Post on 04-Jun-2015
Ervaring rond transitie in Nederland in landbouw en voeding
5 november 2012,
Krijn J. Poppe Aalst (B)
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Inhoud
Een korte historie en stand van het transitie onderzoek in Nederland
Enkele onderschatte aspecten in transities
De rol van transitie en – innovatiebeleid
●Topsectorenbeleid
●EU: Horizon2020, GLB-post 2013 en EIP
Een korte historie en stand van het transitie onderzoek in Nederland
Prof. Jan Rotmans (Rivm, Maastricht, Rotterdam – EUR/DRIFT)
Maatschappelijk-technologisch onderzoek aan de TU’s (o.a. F. Geels, Multi-level perspective)
KSI project Rotmans, Grin, Schot et al.
NWO project rond Energie
Wageningen UR: Kennisbasis-programma – naast systeem-innovatieprogramma’s, Vakgroepen
LNV’s Innovatienet.
Transforum
Veel is inmiddels beeindigd en gepubliceerd
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Wat heeft het opgeleverd ?
●Wetenschappelijke output, die internationaal gebruikt wordt
●Aandacht voor transities en structurele verandering
●Discussies over transitie-management en beleid
●Resultaten van actie-onderzoek: nieuwe concepten (bv. Ronddeel als kippenstal) en (lokale) initiatieven (bv. Stadslandbouw Rotterdam)
●Als er al Rijksbeleid in transitiemanagement is geweest, dan weinig effectief want huidige structuren en business models werken nog volop
●Vgl. Energie, Mobiliteit, Voedsel
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Enkele onderschatte aspecten in transities
●Rol van de consument (en technologie-adoptie)
●Zie Spaargaren et al. 2012
●Roeselare, 1960s: van vlas naar vries
●De business cycle
●Political economy en machtsvraagstukken
●Energie ?
●Geo-politiek
tijd
Mate van verspreiding
van technologische revolutie
Installatie periode
Volgende
golf
Uitrol periode
Draai-punt
INDRINGER
EXTASE
SYNERGIE
RIJPHEID
Door-
braak
Werkeloosheid
Stilstand oude bedrijfstakken
Kapitaal zoekt nieuwe techniek
Financiele bubble
Onevenwichtigheden
Polarisatie arm en rijk
Gouden eeuw
Coherente groei
Toenemende externalities
Techniek bereikt grenzen
Marktverzadiging
Teleurstelling en gemakzucht
Institutionele
innovatie
Naar Perez, 2002
Crash
2008
1929
1893
1847
1797
time
Degree of diffusion of thetechnological revoluton
Installation period
Nextwave
Deploymentperiod
Turningpoint
IRRUPTION
FRENZY
SYNERGY
MATURITY
Big Bang
UnemploymentDecline of old industries
Capital searches new techniques
Financial bubbleDecoupling in the systemPolarisation poor and rich
Golden ageCoherent growth
Increasing externalities
Last products & industriesMarket saturation
Disappointment vscomplacency
Crash
2008
1929
1893
1847
1797
Institutional
innovation
Based on Perez, 2002
The opportunity for green growth
1771 water , textile
1829 steam, railways
1875 steel
1908 car, oil, massproduction
1971 ICT chip
National States
Many actors
Coope-rative
Non coope-rative
Multipolair• Power blocks• Economic and
politcal competition• Protectionism
Fragmentation• Stagnating globalisation• Insecure society• Identity first
Multilateral• Strong west and upcoming
BRICs• Global governance reformed• Globalisation continues
Network• Non-polair world order• Global market economy and
civil society• Unpredictable
Four scenarios on Scarcity and Transition
7© De Ruijter Strategie
The Shell 2025 Scenario study
– a geopolitics view
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De rol van transitie- en innovatiebeleid
●Transitie-management
●Rijksoverheidsbeleid maar tijdelijk van aard
●Landbouw: ● “de overheid houdt geen kippen”● Consumentenbeleid achter de
voordeur niet aantrekkelijk● Liever de Productivity dan de
Sufficiency narrative
●Topsectorenbeleid (na fusie LNV en EZ): bedrijfsleven veel meer aan het stuur
●EU: Horizon2020, GLB-post 2013 en EIP
EU’s SCAR Foresight: two narratives
Productivity:
Science has the potential to develop technologies that can boost productivity whilst addressing resource scarcities and environmental problems
Massive investments needed in R&D, technology adoption, rural infrastructure, access to markets
GRIN technologies (Genetics, Robotics, Informatics, Nano)
Sufficiency:
Science has the potential to develop technological solutions that are productive, reduce resource use, preserve biodiversity
However, demand increases need to be mitigated, through behavorial change, structural changes food systems
Appropriate governance structures to internalise externalities
11 Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation
Economics: thinking on equilibrium and dis-eq.
• Ricardo• Marshall• Walras• Coase• Hayek• Friedman• Ostrom
• F. List: infant industry
• K. Marx: role of capitalist
• J. Schumpeter: entrepreneur / business cycle
• K. Arrow: market failure
• O. Williamson: Inst. Econ.
Adam Smith
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Two views on innovation policy (Smits et al, 2010) Mainstream macro-economics Institutional and evolutionary
economics: Systems of InnovationMain assumptions Equilibrium
Perfect information
Dis-equilibrium
Asymetric information
Focus Allocation of resources for invention
Individuals
Interaction in innovation processes
Networks and frame conditions
Main policy Science / research policy Innovation policy
Main rationale Market failure Systemic problemsGovernment intervenes to
provide public goods
mitigate externalities
reduce barriers to entry
eliminate inefficient market structures
solve problems in the system
facilitate creation new systems
facilitate transition and avoid lock-in
induce changes in the supporting structure for innovation: create institutions and support networking
main strengths of policies designed under this paradigm
clarity and simplicity
analysis based on long term trends of science-based indicators
context specific
involvement of all policies related to innovation
holistic approach to innovation
main weaknesses of policies designed under this paradigm
linear model of innovation
(institutional) framework conditions are not explicitly considered
difficult to implement
lack of indicators for analysis and evaluation of policy
13 SCAR Collaborative Working Group AKIS
Table S.1 Two types of motivation for research
Aspect Science driven research Innovation driven researchIncentive to program a topic
Emerging science that can contribute to solving a societal issue (or a scientific question)
An issue / problem in society that can be solved by new research, or a new idea to solve an existing issue
Participation of users In demonstration phase / via research dissemination
In agenda setting, defining the problem and during the research process
Quality criteria Scientific quality Relevance (for the sector or a region)Focus Research organisations Networks of producers and users of
knowledge
Diffusion model Linear model System (network) approachType of government policy Science / Research Policy Innovation PolicyEconomic line of thinking (see table 2.1)
Macro-economics Systems of innovation
Finance To a large extent public money: more speculative and large spill over effects
Public-private partnerships very possible / advantageous
The role of the EU Efficiency of scale (member states often too small), smart specialisation between member states, create European research market with harmonisation of hard- and soft infrastructures
Stimulate interaction and learning in Europe between national/regional AKIS.Enable in CAP innovation by networks with farmers
Typical EU examples Horizon 2020, FP7, ERC, some ERAnets, Joint Programming Initiatives
CAP: European Innovation Partnership, LEADER, European Technology Platforms, EIPs, some ERAnets
Type of research Interdisciplinary with absorption capacity in AKIS (to work with material science, ICT, chemistry etc.).
Transdisciplinary and translational with close interactions.
DIFFERENT MOTIVES NEED TO BE ADDRESSED
Rural Development Policy:
• Knowledge transfer• Cooperation• Pilot projects • Demonstration• Advisory services• Investment
Research & Innovation Framework:
• Research projects• Multi-actor projects• Pilot project clusters• Innovation brokers• On-farm
experiments
Operational Groups Operational
Groups
Operational Groups
Operational Groups
Operational Groups
MemberStates
Programmes
ETPs, ERA-Nets, JPIs,
etc.
EIP Network
Rural Development
Committee
Rural Development
NetworkSteering Group
Steering BoardEuropean Innovation Partnership
‚Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability ‘
Standing Committee
on Agricultural Research (SCAR)
Farmers . Advisers . Enterprises . Scientists. NGOs
Horizon 2020ProgrammeCommittee
Scenario’sSterke overheid
Veel ruimte voor markten en burgers
Con-serveren Ontwikkelen
Dank voor uw aandacht
krijn.poppe@wur.nl
www.lei.wur.nl