Post on 01-Feb-2021
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National**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVIDIHME
ISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100k
200k
300k
400k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVIDIHME
ISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100k
200k
300k
400k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Alabama
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
7k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
7k
●●
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●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
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Alaska
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
10
20
30
40N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
10
20
30
40
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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American Samoa
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arizona
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arkansas
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
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400
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●
●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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California**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
10k
20k
30k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
10k
20k
30k
●
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Colorado*
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
●
●
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●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
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Connecticut
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●● ●
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Delaware
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
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●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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District of Columbia
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
10
20
30
40
50N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
JHU−APLKarlenLANLMIT−LCPOliver WymanPSIESG
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
10
20
30
40
50
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ●
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD
JHU−APLKarlenLANLMIT−LCPOliver WymanPSIESG
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUMass−MBUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Florida**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
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●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
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Georgia**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
●
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EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
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Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●● ●
●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Guam
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedJCBJHU−CSSE
JHU−IDDJHU−APLPSI
ESGUCLAUMass−MB
USC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
● ●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
● ● ●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedJCBJHU−CSSE
JHU−IDDJHU−APLPSI
ESGUCLAUMass−MB
USC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
●
● ● ●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
● ●
Hawaii**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
IHMEJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
● ●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
●
●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
IHMEJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Idaho
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
Illinois*
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●●
●
●
● ●●
Indiana
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●●
●
●
● ●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Iowa
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
ISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP
MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEU
UMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Kansas
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Kentucky
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ● ●● ●
● ●
●●
Louisiana
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●● ●
● ●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●● ●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●● ●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Maine**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
100N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
● ●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●● ●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●● ●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Maryland
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
● ●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●●
●●
●● ●
●
● ●
Massachusetts**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●● ●
●
● ●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
Michigan*
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
Minnesota*
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ●
● ●● ●
●
●●
Mississippi
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
● ●● ●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Missouri
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
Montana
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Nebraska
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
● ●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ●
●●
● ●
●
●●
Nevada
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW
CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
● ●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●●
● ●●
●●
●
New Hampshire**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●
●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ● ●
●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ● ●
●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ● ●
●
●●
●
●●
New Jersey**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
● ● ●
●
●●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
New Mexico
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1k
2k
3k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
New York**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
● ●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
● ●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●● ●
●
●●
●●
●
North Carolina**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●● ●
●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
●
●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
North Dakota*
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwaniWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Northern Mariana Islands
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1
2
3
4
5
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
1
2
3
4
5
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
Ohio
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●● ● ●
●
●
●●
●
Oklahoma
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●● ● ●
●
●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
3.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
3.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Oregon
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
● ● ●●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
Pennsylvania**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
● ● ●●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Puerto Rico
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19Sim
JCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLPSIESGUCLAUMass−MB
USCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100●
●● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19Sim
JCBJHU−CSSEKarlenLANL
PSIESGUCLAUMass−MB
USCWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ● ● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
Rhode Island
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
200
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ●●
●●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
South Carolina**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●
●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●●
● ●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ●●
● ●●
●●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
2k
4k
6k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
South Dakota*
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
50
100
150
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models
Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
● ●●
● ●●
●
●
Tennessee**
Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID
IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft
MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete