5_Tanguy Van de Werve

A Closer Look at Trends in A Closer Look at Trends in Europe & BeyondEurope & Beyond

Tanguy van de WerveDirector General, Leaseurope

Bucharest, 18 October 2007

2


AgendaAgenda World markets in 2006World markets in 2006 Leasing volumes and growth, in Europe Leasing volumes and growth, in Europe

and further a fieldand further a field Leasing’s contribution to the economyLeasing’s contribution to the economy Market playersMarket players Asset typesAsset types

3

World Markets in 2006World Markets in 2006

US

ELFA

175.2 bio€

Europe

Leaseurope

297.5 bio€

of which:

Equipment Leasing

250.7 bio€

Japan

JLA

53.5 bio€

Australia

AELA 17.2 bio€

New leasing volumes; source: Leaseurope 2006 Annual Survey and local leasing associations

Brazil

ABEL

7.2 bio€

Canada

CFLA

18.5 bio€

4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Bill

ions

of €

85.5 bio€

New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in EuropeTotal New Leasing Volumes Reported

in Leaseurope Annual Surveys

HP explicitly included from 2003, automotive long term rental members figures included (when available) in 2006

CAGR: 10.9%

297.5 bio€

5

New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in EuropeEquipment & Real Estate

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Bill

ions

of €

Equipment Real Estate

CAGR: 10.63%

CAGR: 11.01%

RE 46.8 bio€

Equip 250.7 bio€New Volumes

2006

6

New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in EuropeEquipment & Real Estate

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Bill

ions

of €


Average Share of RE

83.84%

Average Share of Equip

83.84%

86.7%

80.3%High:

97

Low: 02

7

New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in Europe

UK UK 55.0 bio€ 55.0 bio€

New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006

8



Germany Germany 50.4bio€ 50.4bio€


9




Italy Italy 48.1 bio€ 48.1 bio€


10





France France 36.1 bio€ 36.1 bio€


11






CEE CEE 33.4 bio€ 33.4 bio€


12







Benelux, CH, AT Benelux, CH, AT 28.8 bio€ 28.8 bio€


13








Med Med 28.8 bio€ 28.8 bio€


14








Med Med 28.8 bio€ 28.8 bio€

Nordic Nordic 18.1 bio€ 18.1 bio€


15

Growth in EuropeGrowth in Europe

Total New Volumes: Annual Growth Rates

Calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year

10.66%

12.84%

11.69%

15.24%

16.50%

7.92%

11.62%

2.71%

8.35%

7.23%

13.47%

6.89%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2006:Lower RE growth

16

2,58%

-2,50%

4,33%

8,94%

13,61%

3,57%

38,62%

6,87%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Germany

UK

France

Italy

Mediterranean

Benelux, AT & CH

CEE

Nordic

2004/2005 2005/2006

Growth in EuropeGrowth in EuropeNew Leasing Volume Growth per Cluster

Annual growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year

17


Total Equipment Leasing Growth


15.29%

2.49%

7.20%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Equipment

18


Equipment vs Real Estate Leasing Growth


30.04%

-8.73%

5.61%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


19

15.64%

-12.55%

8.37%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US


Equipment Leasing Growth in Europe Compared to the US

Annual real growth rates, US data source: ELFA

20

-10.02%

9.94%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Japan


Equipment Leasing Growth in Europe Compared to the US and Japan

Annual real growth rates, Japan data source: World Leasing Yearbook 2007 & JLA

21

-7.39%

27.65%

3.61%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Japan Australia


Equipment Leasing Growth in Europe Compared to the US, Japan & Australia

Annual real growth rates, Australian data source: AELA, includes all types of equipment finance

22

Contribution to the Contribution to the European EconomyEuropean Economy

0,00%

0,50%

1,00%

1,50%

2,00%

2,50%

3,00%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Leasing Volumes as a % of GDP

Leaseurope average, calculated as new leasing volumes from Leaseurope Annual Surveys divided by GDP from Eurostat for countries with available data

23


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

New leasing growth 05/06

Inve

stm

ent g

row

th 0

5/06

DK

UKSE

DE FR AT

BE FI NL

ITCH

CZ

ES

SI

PT

SK

EE

Leasing Growth Compared to Investment Growth

Investment = GFCF – investment in private dwellings; source: Eurostat

24




-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%


Inve

stm

ent g

row

th 0

5/06

PL

25

R2 = 0.3015

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%


Inve

stm

ent g

row

th 0

5/06


DK

UKSE

DE FR AT

BE FI NL

ITCH

CZ

ES

SI

PT

SK

EE



26

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IT NL NO PL PT SE SI SK UK

GFCF New Leasing Vol


CAGR (97-06) for Leasing Compared to Investment


Overall CAGR: 8.94%

Overall CAGR: 4.82% <

27

European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing Penetration

11.89% 12.50% 13.02%14.83% 15.08%

17.25%19.02%

4%

9%

14%

19%

24%

29%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total PR

Average Leasing Penetration

Source: Leaseurope data & investment figures from Eurostat; Incl. hp from 2003 & new LT members in 2006

28

11.89% 12.50% 13.02%14.83% 15.08%

17.25%19.02%

16.06%17.67% 17.35%

20.23%21.64%

24.30%

28.43%

4%

9%

14%

19%

24%

29%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total PR Equip

European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing PenetrationAverage Leasing Penetration


29

11.89% 12.50% 13.02%14.83% 15.08%

17.25%19.02%

16.06%17.67% 17.35%

20.23%21.64%

24.30%

28.43%

4.75% 4.87% 5.62% 5.51% 4.97%6.32% 6.14%

4%

9%

14%

19%

24%

29%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total PR Equip RE

European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing PenetrationAverage Leasing Penetration


30

European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing Penetration

10% – 15%10% – 15%

Country Level Penetration Rates(2006)

31

Leasing PenetrationLeasing Penetration

10% – 15%10% – 15%

15% – 20%15% – 20%


32


10% – 15%10% – 15%

15% – 20%15% – 20%

20% – 25%20% – 25%


33


10% – 15%10% – 15%

15% – 20%15% – 20%

20% – 25%20% – 25%

> 25%> 25%


34


16.06%17.67% 17.35%

20.23%21.64%

24.30%

28.43%31.00% 31.00%

33.10%

28.90% 27.60% 27.70%

27.70%

4%

9%

14%

19%

24%

29%

34%

39%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US

Average Leasing Penetration in Europe vs US

Source: ELFA

35

16.06%17.67% 17.35%

20.23%

24.30%

28.43%

24.90% 25.90%21.64%

22.90%

4%

9%

14%

19%

24%

29%

34%

39%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Canada


Source: CFLA

Average Leasing Penetration in Europe vs Canada

36

16.06%17.67% 17.35%

20.23%

24.30%

28.43%

38.98% 38.35%

41.82%

36.41%33.91%

37.43%39.32%

21.64%

4%

9%

14%

19%

24%

29%

34%

39%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe US Canada Australia

Leasing PenetrationLeasing PenetrationAverage Leasing Penetration in Europe vs Australia

Source: AELA

37

European Market PlayersEuropean Market Players

Based on homogenous sample of members reporting in all surveys, measured in terms of number of firms

Short Term Evolution in Leasing Company Profile

32%

18%

28%

4%

33%

18%

27%

4%

31%

14%

32%

4%

30%

18%

29%

5%

30%

16%

34%

4%

29%

16%

37%

5%

29%

16%

37%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006200520042003200220012000

Indep Captive Bank Owned Bank

38

32%

18%

28%

4%

33%

18%

27%

4%

31%

14%

32%

4%

30%

18%

29%

5%

30%

16%

34%

4%

29%

16%

37%

5%

29%

16%

37%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006200520042003200220012000





39

32%

18%

28%

4%

33%

18%

27%

4%

31%

14%

32%

4%

30%

18%

29%

5%

30%

16%

34%

4%

29%

16%

37%

5%

29%

16%

37%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006200520042003200220012000





2006:Bank Related: 42%

Captive: 16%

Independent: 28%

2000:Bank Related: 33%

Captive: 18%

Independent: 32%

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2001 Ref Line


% of tot market

# of

firm

s

Concentration of European Leasing Companies

41

0

10

20

30

40

50

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2001 2003


% of tot market

# of

firm

s


42

0

10

20

30

40

50

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2001 2003 2005


% of tot market

# of

firm

s


43

0

10

20

30

40

50

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2001 2003 2005 2006


% of tot market

# of

firm

s


44

Types of Asset on LeaseTypes of Asset on Lease

47.9 bil€

16%

101.7 bil€

34%

46.8 bil€

16%

101.1 bil€

34%

Cars

RECVs

Non Auto Equip

Source: Leaseurope 2006 Annual Survey. Includes data for Leaseurope’s new automotive long term rental members (when available)

New Leasing Volumes per Asset Category (2006)

50% 50%

45

Equipment LeasingEquipment Leasing

8%

41%

6%5%

21%

19%

Computers & Business MachinesRoad Transport VehiclesPassenger Cars

Machinery & Industrial Equip

OtherShips, Rail, Plane, etc

New Equipment Leasing Volumes per Asset Category (2006)

Total Equipment

Volume:

250.7 bil€

46

0%

10%

20%


8%

41%

6%5%

21%

19%




Asset Share 06 Category Growth 05/06

Growth calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year

47

0%

10%

20%


8%

41%

6%5%

21%

19%





16.25

Computers & Business Machines 3.23

Road Transport Vehicles

17.54

Passenger Cars 2.73

Ships, Rail, Plane, etc

8.78

Category Growth 05/06Asset Share 06

48

0%

10%

20%

0%

10%

20%


Road Transport Vehicles


16.25


17.54Passenger Cars

2.73

Ships, Rail, Plane, etc

8.78

Ships, Rail, Plane, etc23.34


6.97


18.38Road Transport Vehicles

9.02Passenger Cars

Growth calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year

Category Growth 04/05Category Growth 05/06

49

Benelux, AT & CH

14%

9%

16%53%

4% 4%

Nordic

19%

13%

23%

34%

2%8%

Machinery & Industrial EquipComputers & Business Machines


Germany

15%

9%

15%49%

3%9%

UK

12%

11%

13%

49%

10%5%

France

24%

11%

24%

38%

1%

Italy

48%

4%18%

19%

11%

Mediterranean

28%

3%

21%

30%

13%5%

CEE

25%

2%

31%

33%

4% 4%

Other Types of EquipShips, Plane, Rail, etc

Passenger CarsRoad Transport Vehicles

Cluster Specialisation (2006)

50


29%

44%

4%

16%

27%

44%

5%

15%

27%

45%

5%

16%

22%

47%

4%

16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2005 2004 2003

ConsumersConsumers

Public SectorPublic Sector

ServicesServicesIndustry & Industry & ConstructionConstructionAgriculture, Forestry, Agriculture, Forestry, FishingFishing

Other client categoriesOther client categories

Short Term Evolution of Client Categories

51

Real Estate LeasingReal Estate LeasingCluster Specialisation (2006)

Germany

85%

15%

UK

99%

1%

France

86%

14%

Italy

51%49%

Mediterranean

79%

21%

Benelux, AT & CH

94%

6%

CEE

92%

8%

Nordic

99%

1%


52

Real Estate LeasingReal Estate Leasing

Office Office BuildingsBuildings

26%

Hotels & Hotels & LeisureLeisure

7%

UtilitiesUtilities

2%

Other Other BuildingsBuildings

14%

Industrial Industrial BuildingsBuildings

28% Retail Retail OutletsOutlets

28%

Type of Building Leased in 2006

Total Real Estate

Volume:

46.8 bil€

53

All# (mil) 12,3 2,1 1,5 15,9€ (bil) 256,3 40,5 60,2 357,0

Portfolio/fleet

Focus on VehiclesFocus on VehiclesIn 2006, new Leaseurope membership base brings In 2006, new Leaseurope membership base brings

additional weight in the automotive sectoradditional weight in the automotive sector

All# (mil) 6,2 0,9 0,7 7,7€ (bil) 115,4 21,4 27,9 164,7

Vehicles financed/purchased

Based on figures reported in the 2006 Annual Survey & Leaseurope estimates; includes figures from short term rental associations except for fleet value (€)

54

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

AT BE CH CZ DE DK ES FI FR GR HU IT LU NL NO PL PT SE SI SK UK

Passenger CarsPassenger CarsLeaseurope PCs as % of New RegistrationsLeaseurope PCs as % of New Registrations

New cars bought or financed (used cars excluded, all product types together) compared to new PC registrations taken from ACEA

Leaseurope Average:

35.5%

55

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

AT BE CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IT LT LU LV NL PL PT SL SK UK

Passenger CarsPassenger CarsLeaseurope PC Fleet as % of Country FleetLeaseurope PC Fleet as % of Country Fleet

Leaseurope fleet ’06 as share of total fleet (’05) taken from EC’s “EU Energy & Transport in Figures “

Leaseurope Average:

6.5%


Tanguy van de WerveDirector General, Leaseurope

Bucharest, 18 October 2007

5_Tanguy Van de Werve

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