Market Trend after the CrisisA Case in Japanese Outbound Travel

by Hiroshi KurosuJTB Foundation, Tokyo

Session 3, Day 1

GDP and Departure Rate by Gender

2All right reserved by JTB Foundation Departure rate = No. of Departure per capita

-15%

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

+0.0%

+0.2%

+0.4%

+0.6%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q

2007 2008 2009 2010

Gro

wth

of r

eal G

DP,

ann

ualiz

ed a

nd s

easo

nally

adj

uste

d

Gro

wth

of d

epar

ture

rate

Real GDP growth

Male

Female

Rise of JPY and Japanese Arrivals to Korea

All right reserved by JTB Foundation 3

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4

2007 2008 2009 2010

Kor

ean

Won

to J

PY

(100

JPY

)

YoY

arr

ival

gro

wth

Arrival growth

JPY per Korean Won

Economy Under Long Lasting Deflation

All right reserved by JTB Foundation 4

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1990 1995 2000 2005 2009

GD

P G

ap (%

)

GD

P D

efla

tor

GDP Def lator

GDP Gap

Source: IMF

Departure Growth by Gender Age Group

All right reserved by JTB Foundation 5

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

0-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-

Gro

wth

of d

epar

ture

rate

2009 vs. 2008

Female Male

Growth of Passport Issues by Gender Age groupJune 2009~May 2010 (12 months)

All right reserved by JTB Foundation 6

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Under 20 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80 and over

YoY

gro

wth

FemaleMale

Rising Senior Market

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60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Depa

rture

s, M

AT

inde

xed

2000

=100

Over 60 male

Over 60 female

Japanese Arrivals to DestinationsYTD 2010

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-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

South KoreaMacau

VietnamChina

Hong KongGuamHawaiiTaiwan

MalaysiaNorthern Mariana

SingaporeNew Zealand

Australia

YTD 2010 cf. same period in 2008

Japanese Arrivals to China by Age Group

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-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q

2008 2009 2010

YoY

grow

th

15-2425-4445-6465 and over

Japanese Arrivals to Korea by Age Group

All right reserved by JTB Foundation 10

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6

2008 2009 2010

YoY

gro

wth

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61 and over

Improving Imagefor Northeast Asian Destinations

• Holiday market has been shifting to short-hauls from long-hauls since last decade

and now…• Both satisfaction levels and wish-to-return

rates are improving among those who visited Northeast Asian destinations

• Popularity for short-hauls as next holiday destinations is rising

All right reserved by JTB Foundation 11

All right reserved by JTB Foundation 12

Implication to Regional Tourism• Demand for destinations in the region will

increase significantly as mid-long term trend– Senior travelers will lead the growth– Touring holiday will remain popular

• Total consumption in the region will grow– Average spending per trip may fall down

• More Japanese entrepreneurs are going to participate in the tourism product development in the region

• Japan will come into the LCC networkAll right reserved by JTB Foundation 13

Thank you