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THE EXPORT QUANTITY PREDICTION AND STRATEGIES

DESIGN OF THAI FROZEN PRAWN INDUSTRY

PAISARN DUSSADEE WTIKUL

A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the

Degree o f Master of Science Department of Engineering Management

Graduate School D burakijpundit University f M 1

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5.2 0 5 d 5 i u w a m s Z n ~ 7 ............................................................................ 82 9

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Thesis Title The Export Quantity Prediction and Slrategies Design of Thai Frozen Prawn I

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Industry i I

Author Mr. Paisam Dussadeevutikul

Thesis Advisor Assistant - Professor Doctor Suparatchai Vorarat

Department Engineering Management

Academic Year 2007

ABSTRACT

The objectives of this study are to predict the export quantity of the industry. to

&sign appropriate strategies, and to offer effective approach to strengthen the industq's potential

in production and marketing by researching internal and external factors of the industry to design

appropriate strategies. This study uses monthly secondary statistic data since January 2000 to

December 2006. Statistic method has been applied to predict the export quantity of frozen prawn

as well as to analyze both internal and external factors of the industry to design production and

marketing strategies. The study includes both descriptive and quantitative statistic.

The study of the export quantity prediction of frozen prawn using statistic method

results at the level of 0.584 Alpha, 0.1 Gamma (Trend) 0.1, and Delta (season) 0.0 in Winters

Method which provides value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) = 9 , Mean Absolute

Deviation (MAD) = 1,897 , Mean Squared Deviation (MSD) = 5,920,748 a s the value is the

closest to true value when adjust parameter. The value sigmfies that frozen pmwn industry's

tendency of 2007 is 39 1,821 tons, at the 1 1 % increase compared to that of 2006. The analysis of

internal and external factors of the industry to &sign and prioritize strategies indicates that the

most necessary strategy is to increase market share which belongs to one of the industry's

potential enhancement groups of strategies, while value addition to the product, cost reduction,

standard strengthening, new market exploration, and research and development (UD) which

strategies are further measures.

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mrmroilfiunaiiou t i rnu~nsd~ir - ra$ai~;?~f i 'u~n~~"~u Qali i irniumu~tlaxI~u~o~a

d~fuoii. i~ twnf i~1~~~r i i laa7unnimind~ud~ 3 r i~ i i anunm~dou~r l

4.2.2 Moving Average ((*ln~Fl(i?LP$ UlR 40fl$)

mni; 4.3 : n n ~ u n m u u 1 1 ~ u ~ ~ u 1 f u n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n f i ~ ~ ~ s i ~ 1 I 4 " n t 255oi3o% Moving Average

DPU

~ m o ~ ~ ? m ~ i ~ ~ ~ i ~ w u ~ n ~ a s " d ? % ~ i m n i ~ ~ 9 0 0 n f i 9 1 ~ ~ 6 ~ ! 4 4 1 0 9 ! ~ f l ~ ~ ~ w . ~ .2 s so n"3u

Y a% Moving Average Z I I U ~ ~ O O % ~ U ! ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Q ~ ~ I G ~ ? I ~ ~ I # ~ E P I ~ ~ ~ R I ~ % ; Z ~ I ~ ~ ~ E U I I U R

1~uu1ai3.r;~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ o E G ~ ~ J x I ~ I K ~ % I I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I G o ~ i ~ i i WIUXIIUIUII~ 1 ~ a ~ i o ~ 1 + 4 o q a ~ l i ?

iiuauu~o ~ a ~ l n o i n r n s w u ~ n s f ; o ~ n n ~ i d ~ ~ ~ m ~ l w * ~ # u i ~ rii~ln~!li~mn~~iodalduvo~~o~n~

Cau ~ d o t a i n ~ n r i ~ ~ ~ ~ u n & a u ~ ~ ~ ~ i i ~ ~ ~ u T~ur i i N ti~nunInY = 2 idosmn40uaijiintlor-:

1rin~dltXo.rl4 N dli~uYou 1w"odo-1~?u$rns~~~uu~tda~1isam~fa d t w n i ~ Girc1uisn;in

n ~ ~ u n r n ~ m R ' o u u o ~ d ~ i ~ ~ u f i a i % ~ w " ~ n n i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a s " ( w = 3,581.014 F ~ I ~ R ~ U ~ I U W P R W ~ R

diknoq (MSD) = 20,000,007 I A ~ ~ F ~ I A P ~ U ~ O U ~ ~ V D ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ W ~ ~ R ~ U ~ ~ ~ (MAPE) =

16.11856 ~ ~ ~ i i d ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ d d ? u i ~ n ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ f i { ~ b b i ~ ~ ~ ~ v ~ ~ n u ~ u ~ w.n.2550 s3u 377,100 6u

r n n ~ ~ ~ r o n m r w u i n ~ d ~ ~ u ~ ~ p l ~ ~ ~ u r i ~ w u ~ n r d o ~ ~ a d u o ~ ~ s r i i ~ ~ u ~ n ~ ~ o u d o s o ~ n ~ r i

~ ~ ~ ' J B ~ I L u ~ T ~ u ~ ~ ~ E ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ I I X ~ I Predicted d ~ ~ w ; l u ~ n s d ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ w ~ n a i u ~ n ~ ~ ~ $ ~ ~ o p d

q4 i ~ ~ # t i ~ n a l u n a i m m b ~ u i ~ 3 ii i in~~unrnnaBou~s~iu~auisiu~od

4.2.3 WExpmthl Smoothing ( ~ ~ R ~ F ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ # ~ u ' u I L ' u ' u I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ L M ~ ~ ~ ~ w )

single Exponential Smoothing

45000- Achral

A Predictad

+ Foreast - Pmal

35000 - - - Pmdicted .... Forscasl

6 25000 - Smoothing Constant

Wpha: 1.000

W E: 14

I= - WD: 3002

MSD- 14709041 I I I 1 I

0 10 20 30 40 50 MI 70 80

Time

DPU

w n a i o o l ~ w u l n r & d i u i ~ n ~ ~ E i ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ i ~ ~ ~ . r u o . r ~ n u ~ u ~ W.ff.2550 i2ui"ainsle

~xponentid Smoothing ~ U I ~ ~ B ~ U I U ? ~ ~ I r n ~ ~ ~ d 1 ~ 1 8 n ~ i ~ d i ~ ~ f i ' u ~ ~ ~ a ~ i $ ~ d i u x I ~ ! ~

u~uu~,nni) ~ ~ u ~ o ~ n r i 1 ~ ~ o r ~ a a ~ u d ~ m ' ~ ~ 1 1 n n i 1 4 0 ~ a ~ ~ ~ ~ d 1 e l u 1 ~ ~ ~ d i n n i i n d ~ ~ B dlnunril Alpha a = 1.0 r ~ i ~ u d ~ ~ t n l n : n ~ u ~ ~ r u ' o ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a : ~ & ~ ~ w n w ~ ~ ~ i w u ~ n ~ d ~ u

o h ~ n d i n e d I ~ ~ E ~ ~ ~ U ~ ~ I ~ L ~ ~ D U ~ D ~ ~ ~ W U I ~ ~ & ~ U O ~ W % J I ~ ~ X I G ~ I ~ M I I ~ B ~ ~ I W ~ ~ ~ I 4

wuinrpfluauinfl Tnu<~1nnla*o1nns~v1 9:~hli?ili#u Predicted " I I ~ L ~ u ~ # u w u ~ ~ s ~ $ ~ 44 c(

~uoi~iin~iunm~inn'oudi i i i i d a ~ s 1 n ~ a k l ~ l n ~ n ~ 1 ~ l d i ~ ~ f i u 4 o ~ n~uafloldouunz~ li ? ~ I ; ~ ~ ' ~ U U I ~ I ? I J (Trend) lm:q$n~n~uo~na$1u7bdua~B~ 7~d1l~5n'n'nvm:uo~t#odwe11nfab"1~

o u n n ~ n ' n w : d ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ # ~ m ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ d ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ f l r " ~ u ~ n ~ ~ ~ a ~ ~ ~ o u o ~ ~ n ' ~ ~ ~ ~ n d o u

~ ~ n n n n 1 r n u 1 n s P ; f i 1 ~ i ~ 0 5 ~ i 1 n ~ 1 u n n 1 ~ i n n ' ~ u u o ~ r i i ~ n ~ u n ~ 1 u i i ~ w n 1 ~ f f t l ~ ~ d

(MAD) = 3,002 ~ I ~ P ~ U ~ ~ ~ U R I I W ~ I R A I ~ ' ~ ~ O ~ (MSD) = 14,709,041 imrciiiadu+oua:n~iu

E ~ n r n ~ ~ ~ y r o i (MAPE) = 14 T ~ u G c i i w u ~ n s d d i l n o r n i ~ d ~ o ~ n ~ ~ t ~ i a ~ ~ ~ I u ~ w.n.zsso

73u 354,6966~

Double Exponential Smoothing for C 1

w Pchral 8 o m - A Pred~cled

F O W S t

- h a t -- Prndlcled - - - - For~cast m-

iJ Smoolhlng Consfants Apna (lewl) 1 000 Gamma (bond) 0 01 0

0 - W E . 14 W. 3024 MW' 'I 4835640

I I I I 1 I I 1 I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

mwi 4.5 : I ~ ~ R I I I U ~ ~ ~ U ~ ~ U I F U ~ I I ~ ~ O ~ ~ { ~ I L ~ L I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O D U ~ ~ Exponential Smoothing

i u , : 03nm~wuln5S;

DPU

I qnmn ~nuiirnrii1nu~~i1tiou~4~~~1fi~fld" ~ . r 3 iii t a i l Alpha a = 0.584 (il G- (Trend)

d y = 0.1 1ln:fil Delta (season) 0 = .O iatmu7roos'uiu!&ii d l A l p h ~ r i ; l 2 1 u r i 1 ~ q n ' u ~

l u o ~ ~ d i ~ u m u 1 u u X ~ ~ t a ~ 4 0 ~ n 1 ~ a i a ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ 1 u ' ~ 1 n i ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' ~ 1 ~ 1 i 1 ~ ~ ~ 6 ~ - a Id 9 4 1

n ~ ~ u f i ~ ~ i u b o ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ n m 6 ~ i ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ 1 1 ~ a u i r 7 i ) i 4 ~ ~ ~ l u o ~ n ~ d 1 u u 1 l o i u 7 ~ n n - d ~ Delta

~ n ~ n ? i u d i ~ ~ ~ ~ b o ~ n ~ u ~ ~ m ~ ~ ~ u u ~ u ,ubld-ru3niqn ~ t a z 1 ~ ~ n ~ i u d i ~ ~ n ' u u * a ~ f i 1 u u i ~ 1 ~

ci~uu~'lriu~u~~ulnn Tmurii a o ~ g n l f l u r n ~ m r i 1 n ~ ~ x 1 L 1 ? ~ f i u ~ l 1 ~ 0 ~ 1 i i a : i ~ ~ ~ a a i 61 y 9%

Q d ~ u m r m ~ ~ n a ~ u t ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3TGuuovtior?a l i az i i o ozQnl+lurnrn~n~iuiduq9~ia'ua~

bynlulwirt:niwna~ o~nnndn-duYRYii b y n d 3 u i ~ m s l i . r o o n ~ ~ ~ ~ i ~ ~ I ~ v ~ ~ ~ n u 1 u ~ 3 ~

iipinvolrldu~lu?1pr'%]i~n~~~fllR~u*1%111~11a~09 I R U ~ G I Predicted ~ ~ w u ~ ~ ~ & $ D ~ ~ I u o s v ~ d P n~~unrnnmkou~um~w~~ifi~sumi .a.rm#uri-mrii~a~~nd5u~er~pl~11ufi"ui~0S~ 1nulan~uun.r

3 T i i Forecast ~ ~ n i n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ f l ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ u * u ~ ~ a ~ ~ ~ n i a ~ t i i ~ i f i u ~ w " ~ T ~ u n ~ m r ~ i n d i n ~ i u

(MSD) = 5,920,748 I A ~ Z T ~ ~ ~ ( ~ ~ U F O U ~ : U D ~ ~ ~ ~ P ~ W ' R W ~ ~ R ~ % ~ ~ S & (MAPE) = 9 ~ m 1 5 ~ ~ 3 n 5 d

B ~ ~ u ~ T ~ u ~ ~ a ~ q q n i a ~ a u ~ ~ Gamma 11ilz Delta %a T ~ ? w I ~ u P ~ P ~ D ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ I Gamma (Trend) bin'.

9 49 Delta (Season) a:l#gmriuri~ m n"oiiu-ru4i?~~?mia9~~lnfl0~n159"1~1n4d ii.rd7lH'lh

orec cast $. I I~UI~U w ~ i n 3 d ~ 0 ~ 1 n f l ~ c ~ ~ Y I I I : u B . ~ ~ ~ I u L ~ u A I u ~ ~ ~ u L A ~ % ~ ~ ~ ~ I ~

DPU

nmd 4.7 : ~ ~ ~ ~ I I c I R P I I u I T G u ~ ~ u I ~ ~ I ~ B ~ o o ~ ~ ~ I L ~ L I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o " ~ S

48

4.2.6 Multiplicative Decornpasition (3m5 W U ~ ~ W & Y ~ E ~ ~ W IL 'U 'UW~)

4 y y l : oinnirwuimclj

Component Anatysis for C I

Decomposition Fit for C 1

45000 acbral

A Predicted

4 Forecast - Achral

35000 -- Prdicted - - - - Foracas t

F

0 25000

1m W E 14 W . 2948 MSD: 72468185

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Originat Data

I

Detrended Data I

Y Y 44 mwd 4.8 : ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ R ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ " ~ ~ w ~ s ~ ~ ~ o P I L I P ~ ~ ~ u u ~ ~ u Multiplicative Decomposition

Seasonally Adjusted Data Seasonally Mj. and Detrendd Data 35000 -'

25000 -

15000 -

10000 -

0 -

-10000 -

DPU

m d 4.9 : nndl~mamr~~fls1rw'n'~ud~:n~uqqn1~8a~% Mdtiplisativc Decomposition

Seasonal Analysis for C1

S e m d hadies Original Data, by -anal Period

~ r n o ~ n n ~ % n a ~ n r ~ d i ~ ~ ~ w f l ~ ~ d ~ o ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ i ~ ~ ~ ~ v ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ u ' i l n.n.2550 R'XJ?; *a.

Multiplicative kcompaition muirn o?uwldiii mnu'nfh:ia?s ankunby n oonduri?uq

T ~ a r ~ i i m s ~ ~ n n e H ' ~ ~ u d ~ ~ n o p ~ & ~ w i ~ u ~~nr?mnr$d~uds~no~)a*iu~~fiifi I ~ o o :

1lid1~luli~uuo.r cycle i m r n ~ i ~ i ~ d 1 d 5 ~ ~ r j u dqntin1 J v i n 4 ~ ; n ~ a d I ~ F ~ ~ # R ~ - I ~ J ~ Y ~ ~ . ~ ~ U I ~ ~ I J

n ' m c n u ~ l d u ~ r a ~ q q n m ~~uli-ruuo~qqrnnainn~id a:indu~~'i i~i lahdii~n*if i"~fi~~

d&uidn.r nnd i i r in l lcu:~~u~n~~duo~n~~u~w I ~ I I U ~ ~ ~ O Y T ~ U E I ~ ~ 1 8 ri?uqob$du J e u w 3% er~~prl&~~nridi;~n~assa~~s~#uns~ir~ua%ps"u~uuw clrslha'nn~rGiuan"Pdn"fl

numn$4r#u~a-l Linear Regression I R U ~ ~ T ~ R R m~11d~d5 cycle ila-qqmn

oon1dn"wuR ~#uYud' l#~r i jn=iu ~11Raio~tmmrrt~1Xu d.rdih yt = 16574.3 +

147.312 t r n n ~ ~ 1 ~ m 1 ~ ~ d a u d ~ r n ~ ' ~ 1 u o ~ n ~ i d ~ o u s r d u n ~ ~ r : n o u u o ~ n ~ i d ~ ~ ~ u u * D ~ a

a94 nnduu~TGu nsidqqmn i l n rns~r l&Gqp~a $4 o ~ i j d ~ l i a n d ~ ~ r i u ~ f l l u ~ ~ n ' a z ~ ~ o u 2 - 4 -4 cl

~ i u ~ v o l : u o ~ q ~ n ~ ~ m ~ n ~ u w ~ u ~ ~ m ~ a ; m u l r o i n n ~ , u n n l n ~ ~ X ~ w ' u o a n 7 ~ w ~ ~ f i 5 ~

I l ~ u i p m m r d . r o n n ~ ~ i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ W.PI~SSO I6j1 G ~ I L ( ~ ~ ~ ~ ? I U ~ ~ R W ~ I W ~ U ~ Z & (MAD) = 2,946

j.3 +

t.2 - 1.1 -

0.B -

I 111 1. [Illm- 45000 - 35000 - 25000 -

0.7 -, t l T l t l l l l l r

f 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 B t O 1 1 1 2 t 2 3 4 5 6 7 B Q 1 0 1 1 1 2

Percent Wstim, by Seasonal Period Residuals, by Segsonal Perid 14 -' lOOW -

1 2 3 1 5 6 7 8 B f O 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 8 7 B B 1 0 1 1 1 2

r a o m - * + , , i , • d~iill~ DPU

4.2.7 mdw Hdt whter's Mutdpkative algorithm (HWA)

Multiplicative algorithm (HWA)

~ ~ ~ ~ n o i s n u ~ n r o i l l ? u ~ ~ n ~ ~ r i ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ J ~ ~ ~ ~ v o ~ ? m u I u ~ w .n.mo &gu% Holt

w i m t s Multiplicative algorithm (HWA) mwr ooiu iu lRi1 mnu 'n i f~~~~ iurhf in 'uu 'a~ ni

~du~~u~TGunn~qqmn 1~uiirnrriinu~d1riou~~u~1~1n~d a s 3 61 n ' o k Alpha u = 0.4 61 A

Gamma (Trend) ')' = 1.0111.dl Delta (season) I3 = .0 ~ J ~ U I I € I B % U I U ~ [ $ - ~ 61 Alpha 1; n ~ i ~ d 5 ~ n ' v b ~ n ~ u 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ 1 t 1 ~ 1 ~ 1 ~ a ' a u i f l n ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ a 1 u 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ u ~ u ' ~ ~ ~ u 61-

I ~ I ~ ~ ~ I U ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' D ~ ~ I W Q ~ R ~ P ~ I P ) I I I U I W I I 1 ~ d ~ ~ m . n u d i ~ ~ ? l i i u u * ~ ~ n 1 ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 % ~ 1 ~ i

u ~ u u ~ n d ~ ~ lra-61 Delta ~ ~ ~ I u ~ I ~ ~ ~ ' Y ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ P ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ I u % J ~ P ~ I u ~ I ~ ' ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ nn:lrilA n ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ Q f i ~ ~ u a ~ ~ ~ ~ m d ~ i ~ u ~ ~ i w ~ ~ Tnud~ a o~pn ' l~urnsrnc i in~~uf ls"U~u~11~0~~~ i

a:hcnrn d l y e ~ Q n ~ ~ u m r m ~ i ~ a ~ ~ t ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a ' b w * ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 5 ? ~ hm-61 o sqn'lauo~rm

DPU

n ~ i n 1 ~ u ~ ~ m a u a ~ ~ ~ ~ a l u b i F i a ~ i a ~ 1 a n 1 nnns~v loz~ i iu I i41 u Y o ~ a n l ~ l n w r n ~ l i ~ o ~ n ~ ~ B

~~dui.ruochuluoSn i i ~ n i n v o l ~ ~ ~ u u u ? ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ ~ ~ n i a ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ i u a r u * ~ ~ I R U ~ ~ I Predicted aa d 8 ~u~nspr"40~nluo'nm i;n~~unmna~oulum5wuin~mn1 ~ c ~ # u R - s o d 1 ~ o ~ ~ n n l ~ u d 0 ' ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ 1

hd10?q T R U ~ ~ ~ U ~ J O . ~ T ~ I Forecast ij~ninYBL:iuaab~ULIUa1~p1L1az~~n1RDi191~du1~$w i nu

( W E ) = 10.4937 W ~ ~ ~ W U I ~ S ~ I J ~ U I P ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ o D ~ { ~ I I ~ ~ I $ ~ ~ ~ Q ~ ! P ? u ~ u ~ 1~R2550 T?U

389,583 iu~nw'o~sol irnrwu~ns&~~u~ier~~~u n:wui?d?sn$s%lsn n'io 6 a$ouusnuofl 4 9 s r u l l s u i o l r n ~ r i a o o n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ l u ~ ~ ~ ~ d n ~ ri3u t u d m n i ~ 8 n k o~iiuuaTGudilnmms

J ziqoon{ql~d1~$a~w"~1~4vpd ~ d o . r o ~ n ~ d u i ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ a u n i r ~ o u ~ ' u ~ ' u ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ a ~ ~ a ~ o ~ (High

K season) ~ d u iuntnuin a~n:iuuuqllnlirosh?lan aln~uni~;ldfiiu3d?u1an1~al~oon~:

3 -a 29 nriuiG2dnnzdnB iidiiiiu?lGurw"uuu o1nmrwu1nr&R"~u~sum0~94Go~nfw oRplQ~u?u

uln ~ ~ o ~ d u ~ ~ v o r ~ u o ~ ~ ~ u a ~ p r " ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ f i u ~ ; i A C ~ U ~ t ~ n ~ n ~ i u . i i u r i u ~ v o ~ ~ B u 44 I

predicted YIURBL#U ~ c h l a l IuoA~IZEIYO~ISQRLOU T ~ ~ ~ # ~ ~ ~ n d i ~ s ~ ~ n d ~ ' ~ t ~ w * ~ u u ~ a u ~ i B

Alpha I ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ ~ M ~ ~ V O ~ L I U ~ ~ ~ U ~ L ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I W ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Gamma 1bi3:: Delta W I ~ ~ - I W I ~ O L R O ~ ~ W U 9 4 9 61 Gamma (Trend) kin: Delta (Season) oz l$Q. i f i~ i l rn f l o ~ l u ? u i ? ~ ~ l m ~ ~ 9 ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 0 9 n 1 ~

d B 0

WUln5u Q~WI$&#U Forecast ~ ~ C B U ~ # U W U I ~ S & I U O U I R ~ ~ ~ n k l a ~ ~ ~ ~ n a ~ l j ~ ~ u ~ b u a ~ w ' u

~m:qnmn 1d5t rnrd: i j~ob1mndi~~?f l ip1n~nu~~?ub ~urnr~i~a.r~~rnpnnn"L1naip~~u

u o ~ l i o ~ aoin~ua-di ~ ~ J ~ ~ U ~ O ~ F ~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ P J I ~ ~ ~ ~ " L ] A I ~ I ~ I W ~ I ~ ~ ~ ' U ~ U ~ ~ ~ B ~ ~ * rim 44 ~ a m r r o ; l ~ u w o ~ a ~ C ~ d i ~ ~ d n ~ ~ d J ~ ~ ~ ~ % ~ ~ ~ a n n ' u d ~ n a ~ u ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ad~ub~da%~~a%;audi

Index 910998flln

DPU

-4 3%

Simple Moving

Average

Mavin$

~ ' i ~ a ~ u n ~ i a ~ ~ i i n n n ~ n

iYuiuyd(~~~)

5,115.624

Single Exponential

I 1 algorithm (HWA) I

3,581.014

Smoothing

Double Exp~neatial

Smoothing

Winter's

Multiplicative

Decomposition

Multiplicative

Holt winter's

Multlplltm tive

~ n n n n 1 ~ d r ~ u ~ a n ' 1 n a 1 ~ n a 1 ~ t n ~ 0 u ~ 0 ~ ~ 1 ~ a ~ 3 5 R ~ R I S I ~ 5 ~ u I ~ A ~ J ? C ; A

k~~in~ir i . r~inm~m~llrruinwan-nanai~rnaouuo~t~da:inn~nrnsncl inrd lumr

w u 1 n r ~ d ~ l n o l m a p i ~ 0 0 n ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ 1 n ~ l u ~ w.ff.2550 aiuirnoiuia!fi~ ~nniin%n

Winter's Multiplicative ~ F ~ M I ~ I U F I ~ I C I W I ~ O U MAD , MSD tlb:: MAPE d l d q A iDinJU1 %

Holt wintefs Multiplicative algorithm (HWA) ,??~ecorn~osition Multiplicative , 5; Single

Exponential Smoothing, ?'d Double Exponential Smoothing , ?$ Moving Average , LI~L?;

Simple Moving Average 'ill iJil6~

r i i i iudolJo:~ iaaoinn~rwu~n~ d d ? u ~ o r n ~ s ~ s o a n ~ ~ n d u u d ~ u ~ ~ ~ n u ~ ~ ~ w . ~ . i

h~a ism~ui i~nrna

r i ~ t i ~ s ~ ( ~ s n )

44,803,600

3,002 1 13,709.041

d~~~~s%"~p~wruoqnrm 4

N R W ~ I ~ ~ J ~ ~ ~ ( M A P E )

21.793 1

20,000,007

14 I !

3.024

1,897

2,946

2,409.36

16.1 186 I

14,835,640

5,920,748

12,468,165

9,730,320

14

I

9

14

10.4937

DPU

4.4 fIl%?jjl~5 ~ L ~ ~ ~ o ~ u ~ ~ u " I P I I ~ o ~ ~ ~ l ~ ~ € I f l (SWOT) Analysis)

~dolR'bo~ndIXoinnir w u ~ n r N'diui~msddoon{~i i4 i i~$~i i6~ ~ ~ n i f u ; ~ i i ~

{ ~ ~ I L ; ~ ( S W O T Analysis)

4.4.1 fIll3~fi%l:Wdd~~unlh (Internal Factors Analysis)

4.4.1.1 qnlid4 (Strength) I v d . Y

- &~U(I~IUIUVIL.U~IIB~~II~~K~T~~SIU r ( ~ l i i l ~ ~ q ~ 0 9 ~ d 5 z n ~ f l n 1 ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ ) - 1 $

r 4 o::ocjlnbn'vilna'~inqiu itn~n'Iisnnri~n'ql do.ra>nkq~un'o (~d-rifiuiiun~id1diiilu4iu P w { d ' l l s t . n o w m s o ~ ~ ~ r ~ i u ~ n ~ n ' f l ~ ~ n ~ a ~ w ~ ~ d u ~ w ~ o d ~ i u b ~ u ~ ~ ~ i ~ D ~ w * a ' m ~ a " u d ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u t f a

i R n ~w'o~~urnsinlnmiu~~11~oi~e~a'm~~"u c ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u r n r d r ~ n b n Y u ~ u ~ i v u ~ ~ ~ u f i i ~ JILGI

DPU

w ~ n s ~ n u o ~ n u ~ ~ r m r m i ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e l ~ ~ ~ t ' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ l n a r r n r ~ l u ' l i n ~ ~ ( ~ ~ ~ - tariff 3-e)

imzu~nsmsd~nim~(~anff ani ire) I I ~ ~ T L L ~ R $ J ~ ~ U O O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ R I ~ F I I & ~ i i n f i m d w ~ ~

i i i ~ r t ~ ~ ~ 1 4 i j u n ~ y w ~ a w I ~ ~ ~ ~ n n ~ u ~ ~ ~ n ? u n 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ (BQI) oirr~nuqulunrna

niinniw u' ms{Gua~n~o~liumsku n n : ~ u n a ~ u l i ~ u h u o ~ ~ d ~ ~ n o u n ~ r d a u n ~ ~ 9 u n ~ 3

n'lq7n'a ~ ~ g ~ ~ ~ n n r s u ~ a ~ i b ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 9 ~ ~ ~ a ~ y u i ~ u ~ u u ~ n l u m s a ~ v l u iniu 1 s . r . n ~ oimr

d ~ f i c ~ u mjoc~nr i~.r~%uinrlT~~(i11~FtoniiwX1 ~ i a - i n ~ ~ u d d s i r n ~ ~ r~uo"amrrwquIu

r n s n f i - r u 1 ~ r ~ ~ u l ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 ~ 5 ' ~ 1 ~ ~ a ~ ~ l a n X a ~ idu mshqmq iso ums2anoulla:onn 4 B luiurodlnmqiumnn r . r l u p i ~ u $ 6 ~ i ; o - i i i i t 4 d ~ u l w ~ ' i ~ ~ n i ~ d i ~ ~ ' u ~ ~ o I ~ ~ ~ riu uinqlu

IS0 900 1 :2000 ol I FI 5 9 I IJ HACCP (Hazard Analysis Crifical Control Points) I btl: PJ 1 GI 'i 1 U FDA

(U.S.Food and Drug Adrmnisfration) ~ U ; U d . ~ ~ ~ m ~ ~ i u ~ ~ ~ i i ~ ~ : d o u o ~ ~ n ' $ d ~ z n ~ ~ n n ~ $ ~ ' f l

n ~ . j u o o l ~ u r ~ a ~ ~ ~ o ~ i s . u ~ l u ~ n ~ ~ ~ l n n

DPU

4.4.1.2 ~ R ~ I I U (Weakness)

- ~lum~inlnu1mrglunl3~1t~1 ddiUUiP~di~~ll~{4i6~bbud~~D~"1~~u'9!&r'~

~ n n r ~ n u a i n u 1 o l r m s d ~ ~ ~ l i ' ~ u i m ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ a i n 1 ~ 1 1 ~ ~ 9 n i ~ ~ n i d ~ 0 u v ' ~ ~ u 1 n 0 i n e l ~ ~ ~ w ~ ~ ~ i ~ ~ i

odnao~l?m kifiuiqh~fiud{d.tls-nop~n~s o ~ ~ D ~ L ~ ~ x L ~ ~ I ~ I L ~ ~ ~ ' ~ M I I J ~ ~ ~ s ~ 1un I I H ~ ' R ~ U &

ln 'p l rshnpnu~u;o~ . rAuuo- rd~:~nnd~.~~~Li i~ in~a~?~ L ~ O I ~ Y ~ ~ B R R U L L ~ : : I ~ ~ I ~ ~ U

B d r a s l 6 1 ~ i o u aini i ind116i~i iaquosd5:tn~&C11$i v ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ i i ) y n i A s n d i ? i i ' l n '

DPU

4.4.2 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ 1 ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ 6 1 1 ~ 1 f l ~ f l (External Factors Analysis)

4.4.2.1 h I l a (Opportunity)

- Cwna~Mium~6i~a'i (FTA) uYnnnn.rG~ni~~lAiSnTon~nSnY~E~m~a.ryu K A d A p rzni1~drzin~nr-d1~n'jiup1u atPi . rwnn'oqnmnnr~%~~~1~i~1u~~~uuni~ai~00ni6u~~n1a*

i j ~ ~ ~ n l u r n r ~ u i u ~ ~ ~ o ~ f i ~ n ~ ~ ~ o u ~ n ~ u

- n ~ ~ - h ~ m ~ ~ n l w r i p l % i ~ ~ ~ m i n i d ~ n i u n ~ r u ? l ~ n ~ ' u i w a ~ u ~ ~ m InY~i6 nq

Iri fi, 4 d m 1gu4iu I-rido~mipi~rlrnuis~4na~~~un'w1~ ris~un'~tYnku'n~ndn B ' d w w d e 4 A a

~ r n r ~ ~ i ~ u u n a ~ d ~ w n ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ w w ~ u m u ~ ~ ~ ' ~ ~ i ~ s7m ~ m ~ ~ ~ d i r n ~ ~ r u i r n ~ ~ a " i u ~ u ~ i ~ ~

tbu l u i l o ~ r j u ~ A ~ n ' ~ l ~ n ~ ~ p 1 i w I u ~ ~ a " ~ n nio1G~;ti~un z iR i6~nd i~ lnYtdu~an159 ; i~ lX~~~ e l , YPI 4 1dnl2idddo ionr 5 181.4 1 . a ~ i a n ~ . m d 1 ~ l & ~ w r ! n ~ ~ o ~ u 1 e l ~ n u i 1 ~ n ~ u s ~ n n i i i n n ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 1 1 ~ ~ 1 0

lumr uilnn~tu'uups'w U ~ I J ? ~ S ~ R L U ~ O ~ ~ ~ ' ~ ~ L U ~Sutiu - hlmqAnr~uuor{'~~'iI%~n i lo~ l ju~u i~nn9u~~nu lA i jm~1 l l~uu i i i ~ ' ina in

~ d o r i o u v i ~ l n ' ~ ~ ~ l u ~ ~ i n ~ ? ' u ~ u ~ i ~ i i d . r ~ ~ ~ ~ r n kwBn;.riiuuiwSniiu61Iw*a0~1~#0afi'u

P?pldr-iiiuuo.r$u;Jilnn r ~ o ~ o ~ n ~ u i l n n r i ~ u l f . p ~ l a ~ ~ ~ a a i ~ i a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ u n ~ ~ v 4 8 9 u i l n n i u n ' ~ a w n ~ o . r u u u ~ u u ~ ~ ~ d ~ 2 d ~ ~ ~ n l w d s ~ n ~ ~ ~ i i ~ n ~ ~ z ~ n ~ n ~ n ~ ~ ~ N d ~ ~ $

n ~ n n r i o ~ i i ~ n r n ~ ~ l u n ~ a ~ ? ~ n n ~ ~ d ~ u u ~ d ~ o l n ~ ~ u i ~ n m ~ n n ~ ~ u w " ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ u ~ 1 ~ 0 ~

{w 5m

DPU

4.4.2.2 P dEl%% w (Threat)

- n'~uo~atbu'dwqc ~ u ~ o ~ h f i ~ ~ ~ d i ~ ~ ~ o " o i f l ~ ~ ~ a ~ n n ~ ~ ~ ~ i f m ~ i ~ ~ ~ i ~ ~ ~ ~

u ~ n i d o c a ~ n ~ ~ u & i d n ~ u ~ r n w ~ i ~ ~ ~ u ~ u ~ ~ ~ f l ~ ~ i u ~ u u ~ n 1lazn1iuu'uuuo~{u3~nnd J

~d~uulida~oinnon ibu n ~ i u u ' u u l u r n s u i ~ n n ~ ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ n l ~ k % ~ ~ w ~ w ~ ~ ~ ~ dn.rnnnmx Y'Y 4 d p 1 9 m~knuila~liuds'f~rirwaln~urlnnAotni~~a11~1~z~~n9um~~3lnn innr.rw wani~dnsr iuSc

dpl . i ims w a ' m ~ u ~ ~ n o n ~ i ~ u ~ d ~ ~ ~ ~ n i ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ d ~ ~ n n ' ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ u a u % ~ i ado~uo~n=~unYo.rmr

u ? ~ n n u o ~ g u i ~ n n A - ~ ~ A ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ L ~ R ~ I ~ ~ L . L ; ~ u ' u I u ~ I u ~ I ~ L$U ~ i u q m m ~ M ~ U R ~ I U ~lnmnaiuuo~iiuni i1ur7n3 r3uiu

- ~IuoArnnnlnwa'n q n ~ l ~ n 5 3 1 1 { ~ ~ ~ i ~ ~ ~ 9 ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ ~ f i ~ P~mnnsr uidc

naiari.roonAu~ 3 nmn 1RYtiTi w n ~ ~ n n i ~ ~ i u ? m nnmwplrd i inznrn~$i/u 8tfoua:: 90

un . rua l imr l iwoniwm &&~II I ~ ~ I ~ R ~ I ~ L ~ ~ ~ ~ L L J ~ ~ I M ~ ~ ~ G ~ I U * ~ P I O Q ~ ~ 3 d~:mn&'io

DPU

' 1 Ionla (Opportunity) I I I I

DPU

MATRIX

pa1163 {Strength) I 961i1~ (Weakness) DPU

B 1) Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) T ~ ~ ~ u u I R ~ ~ ~ u ~ I ~ d ~ l j n d i t ~

er $4

2) Good Manufacturing hct ices (GMP) ~ 5 ~ ~ ~ n l r l l d ~ ~ d ~ u ~ 1 i n ~ ~ ~ a ~

4) IS0 9001:2000 SGS

(Thailand) Limited

5 ) U.S. Food and Drug Adrmnistration (FDA) ~ 0 4 ~ 5 1 1 ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 0 ~ 0 ' ~ 1 ~ f l l f l l ~ ~ p 1 & 1

DPU

I

- ws + T4 naynimxindiugu a ~ n n m w r n s ~ ~ i ~ ~ u ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ q m ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ u 1 I I

~ ~ ~ l ~ l d o ~ . r i i r n r ~ ~ i ~ v ' u ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ n ~ ~ d 1 ~ a ~ ~ ~ d o u ~ l i ~ ~ ~ o l u o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 n"o msii I I #uluhiu'unuiqq ~ i s ~ u n a ~ n ~ l u m s ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 4 n ~ ~ v ~ ~ ~ m ~ 1 ~ n r ~ u ' ~ 0 n ~ n u " 0 ~ i n n 1 ~ 1 i ~

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n i ~ ~ j ~ ~ ~ n ~ b a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ ~ ~ k % ~ ~ ~ f i f l ~ u % ; ~ i l l mr n n ~ u y u l u ~ i u r n r ~ k ~ ~ n :

n ~ r ~ ~ ~ u ' u ~ ~ u o ' o i ~ ~ ~ ' w ~ n n a ~ n s " n d ~ # d ~ ~ ~ ~ d b ~ w " ~ u iiulrna~umr nn$ur lu~~~~n9fpd

f d ; ~ 1 : n n u r n r ~ p l r n n n r ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 u i ~ ~ i i ~ ~ w a ~ u % idu mranvo-rdu'lunr :uaw n13

wn'n n 1 r ~ ~ 8 a ~ ~ i i u l u n l ? u 1 m u ~ f i ~ 1doln~4iu~uAin~ n?0iiun i i n i ~ d ~ : ~ ~ r n i a n p d ~ u d

(economy of scale) ~ ~ ~ ~ r r n ~ ~ ~ ~ W d ~ ~ n s ~ n n " F I ~ " ~ i ~ a " w ~ ~ ' ~ ~ ( s u ~ ~ i e r ~ ~w~$fi(d5en0llm~ii A Y Y J , w e & nmnndoastozli~walCii~fii'IslR'uinuu i ~ n n . r u o : n ~ o . r u u o ~ r i u u ~ o f i i n u ~ l u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ w ~ i

Y rYa pr ~oniiuuo.r+waanau uimr n ~ ~ u y u o : n ' n ~ ! l i d ~ ~ a n ~ : w u ~ ~ q r n n 1 ~ ~ ~ 4 d t in?r

y ' ~ ~ l r u m ~ ~ w " u d i - ~ i i ~ ~ n 1 ~ ~ 0 ~ n ~ ~ l ~ n 5 ' ~ ~ 1 1 n ~ 9 ~ e ~ i ~ ~ 1 ~ u o ~ u 3 ~ ~ ~ w ' ~ ' l ~ ~ n ' ~ ~ a ~ u ~ u d 1 ~ 1 i n

i q m ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ R u o P I ~ u ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ T w ~ ~ ~ T ? W L I W U R ~ U A O P ~ ~ mstRu

Il~:Bn9mwuo.rynmns rnr~H"urt4oanw~nw mslmsiiunY~nmk rnsbmrhun~r

vuds I ~ U & U

a~nmr Pnr ~z&iilla-dinunnn ns'kndn doldoz~8umsf;-rs~~nu'nlunaQni

'Ik~ri n n y n b ~ ~ m ~ ? u n s ' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 9 i ~ G u X ~ nnyn~nmrn5~-rr?nriit~~"1w'n"u~w8~ nnani

DPU

n~yninir~aiuir f i~an~~iu~un' i

Jm&niulu (Internal Factors)

f~114.1 (Strength)

2. &unaiuna~n~sriuue~Jo~ni~di).tuiu

3.6?uqrumwuo4?flqGiwq~

4. # ~ u ? o ' u ~ r n ~ w ' w ~ i ~ ~ ~ n ' ~ ~ w ~ n ~

5. 8 luqlunivtuo~~i ian'a~~d

6. ~ ~ ~ u ~ u M ~ u ~ ' ~ u u ~ u ~ o ~ ~ ' z ~ ; ~

7. ~ n ~ 1 ~ 4 i ~ i q f ~ n 1 ~ d 1 ~ n o t l g ~ f i ' o q ~

s. ~ i u n ~ 1 ~ ~ l l a o n n ' u i ~ n = : n ~ i u ~ ~ u ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 0 ~ w a " r n n ' ~ w "

n:uuu

4

3

4

4

4

3

3

4

I

i i ~ G " n

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.12

0.05

0.07

0.03

1:2iun1iu&n"q~a.r

d&

0.16

0.15

0.28

0.36

0.48 --

0.15

0.21

0.12

9.47~luhiiluauo4duK3

p d 8 ~ (Weakness)

1. biiunirs'nu~ui~rp~ui?uiYi

2.41umr iitu8uK1n~nihqq w

3. ~ I U ~ U H Q ~ U ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ D ~ W F P

4.1Zaf s n r ~ u IR%U~'RQRY i111

5. #~uAYU~uuaqsi%q~

17U

0.09

1.00

1 0.09

3.24

DPU

naynimmaiuaii~u~n~iueuni

# h i t l ~ ~ n (]External Factors)

tenla (Opportunity)

1.dol~n~~AiumsC;11nf (FTA)

~ . ~ ~ ~ I ? = I S ~ T Z U ~ ~ S U ~ R < ~ ~

3.41uruqCnr~uuoa$ujTnflfi

4. IIU~TIYUMTY~~~OZ<U

qdmn (Threat)

1. fiiurnsrlii~u'uqs

2. b;7ufiir$swim~fiwwa'ntYn

3. #.ruduX~n~iinuq~

4. ~~un~1~6uw~uuos~iGu

5. ~ i u u i m s n ~ r i ~ i ~ i n ~ i i

6. B I ' I ~ l l l f l ~ f l l f ~ l ~ ~ f I l ~

53U

' I?u&HUR

I

i i ~ G n

0.07

0.10

0.03

0.10

0.12

0.10

0.10

0.03

0.20

0.15

1.00

nzwufa

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

4

2

2

1zGunaio~iiiYtgws4

J o ~

0.21

0.30

0.09

0.30

0.36

0.20

0.30

0.12

0.40

0.30

2.58

5.82

DPU

nagninirshay ~ ~ I ~ ~ U ~ # ~ " I J Z U X I

f l l k f i l u l ~ Qnternil Factors) .. ~ 4 4 (Strength)

1. # iunnu~~ui :nuuoai~ ia~X~ .. 2. # i u n a ~ u ~ n ' l n n a i u u o ~ ~ ~ ~ w i ~ d i ~ r i i u

3. #iuqunmro~jngG'i]~~

4, ~ u ~ ~ u I ~ : ~ ~ u I H ~ w ~ ~ u ~ ~ H ~ ~

I

I ~ I P S ~ ~

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.09

0. I2 4 0.48

nzltuu

3

4

3

4

6. J~uquwqw5sutuR~ni~q~

7. in~iuJ~u~q$unisfl's:nouq J Z O G ~

8. #iuna1udns~ln'u1~a:fi7iu~ac1~~~~09 w Smfiuw"

9.61u~odu;ruosi?ud;l

p d ~ u (WeAness)

1. #~;lurnss'nviuiasp~ud~d$;~

~zGunaiud15~ues

49o'er

0. I 2

0.20

0.2 1

0.36

0.05

0.07

0.03

0.07

0.10

2.61unlum~1buh61n9~d9;~ 0.10

3. 4iu~un~~udo~5i io<uq~ 0.05

4

4

3

4

3

4. I ~ R ~ ~ ~ I ~ Y I ~ ~ M ~ ' P ~ Q ~ ' L I ~ ' I H

5. #1~8luguvesqs5ogq

13U

0.20

0.28

0.09

0.28

0.30

0.07

0.09

1-00

3

2

0.21

0.18

3.36

DPU

nay ninn~.f i .r~nn'11~~1ff"~uh~i

$q&niuu~n (External Factors)

Inma (opportunity)

I . Z n a n n ; r ~ i u i s (FTA)

z , l i i ~ n i ~ r ~ r n r r u ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ i ~ u

3. &1unq7inrsuuoa&TInn

0 pdll33n (Threat)

1. #iuni~1i4q+ugs

2.41ums~swir~a1~nfin

3.81uhX.in~ltnuga

4. ~iun~iuiuw~uuo(rdiGu

5. # i : l u l n ~ ~ r n ~ ~ l ~ ~ i f l l ~

6. ~ ~ U U I A ~ ~ I S ~ I ~ W ~ I G

5?U

5 3 ~ i d ~ U ~

nzuuu

3

3

3

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

iinu"n

0.07

0.10

0.03

0.10

0.12

0.10

0.10

0.03

0.20

0.15

1.00

~~KunaiuhKtgrm

d ~ t u

0.2 1

0.30

0.09

0.40

0.36

0.20

0.20

0.06

0.40

0.30

2.52

5.88

DPU

1 ~ & l f l 3 l ~ ~ l ~ ~ ~ b ~

~ Q K U

0.16

0.20

0.28

0.36

0.48

0.15

0.28

0.12

0.2 I

0.40

0.30

0.10

0.14

0.09

3.27

nayna 'n~~~Qur i~~~i f i~n i~wwin

Jokniulu (internal Factors)

q d 4 (Strength)

I. hun3lalnu1:nuuo.rpi11~iR"9

2. ~ 1 u n m u n n l n ~ a ~ u u a 4 ~ 0 ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 1 ~ u ~ ~

3 . 6 i i u q ~ r n ~ n u o ~ j l s ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

4. &1u?~uuassU'681u1w~m~mn""1~~

5. 61urlrufllwu~sw~mn'~w"~9

6. $ G u ~ ~ w y ~ f i f l ~ ~ ~ % 1 n 7 ~ q 9

7. ~ n a i u ~ l u 1 ~ ~ u n l r d ~ ~ n a ' ~ ~ ~ i i 0 ~ 9

8 . ~ u ~ 1 ~ i u d a o ~ n ' c l ~ 1 n : n 1 i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ w ~ m n ' ~ w "

9. #1u&t%u4vos.iiu~l

V ~ D U (Weakness)

1 . 8 i u n i ~ ~ n ' n r r i u l ~ s ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ 1

2. Aurnrd~Bufiinwkga

3, ~ U ? U M ~ ~ U S ~ O ~ ~ O ' O ~ U ~ ~

~ . I ~ ~ T s ~ s : u I ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ G u ~ I u

1 5 . Iiuiiuvpunqrii~q~

5 7U

w

i l ~ i f ' l

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.12

0.05

0.07

0.03

0.07

0.10

0.10

0.05

0.07

0.09

1 .OO

fl:llWM

4

4

4

4

4

3

4

4

3

4

3

2

2

I

DPU

nay ninisi iuhuc~~i~ni~main u

6l~Gfl REIIUU J Z & ~ ~ ~ ~ U € ~ ~ C I J U D S

d ~ k

daknitlu~n (External Factors)

Tonla (Opportunity) I 1.Clo~ln~~b;iurn~Ki10(3 (FTA) 0.07 4 0.28

2.1~mni~=~snr:~~m1ua'm3'~u 0.10 3 0.30

3.#1urt~?nssuun~{u% 0.03 4 0.12

4. I I U I I ~ U I I I ~ Y ~ ~ ~ S ~ ~ U 0.10 3 0.30

qd~3.m (Tbreat)

.I . hunisnci.r~ugr 0.12 4 0.48

2. ~~un~swdswina~nwh 0.10 3 0.30

3. #iudu#in~t~nuqa 0.10 3 0.30

4. b;lun?iu$uwauuosfiiiu 0.03 4 0.12

5 . #iuui f i . rn l . r i Io i~~ni~ 0.20 3 0.60

6. #iuuinrn~sii$un~ii 0.15 3 0.45

I?U 1 .OO 3.25

11rfiwiun 6.52

DPU

~ : ~ I J R ~ ~ U ~ I ~ ~ V D S

datitl

0.16

0.15

0.14

0.18

0.24

0.05

0.21

0.06

0.14

0.20

0.10

0.10

0.14

0.09

1.96

w c r w nqnim~Xurni~ouaa::W"~ui

f l~6unluhi (Internal Factors)

qallCa (Strength)

l . # ~ ' l u n ~ l u ~ w u i r n u u o d i i 1 a ~ ~ ~

2. ~ ; ~ ~ ~ ~ I u ~ ~ I ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~ o J ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ H u I u

3. A I U Q W ~ I W ~ Q ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I J ~ ~ 4,41u%u11a:i~u1wn'w n'fun?I~ri

5. & I U ~ P ~ ~ I W V B ~ N ~ ' A ~ ' U ~ " ~ ~

6. iJ~upunyu~uu~u~onl5~a

7. iln~iuQiuiq3un1.gd1:n0~qfi i i q q

8. # 1 u n ~ i u l j a o n i u i ~ ~ 1 ~ n a ~ ~ ~ a 1 1 ~ 1 ~ w ~ ~ w i i ~ n ' w s l "

9. R I U ~ ~ L ~ U ~ ' U O ~ ~ U C ; ~

1adlu (Weakness)

I . 8ium~fr-iuiuirn.c~iui?u6;1

2. Aiwmrriu&#in~fid~q~

3. i w q u u d i u a a $ i n f u q 9

4. r ~ ~ T ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ a l u ~ ~ q n ' ~ . r i i t r

5. ~ I U ~ ; U Y U I @ ~ ~ ~ 8 ~ g ~

53U

v

~ I H G ~

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.12

0.05

0.07

0.03

0.07

0.10

0.10

0.05

0.07

0.09

1 .OO

CIZIIUU

4

3

2

2

2

1

3

2

2

2

I

2

2

1

DPU

nayninnXwnfi~o'ut1az5~~ui

JB#U~UUPJ~ (External Factors)

TWIIU (Opportunity)

1 . ~ ~ ~ n n 4 6 1 ~ f i i l (FTA)

2. 16~rn3~1sns:ln~"l~~iiu

3. X~uw~~nrruuod&?lnn

4 . l i U ? ~ d U ~ l b l ~ 6 0 ~ ~ M

~ J ~ I s s ~ (Threat)

I. 81un1sriisGugs

2. b;7u~iri~fu1moi~wtYn

3.4iu~uXinntinuq~

4. # l ~ f l ? l l l ~ l . l ~ 3 ~ 4 1 0 9 ~ 1 ~ ~

5. #l;lulrlwsfl7.ji~fi1~n3i

6. ~lu111~5n15~d~fl~~

v

i ~ w G n

0.07

0. 10

0.03

0.10

0. 12

0.10

0.10

0.03

0.20

0. I5 -

1324

. I ? u ~ ~ M , ,

nzupru

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

3 L

7

1 .oo

xn"fln31olhA"yum

$a,-,

0.21

0.30

0.09

0.20

0.24

0.20

0.20

0.06

0.40

0.30

DPU

n ~ y n ~ m ~ i i m ~ m r n n i ~ ? ~ i

h # ~ f i l t l ~ ~ (Internal Factors)

QMlk (Strength)

1. h u n ? i u l ~ l n : n a u o ~ r ; i ~ ~ a ~ ~ ~

2. ~ 1 u n 3 1 ~ ~ n 1 n n n 1 c r u ~ ~ i 0 d ~ 1 1 9 ~ 1 ~ ~ 1 d

3. &i ; lu f j fun iwuo~~~q~~ lq~

4. # I U ~ & ~ I ~ ~ ~ ' G U U ~ W ~ ( ~ ~ ' S U ~ ~ M ~

5. huqpmmwuo~wiian'tuw'qd

:6. ~ ~ u ~ u M ~ u ~ U U ~ U ~ O ~ ~ ~ T ~ ~

7. i n ~ ~ u ~ i u i ~ I u n i s d f i : n o u ~ s i i ~ q ~

8. ~1una iu t l e row~~11~~na i~1~aua i~1~0~w~( i ln '~~Dn"

9. #1;7~~fil~M9109~~$;1

~ 6 a u (Weakness)

1. b;lunx5'nnnonm~g1uZui1

2. # I U ~ ' J I ~ U ~ U % ; ~ R S R ~ ~ ~ ~

3. i1u~unC'i7udo~~'i io~u~~

4. r ~ m ~ ~ n r i z u 1 ~ ~ u ~ m ~ ~ u ~ i ~

5. ~ ~ u ~ u ~ u v o a q s ~ o ~ [ a

'I1U

v

~ I M G ~

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.12

0.05

0.07

0.03

0.07

0.10

0.10

0.05

0.07

0.09

1 .OO

nziiw~

2

2

3

4

4

2

3

4

4

4

3

2

2

2

s:$una1udi&yrr89

J e k

0.08

0.10

0.2 1

0.36

0.48

0.10

0.2 1

0.12

0.28

0.40

0.30

0.10

0.14

0.18

3.06

DPU

nqnn"ni~ua~.rni~a1~1nli

d8&filtlflbfl (External Factors)

IBMU (Opportunity)

1 . ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ 6 1 ~ ~ 1 1 1 (FTA)

2. r~mn13=1snr:u~n%u.i~wa'~u

3 .81u* lq~nssuun~~p1?~n~

4. I l U 3 ~ ~ U A f l l Y ~ f l O ~ d

pdmlfl (Threat)

1 . 6 ; 1 ~ ~ 1 5 1 1 ~ 9 f ~ ~ 4

2. #i:lunir~swi~-rlifina'n~n

3. XiuiSu~~nai~nuq~

4. b ; l u n ~ ~ u i ~ ~ a u v o ~ i ~ G u

5. 81ufl1~1snlrillj1in1i

6. E;luuiwsn~sil$un~

57U *

~ ~ U # ~ W U R

u

i 1 ~ 4 n

0.07

0.10

0.03

0.10

0.12

0.10

0.10

0.03

0.20

0.15

1.00

RZIIMW

2

3

3

4

' 2

2

2

2

2

2

.~:Sunaiui~Sqve~

Job

0.14

0.30

0.09

0.40

0.24

0.20

0.20

0.06

0.40

0.30

2.33

5-39

DPU

9681143 (Strength)

1 . ~ i u a n u m l n z n a u o ~ i i 1 a ~ i 4 0.04

f p ~ d @ ~ (Weakness)

I I . h u r n ~ i n ~ i u ~ ~ r ~ i u i i u n " ~

DPU

nqnimsanhtyw

if~6bniuwen (External Factors)

' b s t ~ ~ (Opportunity)

i . h w n~~&iunisXnct? (FTA)

2. I ~ ~ ~ ~ ? ~ : : % S ~ ~ J ~ ' L I I W I U ~ R ~ ~ U

3. C i ~ w w r ) ~ n s s ~ r o s ~ ~ ~ ? ' % n ~ t

4. I lu21hrnrv~i io~tu

adw35f1 (Threat)

~.81~t l l l blud$ufp i 2.81unisw1w1aa1wn8n

3. W;uSun'mnunugs

4. iiuna~uGv~lausln~ri iGu

5. &1~~11~5n15ih l1 jq in l~

6. # 3 ~ ~ 1 ~ 3 f l 1 3 ~ 1 ~ t l n l ~

3au I

a~un's~iua

w

JinGn

0.07

0.10

0.03

0.10

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Winters' Multiplicative Model for C 1

Time


Actual

Predicted

Forecast

- m a 4 -- Predicted ---. Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewl), 0.300 Gamma (trend): 0.900 Delta (season): 0.1 00

A Predicted

Forecast

- m a 1 -- Predictad - - - - Forecast

Srnoohing Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.300 Gamma (trend): 0.900 Delta (season): 0.200

W E : 11 MAD: 2517 MSD: 11608252

1 I 1 I I

40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Multiplicative Model for C1

m a l

8 Predicted

+ Forecast

- W a l - - Predicted . -. . Forecast

Smoolh~ng Constants Mpha ( l e d ) 0 300 Gamma (trend): 0 900 Dslb (season), a 500

Time

Winters' Mukiplicative Model for C 1

k l u a l

A Predicted

Forecast

- k t u a l -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (leiel): 0.300 Gamma (tend): 0.900 Delta (season): 0.900

W E : 24

Time

DPU

Winters' Multiplicative Model for C I

I Wual

I '' I a Predicted *:

Time


4 Forecast

- Actual - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Sm oothing Constants Alpha (leml): 0.400 Gamma (trend): 0.1 00 Delta (season): 0.1 00

W E : 9 MAD: 2041 MSD: 6693576

ktual ,

A Predicted

Forecast

- M u a l -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

SmootR~ng Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.400 Gamma (trend): 0.1 00 Delb (season): 0.200

W E : 70 M4D: 2098 M O : 70787t2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Muttiplicative Model for C 1

4 I . . .

Time


m a l

8 Predicted

Foracasr

- k h a l -- - Predicted - - - - Foremst

Smoothing Constants Alpha (level). 0.400 Gamma (trend). 0.100 Delta {season). 0.500

W E . 10 W : 2237 MSO: 8294624

k b a l

n Predicted

+ Foreast - W a l -- Pmdictmd --.. Forecant

Srnoo~ing Constants Alpha (leml). 0.400 Gamma (trend): 0.100 Delta (season): 0.900

W E : 11

W : 2482 MSD: 10167683

Time

DPU


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


ktual

a Predicted

Forecast

- m a l -- Prsd~*d . . . . Fwewst

SrnooU-ong Constants Alpha (lelel). 0 4DD

Gamma ( b n d ) 0 200 Delta (sesrron). 0 I D 0

Pctual

a Predicted

F o m s t

- W a l -- Predickid . - - - Forecast

Smoom~ng Constants Alpha (11-1): 0.400 Gamma (hnd ) 0 200 Dells (shaaon), 0 MO

W E 10 W: 2115 MSD: 7304464

Time

DPU


1OMlO - 1 I ! I I I I t

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

Winters' Multiplicative Model for C?

a Predicted

Forecast

- Pctual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smooth~ng Constank Alpha (leel): 0.400 Gamma (trend). 0.200 Delta (season): 0.500

W E . 10 MAD: 2292 MSD, 8799630

- Actual

8 Pred~cted

Forecast

- Actual - - Pred~cted . . - - Fomcas t

Smooming Constants Apha (led): 0.400 Gamma (trend): 0.200 Delta (season): 0.900

W E : f 2 MAD: 2597 MSD: 10955018

I I I I I I I 1 I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU


1m - I I I t

0 'I0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


Foncast

- Pdral - - Pred~cted -.-. Forecast

Smoothing Constants Wpha (lewd) 0 400 Gamma (Vend) 0 500 Delta (season)' 0 100

W E - 1 0 w: 2156 MSD 791 5345

W a l

a Predicted

+ Forecast

Smoothing Constanb Apha (lecel): 0 400 Gamma (trend), 0.500 Delta (season): 0 200

MSD: 8776906 1 I ! I I I I I t

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Muttiplicative Model for C l

Time


k t u a l

A Predicted

Forewst - Pctual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smooth~ng cons tan^ Aoha (Isel). 11 400 Gamma (tend) 0 500 Delta (season) a 500

W E 12 W. 2645 MSD. 12701857

k h a l

n Predicted

Forecast

- m a l -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (level): 0.400

Gamma (tend): 0.500 Delta (season) 0.900

I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Time

W E : 7 5 MAD: 3315 MSD 20603140

I t

70 80

DPU


m a l

a Predicted

Forecast

- Pctual - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (lewl): 0.400 Gamma (bend)- 0.900 Delta (season), 0.100

I I 1 I 1 I I

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0

Time

W E . 1 1 IU90, 2401 MSD. 91 97225

I I

70 80


W E . 11 MAD: 2487 MSD: 9937608

I 1 I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

A Pred~ctea

Forecast

- k t u a l - - Pred~ded - - - - Forecast

Srnooth~ng Constants Alpha (Iewl) 0.400 Gamma (trend): 0 900 Delta (season) 0.200

Time

DPU


Time


ktual

a Pred~cted

Forecast - m u a l - - Predictad

- - . - Forecast

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Actual

A Predicted

Forecast

- Pctual - - Pred~ded - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.4DO

Gamma (trend): 0.900 Delta (season). 0.900

W E . 17 MAD, 4087 MSD, 37948812

I I

70 80

Time

DPU


m a l

A Predicted

Forecast

- Pctual -- Pmdicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants CUpha ( led) : 0.500 Gamma [trend): 0.7 00 Delta (season): 0.700

W E : 9 W: 1970

10000 4 I MSD: 6335819 I 1 I 1 r I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


Actual

Predicted

Forecast

- m a 1 - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (lewd): 0.500 Gamma (@and): 9.100 Delta (season): 0.200

W E . 9 w: 2022 MSD: 8684569

Time

DPU


' . . . a Predicted I .- : I 4 Forecast

Pctual

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


Time

Smoothing Constants Apha (level). 0.500 Gamma (tend): 0.100 Delta (season): 0.500

W E : 10 MAD: 2181 MSD: 7769968

A Predicted

Forecast - PcWal - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.500 Garn rn a (trend): 0.100 Delta (season): 0.900

MAP E: 1 1 M4D: 2409 MSD: 9571088

DPU


Paual

A Pmdicbd

Farecast - W a l -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Sm nothing Constants Alpha (lml) 0.500 Gamma (lmnd) (1 200 Delta (aeeaon), a 100

W E : 9 W: f 982 MSD. 6573421

Time


Pctual

A Predicted

Forecast

- Mual -- Predicted

Forecast

Smoothing Constanb Alpha (lewl). 0 500 Gamma (trend). 0.200 Delta (aeaaon) 0 200

W E . 10 MPD 2050 MSD. 6966384

1 u u !

30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Mukiplicative Model for C I

Time


Pctual

a Predicted

Forecast

- pctual -+ Predicted - - - - Forems t

Smoothing Constants Apha (lewl): 0.500 Gamma (bend): 0.200 Delte season)^ 0.500

W E : t 0 M: 2239 MSD: 8352461

htual

A Predicted

+ Forecast

- Petual - - Predicked - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewl). 0 500 Gamma (tend) 0 200 Delta (sesson). 0 gO0

W E : 1 1 MsD: 2500 MSD: 113676671

Time

DPU

Winters' Multiplicative Mode! for C I

Time


ktual

a Predicted

Forecast

- Mual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoohing Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.500 Gamma (tend) 0.500 Delta (season): 0.100

W E : 10 W: 2174 MSD. 7670541

Predicted

- Pctual -- Predicted

Forecast

Smooth~ng Constants Alpha (leml): 0.500 Gamma (hnd): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.200

I MSD: 8172294 I I I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Multiplicative Model for C l

W a l

a Predicted

Fomast - Pctual - - Pred~cted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (leuel): 0.500 Gamma (trend), 0.500 Delta (season) 0 500

W E . 1 1 MAO: 2439 MSD: 10658488

I I I I I I

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


a Predicted

+ forecast - kWal -- Predicted - - - - F o m s t

Smoothing Constants Alpha (Iewl): 0.500 Garn rn a (Wend): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.QOO

W E : 13 MAD: 3023 MSD: 17580848

Time

DPU


W E : 11

W: 2414 MSD: 9422440

I I I I I I I I 1

0 'to M 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


Pchral

n Predicted

Forecast

- k i u a l -- Predicted

- Forecast

Srnoothlng Constank Plpha(Ieml): 0.500 Gamma (bnd) : 0.900 Delta (season): 0.1 00

Forecast

- AcbJat -- Predicbd - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (lewd): 0.500 Gamma (trend): O.gO0 Delta (season): 0.200

W E : 11 W: 2456 MSD: Q901504

Time

DPU

Winters' Muttiplicative Model for C?

Acnial

A Predicted

+ Forecast - k lua l - - Pmd~cted

Forecast

Srnoothmg Constants Apha (levad), 0.500 Gamma (trend), 0.900 Delta (season) 0.500

Time


m a r

a, Predicted

Forecast

Smooth~ng Constants Alpha (leml): 0.500 Gamma (trend), 0.900 Delta (season) 0 900

- W E : 16

MPD: 3616 MSD: 25080452

I I I I t I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Multiplicative Model for Cl

Time


ktual

n Predicted

Forecast

- Amal -- Predicted - - - - Foreas t

Srnwhing Constants Apha (lewl): 0.600 Gamma (bend). 0,100 Delta (season): 0 100

W E : 9 MAD: 1938 MSD: 6148612

ktual

A Predicted

Forecast


Smoothing Constants Alpha (leml): 0.600 Gamma (ti-end): 0.100 Delta (season): 0.200

W E : 9 W: 1979 MSD: 6412629

I I I I I I I

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU


I 1 I I I I I I I

o 1 o 2 0 3 0 4 o 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0

Time


m a l

a PredicM

Foremst

- Acbrar - - Ptedlctad - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lecel): 0 600

Gamma (trend): 0.1 00 Delta (season): 0.500

W E : 10 M: 2113 MSD: 7315160

A Predicted

Forecaat

- M u a l -- Predicted - - - - Famcast

Smoothing Constanh Alpha {leml). 0 600 Gamrna(tmnd) 0 100 Delta (season): 0 900

W E : 11

0 - W. 2309 MSD: 8830857

I I I I I I I I I

Time

DPU


Time

Winters' Muttiplicative Model for C1

toow -I I I I I 1 I I I

0 10 20 30 50 60 70 80

Time

Pctual

a P r e d U

Forecast - Pchal - - Redldrnd - - - - Foreast

Smooth~ng Constants alpha (lewl): 0 600 Gamma (trend) 0.200 Delta (season): 0.100

W E : 9 W : 1997 MSD: 6453056

Pctual

4 Predicted

4 Foremst - m a I -- Predicted - - - - Foramst

Smoothing Constank? Alpha (lewl). 0.600 Gamma (bend) 0.200 Delta (seaaon). 0.200

W E : 10 W: 2042 MSD: 6751625

DPU


10000 - I I I 1 I I 1 L I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


ktual

n Predicted

Forecast

- M a l -- Predicted

- + - - Forecast

Smoothing Cwnstants Alpha (lacel)- 0 600 Gamma ( h n d ) D ZOO Delm (Beaeon). 0 500

W E . 10 MAD 21 96 MSD. 7B31575

ktual

n Predicted

Forecast

- PEtual - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.600 Gamma (trend): 0.200 Delta (season): 0.900

W E : 11 MPD: 2430 MSD 9794930

I I I I I I 1

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU


5000- 1 I I I I I I 1 1

0 10 20 30 40 5D 60 70 80

Time


a Predicted

+ Forecast

- k i u a l -- Predicted - - - - F o r e = ~ ~ t

Srno~thdng Consbnk Apha (lewl): 0.600 Gamma (bwnd). 0 500 Deib (ssason) 0.1 00

Pctual

A Predicted

Forecast

- k h a l -- Predicted - - - - Foremst

Srnooth~ng Constants Alpha ( led): 0.600 Garn ma (bend): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.200

M4P E: 10 MAD: 2221 MSD: 8022919

u I r I 1 I I I

Time

DPU


Time


Pctual

n Predicted

+ Forecast

- k t u a l -- Predicted

- - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (lewl): 0.600 Gamma (tend): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.500

W E : 1 1

W: 2361 mD. 9450325

a Predicpd

Forecast

- ktual - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Wpha (leml): 0.600 Gamma (trend). 0.500 Delta (season): 0.900

Time

DPU


m a 1

A Predicted

4 Forecast

- m a l - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lacel). 0.600 Gamma (tend): 0.900 Delta (season). 0.100

M4PE: 12 MAD: 2462 MSD. 9716719

I I I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


A Predicted

+ Forecast

- M u m 1 -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (leml): 0.600 Gamma (tmnd): 0.900 Delta (season): 0.200

w E: 12 MAD: 2501 MSD: 10135688

I I 1 I I I I I I

Time

DPU


PEtual

n Predicted

4 Forecast

- k b a l - - Predicted

Forecast

Srnoolhing Consbnts Npha (lewl). 0.600 Gamma (bend) 0.9DO Delta (season) 0 5D0

Time


m a 1

a Predicted

Forecast

- k t u a l -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (lewl): 0.600 Gamma (trend): 0.900 Delta (season): 0.900

0 - W E : 15 W: 321 8 MSD: 17019291

I I I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU


I m s l

*. a Predict& I ' I

• . + Forecast

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

Winters' Mukiplicative Model for C l

- Wual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Npha (18-1)- 0 700 Gamma (bwnd). 0.1 OD Delta (sesson) 0.1 00

m a 1

A Pradicted

+ Forecast

- PEtual -- Predicted - - - - Foreast

Smoothing Constants Apha (level): 0.700 Gamma (Wend): 0.1 00 Delta (season): 0.200

W E : 9 W: 1984 MSD: 6275368

Time

DPU


Muat

A Predicted

+ Forecast

- W a l -- Predicted - - - - Fomcas t

W E . 10 W . 2080 MSD 6950757

I I I I I t I I

0 10 20 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0

Time


Pctual

a Predicted

Forecast

- k b a l -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smooming Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.700 Gamma (trend): 0.100 Delta (season): 0.900

W E : 10

W : 2225 MSD: 8044803

Time

DPU


m a l

a PredicMd

Foreast

- m a 1 -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Srnoolh\ng Constaots Plpha ( l a d ) , 0 700 G%mma(b'end) 0 2 0 0 Dmlta (season): 0.1 DO

W E . 9 MAD. 2079 MSD 6435280

I I I I 1 I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 BO

Time


0 i 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 o

Time

k w a l

a Predicted

Forecast

- kmal -- Pmdic(ed - - - - Fomcest

Smoothing Consfants Alpha (Iewl): 0.700 Gam rn a (tend): 0 200 Delta (season): O.ZO0

DPU


Time


a Predicted

+ Forecast

- m a l -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smooth~ng Constants Apha (leel): 0.700 Gamma (trend): 0.200 Ddta (season): 0.500

W E : 10 W: 2160 MSD: 7421638

klual

P Pred~cbd

Fomcaat - k w a l - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha ( led) , 0.700 Gamma (trend): 0.200 Delta (season) 0.900

W E : i t MAD 231 f MSD: 8744t76

I I t I I

40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Muttiplicative Model for C?

A Predicted

Forecast

- Wual - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoomlng Constants Alpha (leel): 0.700 Gamma (trend): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.1 00

W E . 1 1 MAD: 2243 MSD: 7814354

I I I I I 1 I

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


a Predicted

Forecast


60000 ;

Smoothing Constants Apha (lewl): 0.700 Gamma (bnd): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.200

Actual

W E : f l w: 2270 MSD: 80778t2

Time

DPU


I I 1 I I I 1 I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 M 80

Time


W E . 72 MAD: 2536 MSD: 10901426

1 I I I I I I I 4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

k iua l

A Predicbd

Forecast - /dual - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewl): 0 700 Gamma (tend): 0 500 Delta (season): 0.500

W E : 1 1 W : 2365 hSD: 9024043

klual

n Predicted

Foracest

- Pttual -- Predicted - - - - F o m s t

Srnooth~ng Constants Alpha (Iswl): D 7D0 Gamma (tmnd) 0.500 Detta (season) D 900

Time

DPU


- m a t -- Predicted - - . - Foncas t

Srnooth~ng Conslanb PJpha(lew1). 0700 Gamma (bend): 0 go0 Della (season): 0 100

Time


Pdual

A Predictad

Forecast

- #dual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.700 Gamma (trend): 0.900 Delta (season): 0.200

w E: 12 M4D: 2607 MSD: 10414678

I I I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU


; a '-

. -" r,.: " .

a Predicted

Forecast - Pctual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smooming Constants Apha (leuel): 0.700 Gamma (tend): 0.900 Delta (season): 0.500

W E . 13 MAD: 287 6 MSD. 1 1833038

I I I I I I 1 I r

Time


m a l

a Predicted

-- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (lecel) 0.700 Gamms (Wend): 0.909 Delta (season): 0.900

0 - W E : 14 W : 3135 MSD, 14629877

I I I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80

Time

DPU


a Predicbd

Forecast

- M a l - - Predicted - - - - Fomcas t

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lecel): 0.800 Gamma (trend): 0 100 Della (season): 0 t o0

W E : 9 kW3: 1980 M O : 6086392

I I I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


k l u a l

n Predicted

4 Forecast

- m a l - - Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (leml). 0.800 Gamma (Wnd): 0 100 Delta (season), 0.200

W E : 9 w: 2001 MSD: 6227175

I I r I I I I I

Time

DPU


Time

Winters' Muttiplicative Model for C I

W a l

a Predicted

Foremsl - m a 1 - - Predibsd - - - - Fontcast

Srno~ih~ng ConstanB Alpha Pwl). 0 BOO Gamma (b-end) 0 100 Delta (season). 0 500

Forecast - m a 1 -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewrl) 0.800 Gamma (hind): 0.1 00 Delta (season). 0.900

Time

DPU


I 1 I I 1 1 1 I 1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

Muat

a Predicted

4 Forecast

- Mual - - Predicted - - - - F o w s t

Smaoh~ng Constants Apha (leal), 0.800 Gamma (tend): 0.200 Della (season): 0 to0

W E - 10 MAD. 2056 MSD 6502484


k h a l

A Predicted

Forecast

- &ha1 -- Predicted - - - " Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (leml): 0.800 Gemma (hand): 0.200 Delta (season): 0.200

w E: 10 MnD: 2073 MSD: 6656125

Time

DPU


n Predicked

Forecast

Smoothrng Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.800 Gamma (trend): 0.200 Delta (season): 0.5d0

W E . 10

: w: 21 50 WD: 7164361

I I I 1 I I I I I

0 10 20 31) 40 50 60 70 8Q

Time


ktua l

A Predicted

Forecast

- Actual - - Predicted

W E : 10 W . 2250 WD. 7954790

Time

DPU


h a 1

. , . . n Predicted I : I Forecast

-- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smwlhing Constants Alpha (Itlml): 0.800 Gemma (tend): 0.500 Delta (season). 0.1 00

0 - - W E : 11

: MAD: 2314 MSD: 8033629

I I I 1 1 I 1 1 1

Time


Pchral

A Predicted

4 Forecast

- ktual +- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (leuel): 0.800 Gamma (trend): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.200

0 - W E : I t : W : 2336

MSD: 8234651 I I I I I I I I 4

Time

DPU


Time


m a (

A Predided

Forecast - Pchral - - Pmdicted -. . . Forecast

Srnoothtng Constants Apha (lewi): 0.800 Gamma (bend): 0 500 Delta (season): 0.500

W E 11

W, 2410 MSD: 8908215

Pdual

A Predicted

Forecast

- Pchral -- Predicted - - - - Foremst

Smoom~ng ConstenC Apha ( lad) : 0.800 Gamma (bend) 0 500 Oelb (aeaaon) 0 900

W E . 12 W. 2546 M O . 9985605

r I I I I

40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Muhiplicative Model for C l

Forecast

- - - - Forecast

Smooth~ng Constants Plpha (Iew1) 0 800

Gamma (trend) 0 900 Delta (seasonl 0 700

0 - W E . 12 Man 2625 MSD 10041371

I I I I 1 1 b I u

Time


Pclual

P Pred~cfed

Foremst

- ktual -- Predicted - - - " Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewl) 0 800 Gamma (Vend): 0 900 Delta (season): 0 200

W E , 13 MAD: 2684 MSD: 10781549

I I I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU


Time


4 Forecast - k b a l

Predickd - - - - Forecast

Srnooth~ng Constanb Apha (lewl) 0 BOO

Gamma (trend): 0.900 Delta (season): 0.500

W E . 13

MAD: 2824 MSD: 11957793

actual

A Predicted

Forecast - Paual -- Predicted - - - - Foreant

Smoothing Constants Apha (lewl) 0.BDD Gamma ( b n d ) 0.900 Delta (season), 0 900

W E : 14 M: 3079 MSD' 13885761

I I I I I I I 1 1

0 t O 20 30 40 50 80 70 80

Time

DPU


ktual

A Predicted

+ Forecast

- Pctual -- Predicted - - - - Fomcast

Smoothing Constants PJpha (Iewl). 0.900 Gmrnrna(mnd) 0 I D 0 Della (season). 0.1 DO

: 2022 0 W D 61 79425

I I I I t I 1 I 1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


A Predicted

f o m s t

- Pdual -- Predicted - - - - Foreast

Smoothing Constants Apha (lael): 0.900 Gamma (trend): 0.700 Delts (season): 0.200

W E : 10

: W: 2032 0 MSD: 5255169

I I I I 1 I I 1 I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Muttiplicative Model for C t

Pctual

o Pmdlcted

Forecast - klual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constan& Nphs (leiel) 0 900 Gamma (bend) 0 100 Delb (season) 0 500

W. 2064 0 MSD. 6495 1 14

I I I 1 1 I I T I

0 10 20 3 0 4 0 5 0 8 0 7 0 8 0

Time


4 ktual

a Predicted

Forecast

- &ual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants CYpha (lewl): 0.900 Gamma (bmnd): 0.100 Delta (season): 0 900

W E . 10 w: 2110

0 M D : 6838381 I I I I I I 1 I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU


Pctual

A Pmdicted

+ Forecast - Ackral - - Predicted

F o m s t

Smoothing Constants Apha ( led): 0.900

20000 * Gamma (trend). 0.200 Delk (season): 0.100

10000 W E : 10

0 ; w. 21 12 MSD: 6655003

1 I I I I I I t I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

Winters' Multiplicative Model for C A

Pdual

A P d i -

F o m s t

- CIctual - - Predictad - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha ( led): 0.900 Gamma (twnd): 0.200 Dath (season): 0.200

W E : 10

0 : WD. 2122 6738673

I i I I I I r I 7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU


Time


Forecast

- muat -- Predidsd

Foremst

Smoothmg Constants Alpha (Isel): 0.900 Camma (trend): 0.200 Delta (season): 0.500

W E . 10 MAD: 2151 MSD: 7005546

a Predicted

Forecast

- AWal -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (Iswel): 0.900 Gamma (trend): 0.200 Delta (season). 0.900

W E : 10 MAD: 2199 MSD: 7390962

Time

DPU


Time


Muat

Predicted

+ Forecast

- Paual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewl): 0.900 Gamma (trend): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.1 00

Pctual

A Predicted

Foremst


Smoothing Constants Alpha (leml): 0.900 Gamma (bend): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.200

Time

DPU

Winters' Muttiplicative Model for C l

Pctual

A Predicted

F o w s t - ktual -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoom~ng Constants Alpha ( led): 0 900 Gamma ( b n d ) . 0.500 Delta (season): 0 500

0 - W E . 1 1

MAD, 2422 MSD, 88841 83

t I t I I I t I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time


ktual

A P d i M

Forecast - m a l -- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Alpha (lewd): 0.900 Gamma (tend): 0.500 Delta (season): 0.900

0 - MAP E: 12

W: 2491 MSD: 9447688

I I I I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU

Winters' Multiplicative Model for C A

Foremst

- ktual - - Predicted - - - - Foremst

' 1 Smoothtng constants

20000

Smoothtng Constants

20000 Alpha (level): 0.900 Gamma (trend). 0.900

- - , Delta (season): 0.1 00 ., -;

Time

0 -

Winters' Mukiplicative Model for C 1

W E : 13 MaD: 2697 MSD: t 1259820

I . : I - - - - Forecast

I I I I I I I I I

0 Smoothing Constants

2 m Alpha (lewl) 0.800 Gam me (Vend): 0 BOO

t . . , Delta (season) 0.Z00

0 - W E . 13 MQ, 2727 MSD, 11487065

I I 1 I I I I I I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Time

DPU


0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80

Time


/Ichral

A Predicbad

+ Forecast

- Pchrel - Predlcbd

Foreast

Srnooth~ng Conslants PJpha (level) 0 900 Gamma (b'end]' 0.900

Delta (season) 0.500

PcaJal

n P ~ U I M

Forecast

- m a l A- Predicted - - - - Forecast

Smoothing Constants Apha (leuel): 0 900

Gamma (trend): 0 900 Delta (season): 0.900

Time

DPU

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