Ecunomist, Year 16, Issue 4

Nu bestudeer je de Miljoenennota.Binnenkort schrijf jij eraan mee.

Financiën past op de centen. Dit ministerie is de penning-

meester van het Rijk en dus verantwoordelijk voor

bijvoorbeeld de Miljoenennota. Hier worden de financiële

meevallers verdeeld en oplossingen gezocht voor de

financiële tegenvallers. Op dit ministerie werk je altijd

aan uitdagende projecten met grote maatschappelijke

gevolgen. Ook als starter, want je doet direct mee als

volwaardig teamlid. Dit betekent wel dat wij veel van

jou verwachten. Bij Financiën tel je meteen mee.

Wij bieden je van meet af aan veel ruimte voor eigen

verantwoordelijkheid. Het kan dan ook zomaar gebeuren

dat je direct na je studie begint met het schrijven aan de

Miljoenennota. Dat moet je willen, dat moet je kunnen.

Iets voor jou? Toptalent is van harte welkom. Zeker als

je binnenkort als econoom afstudeert. Kijk voor meer

informatie op www.minfin.nl. Je sollicitatie mail je naar

[email protected] of je belt 070-342 85 32.

Financiën zoekt startende economen

www.werkenbijhetrijk.nl

Content & Colophon

Once a year The Ecunomist is published in acirculation of 2500, combined with theCompany Day brochure. Four times a year TheEcunomist is published in a circulation of 1500for the members, patrons, Æcunomen andexternal contacts of ECU'92.

Published By:Studievereniging ECU'92Janskerkhof 123512 BL UtrechtTel.: 030-253 9680E-mail: [email protected]: www.ecu92.nl

Editor-in-chief:Joëlle Tabak

Final Editing:Christian BurgersRoderick UdoWiebren Tabak

Editors:Silvester BosmaJoris HehenkampIan KoetsierFlorian KrätkeJoël KroodsmaElena MeshcheryakovaJoëlle TabakRoderick Udo

Graphic Design:Joris Hehenkamp

Printed By:Hakker van Rooijen

Special Thanks To:ECU'92 BoardY.S. BrennerKlaas DamstraElias HermansWiebren Tabak

© Study Association ECU'92The copying of articles is permitted providedthat the source is stated.

3The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007

From the Editor-in-Chief 4

From the Chairman 5

Agenda 6

Æcu 7

Neolithic Revolution 9

St. Petersburg Review 10

Famous Economist: Yunus 14

Working at: ICC 16

Beleggen voor dommies 18

Collapse of the House of Stone 20

IAR 22

Photopage: St. Petersburg 23

Get rich without economics 24

The Arms Industry: Moral Issue 26

Vergrijzingsdebat Review 28

Sociale dieren? 29

Turn the Tide: Global Warming 30

Reflections by a Dakosaurus 33

Final Say 34

The Editors f.l.t.r.: Roderick Udo, ElenaMeshcheryakova, Ian Koetsier, Silvester Bosma,Joëlle Tabak, Florian Krátke en JorisHehenkamp. Not on picture: Joël Kroodsma.

other group memberswhich would be

more challengingto them. Theexact oppositefor that matter ofwhat should behappening in a

c o m m i t t e e .Besides that, expe-

rience of several bur-nouts convinced me of

the fact that personal healthshould in all cases be priority number one. I tryto live up to these new guidelines, but that’s farfrom easy. The first part implies risking mista-kes and the second part daring to risk mistakes.

As you no doubt noticed, the latest issue of theEcunomist was less than perfect. As a perfecti-onist I sincerely regret this. But as it also repre-sented the durable investment in a new graphicdesign, editor, printer relationship and the pre-vention of an after-Lustrum burnout I took mychances. Moreover, a far from perfect resultonly motivates to be improved on with the nexteditions. To refer to my earlier motto: “To live acreative life we must loose our fear of beingwrong” can as easily be replaced by “To live alonger and happier life we must loose our fear ofbeing wrong”.

So enjoy this edition and notice the progressbeing made. That’s what makes a good commit-tee :d!

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 20074

And that is a tough job. Because where do youdraw the line between the learning processeswithin a committee, your own health and asatisfying result? All seem equally essential tome. Sometimes I wished I was one of those peo-ple with a more laidback attitude. The freedomto be irresponsible and less demanding ofmyself, in the sure belief that a perfectionistwill always clean up my mess. But, as being aperfectionist is a task for life, I am doomed. Andso I will have always difficulty setting priori-ties.

For a laidback person, health is always numberone (except if this goal conflicts with drinkingalcohol). This is followed by friends and allsorts of fun activities. Somewhere at the bottomlies a satisfying result. With this I mean thebest result you are capable of; not the one youare satisfied with. And while we are on thissubject, those persons who are content tospend as little energy as possible usually sleepnone the worse for it. No wonder they won’tever change the error of their ways. As a fourthyear student, I have often dealt with thesetypes. It should therefore come as no surprisethat the mere mention of the word ‘group work’is enough to cause me headaches.

As an editor-in-chief, my perfectionism stillchallenges me, albeit on a different level. Duringall the group projects I participated in as a stu-dent, I never paid attention to the learning pro-cesses of others. Why should I? The mostimportant thing was to pass the subject; noroom for making mistakes or allocating tasks to

Joëlle Tabak - As a perfectionist you find yourself constantly trapped between arock and a hard place, as the English so aptly put it. The only way to realizeyou are the sole one bothered by it is to smash into either one of them. Forinstance, perfectionism may saddle you with a burnout by pushing yourselftoo hard. But when you try to loosen up, you get a burnout as well becauseall of the stress it creates to fix the problems caused by you letting your hairdown. As editor-in-chief my task is to find the right balance between the twoextremes. Every edition again.

Between a rock and a hard place

From the editor-in-chief

The Ecunomist - Annual Volume 16, Edition 4 - June 2007 5

debate was discussed. Stef Blok (VVD), FerdCrone (PvdA) and Sweder van Wijnbergen(Netspar) gave their opinion in a distinct andclarifying way. It was fantastic that our debateeven generated attention from the nationalmedia; Radio 1 conducted a live interview withour discussion leader Thijs Knaap.

The study trip to St. Petersburg turned out tobe a great success. When I heard the storiesfrom the participants, it is a pity that I couldnot join them on this trip. You can read moreabout the study trip in this Ecunomist!

I would like to end my contribution by pointingout some of our up-coming activities. OnThursday 31 May, the annual ECU’92 conferen-ce will take place. This year’s theme is the‘Future of Europe’s Currency’. During this day,there are interesting lectures, workshops and adebate. Prof. Mr. Dr. F. Bolkestein and Dr.A.H.E.M. Wellink (DNB) will both give a lectu-re. So, the conference is definitely an event youshould not miss out on.

On June 7th, Sixpack, the largest student’sparty in Utrecht, is going to take place. Finally, I would like to mention an activity that is onlyopen to our active members; the active mem-bers day! During this day, we would like tothank our active members for this year’s effortsfor ECU’92. What we are going to do is still asecret, but you should not miss it. So, if you arean active member, please make a reservation inyour agenda for 18 June!

When I have to give an overview of the activi-ties going on at the ECU rooms, I can best des-cribe it as a small and structured chaos. Withmany committees at work, including the confe-rence committee and the lustrum committee,there was never any silence. After the lustrum,there were some moments of relative quietness.The ECU board went to Val Thorens for theirwon and deserved ten days of holiday.Fortunately, we are still alive and have not bro-ken any of our bones. This does not mean thateverything went perfect. My fellow board mem-bers referred to a particular slope as the‘Antoine hill’, because I more often tumbledthan actually skied down. But I am not the onlyboard member with nice stories about thingsthat went wrong during the ski trip. Ask Coos,Silvester or Selma about their lovely experien-ces in France…

After our return to Utrecht, we had two weeksof calmness because of the exams and resits. Itdid not take long for the usual busyness to startagain. In the week before the study trip, theconference committee had their deadline for thepromotion material, the study trip committeedealt with the final details before departure andthe Discussion and Lecture Committee (DLC)was busy organizing the ageing debate. A won-derful time at the ECU rooms. It is always sti-mulating to see so much passion from our acti-ve members and my fellow board members.

It is even better to see that our efforts pay off.The DLC organized a fascinating debate, wherethe position of the youngsters in the ageing

Antoine Burgers - Time flies. This is already my 4th ‘from the chairman’ in theEcunomist. It is May, the weather is improving and the holidays are near. Thismeans that I discuss on life at the board rooms of ECU’92, reflect on someof our past activities and comment on the final activities we will organize inthis academic year.

Time flies!

From the chairman


Luuk Leussink, Coordinator Internal Affairs ([email protected]).Visit our site (www.ecu92.nl) for more information about the agenda and theactivities.

Agenda and Association news

Agenda

21st of MayRag week Soccer Tournament

“Kick some ass at Vredenburg!”www.ragweek.nl

31st of May Conference

‘The future of Europe’s currency’“Speakers: Frits Bolkestein, Nout Wellink

and Lex Hoogduin!”

4th of JuneB.O.M.B.

“Blasting at the Steeg!”

7th of JuneSixpack

“At Olympos!”

13th of JuneGeneral Meeting“Presenting: the new

Board!!” 14th of JuneREBO – party

“Summer Edition!”

18th of JuneActive members day

“Presents!”

3rd of September till 8th of SeptemberThe Introduction

“No introduction needed. Become coach [email protected]!”

Date

which means that all alumni who graduated ineconomics or the earlier disciplines are welco-me.

As you might have heard, we are still workingon the cooperation between our Æcu com-mittee and the alumni foundation of the USE.

These evenings are a second step in the direc-tion of one alumni foundation for all economicsstudents. We will still have to see what thefuture will bring. As always, we will inform youa.s.a.p. about future developments.

I would also like to remind you of the opportu-nity to become an Æcunoom yourself. If you arealmost graduated and want to keep receivingthe Ecunomist and the Æcu newsletter, you cansubscribe. This way, you will stay in touch withECU’92 and your former studies. If you sign upas an Æcunoom you pay an amount of €10,- ayear. If you choose to become an ÆCUnoom ofECU’92, you can send an e-mail to [email protected].

Finally, I would like to thank everyone whoalready subscribed as an ÆCUnoom!! It is niceto know so many people are still involved in ourassociation.

Kind Regards,

Malou van den Bergh.t. Secretary of the Board

The final newsletter ofthis year will come toyou in August. Thatwill be my and thecommittee’s lastletter of this year.We are makinggreat efforts tomake the last one asgood as, and maybeeven better than, the pre-vious ones.

The next activity for our alumni is the alumnievening on Friday the 25th of May, which willbe held in the canteen at Janskerkhof 12(Utrecht) and start around 8PM. Should theweather allow it, we may even have it in thebeautiful garden of the building. Besides somenice snacks and drinks, there will be an inte-resting lecture by one of the USE staff memberson a current theme. The evening combines sub-stance with relaxation. We hope this will beco-me a continuous event from now on. Rememberthat the other dates for the alumni evenings are:August 31, 2007, November 30, 2007 andFebruary 29, 2008.Same time, same place. We will also havedrinks, snacks and different speakers on vari-ous subjects each time. Please invite everyalumni you know to these evenings, so it will bea successful activity! This activity is held in coo-peration with the Utrecht School of Economics,

Malou van den Berg - With the lustrum already far behind us, it seems that theyear is going faster and faster. The end of this academic year is alreadycoming into sight. The Æcu committee looks back on their successfullustrum activities and two newsletters. We have also been working on ournew alumni newsletter. With this article you will find some pictures of thecabaret and the dinner with the old board members that took place duringthe lustrum. As I promised in the last edition of the Ecunomist, you wouldreceive two more issues of the alumni newsletter. One of them is enclosed inthe envelope of this Ecunomist. I hope you will enjoy it. You will find a reportof the lustrum alumni activities in it as well as an interview with anotheralumni, some new USE news and more.

Dear Æcunomen,

Æcu


Buying your books with ECU’92 and NewBricks IS the cheapest way!! Don’t believe it? Come check it out and compare at the booksale!

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Article

constant returns. Now let's assume that homoeconomicus's utility decreases with the size ofthe social group: more people means highertransaction costs in distribution of production.

A shift from the first to the second mode occurswhen the returns on the margin to hunting fallsignificantly. The man-made extinction of thewoolly mammoth qualifies. This explains theadvent of the neolithic revolution. But accor-

ding to the popular view the transitionbrought with it a division of labour. In

our model the social unit would getsmaller instead of larger: if huntingis just as productive but requiresmore people, homo economicuswould prefer agriculture withless people.

Contrary to popular belief, thismight be what happened. Several

years ago archaeologists found atÇatalhöyük (Turkey) the remains of

2000 dwellings, aggregated as a modern townbut with no sign of public infrastructure or anydivision of labour . Just self-sustained unitswith no evidence of civilization what so ever.Homo economicus as basic model for humanbehaviour: not so far-fetched as you mightthink.

Combined evidence from cultural anthropologyand classical economics dispute this view.Today's pre-neolithic (are you still with me?)peoples – such as Kung San in the Kalahari –enjoy a varied diet of meat, nuts, berries androots and work about twenty hours a week.Primitive agriculture meant tolling for sixtyhours a week and having a unvaried diet of poornutritional value. So what rationally self-cent-red individual would prefer the leisure of thehunter-gatherer state over the hard life ofthe agriculturalist? None I would say,this being the reason why tribes likethe Kung San act perfectly rationalby staying in the 'uncivilized'state that they are in.

Why did the transition eventual-ly take place? Imagine this verysimple model with very reasona-ble assumptions: the homo econ-omicus maximises his own utility, afunction of Food and Labour. Marginalutilities are respectively positive and negati-ve. Food is produced either by hunting or far-ming, with Labour being the only input. Thefirst mode of production has increasing returnsto scale – by yourself it is virtually impossible tohunt big game (unless if you are the proudowner of a post-neolithic uzi) – agriculture has

Joël Kroodsma - When I proposed Homo econ-omicus and the neolithic revolution to my edi-tor she proclaimed 'Neolithic revolution?What's that?!'. 'Silly girl' I thought, since every-body knows that 'neo' (meaning new) 'lithic'(meaning stone) 'revolution' (meaning suddenand dramatic change) refers to the prehistorictransition from a hunter-gatherer to a agricul-tural society. This transition being the mostimportant development in the (pre)history of

mankind. Agriculture created the surplus food to support a division of labourand the necessity for private property(rights), in short the defining aspects ofcivilization. Or so the popular vision goes.

The Neolithic Revolution Homo Economicus as Basic Model for Human Behaviour

ber of churches – which can be found on manystreets of St. Petersburg city-centre and its out-skirts. Now I know why religion never diedduring the 70 years of Communist’s power. Asoul that sees the beauty of work done in thename of God will never die.

City-lifeThe amount of McDonald’s, Coffeehouses, andHotels with fancy names on the streets of St.Petersburg makes your eyes run in differentdirections. Everywhere I saw trade, from carsand fur-coats to Sunny tours and pre-paidmobile cards. I am happy and I am glad formaking this trip, because a journey into the citybegins with the first visit.


The moment we drove into the Petersburg’s ter-ritory, we noticed that every square inch of it isfull of history dating from 300 years till thesedays. The monuments constructed in the nameof war victory, the buildings of the Stalin era,the commercial shops occupying first floors ofthose of the houses. The streets of St.Petersburg are also a part of history and gran-deur of this city – they are wide and endless.

City- museumMy fist emotion inside the city is connected tothe amalgamation of noble times with commu-nist’s times. The preservation of monuments,palaces and churches by the revolutionists of1918 and the work of architects thereafter, madeSaint-Petersburg one whole ‘planet’. In my opi-nion, the revolutionist style was nostalgia forthe tsar era buildings, though they could neveradmit it in public. After visiting two of the mostbeautiful museums and having seen an astonis-hing collection of art and craft, I can say withcertainty that The Hermitage and RussianMuseum will always stay in my heart as placesof incredible cultural richness. Another pointthat convinced me of the existence of a neverdying Russian culture and tradition is the num-

Elena Meshcheryakova -The first, but definitely not the last visit to Saint-Petersburg, was one of the most amazing experiences in my life so far.Possessing a great know-how in traveling and engaging in several culturesand traditions, I forgot how great and rich MY culture is. In fact, I have for-gotten most of what it consists of; including its lessons in history and the abi-lity to change and adjust while standing ‘Great’.

City - museum, city - life!

Review: St. Petersburg

Is de witte tekst in de foto wel goed leesbaar?



The Russian culture is one you have to get usedto. A noisy western tourist, who takes picturesat every corner in the weirdest positions, is notsomething that Russians understand. TheRussian culture is about being proud of yourcountry and history. That is why every Russiancan tell you about the Tsars and the founding ofSt. Petersburg. But Russian culture is alsoabout the military, of which we saw a goodexample in a military parade of 500 soldiers infront of the Hermitage. Russian culture is alsoon the road: where we in Holland have Spyker,Russia has Lada’s: lots of them.

MuseumsIn St. Petersburg you can find the museum withthe biggest art collection of the world: theHermitage. The Hermitage is the old winter-palace of the Russian tsars and is art an sich.The Hermitage consists of five buildings withmagnificent rooms. Each of these rooms is filled

Silvester Bosma – The last couple ofyears ECU’92 visited South-Africa,Milan, Istanbul and Budapest. In2007 the study trip went to a wholenew world: St. Petersburg. The‘Venice of the north’ is the secondlargest city in Russia and was itscapital for years. St. Petersburg wasbuild by Tsar Peter I, also known asTsar Peter the Great, who was inspi-red by the Netherlands, Amsterdamand the canals. Russians are veryproud of their culture and historyand that is something that TsarPeter the Great wanted to show inSt. Petersburg. St. Petersburg has itall: culture, museums, churches,western influences and Russians. Forthe participants the task to explorethis perfect mix of Russia.

Study trip St. Petersburg The perfect mix of Russia

Orthodox Church that can’t be missed. Theoutside is impressive because of the colourful socalled ‘onion’ domes. The inside contains over7500 square metres of mosaic. All the walls andceilings are completely covered in detailedmosaics, the main pictures being biblical scenesor figures.

Western influencesAfter the fall of communism, the Russian eco-nomic growth exploded and the western influ-


with all kind of arts from all over the world col-lected and bought by the Tsars to show it to theworld. But there is more: the Russian museumholds a collection of Russian art of the last 200years. And then I don’t mean the old ladies whoare sitting in every room to watch after thepaintings (call it a ‘Melkert-baan’). The Palaceof Petrodvorets or Peter’s Palace is situated inthe suburbs of St. Petersburg and is all aboutthe park: innumerable fountains (which whereunfortunately turned off during our visit),beautiful cascades, gold and marble statues ofgods and heroes and exuberant decoration fromas well the inside as the outside.

ChurchesIn St. Petersburg you can find a lot of churcheswhich are worth visiting, two of them in partic-ular. The St. Isaacs Cathedral is a RussianOrthodox Church and can be recognized by agigantic golden dome. From the outside you canclimb it and have a panoramic view of the citywhich is restricted to a maximum height limitto which all buildings must obey. From theinside the church is characterized by the pic-tures on the wall, massive granite columns, andunfortunately too much souvenir stands. Thechurch of the savior on blood is the second



ences did their entrance. A visit to thetea-factory of Unilever learned usabout the modern techniques and effi-ciency that are used in productionprocesses nowadays, whereas a visit toDeloitte showed us that there is moreneed for financial control because ofthe enormous economic growth. Onthe street the western influence isexpressed in rich Russians who aredressed to impress with huge sunglass-es and fuzzy coats, the numerous fast-food chains (Russian pancakes are amust) and tourist shops. But still thattypically Russian atmosphere hasremained, and that is what makes visit-ing St. Petersburg worthwhile: St.Petersburg is all about the perfect mixof Russia.

Top: Maria alter inside Savior on Blood ChurchLeft: Aurora; started russian revolutionBottom: Visiting Unilever’s Teafactory in St.Petersburg


new institutions and policies. Far too littleattention has been paid to the subject of pover-ty, according to Yunus.

The Grameen (meaning: rural area, village)Bank, one of these new institutions, has issuedmore than US$ 6 billion to 7 million borrowers.To ensure repayment, the bank uses a system of"solidarity groups". These small informal groupsapply together for loans and its members act asco-guarantors of repayment and support oneanother's efforts at economic self-advancement.As it has grown, the Grameen Bank has alsodeveloped other systems of alternate credit thatserve the poor. In addition to micro-credit, itoffers education loans and housing loans as wellas financing for fisheries and irrigation projects,venture capital, textiles, and other activities,along with other banking services such assavings. The Bank even started Village Phone:people can lease/ buy a cellular phone at a lowprice and provide modern age IT services totheir village. More than 200 000 ‘Phone Ladies’(mainly women enter this market) exist today,and their ‘turnover’ exceeds 2 billion dollars.

Back to the system of micro-credit. An inte-resting aspect of this system is that it does notdiscriminate and thereby offers women – whoare in many parts of the world still struggling toearn an equal part in society – the chance toshow their capacities and prove they can be ofgreat help to the social and economical deve-lopment of a country. Over 90 percent of theusers of micro-credit are in fact women. Again


This new system tries to stimulate economicand social development from below by lendingsmall amounts of money (usually less than$300) to people without asking for high inte-rests or collateral, but instead building onmutual trust, accountability, participation andcreativity. The concept seems to work. Morethan half of Grameen borrowers in Bangladesh(close to 50 million) have risen out of acutepoverty thanks to their loan. This is measuredby such standards as having all children ofschool age in school, all household memberseating three meals a day, a sanitary toilet, a rain-proof house, clean drinking water and the abili-ty to repay a 300 taka-a-week ($8) loan. And,since its inception, there has been an astonis-hing loan repayment rate of over 98 percent.

The success of micro-credit shows that eventhe poorest of the poor can earn money throughworking and are not dependent upon charity.As Yunus himself put it: "these millions of smallpeople with their millions of small pursuits canadd up to create the biggest development won-der." He believes poverty is created by institu-tions and policies, not by the poor, and thusshould be battled by changing and/ or creating

Joris Hehenkamp - In 2006 the Bangladeshi economist Mohammed Yunus andthe Grameen Bank, which he founded, were awarded the Nobel Peace Price.They received this precious price for the initiation of a new credit system:micro-credit. From the Nobel Peace Price website: “Lasting peace cannot beachieved unless large population groups find ways in which to break out ofpoverty. Micro-credit is one such means. Development from below also ser-ves to advance democracy and human rights.”

Mohammed Yunus: micro-credit

Famous Ecunomist


from the Nobel website: “Economic growth andpolitical democracy can not achieve their fullpotential unless the female half of humanityparticipates on an equal footing with the male.”

Sprung in Bangladesh, the system of micro-cre-dit quickly conquered the world. Over 50 coun-tries - from the U.S. to Papua New Guinea,Norway to Nepal – have introduced it. Yunushas received over 100 awards, honorary degreesand special honors from countries and organi-zations all over the world. His Grameen Bankhas also been awarded near 20 awards. For anoverview, check http://www.grameen-info.org/bank/Listofawards.html.

The enormous increase in the demand for andsupply of Fair Tradeproducts, such asMax Havelaar cof-fee, has been inter-preted by some as aglobal shift inpublic preferencesfrom donatingmoney to charitytowards allowingpoor locals in SouthAmerica, Africa orAsia to earn an inco-me by producingand selling. Yunusstimulates thisshift. He thinks

charity creates dependence and takes awayindividual’s initiative to break through the wallof poverty. Unleashing of energy and creativityin each human being is, according to Yunus, theanswer to poverty.

With the system of micro-credit, Yunus hashelped the world advance towards the ultimatebut fragile equilibrium, that of world peace.This is his long term goal. To end this articlewith room for discussion among economists,here follows a last cite from Yunus. “The mostimportant step to end poverty is to createemployment and income opportunity for thepoor. But orthodox economics recognized only

wage-employment. It has no room for self-employment. But self-employment is the quic-kest and easiest way to create employment forthe poor. I have been arguing that credit shouldbe accepted as a human right, because it is soimportant for a person who is looking for anincome.”

Famous Ecunomist

Dutch princess Maxima isinvolved in Micro-credit

Where does the money actually go?

Female top 10:1 Grocery Shop2 Milch Cow3 Village Phone4 Cow Fattening5 Rice/ Paddy Trading6 Other Business7 Cloths Trading8 Stationery Shop9 Bamboo Works10 Paddy Husking

Male top 10:1 Grocery Shop2 Milch Cow3 Rice/ Paddy Trading4 Stationery Shop 5 Land Lease6 Cloths Trading7 Vegetables Trading8 Cow Fattening9 Paddy Husking10 Timber Trading

Micro accounting

voorziening door Reuters, Bloomberg,financiële kranten en tijdschriften.

Wekelijks publiceert ICC over devooruitzichten van de wereldecono-mie en wat er op basis daarvan voorde rentestanden en valutakoersen

verwacht kan worden. Van Ginkel:“Wereldwijd hebben we hiermee een

groot klantenbestand opgebouwd, waar-onder veel Fortune 500 bedrijven, commerci-

ële banken, centrale banken en grote interna-tionale vermogensbeheerders.”

Deze rapporten worden wekelijks uitgegeven,dus gelden er strakke deadlines. Wat moet erprecies voor zo’n deadline gebeuren? Hoijtink:“Ik kom binnen en begin met het verzamelenvan gegevens van het internet, van nieuwsdien-sten als Bloomberg en Reuters. Daarna spit ikkranten en research door.” Spek: “Omdat deAmerikaanse markten laat Nederlandse tijdsluiten, ben je vooral in de ochtend bezig te ana-lyseren wat zich op die markten heeft afge-speeld.” Van Ginkel: “Daarna is er overleg overde inhoud van de rapporten en wordt bepaaldwie welk deel daarvan op zich neemt. Alsiemand een stuk heeft uitgewerkt, gaat ditmeteen richting de vertaalafdeling, waar het inhet Spaans, Engels en Duits wordt vertaald.

Naast het publiceren van rapporten gebruiktook de consultancytak van ICC, die er pas lateris bijgekomen, de ICC huisvisie om deze te ver-


Van Ginkel, Hoijtink en Spek makenallen onderdeel uit van het researchteam van ICC. Niet wetende dat ereen dergelijke afdeling binnen ICCbestaat, wil de redactie hier natuur-lijk het fijne van weten. Van Ginkellegt daarom uit hoe het bedrijf isontstaan: “Onze directeur-eigenaarkwam uit het vermogensbeheer enonderhield daarvoor goede contacten metbanken en economen. Hij was dagelijks bezigmet het volgen van de financiële markten enwilde zijn ervaring en gedrevenheid aanwendenom anderen te adviseren. In 1979 richtte hij ICCop, dat ondernemingen voornamelijk op hetgebied van rente en valuta advies geeft. De ont-wikkeling van een visie op de financiële mark-ten vormt nog steeds de kern van ICC.”

De researchAls onderdeel van het research team dragen VanGinkel, Hoijtink en Spek bij aan deze ICC visieop de internationale financiële markten. Zijdoen dit met behulp van een combinatie vanfundamenteel-economische en charttechnischeanalyse. Het team verricht zelf geen primaireconomisch onderzoek, maar baseert haar visieop internationale topresearch, zoals de publica-ties van centrale banken als de Fed en de ECB,grote commerciële banken als Goldman Sachsen Morgan Stanley, research huizen, brokers eninternationale organisaties als de OECD en hetIMF. Dit wordt gecombineerd met de nieuws-

Joëlle Tabak en Roderick Udo - Op een prachtig gelegen locatie in het sfeervollecentrum van Utrecht, wordt de redactie van de Ecunomist verwelkomd doorMaarten Spek, trainee analyst bij Interest & Currency Consultants (ICC).Helaas kan Spek ons alleen een glas water aanbieden, aangezien het koffie-apparaat het heeft begeven. Kort hierop volgt de kennismaking met AnnekeHoijtink (eveneens trainee analyst) en Sander van Ginkel (managing analyst).Als dan blijkt dat het koffieapparaat toch nieuw leven is ingeblazen, kan ermet hernieuwde energie aan het interview worden begonnen.

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talen naar een strategie die specifiek op de klantgericht is. Spek: “Met de consultants vindtwekelijks een marktbespreking plaats. Wij ver-tellen de consultants wat ze moeten weten ensoms koppelen zij ervaringen terug naar ons.”Van Ginkel: “Vaak krijgt de consultant de vraagof ons beeld van de ontwikkelingen in de finan-ciële markten nog klopt. De financiële marktenzijn iedere dag in beweging en daarom is ersprake van een constante interactie tussen onsen de consultancy-afdeling.”

Het belang van een onafhankelijke huisvisieUit deze terugkoppeling blijkt ook het belangvan de huisvisie van het ICC research team bijhet ontwikkelen van een klantgerichte strate-gie. Van Ginkel: “De kern van onze werkwijze isde combinatie ‘visie en techniek’. Met onzemarktvisie en derivatenkennis worden onzeklanten ondersteund in het formuleren van hunhedging- c.q. beleggingsstrategie”. Daarnaast isde visie van ICC volledig onafhankelijk, waar-mee het zich onderscheidt van adviezen vanbanken die vaak gericht zijn op de productendie ze willen verkopen. Van Ginkel: “Datis voor onszelf overigens ook erg pret-tig werken, omdat je dan volledigobjectief tot je marktvoorspellingenkunt komen”.

Utrechtse economiestudentHoe kom je bij ICC terecht en watmoet je ervoor kunnen? We vroegenhet aan de analisten. Managing analystVan Ginkel studeerde internationale economiein Utrecht, een van de opleidingen die nu zijnopgenomen in de Utrecht School of Economics.Als lid van beleggingsvereniging BvvK ontwik-kelde hij tijdens zijn studie al affiniteit metinternationale financiële markten. Van Ginkelbegon zeven jaar geleden met een studenten-baantje bij ICC en door zijn interesses werd hijal snel binnen het bedrijf betrokken bij meerinhoudelijke werkzaamheden. Ook Spek enHoijtink volgden beiden een universitaire oplei-ding Internationale Economie, respectievelijkin Rotterdam en Tilburg. Ze solliciteerden opeen vacature bij ICC en werden na enkele

gesprekken, een analytische test en een schrijf-test aangenomen. Van Ginkel benadrukt dat jemet elke economische opleiding als analist voorICC aan de slag kan, omdat ‘hier geen opleidingvoor bestaat en je de benodigde analytischevaardigheden ontwikkelt door interne trainingen ervaring”. De twee trainee analisten bevesti-gen dit: hun studie heeft hen een goed beeldgegeven van hoe de wereldeconomie in elkaarzit en de theorie is een nuttige basis, maar zehebben het meeste geleerd door mee te draaienin het research team.

Eigen mening“Het is als je bij ICC komt werken vooralbelangrijk dat je interesse hebt in de financiëlemarkten en dat je een eigen mening over zakendurft te vormen”, aldus Van Ginkel. De intervie-wer knikt begrijpend en wordt er gekscherendop gewezen dat dit dus in een teamoverleg bijICC niet de bedoeling is. Het bedrijf onder-scheidt zich dan ook niet voor niets met eeneigen huisvisie op de financiële markten. Dedrie geïnterviewde analisten hebben het primanaar hun zin bij ICC. De bedrijfssfeer is infor-

meel, het is een club veelal jonge mensen endoor de vele buitenlandse werknemers,

werk je in een internationale omgeving.Van Ginkel is ook blij met de locatievan het kantoor van ICC, in de LangeViestraat in het centrum van Utrecht.“Er is niet altijd tijd voor, maar het is

heel prettig om te gaan lunchen aan deOudegracht of even de stad in te lopen”.

Ook de borrels op vrijdagmiddag, in een caféin het stadscentrum, tonen de goede sfeer bijICC en de wortels in het centrum van Utrecht.

Wil je meer weten over werken bij ICC? Neemdan contact op met Kim van Delft. Voor diege-nen met een passende CV en toonbare interessein financiële markten zijn er mogelijkhedenvoor (bij)banen bij het rente en valuta consul-tancy bedrijf in hartje Utrecht.

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Soorten aandelenHet zal geen verbazing wekken dat er verschil-lende soorten aandelen zijn. Er zijn natuurlijkde aandelen die zijn genoteerd op de Midkap,AEX en Alternext, de ‘normale’ aandelen. Erzijn ook incourante aandelen, de meeste aande-len van het betreffende fonds zijn dan in handenvan een kleine groep mensen. Ook staan dezeaandelen vaak op naam. Verder is er een catego-rie aandelen niet-officieel genoteerd. Dit zijnaandelen van fondsen die een noteringsmaatre-gel hebben. Wat de oorzaak hiervan is, looptuiteen, het kan bijvoorbeeld faillissement zijnmaar ook iets totaal anders. Bij een faillissementkan er dan gegokt worden op het overblijvenvan geld na het afbetalen van de schulden. Eenandere categorie is een categorie aandelen dienog niet eens officieel bestaat namelijk de grijzeeffecten, dit zijn effecten die waarschijnlijk eennotering krijgen waarin al gehandeld wordtvoordat ze deze hebben. Bij de grijze handel ishet zo dat als de notering toch niet plaatsvindtde verkoop als niet gedaan wordt beschouwd.Dan zijn er ook nog certificaten: dit zijn aande-len zonder stemrecht op de aandeelhoudersver-gadering. Bij een royeerbaar certificaat kan dezeworden omgewisseld voor een aandeel metstemrecht. Bij een niet-royeerbaar certificaatkan dit niet. Het maakt voor het bezoeken vaneen aandeelhoudersvergadering niet uit of jeeen certificaat bezit of een aandeel. Echter, alsje het leuk vindt om mee te stemmen dan moetje wel het ‘normale’ aandeel hebben.

Een aandeelHet meest in het oogspringende gegeven vaneen aandeel is uiteraard de koers. De koers is de


Er zijn legio mogelijkheden om in te beleggen,in dit artikel zal het echter gaan over beleggenin aandelen. Elke dag staat er wel iets in dekrant over het verloop van de aandelenbeurzen.De laatste tijd zitten deze weer aardig in de lift.Het zal bij sommige ongetwijfeld de interessehebben gewekt om het beleggen in aandeleneen keer te proberen.

De beursAandelen worden verhandeld op verschillendebeurzen in Nederland, de bekendste zijn deMidkap en de AEX in beide zijn (ongeveer) 25bedrijven vertegenwoordigd. De samenstellingvan de AEX wordt gemaakt op basis van omzetvan aandelen. Tevens staan er vijf fondsen op dereservelijst in het geval van fusies of een beurs-exit. Verschillende fondsen hebben ook een ver-schillende weging, deze wordt gebaseerd op debeurswaarde van het bedrijf. De meest verhan-delde fondsen op de Midkap kunnen ‘promove-ren’ naar de AEX en de minst verhandelde AEXfondsen ‘degraderen’ naar de Midkap, in febru-ari wordt er duidelijk welke bedrijven aan AEXgenoteerd zijn en blijven en welke aan deMidkap genoteerd zijn en blijven. Een minderbekende beurs is Alternext. Alternext richtzich door minder ingewikkelde en dus minderkostende regelgeving op de kleinere bedrijvendie kapitaal willen ophalen op de beurs. Vaakzijn dit nieuwe bedrijven op de beurs, zij heb-ben vaak een hoog groeipotentieel maar het risi-coprofiel is vaak ook hoger doordat over dezekleinere bedrijven minder bekend is.

Ian Koetsier – Bakken met geld wor-den er elke dag gewonnen en verlo-ren met beleggen. Maar wat moet jenou eigenlijk echt weten als studentom een vet ‘belegde’ boterham hier-aan over te houden?

voor dommies

Analysis


prijs die voor het aandeel wordt betaald maargeeft ook een indicatie wat de beleggers van hetaandeel in kwestie vinden. Verder is eenbelangrijk gegeven het dividend. Het rende-ment van een aandeel kan worden opgedeeld intwee delen namelijk de koerswinst en het ont-vangen dividend. De hoogte van het dividendwordt vastgesteld op de aandeelhoudersverga-dering. Let er wel op dat je geen dividend meerontvangt over een jaar na de ex-dividenddatum.Als een fonds ex-dividend gaat daalt de koersover het algemeen met het bedrag van het aan-gekondigde dividend. Ook kan er sprake zijnvan een gebroken boekjaar waarbij een interim-en slotdividend wordt uitgekeerd. Het dividendkan komen in verschillende vormen: stockdivi-dend, cashdividend en keuzedividend. De laat-ste geeft de keuze tussen de eerste twee.

De handelWelke aandelen het goed gaan doen blijft altijdde vraag. De beleggingsadviezenrapporten vande grotere financiële dienstverleners geven eenbeeld van de huidige en toekomstige prestatiesvan een aandeel. Er wordt duidelijk welke aan-delen ondergewaardeerd zijn en wat het koers-doel van het aandeel is over een bepaalde perio-de. Ze geven een sell, buy or hold advies, vaakgaat van deze adviezen van gerenommeerde

i n s t e l l i n g e neen zekere selffulfilling pro-phecy uit.Welke aande-len je bij elkaarneemt hangt afvan het risicoje wilt lopen.Als je eengoede, gevari-eerde mix vana a n d e l e nneemt heb jealleen temaken met het

marktrisico, het marktrisico wordt weergege-ven aan de hand van bèta. Dit is een getal dataangeeft of de beweging van het aandeel groterof kleiner is dan de marktuitslag, boven de 1 is

Top left: Caution: falling interest ratesTop right: Sleepless nights worrying about tradeBottom left: Do not give the bear insider tipsBottom right: Investor’s jumping spot

deze meer. Dit is een agressief aandeel. Benedende 1 is dit minder: een defensief aandeel. Meteen gespreid portfolio kan je het risico verklei-nen. Maar of al die moeite nodig is om een goedportfolio vast te stellen is moeilijk te zeggen.Uit onderzoek is namelijk gebleken dat het ren-dement van het zogenaamde ‘stockpicking’ vrij-wel nul is. Een andere methode voor het vast-stellen van een portfolio is misschien leuker enlevert ongeveer een gelijk rendement. Het gaathier om het ‘dartbordportfolio’, iedereen kan ditsamenstellen. Neem een dartbord, prik hetbeurskatern van de krant erop en gooi je pijlen.De fondsen die je raakt koop je. Mocht je beleg-gingsavontuur dan toch geen schot in de rooszijn, heb je er in ieder geval nog een leuke avonden een dartbord aan overgehouden.

Analysis

hed the white minority to give some politicalrights to the black majority. They took thechance, and suddenly former warlord RobertMugabe was in the driving seat of what wasthen called Zimbabwe, after an election astrustworthy as in every country stressingwords like 'democratic' of 'people's republic' intheir country names. New problems like cor-ruption and signs of a dictatorial repressingregime arose quickly.

Appraisal of the houseA direct occasion of the new resistance in thelate 1990s, led by labour unions, was the econ-omic crisis the country was getting into. Theeconomy proved to be the sputtering motor of

the country.Next to decli-ning harvests,Zimbabwe hada major pro-blem of decli-ning purcha-sing powercaused byhyperinflation.Add up one-third of thep o p u l a t i o nwith HIV and

you have your recipe for disaster. To keep thepeople quiet, the government sought a group toblame for all problems. The search was shortand easy: the white farmers took the good har-vests, and their lands had to be taken andredistributed among the poor black farmerswithout land. One simple rule was ignored:


Seeing the state ofdismay the coun-try is in, one startsto wonder whathas gone wrong.An unsuccessfulhunt for materialsfirst brought theBritish to thecountry. Theycame, saw andconquered and

renamed the country Rhodesia after their leaderRhodes. Most British expatriates settled onlarge agricultural firms. Over the years ofBritish rul,e the civilized world brought themnot only submission, but also education, infra-structure and the basic structure of politics andlaw, yet in extremely small proportions. TheBritish Empire was not that interested in thecountry with only marginal mining discoveries,and left the governing to Rhodes and his com-pany. This was officially established in 1923,when the country became a separate Britishcolony. The ruling white minority felt the needfor more independence and in 1965 they decla-red their independence without speaking to theQueen, as many of their neighbours did before.

The first scrapsFrom the moment of independence, the firstbricks in the house of stone started to fall. Theonce stable and quiet country was punished byeconomic sanctions, and punished itself bystarting a civil war between the two majorinhabiting tribes. Tactics of war worked atleast a little, considering that it effectively pus-

Klaas Damstra - Imagine a country rich of natural resources. Next to fossilfuels like coal and agricultural products like cotton, the country has immenseresources of copper, gold and platinum. There are young people and a notunfavourable climate. Imagine the range of chances such a country mighthave - and compare it to the total state of hopelessness it is in. Welcome toZimbabwe, which means in their own language 'the house of stone', after amysterious castle from a once glorious history.

The collapse of the house of stone

Analysis


agriculture is not only nature, but it is alsotechnique and how to manage it. Finally, thetotal harvest was worse every year, and pro-blems worsened too. What does this mean?Examples include an unemployment rate ofalmost 80%, while 60% is living under minimalstandards with inflation reaching a peak of1200% in 2005. This asked for draconic measu-res, so 'operation Taguta', ironically meaning'hunger is stilled' was launched. By 2006 eventhe soldiers were suffering of hunger, and thisshield of power ought to stay on governmentalside. Since an angry soldier is more dangerousthen an angry farmer, the land was redistribu-ted again, but now to farming soldiers. Sincesoldiers are trained to fight and not to growgovernment-determined crops, this was ano-ther complete wall of the house of stone tumb-ling down. The resulting crisis the country issomething most people in developed countriesare not aware of and could not even imagine.Almost all foreign investors in the country haveran away. Enemy-like conditions, unfavourablelaws and an unpredictable and worthless cur-rency makes trading in the country utterlyunattractive.

Cleaning up the houseWith all the walls coming down, the Mugabe

government still tried to clean up thehouse from the inside. This led to rarelyobserved economic measures. Theworthless Zimbabwe dollar (a simplebread costs 200.000 Z$), was revaluatedin August 2006. The army-and-govern-ment-controlled Central Bank simplydecided to erase three zeros from thebanknotes! This was also the moment forattack on the black market, which flou-rished. Everyone had three weeks toexchange their money in the new curren-cy. Only within the first week, morethan 2000 black traders were arrested.As if this specialty in a country wellknown for corruption was not enough,the economic wizards had an extraunheard of trick. To control the 1200%inflation, the government declared allprizes frozen during the period of the

introduction of the new money. A surprisingand supporting worthy goal for a country forwhich no official exchange rates exist due tovolatility in prizes. Violation of the ordinationcauses big fines.

Rebuilding the house?Is everybody now running away from the col-lapsing house, leaving the 12,5 million poorinhabitants alone? Luckily there are alwayscountries that do not complain and show inte-rest in taking away valuable resources. So,maybe one day a new castle will rise from theashes, funded by Libyan and Chinese money.

Analysis

ContactIf you have questions about the IAR project,when you want to know more about the IARproject or when you are interested in joiningthe IAR-board for 2007-2008, you can contactMartine van Gerven, president of the IAR pro-ject 2006-2007; [email protected] .Or you can always take a look the website:www.iarproject.nl .


The IAR project is “a study project that willconduct company specific research in emergingmarkets”. In practice this means that as a stu-dent you will travel to a foreign country and forapproximately 1.5 months, you will conductfield research for a firm with one or two otherstudent(s). This research can be about compe-tition analyses, market exploring, growth pos-sibilities, investments opportunities or otherfirm specific questions. The firm pays for allexpenses and the student is responsible for aresearch paper. The research will take place inthe summer vacation; after your research youcan stay longer to explore the cultural and soci-al aspects of the country. For students in theirsecond or third year, this is a perfect opportuni-ty to go abroad, do research, experience anotherculture, and have a small vacation to end with.

BoardThe board of the IAR project is responsible forall practical issues that come into mind. One ofthe most important decisions is to determinethe destination of the project of that particularyear. Being a board member of the IAR projectalso implies a part-time job. You are responsiblefor the acquisition of firms and research, thelogistics, promotion of the project, tickets andall finances. For the academic year 2007-2008,the IAR project is still looking for new boardmembers.

Silvester Bosma - 6 February 2007: A new project is born.The academic research project, or in short IAR project, is aproject that gives students the opportunity to do company speci-fic research in an emerging market in a foreign country. In Maastricht,Amsterdam and Rotterdam, it is already a great success. Last year a numberof students took the initiative to start the IAR project in Utrecht with thegoal to go to China and to do research in an emerging market. Now in asso-ciation with ECU’92 and supported by the University of Utrecht, the projectis brought to the students of Utrecht.

IAR projectExplore with knowledge

Article


Photopage: St. Petersburg

easiest. The only thing you need to do is say‘yes’. However, it might be hard to find a sui-

table candidate who wants to marry you.Not that you are not a lovely person, butonly about 0.0001percent of the peoplein the world isamong the people

who are rich enoughfor this strategy to be

really successful.

4. Become a famous pop starIf marrying the money is so hard, why not try tomake it yourself than, by making music forexample? The most famous artists of the world

earn enough money with one show to buy avery expensive car or in the most successfulcases even a nice apartment. Also the mostfamous Dutch artists, like Anouk, earn seve-ral ten thousands ofeuros with only oneshow! Make a nicetour through Europeand you are very rich.

But on the other hand,there are so many bandsand singers trying tobreak through, and solittle who have success. And what if you are abad singer and untalented musician?

5. Learn to play footballRunning a bit, trying to hit a ball, for 90 minu-


1. Let others do the workAs an editor at the Ecunomist, it isusually expected to be creativeand come up with possibletopics to write about. But thistime our final editor Joëlle justtold me what to write. And thisbrings us to the first way tobecome rich without economics:just sit down, relax and let othersserve you. On the other hand, I amafraid that being an editor of the Ecunomistwill never make us rich… So maybe there arebetter ways.

2. Choose rich ancestorsAn old Italian saying tells usthat the ways to become richcan be divided into three cate-gories. It says that “there arethree ways to make money:one can inherit it, one canmarry it or one can steal it”.We are looking for legal waysto get rich, so the latter is notan option. Therefore we conclude that beforeyou are born, you should make sure that yourgrandparents have enough money that you caninherit.

3. Marry Bill GatesThe second part of the Italian saying advises usto marry a rich person. Of all ways to get richwithout studying economics, this is one of the

Roderick Udo – Are you frustrated because you did not pass your exams? Orjust wondering whether there are other ways to earn money than by study-ing? Maybe the Ecunomist can give you some ideas. We present to you tenways to get rich without studying economics. Of course you can undertakecriminal activities, but that is not what our suggestions are about. We takethe legal road to wealth. Carefully read our advices and do not try this athome. It is better to try it on a sunny beach in the Caribbean.

Ten ways to get rich.. ..without studying economics

Article


tes every week and earning millions of dollarswith it. Sounds easy. The most successful foot-ball players got very rich, without having tostudy. So I decided to buy a ball and a pair ofshoes and started practi-cing in the park. Practiceturned out to be muchmore difficult than theo-ry. The same as with popstars applies: there arenot so many who reach abreak through.

6. Buy a football playerIf you can not become a successful football pla-yer, why not buy one? There are many success-ful examples of earning money by buying andselling football players. PSV Eindhoven forexample once contracted Ronaldo. And after hehad played some time at PSV, he was sold to FC

Barcelona and PSVreceived a 34 mil-lions of Dutch guil-ders (it was a longtime ago, when wedid not pay witheuros yet). On the

other hand… PSV just lost the Dutch PremierLeague title, so one could wonder whether thisstrategy is the most successful.

7. Start gamblingYou are a student, so you do not have anythingto lose. Why not start gambling? Go to the casi-no or bet on sports matches. This is a quiterisky way of trying to get rich, but it can be very

successful. However,there is one problem.You first need money togamble… And have youever wondered whysomeone would start acasino or lottery? Notbecause he wants to

give you some money for charity reasons, Iguess.

8. Save everything you earnIf you put all your money in a bank account andwait long enough, the accrued interest willmake you rich. It mighttake a decade or two,but you do not haveto do anything morethan lying on thebeach with a cocktailand wait until you arerich. But also for this strate-gy you first need some money.

9. Start an internet search-engineAmong the richest people on earth are thosewho started with Google. ‘Googling’ is even aword thathas beenincluded inthe dictio-nary. So itseems thatcreating this kind of website is very lucrative.But how many Googles are there?

10. Use your TomTomHow to find the best road to a destination? Usea route planner. So ask your TomTom naviga-tion software for the best way to getting richand it might show you the way. At least the

directors of TomTomfound it. But it seems theydeleted the road fromtheir route planner afterthe TomTom had shownit to them.

I could finish this guide with a fantastic hack-neyed phrase: I am healthy and I am happy, I amas rich as one can be.But I might make youhappier by concludingthat we are in theright place, studyingeconomics. If it is yourultimate goal to getrich or not, you at least know a great deal aboutmoney after studying economics.

Article

biggest, the ABP, which administers the pen-sions of some 2.4 million government employ-ees, civilian as well as military, has done verywell with its shares in the American firmRaytheon, that produces a host of weaponssystems.

Four M-1 Abrams tanks in various stages of upgrade onthe reassembly line at Anniston Army Depot CombatVehicle Facility.

Last year their stock went up with almosttwenty percent! This underlines that ABP beha-ves responsibly toward all those who aredependent on it for the disbursement of theirpension. So, more power to them... Yet thatpolicy is now called into question, not only bysome union officials, also by the Dutch ministerfor development aid. Especially after a recentbroadcast of the current affairs programZembla revealed that both ABP and PGGM,another big player, had sunk some 229 millionEuro in the production of cluster bombs andanother 59 million in that of landmines. Whatthis tells us is that there is not merely a financi-


This Lend-Lease Act, proposed by FDR inJanuary 1941 and passed by Congress in March,went a long way toward solving the concerns ofboth Great Britain's desperate need for suppliesand America's desire to appear neutral. Thephrase Roosevelt coined also had a nice ring toit: arsenal of democracy. Who could disagreewith that? And who would dare criticise theweapons manufacturers that were to fill thisarsenal? No one in his right mind.Today it seems to be the exact opposite. Thearms industry has come under heavy fire, parti-cularly in those countries where there is little ofit and where it does not significantly boost theemployment figures. And no one in his rightmind will spring to its defence. On the contra-ry. The Belgian government has recently evenprohibited national banks from investing in theproduction of cluster bombs, on the groundsthat they are inhumane weapons whose faultybomblets kill many innocent civilians long aftera conflict has ended. Encouraged by that deve-lopment Netwerk Vlaanderen, the organisationthat initiated this move, advocates the end to allfinancial involvement in the arms industry andurges people to invest their money elsewhere. Ifeveryone were to heed their call it would in thelong run be the kiss of death to the weaponsmanufacturers. The dawn of a New World,where peace and tranquillity reign supreme.

As it turns out, the Belgians are not alone intheir crusade. Recently the pension funds in theNetherlands have drawn bad publicity for theirinvestments in the arms industry. One of the

Wiebren Tabak - “Give us the tools and we will finish the job.” Thus promisedWinston Churchill in 1940 in a BBC broadcast. The British premier wasappealing to the Americans to supply his nation with enough war materiel toenable it to carry on the fight against Nazi Germany. In response Americanpresident Franklin Delano Roosevelt proposed to Congress a new militaryaid bill to “lend-lease or otherwise dispose of arms” and other supplies nee-ded by any country whose security was vital to the defence of the UnitedStates. America would serve as an “arsenal of democracy”.

The arms industry: a moral issue?

Analysis


al side to investing in the arms industry, but a moral one as well.

Gobal exportsLet us stick to the economic aspects for just ashort while longer. Figures published by SIPRI(Stockholm International Peace ResearchInstitute) show that the global downwardtrend in international transfers of major wea-pons was reversed in 2003. Since then there hasbeen an increase in the volume of major armstransfers. According to national reporting, thefinancial values of global arms exports is esti-mated at $44–53 billion, or 0.5–0.6 per cent ofworld trade, in 2004, the most recent year forwhich data are available. The five largest sup-pliers in the period 2001–2005 were Russia, theUSA, France, Germany and the UK. Russia andthe USA each accounted for roughly 30 per centof global deliveries of major weapons. It shouldalso be noted that China is fast emerging as oneof the world’s biggest, most secretive and irres-ponsible arms exporters, according to AmnestyInternational. Chinese weapons have helpedsustain brutal conflicts, criminal violence andother grave human rights violations in coun-tries such as Sudan, Nepal and Myanmar. TheAmnesty report that mentioned these facts alsopointed to the possible involvement of Westerncompanies in the manufacture of some of theseweapons. Which brings us to the ethics in thearms industry, that judging from the above, aresadly lacking; making the case of NetwerkVlaanderen and like-minded organisations allthe more convincing. However, their approachwould only work if it were universally adopted,and that, sad to say, is unlikely to happen.

Sword into ploughsharesBefore targeting a specific group in our society,we must therefore examine our moral highground. For although the arms industry maycontribute towards the sustaining of conflicts,it does not as a rule start them. People do. Andthis is where we come to the root of the pro-blem. From the dawn of creation to the presentman has been his own greatest enemy. We livein a dangerous world filled with conflicts. Andwhile they are fuelled by arms, they are also ter-

minated by them. Those who would forbid uni-lateral investments in the arms industry take acommendable moral view, yet lose sight of asimple historical truth. The Nazi suppression ofEurope was not ended by force of argumentsbut by force of arms. Four years of talking didnot convince the Bosnian Serbs to halt theiraggression, a short NATO air and artilleryoffensive did. But by then 200.000 people laydead already. Bottom line: sometimes there issimply no other alternative than to fight, andthen we had better possess “the tools to do thejob”, because the bad guys surely will. We caneither keep our innocence and lose our freedomor lose our innocence and keep our freedom, butwe cannot have both.

The Swedish submarine Södermanland after conversion.

“They shall beat their swords into ploughsharesand their spears into pruning hooks; nationshall not lift up sword against nation, neithershall they learn war anymore”, reads that won-derful vision in the Bible (Isaiah 2:4). It’s thelast bit of this prophecy that we keep trippingover.

Analysis

vergrijzing en de gevolgen daarvan, ze laten het liever op zich afkomen.

De sprekersAlle bovenstaande problemen passeerden derevue tijdens een levendig debat met verschil-lende soorten mensen voor een publiek metoverwegend economiestudenten. PeterKooiman (CPB) verdedigde met verve de reken-modellen van het CPB, Jeroen Visser probeerdeduidelijk te maken dat de vakcentrale FNV zichinzet voor opbouwend beleid voor alle lagenvan de bevolking, Sweder van Wijnbergen pro-beerde uit te leggen dat het allemaal niet zo’nvaart liep en dat we ook niet in paniek moestenraken en zeker geen gekke dingen moestendoen, Stef Blok haalde uit naar de politiek dieniets doet en afwacht waar de VVD allerleimaatregelen heeft genomen, Ferd Crone washet daar als PvdA’er niet mee eens en verdedig-de ondertussen de fiscalisering van de AOW,Ton Monasso bleef als Jonge Democraat over-eind in het geweld van de ‘ouderen’ en verde-digde met overtuiging het standpunt van dejongeren, Nico Schouten van de SP was vanmening dat de jongeren niet te moeilijk moestendoen en rekening moeten blijven houden met deouderen. Dit alles onder leiding van universitairdocent Thijs Knaap die met zijn kennis vanzaken verschillende stellingen heeft ingeleid.

Noemenswaardig is nog dat Thijs Knaap in depauze is geïnterviewd door BNN United. Metdit interview en het debat is wellicht een eerstestap gezet naar meer beleving onder jongerenen een oplossing voor de vergrijzingproblema-tiek. Alleen de tijd kan het ons leren.


Een introductie werd verzorgd door PeterBorgdorff van de Vereniging BedrijfstakPensioenfondsen. In het debat kwam de visienaar voren van het CPB (Peter Kooiman), hetFNV (Jeroen Visser), de PvdA (Ferd Crone),VVD (Stef Blok), Jonge Democraten (TonMonasso) en SP (Nico Schouten). Daarbijkwam ook een wetenschappelijke input van dekant van Sweder van Wijnbergen en dagvoor-zitter Thijs Knaap. Genoeg input voor eeninhoudelijk discussie, en dat werd het.

VergrijzingVergrijzing is een begrip dat de afgelopen jarensteeds meer de kop op steekt. De AOW die vooralle ouderen een basisinkomen moet verzorgenis ingesteld in de jaren ’60. Het omslagstelselwaar de jongeren van nu betalen voor de oude-ren van nu werkte toen nog prima omdat deverdeling ongeveer 50/50 was. Echter nu en inde jaren die komen wordt de verhouding tussenouderen en jongeren alleen maar schever, wattot gevolg heeft dat minder jongeren voor meerouderen moeten gaan betalen. Verschillendeaspecten komen bij deze problematiek naarvoren. Zo kun je je afvragen of het wel zo’ngroot probleem is als het wordt voorgeschil-derd. Welke oplossingen zijn er te bedenken?Wie moet de rekening betalen van fouten uithet verleden? Is het eerlijk als jongeren meerbetalen of moeten de ouderen ook gaan meebe-talen? Vragen die niet zo heel makkelijk tebeantwoorden zijn, maar wel de moeite van hetoverdenken waard zijn. Zeker voor jongeren,want zij zijn toch degene die er in de toekomsthet meest mee geconfronteerd worden. Tochblijkt dat jongeren zich niet bezig houden met

Silvester Bosma - Dinsdag 24 april 2007 stond in de senaatszaal van hetAcademiegebouw een debat op het programma met als titel: “De gevolgenvan de vergrijzingproblematiek voor jongeren.” De Discussie-enLezingencommissie (DLC) van ECU’92 was verantwoordelijk voor de organi-satie en presenteerde een uitgebreide line-up van debaters.

Vergrijzingsdebat

Review: Debate


Column

Al deze sociale dieren willen niets liever dan fijncontact hebben met anderen, maar dan blijk-baar niet met die vreemde, onbekende socialedieren. De mens doet er zelfs alles aan om dedirecte nabijheid van anderen te voorkomen. Ishet niet door zo snel mogelijk de individuelezitplaatsen te bezetten, dan is het wel door hetzo onaantrekkelijk mogelijk maken van ander-mans optie om naast jou plaats te nemen. Hetals eerste plaatsnemen in een vierzits beperktde mogelijkheid van het opwerpen van barrica-des tegen de medepassagiers blijkbaar zodanig,dat menigeen nog liever staat! In de trein is het al niet anders, inclusief baga-gebarricades en strategisch zitgedrag. En de NSspeelt hier goed op in door het aantal klassiekevierzitsbanken geleidelijk te vervangen doormeer geïndividualiseerde zitplaatsen.

Mensen zijn helemaal niet op zoek naar contactmet anderen maar proberen dit juist te vermij-den. De uitzondering is een enkel oud dametjedat nog daadwerkelijk de behoefte voelt naastje te komen zitten en een gesprekje aan teknopen. Vroeger was dat blijkbaar wel nor-maal. Nu wordt zevreemd aangekeken.Toch doe ik in hetopenbaar vervoer pre-cies hetzelfde als derest van de mensen. Jijwaarschijnlijk ook.Maar er is voor mij eenheel duidelijke grens:een staanplaats verkie-zen boven een ruime,vrije zitplaats gaat te allen tijde te ver.

Men komt derhalve in aanraking met allerlei'andere' soorten mensen. De ideale omgevingvoor de observerende en analyserende mens,waartoe de columnist zich mag rekenen, dunktmij. Zelf stuitte ik ook weer eens op een feno-meen dat zich in het openbaar vervoer aan mijonthulde. De mens wordt een 'sociaal dier'genoemd. Intermenselijk contact is belangrijkvoor de mens. Sterker nog, uit onderzoek blijktdat verbondenheid met anderen de meest bepa-lende factor is voor het geluksgevoel van men-sen.

Maar nu de waarnemingen in het gedrags-onderzoeklaboratorium dat openbaar vervoerheet... Ik stapte de stadsbus in samen met een hordeandere sociale dieren. In de bus waren aan derechterkant éénzits-plaatsen, achterin warenvooral tweezitsplaatsen en voorin links was éénvierzitsplaats. Wat bleek bij het instappen? Deeenzitsplaatsen worden als eerste bezet tot zeallemaal bezet zijn, vervolgens loopt men doornaar achteren om de tweezitsplaatsen te bezet-ten, het liefst door de tas bij het raam te plaat-sen en zelf bij het gangpad te gaan zitten. Toenik de bus binnen kwam, was het al behóórlijkdruk in de bus, maar wat was er uitgerekendnog helemaal leeg? Juist, de vierzits. Achterinstónd al een enkeling! Precies op dat momentging het bovenstaande door mijn hoofd en ikverbaasde mij zeer. Net toen ik vol verbazingwilde gaan zitten in de vierzits, stond er eenman op vanuit een van de eenzitsplaatsen enging weer naar buiten (hij moest blijkbaar tocheen andere bus hebben). Wat deed ik in diesplit-second? Ik ging op de zojuist vrijgekomeneenzitsplaats zitten! Ik ben net zo!

Elias Hermans - Zoals elke columnist weet, is het openbaar vervoer een schieronuitputtelijke inspiratiebron voor menig stuk over de eigenaardigheden vande mens in al zijn verschijningsvormen. Wellicht komt dit door het feit dat erniet zo veel andere situaties zijn waarbij men, min of meer gedwongen, tijddoorbrengt met totale onbekenden, ook nog eens in kleine ruimtes.

Sociale Dieren?

prisoner’s dilemma in this reaso-ning. Taking measures in thearea of Global Warming preven-tion, means investing in alterna-tives for which politicianswould only receive a return inthe long-term. Since other coun-tries refuse to take the samemeasures, governments often donot see the point in making

these expensive investments. The prisoner’sdilemma can be viewed most clearly when loo-king at the power play between China andIndia on the one hand, and the United States onthe other. When designing the Kyoto protocol,the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change differentiated between develo-ping and industrialized countries in sharingresponsibilities. The underlying thought wasthat greenhouse gas emissions during theindustrialization period, were the main contri-butors to Global Warming. As a consequence,an exemption was made for developing coun-tries like China and India who weren’t as much

t o


Of course, Gore is not averseto dramatizing as he pre-sents the consequences ofGlobal Warming. But muchof his ‘evidence’ that globalwarming is happening andthat mankind is the primarycause of it, sounds convin-cing to me. The most signifi-cant example being a graphabout the temperature of the ice at Antarctica.With sophisticated techniques, researchers areable to gauge the temperature of the ice at thetime it was formed, going back for thousands ofyears. This graph contrasts with all the othersin that it not only takes recent temperaturedevelopments into account, which critics alwa-ys claim to be part of ordinary cyclic behavior.The graph with ice temperature measurementsclearly shows that a clear interruption in thecyclical temperature movement is occurringright now to which some external force must becontributing: mankind.

Prisoner’s dilemmaWhile many critics have found Gore’s story notto be completely watertight, the fact remainsthat if only a fraction of it is true, then you’dbetter begin separating your garbage.Unfortunately, politicians are not so willing toseparate their policy ‘garbage’. They’d ratherblame each other for contributing to the GlobalWarming by bad policies, than search theirown conscience which would be much morecostly to them. Economists might recognize the

Joëlle Tabak - “If only Al Gore had become president…” That was the onlythought in my mind as I turned off the television after watching ‘AnInconvenient Truth’. The fact that the United States is one of the two bigcountries (Australia being the other one) that have not ratified the Kyotoprotocol, can be seen as the ‘legacy’ of George W. Bush. But certainly notone that we would like to leave behind for future generations. And so, ‘AnInconvenient Truth’ definitely plays an important and essential part in ringingalarm bells worldwide.

Turn the Tide - Global Warming

Analysis


blame. However a strange paradox occurs rightnow, namely that two of the most pollutingcountries in the world are exempt from adhe-ring to the pollution reductions agreed upon inthe Kyoto protocol. The United States in turnrefuses to ratify Kyoto, as long as China andIndia are exempt from it. This political gameseems to be the main reason why a worldwidefight against Global Warming is not getting offthe ground.

Not only countries, consumers also are heldback by the prisoner’s dilemma. Why invest indouble glass windows and a floor heatingsystem and deny yourself luxuries like taking along bath or using a laundry dryer, if yourneighbors go on polluting and consuming? Theproblem is that if every individual feels thatway, nothing will happen. And that’s why coor-dinated national policy action is so essential.

The NetherlandsSo much for the world stage. Let’s look at theimpact of Global Warming in the Netherlands.The Dutch National Weather Institute, theKNMI, has developed several scenarios for theNetherlands by making use of climate models.But current models do not take into accountsudden changes caused by the paralysis of theGulf Stream or the melting of the ice atGreenland or Antarctica. The KNMI recognizes that, because muchabout these phenomenons remains unknown,current climate models still show a lot of short-comings. However, this does not mean thatsome general remarks about the Netherlandscannot be made. The most important one beingthat there’s an 80 percent chance that in thiscentury the sea level will rise between 35 and 85centimeters. With an even greater increase nextcentury, the western part of the Netherlandswill find it difficult to cope with the problemsof a rising water table caused by this higher sealevel. As mentioned, this process can be spee-ded up by the melting of ice at the North Pole.As Gore already pointed out it is likely that themore ice melts, the faster the melting processwill be as the sea absorbs 90% of sun heatwhere the same 90% bounces off on ice. Also,

the Netherlands will face the same rise in tem-perature as the rest of the world, with an esti-mate varying between 1.5- 6 degrees.Uncertainty is in this case driven by uncertain-ty about future greenhouse gas emissions andthe lack of a precise understanding about theworking of the climate system. But it will cer-tainly mean more dry and hot summers, likethose of 2003 and 2006.

The costsIf the process ofGlobal Warmingis not stopped,the costs will betremendous. Notonly thoseexpressed in thethreat of theliving environ-ment of flora,fauna and humankind but alsoeconomic costs

brought about by the necessity of making chan-ges. Ekki van Ierland, professor of environmen-tal economy at the Wageningen University andResearchcentre, has calculated that adjust-ments in the Netherlands will require tens ofbillions of euros. Affording more space to riverswould already cost 26 billion; let alone the con-struction of climate proof housing which has aprice tag of another 23 billion. Finally, adjust-ments to the ecological structure and the sewe-rage add up to 63 billion of dollars if the tempe-rature rise is limited to 1 percent. It is a pity nosuch precise calculations for other countriesexist, but anyone can figure out that costs on aworld level would be astronomical.

Not to leave you with a greater depression thanin the 1930s, I would like to conclude by sayingthat the technology to combat the climate pro-blem is all there. To put it in the words of AnInconvenient Truth: ‘We definitely have theknowledge and capability to turn the tide.What is needed is social, but above all politicalwill.’ Again: “If only Al Gore had become presi-dent…”

Analysis


Column

the other man insisted.The woman, who had not spoken before, pulledtwo dollar bills from a pocket of her tightly fit-ting trousers and held them out to me. "Can'tyou see he ain't got the fare."I took out my money and showed it to her."Thank you kindly, but you see it is not the fare.I really want to walk."The white man said: "You are not an American.

Where do you come from?"“He is from England. I can tell by his accent,"the other young man decided.For a moment I thought to leave it at that, butthey kept looking at me waiting for confirma-tion. So I told them that I was from theNetherlands."From Amsterdam?" the woman asked."No. Not from Amsterdam, from Utrecht.""And you walk from Utrecht to Amsterdam?"I laughed. "No. It is too far, about 30 miles. Itake the train.""But on your holidays you walk.""That's right."They showed me the direction and accompa-nied me for a few blocks. I had the feeling thatthey never walked so much before in their enti-re life. Back in Skokie I told my brother-in- lawabout the encounter. He looked very scared."You could easily have been mugged and rob-bed. You cannot just get off anywhere inChicago. It is dangerous."I felt like saying: "Very dangerous. You may beoffered two dollars by a pretty young woman."But I restrained myself.

Bilthoven: April 2007

The trouble with coming out of a subway stati-on is that you do not immediately know thedirections. So one day, I think it was nearCicero station of Al Capone fame, I wasn't sureif to turn left or right for getting to the GoldenMile. The street near the station was empty butfor two young men and a young woman stan-ding together across the road. One of the menwas white and the other man and the womanwere black. I crossed over and asked them forthe way."You take bus number so and so and then chan-ge to number so and so," the black man told me."You’d better take the "loop" it is quicker andyou need not change anywhere," said the whiteman pointing to the station I just came from.I thanked them and explained that I just came

by the "loop" and intended to walk."Man. No. It's too far," said the black man."It'll cost you a lot of time. You’d better take thesubway," added the other.I thanked them again and said that I had plen-

ty of time and that I intended to walk."Here is one who has plenty of time. Man! It willtake you hours. You can't walk all the way," saidthe black man.I replied that it made no difference how long ittakes because I was on holidays, and that wal-king was the best way to see a city one has notseen before. "I have as much time as it takes.""He's got time. Man, here is one who got timeand wants to walk miles," the black man saidobviously amused, and he looked at me as if Iwas some rare animal."No, no, it is very far, you’d better take a bus,"

Y.S. Brenner - Chicago. My wife's sister and her family were living in Skokie andwe spent a few days visiting with them. They drove us to Chicago twice. But Iwanted to see more. There is a train from Skokie linking up with the Chicagosubway, the loop as they call it. So each morning I went sightseeing on myown. It was a beautiful warm summer. I did not need a jacket and took onlyidentification papers, train and subway tickets, and a few dollars. I picked asubway station at random to get off, and walked from there in the directionof the lake. From there I was able to take the train back to Skokie.

Reflections of a Dakosaurus

However, this implies it’s more than just theshyness of a 14-year old at a high-school promwe are dealing with here; serious underlyingxenophobia is pulsing through society’s veins.Distrust is bread further when we confront thestark fact that Dutch culture in itself is…well,isn’t. Only in the direst conditions can an effec-tive unifying cry be heard, while the rest of thetime one struggles to observe a binding factorwhich paints the cultural picture.

This nationwears culturelike their leastfavourite swea-ter – never com-fortable with itsodd size, shapeand smell butstill dusting it off

every now andthen because their friends all have one, becausetheir mother gave it to them and because it’swhat all the hip kids wear. With it on, theyhope to blend; instead, they bland. It seems fas-hionable for the Dutch to take this last criticismand spin it, implying that ‘Dutch sobriety’ beanything but a con.

As for a solution to this apparent lack of identi-ty, the Dutch would have to grow up and getover their latent fear of foreigners, using theavailable elements as a necessary fashion-upgrade. Crossing the gaps by building bridges,then filling them from the outside in will provemost effective, and it isn’t even that difficult.After all, didn’t the Dutch invent slavery?


The situation here at USE offers a small-scale x-ray of the disparity as a whole. We can spotseveral aspects which are in fine shape. First,there is variety in the population, which isessential for the formation of carefully-weig-hed, aggregate thoughts and decisions. Second,there is a unified goal and structure – the studyof economics, at one faculty, striving for thesame diploma is the shared horizon. Lastly,there is another crucial element for most pro-cesses; time. So Dutch culture does provide thefounding blueprint for an effective, expressiveculture, but lacks the know-how and ingenuityto make it grow from there.One element is missing to complete the abovelist: interaction. Looking at the whole picture,we need to be very aware of an importantdistinction. In Holland, it is the presence offoreign people (and their cultures) that isaccepted, not their values and what perspectivethey might bring. Indeed, the Dutch are mostlypassive towards shared values, taking the you-adapt-to-us approach towards integration.This distance creates a high barrier for guests toget through, and hinders any real collusion.Without any reciprocal interest for sharing anddiffusion no advances can be made.

When regarding the question of why the Dutchmostly stick to shallow ties with foreigners, bethey colleagues or acquaintances, we can findseveral clues to this attitude in history. Seeingas nearly every time Holland - as much as it wascalled that back then - came into contact withforeign nations it has been harmed, its onlynatural there is an in-bread weariness (whichfilters through regardless of how little theDutch know about their own history).

Florian Krätke - Culture in Holland is an interesting fabric, in the sense that itis completely unhinged. There is seemingly no real colluding factor, just oddstrands tied to one another without any clear pattern. Frustration bubbles atthe tears and lack of symmetry in the overall piece. This deplorable statemakes it increasingly harder for other cultures, brought here by internatio-nals, to be soaked up in the pleats of Dutch society.

Our Uncultured Colleagues

Final Say

Ecunomist, Year 16, Issue 4

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Transcript of Ecunomist, Year 16, Issue 4