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Transcript of 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti...

Page 1: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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Page 4: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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Page 5: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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Page 6: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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Page 7: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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ii '1Isoftioaqa .asvisnisila owl orb oIrislnaeib ot sldiacoq ciii !lavsworl 'faisnirnoq

luods anoiloibsiq slqmia lo slquoo £ avail ow ascii sno lnsriimob silt ci toalla iooda-Isiiqso sill

131110 'na io) rltwoi uo nibba •tnFI .anoiaaa-iai qala-briooaa oil lo noieiav otahavid sill

aiuaasm silt lo oansfloqini silt aisnimilo bluorle anoicaoisi silt ol ('(tivilos iol xotq

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navhb Ion ais ailuasi 1110 lath gmIa3gua luo orriod ci anoitoibsiq oaailt lo billion !nOoc isslo

.atothlo ioodc-lstiqno 'd

us aSian torinso alavsl Iafiqao tacit nimisIo son sis ow tail! jsvowoif aaaila bluoia oW

rloum lo sosl orb ni '(11 bIllow chiT .ioivsrlod aibnaI Ansd no boils inobnoqobni inafloqrni

'(1150 bus aO8Ql stat ath ni Inaasiq 313w atoalls ilonino-Istiqso tail nworla earl (13111w daisaaai

Page 29: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

'1ncas5r3ni loom ot bo1iriia (aoaso rism ni 232201 nsol d lirl-bisil bsoth) aAnsd as ,aOQQI

omit ovitiaoq 1thniism oth tsdt 21 223U tasil mo !bssbnl •Jn5m3jp5 thhqso 1nsnh1a

atnsnanoo libiupi! Ansci ithisdw--wo!sd ano1aaois1 m lo smoa ni IOVOOUU ow lsth ,E iii busts

atosfloi--slqmsa mo lo lisq fls1 5(11 ni bsonuonrnq rnm 11soilsms1aa smoosd oI tssqqs

bnsn omit s obuloni ow lsrll noassi aiilJ 1saiosiq iol 2111 .amsldoiq fsiiqso Ansd ibua 1tosxs

isliiosa ltnsisqqs airil ml Ioilnoo ot tqmotts sbino s lii anoia251gr qsta-bnoosa mo ui

.nonsmonsdq

atIuas$I stiilsasfl .VI

.anoilsoiliooqa noiazoisi qola-bnoosa snilsasd mo moil 211ua31 3(11 lnoaoiq bus 4 asldsT

silt anistnoo sldsl bus anoitsoi1iosqa Insiollib sift ha lo wsi'nsvo tosqmoo s asvi 4 sldsT

.anoiaastor Isubivibni silt mcnl histsb

wsnnsvO .A

oth :noiaarsi if osa motl (outhv-q bstsioo2as silt (111w) isdmun sno iJn awoiia 4 sldsT

lo boils Istot suli .o.i--io1soibni oiloq 'çtstsnom lnsvslsi suit no abnaiofllooo sift lo mm

Isns bus arisoI 190 ml A Isns :alsnsq owl otni babivib ai s!dst silT .,\ no oiIoq

.tuods siso ow bsth aoitartsba 1251 si Si Isvi1osl1s ow stout jsnsq doss uI .ansol Istol ml a

ai iotsoibni 'çisbsnom sill no atnoiofllsoo silt lo mmsa silt sdtsulw 2'(Ew x12 last ow

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ssiiil silt lo doss wI anoitsofliosqa slsi-isyid bus stsrtsvrnu mo o1 bnoqasnoo atast X!2 silT

.smlsisli! 21(11 lo \5'fl112 £ o1 (QQ1) sqisd2 31t

Page 30: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

msioffisoo silt lo mue silt lsthsrlw sw xia sms silt iii ist ow bnoos .viots3ibni

--2)lnsd "gid" silt iol cmilt alnsd lIsm sill o1 iswol 'ltnsofliia i iolsoibni '(islsnoffi sill no

.noitudhlaib ssi sill lo ? I qot sill ni saorlt

.noita ilsmsitxa 516 ansol I2L) idi al1uaai sill sIcJsT lo A J5g5q moft nssa ad ns aA

svtsgsn sis asismiias tnioq sill ?25253 xia Us ni .2)!nsd lisma silt idI alluasi silt lath isbianoD

sis astsinitas silt asaso xia silt lo svil iii 1svO5IoM nOIlsib5iq 153!lslOsIlt sill ilhiw inslaianOO

wolsd i1Isulos alE asulsv-q sill asaso xia lo iuioI iii ;istlad 10 !svsf &k silt is lnsoflinia

lsnoilnsvno3 is tnsfhngxa iflsoitaitsia tori gi slsmxlas sill 113111w ni sasa Ino silT

lssvsD 1110 svods moil !IsasSI) .noitsofuisqa alIiM-nsrloaofl sill Io noizisv slshsvid sill ai a!svsl

bolosqxs ad tHim lois3ibni ylEtsnom ajilt iii •xoTls lnsmsiuassrn bsDlJbni-aasnstsloaib silt tsrll

(.ti ritiw bsnistdo atluasi silt nsAssw ot

stsmilas tnioq silt asas xia us nI .alsitnsisllib sd-idü1nsd-I1sina silt ol inut tx*1

iii isisl aswIs sis alsitrisisilib 1nsd-idUnsd-Ilsma sill tsrlt oa svitiaop ai aAnscf 3id sill ioI

.noitsloai iii alnsd llsma silt ml bsnisldo asiuil nibnoqasTio3 sill asrll sulsv sluloads

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wolsd sis zsulsv-q silt asas3 xia lo svfi ni bssbni ;isltsd io lsvsl O.8 sill is tris3flinia

sA mo lo iltod iol rioqqua griimlsrlw-isvo asbivoiq 4 sldsT lo A 1srrs tsilt ai snul motlod silT

.asasr1toq(il

owl silt nsswisd stsnimhoaib 01 an wolls 01 nisd oals 4. sldsT lo A i31q ni alluasi silT

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.anoiisups

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Page 31: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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2A .Insd 11sm2 aHl o1 28lsmul23 iuo gniasid 3d slqnn q ni lriim lar1l--lol2 gniAoola

aflia aviiaoq atswIs zi thmd id ath iol alnaiafllao3 adl lo mua adI IsdI 13th 8(11 avods b322u321b

lo abulingsm oth nidl'1ns ii lath zlzouz airiT .'çiota nb1ao1a-io11ud Isnoilsi aill lo iovth ni

b 2133113 au-il ath riitslnabnu 3d ldim anoiaaaia lnsd4lsma 3(11 mcxii alnaiofllaoo ad:

arll 10 abulinsm adi 1d bam2saw iaflad ad 1dim 2:39113 323(11 baabnI .1E no 'ox1oq 'çislanom

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ni aatamiiza nibnoqaanoD ads lo isift rIllil-ano 01 Inidl-ano luods '1no 1Lsoiq'1 ai a3tsmnaa

Is sasoflinia won ai aAnsd Ilsme 3111 101 a3ilaiisl2 teal xia ath lo anon '(!lnaupaanoD .A lansdi

saat ida orb lo owl Iau[ 1is1irnia .& I SI wolad aaulsv-q avsd owl tlguoth a1ava1 Isnoiinavno3

io &?4.t 10 aaulsv-q (11kw lnsoflini WOfi 316 alsilnaaIlib Aasd-gidUnsd-llsma ath iol aoilailsla

.ial1ad

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bluow ano lsdw 81 aids iarhsa banilluo anoasa ioi 1ni .anoitsnalqxa aldiaaoq owl lasal Is ats

aidI iabnu nisA .1(1012 nb1oola-a11ud Isnoils-i ath 11:1w balsiooaas asid ads ito baasd loibaiq

J1sioaqaa ai mailsv-iaanoo air!t bns 3v1Isv-1aanor) 001 '(1Isan3 am aatsmulaa Iuo no1Is1opalni

lrI3IalIib lo aanos1s3 nsol aaoios noiJsgsis aiadw ansof Islol tol baanuonrnq

mo rI3irIw ni anoilsoiui3aqa avilsntaJts 101 wolad D.V bits A.V aitoiloa2 tavawod a32& 11112 liadls) lnsoilingia 11153i12i15a atom thum am &IBO1 Islol tol alnaiofllaoa baismnaa

.(ansol E%3 tol aaodt nsth abulingam iii talisma 'Hsitnstadua

Page 32: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

thiw ob a? nidlon asrl isdil uioitsiislqxs islqmia !bn035e s oa!s al sisilT .asid silt aslsthoosxs

iaujbs nso aAnsd 1thutsm Iloila 1svis1oi iisth lo sausood Isdb sd sm II .asasid vionoobns

bib iii nibnsI usd1 tau[bs ns sclt ascii 1ibsoi siom nibns1aluo ansol h23 lo smulov sill

bstastslni 515 ow tsdt 2135110 sill oa al airll 11 .assrtom mbst-3noI as rbua ,aono3stso bojsm

.ansol kIC) is AooI ow nor! w 1tss13 siom duoir!i smo 111w iii

alisboc .8

sisilT .t aldsT qu sAsm tsth anoiaassi Isubivibni sill lo alisisb sill atcisasiq sidaT

laoM .bolsoibni islsnom bits sq nsol lo noilsnidmo3 iioso iol sno J cluouill A ,alonsq ô 515

lsnsq--sno lau[ no Infi au3oI ol ovibairitani ai Ii oa ,abnsq aaons islimia tsv OlE arrtoiisq sill 10

laom sill sis aslsmilao sill ilouriw bol--bojsoibni vodiM-sArismsfl sill bits ansol I3 iol ,D

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lo ami silt 1no l sldsT ni borioqs-i sw sliriw t21 .ogismo atoth tnsilsa 10 slquoD A

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ax 21i1313i11503 3u1oq-'(IEisnom Isubivibni sill lo sno olriia Iosis3 Ansd-Ilsma silt

• noitsoiliosqa otshsvid silt iii swls3sn 315 sno iS Ifs bns

, noilsofliosqa stshsvicw sill ni sviissn

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slquoo laiil silt svo ifl2E3bOni alnsiofllsoo silt iltiw aAnsd llsina sill ml sqscla qmuil oldiauslq

.nwob niyb tIfsubm nsill bns asl 10

101 OlE ao no alnoioillsoo sill anoitsofIiooqa sill lo anoiabsv slshsvid sill ni bnoosa

audi bits uota nb1oola-ls11ud Isnoilsi sill ilhiw insraianoo 21 aiill ,nisgA .sviiiaoq rusq laom sill

0€

Page 33: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

sbi2 sill no ns yiostsa Ansd-llsm2 sib Io1 2stsmil2s 11)0 ISilI )Itli Ii ot fl02551 isritorm 13\( 21) 2svig

.maitsv1s2no lo

sib lisw woil 1o ssbi us ts nso sno sldsT iii alsnsq tnslsllib silt 220fls nnsqcno3

2IJst A Isus !slqmsxs 1oJ .notsoibni '(Islsnom tnslsllib sift ibiw tEl anoiaassi qsta-bnosa

id nO1a2s1S1 qsia-bnoosa stsrisvrnii silt xsbni 2111M-nsrloaoH sill bus 2nsol h2.3 iftiw Isift 21)

Jsnsq) iotsoibni us 2S Msi 2bniJI silt 01 ilOliw2 sw nsrfW & I .E1 lo 5I us zsvsiilos 2AiIsd llsrn2

silt niods emsono bluEs mo thiw InstalanoD al ajilT ol lbstsm 23211 5I sill !( silt oi og sw nsilw IJsnFI .xsbni a!IiM-noilaaofi sill rbiw bsisi3oaas amsldoiq aasnstsioaib

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.aldsthsmsi sliup 25 211 aslhla 1351 ajIll asixoiq aion esv!sarnsill

alluas5I silt lo s3ns3ilinia 3imonood 1)

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iuo lo siutsri silt nsviD .asbutinsm ni1asistni 1Is3imono3s lqmi asssmitas tnioq sill isilisriw

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at3sIIs tuqtiio silt ni1ilnsup 10 Iso auoilidms siorri silt noil3sa nibulanoo sift ni aauoaib

lo asosiq istho lo isdinun £ 251lU5i scrnilov nibnsI ni as3nsisuIth sasib iltiw bslsrnoaas

nirl1on asil tsilt sviliaoq sd tilaim ao no atnsioillso3 silt ilW (102551 isilioiis ei sisdT' bnsmsb nsol asaisi 'oiviios oimonoos iii oasoni ciA .bnbl ins lo asasid yiionsobns iftiw ob ot

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Page 34: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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.loJsDibn! '(islenom s as 0151 abrnil sill niau molt amos isili aeismilae sill 1111w flsla ol lulqhsfl

lthma tel ,E\ id Inemevom islol sill lo slsmilas 8v1I5'flOanO3 lawn sill !A lansCi !' sldsT moil

ailiT) £10.0- luods ai Aooiiz 3151 abaul (lriioq aiasd 001) lnioq ssin3313q I s niwollol a)IIISIJ

sill eluqmoo oi au awolls siugit aiiIT (.aMnsd hlsina iol nolIsDiuiosqa elsnsvid 3111 molt aemos

lo AnirlT .hooila '(islenom 5 03 alesila s3rlsthd gni'çsv (111w atisd llsma lo sanoqaoi lsllnsisllib

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silt lo ashilnssisq SOT has HIOQ sth ol bnoqaanoo asulsv sasril ; ?S lo elm £ gnivsil as

lnioq aiasd 001 £ isfis aistisup wol easo aicll nI .QEQQl iii a'lnscl llsma wl noiludFilaib

.0 l11guoi ed 111w lnsd biupilli sill lo ansol b&) lo level sill slsi abaul sill ni 525013111

betisla aAnsd Sod ii abiow isillo nI .Ansd biupil sill lo Isili ascII iswol alnioq sgslnooxsq

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blolmol ilr1uoi beilqitlum 21130113 boluqmi sill ,I sldsT lo A lsns iii Isitneisiuib lneioillsoo

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Page 35: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

nbhsmHorisd io .irn thnul 3111 ni 325313fii lnioq 2iasd 001 s isils iss'< sito aAutsd [&m2

isfis tss' scm Isili slnrrnles SW !(eQQ1) nisl2 bus qsriasN ni mill bslon 3d bluorla Ii !2s2ocwq

sth ni saoth) ainsd Hsma us lo nibnsI 1Z3 slssslils ath pboil2 slsi abnul lnioq ai2sd 00! s

ThO 10 iloiclw no nibnsqsb wilT V '(lrlguoi 'd bs3ubsl 21 (wol3d bus 3!ilns3isq I11Q

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Page 62: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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Page 63: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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Page 64: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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Page 65: 1otpne J9b0L 2022 - NBER · 2020. 3. 20. · snO lasqas lo rbua anlnsa-Acisd ashosib ai anti bs!Lca-oa nibnsJ" "WSJV 1o ytsianom .noiaaimansit IA sill flssnl lo sill 3nibnsi WSIV

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