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13.03.2008

Climate Change and its Impact on

BusinessIntelligence for Business b.v.

Naim Kenan Hacievliyagil

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BogaziciUniversitesi

Agenda Introduction

Status Quo

Impact on Business Policy Resources Business Policy Economics Business Policy Behavior Business

Wrap up

How de we help clients Basis of our approach How to help managerial decisions SVS Approach

Discussion

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Introduction

World has a threat Business has a challenge

We propose a perspective

Discussion: Economical system and threat

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Introduction

Company Introduction

Intelligence for Business b.v.

(The Netherlands, Veenendaal)

Program Management

Project Management Clear Emphasis on SCM and Logistics

Sustainability Services

Customers: Shell

BASF

DSM

Rockwell Automation

Friesland Foods

ASML

Corporate Express

Philips

TU Delft

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STATUS QUO

ANNUAL CO2 EMISSION

SEA(NATURAL)

LAND(NATURAL)

MANKIND

SOURCED

NL EU

90 BTON

100 BTON

26 BTON

220MTON

5 BTON

90 B

100 B

26 B

Approximately 15% in excess ofNatures regular annual CO2 intake

capability

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STATUS QUO

EnergyIndustries

31%

Transport

19%

IndustrialProcesses

8%

Agriculture9%

Waste3%

Other(energy)

16%

Other (non-energy)

14%

CO2 Emissions (2004)

Begin 1900 280 PPM CO2 O C increase

2006 380 PPM CO2

? 550 PPM CO2 2 C increase

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STATUS QUO

PoliticalStructure &

POLICY

BEHAVIOR

ECONOMICS

RESOURCES

PARADIGM CHANGE

?

THE COMPANY

a particularcommunity of peopleliving in a country orregion, and havingshared customs, laws,and organizations

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Agenda Introduction

Status Quo Impact on Business

Policy Resources Business Policy Economics Business Policy Behavior Business

Wrap up

How de we help clients Basis of our approach How to help managerial decisions SVS Approach

Discussion

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IMPACT on BUSINESS

POLICY

BEHAVIORECONOMICSRESOURCES

THE COMPANYINPUT OUTPUT

COST VALUE

PROFIT=REVENUE-COST

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IMPACT on BUSINESS

POLICY


THE COMPANY

Less dependency tooil exporters(Russia, Middle East etc.)

Depleting resources Internalizationof Externalities

Consumer BehaviorB2B RelationsInvestor Behavior

Subsidizing Green

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IMPACT on BUSINESS

POLICY

RESOURCES

THE COMPANY

Less dependency tooil exporters(Russia, Middle East etc.)

Depleting resourcesIncreasing demand

Even leaving aside climatechange, we will be livinga carbon constrained worldbecause:

Policies

national security

reducing relianceon imported oil

Rising oil prices withrising demand from

emerging economiesWater as a raw material

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IMPACT on BUSINESS

POLICY

ECONOMICS

THE COMPANY

Kyoto Protocol

EU Climate Policy / EUEnergy Policy

Target5.5% below 1990 by 2012(Kyoto target -8%), and

6.7% below 1990 by 2020

Approach: Internalization ofExternalities

European EmissionTrading Scheme

Taxes, charges etc.(Road charging)

ETS

Main Pillar of EU ClimatePolicy

Cap and Trade System

Innovation

Member State NationalAllocation Plans

Industry level companylevel allocation

Phase II started

More countries

More industries

CDI and JI in thescope

U.N. Framework Conventionon Climate Change

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IMPACT on BUSINESS

POLICY

BEHAVIOR

THE COMPANY

Consumer BehaviorB2B RelationsInvestor Behavior

Subsidizing Green

climatecounts.comExxposeExxon.comWalmartWatch.com

Subsidizing Green i.e. Tax Reduction forHybrid Cars

Internet EquippedNGOs, savvyconsumers andactivists

on lookout of companytransgression

communicate findings

CO2 emission is acriteria at theprocurement decisions

Investors go to green The Carbon Disclosure

Project

Green Capital

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IMPACT on BUSINESS

POLICY


THE COMPANYINPUT OUTPUT

COSTVALUE

WRAP UP

Being sustainable is a source of competitive advantagenow More Value

Less Cost

There is no tension between sustainability and efficiencyanymore

Carbon related charges/taxes and oil prices can change thebusiness structures deeply

Hot topic : Corporate Social Responsibility Sustainability

Social Awareness

Responsible Investing

Labor Rights

Animal Rights

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Agenda Introduction



Wrap up How de we help clients

Basis of our approach How to help managerial decisions SVS Approach

Discussion

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BogaziciUniversites

HOW DO WE HELP CLIENTS?

Basis of our Approach: SVS

CO2 footprint is essential

Examining the impact ofmacro-economical

changes on micro-economical elements

Help to develop strategy

Help to deploy it through

Programs Projects

Develop KPIs for reduction

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BogaziciUniversites

HOW DO WE HELP CLIENTS?Basis of our Approach

CO2 footprint modeldeveloped

Help to examine CO2

emission over a ValueSystem Identify associated

cost burdens andchanges on coststructure

Support Managerialdecisions

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HOW DO WE HELP CLIENTS?Approach

How we can support managerial decisions (1)

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HOW DO WE HELP CLIENTS?Approach

How we can support managerial decisions (2)

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SVS APPROACH

What is SVS (Sustainable Value System) Approach? System perspective Do not optimize every part in a value chain

Optimize complete system Cost minimization and Value Maximization

The first step of SVS approach Quantify environmental impact of the value system Position you on the system Predict shifts on the value system Prepare for next steps

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BogaziciUniversite

VALUE SYSTEM


FIRST STEPS at SVS

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How to quantify this impact?VALUE SYSTEM

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How to quantify this impact?

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How to quantify this impact?

+CO2

RELATEDC

OSTS

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Agenda Introduction



Wrap up How de we help clients

Basis of our approach How to help managerial decisions SVS Approach

Discussion

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Discussion Can the followings save the world?

SVS, Internalization of Externalities, Cap and TradeSystems, Energy Revolution, Carbon Taxes, Technology

The Great Global Warming Swindle "the biggest scam of modern times

Globalization and Global Warming

Is there a link?(Consumption Culture, Consumer Capitalism)

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Further Reading

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Thanks for Listening

Any more question?

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