ICT Delta presentatie

Politieke monitoring sociale media Luisteren naar de conversatie op de bank thuis

Martijn Kriens | @martijnkriens

UPSTREAM

@upstream | www.upstream.nl

Marketingfact, TravelNext, FoodNext, SportNext, UMCN St. Radboud, Deli XL, HAN, Rabobank, ING, WNF, Efteling, TUI Nederland, Omroep Gelderland, TMG, Arnhem Dichtbij, RTL, Cito, Bank van Morgen, AIM, Gemeente Nijmegen, RTLNieuws

Conversation and communication

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From my fathers century to my sons century

Facebook Daily in NL

12.000.000

Twitter Daily tweets in NL

5.000.000

Sources Dutch social web In the Netherlands

390.000

Social media use per agegroup

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20 - 34 jaar 35 - 49 jaar 50 - 64 jaar 65 jaar e.o.

social media

social media

Feb. 2012, O&S Amsterdam

The new electronic interdependence recreates the world in the image of a global village

Marshall McLuhan

# political messages 25 Maart tot en met 23 September 2012

5 Miljoen berichten!

Val kabinet

Programma’s

Verkiezingen

# last month before election 2,2 Miljoen berichten (normaal is ongeveer 50.000 per maand)

RTL Premier-‐debat RTL Carre-‐debat NOS Slotdebat

Verkiezingsdag

EO debat

Sources political messages Van de 2,2 Miljoen totaal in maand voorafgaand aan de verkiezingen

Bron Aantal Twitter 1.644.184 Nieuws 224.855 Facebook 96.168 Forum 50.135 Blog 35.105 Hyves 21.967 Overigen Minder dan 1%

Twi,er is the most important social pla5orm for poli7cal discussion

Authors in last month before election Verdeling over Twitteraars

•  Roelfina090444 stuurde 5767 berichten!

•  Bovenste 500 samen 300.000 berichten –  Ongeveer 15%, 500ste heeft bijna 300 berichten gestuurd in

30 dagen tijd

•  Totaal 300.000 auteurs

How to determine sentiment Volgen van specifiek sentiment in relatie tot lijsttrekkers

Y-‐as is percentage, totaal vier lijs<rekkers is 100%

Role sentiment in debates “Mijnheer Rutte, nu doet u het weer. Opmerking bij de start stuurt sentiment hele debat

Role sentiment in debates Ook scherpe stijging aantal reacties na “U doet het weer

“Nu doet u het weer”

Role sentiment in debates Wilders maakte vooral theater en krijgt daar veel “positieve” aandacht mee

Carré debat 1 op 1 sessies scoren

Winnaar Carré debat?

Partij of partijleider Samsom trekt PVDA omhoog

Voorspellende waarde Op basis van aantallen berichten, berekend op basis van trendlijnen

VVD 41 PVDA 40 SP 15 PVV 15 CDA 12

Premier-‐debat

Conclusions

•  Sentiment can be measured but relation to the election outcome is hazy –  VVD had in general a negative sentiment but did win the

election •  Total number of messages per party/chairman has a

relation to election outcome (2010/2012) –  But tuning the statistical message is still a challenge

•  Social monitoring delivers valuable information for a political party –  Buzz and sentiment can steer attitude and content in debates

Project X Haren De wisselwerking tussen massa en sociale media

Project X Haren

A 16 year old girl invites some friends to het sweet sixteen party…

Project X Haren Before Merthe’s invitation already a regular stream on ProjectX

Ongeveer 150 berichten per dag

Alle data: bron

Project X Haren 7 September plaatst Merthe haar uitnodiging

Slechts 401 berichten tot en met 17 September! (Facebook 32 originele berichten waar 219 reac2es op zijn gegeven. Reac2es komen bovenop de 401. Twicer Gemiddeld 2 reac2es op bericht. Totaal maakt dat ongeveer 1000 berichten In 10 dagen)

Project X Haren Until 17th of September mainly messages from region Groningen

Project X Haren 18th September 10:39 message in national newspaper

Project X Haren National TV broadcaster NOS places message on website

Project X Haren Tweet from NOS on 15:29 starts the real buzz on social media

Project X Haren Evening on the 18th of September the buzz grows again after the late news items NOS and RTL4

In de avond van de 18e September Komt ProjectX Haren op TV, late journaal en Nieuws

Project X Haren At that moment subjects covered are mainly about the government actions itself

Project X Haren Messages spread but are still mainly from the Groningen region

Project X Haren 19th and 20th September it grows to 11.000 messages. Main subject is youth planning to join the “party”

Project X Haren Messages are more and more comming from all over the country

Nog steeds 65% van de berichten uit de regio Groningen

Project X Haren 21th of September during the day the number of messages grows f100 per minute, mainly people discussing a visit

Project X Haren In the evening it further growths, especially after 20:30. Topics mainly from younger people

Project X Haren Late in the evening it growts to almost 2000 messages a minute when the Dutch follow the riots on TV

Main topic: catch the rioteers

Project X Haren Discussion in the whole of the Netherlands

Project X Haren The day after most of the discussion focuses on who is to blame

Totaal 350.000 berichten

Project X Haren A Perfect Storm

•  Recent film “Project X” –  Popular movie among young people

•  Mass media that focus attention –  Government preparation makes the issue

“serious” •  Ability to organise with social media

–  Easier to assemble and coordinate groups –  “Cooperation without coordination”

•  Hooligans –  Hooligans finding new channels because

socker is protected

Project X Haren

Project X Haren Verantwoording

•  Invitational pages for party are not used –  Because “liking” is a low participation action

•  Some facebook and twitter pages are closed –  But closed accounts are not very viral

•  “Professional hooligans do not communicate over open channels –  But hooligans need a crowd and you nee open channels to create a crowd

Project X Arnhem The start

In the evening a Facebook page is made that immediately a,racts a,en7on in the night Messages mainly from Arnhem

Project X Arnhem Page creation until 28th September (date of the “party”)

Prac7cally no buzz from the crea7on of the page un7l the date of the party

Project X Arnhem Afternoon 28th September

15:30 ar7cle on the government ac7on by the NOS on the webpage

Project X Arnhem Late afternoon, early evening

Short burst of a,en7on due to the police barricades at the entrance of the city

Hardly any conversa7on of youth talking about going to the party

Proposal Creative Industries

News dynamics in networks of media, stakeholders and audiences: trajectories of aIenJon and senJment in semanJc networks

Marketingfacts jaarboek 2012

http://www.marketingfacts.nl/jaarboek/

UPSTREAM It’s all about Content, Conversation and Collaboration

@martijnkriens | [email protected] | Martijn Kriens

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COLLABORATION

CONTENT Questions?

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