Bell an Der

8/3/2019 Bell an Der

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Huancayo 5-6 de marzo, 2007

Proyecto de cooperacin CONAM SMHI:

- presentacin de resultados

1. Cmo contaminado es Huancayo?- informacin de monitoreo- las fuentes emisoras y su impacto

2. Qu implicaciones tiene esto?- para la salud de la poblacin- en trminos econmicos

3. Consecuencias para el Plan de Accin?

- informacin nueva- recomendaciones de actividades y acciones

LarsCecilia H

TomOsvaldo

CarlosMilagroGianni/Lars?


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Lima 7 de marzo, 2007

Proyecto de cooperacin

CONAM SMHI:- presentacin de resultados

1. Niveles de contaminacin en Huancayo, Chimbote yLima centro

- informacin de monitoreo- las fuentes emisoras y su impacto

2. Estudios relacionando la calidad del aire y la salud- experiences from the Swedish counterpart- el caso Chimbote

3. Antecedentes para la definicin del Plan de Accinpara Chimbote

- la situacin actual y posibilidades de mejoras- el anlisis de costos y las recomendaciones

4. Objetivos para la segunda fase de la cooperacin (2007-2009)

Lars

TomLaura

GianniOsvaldo

Milagro


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Chimbote 8 de marzo, 2007

Proyecto de cooperacin

CONAM SMHI:- presentacin de resultados

1. Cmo contaminado es Chimbote?- informacin de monitoreo- las fuentes emisoras y su impacto

2. Efectos a la salud de la poblacin- Health Impact Assessment- estudio epidemiolgico de Chimbote

3. Antecedentes para la definicin delPlan de Accin para Chimbote

- la situacin actual y posibilidades de mejoras- el anlisis de costos y las recomendaciones

4. Objetivos para la segunda fase de la cooperacin (2007-2009)

LarsDavid A

Tom

Laura

PedroGianniOsvaldo

Milagro


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Health effects from air pollution:

PM

PM, main source traffic and long-rangetransport

Short-term effects with no known

threshold (studied at long-term average 13ug/m3 PM2.5 and up; WHO AQG)

Critical effects: increased mortality,increased respiratory and cardiovascular

morbidity

Estimate: 0.5% increase in short-termmortality per 10 ug/m3 PM10


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PM, cont.

Long-term effects above 10 ug/m3 PM2.5 (WHOAQG)

Critical effect: increased mortality

Estimate: 6% increase in long-term mortality per 10ug/m3 in the range 7.5-80 ug/m3 (Pope/WHO)

PM, main source wind-blown dust (coarseparticles)

Short-term effects: mortality ?, respiratorymorbidity, cardiovascular morbidity?

Long-term effects unknown


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Ozone

Short-term effects with variable individualthreshold, modified by excercise, from about 100ug/m3 and up (WHO AQG): airway inflammation,decrease in lung function

Estimated baseline 70 ug/m3

Critical effect,: increased respiratory morbidity,increased mortality

Estimate 0.3-0.5% increase in daily mortality per 10

ug/m3

Long-term effects unknown (and difficult to study)


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Nitrogen oxides, cont.

Long-term effects: Respiratory effects above 40ug/m3 NO2 (WHO AQG).

New studies show mortality effects above about 30

ug/m3 (when a marker for air pollution from traffic)

and reduced lung function growth in children.


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Sulphur dioxide (SO2)

SO2 toxic to the airways. For urban an industrial sources may also be a

marker of complex mixtures of pollutants, including PM and metals.

Short-term effects (WHO AQG): Critical effect,: increased respiratory

morbidity above 500 ug/m3 SO2 (in exercising asthmatics after 10

minutes).

Long-term effects: Decreased childhood respiratory disease and all

age mortality at decreased levels in Hong Kong (causal?).

No consensus on quantification of effects.


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Health effects from air pollution

Sulphur dioxide, cont.

WHO AQG:

500 ug/m3 for 10 minutes

Long-term effects: not known


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Hydrogen sulphide

Hydrogen sulphide (H2S)

En las Guidelines de la OMS, se recomiendaun lmite de 7 g/m3 (promedio 30 minutos)para evitar molestias de olor. Para efectos

sobre la salud, la OMS recomienda un lmitede 150 g/m3 para niveles promedio diario.


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Comparability of exposure and effects in

Peru

Air pollution has a (mostly) marginal effect on

health: a perfectly healthy person is very

unlikely to die or develop serious disease due to

air pollution.

Most studies of health effects from air pollution

are from North America and Europe.


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Comparability of exposure and effects in

Peru, cont.

Comparability:

Mixture of pollutants. Relevant for emissions from burningfossil and biological fuels in engines and for heating, and forcoarse particles from road dust and of crustal origin.

Population exposure. Ratio population/fixed site exposurelevel may be higher in Peru due to more open housing

structure (not studied).Biological effect. Relative risk may be higher in Peru due tolack of protective factors like optimal nutrition (not studied).In addition, absolute risk elevation may be higher in Peru dueto poorer general health status (not studied).

Outcome measure. More severe outcomes are likely morecomparable than less severe. Death is probably the mostcomparable. The observation and reporting of more indirectindicators of morbidity may be very different in differentcountries.

Range. Risk relations should not be applied outside thestudied range.


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Calculating extent of health effects

Input data:

Population in age classes (local)

Mortality in age classes (local)

Air pollution level (local)Exposure-risk relation (international)

Analysis:

Life table (e.g. AirQ by WHO)


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Health effects by air pollution in

Huancayo: Population data

2005 Census

Population Huancayo, 5-year intervals

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

0-4

20-24

40-44

60-64

80-84

Age

Population

HUANCAYO

Population El Tambo, 5-year intervals

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

0-4

20-24

40-44

60-64

80-84

A

ge

Population

EL TAMBO

Population Chilca, 5-year intervals

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

0-4

20-24

40-44

60-64

80-84

Age

Population

CHILCA


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Huancayo: Mortality

Correspond to life expectancy at birth:

72.6, 77.0 and 82.6 in Huancayo, El Tambo andChilca


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Huancayo

Exposure level:

35, 27 and 27 ug/m3 PM2.5 in Huancayo, El Tambo

and Chilca

Exposure-risk relation:

A decrease with 10 ug/m3 PM2.5 gives a decreased

overall mortality in ages 30 years and up of 6%.

This relation is valid in the range 7.5 to 80 ug/m3.


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Huancayo

Estimated possible gain in life expectancy atbirth:

2.0, 1.5 and 1.2 years in Huancayo, El Tambo andChilca


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Huancayo

Comments:

Mortality data is obviously faulty

Population overreported?

Deaths underreported?

But: Estimate of possible gain in life expectancy

not very sensitive to faults in mortality.


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Chimbote: Population data

2005 CensusPopulation Chimbote, 5-year intervals

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

0-4

20-24

40-44

60-64

80-84

Age

Population

CHIMBOTE

Population Coishco, 5-year intervals

0 500 1000 1500 2000

0-4

20-24

40-44

60-64

80-84

Age

Population

COISHCO

Population Nuev o Chimbote, 5-year intervals

0 5000 10000 15000

0-4

20-24

40-44

60-64

80-84

Age

Population

NUEVO

CHIMBOTE

2005 Census


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Chimbote: Mortality

Correspond to life expectancy at birth:

62.4, 75.7 and 69.1 in Chimbote, Coishco andNuevo Chimbote


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Chimbote

Exposure level:

35, 35 and 22 ug/m3 PM2.5 in Chimbote, Coishco

and Nuevo Chimbote

Exposure-risk relation:

A decrease with 10 ug/m3 PM2.5 gives a decreased

overall mortality in ages 30 years and up of 6%.

This relation is valid in the range 7.5 to 80 ug/m3.


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Chimbote

Estimated possible gain in life expectancy atbirth:

1.8, 2.0 and 1.2 years in Chimbote, Coishco andNuevo Chimbote


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Chimbote

Comments:

Mortality data is probably faulty

Population wrong reported?

Deaths wrong reported?

But: Estimate of possible gain in life expectancy

not very sensitive to faults in mortality.

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