld de lanbouw, is het van belang goed inzicht te krijgen in de bron voor de

verstedelijking, veelal de huidige bebouwde gebieden.

63

Het bronbestand dat we hiervoor gebruiken is het Open Street Map netwerk ( zie

http://www.openstreetmap.org). Voor het gebied rondom Paramaribo ziet dit er als volgt

uit.

Figuur 5: Open Street Map rondom Paramaribo (2012)

De getoonde wegsegmenten worden opgedeeld naar residential en non residential. Voor de

residential segmenten wordt om iedere 3 meter een puntlocatie toegevoegd. Voor de non

residential segmenten gebeurt dit om de 15 meter.

Per gridcel wordt vervolgens het aantal puntlocaties geteld. Dit geeft een maat van de

dichtheid van de wegsegmenten. Het idee hierachter is dat een hoge dichtheid van wegen

duidt op een bebouwd gebied.

De berekende aantallen punten per gridcel worden vervolgens ‘uitgesmeerd’ met een

potentiaal bewerking (500 meter in alle richtingen). Dit om te voorkomen dat:

• Een individuele cel met een kruispunt van wegen (dus een hoge dichtheid van punten

in de cel zelf) maar in een omgeving met weinig wegen (dus met een lage dichtheid

van punten in de omgeving) als bebouwd wordt getypeerd.

64

• Een individuele cel met weinig wegen (bijvoorbeeld een park in een stad) maar in een

omgeving met veel wegen niet als bebouwd wordt getypeerd.

De gridcellen die na deze potentiaal bewerking boven een bepaalde drempelwaarde liggen,

worden als bebouwd getypeerd. Voor het gebied rondom Paramaribo betreft het de

volgende blauwe cellen.

Figuur 6: bebouwde cellen op basis van Open Street Map data (2012)

Indien een cel bebouwd is, wordt deze in de grondgebruikskaart als zodanig getypeerd.

65

Rivieren en meren

Voor het binnenwater wordt gebruik gemaakt van een vector bestand van rivieren en meren

(bron: CBL).

Figuur 7: Brokopondo meer in vector bestand rivieren en meren

Dit vectorbestand is gebaseerd op een lijnenbestand, dat een beeld geeft van waar rivieren

en meren zijn, maar grotere watervlakken niet goed opvult (zie figuur 6).

Nadat het vectorbestand met de Land use scanner is vergrid, wordt daarom eerst met een

districting bewerking gekeken naar aaneengesloten gebieden met hetzelfde grondgebruiks-‐

type. Aaneengesloten gebieden, die in de grondgebruikskaart als overig getypeerd waren en

waarvan tenminste 1 cel in het vergridde rivierenbestand water is, zijn in de grondgebruiks-‐

kaart als binnenwater opgenomen. Voor het Brokopondo meer ziet het resultaat er dan als

volgt uit.

Figuur 8: Brokopondo meer op basis van bewerking op vector bestand rivieren en meren

66

6. Dorpen

In stap 4 is bebouwd gebied opgenomen in de grondgebruikskaart voor gebieden met een

subtantiele dichtheid aan wegen (met name Paramaribo). Hiermee zijn de kleinere dorpen

(waarvan de wegen ook veelal ontbreken in OpenStreetMap) nog niet opgenomen in de

grondgebruikskaart.

Hoewel deze dorpen kwa omvang van het grondgebruik beperkt zijn, hebben ze wel vaak

een centrale functie voor een gebied, en zijn ze, mede afhankelijk van een aantal andere

factoren, vaak een startpunt voor verdere ontwikkeling. Daarom worden deze dorpen ook

opgenomen in de grondgebruikskaart.

Als bron hiervoor is gebruik gemaakt van een puntlokatie bestand van dorpen (bron:

Narena). Dit bestand bevat geen informatie over de omvang. Daarom is als tweede bron

Wikipedia gebruikt, van dorpen die hierin voorkomen wordt aangenomen dat deze kwa

omvang over het algemeen iets groter zijn.

Voor de dorpen die niet voorkomen in Wikipedia wordt alleen de cel waarin de lokatie ligt

als bebouwd getypeerd. Voor de dorpen die wel in Wikipedia voorkomen, wordt de cel zelf

plus een cel naar links, rechts, boven en beneden als bebouwd getypeerd, zie figuur 9.

Figuur 9: Bebouwd gebied voor dorpen die wel en niet voorkomen in Wikipedia.

Dorp komt niet voor in Wikipedia

Dorp komt voor in Wikipedia

67

Overig

Na de stappen 1 tot en met 6 is nog ongeveer 1 procent van het Surinaams grondgebied

getypeerd als overig grondgebruik. In het model kunnen we niet veel met deze categorie.

Op basis van een potentiaal bewerking is daarom gekeken naar het meest voorkomende

gondgebruik in de omgeving(met een maximum van 5 km) van de cellen met overig

grondgebruik. Deze cellen worden ingevuld met het meest voorkomende grondgebruik in

de omgeving, opdat een kaart resulteert zonder overig grondgebruik.

Zee

Op basis van de landsgrenzen vanuit Open Street Map, worden de cellen die niet in

Suriname en niet in het buitenland liggen getypeerd als water (zee).

Resultaat

De stappen 1 t/m 8 resulteren in de uiteindelijke basis grondgebruikskaart die gebruikt wordt voor het modelleren. Zie voor de resultaatkaart figuur 10.

Figuur 10: Basis grondgebruikskaart voor land use scanner.

68

GEOLOGIE VAN SURINAME, EEN VOORSTUDIE VOOR LAND USE SCANNER APPLICATIE

Ronnie Lassche en Mathilde Molendijk

Aanleiding

We gaan ervan uit dat er een sterk verband bestaat tussen de aanleg van nieuwe

infrastructuur in Suriname, en de aanwezigheid van minerale rijkdommen. Een kaart met het

voorkomen van mineralen rijkdommen is dan ook één van de kaarten in de Ruimtescanner

Suriname. In een eerdere versie van de Ruimtescanner Suriname hebben we ons wat betreft

mineralen voorkomens gebaseerd op de papieren kaart van Lutchman (2003). Punten

aangegeven op deze kaart hebben we gegeorefereerd en als kaartlaag toegevoegd aan het

model. Op de kaart van Lutchman staat niet aangegeven op welke bron deze minerale

vindplaatsen gebaseerd zijn. In het kader van dit WWF project werd ons gevraagd nader

onderzoek te doen naar bronnen over de locaties van mineralen vindplaatsen: welke

databronnen zijn beschikbaar over het voorkomen van natuurlijke minerale rijkdommen in

Suriname (goud, ijzer, bauxiet, koper, etc.)?

Vindplaatsen van mineralen en metalen

De Planatlas 1988 van Suriname beschrijft in Hfdst 4 (Economische geologie) het voorkomen

van allerlei grondstoffen. Het hoofdstuk begint met de opmerking dat “Voor de meeste van

deze vindplaatsen geldt dat de voorkomens (nu) niet economisch verantwoord winbaar

zijn.” De volgende minerale rijkdommen worden genoemd:

• Goud

o Primair goud, meestal in kwartsaders

o Eluviaal goud (“residuair b.v. in laterietkappen”)

o Colluviaal goud (“in hoekig grind op hellingen”)

o Alluviaal goud (“in grindlagen in kreek-‐ en rivierbeddingen”), het meest

gewonnen goud (1988).

o De verwachting wordt uitgesproken dat er “redelijke mogelijkheden bestaan

voor de ontdekking van primair goud in de gesteenten van de Marowijne

Groep.”

• Bauxiet

• Olie

69

• Tin/tentaliet en amblygoniet (een lithium mineraal) en beryl

• Lateritisch ijzererts, waarvan grote reserves in Suriname voorkomen, die “voorlopig

echter niet rendabel ontgonnen kunnen worden vanwege verwerkingsproblemen en

hoge transportkosten.”

• Chroom-‐ en mangaanvoorkomens (“niet levensvatbaar vanwege te kleien reserves

en/of verwerkingsproblemen en hoge transportkosten.”)

• Koper. De verwachting wordt uitgesproken dat grotere voorkomens in de gesteenten

van de Marowijne Groep gevonden kunnen worden.

• Kyanietvoorkomens worden onderzocht

• Ontginning kleine (kaolien), waarvan grote reserves bestaan onder de bauxietlagen.

• Wit zand en veldspaat voor glasindustrie

• Steenslag voor webverharding en betonindustrie

• Grind en scherpzand (zand voor huizen-‐ en wegenbouw)

• Potentie voor natuursteenindustrie (export graniet)

Werkwijze en resultaten

Op het internet is een zoektocht gehouden naar databestanden en andere informatie over

minerale voorkomens in Suriname. Deze zoektocht heeft tot beperkte resultaten:

• Zo hebben we ons aangemeld bij een goudzoekers site, het Canadian Gold

Prospectors Forum Contest Announcement, maar geen nauwkeurige informatie bleek

beschikbaar.

• Website World Mineral Deposits (WMS formaat) bevat wereldwijde gegevens over

minerale rijkdommen. In figuur 1 hieronder is duidelijk te zien dat hieruit geen extra

informatie voor Suriname te verkrijgen is: het bestand bevat voor geheel Suriname

slechts 1 punt (aluminium voorkomen).

Figure 1: Data Suriname uit World Mineral Deposits database

70

• We hebben een geologische kaart gevonden van Suriname uit 1966, uitgegeven door

de Geologisch Mijnbouwkundige Dienst (Ministerie van Opbouw). Deze kaart is

opgenomen in bijlage 1 (website Wageningen University).

• Verder wordt de kaart van Dahlberg van 1975 genoemd (“Metallogenic Map”), waarin

vindplaatsen van mineralen en metalen worden weergegeven. Deze kaart wordt

genoemd, maar hebben we niet kunnen vinden.

• De Planatlas Suriname van 1988 bevat een kaart B5 met mineralen vindplaatsen, die

gebaseerd is op de kaart van Dahlberg.

• In 2003 heeft Dhr. Lutchman ism Karssen een nieuwe topografische kaart van

Suriname vervaardigd, met daarop aangegeven minerale vindplaatsen. Hij schrijft

ondermeer (Geografie, 01.10.07) over het ritsenlandschap met oude strandwallen

“dat met relatief lage investeringen in cultuur te brengen is en de meest vruchtbare

gronden van Suriname omvat”; en “Daarom zijn grondbeleid en ruimtelijke ordening

op basis van een goed begrip van de ruimtelijke structuur en natuurlijke processen wel

degelijk van belang! Zeker als je bedenkt dat het grootste deel van het ritsenlandschap

al is uitgegeven en dat de overige gebieden veel minder geschikt zijn voor landbouw of

slechts tegen zeer hoge kosten in cultuur te brengen zijn.” Zie onder “bronnen” voor

link naar artikelen in het blad Geografie van de KNAW.

• In een interview met Salomon Kroonenberg1 van 17 nov 2009 noemt hij een project

van de Braziliaanse Geologische dienst voor een digitale geologische kaart van geheel

Zuid Amerika met enorm veel informatie. Helaas hebben we geen verdere informatie

over dit project kunnen vinden. Kroonenberg merkt op dat met name in het

binnenland geen geologisch onderzoek heeft plaatsgevonden de afgelopen 30 jaar.

• In sept 2011 is een project (als onderdeel van het “One Geology Project”) gestart om

de geologie van Suriname in kaart te brengen met het Ministerie van Natuurlijke

Hulpbronnen (NH) , de Stichting Suriname Environmental and Mining Foundation

(SEMIF) en de ADEK Universiteit van Suriname. Het gaat met name om de geologische

kartering van Zuid Suriname in samenwerking met Brazilië, en om de vraag hoe

winbare delfstoffen benut kunnen worden. Het ontwikkelen van een data base is

onderdeel van dit project. Zie onder “bronnen” voor link naar artikelen in Surinaamse

media.

1 Het interview gaat over de vraag of Suriname onder water komt te staan als gevolg van klimaatverandering (“Over vijftig jaar staat het water bij Uitvlugt.”). Kroonenberg merkt op (nav uitblijven geologisch onderzoek in binnenland): “Dat heeft onder andere te maken met de angst in Suriname dat kennis over het binnenland in vreemde handen komt. Maar dat wantrouwen is niet meer van deze tijd, want met satellietfoto’s kun je alles zien. Die magnetische kaarten zijn overal beschikbaar. Het is een illusie dat Suriname een eilandje kan zijn. Zo hebben de Brazilianen van het grensgebied met Suriname gedetailleerde kaarten samengesteld. […] Als er ook maar iets is dat zich van nationale grenzen niets aantrekt, dan is dat wel gesteente. […] Te denken dat je geologische informatie geheim wil houden omdat je daarmee anders maatschappijen in de kaart speelt, dat kon je misschien dertig jaar geleden nog verkondigen, maar niet anno 2009.”

71

De beste geologische bron blijkt de Planatlas te zijn van 1988 (gebaseerd op Dahlberg 1975).

Deze kaart hebben we gegeorefereerd en de minerale voorkomens hebben we

gedigitaliseerd en toegevoegd aan het bronmateriaal. In onderstaande figuur 2 geven we

zowel de punten weer van de kaart van Lutchman als die uit de Planatlas van 1988. In ons

model hebben we besloten om de puntgegevens uit de kaart van Lutchman te verrijken met

gegevens uit de Planatlas.

Figuur 2: Vindplaatsen minerale grondstoffen (combinatie van de kaart van Lutchman en Karssen, en de Planatlas 1988).

Bronnen (geraadpleegd 11/2/2013):

Geologische kaart 1966 (Geologisch Mijnbouwkundige Dienst), te downloaden op: http://library.wur.nl/isric/index2.html?url=http://library.wur.nl/WebQuery/isric/26891

Interview met Salomon Kroonenberg (17 november 2099, “Ik denk dat het met die klimaatverandering wel meevalt”) te raadplegen op: http://www.salomonkroonenberg.nl/doc/ Een-‐menselijk-‐sleutelgat-‐van-‐dertig-‐jaar.html

Interview Lutchman, in het tijdschrift Geografie (KNAW):

− http://www.knag.nl/..fileadmin/geografie/index.php?id=640&tx_ttnews%5Bswords%5D=landbouw&tx_ttnews%5Bpointer%5D=9&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=885&tx_ttnews%

5BbackPid%5D=502&cHash=86f4121570 − http://www.knag.nl/index.php?id=640&tx_ttnews%5Bswords%5D=gis&tx_ttnews%5Bpo

inter%5D=89&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=256&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=502&cHash=

4b9be18c7e

Surinaamse media over het project nieuwe geologische kaart 2011 (“One Geology Project”):

− http://www.starnieuws.com/index.php/welcome/index/nieuwsitem/7075 − http://www.gov.sr/sr/ministerie-‐van-‐nh/actueel/geological-‐mapping-‐on-‐the-‐border-‐

suriname-‐brazil.aspx

Website World Mineral Deposits: http://mapmatters.org/wms/413897

72

Bijlage 1: Geologische kaart Suriname uit 1966, uitgegeven door de Geologisch Mijnbouwkundige Dienst (Ministerie van Opbouw).

Deel 2: Strategic Environmental Assess-‐ments (SEAs)

73

THE COMPREHENSIVE AND PARTICIPATORY APPROACH OF

IMPACT ASSESSMENT: OBJECTIVES, POTENTIALS AND LIMITATIONS

Pitou van Dijck

Introduction: An alternative assessment methodology

Strategic environmental assessments (SEAs) are made in the context of large-‐scale

infrastructure programmes and aim at assessing in advance the potential or

probable impacts on the socio-‐economic condition of the populations in the

expected or proclaimed impact area, and on the condition of eco-‐systems. SEAs have

been undertaken in many countries all over the world during the last two decades.

Several countries in Latin America and financial institutions involved in the co-‐

financing of infrastructure programmes require such assessment studies by law or

institutional regulations.

SEAs differ widely in focus, methodology, comprehensiveness and types of

outcomes. Nevertheless they have a number of characteristics in common. The study

presented here contributes to the development of an alternative or rather

experimental type of SEA, with strong emphasis on comprehensiveness of analysis

and involvement of local populations in the impact area.

Section 2 of this study focuses on the context of strategic environmental assess-‐

ments. Section 3 focuses on the general characteristics of SEAs and the different

types of approaches that may be distinguished. Section 4 focuses on the potentials

and shortcomings of SEAs. Section 5 clarifies the characteristics and potentials of a

comprehensive and innovative approach of an SEA. Section 6 introduces the case of

an experimental type of SEA linked to the proposed road linking Paramaribo with

Manaus. Section 7 presents results of a survey into the northern section of the

impact area along the Suriname river, while Section 8 reflects briefly on a recently

undertaken survey into the southern part, along the Tapanahoni river. Section 9

presents reflections on the perception studies in the impact area. Finally, Section 10

presents overall conclusions and reflections on the potentials of comprehensive and

participatory assessments.

74

Context of the role of strategic environmental impact assessment

The exploitation, processing and trading of natural resources have been major

components of the economic structure of most countries in South America over the

longer term. Agriculture, cattle ranching and mining have shaped the economies in

the region, attracted (foreign) investment, have contributed to the financing of the

government sector, and have dominated exports.

More specifically in recent years, international markets for natural resources have

been growing at a high pace offering opportunities for Latin American countries to

boost revenues. Growth rates of the natural-‐resource based sectors have been

strongly stimulated by real growth in intermediate demand for natural resources to

be processed in manufacturing industry in newly industrializing countries,

particularly in Asia. Moreover, increased levels of income and income per capita in a

large group of developing countries including the BRICs stimulate demand for natural

resources for the production of food or food products. Agricultural crops satisfy

demand for food products either directly or indirectly, as inputs for cattle. Growth of

demand for commodities does not simply follow a linear growth path: demand

elasticities for natural resources differ strongly among commodities, change over

time and may be different at different levels of income per capita. Hence, strong

generalizations on growth prospects are hard to make.

Expansion of areas to produce commodities induces the creation of supportive

facilities and infrastructure such as roads, railways and waterways, ports and

airports, and requires transportation systems for different types of energy including

dams for hydro-‐energy, high-‐voltage transmission systems. Roads play a key role in

the opening of territories and the facilitation of natural-‐resource exploitation in

remote territories. In several ways road infrastructure contributes to a

comprehensive transformation of the impact areas: roads facilitate the actual

construction of the production site, the in-‐migration and transportation of labour,

delivery of intermediate inputs and outputs, the construction of energy production

sites and energy transportation systems (high voltage lines), and connect production

sites with distribution and service centres.

After several decades of relative neglect of the stock of infrastructure as reflected by

relative low levels of investment in construction, renovation, maintenance and

repair, the development of infrastructure, specifically transport infrastructure and

energy-‐related infrastructure, has become a priority in the agenda of national

governments in South America. Infrastructure has become a crucial factor in the

strengthening of positions of countries and enterprises in global markets: the more

75

economies are opened and connected with world markets, the more domestic,

regional and local growth of production and demand depends on world markets, and

the more infrastructure linkages between domestic economies and international

markets are required in support of investment, production, trade and ultimately

income and welfare.

Development of road infrastructure has not only become a priority at the level of

local and national governments, but also at the continental level. Cases in point are

the Brazilian PAC programme and the continental-‐wide IIRSA/COSIPLAN programme.

These road infrastructure programmes may have a significant, widespread and

probably irreversible impact on the socio-‐economic as well as environmental

structure of the areas they cross through. They may even contribute to the rise of

new centres of gravity in the area as well as the demise of traditional socio-‐economic

systems, the loss of eco-‐systems and extinction of species.

Because of the significance of impacts on the short and long-‐term, ex-‐ante

assessment studies are required by several countries and multilateral financial

institutions involved in the construction of roads in South America.

In view of the growth of investment in natural-‐resource exploitation and

construction of related infrastructure, and the plans to extend these activities in the

future, the development and application of timely introduced comprehensive

assessment of potential impacts, and the development of methods to manage

negative as well as positive impacts, has a high priority to avoid social and

environmental costs of economic activity and to enhance the potential positive

welfare effects. Management and control of the process of territorial transformation

may require actions and policies designed and executed at different levels of

governance: national governments, provincial and regional authorities, and

municipalities at the local level. Moreover, non-‐governmental institutions and

organizations (NGOs) may design and execute their own strategies and engage

themselves in activities aimed at influencing policy makers. This holds for the private

(commercial) sector, as well as organizations that represent local communities,

indigenous peoples, or aim at protecting the environment.

In that context strategic environmental assessments (SEA) have a specific and

significant role to play. To start with, a SEA provides knowledge and insight on the

potential impact area. Secondly, it helps to clarify preferences of local inhabitants

and relevant stakeholders in the impact area concerning infrastructure and its

potential positive and negative impacts, as perceived by them prior to actual

76

construction. Third, an SEA facilitates the formulation of actions and policies to

manage impacts.

SEAs

SEAs differ widely in structure, content, and in the roles they play in the process of

design, implementation and execution of policies linked to the construction of

infrastructure, defined broadly, including not only road infrastructure but transport

and energy related infrastructure constructions. The ultimate objective of SEAs is to

enhance the overall welfare effects of these investments in infrastructure and

reduce negative effects. The potentials of such assessment studies and related plans

of action may be substantial, but their effectiveness in realizing the stated objectives

depend on many different factors, ranging from the quality of the study, timing,

integration in overall policies, and institutional capabilities to execute the action plan

over a long range of years.

SEAs are a relatively new instrument or toolbox. They have been applied as a major

policy instrument in the EU, Canada and other developed countries. Experience with

SEAs in Latin America is rather limited. Consequently, the level of expertise, and the

degree of legal and institutional support may be insufficient, which reduces the

probability of usefulness of SEAs. Several countries in Latin America such as Brazil

require an SEA by law. Moreover, financial institutions like the IDB, CAF, FONPLATA,

BNDES require SEAs as a precondition for co-‐financing of infrastructure in Latin

America. The IDB requires participative SEAs, be it that the concept of ‘participative’

lacks clear specification. Moreover, The World Bank requires ‘free, prior and

informed consent’ in case of infrastructure projects that penetrate territories of

indigenous peoples.

SEAs may differ widely and are not standardized. However, in general terms they

involve the following components:

(1) baseline study, i.e. description of economic, social and environmental condition

in the so-‐called impact area of the investment project (a road);

(2) assessment of potential positive and negative impacts;

(3) consultation of local populations;

(4) scenarios for alternatives;

(5) strategic action plan, i.e. proposals to stimulate positive impacts and reduce

negative impacts.

77

In view of the diversity in types of issues to be addressed, particularly in Amazonia,

SEAs are prepared by multidisciplinary teams, with backgrounds in agronomy,

forestry, engineering, anthropology environmental studies, fishery and economics.

Sometimes, knowledge of local languages is required, particularly when indigenas

are among the stakeholders dealt with in the assessment study.

The financing institutions involved in IIRSA differ in their approach towards an SEA.

At least in writing, the IDB favours a rather comprehensive and, moreover,

participatory approach. At the same time guidelines as formulated by CAF suggest

that a type of rapid assessment will do. For more detailed information on different

types of SEAs see Van Dijck 2013.

Potentials and shortcomings of SEAs

To start with, the way the impact area is defined in SEAs may be rather arbitrary. In

some cases the borders of the proclaimed impact area are determined by mountain

ridges or major rivers, that are expected to reduce the stimulating impacts of a road

on land-‐use conversion and economic activity because of their costs-‐increasing

effect on economic transactions. Other SEAs use borderlines of municipalities and

national borderlines to determine potential impact areas, which may be rather

unrelated to the economic spread effects of infrastructure in a region. Although

arguments for selecting these criteria and natural barriers to transactions and

geographical expansion of economic spread effects may be valid, the overall

definition of the impact area is based on ex ante criteria, not on simulated impacts of

variables that probably have a significant impact on the geographical spread of

impacts.

Overviewing available SEAs, it may be concluded in general terms that the

information required for baseline studies is taken from available sources and

generally not created newly in the context of the assessment. In many cases

investment in the knowledge base of the studies is rather limited and hardly any

research is undertaken to create knowledge not yet generated previously.

Environmental assessments are specifically based on available evidence as creation

of information on eco-‐systems and biodiversity may be expensive and time

consuming, particularly in forested areas that are hard to access. Moreover these

studies do not involve a valuation of environmental services.

With respect to the level of participation of the local stakeholders in the assessment,

it may be observed that the participatory approach is limited to consultations of

representatives of communities, most notably at the level of municipalities and

78

governmental agencies, and the major local economic actors. Notwithstanding wide

differences in quality, comprehensiveness and potential impacts of SEAs,

methodological shortcomings and limitations as indicated here, the IIRSA approach is

a step forward as compared to road construction without an SEA (in all cases) or to

the approach pursued in many other policy contexts at the national level. In that

sense, IIRSA is at least a useful experiment. However, there are good reasons to look

critically at IIRSA-‐related SEAs and at IIRSA as a programme. If improved significantly,

the IIRSA approach is a useful starting point for a model for the future, exportable as

well to Africa and Asia.

A participatory approach is applied only in a very limited way in most SEAs. As a

consequence, information in support of the baseline study, and in support of the

strategic action plan, gets lost by neglecting information to be obtained from the

local population. The time lines of SEAs as proposed by CAF and recently by the IDB

will make it very hard to involve the local population in an optimal ways.

Shortcoming in timing hamper the potential effectiveness of an SEA to contribute to

welfare; many assessment studies come up with results at a stage in which changes

in trajectory or modes of transport are hard and costly to implement

Finally, and most seriously, the time dimension rather than the spatial dimension

complicates a SEA and threatens its relevance: roads take a long time to be built, and

impacts – due to induced private investment – follow suit. Put differently, the

impact-‐generating process bypasses by far the time horizon of policy makers. For

that reason it is to be feared that SEAs function primarily as an element in the

decision-‐making process in favour of receiving approval and finance in support of

road construction, not necessarily as a mechanism to maximize the potential welfare

effects of the road.

As put above, the ultimate objective of an SEA is to formulate a series of initiatives

and interventions to be put together in a plan of action, in order to maximize the

welfare enhancing impact of investment in infrastructure. However, a number of

critical factors limit the potential contribution of the plan of action. First, there is an

obvious risk of the plan being merely a list of wishes of several groupings in the

impact area, rather than a coherent plan for investments, regulations, and

interventions. Second, financial resources may be lacking to introduce the required

or requested measures and initiatives. Third, the long period of implementation

complicates actual implementation, as it requires institutions and planning

procedures to manage over the longer term. Finally, It is hard to see how the

strategic action plan can function as a real instrument to implement required

79

measures if implementation is not a conditionality for external financing of the

overall infrastructure project.

The potential real world contribution of SEAs in managing impacts and enhancing

welfare effects is related to the following crucial aspects: the sheer size of the

potential impact area; the dependence of the populations living in the potential

impact area on the environment for their livelihood; the potential value of the eco-‐

systems and the services they provide at the local, regional and even global level; the

type of actions proposed to make outcomes differ from outcomes in a scenario

without corrective policy interventions; and the degree of integration of an SEA and

related plan of action in overall policy making and decision-‐making. These points will

briefly be clarified below.

The (potential) impact areas of IIRSA roads may involve substantial parts of the

national territory of countries. In many cases the impact area is studied only to a

limited extend both in terms of environmental as well as socio-‐economic aspects.

Particularly in Amazonia, the assessment in the context of a SEA is hampered by the

sheer size of the potential impact area, limited possibilities to visit and study

potential impact areas and by the limited availability of information on aspects

relevant for appropriate and fairly comprehensive assessment. In many cases

financial limitations and time constraints reduce options for substantial assessment

studies. At a more fundamental level, it may be observed that the lack of markets for

many environmental services (indirect use values) obstruct the valuation of the

environment in order to compare the net welfare impact of alternative uses of the

environment. Lack of insights into future behaviour of markets for direct use values

(including demand for natural resources, timber, food) create a comparable problem

for optimalization of decisions concerning the use of the environment in the

(potential) impact area.

Reviews of SEAs in South America and other continents suggest that the

effectiveness of SEAs can be enhanced in several ways. To contribute to the decision-‐

making process, SEA-‐related information need to be generated and made available

in time, preferably prior to final decision-‐making on routing, selection of mode of

transport and related issues. Real world experience shows that most SEAs are

started at the moment that decisions on mode of transport and routing of transport

have already been taken, thus reducing their potential meaning. Baseline studies and

surveys that are inherent components of SEAs may play a key role in the planning

and preparation of optimal routing of a corridor. By taking into account the

objectives and priorities of different interest groups, routing can be optimalized as

80

compared to routings based on priorities of a selected number of stakeholders,

involving only the national government and its most significant partners in the

process. Comprehensive and timely involvement of stakeholders may consequently

result in higher levels of satisfaction with the road project and more cooperation by

stakeholders in the impact area. Such a process may take economic, social,

commercial, technical, transport-‐related, and environmental dimensions into

consideration.

Moreover, rather than focusing mainly on mitigation of negative impacts, an SEA

preferably would aim in a pro-‐active manner at the generation of information on the

preferences and objections of different groups of stakeholders concerning routing.

Creation of suitability maps on the basis of spatial multi-‐criteria is a useful tool in this

process, allowing for the development of a least-‐costs path or path of least

resistance. In this context, attention is required to involve the priorities and concerns

of local inhabitants and of indigenas. Special regulations and principles need to be

observed like free prior and informed consent of indigenas to be obtained by

government prior to penetrating their territory with a road or other mega


Towards a comprehensive and innovative type of SEA

Four key dimensions of the alternative approach are briefly introduced here:

(1) a fully participatory approach based on comprehensive information of

stakeholders;

(2) the use of GIS mapping to assess potential impacts of (alternative) routings;

(3) modelling of impacts to generate future expansion of the potential impact area;

and

(4) optimal timing of the assessment to facilitate integration of findings in the

preparatory stage of the infrastructure programme and to support implementation

of key elements of the so-‐called strategic action plan, which is among the key

outputs of the participatory SEA.

The participatory approach is an inherent element of IIRSA-‐related SEAs. It involves both

provision of information on the infrastructure plans, and the collection of information from

the population to improve these plans.

By informing the local population about the infrastructure plans, a participatory approach

may contribute to transparency and reduce uncertainty and misconceptions. By doing so, it

may enhance efficiency and speed up implementation. At the same time, organizing series

of meetings with stakeholders in the impact area may be time-‐consuming and costly.

81

The role of interviews and discussions with the local population and its representatives may

be particularly significant when assessing perceived potentials and risks, and formulating a

plan of action in support of positive income potentials and to mitigate negative

environmental and other welfare-‐reducing impacts. Specifically, insight may be obtained

about transport facilities and bottlenecks, and the economic, social and environmental risks

involved in improving access to the area.

GIS maps can function as communications and information tools in a participatory approach

of a SEA: they may raise awareness among the local population in the impact area about the

potential consequences of impacts in territories for their livelihood. Spatial information on

trajectories of infrastructure and on the potential impacts of these works may as well

facilitate the formulation of a strategic action plan. Also, these maps can clarify to policy

makers and the general public at large what the implications may be of the plans, and how

rerouting, adjustment, or additional measures may contribute to welfare effects and reduce

negative implications.

To facilitate this process, the GIS maps can be included in the educational GIS-‐based system

EduGIS. The system is accessible at www.edugis.nl and includes several layers that facilitate

spatial analysis of potential impacts of interventions. Cases in point are GIS maps showing

the locations of newly constructed infrastructure, mining and logging concessions. Layers

can be constructed in a way that visualize the distance to or overlap with economic and

environmental zones like agricultural areas, forests, hunting grounds and rivers nearby

villages in the potential impact area. Such an approach may contribute to the understanding

of the multiple consequences of interventions for the livelihood of the population.

Finally, the data generated in this project have been used as inputs for the

ClueScanner model to assess potential future spatial impacts of the road – and

eventually of other types of interventions with a spatial impact -‐ on territory along

its trajectory. This GIS-‐based land use model generates spatial projections for

alternative scenarios, depending on a series of variables related to land suitability,

physical factors, infrastructure, markets, population concentrations, and government

policies. The basic assumption is that multiple land use types (built area, agriculture,

forest, nature, water etc.) compete for the same limited amount of land. The

regional demand and the local suitability for the land use type determine the price a

land user is ‘willing to pay’ for a specific land unit.

By way of experiment, a comprehensive, participatory SEA has been designed and

undertaken by Van Dijck at CEDLA. See Van Dijck 2011 and 2013. The SEA attempted

at assessing impacts of a planned road that aims at connecting Paramaribo,

Suriname, with the south of Suriname and ultimately with Manaus, Brazil. Hence, the

function of the planned road is to connect the capital city with a concentration of

82

population living in the forest along the Suriname river; to construct a direct

connection between Suriname and northern Brazil; and to facilitate hydro-‐energy

works in the south of the country, involving roads, dams, a canal, and electricity

plants. The SEA was undertaken in cooperation with IVM-‐VU, EduGIS and Object

Vision, all in Amsterdam. Partnership with these institutions has facilitated the

construction of GIS maps and economic-‐spatial modelling of the spatial impacts of

roads. Moreover, a substantial survey study was undertaken among the inhabitants

in the potential impact area with Stichting Equalance in Paramaribo.

Aim of the experiment was:

(1) to show that significant improvement in the participatory level can be realized in

an effective and efficient manner,

(2) that GIS maps and specifically modelling exercises can contribute significantly to

the understanding of potential impacts, and

(3) may contribute as well to participation of local inhabitants.

The experimental SEA was inspired by the Corredor Norte SEA in Bolivia, executed by

DHV South America. Bert van Barneveld, director DHV South America at the time has

been partner in the research project supporting the experimental SEA since its start.

The experimental SEA has shown that a substantial population survey based on a

significant and representative population sample can be organized rapidly and at

relatively low costs. Also, it has been shown that the level of awareness of local

population can be supported by applying visual means such as GIS maps, results of

modelling exercises presented in power points or short movies, and a video movie.

Visual mechanisms are useful in view of low levels of literacy in the interior. With

internet facilities becoming available in many locations, GIS-‐based information

mechanisms like EduGIS become accessible for local populations, allowing locals to

study for themselves maps that show government plans for infrastructure

development, and locations of concessions for timber and natural resource

exploitation. Moreover, a brief and easily accessible visual summary of major results

of the SEA type of project, put together in a short video movie, facilitates

understanding by a wider audience of potential impacts and of the perceptions of

inhabitants of the potential impact area.

By mapping the possible locations of the future road corridors -‐ or for that matter of

hydro-‐energy works, mining sites and the like -‐ and by showing overlaps with the

location of municipalities and areas of significance for livelihood strategies of locals,

the awareness concerning the implications of proposals and plans may be raised

83

among both the population in the potential impact area as well as policy makers. For

such reasons, GIS maps have been designed showing areas with logging and mining

concessions, locations of planned roads, biodiversity values, locations with expected

gold reserves, and population centres. These maps are freely and publicly accessible.

See the EduGIS website (www.edigus.nl) where such maps have been uploaded that

are related to proposed road between Paramaribo and Manaus.

The modelling exercise with the Ruimtescanner model enables the simulation of the

spatial development of the impact area in the course of time. Rather than simply

assuming a specific impact area – bordered by rivers, mountain ranges, national

borders or borders of municipalities – the model generates the shape and size of the

impact area on the basis of a range of variables that reflect the functioning of the

physical and socio-‐economic drivers of land use conversion and deforestation.

Clearly, the impact of several relevant variables, like prices, technological

development, soil productivity, is hard to assess in the longer term.

Reviews of SEAs in South America and other continents suggest that the

effectiveness of SEAs can be enhanced in several ways. To contribute to the decision-‐

making process, SEA-‐related information need to be generated and made available

in time, preferably prior to final decision-‐making on routing, selection of mode of

transport and related issues. Real world experience shows that most SEAs are

started at the moment that decisions on mode of transport and routing of transport

have already been taken, thus reducing their potential meaning. Baseline studies and

surveys that are inherent components of SEAs may play a key role in the planning

and preparation of optimal routing of a corridor. By taking into account the

objectives and priorities of different interest groups, routing can be optimalized as

compared to routings based on priorities of a selected number of stakeholders,

involving only the national government and its most significant partners in the

process. Comprehensive and timely involvement of stakeholders may consequently

result in higher levels of satisfaction with the road project and more cooperation by

stakeholders in the impact area. Such a process may take economic, social,

commercial, technical, transport-‐related, and environmental dimensions into

consideration.

Moreover, rather than focusing mainly on mitigation of negative impacts, an SEA

preferably would aim in a pro-‐active manner at the generation of information on the

preferences and objections of different groups of stakeholders concerning routing.

Creation of suitability maps on the basis of spatial multi-‐criteria is a useful tool in this

process, allowing for the development of a least-‐costs path or path of least

84

resistance. In this context, attention is required to involve the priorities and concerns

of local inhabitants and of indigenas. Special regulations and principles need to be

observed like free prior and informed consent of indigenas to be obtained by

government prior to penetrating their territory with a road or other mega


Involvement of local stakeholders in a SEA and a strategic action plan is a

requirement in IIRSA-‐related procedures. As indicated earlier, financial partners like

the IDB and CAF require some sort of participatory approach in the SEA, but their

specific requirements differ. Moreover, according to World Bank regulations, in case

indigenous peoples live in the impact area, free, prior and informed consent is

required. The concept of participatory approach is somewhat ambiguous and

opaque and may imply different degrees of involvement of local stakeholders.

Consultations of the communities may be undertaken in different ways, ranging

from information exchange with representatives and selected local stakeholders to a

representative survey among the local populations in which their preferences and

priorities for a strategic action plan are assessed.

According to IIRSA Indicative Territorial Planning, a strategic environmental and social

evaluation -‐ referred to as a SEA in this book -‐ involves the creation of an enabling space for

constructive dialogues and key participants in the potential impact area. See IIRSA 2009 pp.

55-‐62. The premises for making such an assessment includes the collection and use of

secondary information and information provided by key participants.

The approach proposed by the CAF aims at generating results in a relatively short

period of time (CAF June 2008). The methodology assumes a team of experienced

specialists, and the use of secondary information and information of key

stakeholders on critical issues. CAF proposes a participatory approach of the SEA, a

stakeholder involvement through consultation and dissemination. The objectives of

these consultations are the validation of information, identification of scenarios,

tendencies, risks and opportunities, identification of sensitive issues, actions to

enhance opportunities, institutional capacities, and finally the validation of strategic

action proposals. As the allotted period of time for the stage of validation and

consult is two to three weeks, it is hard to see how the participatory approach could

possibly involve broad segments of the local populations.

Clearly, the strategic action plan is supposed to reflect priorities and concerns of the

communities in the impact area. A comprehensive and participatory SEA may involve

a baseline study of their socio-‐economic living conditions and mapping of areas vital

85

for their livelihood. This exercise may contribute to knowledge about eco-‐systems,

biodiversity and environmental hotspots in the area.

Opinions or perceptions on impacts may differ strongly among members of

communities: an intervention may be assessed positively or negatively according to

its economic, social and environmental impacts and may be weighted differently.

Clearly, official representatives of communities, non-‐governmental organizations

involved in the communities, and economic agents all have widely different interests

and perceptions, as argued in Chapter 4 and shown in the case studies in this

volume. Hence, involving only representatives may cause biases in the impact

assessment and the strategic plan of action. A representative survey among the

members of the community may be the solution.

At the same time, locals may have only little information about the planned

intervention like the construction of a road, or little knowledge of its potential

effects for a variety of reasons including lack of general knowledge, skills, interests,

or experience. Also, the intensity and spread of impacts are hardly known ex ante,

not even to the decision-‐makers and those responsible for the execution of the plan.

This may negatively affect the value and relevance of perception studies among local

communities in the impact areas, and the results of the representative survey.

Schematically the flow of information as envisaged in the experimental SEA

presented here may be depicted as in Figure 1 below. In the first stage of the process

the local community is informed about the plan to construct a road by the SEA team.

Second, the SEA team starts preparing a baseline study by collecting information on

the ‘environment’ and the livelihood of the population involving information on

socio-‐economic aspects, dependence of the local population on the local

environment involving eco-‐systems; interaction for social and economic reasons with

communities, markets and economic centres elsewhere, transport needs.

These data are processed into GIS maps and used for modelling and simulation of

the potential impact area, as shown in other papers presented in this panel. GIS

maps may be used to inform local populations and others including decision-‐makers

on the infrastructure programme, to show several potential types of impacts from

the environmental and socio-‐economic perspectives. Ideally, the maps constructed

by the SEA team will be made available to the local population prior to the start of

the survey study. To facilitate access to information, a video movie may be made to

inform the population about plans and potential impacts. The movie may show the

essential results of the survey among the local population regarding their

perceptions of potential advantages and disadvantages of the construction of a road

86

or for that matter any other infrastructural intervention like hydro-‐energy project,

railway, port or mining operation. Also, the movie can visualize the impacts and the

spatial dimensions of the impact area, and its development in the course of time or

according to different scenarios. The movie may as well visualize for ‘the rest of the

population ’outside the impact area the size of impacts and the spread of direct and

indirect effects of the intervention. However, in view of time requirements of

producing video movies and integrating the data on potential impacts, it will be hard

to produce such a movie before the survey study is started.

The survey among representatives of the population or, as is the case here, among a

significant sample of locals taken at random, is aimed at revealing the perceptions

regarding potential positive and negative impacts of a road, for the sake of

formulating adequate policies and initiatives to address such potentials. This

information needs to be processed into a data system, to be shared among all in

order to formulate the priorities for the strategic action plan in a participatory

manner.

If undertaken in a well-‐prepared way, with a small team of experts that knows how

to communicate with the local communities, and has the capabilities to apply

interview techniques and to process the information statistically, this process needs

not necessarily be excessively time consuming or financially costly.

On the basis of this information, several additional steps may be taken to inform

local communities, policy makers, route planners or society at large. As explained by

Molendijk and Lassche in their paper, GIS maps with relevant information concerning

potential impacts on the livelihood of the local communities can be made accessible

to the members of the community by means of EduGIS or other systems of digital

information sharing. Moreover, results of modelling studies of impact areas can be

visualized in maps or a video movie to explain local communities about the longer-‐

term change in the areas adjacent to their villages or towns or the land on which

they are dependent for their livelihood. Ultimately this may result in adjustments in

the plans or in complementary measures.

Case of an experimental SEA: The impact assessment of the Suriname-‐Brazil connection

This section presents elements of an experimental type of assessment of the

probable or potential impacts of two recent initiatives, that are taken into conside-‐

ration or are prepared by selected agencies and institutions, in order (1) to develop

road infrastructure and (2) infrastructure to expand hydro-‐energy production in

Suriname.

87

Figure 1. Schematic presentation of information flows in a participatory approach.

In general terms, the plan for constructing a road between Paramaribo and the

border between Suriname and Brazil nearby Vier Gebroeders is not particularly new.

At many different opportunities in the past plans for such a road and for hydro-‐

energy works have been proposed or announced in the past.

The IIRSA Suriname Country Paper on Selected National Routes of Suriname (2003)

prioritizes a north-‐south linkage from Paramaribo to the Suriname-‐Brazil border and

ultimately to Santarem at the Amazon river. This proposal, however, has not been

accepted and included in the IIRSA agenda but is nevertheless still among the

priorities of the Suriname government and subject of deliberations with Brazil. By

December 2010 the Suriname government announced its plan to construct a road

and railway connection with Brazil outside the context of the IIRSA Agenda in

cooperation with Chinese constructors and facilitated by a Chinese loan programme.

Rather than referring to Santarem, the Suriname government refers to Manaus as

the main connecting point in Brazil in its more recent references to this plan.

In general terms, improved access over the road to the southeast of Suriname has

been included in the MOP 2006-‐11. The Plan mentions as the expected main effects:

improved access to health care and welfare, improved security for the local

88

population, and enhanced control over the small-‐scale gold-‐digging activities.

Regarding economic opportunities, the Plan refers to improved economic

integration, development of non-‐timber forest products and eco-‐tourism (MOP

2006-‐2011, 2006, pp. 107-‐108).

In December 2010 a new Suriname government announced its intention to

cooperate with the Chinese constructor China Harbor to create a deep-‐sea harbour

nearby Paramaribo, and to build a road and railway from Atjoni to the Brazilian

border nearby Vier Gebroeders. The proposed procedure indicates a high priority for

rapid execution of the plan. So far, however, implementation is far behind schedule.

Not unlikely, problems with energy supply will be a major factor to start

implementing elements of the plan directly linked to hydro-‐energy supply.

Specific information concerning timing, objectives, trajectory, and financing have not

been made available to the public, and so far no decisions in these areas have been

made. Hence, the precise trajectory is not known. However, parts of the trajectory,

Paramaribo-‐Pokigron/Adjorni already exist for a long time as an unpaved road. It

should be noted that the primary rationale for the construction of the more

southernly located segments of the trajectory is not so much rooted in creating a

transport linkage with Manaus in support of the transito function of the port of

Paramaribo, but in facilitating hydro-‐energy works in the region. Hence, that specific

function is the primary determinant of the specific trajectory of the road. This

implies that the segment of the road that links up with potential sites that are

relevant for the production and transport of hydro-‐energy have been studied while

the segment that connects these locations with the Suriname border with Brazil have

not yet been identified and decided upon. See Map 1 and Map 2.

Plans to enlarge the capacity to produce hydro-‐energy by diverting the water flow of

the Tapanahoni River into the Brokopondo Storage Lake have been revitalized by

engineering studies by Lothar Boksteen, and have been included in the Multi-‐Annual

Development Plan 2006-‐2011. Two stages are distinguished. In the first stage, the

water flows of the Tapanahoni River and the Jai Creek are diverted into the

Brokopondo storage lake to increase its capacity and make better use of the

hydroelectric power plant at the Afobaka dam. In a second stage, the water flow of

the Tapanahoni river may be used to generate hydro-‐energy in additional power

plants. The outcomes of studies into the impact of these measures upon the

livelihood of communities in the area and on those that are dependent on the water

from these rivers will be decisive (MOP 2006-‐2011, 2006, p. 117). According to the

Tapajai Hydro Plan, the existing hydro-‐electrical power plant at the Afobaka dam will

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be complemented by a second power plant, and six dams with five additional hydro-‐

energy power plants will be constructed. In the rainy season, these five power plants

along the upstream Tapanahoni River, the Jai Creek and Marowijne Creek will supply

hydro-‐electricity. During that part of the year the Afobaka plants are not in operation

and water is collected in

Map 1. Probable road trajectory Paramaribo – Brazil-‐Suriname border and proposed hydro-‐energy works.

Source: Lothar Boksteen,

the storage lake. During the dry season, the five plants upstream will not be in

operation and the two power plants at the Afobaka dam are in use. Both complexes

have the capacity to supply 305 megawatt of electricity.

To construct the upstream dams, extension of the road network south of Pokigron

will be required along the left bank of the Suriname River and more to the south

towards Jai Creek and the Tapanahoni dam. Roads and power transmission lines

along the roads will require deforestation of approximately 1700 hectares, and

inundation will impact on 25,660 hectares more. As a consequence of the creation of

the Tapanahoni storage lake, part of the village of Palumeu with about 250

inhabitants will possibly be inundated. For a presentation of these proposals see

MOP 2006-‐2011, 2006 pp. 117-‐18, and Boksteen 2009. So far no roads exist in the

interior south of the storage lake and all transport is by river or air. By modelling a

preliminary insight into potential impacts has been assessed, as discussed below.

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Map 2. Infrastructure programmes, plans and proposals.

Source: Maps generated for the Cedla research project Strategische Analyse en Participatief Actieplan voor Zuid Oost Suriname, 2011.

The need of capacity enlargement of the Brokopondo Lake critically depends on

future demand for electricity in Greater Paramaribo, the bauxite processing industry

in nearby Paranam and foreign demand for electricity. The future of the bauxite

processing industry in particular is among the major unknowns in this context. The

SEA concludes that: ‘At this moment, there is no clear rationale for these projects

and the negative impacts at the locations of Jai Creek and Tapanahoni River are

expected to be very significant.’ (Royal Haskoning et al. 2007, p. 21). Loss of habitat

and pristine forest by flooding, and reduction of CO2 sink are among the socio-‐

economic and biophysical trade-‐offs. To speed up possible implementation of these

energy plans, the MOP proposes:

(1) to speed up procedures to inform the local population about the plan with the

objective to make them supporters of the plan;

(2) to organize the financing of the plan; and

(3) to start field studies.

The expected duration of the studies is about one year and these studies will include

a social and environmental impact assessment. It is estimated that the engineering

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works will require two to three years, to realize stage 1 of the plan (MOP 2006, pp.

117-‐18; Boksteen 2009).

Exploitation of natural resources adds to the rationale of road construction to the

south. Gold deposits are located nearby the Tapanahoni River at about 60 kilometres

from the border with Brazil. Manganese and iron ore deposits are located in the

south nearby the Tapajai Creek and Upper Tapanahoni River, and west of the

Palumeu River at about 30 kilometres from the border with Brazil.

Moreover, copper, manganese, iron ore, reserves are located in the south while

logging cattle raising and palm oil production have been referred to as additional

options for economic exploitation. More specific studies are required to substantiate

these claims made in the IIRSA Suriname Country Paper referred to above. The

announcement by the government to construct a railway, in combination with a

road, may be related to the potential exploitation of these reserves.

Finally, there are strategic and political reasons for Suriname to opt for a direct road

connection with Brazil. Suriname prefers to have direct access to Brazil and to be

independent from its neighbouring countries to the east and west, with which it has

had a long-‐term conflict about demarcations of national territory. Moreover, in the

view of the Suriname government, the road to the south creates the possibility of

connecting directly with the Brazilian highway system, specifically the BR-‐163 and

BR-‐210, the so-‐called Perimetral Norte. See Map 3.

Brazil’s objections – at least in the past -‐ to this proposal are probably linked to the

creation of the Tumucumac Reserve at the Brazilian side of the Brazil-‐Suriname

border in the early 1990s, and to Brazil’s priority for the Manaus-‐Boa Vista-‐

Georgetown hub as an efficient and probably more costs-‐efficient connection with

the Caribbean Sea. Clearly, the Manaus-‐Georgetown trajectory passes through an

economically well-‐developed area in northern Brazil, while the level of economic

activity along the alternative connection preferred by the Suriname government is

limited. This, however, may change for several reasons: environmental protection is

a political priority that may change in time, particularly since the area has already

been damaged by illegal logging and gold digging. Availability of natural resources

may be a reason to change the degree of environmental protection. Technological

development in combination with high world market prices may induce agriculture

and cattle production in northern Brazil. Moreover, serious delay in the

improvement of the Lethem-‐Georgetown road and assessments of political stability

may enhance Brazil’s interest in an alternative link with the Caribbean Sea.

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Map 3. Linking northern Brazil with Suriname: existing infrastructure.

Source: See Map 2.

An earlier attempt at assessing potential impacts along the northern segment of the

north-‐south infrastructure linkage, between Paramaribo to Pokigron, was made in

2007 (Royal Haskoning et al. 2007). This investigation belongs typically to the

category of a quick-‐scan. That quick-‐scan SEA only analyses the northern stretch of

the north-‐south corridor up to Pokigron/Atjoni, which is not included in the IIRSA

agenda. The rest of the trajectory, a stretch of 250 kilometres, which cuts through

the forested interior to the Suriname-‐Brazilian border, is considered ‘a long-‐term

concept’ without a formal accepted routing (Royal Haskoning et al. 2007, p. 41).

Hence, no investigation into potential risks and opportunities related to that

trajectory has been undertaken in the context of the rapid assessment. According to

the IIRSA Suriname Country Paper (2003, pp. 11-‐12 and 17-‐19) the justification of the

north-‐south link as proposed by the Suriname government is essentially economic:

creating a connection with the market of Brazil and Mercosur; and the development

of the interior by facilitating logging, cattle ranching, palm oil production,

exploitation of sweet water resources, development of tourism, and mining of iron

ore, gold, granites and bauxite.

Our experimental study of the development of infrastructure was pursued in two

stages. Stage 1 focuses on the northern segment of the envisaged road connection

between Paramaribo and Manaus, Brazil. Stage 2 focuses on the southern segment

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of the road, specifically the section Palumeu – Tepu along the Tapanahoni river, as

well as the hydro-‐energy works in the area adjacent to the Tapanahoni river, the so-‐

called TapaJai plan. Work on the northern road segment of the road segment was

started in 2010 and finalized in 2011. Activities related to the second segment have

not yet started although a number of studies and tests have been performed and

some information meetings with local authorities and members of communities

have taken place.

To facilitate the assessment, a series of GIS maps has been produced that present

socio-‐economic and biophysical characteristics of the potential impact area, and the

drivers of land-‐use change and deforestation. The maps are used for analytical

purposes in the context of baseline studies for a SEA and may be used as well to

inform the local population in the impact area, policy makers and the general public

at large. Finally, the data are used to assess potential longer-‐term impacts of the

road in a spatial-‐economic model.

Moreover, two public consultations by means of a survey has been undertaken

among the population at the Upper Suriname River and among the populations

along the Tapanahoni River, focusing on the perceived potential advantages and

drawbacks of road construction, and the preferences for actions to enhance the

overall potential welfare effects of road construction. Research has been organized

in cooperation with local researchers and others experienced in investigating the

area,

Survey into the impact area along the Suriname River

A survey has been undertaken to investigate the perceptions among the population

concerning the potential impacts of a road to be constructed parallel to the Upper

Suriname River. The survey area stretches from Pokigron/Atjoni at the southern

edge of the Brokopondo Storage Lake to Semoisi, about 50 kilometres up river to the

south. Small, open wooden boats are the dominant transportation system for cargo

and passengers throughout this relatively densely populated forested area. By the

time the survey was undertaken, September 2010, no clear proposals or plans for

road construction in that area had been made public by the government: the survey

anticipated the possible, maybe probable -‐ extension of the road from Paranan to

Pokigron/Atjoni, that was being paved at the time. Pokigron/Atjoni is a regional

service centre and hub in the bi-‐modal transport system: no roads exist to service

traffic beyond that point southward.

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In the overall area along the river between Pokigron/Atjoni and Semoisi about

15,000 to 21,000 people are living concentrated in 58 locations. The questionnaire

focuses on 20 locations with a total population of 15,630 persons and probably 2,605

households. The sample size is 538 persons, thus representing 3.44 per cent of the

population and 20.6 per cent of the households in these villages. The sample

population involves only 39.4 per cent man which is typical of the population

structure in this area where many men leave (temporarily) to find job and income

opportunities elsewhere. Of the sample population, 13.9 per cent is below 27 years

of age, 32.4 per cent below 39 years of age, and 23 per cent over 60 years of age. For

all data see Equalance 2010. A remarkable high percentage of the interviewed

population (24 per cent) has no work, or is involved in irregular and quasi-‐legal types

of dealings (13 per cent), while 21 per cent consider themselves entrepreneur; 13

per cent is involved in semi-‐commercial agriculture; and 11 per cent finds a sort of

occupation as a local authority, and 2.4 per cent of the sample population is

detached employee. From this it follows that entrepreneurial activities, agriculture,

trading, and governance-‐related activities are the main types of economic activities

in the area. Logging is of little economic significance.

The questionnaire focused specifically on the perceived impacts the construction of

a road along the river may have on economic opportunities like expansion and

diversification of production; on transportation costs, frequency and duration; on

employment and income opportunities; on health, social and cultural aspects of the

livelihood including opportunities to visit a hospital or clinic, school, church, family

members; on security and crime; on the position of local authority, customs and

traditions; and on the environment.

Apart from individual interviews at home, with no one else present, and based on a

pre-‐arranged list of questions, meetings with focus groups were organized. The

survey was undertaken by an NGO, Stichting Equalance, rooted in the area and with

the capability to speak the local language and to understand local customs.

When assessing the response, several conditions should be taken into account:

(1) The population in the area was not informed about the plan or proposal to build

a road. The only obvious link with road construction was the pavement of the road

between the capital city of Paramaribo and Pokigron/Atjoni, which was taking place

at the moment the questionnaire was undertaken. Consequently, expectations and

perceptions were not based on recent and nearby experiences with relevance to the

area under investigation.

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(2) In view of the low average level of income per capita or household, changes

enlarging the probability of an increase in consumption in the short term probably

have a high preference notwithstanding a possible negative welfare implication over

the longer term.

(3) Customs, principles and fear of change may play a role in the creation of

perceptions concerning the probable impact of a road to be built. Fear of change will

likely impact on the one group that obviously will experience directly the new

competition of an alternative transport mode, the boatmen and their families and

affiliates.

(4) By interviewing individuals at home, the potential influence of the preferences of

family members, local captains and their assistants, and others with some degree of

influence over the community on the interviewed person has in all likelihood been

reduced, but these types of influences on responses to interview questions cannot

be excluded entirely.

Table 1. Assessment of the probable impact of a road: economic aspects, in percentages (n=538).

+ + + 0 – – – No

response

Facilitates (economic) activity 27.5 25.3 25.1 5.4 3.9 12.8

Reduces costs of transportation 36.2 13.2 26.4 3.3 2.8 18.0

Increases income because of improved access to intermediate

inputs

12.1 26.6 34.6 3.5 3.5 19.7

Induces transport–related activity

28.3 40.1 18.2 3.7 2.8 6.9

Table 2. Assessment of the probable impact of a road: social, cultural, educa-‐tional and health-‐related aspects, in percentages (n = 538).

+ + + 0 – – – No

response

Increases visits to family members, relationships and

friends

35.9 26.0 33.5 1.3 0.6 2.8

Facilitates visits to health centres

24.3 28.1 43.5 0.9 0.9 2.2

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Increases visits to health centres 15.4 23.4 57.8 0.4 0.7 2.2

Facilitates visits to churches and

places of worship 4.3 16.4 72.7 1.1 0.9 4,6

Facilitates going to school, sports-‐ and leisure facilities

21.7 25.3 46.1 0.7 0.7 5.4

Facilitates visits to government

offices 27.3 37.5 31.6 1.3 0.4 1.9

Table 3. Assessment of the quality of existing transport modes (water, roads, air), in percentages (n=538).

+ + + 0 – – – No

response

13.9 52.4 17.8 11.2 2.2 0.0

Table 4. Assessment of the major probable impacts of a road: perceived emerging problems, frequency and percentages (n=538).

n (%)

Theft 258 48.0

Illegal or unwanted hunting 91 16.9

Land grabbing 69 12.8

Murder, accidents, drugs 47 8.7

No response 23 4.3

Total 488 90.7

Economic impacts

Table 1 presents the scoring on four economic impacts of a road in five categories:

strongly positive, positive, neutral, negative and strongly negative. In general terms,

a road is perceived to facilitate (economic) activity according to 52.8 per cent of the

sample population while 9.3 per cent expects the opposite. Note however that 37.9

per cent expect no impact or does not know what to expect regarding this probably

most crucial and general type of impact. Economic activity may be facilitated for a

number of reasons: transportation costs are reduced, access to intermediate inputs

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like natural resources, energy, equipment, is improved, and market access is

improved.

As shown, reduction of transportation costs is expected by 49.4 per cent while 32.5

per cent expects no reduction or even an increase, and 18.0 per cent has no opinion.

This is a remarkable result that may be related to relatively high costs of bus

transportation at other stretches used by the population in the area, and tends to

bypass the value of time saved by using the faster alternative mode of

transportation. Apparently, however, transportation by boat is considered costly, as

the type of improvement of boat transport most frequently mentioned is price

reduction.

The scoring on the perceived impact on income due to improved access to

intermediate inputs is somewhat unclear: 38.7 per cent expects a positive impact,

but 61.3 per cent expects no impact, a negative impact or does not know what to

expect. The generally high scoring on ‘no response’ is in part related to a relatively

large segment of the sample population who refuses to really participate in the

questionnaire out of protest against the road or the procedure leading to a decision

to construct a road. Apart from a fairly large segment that expects increased income

due to increased sales, there is also fear for new competition in the local market by

outsiders.

The perception among 68.4 per cent of the sample population is that the road will

induce transport-‐related activity. The scoring on more specific follow-‐up questions

shows that 65.8 per cent expects a stimulus to commercial activity generally in the

area, particularly (semi) commercial agriculture, possibly in combination with

hunting and fishing; 65.6 per cent expects new job opportunities directly linked to

road-‐induced tourism in the area and to transport, and 64.1 per cent expects to find

new types of jobs.

The potential impact of road construction on land use appears to be hard to perceive

and the scoring is ambiguous. Just over half (50.4 per cent) of the sample population

expects (significant) impact by means of reduced freedom to move in the forest

concessions offered to outsiders.

Social impacts

Table 2 presents an overview of the perceived impacts of a road on a range of social,

cultural, religious, educational and health-‐related issues. Nearly 62 per cent of the

sample population is of the opinion that social contacts including visits to family

members, relatives and friends will increase as a consequence of the construction of

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a road. At the same time, about one third of the sample does not expect to see a

change in their attitude or habits in this regard.

Over half of the sample population (52.4 per cent) expects that road construction

will facilitate visiting health-‐care centres while 43.5 per cent does not expect an

impact. At the same time, 38.8 per cent expects actually to increase the frequency of

visits to health-‐care centres once the road is constructed while 57.8 per cent does

not expect any impact. Apparently, other variables tend to impact on the frequency

of visits including age and gender, and the system of checks and controls applied by

the health centre, that all generate flows of visits rather independent of the

availability of alternative modes of transportation.

Regarding visits to religious centres including churches and places of worship 72.7

per cent does not expect a road to facilitate visits and a similar percentage expects

no impact on the frequency of visits. Most places of worship are situated within the

villages and visiting does not require transportation. Nevertheless, 20.8 per cent

expects a road to facilitate such visits, and to increase the number of visits.

Going to school may be facilitated by road construction according to 47 per cent of

the sample population and nearly the same number of respondents has indicated

that there is no such impact. Particularly in the rainy season schools may be difficult

to reach from some rather isolated villages. The impact of a road may be limited in

case parents refuse to pay fees for a school bus, if required. Elderly people in

particular expect a road to contribute to visiting festivities and facilities.

Finally, the investigation shows that 64.8 per cent expect that a road will facilitate

visiting government offices.

Table 3 shows the degree of satisfaction with the existing transport system, the core

of which is boat transport with additional facilities for air transport and local

transport over roads. Remarkably, 66.4 per cent considers the existing system (very)

good and another 17.8 per cent as normal or adequate. Consequently, only a small

minority is unsatisfied with the transport system as it functions. Nevertheless, this

outcome is hard to match with the observation that 27.5 per cent of the sample

population considered the existing transport system inadequate for social visits. In

addition it may be observed that many among the population in the area have

obvious priorities for improvement of the water transport system, such as higher

frequency and reliability, more safety and lower prices.

It is obvious that the government initiative to build a road in this area is independent

of the priorities of the local population. Clearly, the local population considers

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extension of the transportation system by road construction positive and road

transportation is considered the preferred mode of transport in nearly all villages in

the area. Note however that a road is not considered a substitute for water

transport but rather a complement to it.

The most frequently mentioned emerging problems in relation to the construction of

a road are presented in Table 4: theft, illegal or unwanted hunting, land grabbing,

and the combination of murder, accidents, and drugs abuse. Some differentiation

can be made among subgroups within the sample. The subgroup of women that are

involved in semi-‐commercial agriculture emphasizes, in addition to the issues

referred to above, the probable emergence of assault and rape and destruction and

damage of property. The group of elderly as well as the local authority emphasize

erosion of authority, social structure and traditional values. The group of youngsters

and entrepreneurs emphasizes destruction and damage of property, murder,

robbery of resources, and drugs abuse.

Interviews and group-‐wise discussions show that land grabbing clearly is considered

as a widely shared risk of opening the area. As land titles are not clearly identified

and recognized, many people in the area fear that government will distribute

concessions to outsiders. Note that this problem is not specific for the area under

investigation but is more generally considered a crucial problem in the interior.

Apart from these risks, reference is made to the possible penetration of Chinese

retail traders in the villages, and of Brazilian gold diggers, particularly in relation to a

road linkage with Brazil.

In general, the local population recognizes major advantages related to road

construction in the area, but has strong expectations concerning a range of emerging

problems. This ambiguity can be recognized when taking the full range of answers

and observations into consideration. In-‐depth analysis of the questionnaire in which

types of answers are linked to economic characteristics of those interviewed show

that fear of future loss of income for boats man and their family members influences

the type of answers, resulting in a type of ‘strategic answering’ or ‘non-‐answering’.

Survey into the impact area along the Tapanahoni River

Recently a similar list of question has been used for a survey among the indigenous

peoples -‐ Trio and Wayana tribes -‐ living in the villages of Tepu, Palumeu and Apetina

along the Tapanahoni River. These three villages are expected to experience the

impacts of the dam envisaged in the Tapanahoni river, as well as the impacts of the

road required to facilitate the construction of the dam. It should be noted that these

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populations have no experience at all with roads in the areas where they live nor

with dams. Consequently, it is to be expected that assessing probable impacts will be

a complicated exercise. At this stage results of the survey as presented in ACT 2012

need to be re-‐assessed before publication.

Preliminary hydrographic studies indicate at the following probable impacts of dams

in the Tapanahoni River.

(1) The inhabitants of these three villages are expected to experience different types

of effects of the hydro-‐energy works as envisaged in the Tapajai Project:

(2) As a consequence of the construction of the dams transportation over water -‐ by

now the only means of transportation between the villages -‐ will be obstructed and

severely hampered.

(3) The Alamandidon dam nearby Palumeu will in all likelihood cause inundation of

part of the village of Palumeu including the plots of land used for cultivation. The

precise location of the geographical area impacted by the construction of the dams,

however, has not yet been established.

(4) Upstream water levels will be raised significantly which may put the growth

potentials of the river nearby Tepu for new vintages of fish in danger.

(5) Downstream the average wáter level of the river will be reduced significantly, as

will be the case in Apetina; this will affect transport and fishery.

(6) Downstream, the degree of water pollution related to illegal, small-‐scale gold

mining based on the use of mercury may be raised due to reduced inflow of fresh

wáter.

(7) Downstream, the lower water level and related water pressure in the Marowijne

River may extend the inflow of salt seawater from the Caribbean Sea at high tide,

with a probable impact on the land adjacent to the river.

(8) Downstream, the risk of inundation with sudden increases of upstream water

supply will be increased with potential risks for the life’s and livelihoods of the

populations living nearby the river.

Reflections on the perception studies in the impact area

When assessing the information derived from interviews, discussions and survey-‐

studies, standard rules need be observed regarding representativeness and

significance of the sample size and structure, and the content and structure of the

listed questions. Moreover, in the particular context of a road infrastructure

programme the long-‐term dimension of the impact should be taken into account,

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including the specific effect that a road may have on the future composition of the

population of communities in the impact area. Clearly, particularly the preferences

of those actually living in the impact area are registered, not of those who intend to

migrate into the area once the road will be constructed, but this may differ among

assessments.

For several reasons such as lack of information, uncertainties and biases, the stated

preferences do not reflect in a pure and unbiased way the welfare of the interviewed

individuals, and consequently hamper the potential use value of the interviews with

members of the population for the shaping of a plan of action and decision making.

Preferences and opinions as expressed in interviews with representatives of the local

population are presumably shaped by individual interests of these representatives.

Below five main issues in this context are focused upon.

(1) Statements on preferences, opinions and expectations are often based on

incomplete and biased information. This holds particularly for locals with poor

education, little access to information and living in rather isolated circumstances.

This may affect the value of answers to questions pertaining to the expected effects

of a road that has not yet been constructed. Such expectations can hardly be based

on experience.

(2) In small communities, characterized by strong interdependence and family

linkages, and a hierarchical structure among community members, opinions as

expressed during public meetings are not necessarily pure expressions of individual

preferences but may be biased to make these stated preferences fit with the current

social structure and with preferences as stated by a majority of the community or by

the local powers that be.

(3) In conditions of poverty or low income, low levels of protection and high degrees

of uncertainty, the (implicit) discount rate individuals apply when stating preferences

and opinions generally reflect a high preference for consumption and income in the

short term, and a low preference for conservation and preservation of income

potentials in the longer term. This preference structure may endanger potentials to

generate income in the future in case the risk of environmental overexploitation is

not sufficiently counted for.

(4) Preferences as expressed in interviews may be ‘irrational’ in the sense that they

are affected or thwarted by customs and principles, and by excessive fear of pain or

change. In such cases, these stated preferences are not supportive of a person’s own

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interests and welfare (in the longer term). Particularly fear of change may affect

stated preferences regarding a road programme in a rather isolated area.

(5) Representatives of groups in society, like authorities, local politicians, and

members of NGOs, need not purely reflect the preferences of their constituency or

the members of their organizations or groups in society they claim to represent.

Private and specific interests of these representatives or the interests of the

institutions they represent may interfere and impact upon their opinions, stated

perceptions, and preferences.

By implication, simply adding up individuals’ opinions as stated in meetings and

krutus in communities and using these aggregates as inputs for decision-‐making and

the formulation of action plans neglects troubling aspects of such a public consult.

Processing of data based on significant population samples in large areas may

involve a substantial amount of time and money. Correctly, the types of biases and

flaws referred to above have been observed also by the PIATAM team in their

methodological observations on the SEA they made on the road Manaus-‐Porto Velho

as discussed by Wallis in another panel paper. Troubling aspects including systematic

lying for the sake of defending individual interests that are put at risk were detected

in case of the survey presented here. Questionnaires may result in high degrees of

similarity in answers to questions related to the preference for (re)construction of a

road. More insight could be obtained by linking opinions and preferences with socio-‐

economic characteristics or profiles of the individuals that express such preferences,

and applying factor analysis (principal component analysis) or ANOVA.

Final Reflections and Conclusions on SEAs

SEAs may contribute significantly to the process of development road infrastructure,

or hydro-‐energy infrastructure, particularly in case these works are located in areas

with valuable eco-‐systems or in territories where local communities are highly

dependent for their living on the eco-‐systems. However, many SEAs suffer from

shortcoming of different types that tend to limit their potential contributions to the

decision-‐making process before the start of the infrastructural works as well as

during the stage of construction and afterwards.

The review of literature and the case studies presented in Van Dijck (2013) support

the following observations:

(1) Most environmental baseline studies of SEAs are based on existing data, not on

information newly created as part of the assessment. Hence, data constructed with

different methodologies, at different scales and for different purposed are grouped

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together to analyse the existing condition and to facilitate assessment of potential

impacts. This may be a risky strategy particularly in case of vulnerable eco-‐systems,

environmental hotspots and highly dependent local communities. The atlas

constructed by DHV as part of the Corredor Norte assessment is a special case in

which vast quantities of data and a large number of maps are put together to

construct a comprehensive overview of the relevant environmental dimensions of

the wide potential impact area of this corridor in Bolivia (DHV 2006).

(2) Processing of data in GIS maps may facilitate impact analysis from different

angles and involving economic, social, environmental dimensions as well as

transport-‐related and security-‐related aspects. This approach may support as well

the design of an optimal trajectory of roads as seen from the different angles

distinguished above

(3) Decision-‐making on the optimal mode of transportation -‐ road, railway, waterway

-‐ and the optimal trajectory may be supported by including a valuation of eco-‐system

services provided in the potential impact area. Alternative modes and trajectories

with different impacts on eco-‐systems and their capability to supply environmental

services may be compared more adequately if the values and significance of the

relevant variables are expressed in units that enable comparison. Quantification of

non-‐marketed eco-‐system services that are made available as public goods is hard to

realize, although a large number of methods and practices has been developed and

applied to support attempts at valuing such services.

(4) The strategic plan of action – the ultimate outcome of the assessment study –

may be composed of a large number of priorities, requests and claims as formulated

by many different stakeholders: local communities, their representatives, as well as

representatives of interest groups and relevant economic sectors in the area. To turn

such a list of priorities into a genuine plan of action, priorities have to be translated

in a combination of instruments that are selected as first best, second best and next

best according to effectiveness and efficiency criteria.

(5) Initiatives as proposed in a plan of action may differ in terms of scale regarding

the impacts that they aim to address. This raises the issue of subsidiarity: finding the

optimal level of governance to intervene in view of the spatial dimension of the

impacts: According to the principle, impacts are addressed at the lowest possible

level: local impacts need to be addressed at the local level by local governance, and

regional impacts at the regional level. Pollution of land and of water is a case in

point.

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(6) Modelling may support the assessment of the probable extension of the impact

area of a road or hydro-‐energy plan in the course of time. Most modelling exercises

of impacts are based on data on land use, land quality, distances to markets,

infrastructure, degree of protection of areas and distance to deforestated areas or

areas. Only few impact models make use of data related to prices of inputs and

outputs of products that may be produced in the potential impact area. Prices of

wood, non-‐timber forest products, eco-‐services, cattle and agricultural products are

cases in point. This limits the significance of such models. At the same time it needs

to be realized that international or domestic prices are hard to forecast over the

longer term. An alternative approach could be to develop several scenarios with

assumptions regarding developments of prices, demand and supply.

(7) At the end of our study of the potentials of the participatory approach when

assessing impacts and the developing a plan of action, it should be observed that the

combined views of stakeholders in the potential impact area do not per se end up

with a plan for regional sustainable development. As observed earlier, short-‐term

considerations and priority for revenues in the short term may bias the proposals

and suggestion towards maximization of revenues rather than conservation of

natural capital and the sources of long-‐term revenues.

105

References

ACT, Study of the perception of Trio and Wayana communities on the North-‐South road infrastructure in Suriname, Paramaribo, (internal document) 2012.

Boksteen, L., Deelstudie impact vergroting beschikbare hoeveelheid water in het bestaande Brokopondo stuwmeer, Cedla Research project Strategische Analyse en Participatief Actieplan voor Zuid Oost Suriname, (internal document), 2009

DHV, Evaluación ambiental estratégica del Corredor Norte, La Paz-‐Guyaramerín-‐ Cobija, La Paz, 2006.

Dijck, P. van, ‘Op weg naar het eind van de kaart, De gevolgen van asphalt door de jungle’, OSO, Oktober 2011.

Dijck, P. van, The impact of the IIRSA road infrastructure programme on Amazonia, Earthscan from Routledge, 2013.

Ministry of Public Works, Republic of Suriname, IIRSA Suriname Country Paper on Selected National Routes of Suriname ,Paramaribo, 2003

Regering van de Republiek Suriname, Meerjaren Ontwikkelingsplan (MOP) 2006-‐2011; Strategie voor duurzame ontwikkeling, Paramaribo, 2006.

Royal Haskoning, EMC, Sunecon, and Witteveen-‐Bos, Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of transport infrastructure initiatives (among others IIRSA) in Suriname, internal report, 2007.

Stichting Equalance, Deelstudie meningen lokale bevolking over wegaanleg in het Boven Suriname gebied, Cedla Research project Strategische Analyse en Participatief Actieplan voor Zuid Oost Suriname, (internal document), 2010.

106

EXPERIENCES IN A POLICY CONTEXT: THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF

THE MANAUS-‐PORTO VELHO HUB

Marinella Wallis

Introduction.

The construction and pavement of highways in Amazonia have raised intensive

debates in the last three decades. While highways are important for regional

economic growth (Perz et al., 2007), they are at the same time among the main

factors that induce deforestation and environmental degradation (Kaimovitz and

Angelsen, 1998; Soares-‐Filho et al., 2006a). Nevertheless, there are not many

projects that are analysed in a comprehensive way concerning the economic, social

and environmental costs and benefits, direct and indirect, as well as regarding the

projects themselves as their alternatives. Or, as Rivas puts it: ‘Although the Amazon

region is the object of countless studies, many of them provide only highly localized

insights, leaving most of the region virtually unknown’ (Rivas in Chapter 10 of van

Dijck, 2013). This paper is a reflection on an ‘old-‐school’ SEA, that was executed for

obtaining a licence for the reconstruction of a stretch of 400 km of the BR-‐319. Due

to a complicated construction of commissioning this SEA – with consequences for

the terms of reference – and, according to the national environmental agency, the

Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA),

to a flaw of some methodological aspects within the SEA, the end result of the SEA

has not yet been approved while the report was already produced in 2009.

Background of BR-‐319 Highway.

In 2005, the Federal Government announced the restoration of the BR-‐319 Highway,

which connects Manaus, the capital of the State of Amazonas, with Porto Velho, the

capital of the State of Rondônia (see map 1 and map 2). This highway was originally

built in the 1970s during the military regime, with the main objective of occupying

the region and exploring natural resources in the northern part of the country. At the

time, the project was executed without any consideration of economic viability or

environmental consequences. For instance, even a thorough estimation of the traffic

weight to be expected wasn’t made (Fearnside and Graça, 2006). Moreover, it was

built too hastily during the rainy season.

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One of the rationales behind the construction of this road was the logistic need for

the goods produced by the Polo Industrial de Manaus (PIM) and the inputs for the

industries, as the only ways of transporting goods to the southeastern part of the

country (São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro) were by air or by water. However, it turned

out that the road was not very much in use nor kept in good order. Rumours have it

that local barge owners ruined the road on purpose because they feared a

substantial loss in their income if transportation of goods was no longer done by

waterways.

With the growth of the Polo Industrial, every now and then voices are to be heard in

favour of restoration of the road. Eventually with success, as an amount of nearly

700 million reais (335 million US dollars) was budgeted in the first tranche of PAC

(Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento), the national Programme of Enhancing

Growth, and the road was planned to be concluded in 2011. In spite of this rather

high sum of money, there was no economic study done that proved the economic

viability of the road (Fleck, 2009). However, nowadays the Brazilian law prescribes

an EIA-‐RIMA1 to be done to assess the environmental impact of the building of

infrastructural works.

The BR-‐319 is a road of almost 900 kilometres but the environmental impact

assessment (EIA), required by law by means of the environmental protection agency

IBAMA, covers just over 400 kilometres, from Manaus at km 250 until km 656. The

reason behind this spatial limitation is that only the specific stretch in the middle of

the trajectory of the road is regarded as new, as no traffic has passed for a long time

due to the bad condition of that stretch, while the other segments of the road are

paved, in good condition and in use. Map 1 shows the road and adjacent territory.

Regional pressures for the BR-‐319 connection.

Within the context of the developments of the continent-‐broad Initiative for

Regional Infrastructure Integration in South America (IIRSA), Manaus appears to be

central to plans of the Amazon Hub – connecting the Pacific Ocean with the Atlantic.

1 In the Brazilian context the process of a SEA is called an EIA-‐RIMA, with slightly different preconditions. A convenient point in case is that there is only one organization that has to evaluate an EIA-‐RIMA: IBAMA, which also put the terms of reference forward.

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Map 1. The BR-‐319 and adjacent territory between the rivers Purus and Madeira.

Source: adapted from UFAM, 2009b.

Map 2. Overview of northern IIRSA development hubs.

Source: adapted from www.IIRSA.org.

Moreover, the city is connected with developments of the Guyana Shield Hub and

indirectly with the Peru-‐Brazil-‐Bolivia Hub. The development of the latter increases

the pressure on the – contested – rehabilitation of the BR-‐319, connecting Manaus

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with Porto Velho. For a presentation in the context of IIRSA hubs see Map 2. On this

map it is easily to notice that the BR-‐319 (the dotted line) will be – especially with

future developments of IIRSA – a central possibility for integration.

The largest intra-‐regional trade flow in Amazonia is between Manaus and Porto

Velho, which is to a large extent a transito connection with São Paulo. Porto Velho,

for its part, is embedded in the IIRSA Peru-‐Brazil-‐Bolivia Hub, entailing a connection

to the Pacific Ocean. Moreover, substantial flows are being developed between

Manaus and the north – which area is covered by the IIRSA Guyana Shield Hub –

specifically to Boa Vista and further up north towards Caracas, or alternatively

towards Georgetown and the port of New Amsterdam in Guyana, providing access to

the Caribbean Sea and beyond (see Map 3). Within the context of PAC there are

even more plans to promote economic development in this northern region, due to

its more convenient location vis-‐à-‐vis the rest of the world (Folha de São Paulo,

16-‐10-‐11). Implication of this will be that part of the economic activities will be

redirected from the industrial region in the south-‐east around SãoPaulo to the north,

as the northern region of the country is more favourable located to export lanes to

the northern hemisphere. Also, the (future) existence of huge hydroelectric power

stations may attract more industrial activities to the north. These developments may

enhance the need for a road connection between Manaus and Porto Velho.

Map 3. Linking Manaus with the Caribbean.

Source: Freitas, 2009.

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BR-‐319 as an integration road.

In addition to these regional developments, there are plans by the Ministry of

Transports for a local network of roads in connection with the BR-‐319. This would

increase the warnings by Fearnside that roads in Amazonia, such as the BR-‐319

would open central and northern Amazonia to the actors and processes of the Arc

of Deforestation (Fearnside and Graça, 2006, 2009), see map 4.

A key part of the impact of the BR-‐319 will be the plan for a series of side roads

leading from the main highway to each of the municipal settlements along the

Madeira and Purus Rivers. Worse, one of the roads would cross the Purus River at

Map 4. The Arc of Deforestation.

Source: Barreto et al., 2006

Tapuã and continue to Coarí, Tefé and Juruá. This would increase the support of

small farmers in the settlements for the road, but open up the large area of forest in

the western part of the state of Amazonas as well.

In the plans of the DNIT it was formulated: ‘In the social area the works of the

reconstruction of the BR-‐319 in combination with the conservation of the stretches

that are in good shape, will be fundamental to form a hub of integration and end in

this way the isolation of important settlements in the State of Amazonas.’ (UFAM,

2009b).

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The EIA-‐RIMA of the BR-‐319

At the time that the EIA-‐RIMA was initiated, Alfredo Nascimento was Minister of

Transports, who became well known for his preferences in favour of rebuilding the

BR-‐319 highway. Later on, in March 2010, he would be running for the election of

governor of the State of Amazonas and one of his selling points was the need for the

restoration of the BR-‐319. It was the very National Department of Infrastructure and

Transports (DNIT) of the Ministry of Transports that commissioned the EIA-‐RIMA.

This was done to a research team that was mainly constituted of researchers at the

Federal University of Amazonas (UFAM) and the Amazon National Research Institute

(INPA), with IBAMA as the supervising body. There was quite a few money available

for this EIA-‐RIMA: 1.5 million US dollars and almost 80 researchers from a wide area

of disciplines were to be contracted (Rivas, Chapter 10 in van Dijck, 2013). The

ultimate result of this extensive EIA was planned to be published in 2009.

Terms of Reference of the EIA.

The terms of reference for the EIA as provisionally2 formulated by IBAMA require a

large number of issues to be addressed. To start with, an environmental diagnosis of

the impact area is required including a characterization of the physical, biological

and socio-‐economic dimensions of the region, based on primary and secondary data,

and covering changing conditions during the Amazonian rainy and dry seasons. Also,

other government plans for the Amazon region need be taken into account. In

addition, the study presents a historical perspective of the road in order to provide a

better understanding of its strategic importance for Brazil, and particularly for the

Amazon region. The requirements concerning environmental dimensions are

particularly detailed in view of the presence of conservation areas, indigenous lands

and other areas inhabited by traditional communities, and the historical, cultural and

archaeological patrimony. Participatory interviews with the local inhabitants of the

area were included for a better understanding of local circumstances and needs.

Nearly all families, small farmers and businesses have been interviewed in six

communities located along this stretch, involving 78 interviews and representing 45

per cent of the overall number of families and small economic units. The fieldwork

was undertaken between December 2007 and February 2008 during the rainy

2 Rivas (in Chapter 10 van Dijck 2013) argues that one of the problems of a proper execution of the EIA had been the absence of definitive Terms of Reference up until the end. One may speculate that opposing interests between the commisioner (the Ministry of Transports) and the supervisor (IBAMA) lay at the root of this.

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season at the time that road conditions were extremely poor. The EIA team decided

to take account of environmental and socio-‐economic issues along the entire stretch

of the road and organized five mandatory public hearings, three of which in Manaus,

one in Humaitá and another in Porto Velho (UFAM 2009b).

Up-‐to-‐date information on environmental aspects related to road constructions in

the Amazon region has been provided by the EIA team, and people have been

questioned about their expectations concerning the potential social and

environmental positive and negative impact of the road works. The researchers

claim that the data obtained by applying these methodologies are fundamental to

the study as in this way residents have been assembled around a common interest,

which contributes to the legitimacy and consistency of the obtained answers and

information.

Throughout the Amazon region, people live with different cultures and social

relations creating a complex framework that requires a joint effort for the mitigation

and compensation for potential impacts. The study proposes preventive,

compensatory and monitoring programmes. Currently, among the most important

ways to prevent the negative spillover of infrastructure is to carry out consistent

environmental management, which includes but is not restricted to the creation and

expansion of conservation units, as such units prevent the disorderly occupation of

territory, reduce the pressure on natural resources and restrict illegal activities (Rivas

Chapter 10 in van Dijck, 2013).

Critical comments on the EIA-‐RIMA

Two experts on the Amazon environment, Fearnside (2009) and Fleck (2009), made a

couple of critical remarks on the BR-‐319 EIA. In his article The EIA-‐RIMA of the BR-‐

319 Highway: Critical Decision on the Opening of the Heart of Amazonia to

Deforestation, Fearnside stresses that the EIA-‐RIMA on the BR-‐319 highway is at the

moment one of the most important decisions for the Brazilian government: whether

or not the central and northern parts of Amazonia will be opened for immigration

from the notorious ‘Arc of Deforestation’ – which nowadays is yet limited to the

south and south-‐east of Amazonia (see Map 4). If this part of the road will be

opened, it will highly facilitate the movement of the actors of the Arc of

Deforestation, inclusive the illegal owners of large areas of public territory, de so-‐

called grileiros, and the people of the big landless movement (Fearnside and Graça,

2006). For his argument, Fearnside emphasizes that the Manaus region until now has

been spared agrarian conflicts by people in search of land, as well by way of invading

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fazendas or of a cycle of deforestation when people invade parts of the forest to

create new arable land. This has been the case because of the difficulties to access

the area due to the absence of a road connection. He criticizes the stance of the EIA-‐

RIMA that rejects this argument of a likely increase of immigration, declaring that

‘The existence of a curbed migration is questionable, as the use of the waterway

since the era of colonization of Amazonia have been intense, being the principal

means of access to several cities in the region.’ (UFAM, 2009a, Vol. 1, p. 189).

Fearnside’s argument is that ‘Unfortunately, migration have been a returning

phenomenon when other areas were opened up by roads, as in the case of the BR-‐

364 in Rondônia’ (see Fearnside, 2006).

According to Fearnside, a remarkable point in the report is that the argument of the

necessity of the BR-‐319 for the logistic needs of the Polo Industrial of Manaus was

downplayed saying that the BR-‐319 has ‘low importance for the Polo Industrial de

Manaus’ (UFAM, 2009a, Vol. 1, p. 216). According to Fearnside ‘this is one of the

most extraordinary remarks of 23 years of history of the discussion about the road,

as it was always the main justification for the existence of the road’ (Fearnside, 2009,

p. 1). An explanation for this turn can be sought in the fact that the Polo Industrial

has sustainability as the rationale of its existence. On this sustainability ticket the

Polo Industrial gets its tax reductions and investments benefits from the federal

government. It’s plausible that the management of the Polo Industrial, SUFRAMA,

doesn’t want to risk these advantages by a project with high environmental costs.

Also, the matter of high transportation costs was, reportedly, a case in point.

Another point of critique by Fearnside is the quantity of traffic the authors expect to

use the road. These expectations are exceptionally optimistic: they expect 375.000

passengers travelling per bus from 2012 on, the date of the expected inauguration of

the road (UFAM, 2009a, Vol. 1, p. 193), which is around the number of inhabitants of

the whole city of Porto Velho in 2007 (Fearnside 2009, p. 2)

However, the main objection of Fearnside against the EIA-‐RIMA is the arbitrariness

with which arguments and prognostics are used and the selectivity with which the

impacts and benefits are compared. The impacts are limited to the ‘area of indirect

impact’ along the road, covering the area between the river Purús and the river

Madeira, while benefits are claimed for a much wider area, including the city of

Manaus and agricultural areas in Mato Grosso. The less beneficial factors that can

use the same means of transport are not mentioned, nor are the likely roads west of

the river Purús that will link the BR-‐319 with an intact forestal area. (Fearnside 2009,

p. 3)

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When a critical eye analyzes the report, one may get the impression at several

moments that there was a preconception of the necessity of building the road. One

example is the use of the opinions by local people. Mainly the opinions of the

transportation needs of the inhabitants along the road were used in arguments of

road building, while the opinions of the people of nature reserve units farther away

got much less attention. Or in the oblique words of one of the researchers: ‘Proper

understanding of government planning, interaction and synchronization among

environmental agencies is of importance. The assessment study has made us

experience the lack of synchronism and the conflicts among these agencies.’ (Rivas in

Chapter 10 of van Dijck, 2013).

The reconstruction of the BR-‐319 from an economic-‐environmental perspective.

Fleck (2009), in his economic-‐environmental study, had three objectives: to analyse

in advance the economic feasibility of the reconstruction of the BR-‐319, to evaluate

the economic costs of deforestation induced by the reconstruction of the roads and

add them up to the result of the former, and to evaluate the economic risks of the

project. He worked along two scenarios, a conventional one with a cost-‐benefit

analysis and an integrated scenario. The time span is a 25-‐year period of analysis.

In the first scenario, a conventional cost-‐benefit analysis demonstrates that the project

is not economically viable, causing around 316 millions reais of costs, or 33 cents of

benefit for each real of costs. This signifies that for the project, to attain economic

viability, the benefits would have to be multiplied three times (see for methodological

aspects Fleck 2009).

When including the environmental costs in an integrated scenario, recent modelling

indicate dat the project will generate a heavy deforestation in the area between the

rivers Purus and Madeira, unless exceptionally effective measures are implemented to

prevent deforestation. Estimated costs of the deforestation would reach 1.9 billion

reais, in present value, of which 1.4 billion reais would correspond with the emission

of the carbon stock in the forest. When these costs are added up to the result of the

cost-‐benefit analysis, an amount of 2.2 billion reais of costs is calculated, or at most

6.5 cents of benefit is created for every real spent.

Fleck (2009) comments on these results, that one has to be very cautious when

effective measures have to be implemented to mitigate environmental damage.

First, as these are rather costly, it is questionable whether there will be enough

money to install them. Second, Brazil has not a very fine track record in continuation

and implementation of environmental measures. And, as Rivas admits, the whole EIA

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was built on the precondition to carry out consistent environmental management as

one of the most important ways to prevent the negative spillover of infrastructure

(Rivas Chapter 10 in van Dijck 2013).

Concluding remarks

The EIA on the reconstruction of the BR-‐319 has shown that the rationale and the

terms of reference are very important, as many aspects in the research have to be

selected and projections have often to be made without enough hard evidence to be

based on. It seems that, as the DNIT-‐department of the Ministry of Transports

commissioned the EIA, the research team adopted too soon the idea that the road

was inevitable, that alternative transportation modes were no option, and that

environmental management would yield the solution for negative spillovers.

The results of the interviews with local stakeholders were used in a pronounced

manner to support the need for local road connections. In a political sense, this

argument worked out very well, due to the fact that the controversy of economic

development versus environment conservation in Brazil was very often seen as an

opposition between local inhabitants and international interference.

Also, in assessing an EIA, or a SEA, it is important to be critical of what not is to be

studied. Fleck shows that an economic-‐environmental exercise sheds a whole

different light on the conclusions.

It is interesting that in 2011 President Dilma Rousseff in her visit to Manaus declared

that the building of the road was to be cancelled. However, as map 2 with the

overview of the northern IIRSA development hubs shows, in the long run, with the

evolvement of these IIRSA hubs, it is very likely that the pressure to building the road

will remain. As may be seen in the article by Buitelaar e.a., on the map of the

updated PAC 2 Amazonia plans of 2012 the BR-‐319 is shown as a road to be

constructed (Buitelaar e.a. 2013, p. 16).

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References.

Barreto, P., C. Souza Jr., R. Nogueron, A. Anderson and R. Salomão. In collaboration with J. Wiles, Human Pressure on the Brazilian Amazon Forests, World Resource Institute, 2006.

Buitelaar, J. J. Gómez and R. Sánchez, Land use pressures, expanding transport infrastructure and planning for sustainable development in the Amazon Basin, ECLAC, 2013.

Dijck, P. van, The impact of the IIRSA road infrastructure programme on Amazonia, Routledge, 2013.

Fearnside, P.M. and P.M.L.A. Graça, O EIA/RIMA da Rodovia BR319: Decisão Crítica sobre a Abertura do Coração da Amazônia ao Desmatamento, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia-‐INPA, 2009.

Fearnside, P.M. & P.M.L.A. Graça. 2006. ‘BR-‐319: Brazil’s Manaus-‐Porto Velho Highway and the potential impact of linking the arc of deforestation to central Amazonia.’ Environmental Management 38(5): 705-‐716.

Fleck, L. C., Efficiência econômica, riscos e custos ambientais da reconstrução da rodovia BR319, Conservation Strategy Fund, Lagoa Santa, Minas Gerais, 2009.

Folha de São Paulo, ‘Amazônia vira motor de desenvolvimento’, São Paulo, 16-‐10-‐11: frontpage.

Freitas, A., ‘Amazônia: Conexão com o Atlântico Norte por Ferrovia’, Presentation at the FIAM IV Seminar, Manaus, in: J.A. da Costa Machado (ed.) Anais da IV Jornada de Seminários Internacionais sobre Desenvolvimento Amazônico, Volume 3. Superintendência da Zona Franca de Manaus (SUFRAMA), Manaus, 2009.

Kaimowitz D. and A. Angelsen (1998). Economic models of tropical deforestation: a review, Jakarta, Center for International Forestry Research.

Perz, S. et al. (2007). ‘ Socio-‐spatial processes of unofficial road-‐building in the Amazon: socioeconomic and biophysical explanations.’ Development and Change, 38: 529–551.

Soares-‐Filho, B.S., et al., ‘Policy Sensitive Simulations For Future Amazon Deforestation’, plus ‘Supplementary Information for the Model Description of Modelling Conservation in the Amazon basin’, Nature 440, 520–523, plus, 2006.

UFAM. 2009a. Estudo de Impacto Ambiental – EIA: Obras de reconstrução/ pavimentação da rodovia BR-‐319/AM, no segmento entre os km 250,0 e km 655,7. Universidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Manaus, Amazonas. 6 Vols. + Anexos.

UFAM. 2009b. Relatório de Impacto Ambiental – RIMA: Obras de reconstrução/ pavimentação da rodovia BR-‐319/AM, no segmento entre os km 250,0 e km 655,7. Universidade Federal do Amazonas (UFAM), Manaus, Amazonas. 38 pp.

117

IMPACT ASSESSMENT, STAKEHOLDERS´ PARTICIPATION AND GOVERNMENT

POLICIES

Bert van Barneveld

Introduction

This paper discusses the role of stakeholders´ opinion and participation in different impact

assessments of road construction and other infrastructure development projects in the

Amazon. It also discusses the way the results of impact assessments are inserted in

government policies and may help governments to design new policies.

CEDLA Cuadernos publish and distribute the results of social science and other research on

Latin America, and assembles and makes accessible scholarly materials for the study of the

region. This paper, however, is not a research paper based on literature. The paper presents

experiences of impact assessments, public consultations and stakeholders´ participation of

several recent major projects and plans in the Amazon and elsewhere in Latin America.

These include IIRSA road and corridor construction projects, a long-‐term flood control

programme in Amazon wetlands and oil and gas exploration projects in protected and

indigenous territories.

Special reference is made to the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of the Corredor

Norte, the Bolivian branch of the transport corridor between Southern Peru, Northern

Bolivia and South-‐western Brazil promoted by IIRSA. The road passes over several strikingly

different natural and socio-‐cultural regions, each rich in biodiversity, eco-‐systems and

inhabited by a variety of indigenous, immigrant and mixed groups of people. The corridor

has direct and indirect impacts on a very large area; the impact area covers the territories of

14 different indigenous people and five large protected areas and national parks, some with

the highest biodiversity indexes of all of the Amazon basin.

2.-‐ Approaches of participatory impact assessments

Public consultation and participation is a conceptual aspect of SEAs, besides being an

element of good government practice. In several Latin American countries, public

consultation in impact assessments is required by law. The objective of public consultation

and participation is to collect first hand information and opinions on possible direct and

indirect impacts, sensitive issues, risks and opportunities expected by the stakeholder

population. It also aims at obtaining information on the institutional capabilities and

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capacities in the impact area. The consultations permit stakeholders to view their opinion

and ideas on actions to be taken to mitigate expected negative impacts and to enhance

opportunities the proposed project or plan may offer.

The meaning of the term “public consultation” and how it is practised, differs considerably in

scope, approach and focus. Public consultations may be undertaken at various levels,

ranging from involving only local government agencies to consulting all stakeholders,

including the private sector (transport, industry and commerce), NGOs (environment, nature

conservation) and indigenous communities. Regularly, a stakeholder inventory is made first,

followed by consulting selected stakeholder representatives and/or more in-‐depth

consultations in representative pilot areas. Surveys and quick scans may be part of the

consultation process as is the collection and analysis of secondary information. In isolated

areas with a large part of the population being indigenous living traditional ancestral live

hoods, consultations in combination with socio-‐cultural and anthropologic research is

sometimes an appropriate approach, although this may take considerably amounts of time

and funding.

Public consultation in impact assessments of large projects, plans and policies generally

follows an approach or a combination of approaches, which may be summarized as follows:

a.-‐ Information. Representatives of stakeholder groups are informed on the proposed

project, plan or policy with a general description of the expected short-‐ and long-‐term

impacts. This is the most basic one-‐way form of consultation, although in most cases

stakeholders are invited to raise questions which are duly acknowledged. But the approach

may also be a window dressing exercise or intended to obtain approval from a critical

population needed to be persuaded.

b.-‐ Consultation. Local authorities, representatives of civil society and private economic

sectors are informed and consulted on the proposed project, plan or policy, followed by a

discussion on the expected short-‐ and long term impacts, both positive and negative.

Generally, the results of the consultations are considered in the final stage of project design

and in the elaboration of a mitigating action plan. The approach may have the character of a

rapid appraisal.

c.-‐ Perception. An approach based on collecting the perceptions of the local population on

the proposed project, plan or policy and the expected impacts. The approach is based on

surveys and research and is sometimes used in isolated areas with indigenous people living

traditional ancestral live-‐hoods. The perceptions are used as an input to develop a system of

dialogue and future consultation.

d.-‐ Comprehensive active participation. All regional and local authorities, stakeholder

groups representing civil society, the economic private sectors and relevant NGOs and

institutions are being informed and consulted; their perceptions and suggestions are

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acknowledged and considered and all stakeholders are actively involved in the development

and implementation of a strategic action plan to be part of the proposed plan or project. The

approach is sometimes named “society approach” or “consensus approach”.

The selection of a particular approach generally depends on the scope and the degree of the

expected impacts, the existence of present and/or expected conflictive situations,

government intentions and the available time and funds to carry out the consultation

process.

The information approach is applied in assessments of projects and plans which, in overall

terms, have been accepted already by society, which are beneficial and without apparent

major negative impacts. An example is the construction of the IIRSA transport corridor

between Sao Paulo in Brazil and Buenos Aires in Argentina. In the hitherto isolated provinces

of Entre Ríos and Corrientes of Argentina, the construction of the corridor was welcomed by

all concerned as it ended isolation without major negative impacts. In fact, it brought

sustained economic growth, urban and rural development and substantially changed the

economic structure of the area.

The information approach is also used in conflictive and/or politically motivated projects,

plans and policies which are controversial and highly contested. The objective of public

consultation in these projects often is to obtain approval from a population which in

majority is against the project. In the Amazon, classic examples are hotly debated road and

hydroelectric dam projects, mining and oil-‐ and gas exploration projects in protected areas

and indigenous territories. In these cases, consultation often has a window dressing

character, giving stakeholders a deceptively and often biased positive impression of the

project, playing down all negative impacts. Through promising development projects and

other incentives, stakeholders are persuaded to agree. Experience has learned that this

approach may lead to politically even more serious conflicts, very difficult to solve in a later

stage.

The Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) finances many major infrastructural projects in

Amazonia and the public consultations required by the corporation are of a limited

consultation or rapid (rural) appraisal type, involving short consultations with regional and

local government authorities and a small sample of other key stakeholder groups in the

direct impact area. For the corporation, the consultation should require only limited

amounts of time and funding as to not upheld implementation of the project. The approach

may be suited for impact assessments of non-‐conflictive projects or for projects already

approved by the authorities and stakeholder groups concerned. Sometimes, the approach is

followed by more in-‐depth consultations in later stages, as part of project implementation or

as a requisite of national environmental impact legislation.

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Public consultations of impact assessments financed by the World Bank (WB), the

Interamerican Development Bank (IDB) and the European Union (EU) are also of the rapid

appraisal type, but requiring fairly large and representative samples of stakeholders to be

consulted. Consultations with environmental NGOs and organizations of indigenous people

are considered essential. The agencies require that the considerations of stakeholders are

“properly recognised”.

The perception approach may be a suitable alternative in relatively isolated areas within the

Amazon with indigenous people living traditional live hoods being the principal stakeholders.

Interviews and participative workshops with these populations may not lead to reliable

information, requiring alternative forms of consultation including the use of visual means,

GIS tools and indirect approaches based on socio-‐cultural and anthropologic research. The

perception approach is being followed for example in impact assessments in Southern

Surinam.

The comprehensive approach is preferred when opinions on the proposed project, plan or

policy vary considerably among stakeholder groups which may lead to future conflicts. In

these cases an approach is required to create consensus and to develop a shared vision on

the proposed project, plan or policy. Through active participation, actions are identified

which mitigate expected negative impacts and other actions which enhance the

opportunities the project is likely to present for each stakeholder group. Stakeholder

organisations are encouraged to formulate and implement the identified actions according

to their own objectives, institutional capabilities and capacities. The comprehensive

approach has been followed in the SEA impact assessment of the IIRSA Corredor Norte

project.

The comprehensive approach of active participation of stakeholders probably in many

assessments appears to be the preferred option, but it can be very time consuming and

expensive. This is particular the case in assessments of large impact areas and in areas with a

broad variety of stakeholder groups with different and often conflictive views on the

proposed project, plan or policy.

The comprehensive assessment approach of the Corredor Norte project is a case in point:

the consultation resulted in a broad based consensus on the project with a shared long-‐term

vision, but it required the consultation and participation of 1.200 persons, representing 350

different stakeholder organisations and institutions. The exercise required about 18 months

to be completed and absorbed over 50% of the total budget available for the impact

assessment. In many cases the time and resources are just not available for this type of

approach and it is therefore that the “rapid appraisal approach” is the common approach

followed in many SEA impact assessments in the region.

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On the other hand, it should be avoided to plan and carry out impact assessments and public

consultations which lack sufficient coverage, are based on too few samples, or are too

superficial, resulting in almost meaningless exercises for proper decision making and

planning. It is unfortunate that in several instances, this type of assessments and public

consultations have been carried out as window dressing exercises, only to comply with the

conditions set by financing agencies to receive approval and finance for the proposed

project or plan. No surprise that because of these deficiencies, several large infrastructural

projects in the Amazon have been cancelled.

Stakeholder consultation and engagement planning

The planning of a public consultation programme generally starts with the preparation of a

stakeholder consultation and engagement plan. The stakeholders and their organisations

have to be identified and classified in terms of potential winners and losers and their roles as

decision-‐makers in regional and local government and development.

Sometimes this requires preliminary consultations with government agencies, institutions,

local and international non-‐government organizations to obtain a good picture of the

stakeholders in the impact area. For impact assessments in large areas it may be

recommended first to carry out a preliminary reconnaissance fact-‐finding tour in the area to

obtain factual information of the stakeholders present, to inform them on the consultation

process and find out their interest to participate. With this information, a stakeholder

consultation and engagement plan can be prepared being a guideline for the

implementation of the consultation process. A stakeholder engagement plan needs to

indicate aspects such as:

⎯ An inventory of the stakeholder groups to be consulted: this could be a representative sample but in some cases it may be necessary to consult all major stakeholders.

• The stakeholder groups which also will be engaged in the elaboration of a strategic action plan and their role in the elaboration and implementation of this plan.

⎯ A consultation plan with a schedule of consultations to be held, with whom, where and when. In addition to consultations with individual stakeholder groups, separate consultations may be required with specific groups of stakeholders: sector consultations with regional and local governments; environmental and nature conservation organisations; private sector consultations; special consultations with indigenous people in their own language. The plan may also include the installation of working groups.

⎯ The team in charge of the consultations. In addition to communication specialists it may be necessary to include specific sector specialists in the consultation team, such as engineers, environmentalists, agriculturalists, foresters, economists, transport planners and oil and gas exploration specialists. Also anthropologists and indigenous native speaking staff may be required.

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Public consultation and participation is not a single interview or consultation, but need to be

part of all phases of the impact assessment process. Ideally, the involvement of local

stakeholders follows a sequence of information > consultation > active participation, as

presented in the flowchart of fig. 1.

Figure 1. The participatory approach process flowchart in strategic environmental impact assessments SEA

Timing and horizons of participatory impact assessments

Strategic environmental impact assessments (SEAs) are intended as a planning instrument,

providing relevant information in early stages of project development and formal decision

making (MER, 2008). Therefore, the assessments need to be planned well ahead of the start

of the formal decision making process. Such is the case in Europe where long planning cycles

are the rule and where the SEA impact instrument has been developed and put in practice

initially.

The situation in Latin America is often different. In most countries of the continent, SEA

assessments for a specific project, plan or policy are undertaken when formal decision

making has already taken place. This because the horizon of project and policy planning is

short, generally not exceeding the term of a single government period. Once a decision on a

particular infrastructure project, plan or policy has been made, in many instances the impact

assessment has to be carried out in the shortest time possible as the start of the project

cannot be delayed by a lengthy assessment procedure, let alone if the assessment will result

in alternative projects, plans or policies.

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Consequently, many SEAs and other impact assessments in Latin America are ex-‐post

decision exercises rather than ex-‐ante exercises and many are not much different from

traditional project EIAs (Environmental Impact Assessments). Public consultations being part

of these assessments are still very useful though, as they may result in providing important

information on the need to adjust the decision process of the project or plan and as a useful

tool to accompany its implementation.

The Corredor Norte SEA is a particular case. The decision to upgrade the road was taken

several years before an strategic impact assessment was planned. At the time of the

assessment and the consultation, the upgrading of the corridor had already started, albeit

on a fairly small scale. Alternative routes and transport modes were not considered. The

government recognised that the construction and upgrading of the corridor, with long

stretches in difficult terrain and requiring numerous very long bridges, embankments, road

drainage systems and landslide control works, would take several decades. The impact

assessment has therefore be planned and carried out as a strategic instrument to

accompany the construction process of the corridor and not as an instrument to facilitate ex-‐

ante project planning and decision making. Also the public consultation parted from this

premise and focused on how stakeholders could benefit most from the project in terms of

sustainable socio-‐economic development.

The value and shelf-‐life of impact assessments and public consultations is generally limited

as are the resulting strategic action plans. This happens particularly in dynamic changing

environments. The ideas and wishes of the population may change in time as are the

national and regional priorities. Also the socio-‐cultural setting in the impact areas may

change and the announcement alone of the start of a large project may release a

spontaneous immigration process of many newcomers from elsewhere looking for

opportunities. With the technological advances, the potentials for economic development

may also change rapidly and even unexpectedly.

Changing externalities may also have an impact on the assessment and the consultation,

being the result of, for example, government or international decisions and trends. Even the

environmental conditions may change over relatively short periods as a result of climatic

change such as changes in the intensity of the El Niño/La Niña phenomena. Particularly the

southern and eastern parts of the Amazon are subject to the effects of climatic change,

leading to threatening impacts, some not well understood. A recent example is the impact

assessment of a flood control programme in the Amazon Beni wetlands in Bolivia. Started as

a flood control programme, during the last decade it became clear that excessive drought

problems during the dry periods due to changing El Nino patterns are becoming almost as

serious as are the problems of flooding and excess water.

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Experiences and recent trends are indicating that the shelf-‐life of the results of impact

assessments and public consultations generally does not exceed of only a few years. Impact

assessments and public consultations therefore need to be upgraded or repeated

periodically, particularly when long periods are needed to implement or complete the

proposed project, plan or policy. Periodical upgrading may be necessary to allow

involvement of other stakeholders, including new arrivals and to consider changing socio-‐

cultural and economic conditions and changing externalities. The experiences are also

pointing at the greater need to include in the assessments the analysis of trends, particularly

in areas with rapid changing conditions and dynamic processes of for example changing land

use patterns. GIS and modelling are appropriate tools in the evaluation of future trends and,

when possible, such tools should be considered in all key stages of the SEA assessment

process, depending on the availability of relevant spatial and ground data.

Public consultation and participation: a transparent and trust building process

Public consultation and the participation of local stakeholders in impact assessments require

a relation of trust and confidence between the staff in charge of the consultation and the

stakeholders to be consulted. Effective public participation need to be transparent and

requires the building of trust and the creation of confidence for a constructive and open

minded dialogue. This is particular the case in public participation in assessments of

controversial projects in which large part of the stakeholders have doubts or are against the

project or plan. Staff involved in these consultations should be strictly neutral and not be an

agent or have any relation with the responsible authority of the proposed project.

Experiences learned that to build trust in areas with indigenous people it is paramount that

the consultation team includes people who speak indigenous languages. The consultations

also learned that stakeholders often have difficulty in understanding what the impacts of a

particular project will be, their scope and geographical dimensions in particular. In these

cases, the use of audiovisuals proved to be of help.

Public participation is thus a process and not a single interview or discussion. The process

depends on the type of stakeholders. Some are potential winners and others potential losers

of the proposed project, and their interests and roles in the participative consultation may

vary considerably. Each group of stakeholders may therefore require a specific consultation

approach. In some cases working groups may be formed of representatives of stakeholders

of a particular sector, who jointly determine their position on the proposed project and

jointly propose actions to mitigate impacts and other actions to enhance opportunities.

Experiences learned that this works particularly well with environmental and nature

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conservation NGOs and with specific economic sectors, such as the transport and the

industry sectors.

In the SEA Corredor Norte assessment, stakeholder representatives were first invited to an

introductory round of regional meetings to inform them on the proposed project, the SEA

process and their participation in the preparation of a strategic mitigation plan. Participants

were invited to air their opinion on the project, their positive and negative expectations and

the policies and interventions they believed to be necessary. After an analysis of the

opinions received, a diagnosis of the biophysical conditions, the socio-‐economic and socio-‐

cultural situation and an analysis of possible scenarios and the required strategic actions, the

same stakeholder representatives were invited to a second round of consultations. Many of

the second round consultations were sector meetings with focus on the opinions received,

on the results of the diagnosis, the scenarios and the required strategies and actions for

each scenario. Special attention was paid to ways to reach consensus on the project. At a

third round of consultations a draft strategic action plan was discussed, based on the

suggestions received in earlier rounds. Finally, in a final plenary meeting at corridor level, the

draft action plan was further discussed, amended and approved by all concerned.

Stakeholders´ opinions and the preparation of strategic action plans

Active stakeholder participation in the SEA process is a key input in the formulation of

strategic action plans. These plans, in addition to refer to specific actions, are to reflect the

opinions, concerns and priorities of the stakeholders in the impact area. The opinions on

impacts and mitigation may differ strongly among stakeholders and interventions may be

assessed positively or negatively according to the specific interests of stakeholder groups

and also at various levels of government and the general public opinion.

The opinion of stakeholders often is biased by the lack of information about the planned

infrastructure project, the lack of knowledge about the potential impacts and/or the lack of

general knowledge and experience. Their opinion may also be influenced by the interests of

their elders and leaders. Also, the scope, intensity and spread of the expected impacts may

not be known ex-‐ante, not even to the decision makers and those responsible for planning

and implementation of the project. The devastating effects of the construction of the BR 163

trunk-‐road in Rondonia in Western Brazil during the 1980s is a case in point.

In most of Amazonia, the primary concern of many social organizations and indigenous

movements in relation to large infrastructural projects such as roads, mega hydroelectric

dams, large mining and agro-‐industrial complexes are the violation of territorial rights. Also

“green capitalism” proposals with the privatization and mercantilization of the natural

resources is a source of great concern as this often goes against traditional Amazonian

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cultures and live hoods. About half of the issues mentioned by stakeholders in SEA

consultations in Amazonia concern territorial issues. Even in Bolivia, where over the last two

decades a large number of indigenous territories have been established in the Amazon,

stakeholder concerns are related to conflicts over land use, land tenure and judicial security,

as well as to legislation which is not or insufficiently based on the socio-‐cultural and socio-‐

economic realities in the region. Illegal invasion and colonization and the loss of traditional

socio-‐cultural values are also mentioned frequently.

A second important group of issues brought up by stakeholders refers to environmental

degradation, being the result of the construction of road infrastructure, mining and dam

construction. This includes illegal deforestation, loss of valuable land and resources due to

mega hydroelectric dam construction, poisoning of water resources caused by mining

projects and oil and gas exploration, the excessive use of agro-‐chemicals and the spread of

forest fires. Stakeholders also mention fears of the spread of diseases, environmental

impacts due to the uncontrolled colonization by people from elsewhere not familiar with the

environmental conditions; invasion in natural parks and protected areas and the loss of

biodiversity.

Economic and productive development aspects are issues generally brought up by the private

sector. The comparative and competitive advantages of a region may improve with an

upgraded transport road system and a new road may offer possibilities to produce products

which can be marketed elsewhere along the new road. But also the reverse may occur: for

example the construction of a 600 km trunk road between Santa Cruz and Trinidad in the

Bolivian Amazon was intended to assist the industry in small Trinidad to market their

products in the large market of Santa Cruz, but instead Santa Cruz products flooded the

Trinidad market, almost destroying the Trinidad industry.

The participation process generally results in a large number of proposed actions to mitigate

the expected negative impacts of a proposed project and to enhance the benefits and

development potentials the project will offer. The larger the impact area, the bigger the

impacts and the affected stakeholder population, the more actions will be proposed. In case

of the Corredor Norte consultation, over 120 actions were proposed initially, having the

character of a shopping list. The list included also actions which only remotely were related

to the road project. Similar experiences have been observed in other participatory impact

assessments; the consultations along the 600km IIRSA road from Santa Cruz to the Brazilian

border resulted in over 500 proposed actions and projects and stakeholders insisted in the

implementation of all these actions.

The institutional capability in Amazonia generally being weak and the capacity being limited,

make it difficult or even impossible to implement all proposed actions simultaneously and

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the shopping list of actions may need to be reduced into a small, viable and consistent

strategic action plan. This requires an analysis and multi-‐criteria evaluation of all actions

proposed with weights attached to the assessment criteria. Many actions may be put

together or integrated to enhance consistency and potential impact. Other actions may

require investments which are not justified under the present economic conditions or are

not consistent with present government policies or development priorities. The ranking of

the remaining actions in terms of impact, scope and urgency will assist in the preparation of

a viable draft action plan. The draft needs to be discussed with stakeholders at a final next

round of consultations and sector meetings, before it can be presented as a true

participative action plan.

The characteristics of participative strategic action plans

A SEA strategic action plan is a conceptual flexible framework of actions related to the

mitigation of the negative impacts, both existing and expected and actions which will

enhance the opportunities the proposed project, plan or policy will offer.

As discussed in the previous paragraph, strategic action plans of large scale road

construction projects in Amazonia generally include actions to protect territorial rights, land

tenure and judicial security; land use and territorial planning; enforcement and/or

adaptation of environmental legislation and stricter control of environmental damages. The

action plans equally include actions to enhance the opportunities the proposed road

infrastructure project will offer. Such actions often refer to sustainable agricultural and

forestry development, (eco)tourism, basic and environmental services. Institutional

strengthening will have a prominent place in almost every action plan.

Experiences learned that a participative strategic action plan of a SEA impact assessment of

large road and other infrastructural projects in the Amazon region need to be based on the

following key characterisitics:

⎯ A long-‐term vision, generally referring to the sustainable development of the impact area

of the proposed project and based on: (i) socio-‐cultural identities of the stakeholders; (ii)

the sustainable use and management of the area’s natural resources, potentials and

comparative and competitive advantages and (iii) the presence of competent and efficient

institutions.

⎯ A plan with short-‐term strategic actions which mitigate expected negative impacts and

enhance the opportunities of the proposed project. Actions which need longer periods to

be implemented can better be designed and organised in phases. As much as possible, the

actions should be grouped so that their combined effect is greater than the sum their

individual effects (synergies).

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⎯ The resulting plan need to be a viable and coherent action plan, to be implemented over a

relative short period of time. After this period, the results need to be evaluated and the

plan needs to be up-‐dated, adapted or a new action plan be drafted for a next project

cycle. This to reflect changes which may have occurred.

⎯ The plan should be a consistent multi-‐sector strategy of integrated programmes and

actions for investments and regulation, which fit into government policies and

development objectives. All actions will need to be consistent with existing development

plans and be part of the country’s development objectives.

⎯ The plan should be additional and supplementary to existing plans and projects. Some

actions of the plan will refer to activities and projects that are already implemented in the

region or are in process of implementation, but which need to be strengthened, extended

in time or expanded in scope or territorial coverage.

⎯ The plan should be realistic and to be implemented at the lowest possible level of

ownership with existing institutions, preferably from within the region. The strategic

actions will require inter-‐institutional coordination and cooperation at the highest level of

regional or national government. Particularly in Amazonia, institutional strengthening

generally is an important aspect of the plan.

⎯ The plan need to be a flexible conceptual framework of actions, permitting stakeholders to

design and implement the actions according to their vision, objectives and institutional

capabilities and capacities. The plan should be capable to respond to external changes,

permitting to identify, formulate and implement new strategic actions which may arise.

Strategic action plans and Governement Policies

All proposed actions of a strategic action plan need to be screened and checked to make

sure that the actions are compatible and consistent with government policies and

development plans of existing national, regional and local governments, non-‐governmental

organisations and the private sector.

A general difficulty is that institutions in the Amazon region are often weak and in some

remote parts of the region government may even be absent. At central government levels,

nearly always located outside Amazonia and manned by people mosly from outside the

region, the lack of knowledge on Amazonia, its resources, potentials and limitations is

noticable, although the situation is gradually improving. Many government policies are

designed on very different situations outside the region and are not applicable or only in

part in the Amazon. In some respect, the Amazon region is considered by many to be “the

last frontier” of development; an eldorado with an enormous richness in resources, ready to

be exploited (Amazonia Without Myths, 2001).

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No surprise therefore that many government policies on the Amazon are incipient and in

many instances they do not reflect the realities of the region. In some sectors, government

policies are lacking and in urgent need to be developed.

Another limitation is the vastness of the region, which makes implementation of

government policies and regulations extremely difficult. For example, most Amazon

countries have policies and legislation to control illegal logging and land grabbing for cattle

grazing by people from outside the region, but enforcement of these policies is a formidable

task. In Bolivia, over 2 million ha of tropical rain forest has been certified in recent years,

making the country leading in tropical forest certification. Wood and timber from the

certified forest concessions is FSC certified. But still considerable volumes of timber continue

to disappear unnoticed from the Amazon forests, as effective control is very difficult.

Conclusions and lessons learned

By way of conclusion, the most important conclusions and lessons learned of SEA impact

assessments and public consultations discussed in this paper are:

⎯ In Latin America, many SEA impact assessments are carried out when the decision on a

particular project, plan or policy already has been taken. In these cases, strategic impact

the assessment and stakeholder´ opinions are valuable guiding tools for implementation

and further development of these projects, plans and policies.

⎯ Public consultation and participation is a continuous process and part of all phases of an

impact assessment. The involvement of local stakeholders ideally follows a sequence of

information > consultation > active participation.

⎯ A comprehensive participatory approach in SEA assessments is a suitable vehicle to create

consensus on complex and conflictive projects, to create a shared vision with common

goals and a participatory strategic action plan.

⎯ As conditions may change rapidly, impact assessments and public consultations need to

be updated regularly. The results of strategic action plans need to be evaluated and

adjusted about every five to seven years and with every new government cycle.

⎯ A participative SEA action plan should be based on a shared long-‐term vision with short-‐

term actions. The actions need to be consistent with existing development plans and

projects and fit into the country’s development objectives and policies.

⎯ SEA action plans need to be realistic with strategic actions which can be properly

implemented and managed by the stakeholders and their organizations. The action plans

also need to be flexible, permitting stakeholders to design and implement the actions

according to their vision, objectives and institutional capabilities and capacities.

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⎯ The strategic actions should be implemented at the lowest level of ownership, with inter-‐

institutional coordination and cooperation at the highest level of regional or national

government.

⎯ In Amazonia, institutional strengthening and development nearly always need to be a key

aspect of SEA strategic action plans. Participatory impact assessments and strategic

action plans may provide vital contributions to strengthen institutions at all levels.

⎯ Participative SEAs may significantly change the implementation of high risk infrastructural

development projects in Amazonia, leading to sustainable development outcomes with

environmental and socio-‐economic agendas.

⎯ A SEA strategic action plan is neither a strict mitigation plan nor a regional development

plan. Strategic action plans based on proper public consultation and stakeholder

participation are strategic policy plans and important critical instruments to improve and

optimize government policies on infrastructure development in Amazonia and to

implement realistic sustainable development goals.

References

Comisión Europea, Manual de Evaluación Estratégica de los Planes de Infraestructura de Transporte. 1999.

Commissie MER, Strategic Environmental Impact Assessments: State of the Art. 2008.

Commission on Development and Environment for Amazonia, Amazonia Without Myths. Prepared for the Amazon Cooperation Treaty, the Interamerican Development Bank and UNDP, 1992.

Dalal – Clayton, B. and B. Sadler, Strategic Envrironmental Assessments. A Sourcebook and Reference Guide. IIED, London, UK. 2004

DHV Sudamérica, Evaluación Ambiental Estratégica del Corredor Norte, Bolivia. Documento de Difusión. 2007

Interamerican Development Bank, Strategic Environmental Assessments within IIRSA. 2007

Worldbank, The, Strategic Environmental Asssessment Toolkit. 2008.

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