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@FrankBuytendijk
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Digitalization Is Intensifying
2
Now in 2 years in 5 years
16%
25%
37%
22%
31%
41%
CIO survey (n = 609)
Private SectorWhat % of your revenue is digital?
Now in 2 years in 5 years
42%
60%
77%
CIO survey (n = 344)
Public SectorWhat % of your processes is digital?
"In the future …… all privacyproblemswill be solved."
"In the future …… privacy is gone."
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
A method for building plausible future scenarios and
determining appropriate responses
What Is Scenario Planning?
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Vision ConcernConnected world
• Aligned goals
• All devices connected
Conflicted world
• Zero sum game
• Closed ecosystems
Control
• Deliberate use
• … but privacy?
Freedom
• Innovation
• … but unintended consequences
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Conflicted ConnectedC
ontro
lFr
eedo
m
Digitopia"Social
Infrastructure"
Digital BigBusiness
"Society, Inc."
Digital Bazaar"Sorcerer's apprentice"
DigitalWild West"State of Nature"
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Battle
Customer
Information = Power
Economy
Digital Big Business(Control, Conflicted)
Alliances
Regulatory pressure
Zero-sum gameHigh loyalty
Low satisfaction
No privacy
Heavy monitoring
Complete data integration
Low/Mediumgrowth
High levels ofautomation
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Big DataContinued scandals
Economy
Entrepreneurial
Digital Bazaar(Freedom, Connected)
"Somebody out there is already doing this, they just haven't been caught yet."
Large ecosystem
Endless choice of devices
Many small vendors
Reidentification
Easy access toanalytics
High growth
Randomly distributed
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#GartnerSYM
Privacy protection
High computer literacy
Customers votewith their feet
Value of information
Trust your own measures
Big shifts in networks and
businesses
Digital Wild West(Freedom, Conflicted)
Obfuscation, encryption
"Digital protection"
Sousveillance
Based on exclusivity
Rise of antistandards
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
… but changing social norms
Personal and planet analytics
Collaborative business
Data ownership
Digitopia(Control, Connected)
Monitoring serves the user
(healthcare)
Smart Buildings
Copyright law
Data owned by subject
Permission-based
Global culture vs. local habits
Organizational boundaries blur
Brand value based on user affiliation
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Conflicted ConnectedC
ontro
lFr
eedo
m
Digitopia"Social
Infrastructure"
Digital BigBusiness
"Society, Inc."
Digital Bazaar"Sorcerer's apprentice"
DigitalWild West"State of Nature"
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Digital Wild West Digital Bazaar
DigitopiaDigital Big Business
Current Situation0
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Digital Wild West Digital Bazaar
DigitopiaDigital Big Business
Innovation and Growth1
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Digital Wild West Digital Bazaar
DigitopiaDigital Big Business
Value2
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Digital Wild West Digital Bazaar
DigitopiaDigital Big Business
Economy of Scale3
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Digital Wild West Digital Bazaar
DigitopiaDigital Big Business
Wake Up Call4
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Digital Wild West Digital Bazaar
DigitopiaDigital Big Business
New hype5
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Strategic… imperatives… options… question marks
18
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#GartnerSYM
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON
Portfolio of Strategies Without a Capital "S"
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Keep Calm and Carry On …
• Digital Business• Internet of Things• Cybercrime
• Mass Personalization• … New Technology Adoption
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#GartnerSYM
CREATEOPTIONS
Portfolio of Strategies Without a Capital "S"
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Bimodal IT Helps Stage Commitments
Speed 1: Renovate Core• Reliability, Low Cost, Efficient• Vendor Management• System Integrators• Predictability• Long (Months, Years)
Speed 2: Exploit the New • Agility, Innovation• Business Outcome• Specialized Agency• Uncertainty• Short (Days, Weeks)
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#GartnerSYM
STOP
Portfolio of Strategies Without a Capital "S"
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Stop the Things That Don't Contribute …
• "Bet the Farm" Choices
• One Stop Shop Strategies
• Totalitarian Standardization
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Thoughts to Leave You With
Thinking becomes more important than knowing There are
tipping points Events that
change everything
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Recommended Gartner Research: Scenario Planning
Digitopia: Four Scenarios for Digital Business, and What to Do Now
Frank Buytendijk and Jorge Lopez (G00269114) How the CIO Can Influence Enterprise Strategy
Richard Hunter (G00255692) Use
Scenario Planning to Make Business and IT Strategies More Resilient in an Increasingly Volatile WorldAnsgar Schulte and Mary Mesaglio (G00237486)
Scenario-Based Planning: Toolkit Mary Mesaglio and Dave Aron (G00155342)
For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Recommended Gartner Research: Gartner Scenarios Last Call For Datatopia: Boarding NowFrank Buytendijk
(Gartner Free Research) Maverick* Research: Surviving the Rise of
'Smart Machines,' the Loss of 'Dream Jobs' and '90% Unemployment'Kenneth Brant and others (G00253498)
Security and Risk Management ScenarioPlanning, 2020Paul Proctor and others (G00250811)
IT Planning Guidance for Legal Professionals: The Gartner Legal IT 2020 ScenarioFrench Caldwell and others (G00261391)
2012 Strategic Road Map for Business Gets SocialCarol Rozwell (G00227646)
For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Recommended Reading: Books "Commitment" (2013)
Olav Maassen and others; Hathaway Publications "Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation" (2005)
Kees van der Heijden; John Wiley & Sons "The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain
World" (1991)Peter Schwartz; Currency Doubleday
"Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning" (1994)Henry Mintzberg; Free Press
"Strategy Safari: A Guided Tour Through the Wilds of Strategic Management" (1998)Henry Mintzberg and others; Free Press
"The Mind of a Fox: Scenario Planning in Action" (2001)Chantell Ilbury and Clem Sunter; Human & Rousseau
"Dealing With Dilemmas: Where Business Analytics Fall Short" (2010)Frank Buytendijk; John Wiley & Sons
For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Recommed Reading: Articles Drucker, P., "The Theory of the Business,"
Harvard Business Review, September 1994
Porter, M.E., "What Is Strategy?"Harvard Business Review, November 1996
Lovallo, D.P. and Mendonca, L.T. (interviewers),"Strategy's Strategist: An Interview With Richard Rumelt," McKinsey Quarterly, 2007, 4: pp. 56 to 67
Miller, K.D. and Waller, H.G., "Scenarios, Real Options and Integrated Risk Management,"Long Range Planning, February 2003, 36: pp. 93 to 107
For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.
© 2014 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Recommended Reading: Articles Bishop, P., Hines, A., and Collins, T., "The Current State
of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques," Foresight, 2007, Vol. 9 (No. 1): pp. 5 to 25
Schoemaker, P.J.H., "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking," Sloan Management Review, Winter 1995, 36: pp. 25 to 40
Chermack, T.J., "A Theoretical Model of Scenario Planning," Human Resource Development Review, 2004, 3: pp. 301
Luehrman, T.A., "Strategy as a Portfolio of Real Options," Harvard Business Review, September 1998
For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.
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