Duurzame Technologie eist sturing Lunchlezing Netwerk DO 11 dec 2002 Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt.

Duurzame Technologie eist sturing

Lunchlezing Netwerk DO11 dec 2002

Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt

Duurzame Technologie eist sturing

Inleiding: Duurzame Ontwikkeling Het programma DTO Het SusHouse project Transities en transitiemanagement Maatschappelijke sturing?

Introducing myself: Ph.D. in physical Chemistry (1976) (Senior) Lecturer in Chemistry and Society,

Groningen University (1976-90) Researcher in technological innovation studies Policy maker, Dutch Ministry of the

Environment (1990-92) Dept. Director, Sustainable Technological

Development Programme (1993-97) Chair of Technology Assessment, Delft

University of Technology: TBM 1991-1999; Industrial Design (1999-2002)

1. Sustainable Development

Sustainable Development is development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs

(Brundtland, 1987)

Sustainable development (2)

Three aspects are central in this definition:

Fulfillment of (basic) needs Equity between North and South Solidarity with future generations

Introduction The Dutch NEPP-4 (2001) calls for

transitions, system innovations, in order to address persistent environmental problems.

Transitions are:“gradual continuous processes of societal

changes in which society changes structurally”

They imply coordinated developments in culture, technology, economics, ecology, institutions, behavior, worldviews

Strategies for sustainable development

Technological strategies: the Dutch Program “Sustainable Technological Development” (1993-1997)

Socio-technical strategies: The EU project “Strategies towards the Sustainable Household” (1998-2000)

System strategies: The new Dutch National Environmental Policy Plan (2001-)

STD Program: factor 20

Factor 20 was defined by the following equation:

Year EB M Pr WP

2000: 1 = 1 x 1 x 12050: ½ = 1/20 x 5 x 2

EB = Environmental BurdenM = Metabolism; environmental burden per unit of need

fulfillmentPr = Level of production and consumptionWP = World Population

Factor 20 and back-casting Back-casting is: looking back from a desired

or unavoidable future towards the present 2050: desired:

-a sustainable society-equity between North and South-reduction of total environmental

burden 2050: unavoidable:

-population growth

2. The Dutch STD Program In the Dutch “Sustainable Technological

Development Program” (STD, 1993-97), it was postulated that in a sustainable society needs will have to be fulfilled by a factor 20 less environmental burden per unit of need fulfillment.

Needs are defined as nutrition, water, shelter, transportation, recreation, etc.

Time horizonsfactor

20

12000 2050

End of pipe technologies;Good house keeping; ecodesign

Technological innovation; from products to services

System innovation;transitions

STD Program: Aims

The aims of the STD Program were: (Weaver et al, 2000):

Integrate sustainability policy and technology policy

Develop, demonstrate, and evaluate methodologies for influencing innovation processes in the direction of sustainable technologies

Initiate new technological trajectories related to key areas of need

STD Program: Aims (2)

Engage and involve stakeholders in innovation processes

Demonstrate that sustainable technologies are possible, in principle, if research, development, and innovation processes are appropriately oriented and resourced

Disseminate and communicate programme results, nationally and internationally, among innovators, policy makers, opinion leaders, and partners in implementing sustainability

STD: Illustrative Processes Nutrition

Novel Protein Foods Multifunctional land use

Mobility Urban underground freight transport Mobile hydrogen fuel cell

Buildings and urban space Sustainble public housing Sustainble office space

Services provided by water: municipal water chain Services provided by materials/chemicals

STD: Methodology

1. Strategic Problem Orientation2. Development Future Vision3. Back-casting4. Explore solution options5. Selection and generate action plan 6. Set up cooperative agreements; define

roles7. Implementation research agenda

3. STD-Methodologie

Vision Development:

Strategic problem orientation

Future vision Back-casting

Back-casting (1)

Back-casting is reasoning backwards from a sustainable and desirable future vision towards the present (direct or in steps)

And in the present developing activities aimed at realization of that future vision

Back-casting

2000 2050

factor20

1

Creativity workshop

Back-casting;Action planning

Short-termproject

1.

2.3.

Back-casting (2): elements: Technological innovations (leap-

frogs?) Cultural breaches of trend Mobilization of stakeholders

(interested and affected) Short-term barriers Long term trends

Back-casting (3) Look back from a desired future Define intermediate goals under

way Develop Socio-Technical

Experiments Evaluate social and organizational

learning Develop intervention policies

Culture, Structure, and Technology

In STD need fulfillment is central Technological innovations alone

cannot reach factor 20 Cultural changes are necessary

(how are our needs constituted) Structural changes are necessary:

economics, infrastructure, knowledge infrastructure,

Interaction between technology, culture, and structure

Social needs

technology

culture structure

By what means?

Which? How to organize?

Outcomes of STD:

A number of projects; some of them are still going on (Multiple Sustainable Land Use; Sustainable Transportation; Novel Protein foods; Sustainable Chemistry)

A book A Methodology The SusHouse project A new policy approach

4. The EU Sustainable Household project

The present households consume a lot of energy, water, detergents, fuels for transportation, consumption goods, and are quickly becoming the main source of resource depletion, environmental solution, loss of biodiversity, climate change, etc

STD learned: technological solutions alone are not enough; socio-cultural changes are also needed

Aim of the SusHouse project The aim of the project is to

develop and evaluate strategies for transitions towards sustainable households

Three household functions are selected as cases: nutrition, shelter, and clothing care

Why the Household?

Households pollute a lot:-energy: electricity, heating, cooling-water consumption-Waste generation

In households consumer demand is constructed

Consumers form an ‘untamed’ problem for policy makers

Definition of the household The household is the smallest economic

unit in society Persons living in a household share certain

functions like: Living space Shopping Cooking Eating Washing clothes Leisure time holidays

Methodology

Develop future visions in creativity workshops with stakeholders

Derive Design Orienting Scenarios (DOSs) from future visions

Environmental, economic assessments, and consumer acceptance research of DOSs and proposals

Back-casting and implementation workshops with stakeholders

RESEARCH TEAM

INSTITUTIONS

S Z É FSegedi Tudományegyetem

College-Faculty of Food Industry

RESEARCH TEAMS

NETHERLANDS…

UK…

ITALY…

HUNGARY…

GERMANY…

Internal organization:9 country projects

Shoppingcookingeating

Clothing Care

Shelter

Germany X @

Hungary X

Italy @ X

Netherlands X X

UK @ X

Results:Integrated vision

Come togetherNeighborhood food centerCollective Clothing Care Clothing care outsourcing

Comfort management servicesNeighborhood food center

Local and greenMy clothes, my eternal friends

Natural living

High-tech rural gardenWearablesEdumation

Soft clothing careHigh-tech eatingVirtual shopping

Easy clothing CareActive House

Collective

Individual

Enabling Relieving

HIGH CARE

CARE SOCIALISING

CARE OUTSOURCING

EASY CARE

SOFT CARE

Clothing Care Outsourcing (CC)Comfort management service (Sh)Neighborhood food center (SCE, Nl)

Service scenario Households without appliances Environmental gain by better

management

Care Outsourcing

The scenario is characterised by a certain deconstruction of the household as it is traditionally thought as a place for the fulfilment of domestic functions. The household is emptied of domestic appliances and is either, the point of arrival of incoming services delivered to the home or, a central life-base from which the household members reach external services installed in the neighbourhood.

A range of services provides the household members with ready-to-consume solutions, such as: warmth and light; prepared food; clean clothes…like a hotel. In a less luxurious/cocoon-like solution, local service points propose the same solutions at a short distance from the household.

The environmental goals of the scenario refer to bigger scales than the level of the single household would allow. Both management and processes of the various functions are externalised to qualified, bigger structures such as restaurants or clothing care centre which are more likely to implement and control sustainable technology. Even household heating and lighting systems are managed and upgraded by external comfort management services to guarantee the eco-efficiency.

HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

OUTSOURCING CARE

Care Socializing

Come together (Sh, Ge)Neighborhood food center (SCE, Nl)Collective Clothing Care (CC)

Community interaction Sharing resources, products, and services Scale economies possible Inversion of “individualistic values”

CARE SOCIALISING

HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

The "care socialising” DOSs are based on a certain level of community life, of collective resources, of sharing of products and services.

The household opens to different levels of collective spaces dedicated to the fulfilment of certain domestic functions together with other households from the neighbourhood, (e.g. cooking and eating together, helping each other taking care and repairing clothes).

Other collective places are also dedicated to collective forms of work, (e.g. participation in a clothing care centre providing the complement of human work necessary to the process in exchange to the access to the service for the cleaning of the personal clothes).

The values are focussed on the community favouring typical collective notions such as:

-"the efficiency of the group", (e.g. sharing/exchanging clothes allow intensification of use, less waste and cutting costs);- the "feeling of belonging to a community", (e.g. sharing dinning table with neighbour; exchanging clothes…all with the symbolic value those actions involve); and,- the "personal investment in the building and management of common resources", (e.g. "community work" complementary to "paid work" as source of structure and identity for individuals).

Local and Green (SCE)My clothes, my eternal friends (CC, Nl,

Ge)Natural living (Sh, UK)

Lifestyle close to nature Reduced consumption Local accessible natural resources

High Care

HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

HIGH-CARE

On one hand the "high-care" scenario is based on a lifestyle in line with natural models. Daily rhythms adapt to the seasonal variations of natural daylight. Diet is based on food available in the householder’s region. Clothing is developed and cared for maximum durability. On the other hand, the DOSs require commitment from the household members in terms of:

- personal contribution to domestic tasks, (e.g. preparation of food from basic ingredients or repairing and cleaning of clothes); and,

- general eco-management of the household (e.g. adaptation of the isolation system of the house according to seasonal climate changes or management of the energy production systems).

In environmental terms, the "high-care" scenario is based above all on the drastic reduction of the household members’ expectations considering the possibilities and limits of the local natural resources. Consumption tends to be cut down (e.g. the wardrobe is restricted to a few pieces of clothes; food is limited to the varieties and species available in the region; consumption of energy for heating and lighting is limited to the possibilities of local production). Products and equipment are used intensively (e.g. architectural components allow reconfiguration of the living space according to seasonal climate changes; clothes are repaired and up-graded in order to optimise their life-time).

The various DOSs developed for each Functions do not show a strategy of implementation of the household "high-care" scenario but the apparent austerity

(WASHING SERVICE INCL.)

¤642

Soft Clothing Care (CC,It)Wearables (Sh, It)Edumation (Sh, Ge)High Tech Rural Garden SCE, Hu)

High involvement of household members

Highly sophisticated technical system

Soft Care

SOFT CARE

HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

A fifth cluster, less focalised and less rich in DOSs than the four former ones, describes a household DOS characterised both by a high attention/implication of the household members in the fulfilment of the domestic tasks and a highly sophisticated system assisting them in these tasks.

Clothing care is fulfilled as a succession of small interventions over the week, (e.g. ventilation of bad smell; soft low temperature cleaning; use of local stain remover), through a full range of dedicated appliances. Part of the food comes from local production in a high-tech greenhouse proposed as an evolution of the house garden. Short cuts in the domestic heating is compensated by sophisticated heating clothes.

As already stated the 'soft care" function DOSs provide characteristic examples but are not exclusive of this cluster and thus, the description of this vision will be less complete than the other ones.

In environmental terms, the aim of the "soft care" DOSs are to create a synergy/cross-fertilisation between on one hand, a lifestyle more aware and careful for the environment and on the other hand, the implementation of a technical infrastructure maximising the sustainability of the household. The energy control system allow the among of energy used to be visualised at any moment by each of the separated appliances of the household providing a feed-back mechanism on the household members patterns and raising awareness on activities with higher environmental impacts. The daily care of clothes is done with

High Tech Eating/ Robo kitchen/ intelligent cooking and storing (SCE)

Virtual shopping (SCE, UK)Easy Clothing Care (CC, It)Active House (Sh, Ge)

High tech equipment; automatic Little involvement by household members Eco-efficient equipment and technology

Easy Care

The "easy-care" household is characterised by high-tech equipment helping users in their daily life. The various tasks are fulfilled automatically or with very low personal involvement. Shopping is conducted virtually and delivered to the household. Automatic cookers quickly prepare food in the kitchen. Clothes have microchip labels which automatically provide cleaning information to clothing washing equipment. The home is fully equipped with intelligent appliances able to regulate the heating, control the lighting and optimise the fulfilment of the various household functions.

Behind this easy/automated domestic space, the environmental goal is to relate as much as possible the eco-efficient equipment and products to push the household members life-styles towards sustainability through rationalisation and optimisation of their behaviours. Intelligent kitchen storage equipment suggests the best methods to cook the available ingredients with the least environmental impact. A ‘dirt’ detector indicates automatically when it is time to clean each piece of clothing. An automatic energy control system works to match the limited amount of energy allocated to each household with the various requirements of the household members.

EASY CARE

HOUSEHOLD SCENARIO

TOO BAD FOR THE

WASHING !

Key success factors

1. Good stakeholder management: Involve stakeholders before, during, and

after workshops Involve them in assessment activities Create a follow-up perspective

2. Clear long term sustainability goals: Important that government act as goal-

setter Goals should be shared by stakeholders

Transitions

Persistent environmental problems require transitions

transitions are social transformation processes

they involve simultaneous changes in technology, economy, socio-cultural systems, and institutions

government should develop transition management

Transitions: CO2 neutral energy

2000 2030

Fossileenergy

CO2 neutral

Clean fossileincl. CO2

sequestration

Windparkon sea

Biofuel outof wast

Infrastructurefor hydrogen

Storage of heat;use of heat pumpsPower-heat

coupling atdomestic scale

PV parkson land

Transition management: characteristics

Long term thinking multi-domain and multi-actor steering on learning processes system innovation keep many options open

Transition management

2000 2030

Situation A

Situation B

Variation

niche 1

niche 2

learning

learning

Selectionwinners?losers?

Initiation Acceleration Stabilisation

Transition

kaders voor duurzaamheid

Goede bereikbaarheidvan economische en sociale bestemmingen

Veiligvoor mensen in en om het mobiliteitssysteem

Near-zero emissieszonder negatieve effecten voor mens en milieu

Ruimtelijke kwaliteitgeen groter ruimtebeslag van mobiliteit

Uitstekende leefomgevingruimte in woonwijken voor de bewoners, m.n. kinderen.

Zekerheid van energievoorziening

Een cyclische aanpak van transitie, bezien vanuit de overheid

Toekomstschets 1

Toekomstschets 2

Toekomstschets 3

Toekomstschets 4

Toekomstschets 5

Kader: N

ear Zero E

mission

Kader: B

ereikbaar

Kader: …

.

Duurzame Toekomstschets 2



Robuust KT en LT beleid

Beleidsstrategie A

Beleidsstrategie B

Beleidsstrategie C

2002 2010 2020 2030

Robuuste LT beleidsstrategie

Synthese beleids-

strategieën

Back-castin

g

Discussie

Signaal vanuit de overheid

Bedrijven

Politiek

Burgers

Wetenschap

Overheid

Reg. overheden

EU / EC

Lok. politiek

Confrontatie met KT beleid

Duurzaam

heidtoets: schetsen binnen

kaders ?

Transitie koppelen aan experimenten en initiatieven

Naar duurzame energieketensAandrijftechnologieën, brandstoffen en primaire energiebronnen

Van modaliteitaanbod naar mobiliteitsdienstendeur-tot-deur diensten, koppeling van modaliteiten

Intelligente voertuigen op het hoofdwegennetVan ‘slimme’ cruise control tot automatische voertuiggeleiding

Ruimtebeslag in de lokale omgevingParkeren op afstand, Jolly Jumper, Smart-torens

Besluitvormingsproces voor Transitie Duurzame Mobiliteit

Nov 2002. 2003.Mei-Aug 2002

V&W

EZ

VROM

Extern

consultatieronde

Proloog

ondernemers, consumenten, kennis, burgers,overheid

Business- plan

activiteitenmensenmiddelen

besluitvorming

MinisterGO /GO /

NO GONO GO

Conclusies: Maatschappelijke sturing?

Sturing interactief en bottom-up (netwerksturing)

Overheid geeft richting door lange termijn doelen en door facilitering

Overheid treedt op als trustee voor duurzaamheid en toekomstige generaties

Overheid moet wel zichzelf hervormen Internationale aanpak noodzakelijk

Kritische kanttekeningen Kan de overheid haar rol als regulator en

als transitiemanager scheiden? Wat weten we eigenlijk van transities en

van stuurbaarheid van technologische ontwikkelingen?

Willen maatschappelijke actoren (bedrijfsleven, consumenten, overheden) uiteindelijk korte termijnbelangen laten prevaleren?

Hoe geloofwaardig is de overheid op langere termijn?

Verder onderzoek In het kader van ICES-KIS-3 is een

netwerk opgericht: Kennisnetwerk Systeeminnovaties.

Dit kennisnetwerk bereidt momenteel een voorstel voor

In dit voorstel wordt o.m. dieper ingegaan op ‘governance’ voor transitieprocessen

Bounded Socio-Technical Experiments (BSTE) In a recent paper, Halina Brown et al. coined

the term ‘BSTE’ A BSTE is ,…an attempt to introduce a new

technology on a scale bounded in space and time…’

‘…carried out by a coalition of actors…’ …It is recognizable as an experiment …It encompasses learning by doing, doing by

learning, trying out new strategies, and continuous course correction

….It is driven by a long-term vision

Questions?

…..Thank you for your attention

Weaver et al (2000) Sustainable Technology Development (Greenleaf Publishing Ltd)

www.sushouse.tudelft.nl [email protected] [email protected]

Duurzame Technologie eist sturing Lunchlezing Netwerk DO 11 dec 2002 Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt.

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Transcript of Duurzame Technologie eist sturing Lunchlezing Netwerk DO 11 dec 2002 Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt.