CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb...

38
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Transcript of CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb...

Page 1: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

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J/4&A jjmpuqEc JAW 05J38

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jjoqcrn bGL QØ3

CP!-A F!"J-H ADOL2&f! yjqguj

J{OGT4 C CGUP

2OfllFI KOJ�FV VI4D IVI/AVI41E211140 EMDOUEI1Ofl2 GJ{OffiIH Wi

148EK /AOKICB4G BYLEK 2EK1E2

Page 2: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

soio)I rbuo2 ni iftwotO 2uonoBobn3 gnitaoT

nw aT Luc insbsM itsioU Sano&4 .3 Jiodo51

nthJ nrnjy-id3 bus gnsY na}-I-usT 8O .oM ioqsc gnthoW JIHHM

VQQI 'taM LW VIO I1J .aoMJ3I

tnorntaovnl bns thsiT Isnoitsmotnl

TDMIT*1A

bns noioA rItuo2 io flsh Islotooa gniau aiaorltoq'çI cliwoia auonoaobno ant otsiJInvo oW

iotoaa nioso mofi atoubrnq 1o 'tai1av ant lo Iuaaom tooith £ riO 201101 IsoFiiqrno mO .nnwioT

lo tthsv St ui aanscIo iStSw taot oW .aboog Inrult 25 10 atuqrn otthbounotth as oinoa rico rloidw

tivitouboiq iotosl lEtot nil thwoia orb nitiw botslonoo am aoio2 ot ovitniol nswiaT iol atuqni oaonlt

oviisloi ui 2ognsnlo tsilt bnil oW .5010)1 01 ovitsloi niswisT lii boiuasom nins jotooa rioso nil (HT)

iii 'FIT no toollo tns3iinii2 bnis ovitiaoq £ avnnl (bsol s io s1 s ionltio as baiotno) '<tohsv touboiq

mbnoooa as vjhaaslo ow tnrlw ow aiotooa tnfia oaocft lo trio novo2 .aiotooa ftaotxia anTI lo tdgio

sobi alit 111 01 mooa oioloianlt bns atuqni bowioslunsm botsitnolo'fiib rio '1o oth tacit nil aohtaubni

aoo1uoaai Irnutan no '(1wsou1 oiom Iai tSt aoritaubni 'ismuiq orb nomA .nIJwo anonoobno lo

.oonabwo boxirn ornm bail ow

insbsM itsaioG sitanoo'FI .3 flodo2 noiaivifl ohaiT thnoisrruotnl aoxrnxoniooa lo tnonntmqoU

tsfl bFroW anT aivsu sinno1iLs3 lo ViaioviniU WMtootaH8I8I oIoaQA3ic1

LEIO 3U notniliasW SHHM bns gioinodbFuowinsbsnnb ubo.aivsbou@ntanooloi

nsiJ nsuY-iuID nsY nth-usl aoimonoo lo otuititanl tnionnqolovou oinnonoo3 iol lionwo3 noini2 simobsoA £ noitooa V8 ioofl rhO I ioqisT gnusAnnM bsoil ias3 gnbl-nzM

Q&eI I MAWIAT ioqicT wt.nbssoini2 .nooo.aseignisiJo MAWIAT

wt.vo.bqoo.nuagnsint

Page 3: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

noiiaubotnl .1

20151 rllwoig lo 'iiaiovib orb riislqxa ol a1obom rI1woi auonogohiio orb lo oaimoiq ouT

aaoull lo noilsoilairlqoa orb oliqaoU .bosilsholsm Ion ml oa aBrI omi1 bus aonIrnso3 220fl8

Ith-ilaubiii orb 1oI .aao3aua boxim rlliw lam ovsrl slsb 01 moth '(Iqqs ol alqmolls aIobom

r1lwoi woloE inoi1riovuioo orb lsth bougis ovsrl (&Q2 1) hoW him iomo5l wb1nsM aohlnuoo

.uIlwoi lo nol tnslqxo '(10135121 sa oliup s aobivrnq hs1iqB3 nsmurl 101 wolls ol bobnolxo 1obom

orb iorllio irk aouisth IsrIl :rl1wo auonoobrio lo laol l3olth owl aoaoqcuiq (daQQ1) aonoL

bluorla (U5l) lnomqolovoh him rlomoaol ol bolovob 2031150201 lo olsoa orb iii o olsI lriomlaovni

him .a.u ant iol slsb no baIaoLoi '1oviaioab ow aoaorl1oqr1 aaorb lo illofi .3181 illwoig sib 130116

thwo Io anoilsulsvo amsIrio3 (QQ I) xoornA bits oil 'd onmslov ouT .aokiInuo3 booimvbs ioiIIo

0ii5I ohiw £ 21 oioth noqsq oaorb iii novo him aohlnuo3 bosi1siilaubrii-'1won 01 boilqqs ahohom

1iso1T :18th obuhonoo ioornA him oil aonliwoo oaoth ni thwo lo 20311502 orb rio anoiniqo lo

havupoi od 111w jbwom lo alooqas oirnonooooioirn orb no '(hhsiooqao 43150201 oiom Itoh 1so £

airiT •R .q) Thoolaiobnu how thclsnoasoi ow aiuaoo u1Iwoi biqrn nloiulw 'd aounovs sill siolod

.nllwoia b alnsninrrioloh orb lo laol boasd-oioim ono lnoaoiq Iliw oqsq

oil lsrb ovilsnniolls its 1aoua (dsQ21) aonol alobom thwoI auonoohrro sill rxil3opi

lo lrromqolovob orb ol oub 2115330 thwox noiisIuurno1 akb itT .n1Iwoi 'auonoobno-imoC 21183

bits (0221) iomo5l 10 alobom orb iii as eauuriil 8nblooh-bwwiol 'd aluqni olsibourriolni won

lo oouioads orb ii thwoia olsla-'bsola o1sIono ol iobio itT (1Q21) nsmq!oH but iismaaoif)

won m1soio lo alaoo UôI onli Isnll iioilqmuaas orb no boiloi aionllus oaoull 2o2soI3ni Inornwobno

•aentnuoo nsiaA JasB silt noms O3flOffIOVfiO3 lznoiiibffoo lol hoqqtn abnil (tQQI) n'oT burn sbwliA sIqmsxe io silt lo uliwoig biqni silt Jsth aOLJgIS (QQl) 'clisianH aseisriw ,iol bslloitnoo ai aiioqxe lo asmila gnimllth silt 53110

florniqo k eoneisllib ajult samoo 10 .afloiaaelgs-1 sonsgIoVnoo 'çunuoo-aaoio yd mi beinnooon ton ai ThislJ" nsiaA supinu ai aonolxsqXs thwoig nniaA silt lofbarIw no awoiv lo sonsiovib isbiw rloum s alosfloi noitasup wonsif sno no

.(IsQQI) n&nguO{ bits (EQQI) AnaH bFioW sill sisqmoo :1!a In

Page 4: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

noiIqmuas airiT .aluqrii rii1aixo 1o iodmuu orlI ol \ohiocioick c\nsitü 51S anrqff! olsiborrnolui

orb oasoioui Iliw (kZM ol bolovob aooiuoai o oIso oril ui oasoiorn us Isril tlijaoi orb ol absol

Ilila alaoo (kZM orb 1doiorlw ovilsniolls ns a1aoua oH .aloo[5i aouol 16r11 lluaoi £ ;olsi rbwoi

Io 1oo11o o!soa orb oas3 aith iii .oosq iowola s Is lud bo1uovui ois aluqni oiocn noiiw onilaob

WOfi lo luomqolovob orb ol oub aluoQo Ilila rbwoi r1uorb oahs Ion aoob olsi rbwcn orb no U2i1

ri1wo bus (aluqluo won io) aluqni olsiborrnolui won noowlod Ariil airb ai ii .aluqrii olsibonnolni

.oqsq glib ff1 last usda ow Isib

rbuoa tcfi slsb Inolooa niau lobom r1lwo Thuonoobuo-irnoa" orb olsulsvo Iliw oW

mofi atoubo-iq lo tlohsv orb lo omasom lootib £ ff0 aoiloi tow Isoiiiqrrro iuO .riswisT bus soioA

iotborlw laol lisria oW .aboo mull as io aluqni olsiborrriolui as o'noa neo rloirlw io1ooa rioso

oril ibiw bo1s1onoo 515 soioA ol ovilsisi rrswisT tol a1uqui oaorb lo 1Ioiisv orb ni aonsrfo

01 ovilsloi uswisT ui boinasom iH55 io1ooa rioso iii (PIT) liviloubcnq tolosl idol ni rbwaia

ai Ii bus 41woi auonoobno-irrxoC lo laol 1ootib laom out ai aitil Isril au ol arriooa II .soiol){

.oiolod bolnorriolqrrii riood Ion asri Ii r1w guiAas ithow

lo oiuasorri Iouilarroo ol 'osaa000n slsb o1soasath orb Isill od ol ainooa iowans oHT

how 10ff 21 ffoilotnlauoo lo borborn orb isrb aqsrhoq oals bus !nisldo ol lluoillib ai '(losY loubrnq

ea 311 nhobuu us tol losxo ai ow lisria ow 'Oohsv loubcnq to oiuasom oriT .boo1aiobnu

ai bus jtQQ I) noau±sM bus niiano&T bus (I2Q I) silauo&1 ul bodiioaob as noilonul iolsgoiggs

nswisT bits srno){ rbuo2 mall 1ohsv louboiq omasom 01 boau slsb anT .S ff011302 ni bowoivoi

d bosililu oath as !aolsla bolinlJ orb 01 aohlnuoo oaorb mofi atioqxo ols3oisaib orb om

od bluow ai oIiHW .E uoilooa ni bodiioaob &is bus (VQQl) 3nsY bus nolllmsH silauooq

brioiofflua s Is oldslisvs Ion ai Ii aoitlnuoo oaorb moil slsb uobouboiq Isnoilsu ow ol oldsioloiq

aliaS mofi uolsl ois soioA rbuoa iol 1(Iiviloubolq o1osl Islol no slsb ofiT .!ovol o1s3oisath

Page 5: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

ois 1oth oioH .aoitaubni £?i Ic Ionsq £ iotl CFIT iatnlauoo oHw (VQQl4QQ!) iusbsM bus (EQQI)

nsiJ mofi 110)154 uswisT id slsb iviiouboiq orb rloism at aioiooa uooixig oflü boisis .RQQI) usiJ bris uoanogiol bus (Q8QI)

qiilauoiisloi orb os'iscm ow * flOi 302 ff1 ao3woa sisb otsisqaib ioclin oaorb Euiau

orb aaons (FI1') iviiaubrnq icioth Islet ni rIiwoi out bits 'loiisv ioubciq ni aorisrIa rioowlod

-imoa orb ci floqqua buol ailuaoi mO .1 QQ I -VQ1 movo 2104302 rioolxia in eaorliffuoo owi

5 1011410 25 boiolrio) '(iohsv iouboiq ow sloi flu ao8ffsrIo isdi bull oW .alobom rbwcm auorioobflo

uovoa .2101302 riooixia orb Ic lrlgio ni ¶IT ff0 130110 insoiuiugia bits ovitiaoq s ovsrl (bsol 5 10 gsl

no '1oi oth isdI ni aoimiaubni isbuoooa 25 'uiaasIo ow isulw om aloiooa lrlgio oaodt lo luo

.rltwoig wonogobuo lo sobi orb til ci rrxooa oioloioult bus aiuqui bowiosluuam boisitnomollib

boxim otnip buff ow ao3muoao1 Isiuisn no '(livsorl omom 'Ioi isdi aoiiiaubui 'msmhq orb guomA

Ic ovilsgon oviiiaoq od uso '(livi ouboiq bus 'ioiisv iouboiq uoowiod noitsI5nco orb :oonobivo

noilsI5noo oviflaoq £ bull at ilsI ow o-iorlw aoimiaubni 'isbnoooa owl 'Ino oms oiorlT .iusoxliugiarn

noitstioqaursit bus alouboiq Isoiitoolo ois oaoth bus iiviloubcmq bris 'cioimnv iouboiq noowiod

.Iovol s oisgoiggs colts bomasom od sm doirlw lnomqiupo

noowiod Anil orb iol noiismmilnco Ic ooigob omoa obivomq auoi OIO1 Ismoiooa orb !rrnia ru

Ols aoldsiisv owl oaorli oausood gffiancpua omom orb us ai rhirlw tivilouboIq bus 'ioimv ioubomq

ci oith ffoiislotioo Ic yiilidiaaoq cu ai oiorb oa 4oa slsb iuoiollib Ioto1qrnoo mci! bonistdc

bovmoaoiq om ailuaot oaorlT .aoldshsv oimouoooonsm gcms oaiis irlgim as abuomi uornrrico

iootioqmi oi oub oisrla Isiiqso odl lo inomomasomaim oldiaacq orb iol PIT iootico ow uorlw

10 inoixo orb obuloui ow uorlw oath bus !(OQQI 88QI) lisH c1 bobuomrricoo-i as uoitoqmoo

lo uoitsoilqqs orb aauoath ow noitooa iii .aoldsimsv Icmtuoo as 104302 doso ff1 atioqxo 10 ahcqmi

.auoiaulonco mc lnoaoiq bus !aohiuuco nsiaA lasH media ot aborborn mc

Page 6: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

flshBV bubo,q niiuacsM

a3hsa-sffilT .M

aluqni olnthocrnolrii lo onn nianoioai cm no 'I51 12th alobom cftwrng auonogobrio silT

£ amuaas '(11ffroffo (E .qnrlo IQQI rmmqIaH him rmmaaoif) him !OQQI iomoM an doria)

ahuqni orb ils Inrb ai rioiisoililqmia 1soiloioorlt A .aluqni oaoril lovo boll ilob ifoilorlul rioiloubrnq

iIhu1 nuqni lo isthtnrn orb saso rloirlw iii '(I1nzñtJomma noilornil noiloubrnq sill lno

o!dnlqooonrw ai rioilqmuaas aith *iow Inaiiiqmo iii .'lohnv luods noilurrnohni orb ass Fmrrirrcua

loimv loubcnq lo oiuanam zrm him !alorllo cmrb inthoqmi siorn ad '(nifi aluqrn omoa oaXJSOOd

cm won bluonla (IQQ 1) noau*mM him nitano&I him (IxQQ I) nI1ania&:I .hnuooos cliii airil sti bluonla

noclw nova noiloniul noilouboiq 21) n ml boloflanoo ad smo loiwv ioubo-cq lo iuanom lonxo

.al!uao oaorb nniwoivo d niod ow him \(IInoitomm(a-non olno aluqni orb

Iliw ow nioilooa ainil nil .1 him a c1 hobnob noibn'noado lo abirw owl obianoo 111w oW

owl an mar11 bnoib Iliw noibosa Ixon orb iii bud orrnb iii abnioq oviaaaaoua an macb lo tinib

:nioibonul noiboubrnq orb d niovi ai I bohoq rn y buqluo Inch oaoqqu2 .aonbniuoo

in —i \ — '\1J jixin 3x1 —

j131

lo boa onib him 4 boiioq nil buqnii 10 '(bibrmup orb ai 1x noibubibadua lo Vioibanlo ai l<o slorlw

norh ,M iluo'idi I boiodmuni om alugni antI Ii o1qmnxo .I 'd hobnob al oldnlinvn abuqnii

:ai lo bunu sno gmouboiq lo laoo gnibnoqaorxoa anT { I } =11

Page 7: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

(r-l&

() O•;qjd =(jLjq)o I3I

.I si afliqrn orb lo aoonq orb 5th jq siorlw

ffiwoi orb noowiod oonsiolIib orb as (PIT) livilouboiq iolosl Inlol onflob ow !Isuau aA

ni onEd3 orb ai zobni tuqni ifs lo oiuaoom nommoo A .aluqni orb 10 xobni irs him luqluo lo

Iliw oW 1x1q = otorlw xobni oohq )uqni its 'd boisflob (33\3J) oiuthnoqxo isnimon

!2udT .oldnlisvs aluqni 10 ba iii orrsrIo rts rthonai d boloirilanoa ai ro1s11ob nib Jsrb oaoqqua

ltJqni orb iub oaoqqua 111w ow aboiioq tbod 01 nomrnoo abooa 10 boa odb obonob 31n21=I gnilboI

s1umio1 (ÔVQI) sirisv-(ÔVQ!) obsB orb 'd novi ai xobni oohq

(sE) (I)iW(2q\ 1q)JI 13k

as x1q (I)jko aoisda oiubibnoqxo 0db mail boboinianoo sm (I)kw abrigiow orb oiodw

13k

(dE) (u)ai° - (I)o \ (I);o - (Thio

(I).w cjI)21on1

— 11onl)13 \KU)onl—W1jonl)

him o aoriscla omlibnoqxo orb lo nsom 3irnrhFmo1 £ ai (dE) lo 1r1h orb no iolnomun odT

01 mica (I)w 1r1iow odb bsdl aourano iobsnimonob oriT .aouisv owl oaodb noowbod aoil bits o airiT .(8jq\jjq) aoith oonq orb 10 nsom onbomoo £ ylqmia ai zobni sihsV-obs2 orb bulb oa '(3inu

4nslanoz bloc! iii a)uqni lo onn orb noilw () ni noi)ornñ )aoa-binu JD 0db iol tim 2! xobni

Page 8: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

:awollol as boililqmia 3d ff63 rioidw (,xq!xc2q)Q - (' \ I)nI = qIT xobni

( ajH \ ml (Ljxvjqxq)) a)

I = (I— o)

ffiSllfflf1I1T1 taoo 316 1X bits ax atuqiti silt tnrlt bobivolq isilt gninssm

.'Iovitosqaai 3q bus aI aoonq silt iol

:td boluafism ai atuqni stsibsnristni iol xsbrn 'tflrisup silt xsbni soi-iq airlt lo S2U

- =(1xq2x2q)Q

tuqiti aiffi bits tuqtuo 10 iliwom silt noswtsd sonss11ib silt as bsffilob ai tivitoubrnq iotosl IsloT

(1)

as bsnflsb 21 (tonsv tuqiti iii s3rIsrla silt sisi!w

(V) ni = J2SIAVA

bsnistdo ai () situ slirlw aiuqth 101 xsbni titnsup silt lo noitinilsb silt mon awollol (fl sriiJ

mon awoilol riorlt (ó) sniJ .a boFisq 101 '1isiimia bits eI0q)aj=jH ai siutibnsqxs ttJqffi sausood

.(V) iii ytsuisv touboiq lo noitinilsb silt rltiw (I rioitiaoqoi hQQI) sitariss

(2Iq)o\ (L3)o)111 = (It3xvjqcxq) )

Page 9: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

V

slonob him gniwo 21 2luqn! lo 152 sill 51511w sass sill Isbiaflos l1uas1 airlt lSlCflslfli oT

aluqin lo Isa nommos sill nsdT .2V1 c 1M rlliw !{jM. .

.4 }=jI bus {aM. I }=j tcl aba sasill

bosaxo 111w iolffismun silT .linu 21(V) lo ioisnimonsb sill him I=I al aboiisq nbc! ru bsilqque

sill loIns aluqrn us 51011w sass sill nil .bsassisni asnl tlshsv lsuboiq ltill 3rnlsaIhn! linu

ai luqni class no siulibnsqxs usd1 =s u1ss1ilomma anoilarnil laoa-linu him noilsuboiq

10 isdmun sill ni ilbwoi sill nilos1isi ,

I <2M\ 3M 'lqmia ai(V) if! iolismun sill him 1soilnsbi

as tsinlanos ol skliaaoq Ilila ai Ii Isill awoila (V) noitqmuaaB '1lsIrnn'(a sill luodliw nsvd .aluqni

lo 51JJ2Esm aicll lsth osa sw j) mon nsrlT .sass dD sill ioi (lsiisv lsubrnq lo rnuassm lssxs

•qIT rlliw bslslsrios al lshsv lsuboiq

won nsswlscl noilulilacina lo osmsb sill alosflsi ( I -o)\l jô) ni 2AV no Insioffisos silT

m1aixs mon bslsilnaisftib siom sin aluqal won sill noclw isiliil ai bun 2luqnii uilaixs bus

awoila ilsiilw ,

I siuF1 iii bolsilaulli ai 'livilsuboiq no luqni won s!nia £ Ic lssqmi silT .asno

aiicn sill ilsuol alrmupoai sasill ,

Icn iltiW .( 1) ni noilanul noilsuboiq eaa sill id alnsupoai sill

Islol s illiw lsill oa s1ds1isvs ai ix (Ino Isill saoqqua zHsilinI .'lunuuni 10 015S lo sqola illiw

luqluO .A Is uwoila Inuoms sill sasilsiuq bluow rniil sill ,

HA snil sill 'd bslsilaulli siulibnsqxs

sill siulibnsqxs lo Isvsl smsa sill Is nsill oIds1isvs oals ai Lx luqni bnossa sill nsilW .

nsill ax

ssm8 . luqluo lo lsvsl isilid sill nisldo bus D lnioq sill Is aluqni owl sill sill ass miii

niaiilw lo sbulinsm sill ,

( j\\() cilsi sill Isups 1qrnia 111w PIT bsnsils Ion asil siulibnsqxs

.n lo suit', sill 10 alcwupoai sill lo tlixsvnos lo smash sill no abnoqsb

mo Isill anilon iltiow 2111 2luqm wsn Ic 52S0 sill no bs2usol ut 02 svsil ow sliilW

.6 as (I) lsiqisln.isi ow Isill saoqqua rail Isbom oT .aluqluo won ci how 'dilsups asilqqs aiaylscw

Page 10: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

8

lo ornsom islsoa orb him 3x aoitoi'isv tuqtuo lo iotoo', orb aoowtod rxoitornil aoitsrrnolarisit

iol mill oa O>o lo ou1sv iobianoo ow saso airb aT tuqtuo oorlt oouboiq ot boboon oowoaoi

boisitaulli ai Lx has ix atuqtuo orb nsswtod onus rioiismiolarmit orit aosrnoaoi lo loyal novi S

bluow nobsuboiq rioth omtss1unsm ot oldiasol ai jx tuqtuo twifl silt 'lno 'Hthtirii II . siugil

briossa silt noilt 11 HA sail 1ohud orb 'd botnoaoiqoi ai rioilsuhcnq b oulsv orb has 4 ts irroso

I) trrioq ol avorn hluow noitsuboiq aosiuoasi lo lovol orrisa orb iltiw oIdiaso1 aomosod x tuqtuo

52.53 airb nI .boasrnorii liso1s asil (onul tohud silt d botnsaoiqsi) ifor suboiq lo oulsv' orb has

ni rltwrna orb aoI tuqtuo tsoi iii rItwo out ai tsdt (1) lo n orb as honilob od bluorla FTT

risiriw qqT ni iltwo s 1qmi bluow aoitonsv tuqtuo lo rioiarisqxo orb norlT . tuqai isissa silt

osuia O c (l-o)\HAVt- = TIT :(V) iii 1simv tuqluo lo siuasocn orb dtiw botsiorros '(Ioaio5iq ai

.atuqtuo won orb ot oil!) OCSJA YEs has ON)

ja jq .at

isnsv tsuboiq iii asgnsils lo oiuasom s 3niqolovob is bsrriis asw ovods aoiaausaih mO

ytoi-mv tsuboiq lo lays! orb oisqmoo ot tnstioqmi yfisupo od ass Ii tuH omit isvo aoilqqs tsrit

riovio) .mso riovi 'ens ai nswisT him sooA iltuoS aaoias slqrrxsxo mob asi-itauos aaons

nsa ovocis atluasi muo atuqtuo iisrb no has aoiitriuoo aaomos bow atuqm silt rio sisb sldsisqmoo

iii ffoitoaul noit3ubomq ant tsrb oaoqqua aurlT .rroarrsqmoa lsnoitooa-aaois s as botoiqmstnii-oi od

rmwisT nil 'x1aubni omsa orb mo (a d botoriob) ymtaubni nsomoA rbuoa s morbio ot asilqqs (1)

oaonswisT orb lo lovol tivitsubrnq ovilsisqmoo orb atnoaomqoi (ô) iii 12P1T riorlT (t 'cd botonob)

ovilsmqmoo orb 1301101 bluow (V) iii omasom 'toiisv iaubcnq silT .-'çilaubni nsomo){ sib ot ovitsiom

Page 11: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

2

iii (ioi1sv lo loni iorlgid 1ovils1oi A .5310)1 ci ovilsisi riswisT iii 'toimv tuqtiso lo fliqrn

.'(xtnuo3 lath iti tivitoubrnq 10 lovol iodii1 £ '1qmi bluow oIqmsxo lol riswisT

\)tw aorrlnuoo aaoae (ionsv toubcnq iii onsr1o 10 loyal orb omqmoo ol irisw oals Iliw oW

as I aboog norrimoo lo ba orb oaoorl3 bluoria ow xobrii \(toimv IsnoitQoa-aaolo orb io .omh iovo

ow xobni aoiloa-omit 5 101 md iso' 'ris iii ytriuoa rioso td boilqqua toubolq lo itoi ooaloirn orb

owl iovo 'xtnuoo o1rHa 'ens c1 boilqqua aboubrnq lo noi ooaloim orb as I ba orb oaoorb bluorla

\o st as I ba orb ni(1i3oqa id ff01131113 oaodb rbod tlaitsa Iliw oW .aiso' ariinioibs

&tom aith '(Iiooqa aT .nSmc( tütüoijm owl ni tuwñs7T \Mm ioA iAloc\ c\ %l3tho1cl

to! nodT .aanlriuoo aiIm otoriob Ilima I bits a oliriw r 'd aso' orb abonob an to! yllsnno1

oliilw T 1so' iii 5010)1 bits nswisT dIod 'd boilqqua aboo Ic boa orb oboriob a' n 3I E

anT .aoiimnuoo orb rbod aaoios t bris 1-a' a1so' rltod ni abooR nornrnoa orli aobonob I _I I

:as boaaolqxo 3d noth nsa s510)I rliuoa ol ovuslol riswisT ifi 'toimv iauboiq 01 onsdo

_flxf_.1q 1jxyfjq xJfq (Q\ 13i \ 1_I3i 13i \

r — it1 iii _2jx_,2jq \ _,2pc_1q xjq_ \ xq

13i \ 131 \ I3i

-aaoia orb rioowiod oarioiollib orb as bowoiv od nsa boiisv taubolq ovimsIol nil onsrla aidT

oanoiollib orb as lovitsmomls 10 • I-i' bits ' amo iii boiuqmoo aoxobni '(bohsv louboiq Isnoimaoa

lo boa orb as nol o2 .soloA bits nswisT iol 1oiisv iaubolq ni onsrIa aonoa-oirnb orb noowbod

aoiitnuoa nlbod iii boaubolq aboo lo noibaowiobrii orb as noaorla 'lmnomaianoa ai I abooa nornimoo

onsrIa orb aoluasom (8) noiaaolqxd .bnolsviupo 015 anoitsmoicpomni oaonlm norli aiso' tiled aaons

lo bnsriinrnobob Isimrioboq s as oAsb 111w ow if ainlw soioA 01 ovilsloi niswisT iii 1ahsv loubolq ni

.aontnuoa owl orb aaoos ytivitauboiq iobosl Isbob 1o nItwoi orb

Page 12: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

0!

nounupa gfutafnuaa bns nlnU £

.2.TJ ats 1gBa1b oau 111w ow riswisT huE EsloA rbuoE lo 'loiisv touboiq orb tasilnoo oT

oaorb 1° '3ansv Iouhrnq orb nhuasom ad Iliw ow ai tsrlT .1QQ1-VQ1 iol aoiiaxtsta tioqmi

Isitaubrii ow bsotwi 03 oldnoloiq od Linow iT .'LU i\i ot thoxs iarlt no £iBb niau aoritciuoo

(an 03) oldslisvs ton oisatsb doua md 1aFmv luqni oiuaoam ol 'itnuoo rioso iol stnb rroitoubrnq

noitsnhaoh taoaml out ai .a.U orb oonia LEmsh obsii orb as noi1soiasaib lo loyal ornsa orb Is

atioqxo oaorrcwisT lo J'O1 him ahoqxo rmoioA Ic &?OE norb mom) aohtriuoo rbod id to*mm

amutsol orb 3301151 bluorla to*ism airit ni aoonsrrnoboq iiorlt (absoob laid orb ni .a.u orb otni orriso

toimv tonboiq omasom ot stsb tioqxo lo ow mo aa,1orlriovoM .Ilaw otiup noiloubcnq uorli lo

.anoilslimil 'oA owl ann

aohtnuoo istko ot oldslisvs olqionhq ni am 'çitniuoo ono mofi atuqni lo (to1mv orb !twlR

toimv tioqxa orb '(Inc no bnoqob ton aoob 'itnuoo rioso ni '(liviloubrnq tsrll oa ohst nlauoidl

au lo \li moil aoitoimv tioqxo lo xiitsm orb no bnoqob oath bluow Ii :'itnuoo ornna out mofi

Iliw bus jovoworl aoac1niI oaorb rl3uoirb oosit ol smb orb ovsrl ton oh oW .aiorthzq nibst

oviusloi iionll no soioA uliuoa bris nswisT moil '(lohsv t-ioqxo ovimsloi orb otsloiioo '(Iqmia

ai aooiuoa iorbo moil 'ilnuoo rloso ol oldslisvs aiuqni otsiborrnotni out RnhonI .aoitivilouboiq

Cnjosrnqqs mo lo noitstirnil s '(hsolo

ai ii omolod omit omoa ott sm ii '(11soitaornoL botsmo ai tuqm won S moth nova ebnoooa

md tivitouboiq no tosqmi olsibommi us anti tuqni won orb II .aotst8 botinlJ orb ci boimoqxo

obnfl is noitso13na!b lo lovol oruna oil in boioolloo ai 'ffnuoo 'cnn iol nint) afJafloo lnhiwbni tnth otdiaaoq aliT S llba hluow ii eSifib tioqnti 211 oth niau ascii 10±52 .'1Lnunnn bsioolloo 'l1nonsg ion ai ninb auanrno iud aoi1aiinia oingoigzaib li1gir! orb no oldnlinvn 313W 1111 dose mon nieb noqxe ebiw-bFiow 3± san ox oldnielsiq

ol sub ai ninb hoqmi .B.U sill lo oau isO .aoiflriuoo aaoios 'nhidnxnqmoo gniwolln !mota'a tflbocrirnoo bosinorrnnd .@QQI) niianoo9 cii bodhoaob an ,ninb aith lo tiIidiaaooon ybnoi orb

(atuqluo lo aoiioñsv orb ganuasom an 'ioFisv iouboiq lo sisanern iso leiqisiru ow bnoiani Ii bnnr! io±o orb nO .etnhqoiqqn olom aniooa 'oinuoo niono mofi '1onnv iouboiq orb gni-iuanom oi aovtoaiuo gniiohtaoi asS

Page 13: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

11

toubrnq orb rbiw baiBIatioo ad 111w tiviioubrnq iBrb ansom airb !bofloqxo ai Ii otdtod s! 5 21 oiorlt

Ilonsv toubrnq lo aoulsv bs\ iobiarioa bluork ow abiow toilto itT .si\x\ tü tioqxo lo Itaiisv

aoAst fi tud 1tiup botioqxo al iuqni won orb Ii '1oatovnoD .tivitoubotq k tnsnirrnotob S as

1o aoulsv rs\ taoqxo bluow ow ciorb tivitouboiq oanouflni ot oansisoqqs aM to1 omit omoa

otni nolst ad nsa anoiisiobianoa oaorlT .ytivitaubotq o tnsrnmiotob s 3d ot 'tohsv Jouboiq

bris tohsv toubrnq lo s1 io absol orb noowiod gnimit lo rnottsq oldixoll 5 itiwo11s '(d tnuooos

.itosupo riitsmitao tLfO 03111 siutointa aiifi ooubottm 111w oW .'1ivi3oubotq

bits 'Oonsv louboxq noowtod noitslot out otsulsvo 03 oau 111w ow aontaubm silT

!.au orb ni aohtaubm noitsoiIiaaslD Ishlaubitl btsbnst8 tiib-owt orb a) mfimia 015 wi3oubotq

bobivib ovsd oW .aiodmun DR dod rbiw rIo1s I oldsT iii botail ots bits cnuo1oi3oq mbu1oxo

tnsom ots alouboiq 'çizmhq ailT .atouboiq 'mbnooaa bits vjsmhqlo aquoi bsotd owi olni oaoth

'çxsbrtoooa silT .atuqni otsiborrna3ni as aooIuoaoi Isiutsrt bo3sitnoioflib-non 'Inism ow ot

xolqmoo otom ad oath bits atuqni bomtosturism bits alsi-iotsm win dod ow ot insom om atoubrnq

bits ioqsq :as dana aa2sa auougxdms omoa '1auoivdo 0Th otoilT .aaoooiq noitauboiq norb iii

iotooa 'rsbnoooa bits (ô D12) ioqsq bits qluq iotooa xsmhq orb dod 2obuloiti rlairlw nitnhq

ovsrl ow rlairlw e(8 DIE) aoitaslq bits alsoimorlo oals bits ;(V DR) nirlai1duq bits nitnhq

orb alirIW .atauboiq 'ismhq omoa aobulani 3i r1uorIt iotaoa s as boiIiaaslo

Itifoau ad Iliw 31 isi1idis isdwomoa al aahiaubrn 'isbnoaoa bits ismhq noowlod itodsailiaasla

-linaC lo aiaorboq'(rl orb taoqxo bluow ow ts1uothsq itT .atluaoi tuo oxhsmmua cxl \sw s as

.aohtaubm 'ismhq ant nsrb tsbnoaoa orb ot otom '1qqs ot dtwox 'auoitoobito

aoilibommoa rIaiuititaib aailaitsta ttoqmi 8U orb 88Q!-VQI o1 stsb orb ot nimuT

(A81JT) aotst2 botinU silt lo aluborlaa llhsT tigib-V iou ot gitthiooos 'itnuoa nasa mofi

boiIiaaslo ais aoitibommoa orb aisot totsl tol 155( rlaso OOOOI tovo todirtuit Isrlt aiodmuit

Page 14: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

£1

Ic iodmuri iogml s nova aar1aiuriilaib miii (EH) mala'2 bosinorrnsH ii3ib-O1 orb ci anibicoos

'(d hobnob) nawisT mon ahoqmi .8JJ lo 'ioiwv iouboiq ad3 oluasom ci iobio iii .eoiiibomrnoo

ni iso' iloso iol tiohsv ioubciq Ic aoxobnii iotriianoo ow (a tcf hobnob) soic){ rlino2 ci oviisloi (I

(iaimv louhciq lo \cts\ ogsiovs orb tioqoi ow I oldsT lo nmuloo laift arli iii .bohoq o!qrnsa inc

Isncniooa-aaoio s an boioiniarioo ai rloirlw soioA rliuo2 ci ovilsloi nswisT iii IQQI-SVQI iovc

.(OOI 'd boilqiilum (V) .po ni as) xso' nioso idf aohinnsoo owl orli ni tiohsv ioubciq lo xobm

oW .(soioA) nswisT iii 'loimv ioubciq ionlairl oisoibni xobni auril id aoulsv (oviisaoni) oviiiacq

orb iltiw aoii3aubni Ic iodmuni s ni soicA nsrli 'ioiisv iotboiq 1035518 ann nswisT istli ooa

aonlaubrn iodbc Isiovoa bits 4nromqmpo rroiisncqansii bits alsiorn orascl Ic anctiqooxo Isqiorthq

boiioq amil bolirnil atom s iol bmsol iluaoi omsa orli arrnilnoo airlT .0131 won aoxobni ovsrl bulb

arli asw ii boobn1 t(VQQ1) nicllirnsll bits ansuH siiano&T iii aborliom inoiollib 'IirIaiIa 8iH2U bits

mdl inoiollib '1dsiuasom oiow aoninuoo oaorll mofi aticqxo Ic '(busy ioubciq orb miii nioiissilsoi

.'(buba trioaoiq oril idI noilsviiom orli bobivciq

bnoooa orb ni bits , I QQ I -EVQ I aomoood boiioq olqmsa mc aoonoiollib twill 8niAsi ioilA

aoiionsv ioibciq orb ni usi\a orb Ic bciioq aisli lovo ogsiovs orb iioqoi ow I oldsT lo nmuloo

'(lov!isloi orb oiiqaoU .(OOI d boilqiilurn bits (8) iii as bolotnianoo) soicA ci oviinloi nswisT id

ad (ISO (8) idI aotilsv iSO'(-di-1s0'( 0113 !Olqfflsa odi IOVO aoaiisdo 08510V5 020(13 iol aOUISV lisma

bus (8) ni as bolorrrtanioo 2O1lOflSV ionboiq ovi sloi ni oansrlo orb id sisb ouT .lsiinisiadtsa oinJp

ow sloi borlqsi ois rloiclw 8 I -E 201113iq ni aoriil borlasb odi 'd boinitaulli ow OOI yd boilqblnm

lii rMt'11s id aoulsv Isunrrn orb riled oisiiaulli oW .oiuaR rioso ni samoa ohia bnsrl-irlaii orb ci

!no bits I oldnT iii aiolooe liib-owl 3(11 ff5113 lovo! oineigsaib oiom n In 'iaSy iouboiq ouianem aicrilun oaoflT ed moI! gniaitc an neioA rItuo2 ol oviinloi nnwinT io 'lonnv louboiq ieino, ed etudinln 'orlT .889! -8V91 lol

boInieXni-'11noinev siom bits ioin1 chum anti neioN :aohlnuoo owl oth ni aquoi aaoniaud lo oluiQinte 3nnoiilb omooluo aiciT .aoflonsv Iouboiq io oitni iowonnn s no gniauooi '!lnowqqn em riohiw jtswinT and aquoig aaemaud

.(VQQI) not!imnH bns nnY nilanea iii hoqoleveb Iebom lsofloioeth edt mcii beloibolq 81

Page 15: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

£1

bslliila sasilt lo ow anT .bsol 5 10 sl £ as botihla aaulsv 011152 oaarlt aoaso arnoa iii baa (8)

.wolad boffislqxs od 111w aoulsv

Las (E2QI) slisS mon ristt 015 5010)1 iltuo2 1(11 'tivilouboiq 101351 Istot rio slob silT

bsssis am 'orb oloH .ashtaubrii £ lo lonsq s i61 PIT tolntaaO3 oilw (V2Q1ôQ2I) irishsM

Las (2821) nsiJ moil nsiot nswisT iol stth tivitoubrnq sill rlotsin 03 ai0l35a rIaotxia otni

(taivprnoT 10) slaiviG s as bomasom ai PIT asntmioo rltod -r&I .(a221) rrsiJ baa noanogiol

4uqm lo rltwom out lo snavs botrIiow 5 aunim tuqtuo lo dlwo to otsi silt lomsn xsLrii

silT .2155' owl orb iii atuqni silt no aslsda snitibrisqxo silt lo osisvs sm atrliow silt sisrlw

has iodsl e31O110 (ao1dst tuqtuo-tuqai orb mofi botsaois) thoo otsibomistru bshuloni atuqni

aoiituiuoo out lo doss iS! wr lo ultwoig onovs silt work ow I oldsT aT .lstiqso lo ahab! lsiovoa

'd orisuIs faunas rlaao bollqitlum ovarl ow soaairiovaoo iol sisrlw aoiitaubni niootxia silt isvo

orb nisswtsd ni& silt work ow jimuloo tasl orb aT .trlsoloq ni 5Th asisi rltwoi silt oa COOl

owt silt aaoos aotsi iltwoi silt lii sonsisilib airlT .ssi6>I rliuoe has riswisT iii stsi r1twoi PIT

sldsimv tnobnoqoh sill sd 111w has aAHT '(ci botoash ai r mo'(bns A vjttaubui clogs iol aorunuoo

8 lit aoiugfl iii sail biloa silt as bsilqsi ai oldsiisv tashneqob airlT .noitsupo gnitsmitao mo ni

.omuail rloso nil slsoa briarl-tlsI silt ot ovitslsm bomuassm al rloirlw

!25 '(tansy toubomq Las PH' aoowtod noitslsi silt otsrmtao usda oW

(2) + _1)j51AVLj + I 8msoYf1 + = JFTT

1821 silt lo tosqrai boismitao silt ai ] Las 1 '(itanibni uloso mol mist trislanoo 5 21 po omorlw

.asntauLai lo modmuff 5 iol tnsoi1inia sd 111w rloirlw !mslIob nswisT wsl4 silt 10 rioitsiooiqob

iii baisoft asw n ouiia '(lilidrna lo 2155'( lsisvsa islis ,1 8Q1 iii noilsiosiqsb sgml s nsgsd mllob rtswiaT waT4 silT asw Ii mill bnuol hid (Q) rti bifoim-eruit s gnibuloni bsisbianoo oals ow !oldrnmv-'(msnub audi ot noitibbs nI .8V91

Page 16: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

4"

bsa! io sI orb id bolau[bs —

aoiflnuoo owl or!) aoios tlohsv louboiq cñmXsi tü &ss& oil T

orb aaolos ¶flT lo M'ncn n miii orb i61 oldsimv as bow ai —

d botonob

iii noilsupo rliwoi Thuonaobrio-imo& orb rhlw lrra)aiarioo noilsoñiaoqa orb ai airlT .aoiflnuoo

lo hoi asia orb ai n oiarlw (1 -)\1 aisupa (ç )noioillooa orb isth ooa ow rloirlw rnoil (O)

iorltio griiau ritiw trromnoqxo Iliw oW ii vjlaubrii Hi a)uqni boisiinoiollth noowlod noitutilaclua

'c" merit ovods bougis as ooiita 'ioimv loubolq ovi sioi ni onsrIo orb 101 aoulsv bogsI io bsol

nibuIonI \(livitauboxq oonoullni ol atuqili won iol not) emil atouboiq floqxo ol nott omil oci

.lolqiolffi ol Iluofflib am alluaoi orb bits liisoni11oo-ilIum rioum oot aotsoia asI bits absol kThcX

mofi lo auisv (o1nia) laod orb loaloa ot noriolno rioilsrrnolrn oAidA orb ow llsria ow bsotanl

.{1Oj-S-} aoulsv Isurins orb rioms

H! 0iISd3 orb rlliw ¶11' lo olsi rllwo orb gniislonoo am ow (Q) ni tsrb baton od bluorla II

noasai mO .aoiflaubrii m'1qqua msotqu orb iii nsrlt iorbsi ilaubni ttwi orb Hi 'toimv touboiq

rii1qqua lnstioqmi taom orb !rbiw niIsob am ow loyal liib-owt out is (1) :blolowl ai airit iol

iotooa rioso Hi toimv touboiq ni aorrsrlo isrll oa aoiooa tigib-owt ornsa orb ni noilo om aohlaubni

looflai oats Iliw tlahsv touboiq ni aognsrlo (ii) ;iolooa lsth iii boau aluqni won toollol I)mq Iliw

oil) is noiaauoaib mo rnofl) ioiooa lsrb flu Iiviiouboiq rbiw botslonoo ad Iliw ilairlw a1uqluo wait

(PS nroilooa 10 bno

oril aaoios PIT oonouflrij bluow IsrIl nolosl iorbo ils 81301101 (9) Hi anal iono anT

.atiloiq oiuq bits noiflioqmoo loolioqmi lo oonoaoiq orb ai oaonll 10 onO .aorrtniuoo bns aoiitaubni

ad bfuow omnk istiqso orb atiloiq oiuq lo oonoaoiq orb ni (OQQI 88QI) lisH 'd bouam aA

ai PIT tsrb ilsooi airl1 aoa oT •PIT lo oiuasom orb asid yllsitnoloq oio1oiorb bits ebolstaiovo

aS no aioiia &mbnEta aS boiswol Ii nibu1oni arnrlw (aiouboiq ho&1) paubni ano '1no to! lnsoiinia .tosqmi olin! bsrt 021W13f110 md atnai3i'11303

Page 17: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

sift o sgsisvn bstdisw-sinrfa £ bus tuqluo ui iltwoi sift usswtsd son5lsIIib silt as bswassm

isvsrisrfw qqT no tsqmi us svstl I liw airft bststwisvo ai smif a !ntiqsr.) sift 11 .aluqni ni ffiwoi

llnH yd bsaoqoiq noitosTIoD sift auiIT .atuqrii isrfto silt moil stsi tnsisflih n is gniwoi al Intiqn3

iftwom sift bun Istigno lo rltwoia sift nsswtsd sonsis11th sift ai tsilt slcisimv £ ff0 PIT aasisI ot ai

.atuqni saoift isvo bsgsmvs 4uqfii oifto sift lo

woll6l llsif a ow an (88Q I) nsaists bus binclduH stiwomoU 'd bstaoua syitninstls nA

us as 'itaubni doss ni M'tcn', \s½cn ttss nwsc\ sill sau ol ai

sousisilib n an bsiuassm ai ifoiifw X 'cJ sfdnhnv aiuli stonsb Iliw oW .oaassi lnnoitibbs

:(8) lo tilh sill no bsbufoni ai bun sooM iftuo2 bun nswisT usswtsd

(01) S+ X8+ _MAVt'ç+I8insYQ+ A= JFIT

oitn taoo-sonq silt ai sisilw t(IjI) =A an bstoqistni ai jX ff0 stnmitas oi1iosqa-çitaubui sifT

ai ti souR auonsobns as bstssil sd ol abssn 'hssb X sldziisv sifT .'plaubni doss ni

niau bsisrnitao sd 1 11w (2) tnift oa ,

,(HT tointanos ot bsau slsb smna sift molt bstsintanos

silt bun fnuimon lsvsf nhjjtsshjnnm ui iftwcn sin bsau atusmmtani sifT .asldnhnv lntnsmintaui

s an lIsw as nnwinT bus nsioA iftuoa iol asaibni ssriq slnasfoifw lotosa uhmsn1uunm iii sgunifs

loituos lnuoitibbn uibu1oni iftiw tusmhsqxs linda ow jioitibbn iii .X lo sj.rlnv bsgnf

.ahoqxs bun arioqrrli to I svsl sift an ifona (2) ni aoldnnnv

silt niau iltiw bslnomhsqxs oafs oW .sisb Tn' sill as aeoiuoa sutsa silt mor1 bsnislclo o,ow atnominlani silT ovitsinolls as aolfft ogasd3xs lsnoitsn ni ognsrlo sill has niiutosuasm lb tol noilqmuanoo lftoisqqs lo illwoi

3g512-lnil sill iii lii s boos as sbivoiq ton ob '(sill duoth allua5I lbsvo mlimia ovs sasrlT .asldsiizv lslasuifleni has nio?i\o th\thcpS M\o MothsN zutZ sill mail smo3 asrxoa rioqxs bits lioqmi silT .anoiaaois,

ooa %IG S nswST sill

Page 18: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

a'

afluas$I nohsmilal .i

ioiooa doso no run (Q) noiaaoioi molt noiiotho noilamlolni slid/i orb aiioqoi £ oldsT

nohotho airiT .oldshsv 3oimv iouboiq orb tlo agl 10 absol mo'-owl 10 ono iobianoo ow oiorlw

lo aiodmun aniiollib iol lnuoaos ol noiaaoioi rloso molt alsubiaoi aolsupa lo mua oil alaujbs

nonotno airli boluqmoo ovsrl oW V0j00102 lobom idt aiaad s as bow od nso bits anoitsvioado

oiom ols ailuaoi ions! out ;IQQ1-VQI 1OVO oath burn 1QQ1-EVQ1 iovo nun arloiaaolaol 0111 iOI

m riibioooA .a1so Fiso sill ni aiolooa omoa 1oi 'FT ni alnomovom oilsTlo orb ot sub oldsla

ols ailuaoi islimia rluorIi olqmsa IQQI-aVQI sill oau ow al!uaoi niwo!!o1 us ban o!dsT

.aiso' ioilino orb obuloni ow nouiw bonisido

iii nworla ois 'çtiaubni doss 1(11 rionoino nojismiolni 0)115)1/i sill lo aoulsv muminirn suiT

iii :lusooo ion aoob aoulsv muminim oupinu s oiodw aohtaubni lsiovoa ots oiorlT £ oldsT ni blod

o bsol 1so(-owi £ 10 R' mo-owl s iorliio (111w bonisido ai muminim orb Ioisqqs bits anidlolo

s Is ai nonolno orb !lnomqiupo riotislioqarisit has aiouboiq omoiloolo iol oluiw ;'(ioilsv louboiq

ai tloFrnv touboiq oiodw aoaso sin aohlaubni iotisl silT .351 isoy-owl io ono o1ox s wI muminim

iol bsol 10 s! orb oaodo oW .wolod hoqoi Ilsula ow as \!vi ouboiq ol boisloinu Ithinoaao

norb has oldsT ni nworla nohotho rtoi simolni olidA sill aosimiurim isrb loimv louboiq

8.aoisupa lasol 'çxsnibio rlliw boismilas E o!dsT ni hut ni (Q) anoiaaoioi 'naubni oaorll tioqoi

Iouboiq ovhsloi ni o3nsrlo sill no jç inoioillooo sill ai C olcisT ni laoiolni lsqioniiq 10

lnoioillooo airlT .nmuloo bnoooa orb ni nwotla as soioA rltuoa bits anwisT noowiod toiisv

in aiuqrn hoisiinoiollib orb rioowlod ruotlunladna Ia tiloilaslo orb 21 jn oiorlw -o)\1 alsupo

oth ai 14 a1subiao b5mupa lo cnua adi ai 5l2 oiociw ,(14\N)+(M\M2a)n1 alsiips nonoino nOXJsIIflOIfli S)1iS)IA edT .alnstoillooo baismijas lo iscimun sift ai A has anoitsnsado o tedmun

Page 19: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

VI

nwoilB .tiuu usilt aao! od 111w ascii owi usrit iotsoi \(tioitaslo airlt 1o aoulsv ioT .1

0Q silt is oios molt tnaioIIib '1tiisoi1iriia SIS iili tnoi3flhoo alit lo asuisv us &m sosi-blod iii

aasl bus ovi iaoq ai J(lo oulsv silt aoaso silt lo trlis ni bns ashtaubni rloua su in sis siorlT .Iovol

lo bus svitqsn ai ( lo sulsv silt —

atoubrnq isritsol iot — sass ninismoI orio orb iii .iiuu ascii

atuqni bstsitusis11ib loscpcs ion bluow ow sioilw rca ai aiilT .sbutinsm sis1 tllsuauriu

ai '(txvitsubolq bus 'isiIsv toubolq nsswtod rlorlsloTloo ovitnasn orit bus !sonslsllib S 5)IsrrI ot

tsicpstui bluow sw — isa [slot silt lo IIsil-suo o —

ashtaubni tilis loilto silt aT .auohuqa \fltnobivo

o aiasrltoq'rl silt gnitioqqua as 'tivitouboiq bus toimv toubrnq noswtod noits!srioo svitiaoq orb

.rltwo auonsgobus-misa

'ctsnsv touboiq nsswtscl anoitslstioo tusoflinia bus oviliaoq ilhiw ashtaubni tilis orb O

amssa ti sisriw ashtaubni to quo silt uiiltiw ss moilt lo nsvoa tivitoubrnq bns

ni issqqs ashtaubni sasnb iol stsb anT .'(lqqs bluos illwo "auonoaobns-irnsa" tsili 1o)hI mom

ttsiisv touboiq lo ouls'i bst1uila silT .wsivm ot isbssi orb otivni ow rlsiriw 8 1-01 aswgFl

noiisrrrxolui aAisAA silt lo aiasd silt no nsaorb asw tsill s1 10 bssl silt ai amui1 sasilt iii nwoila

(bsfiuila) '3shsv bus tivi3oubo1q noowlod uoitsI5noo !suaiv silt isilt Issi sW .S olcisT ni uoiiotiio

molt bsnisido sm asldsiisv silt isrlt nsvi 1lsiooqas o1dstsrusi otiup ai 2oIui1 sasili ni

as abnmt uornrnoo ot sub noitsionos lo ti1idiaaoq on ai srsrb oa atoa stsb tnslollib '1ots1qmoo

.aoldsiisv OimOfl0350lOsffl ffOffls sans tilini

sasilt lo smoa fiT .ashiaubni ismhq usvsa silt idi stsb silt s1qaib Q-E asIuFT tas1tnoo cr1

tad !tivitoubo1q bus 'toiisv isubolq usowtsd noitslsnos s lo sousbivs Isuaiv ai sloth aoitaubui

bus E sMuT iii noiaaoot oS ioI bus! lust-Owl orb audi isilirn 8u1 lust-owl sill ow ow Joisqqu bus 3auhlolo io9 louboiq idl oulsv inoTluo sill oau ow Jnornqiupo noilufloqanuti bus aloubotq oinotlos!o 101 oLulw ao1dsi niwoilo1

.'loit6v

Page 20: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

81

oalE sis sisilt asass lo mdmun aT .osnsoilinia Issitausta ol bsal ot iluoea gaoita ton ak Ii

asil alsuboiq him sliixst :slqmsxs iol .'tiviouboiq io (tahfiv isiltis iol anoimvisado rthItuo

niilai1duq him isqq ;2821 111 atsuboiq boow ;82l 111 tsFmv tsuboiq iol noitBvisado nF(Ituo UE

-8V21 brrnom '(tivitsubolq iol anoillivisado siwris '(Inimssa a&l atsuboiq isddui him ;182 I iii

aol ssfiiaaf3lo silt tEth tsth td bsni6lqxa ad ims 2821 ni tshsv tsuboiq wl aisiltuo silT .0821

asw ii miii oa isoy tsdt ni mstata H silt ot AU2T silt mail bsrmrls atioqmi .8.U iol smsilsa

isrlto aT ¶98-8821 ams' owl silt isvo I aboo Ia isa aommos s niau (8) tsiritaaos ot oldiaaoq ton

aornsn silt ni asimrls tiIi1a '(d baniEIqxs ad 1165 'taimv tsuboiq iol anoitwnsado ni'(Ituo 858E3

tnsiallib ad ot isaqqs mar11 RnuiBm anoitqnsaob A8IJ2T silt ni \(IInisoqao omit iovo aboo lo

aaoiaasisi silt gmtsmitaa-ai iftiw batnamkiaqxs avsrl oW °'toa am ysilt tsl ai narlw atsuboiq

lsuboiq no atnoisilloos silt tndli bail ion bib tuct anoitsnsado 11i'(Ituo sasilt nibulsxs sliilw

.bsvoiqmi 1bs*mm sisw tsimv

sw ilsirlw —

tasmqiups noit&hoqanwtl ban atsuboiq lnsiitssls —

asrxtaubni owl am 51511T

bull ton oh ow ilsirlw iol tud !iltwoi3 "auonsobns-imsa" lo aiasiltoq'il silt til ot bsqxs bluow

mail nssa sd ass II .'(taimv tsuboiq has ivitsuboiq noowtod noitsloiios s Ia osnobivo 'as

as sldsta stiup sin asiitaubni owl aaaill iol asiuaBsm tsimv tsuboiq iuo rnrlt VI ban 01 asiuiT

aasrlt ahitiw aoitssin roam oot ai siaffi aqrnha .aaldniisv ivitsuboiq arlt ot bamqmos

arnulos taiil silt iii alqcnsxa io .'ctakmv lsuboiq lo siuassm luIninnsm £ iol wolls 01 aantaubai

aoitstxoqausit 111 nsioA nnilt '(tskisv tsuboiq ns\ ilsum asH nswthT hilt ssa sw I sldnT lo

11k aslidomotun harlainil atioqxs ssioA ilrno2 tnilt tsnl silt ot sub 'lslil taom ai aiciT .tnamqiupa

him cmwiT neawiad aboog nomcnoo edi gniau xsbni 'isi,sv i3uhoq noiiosa-eaot) £ boiozni2rtoQ avail aw baaianI .28-8891 iI (8) aumaom oi aesili iii anaia11ib silt sti him 28Q1 iii nisa him 8821 iii asio{ cliuo2

baquoi '1to5noorti gnisd agad oilaalq s1qmaxa iol) aiois noitaofhaaala sasili tic amoa toarioo or bath avail sW°' .aioiia doua ha nwob Aowtt ci aldiaaoqmi ai ii aaitibommos A2TJT 000!O1 tavo illiw lad !(agad isqsq ritiw

Page 21: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

lo bnbl airlt '(1381351q ai II ".lls is atsuborq oaoill noqxa ton asob nswiT a!iiiw asititnrnJp agisi

'(tshsv ouboiq tscli osnouflni Iliw isilt iorl3o silt ton bits ono '(d bstioqxs ai Isilt tsuboiq

s ovsil bluoila aslidornotus borlainil b floqxs atssioA isrlt wollol ton asob ti niH .xobni

sill noclw abow iocIto nI .aontnuos owt silt aaoios aoitivitoiiboiq oviislsi no tasqmi o1dslsiboq

lnil silt asntnuoa owl sill ni atsuboiq tnsis1ib 'isv svo bstomtanos ai srnassm '(tsxmv tsubrnq

.taol ad 'sm '(tivitsubolq bits lshsv nsswtsd

bsislsinu '(lgnimssa gniau noiaasisi 'çitaubni sill ifs stsmilas-si ow ls sldsT iii

nsstxia silt aaons armot iorjs bo noitsIoTlos silt lo tnuooon niAst '(H .($JUa) anoiaasisi

silt no '(lmIus!risq atons bisbnsta ni no subrn lsilnstadua £ io1 wolls boillsm audi asi-i1aubni

am alnsiofllso3 '(Isimv silt lo sno tud ifs 4s sldsT ni aurlT .alnsi3ffi500 '(tsimv tsuboiq

sviison s no sAsl ainsioflisos sasilt !ashtaubni sf11 nomA .lovsl *OQ silt Is tnsoilinia

silt asitaubni 'ithnoosa sill nomA .asaso ssult ni sulsv svitiaoq £ bits aoass soirli ni sulsv

Issniosis ioI svitssn bns asas3 snin lo tuo 1rlio ni svitiaoq ai tnsisiitsoo '(tons'! loiiboiq

!auflT .llsina '(!sms1txs tud ovitiaoq ai tnornqiups noitstioqansit no trisisilisos sill ;aiouboiq

how atiow ffiwo "auonsobns-imsC isrlt anoiaulanoa IIsisvo iuo l-zoqqua ot nissa ailuasi saoill

.asiitaubni '(ismhq sill iol atluasi bsxim asvi bits aoii1aubni 'çithnoosa sill Its '(hson ioI

sldsimv wr sill isrll ails bits E sldsT ni alluasi noiaasisi sill rlliw rnsldoiq tsitnstoq snO

aA .sisrla !stiqso silt ni atiloiq tsrrnon-ioqua lo noiaul3ni silt ol sub bsiuassrnaim sd nss

bits illwo-i luqtuo noswtsd sonoisiuib sill obuisni ol ai asid audi iol noilosrios s svods bsaausaib

as bstssit ai sldsiisv alIt sisrlw !(Ol) ni ioaasipi Isnoitibbs its as 'itaubni doss ni iltwoi Istiqso

odi cmdi iedln iigkb-oviI orb In xebni 'ionnv iouboiq orb Ioiirtanoo ow (c'QQI) rrotlimnH hits armY silano&1 nI iii aboo oouft lanol in ovnd nnwinT ban noio2 dinoE fri 'çilaubni ti3ib avil thns nsdw '(lao bits Joys! DIE 113th-owl lsth bniI ow bits noits1us1so 'Qoiinv i3uboiq ad! ni bsbuloai ion sin aslidomojus bodainit inS airsom sasilT nommos

.ablod iognol on insmqiupo noiisiioqannii nidhiw 'o° b lava! isdgid a soioX

Page 22: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

ni oilwi tao3-33nq 3111 al t4 31311w (1 -i) alsupo aiclsimy aidi no 6 lnoiofflooo 31ff .auoa33ohffo

rn ahoqxa has alioqrni lo 1a31x3 3111 101 Iollnoo ol lasnoqini amooa oath Ii !noil!bbs aT .A vjilaubni

3)111 bluow ow bits '1iviiouboiq 101351 Islol iol anoilsaslqxa beau n3fio 3W 323r1T .'0laubni r1353

orIT .alnoioiTlooo 1oimv louboiq 3111 no losqmi 1nsoi1inia s asri noiauI3n! nod iacl1rIw 332 ol

lsaoilibbs oaorli aibu1oai olirlw \c11aubni 11353 101 0012231331 orli boisraiia3-31 mrnl 2110231

.ô bits 231(1ST ni nworla 315

rioilouboiq ol athupo) o uuucn s as atioqmi siuasm ow 31(1ST aT

3W 323111 lo dboH .soititoic% n1\?. s as thoqxo siuasom bits (ahoqmi aulq

anoIaaOl3ol ouT .001 'd bailqillum ssroA rlluoa has nswthT n3owlad 03ff31311ib £ 25 bowas3m

311110 1iono3obna 3111 idI 3nulO3TIoO !(8J2E) aosupa 12531 ogsla-osicll (111w bolsrnilao 315

illwoi3 Isliqso him illwom luqluo 1133w13d o3nslollib 3(11 —

noililoqmoo looIloqrai id! noil3snoo

rloirlw !oIdshsv airli no Inoioillooo orlI tioq3i 3w 31(1ST 1 nmuloo hunt ocll itT .i3aubni floso ni

1risoiIinia him 3viliaoq .(tinu aunim oilsi iaoo-oonq 3d .o.i) qu*mm 3111 lo 315m11a3 as ai

s as ooosdol him 233513v3d (111w) a3iitaubni n3otxia out lo luo n3v313 iol b3aisldo 3W aolsmilao

a(1T .asasa said ni bnuol 3m ainoiodlaoo Insoilingia him 3v11s33n him e(oasa onlh3biod

315331335 3111 ot oub 3d 'C nloi(1w aon1aubni aaoios lid s oiiup 'isv aquAism 311110 aobulingarn

aanlaubni aaouos a3ism!lao 3aiovib aaol anistdo (VQQ1 ôQQ1) insbsM ;auoto3a 323(11 lo Isiol

.slsb 3tsgoi3gsaib 310ffi 3ff1211 e53iOA dliuoa 101

him lioqmi 3111 ff0 21(1313111303 3111 ttoq3i 3w a 31(1ST lo aamuIo3 dhiuol him burl 3111 nI

has ngia clod ni a3rllaubni aaouos noilsimv lo 33130b 3niaiuquua s work 323n1T .2315112 iuoqxo

3rD :obsit lo 3iU2S3ffl avilsin3lIs as bsi3bianoo oals 3W 21111 1351100 has 'cit oT .oonsoxIin3ia

nswisT no3wlad 33a313111b s as has ln3oioq lii boaaoiqx3 ,alioqxa has aJTIoqmi lo ?Thi ithcng

ol b531 Ion bib 3iuasam obsil 3W 51113115 ai(1T M 31(1ST ff1 nworla 3m 2315fflu123 323n1T .s3io)T him

Page 23: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

Ilsrua s 1rio bsri bus aovIo2rnorIi aoldshsv obsit orb lo 2inoiodlooo orb ni tnomovoiqrrri ns orb isib i ot noi2ulono3 anT .ainonillooo honEy toubrnq bus aquAism boismiiao orb rio iosqmi

1o riown ovsrl ion aoob jioifltoqrnoo ioohaqmi iol niol 001100 orb bus aoiarfa absit orb 1o nojauloni

bnoooa orb ni bofloqoi 015 ainoioiflooo oaonlT .ioiwv iouboiq lol aiua!oftI300 orb no tosqmi us

fljo novoa :l bus E aoldsT ni brnoI anw isriw ot mlicriia 'çIOV ow bus ô bus aolcfsT 1o anrrusloo

ailuaoi boxim oliniw !ainoioill003 insoufinia bus oviiiaoq ovsrl aohiaubni 'wbnoooa onin out to

bonoaoiq bllsiinmiacfua ow etluaoi 2J0 Isitini mo aun1T .aoitubni 'ismhq orb io1 bonisiclo ow

.obst lo aowasom auoiisv bus noili oqunoo lootioqini iol nilooTioo ioils non

anOiaul9floD 2

'clovitsloi nood ovsnl olorli r1iwoi wonoobno no *10w Iso!ioloorb ovianoixo orb oliqeoG

e2Oflhni1100 isitaubni orb -ioq .aloborn oaorb lo aaonotstiqcnqqs orb iaot '(IIsrrrloI oi aiqmoiis wol

orb ii1 ton oh alobom dbwo auonoobno orb Io anoiioiboiq nistioo isrb abnil (dsQQ1) aonol

boiqobs od bluonla aloborn rbwrn auonoobno orb lo noiaiov iotow s isrb ataogua oH .sisb

lo inomqolovob orb no 201101 Ilita lud anoiisoilqmi r1iwo1 otsta-hbsota nislloo rbiw 'sws aoob isrb

ainisnirn-jolob auoimv orb onirnsxo (QQ1) 1ooinA bus oil ni aoqsq ouT .eiuqrn otsiboninotni won

aliT .Iovol obiw-hrnon030 us is Ihsmhq tud aoiiiuuoo bosilshiaubni-ilwon orb ioI nIiwoi lo

is 'wi oubrnq bus blobs'! iouboiq noowiod noiioonnoo orb iaoi '!iooixb ot iqmotis tall! s ai oqsq

1110 .uswisT bus so-ioA nbuoa :aoiiinujoo bosilshiaubni-hlwon owl 161 lovol oisgoisaib 5

not!irnsH bus nsY stna&:I lo uibniI orb td boisyilom b-mq ai aoirnonooo oaarb ni laoioini

orli ot aohtnuoo oaorb moil afloqxo lo ioiwv iouboiq orb ui aoonoioT1th ols oiorb isrb (VQQ 1)

.aoiiiaubni lo iodmun £ ni solo){ ascii bioilsv ioubolqlo lovol 1orIinI s nivsrl nswisT nitiw .2.TJ

Page 24: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

rioiaivib airiT .aoiitaubni mbnoooa bus olin olqmsa orb bobivib ow Joa1uo odI IA

bowiosluusm botsilrirnallib no '1oi bluow aon1ubni rloidw ot oo1ob odt owtqsa ot bobnotm gsw

-iruoa" out lo 5lutalnta out tioqqu t11soi ton oh aohtubni vjsmhq oct tsrll bnuol oW atuqui

uioilsmilao bus aahtaubui auoiisv ro1 at1uoi boxiru ovs bus 1obom ritwola Thuonogobno

odi iol tioqqua noi1a oliup obivoiq atluaoi orb iovoworl oh1aubni asbnooo orb oT .abodlorn

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Page 25: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

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Page 26: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

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Page 27: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

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Page 31: CGUP J-H A - NBER...iismaaoif) but nsmq!oH (1Q21) itT iobio ol o1sIono olsla-'bsola thwoia ii orb oouioads lo Inornwobno 2o2soI3ni oaoull aionllus boiloi no orb iioilqmuaas Isnll onli

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