Dr Brendan Williams Dr Harutyun Shahumyan€¦ · Dr Harutyun Shahumyan . t UEP Overview...
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Urban Environment Project Dublin 2026 : Future Urban Form; Expansion Contraction and Dispersal. Challenges in Managing the development market and impacts on the Urban Environment . Dr Brendan Williams Dr Harutyun Shahumyan
Transcript of Dr Brendan Williams Dr Harutyun Shahumyan€¦ · Dr Harutyun Shahumyan . t UEP Overview...
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Dublin 2026 : Future Urban Form; Expansion
Contraction and Dispersal.
Challenges in Managing the development market and
impacts on the Urban Environment .
Dr Brendan Williams
Dr Harutyun Shahumyan
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Overview
• Evidence Based Analysis needed for Environmental Management and concerns –
• Urban management Plans, Resource allocation and Realities of development
• Alternative Approaches and Supporting evidence: Land use led / implementation of Reforms /Integrated Managed Process
© Spatial Planning Unit, DoELG 2002 Used by Permission
• Balancing of advantages and burdens
within a region which offers synergy
effects
Dr. Brendan Williams, University College
Dublin
Dr. Brendan Williams,
University College Dublin
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Current and Planned
Waste Water Treatment Capacity
Current (2009)
Planned (2020)
Development Plans and Urban Management U
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•During plan formulation and development there is no ready means of evaluating different policy options or different combinations of policy options •Difficult to estimate ,evaluate or represent the effects of one option over another •Difficult to understand how the various interactions influence each other at different geographical and temporal scales •Difficult to integrate the priorities of different sectors in the planning process (and often the organisations involved have no reliable means of debating their positions) e.g. transport section, water services division etc •Difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of land use planning as a way of managing resource use and the environmental effects thereof
Residential area development in Donabate catchment
area (currently W4, W7A from 2018) in Fingal
Residential areas developed from 2000 to 2026
Residential areas existing in 2000 Catchment boundaries
County boundaries
Scenario 1: Low growth Scenario 2: Medium growth Scenario 3: High growth
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• Typically only one set of options developed
for comment and feedback
• Difficult to establish interconnections and
interdependencies between the various
strands over SPACE and TIME.
• Inherent design flaws. Zoning/Rezoning
system Excessive and facilitative rather than
strategic and directed, Retention provisions.
Ad hoc.
• Planning Gain Conflicts .Land Interests and
Public Interests. Property Rights,
development rights ,Infrastructure rights.
• Who benefits and Why. Evidence or
influence based decisions
Key Limitations with existing approach
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Zoning rules associated with maps coloured to signify
uses or combinations of uses allowed.
Draft Plans and associated maps inter alia for:
– Environment and amenity (biodiversity, air quality, open space, landscape protection)
– Industry and commerce (office and industrial zones and parks)
– Recreation (parks, playgrounds, sports areas, hiking, water recreation etc), Settlement (houses, apartments)
– Solid Waste disposal
– Transport (roads, rail, air, cycle, harbours)
– Water and sewage – reservoirs, pipes, wastewater treatment
Traditional Land Use Planning as Policy
Instrument
Moland: A spatial dynamics model for simulating urban and regional growth. Adapted for use in 20 regions.
Takes as input different types of spatially referenced digital data: • Land use (actual land use) • Accessibility (access to transport network) • Land use zoning status (legal constraints for different land uses) • Land use suitability (inherent suitability for different land uses) • Socio-economic data (population, income, production, employment,
etc.)
The model outputs maps showing the predicted land use development over a period of specified years.
By modifying the input data, the model can be used to explore, in a realistic way, alternative spatial planning and policy scenarios.
An Evidence Base Spatial and Temporal: EU
JRC model
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Land Use Transition in MOLAND Model
Input scenarios
• Population
• Income
• Production
• Employment
• etc.
Socio-economic statistics
Current land use
1988
Transport network
1988
Zoning status
Suitability
Output indicators (examples)
Potential noise pollution
(Munich)
European Common Indicators
(Copenhagen)
2008
Green edge
(Dublin)
Visibility of transport links
(Trans-border Alpine site)
2008
Access to green areas
(Dublin)
2008
Habitat suitability
(Dublin)
Spatial planning and
policy recommendations
and guidelines
MOLAND urban and
regional growth model
Predicted land use
2008
How does MOLAND work?
Sample MOLAND Simulation - Output
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A range of what-if scenarios can be explored A variety of spatial planning policies can be
assessed The environmental impacts of different land-
use policies can be quantified Provide robust framework for comparing,
discussing and visualising a variety of spatial planning policies
Why is Urban and Regional analysis assisted
by MOLAND Useful?
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Study Area
Between 1996 and 2006 Ireland’s population growth was five times the
European average of 3.25% (EPA, 2008)
The Greater Dublin Region experienced the biggest growth nationally with an
increase of 8.3% between 2002 and 2006 (CSO, 2007)
Greater Dublin Area
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
GDA Population Growth
(1926-2006)
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To test whether UEP research can
overcome these limitations by
providing: – More Choices - credible scenario choices to
decision-makers and the public
– Interconnections - show implications (especially for settlement and environment) of alternative combinations of policies in regard to zoning and land use, and transport infrastructure investment
– More Clarity on role of Land Use Planning as Policy Instrument - demonstrate the effectiveness or otherwise of land use policies.
Core OBJECTIVE of UEP Research
• Strategic spatial planning: compact city
versus dispersed city ? Contracting Urban
Areas?
• Develop alternative approaches
• Evaluate development impacts of
alternatives
• Illustrate consequent urban form
patterns
• Assist informed choices
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Demonstrating What MOLAND Can Do
Greater Dublin Area
Waste Water Case Study
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Finding
MOLAND may be usefully applied in exploring
the spatial distribution of land uses under a
range of population scenarios. This allows for
the proposed increase in waste water
treatment capacity for the region to be
evaluated in a spatial context under three
spatially explicit scenarios of population
expansion in the region.
Strategic Spatial Planning and Development
Urban Development Scenarios
Compact ,dispersed, linear, polycentric,BAU
1. “Dispersed Development Scenario” –
Baseline simulation – limited zoning
restrictions
2. “Compact City Scenario” – Future
development contained within the limits of
the Metropolitan Area as defined by the
Regional Planning Guidelines (2004).
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Dispersed Development
Scenario
‘Residential
Sparse
Discontinuous Urban Fabric’
Growth in sparse discontinuous is
very dispersed but mostly proximate
to existing settlements
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Compact City Scenario
Development is highly
concentrated within
‘metropolitan’ area
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Research Projects
Housing
Urban sprawl and Market
Fragmentation
Housing Market demand 2009-
2013
Urban Regeneration
Fiscal Incentives and urban
regeneration
Enterprise and Regeneration
Policies: The role of economic clusters n
regeneration startegies
PLUREL
FP6 Collaborative Project – 31
Partners
Peri-urban land use
relationships – Strategies and Sustainability Assessment
Tools for Urban Rural Linkages
LUMAN
Land Use Modelling and
Analysis Network
‘Spatial Simulation for
the Social Sciences’ Early stage researcher training and showcasing
state-of-the-art research. For
Irish and European students. Funded by IRCHSS
FP7 Marie Curie
International Research Staff
Exchange Scheme with New Zealand and Belgium
SUMMER SCHOOL
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Scope
Funding
Administered by the EPA, through the Environmental Research and Technical Innovation program, 2000-2006 Total budget: €32m
Project budget €1.2m over 4 years
Duration
48 months from February 2006
Personnel
5 PhD students, 1 Post-Doc, Project manager, Director, 10+ academic supervisors, modelling team
Multi-disciplinary
Air quality, Climate change, Transport, Biodiversity, Urban sprawl
Inter-institutional
UCD (4 Schools across 2 Colleges)
NUI Maynooth
Trinity College Dublin
ERA Maptec Ltd.
OSNI
Local authorities
(Dublin city, South Dublin, Dun Laoghare-Rathdown, Fingal, Meath, Louth, Kildare, Wicklow)
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• Working Papers
• and additional information available from
Downloads section
• Chapter 2 Dubben and Williams
• www.uep.ie
