●● ●

●●

● ●

●

●

●

National**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

25k

30kN

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVIDIHME

ISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

MOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ●

●●

● ●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

25k

30k

●●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100k

200k

300k

400k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVIDIHME

ISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

MOBSOliver WymanPSIQJHongESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100k

200k

300k

400k

●●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Alabama

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

●

● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●● ●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

6k

7k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●● ●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

6k

7k

●●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Alaska

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

10

20

30

40N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

10

20

30

40

● ●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●

●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●

●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

●

●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

American Samoa

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSCWalmart

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●

●

● ● ● ●

●

●

●

Arizona

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2kN

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●

●

● ● ● ●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

●●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

● ●●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

12k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

● ●●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

12k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

Arkansas

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

●● ●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●● ●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

ISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwaniWalmart

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●● ●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ● ● ● ●● ●

●

●

●

California**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ●● ●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ● ●

● ●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

10k

20k

30k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ● ●

● ●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

10k

20k

30k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

Colorado*

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

●●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●

● ●●

●

●

●

●

● ●

Connecticut

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ●● ●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ●● ●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

Delaware

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

100

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

100

●●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●● ●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●● ●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

District of Columbia

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

10

20

30

40

50N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia

DDSGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD

JHU−APLKarlenLANLMIT−LCPOliver WymanPSIESG

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUMass−MBUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

10

20

30

40

50

●●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ●● ●

●● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDD

JHU−APLKarlenLANLMIT−LCPOliver WymanPSIESG

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUMass−MBUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ●● ●

●● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●

● ●●

●

●

●● ●

Florida**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

● ●●

●

●

●● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

●●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

25k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

25k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

● ●●

●

●

●●

●

●●

Georgia**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●

●

●●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●● ●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●● ●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Guam

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedJCBJHU−CSSE

JHU−IDDJHU−APLPSI

ESGUCLAUMass−MB

USC

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

● ●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

●●

●

● ● ●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedJCBJHU−CSSE

JHU−IDDJHU−APLPSI

ESGUCLAUMass−MB

USC

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

●●

●

● ● ●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

● ● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●

●

●

●●

● ●

●

● ●

Hawaii**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

IHMEJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

●●

● ●

●

● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

●

●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

● ●● ●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

IHMEJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

● ●● ●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Idaho

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

● ●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●

● ●

●

●

● ●

●●

●

Illinois*

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5kN

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

● ●

●

●

● ●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

●●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

● ●

●●

●

●

● ●●

Indiana

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

● ●

●●

●

●

● ●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

● ●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Iowa

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

●

●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

6k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

ISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoftMIT−LCP

MOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEU

UMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

6k

●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

Kansas

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

●● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Kentucky

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●●

●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

●

●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ● ● ●● ●

● ●

●●

Louisiana

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ●● ●

● ●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

● ●● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●● ●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●● ●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●● ●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

Maine**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

100N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●

● ●●

● ●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

100

●●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ●● ●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ●● ●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●● ● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Maryland

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

● ●● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●●

●●

●● ●

●

● ●

Massachusetts**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●● ●

●

● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

●●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

● ●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

● ●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

● ●●

Michigan*

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

● ●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

●

●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●●

Minnesota*

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

●●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k●

●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●● ●

● ●● ●

●

●●

Mississippi

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ●

● ●● ●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

●● ●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

6k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

6k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Missouri

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

● ●●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

● ●●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●

●

● ●

●

●●

●

●

Montana

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

● ●

●

●●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwaniWalmart

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Nebraska

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

● ●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●

●●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

●

●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●● ●

●●

● ●

●

●●

Nevada

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UW

CovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●● ●

●●

● ●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

● ●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

4k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

●●

● ●●

●●

●

New Hampshire**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

● ●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

●

●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ● ●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ● ●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

● ● ●

●

●●

●

●●

New Jersey**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●

● ● ●

●

●●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

●●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ●● ●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ●● ●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

New Mexico

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

● ●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1k

2k

3k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

New York**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ●

● ●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ●● ●

● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

10k

20k

30k

40k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ●● ●

● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

10k

20k

30k

40k●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●

●● ●

●

●●

●●

●

North Carolina**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●● ●

●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

●

●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●● ●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIRPI−UWCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●● ●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

North Dakota*

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwaniWalmart

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

●●

●●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

*New weekly deaths may decrease in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat fewer deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Northern Mariana Islands

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1

2

3

4

5

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

1

2

3

4

5

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●●

● ●

●

●

●●

●

Ohio

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●●

● ●

●

●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

●● ●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

12k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

8k

10k

12k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●● ● ●

●

●

●●

●

Oklahoma

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●● ● ●

●

●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

●●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

3k

3.5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

3k

3.5k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

● ●●

●

●

●

●●

●

Oregon

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

● ●●

●

●

●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

● ● ●●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●● ● ●

●

●●

●

●

●

Pennsylvania**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5kN

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●

● ● ●●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

●● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

5k

10k

15k

20k

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

Puerto Rico

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19Sim

JCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLPSIESGUCLAUMass−MB

USCWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100●

●● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19Sim

JCBJHU−CSSEKarlenLANL

PSIESGUCLAUMass−MB

USCWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●●

●●

●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

●●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

● ● ● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

Rhode Island

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200N

ew W

eekl

y D

eath

sReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ● ● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

200

● ● ● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

● ●● ●

● ●●

●●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

2.5k

●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●

●●

●●

●

●

● ●

●

South Carolina**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●●

●●

●

●

● ●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

100

200

300

400

500

●

●

● ●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

● ●●

● ●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidCompleteUAUCLA

UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

● ●●

● ●●

●●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

2k

4k

6k

●●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

● ●

●

South Dakota*

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS

GT−DeepCOVIDIHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen

LANLMicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete

UAUCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

● ●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

50

100

150

●

●

●

●

EnsembleIndividual models

Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

Tota

l Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL

MicrosoftMIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA

UCLAUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWadhwani

Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

500

1k

1.5k

2k

●

●●

●

EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction IntervalsOuter Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals

Update: 2020−12−21 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html

●●

● ●●

● ●●

●

●

Tennessee**

Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15 Jan−01 Jan−15

0

200

400

600

800

1k

1.2k

New

Wee

kly

Dea

ths

ReportedBPaganoCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGT−DeepCOVID

IHMEISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMicrosoft

MIT−LCPMOBSOliver WymanPSIESGRPI−UWCovidComplete