Politieke monitoring sociale media Luisteren naar de conversatie op de bank thuis

Martijn Kriens | @martijnkriens

Martijn Kriens

@martijnkriens | martijn@upstream.nl

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Conversation and communication

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Conversation and communication

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Conversation and communication

From my fathers century to my sons century

Facebook Daily in NL

12.000.000  

Twitter Daily tweets in NL

5.000.000  

Sources Dutch social web In the Netherlands

390.000  

Social media use per agegroup

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20 - 34 jaar 35 - 49 jaar 50 - 64 jaar 65 jaar e.o.

social media

social media

Feb.  2012,  O&S  Amsterdam  

The  new  electronic  interdependence  recreates  the  world  in  the  image  of  a  global  village    

Marshall  McLuhan  

# political messages 25 Maart tot en met 23 September 2012

5  Miljoen  berichten!  

Val  kabinet  

Programma’s  

Verkiezingen  

# last month before election 2,2 Miljoen berichten (normaal is ongeveer 50.000 per maand)

RTL  Premier-­‐debat  RTL  Carre-­‐debat   NOS  Slotdebat  

Verkiezingsdag  

EO  debat  

Sources political messages Van de 2,2 Miljoen totaal in maand voorafgaand aan de verkiezingen

Bron Aantal Twitter 1.644.184 Nieuws 224.855 Facebook 96.168 Forum 50.135 Blog 35.105 Hyves 21.967 Overigen Minder dan 1%

Twi,er  is  the  most  important  social  pla5orm  for  poli7cal  discussion  

Authors in last month before election Verdeling over Twitteraars

•  Roelfina090444 stuurde 5767 berichten!

•  Bovenste 500 samen 300.000 berichten –  Ongeveer 15%, 500ste heeft bijna 300 berichten gestuurd in

30 dagen tijd

•  Totaal 300.000 auteurs

How to determine sentiment Volgen van specifiek sentiment in relatie tot lijsttrekkers

Y-­‐as  is  percentage,  totaal  vier  lijs<rekkers  is  100%  

Role sentiment in debates “Mijnheer Rutte, nu doet u het weer. Opmerking bij de start stuurt sentiment hele debat

Role sentiment in debates Ook scherpe stijging aantal reacties na “U doet het weer

“Nu  doet  u  het  weer”  

Role sentiment in debates Wilders maakte vooral theater en krijgt daar veel “positieve” aandacht mee

Carré debat 1 op 1 sessies scoren

Winnaar Carré debat?

Partij of partijleider Samsom trekt PVDA omhoog

Voorspellende waarde Op basis van aantallen berichten, berekend op basis van trendlijnen

VVD                41  PVDA          40          SP    15  PVV    15  CDA    12  

Premier-­‐debat  

Conclusions

•  Sentiment can be measured but relation to the election outcome is hazy –  VVD had in general a negative sentiment but did win the

election •  Total number of messages per party/chairman has a

relation to election outcome (2010/2012) –  But tuning the statistical message is still a challenge

•  Social monitoring delivers valuable information for a political party –  Buzz and sentiment can steer attitude and content in debates

Project X Haren De wisselwerking tussen massa en sociale media

Project X Haren

A  16  year  old  girl  invites  some  friends  to  het  sweet  sixteen  party…  

Project X Haren Before Merthe’s invitation already a regular stream on ProjectX

Ongeveer  150  berichten  per  dag  

Alle  data:  bron  

Project X Haren 7 September plaatst Merthe haar uitnodiging

Slechts  401  berichten  tot  en  met  17  September!  (Facebook  32  originele  berichten  waar  219  reac2es  op  zijn  gegeven.  Reac2es  komen  bovenop  de  401.  Twicer  Gemiddeld  2  reac2es  op  bericht.    Totaal  maakt  dat  ongeveer  1000  berichten  In  10  dagen)    

Project X Haren Until 17th of September mainly messages from region Groningen

Project X Haren 18th September 10:39 message in national newspaper

Project X Haren National TV broadcaster NOS places message on website

Project X Haren Tweet from NOS on 15:29 starts the real buzz on social media

Project X Haren Evening on the 18th of September the buzz grows again after the late news items NOS and RTL4

In  de  avond  van  de  18e  September  Komt  ProjectX  Haren  op  TV,  late  journaal  en  Nieuws  

Project X Haren At that moment subjects covered are mainly about the government actions itself

Project X Haren Messages spread but are still mainly from the Groningen region

Project X Haren 19th and 20th September it grows to 11.000 messages. Main subject is youth planning to join the “party”

Project X Haren Messages are more and more comming from all over the country

Nog  steeds  65%  van  de  berichten  uit  de  regio  Groningen  

Project X Haren 21th of September during the day the number of messages grows f100 per minute, mainly people discussing a visit

Project X Haren In the evening it further growths, especially after 20:30. Topics mainly from younger people

Project X Haren Late in the evening it growts to almost 2000 messages a minute when the Dutch follow the riots on TV

Main  topic:  catch  the  rioteers  

Project X Haren Discussion in the whole of the Netherlands

Project X Haren The day after most of the discussion focuses on who is to blame

Totaal  350.000  berichten  

Project X Haren A Perfect Storm

•  Recent film “Project X” –  Popular movie among young people

•  Mass media that focus attention –  Government preparation makes the issue

“serious” •  Ability to organise with social media

–  Easier to assemble and coordinate groups –  “Cooperation without coordination”

•  Hooligans –  Hooligans finding new channels because

socker is protected

Project X Haren

Project X Haren Verantwoording

•  Invitational pages for party are not used –  Because “liking” is a low participation action

•  Some facebook and twitter pages are closed –  But closed accounts are not very viral

•  “Professional hooligans do not communicate over open channels –  But hooligans need a crowd and you nee open channels to create a crowd

Project X Arnhem The start

In  the  evening  a  Facebook  page  is  made  that  immediately  a,racts  a,en7on  in  the  night    Messages  mainly  from  Arnhem  

Project X Arnhem Page creation until 28th September (date of the “party”)

Prac7cally  no  buzz  from  the  crea7on  of  the  page  un7l  the  date  of  the  party  

Project X Arnhem Afternoon 28th September

15:30  ar7cle  on  the  government  ac7on  by  the  NOS  on  the  webpage  

Project X Arnhem Late afternoon, early evening

Short  burst  of  a,en7on  due  to  the  police  barricades  at  the  entrance  of  the  city  

Hardly  any  conversa7on  of  youth  talking  about  going  to  the  party  

Proposal Creative Industries

News  dynamics  in  networks  of  media,  stakeholders  and  audiences:  trajectories  of  aIenJon  and  senJment  in  semanJc  networks  

Marketingfacts jaarboek 2012

http://www.marketingfacts.nl/jaarboek/

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