Frank Buytendijk: Túl a Digitópián

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Digitalization Is Intensifying

2

Now in 2 years in 5 years

16%

25%

37%

22%

31%

41%

CIO survey (n = 609)

Private SectorWhat % of your revenue is digital?

Now in 2 years in 5 years

42%

60%

77%

CIO survey (n = 344)

Public SectorWhat % of your processes is digital?

"In the future …… all privacyproblemswill be solved."

"In the future …… privacy is gone."


A method for building plausible future scenarios and

determining appropriate responses

What Is Scenario Planning?


Vision ConcernConnected world

• Aligned goals

• All devices connected

Conflicted world

• Zero sum game

• Closed ecosystems

Control

• Deliberate use

• … but privacy?

Freedom

• Innovation

• … but unintended consequences


Conflicted ConnectedC

ontro

lFr

eedo

m

Digitopia"Social

Infrastructure"

Digital BigBusiness

"Society, Inc."

Digital Bazaar"Sorcerer's apprentice"

DigitalWild West"State of Nature"


Battle

Customer

Information = Power

Economy

Digital Big Business(Control, Conflicted)

Alliances

Regulatory pressure

Zero-sum gameHigh loyalty

Low satisfaction

No privacy

Heavy monitoring

Complete data integration

Low/Mediumgrowth

High levels ofautomation


Big DataContinued scandals

Economy

Entrepreneurial

Digital Bazaar(Freedom, Connected)

"Somebody out there is already doing this, they just haven't been caught yet."

Large ecosystem

Endless choice of devices

Many small vendors

Reidentification

Easy access toanalytics

High growth

Randomly distributed


#GartnerSYM

Privacy protection

High computer literacy

Customers votewith their feet

Value of information

Trust your own measures

Big shifts in networks and

businesses

Digital Wild West(Freedom, Conflicted)

Obfuscation, encryption

"Digital protection"

Sousveillance

Based on exclusivity

Rise of antistandards


… but changing social norms

Personal and planet analytics

Collaborative business

Data ownership

Digitopia(Control, Connected)

Monitoring serves the user

(healthcare)

Smart Buildings

Copyright law

Data owned by subject

Permission-based

Global culture vs. local habits

Organizational boundaries blur

Brand value based on user affiliation


Conflicted ConnectedC

ontro

lFr

eedo

m

Digitopia"Social

Infrastructure"

Digital BigBusiness

"Society, Inc."

Digital Bazaar"Sorcerer's apprentice"

DigitalWild West"State of Nature"


Digital Wild West Digital Bazaar

DigitopiaDigital Big Business

Current Situation0




Innovation and Growth1




Value2




Economy of Scale3




Wake Up Call4




New hype5


Strategic… imperatives… options… question marks

18


#GartnerSYM

KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON

Portfolio of Strategies Without a Capital "S"


Keep Calm and Carry On …

• Digital Business• Internet of Things• Cybercrime

• Mass Personalization• … New Technology Adoption


#GartnerSYM

CREATEOPTIONS



Bimodal IT Helps Stage Commitments

Speed 1: Renovate Core• Reliability, Low Cost, Efficient• Vendor Management• System Integrators• Predictability• Long (Months, Years)

Speed 2: Exploit the New • Agility, Innovation• Business Outcome• Specialized Agency• Uncertainty• Short (Days, Weeks)


#GartnerSYM

STOP



Stop the Things That Don't Contribute …

• "Bet the Farm" Choices

• One Stop Shop Strategies

• Totalitarian Standardization


Thoughts to Leave You With

Thinking becomes more important than knowing There are

tipping points Events that

change everything


Recommended Gartner Research: Scenario Planning

Digitopia: Four Scenarios for Digital Business, and What to Do Now

Frank Buytendijk and Jorge Lopez (G00269114) How the CIO Can Influence Enterprise Strategy

Richard Hunter (G00255692) Use

Scenario Planning to Make Business and IT Strategies More Resilient in an Increasingly Volatile WorldAnsgar Schulte and Mary Mesaglio (G00237486)

Scenario-Based Planning: Toolkit Mary Mesaglio and Dave Aron (G00155342)

For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.

http://www.gartner.com/document/2836618?ref=QuickSearch&sthkw=G00269114&refval=141668388



http://www.gartner.com/document/2101216?ref=QuickSearch&sthkw=G00237486






Recommended Gartner Research: Gartner Scenarios Last Call For Datatopia: Boarding NowFrank Buytendijk

(Gartner Free Research) Maverick* Research: Surviving the Rise of

'Smart Machines,' the Loss of 'Dream Jobs' and '90% Unemployment'Kenneth Brant and others (G00253498)

Security and Risk Management ScenarioPlanning, 2020Paul Proctor and others (G00250811)

IT Planning Guidance for Legal Professionals: The Gartner Legal IT 2020 ScenarioFrench Caldwell and others (G00261391)

2012 Strategic Road Map for Business Gets SocialCarol Rozwell (G00227646)

















Recommended Reading: Books "Commitment" (2013)

Olav Maassen and others; Hathaway Publications "Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation" (2005)

Kees van der Heijden; John Wiley & Sons "The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain

World" (1991)Peter Schwartz; Currency Doubleday

"Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning" (1994)Henry Mintzberg; Free Press

"Strategy Safari: A Guided Tour Through the Wilds of Strategic Management" (1998)Henry Mintzberg and others; Free Press

"The Mind of a Fox: Scenario Planning in Action" (2001)Chantell Ilbury and Clem Sunter; Human & Rousseau

"Dealing With Dilemmas: Where Business Analytics Fall Short" (2010)Frank Buytendijk; John Wiley & Sons



Recommed Reading: Articles Drucker, P., "The Theory of the Business,"

Harvard Business Review, September 1994

Porter, M.E., "What Is Strategy?"Harvard Business Review, November 1996

Lovallo, D.P. and Mendonca, L.T. (interviewers),"Strategy's Strategist: An Interview With Richard Rumelt," McKinsey Quarterly, 2007, 4: pp. 56 to 67

Miller, K.D. and Waller, H.G., "Scenarios, Real Options and Integrated Risk Management,"Long Range Planning, February 2003, 36: pp. 93 to 107



Recommended Reading: Articles Bishop, P., Hines, A., and Collins, T., "The Current State

of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques," Foresight, 2007, Vol. 9 (No. 1): pp. 5 to 25

Schoemaker, P.J.H., "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking," Sloan Management Review, Winter 1995, 36: pp. 25 to 40

Chermack, T.J., "A Theoretical Model of Scenario Planning," Human Resource Development Review, 2004, 3: pp. 301

Luehrman, T.A., "Strategy as a Portfolio of Real Options," Harvard Business Review, September 1998


Frank Buytendijk: Túl a Digitópián

Technology

Transcript of Frank Buytendijk: Túl a Digitópián