52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp...

14
5 4 1

Transcript of 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp...

Page 1: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

5

���������4� 1

Page 2: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

jihk6�����

2

����M/:�56131������UdK�L4#�w��,�gZ��N3000��(N33��) ���V��5�25%�dK�[xYJ�;"T2w|�

M���U+R��w������%x��S&rm��M��/!�5691q�eO�\�cn�p���$��A�Qt�u���'w|���E�Wn}z�t��������^3)�rv��D�x�}�ol

46�?]��9GH�*_rny��B`w|�(ba��0X�fI�B��q��M�^3-.�mp��4=B`rQs�?]��nr{r��� �7<���F�16 ����>C��~|l

�����P@�� 846

Page 3: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

�������

.

3

4

7

59

901 5

Page 4: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

1. E�I8(Jlp�"xB3

•E��@q5.13+���W�p%$_[u���1p�}�o�Y�S�nmx&_au��p6AxN Z9o��|��onik\up_I8(Jh�E��@q5.15+���pO2�-�&�I8(Jo!euE�L�y�{S�nmp� �pBM)Gx=Kdg�E�LpY�S�o��dk`g�ApF�rp'*qRatvn\�

����

• �I8(Jq�Cos�}����z�nm�aoHAV=dg�/~��(OS)x <�eu��#sb]dg�`q Pd���pH�,:x Pcfu^_5?cvuZ��LQ����o4ig10pT7�Ul23p�?oj\kqX�>o;1D��p��x�w]ldk\u

������

���{�F6���04. 4

Page 5: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

2. 015.��DKGj__mcQ��3�

��hbk5. �)4(

(�!)��6>�Y[�

5

�;1:=B*@?"�9',$&(PMI)

2019�4(U=B*@?9"�$&(PMI)V50.1Rp(HZ0.ng`ld�:NOodile%+TY\���<F4U�J�M^�Lp�-X01I/ANOo#�q8�U�H]2RS\50^2a(C7Q��POWUUp#�UfmcV(HZE�Np����^��PO

(HZ0.4g`ld/�

51.451.9

51.551.2 51.3

50.850.2 50

49.4 49.549.2

50.550.1

47.548

48.549

49.550

50.551

51.552

52.5

2018�4(

2018�5(

2018�6(

2018�7(

2018�8(

2018�9(

2018�10(

2018�11(

2018�12(

2019�1(

2019�2(

2019�3(

2019�4(

Page 6: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

��WSY0)���&4%

(�#)��15�LN�"

�32:�'���,-�J+(��:%)

2.,-0)�!9>:XQQ[TC�!/�

6

4%H�'���,-H�JI ��%(5.4% DFN] %<M3.1VRZU�2?@\48'I76C].'FEP��G�$?��= KAB;O

%<M3.1VRZU*�

76.8 6.7

6 6.15.8 5.9

5.45.7 5.7

5.4

8.5

5.4

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

2018�4%

2018�5%

2018�6%

2018�7%

2018�8%

2018�9%

2018�10%

2018�11%

2018�12%

2019�1%

2019�2%

2019�3%

2019�4%

Page 7: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

3..b*>*>R16�TW�)-D ;A3Q�B!

4%Q2�*>���6CR���%(7.2%��IKd��/R3%Q8.7%FV7�Ie2003�5%Q4.3%�&Q�HMOLKd�%(1.5]Z`\�9IKd=��$Q8�?ONQ01G$XYJe�S/R2a%TWP@�IKE

(�#)��5<�UW"

�:3c2�*>���6C(��:%)

��^[_4+���'4% 7

�%FV0.5]Z`\,�

9.4

8.5

9.4

8.89

9.2

8.6

8.1 8.2 8.2

8.7

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

2018�4%

2018�5%

2018�6%

2018�7%

2018�8%

2018�9%

2018�10%

2018�11%

2018�12%

2019�1b2%

2019�3%

2019�4%

Page 8: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

3. 4h1D1DW16�Y[�03K�AF8V H"!

�@4:1D;4%'(CPI)�X56;4%'(PPI)(��:%)

��d_f92�� -4, 8

(�$)��:C�Z[�#

4,V1D;4%'(CPI)W���,/2.5%�S�,Z[0.2c]gb�?OPjI�.W6.1%�*k5JE>N17.4%��N[OPjCPI�?V�B�SORk�7G)k&<(��X^g`ia]egbk��.V�*UTN=+SUQRM\L

1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.52.2

1.9 1.7 1.5

2.3 2.5

3.4

4.1

4.7

3.64.1

3.6

2.5 2.7

0.9

0.1 0.10.4

0.9

00.51

1.52

2.53

3.54

4.55

2018�4,

2018�5,

2018�6,

2018�7,

2018�8,

2018�9,

2018�10,

2018�11,

2018�12,

2019�1,

2019�2,

2019�3,

2019�4,

CPI PPI

Page 9: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

4.��:.#:%�'�PTbC�9D5@AB�#:P/"

(!)��38�UW�

9

1-4'Q=�<��:.#:R���(*6.1%�NOWd0���(FV0.2]Z`\>�HJc%�1Q#:Q�SG$�IX�&d+?Q�SR>�G4EMEXc+?#:Q�SG���(*5.5%NOWd1-3'Q6.4%FV0.9]Z`\6L;YK

��^[_2, ��)4'

�75:��:.#:�S+?��:.#:�S-(��:%)

8.4 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.7

7.5

6.4 6.1

7

6.1 65.5 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.9

5.46.1 6.3

5.5

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2018�1a4'

2018�1a5'

2018�1a6'

2018�1a7'

2018�1a8'

2018�1a9'

2018�1a10'

2018�1a11'

2018�1a12'

2019�1a2'

2019�1a3'

2019�1a4'

��:.#: +?��:.#:

Page 10: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

5.2*P-�/2#�>36!A 84�=

�+6R0.�(1(M2)>�@&(��:%)

10

(�)��),�BD��

4�>LIQGJME(M2)?T����"8.5%�>188�5400�;<DT�@&?��7C0.3KEOH��9:SLIQGJME(M1)?����"2.7%�>53�9600��;<DT�@&?��7C1.3KEOH%�9:5

��LFN'$���4�

��BD0.1KEOH%�

8.3

7.5

8

8.28.3

8 88.1

8.4

8

8.68.5

7.4

7.6

7.8

8

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

2018�4�

2018�5�

2018�6�

2018�7P8�

2018�9�

2018�10�

2018�11�

2018�12�

2019�1�

2019�2�

2019�3�

2019�4�

Page 11: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

10)�HF?)�.�?�5C,'

1-4�?HF)�?*�$-@�����4.3%�?9.51��=>;8K4:*-6�����35.7%�?5.06��<2*�-6�����2.9%�?4.45��9;8K)�/�@6181.7���=>D/��@43.8%%�783

�(7: *?�A�"( �:%) �(8: *�?�A�"( �:%)

11

(�) +$&BD�� (�) +$&BD��

��GEI#!���4�

6.4

12.6

4.9

7.9

16.6

20.1

10.2

7.6

13.9

7.8

21.3

18.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

2018�4�

2018�5�

2018�6�

2018�7J8�

2018�9�

2018�10�

2018�11�

2018�12�

2019�1�

2019�2�

2019�3�

2019�4�

11.7

26

11.5

18.817.4

26.3

7.8

4.42.9

12.9

1.8

5.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2018�4�

2018�5�

2018�6�

2018�7�

8�

2018�9�

2018�1

0�

2018�1

1�

2018�1

2�

2019�1�

2019�2�

2019�3�

2019�4�

Page 12: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

7.��8!�e �(�cgi���VS:!�eA20p2fidT�lKQ

�G9:�8D�-.(B�) (2017/3/1-2017/4/28)

52�/ ��HR>%Y�[G0l�ZV�#1�d�["lKQ

^`

U2�/

@�I�dN�=_jJ�X@�a;�]k`\bWh<� �X�$q�FcM_`

U2�/

�6��X�3^`\baLP7�)'X&O^5l,^�[`

(�+) kabutangi?E*

13��nmoC9���442

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

2019/4/4

2019/4/6

2019/4/8

2019/4/10

2019/4/12

2019/4/14

2019/4/16

2019/4/18

2019/4/20

2019/4/22

2019/4/24

2019/4/26

2019/4/28

2019/4/30

2019/5/2

2019/5/4

2019/5/6

2019/5/8

2019/5/10

2019/5/12

2019/5/14

2019/5/16

2019/5/18

2019/5/20

2019/5/22

2019/5/24

2019/5/26

2019/5/28

2019/5/30

2019/6/1

2019/6/3

Page 13: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

7.��3��W��"�U[\���KI5��W<20e-X\VJ�^DG

�C10:ad`d?�()(=�) (2017/3/1-2017/4/28)

5-�+���STRQf.��2g;�F,%�V6U�P]#!N�\/*STR

QL

5-�+A �8U[]E&OZ�RQNg;��9YV#!N7OQf

5-�+f;�F,�HV#!U�Mg;�1V�BZ�\/*U

(')Searchina Finance[\:@�$

14��b_c>4 ��04-

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

2019/04/04

2019/04/08

2019/04/09

2019/04/10

2019/04/11

2019/04/12

2019/04/15

2019/04/16

2019/04/17

2019/04/18

2019/04/23

2019/04/24

2019/04/25

2019/04/26

2019/04/29

2019/04/30

2019/05/02

2019/05/03

2019/05/06

2019/05/07

2019/05/08

2019/05/09

2019/05/10

2019/05/14

2019/05/15

2019/05/16

2019/05/17

2019/05/20

2019/05/21

2019/05/22

2019/05/23

2019/05/24

2019/05/27

2019/05/28

2019/05/29

2019/05/30

2019/05/31

2019/06/03

2019/06/04

2019/06/05

Page 14: 52.01 5. DKGj__mcQ 3 hbk5. )4(( !) 6> Y[ 5 ;1:=B*@?" 9',$&(PMI) 2019 4(U=B*@?9" $&(PMI)V50.1Rp (HZ0.ng`ld :NOodile%+TY\

51psmt• 2019%41pMU5RNI*(,.(PMI)q50.1m��1`w0.��{�}�Jgi�}���-6ovy!��L[Bp'b�ez�d��9u?@a<Tgi�

?@

• 1-41pW$V� Q@)Qq�%�276.1%�mnx�C���2`w0.2�{�}Y�gi�-&Dp)Qp�ra+�hy�/�8Zp�rqY�aFc�

� Q@)Q

• 41pA�:O�"�G\q�%�177.2%��gi���>q31p8.7%`wH"g�2003%51p4.3%�3p�fmnki��171.5�{�}�Jgi^

=�:O

• 41pM2q��%�178.5%�p188�5400�mnx��r>q�1`w0.3�{�}��gi�M1q�%�172.7%�p53�9600�mnx��r>q1.3�{�}<#^

XK

• 1-41p�~P0pS� G\q�%�274.3%�p9.51��mnki�_jS�\a�%�1735.7%�p5.06��l]S \a�%�172.9%�p4.45��^

P0

14���|�E;���441