Prof. Jan Rotmans

Pieter Valkering

Prof. Anne van der Veen

Jörg Krywkow

De MaaswerkenDe Maaswerken

In collaboration with

The case study of the Maaswerken A negotiation model for the Grensmaas project

Introduction

* The Maaswerken project* Our aims and objectives: interlinked IA-ABM model

Conceptual models

* Stakeholder behaviour* Integrated River Model* Stakeholder-environment interaction

Maaswerken Negotiation Model

Conclusions

OUTLINE

General characteristics:

1. River engineering project

2. Initiation in 19973. River length ~150 km4. Budget ~ 0.5 billion EURO

Goals:

1. Flood control2. Improvement of the navigation route3. Nature development4. Gravel extraction

A river management strategy:

- Deepening and broadening- Lowering the flood plains- Creating side channels- Embankments

THE ‘MAASWERKEN’ PROJECTCharacteristics

THE ‘MAASWERKEN’ PLANNING PROCESSA complex problemPolicy maker

(national / provincial level)

Maaswerken

TargetsApproach

Alternatives

Non governmentalStakeholders

Altern

atives

Reactions

Environmental Uncertainties: Different stakeholder perspectives and opinions

Develop a combined Integrated Assessment – Agent Based

Social Simulation Model to:

Construct integrated scenarios taking into account the

influence of stakeholders with multiple interests and

different stakeholder perspectives on uncertainty

Understand better stakeholder perspectives and the

mechanism of perspective changes

Identify river management strategies that are ‘robust’ and

sustainable

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

1. Model of stakeholder behaviour

2. Model of the river environment

3. Concept of stakeholder - environment interaction

WHAT ARE THE INGREDIENTS?

Belief•Uncertainty•..

Preferenced River Management strategy

Agent

STAKEHOLDER AS A COGNITIVE AGENT

Norms

Perception of environment

Perception of stakeholders

Goals •safety•nature

•hindrance•costs

Discharge

Rec_time(Qhigh)

Exc_time(Qregular)

Seasonal discharge

Hydraulics

Stage - discharge

Floods

Recurrence time of floods

Recurrence times of flood damage

Nature

Nature area

Ecosystem distribution

Drought damage (qualitative)

Geographic information

DEM

Land use type

Sediment layers

Costs

Net monetary costs

Hindrance

Gravel extraction amount

Inundation

Inundation durations

Groundwater

Change in GLG, GHG

Load Strategy

Hydraulic schematization

Agriculture

Area of expropriation

Crop depression factors

Average monthly discharges

Yearly discharge peaks

Strategy

CONCEPTUAL INTEGRATED RIVER MODEL

Stakeholder goals

STAKEHOLDER ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION 1

Stakeholders-

Agent Based SocialSimulation Model

River environment-

Integrated River Model

Initial world

Evaluation:acceptance yes/no

Stakeholder expectations Compare to goals

Belief up-dateGoal update

Strategy proposal

Negotiationoperationallevel

STAKEHOLDER ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION 2

ABM

Surprises (floods)New insights

River Management

Strategy

IRM

State change,norm changestrategic level

Implementation of measures

New state of the world

NORMCHANGE

MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 1

What it is:A tool / model that can be used to simulate the Maaswerken negotiation process with stakeholders

Main purpose:Elicitation of stakeholder goals and beliefs as a dynamic process

Input:* River engineering strategy* A formal representation of stakeholder goals and perspectives on uncertainty

Output:* Possible values for decision-making criteria* Stakeholder satisfaction

MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 2Representation of stakeholder goals

Satisfaction level curves

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 100 200 300 400

Recurrence times of floods

SatisfactionSLC - safety

MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 3Representation of stakeholder perspectives on uncertainty

Uncertain model parameters

Climate change scenario: Current, low, middle, high

Morphology: low erosion, high erosion, sand dunes and gravel banks

Fraction high vegetation growth (hydraulic roughness)

Cost parameters:Extraction costs, gravel density, ..

MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 4Impression of results

CONCLUSIONS

•Starting from a descriptive viewpoint, aiming to develop a computer simulation model describing the interacting stakeholder - river system ..

•We developed a negotiation model that allows stakeholder to display their goals and perspectives on uncertainty on the basis of concept of cognitive agents

•Work is still underway of incorporating this knowledge in a formal cognitive agent description with Neg-O-net

•By simulating the Maaswerken negotiation process with stakeholders we will:

•Elicit stakeholder goals and perspectives on uncertainty as a dynamic process•Be able to develop integrated scenarios for river management including possible stakeholder influence in defining river management strategies

•However, drastically different river management strategies result from norm changes at the strategic level and these can not be simulated by investiging negotiation at the operational level only.