unKnda

luo A ~ d s ~ r n ~ l n ~ a ~ U u m i u ~ ~ ~ f i u u r ~ n ~ u n ~ ~

amr~Runzyunwk~ru ~ ~ ~ I U ~ ~ ~ W ~ W ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ L ~ U ~ Y Y ~

~ u ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ u n i ~ n ~ t l ' L u d ~ : : ~ n ~ uaznes7u~flu~d~aanha

ncl~u&~ma~~a nmaamsc1::nw7 3040 i h u u l u i

f i lmdi~lt ~ ~ ~ ~ f i ~ ~ 1 n 7 d ~ ~ u d d m m 7 f l ~ i 9 ~ n ~ m 4

d~m~1Znrrnifuhi7pifi~ ~it6~bJ~fludij'~=:4nsigmi717irn

n f i tu muiiu&trjsilnaqnllu

l%i~~euPmu1fieruc#rruiuncloed;laan4~~aa.tlntlu~::

d~tlunud?Kqj ua~#na~n~ui l . r l i fdwanzzmud~

8nun7wn7rdaaonale~lrnu ) S . r u 5 $ n ~ o ~ G ~ i l w w

~ ~ ~ ~ u u ~ w t r l d ~ u ~ ~ u u ( R e v e a l e d Comparative

Advantage: RCA) L L ~ W U ~ ~ ~ ~ P ~ ~ U U I I ~ w mbrn~d

(Constant Market Share Model: CMS) am#193 laQm 4 ntl +nn&~s #-i9171 UAZ~RW~I;I ' I Iu~~~~zu:L~A~ kLtd 25352550

O n u w n n ~ ~ 8 n w w u d i mo~ulArlr?uulmu

r ~ u r f i ~ u ~ ~ d ~ m ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ ~ : : ~ ? ~ ~ u ~ ~ f i ~ ~ ~ f ~ ~ d ~ f i ~ ~

1 r u ~ u r 5 n ~ u n : ~ u r ~ s ~ n ~ ' ~ ~ r l ~ ~ u u r ~ p 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 d n i l i ~ u

uard7fiao7~5luu~tfiud~~uPu Iun~n,~ud,:~nfi

~wd?%fi; l~,hwn~~u'lh~&utnuLfiuu~4uuiun~t ddaan4wras wuWuduq~ dwk ~lan7fi3nw %I?U

u u u i ~ r s ~ d ~ u u r l ~ m m ~ n n ~ d w u i ~ nauilqqunqt

n ~ ~ t i ~ m a i ~ u a ~ n ~ u i l ~ ~ ~ K ~ u n ~ ; u i ~ Q u ~ n d ~ u ~ ~ ~ ~

Abstract

In the past Thailand, depending on advantage

from natural and social assets, could produce rice

wfflcienlly for domestic market, and than became a

leader of rice exporters for 30-40 years. However,

market share In the world rice ma*& for Thailand tend

to continuously decline. But factors that caused this

were not entirely clear. Therefore, objective of this

research Is to study the comparative advantage of Thal

rice export and important rivals. The research

investigate the factors influencing the potentiality of

Thal export by uslng RCA (Revealed Comparative

Advantage) and CMS (Constant Market Sham Model)

of three types of rice: husked dce, white rice, and

broken rice during the prlod of 1992 to 2007.

This research found that comparative advantage

of Thailand and Vietnam was downtrend. As RCA of

The United States of America a d Indla were a Ilttle

change, Paldstan was uptrend. Overal, these countries

still keep comparative advantage of their own rice

expoFts at high led. For factors from Constant Market

Share Model study, we found that market distribution

and cornpstltion factors support export potential of

husked rlce. White rice and broken rice with Its 97.8

percent share of export value during 1992-2007 had

b e n influenced by the world growth effect factor.

Keyword: rice expott, cornparatbe advantage. and

mstant market share

unuhd@ uar l w u u ~ ~ @ i ~ a h d a d i ~ h d a a ~ d t l ' ~

dr E L W ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Y ? O ~ R ~ ~ ~ ~ B I U ~ P ~ ~ ~ ~ U ~ ~ U ~ ~ I O Y W ( I I ~ ~ ~ L ~ ~ ~

(International Rice Research Institute: IRRl) ~fiuknu

M6-I 1 & l 1 f i ~ ~ ~ f l 7 h ~ 7 ~ 1 ~ f l 4 ~ ~M?7~1d~47tUi?9~

r7 n u ~ ~ u ~ ~ d u i l ~ a ~ h ~ ~ l u ~ i ; ~ ~ ri~lfi~nuMc#uu

Zrsnwwt w4~qrsaIntta11a~arl~~uqn mu*ojnlsiq~iiu

uluuiarlirl d n u ~ u ~ u ~ n 0 e s n i n n ~ t u 3 n ~ ~ ~

n~uludhrw~~0n~h~163~~~~~11rli~ufl~~udurtdn~~

a w l ? &W fiarnnfi~~fiun.rzvfin7~~7ra7la~hn d ~ ~ u * u ~ a q d ~ n ~ ~ ~ u n i o h ~ q n ~ u u u ~abl4ih nuvih d%Zn~qsrpa i i l1~i im~m~n~uuw::~mn1~n~ani P

fi?iuuqnu7a rruii~4amnm-Pi~8~'7sn7tAilujl;~~nw0

(Agreement on ~riw~tue: ~ a * ) dfi?n.i.nzfi~#nv&q

# ~ ~ w d ~ u d ~ ~ n ~ % ~ q a h t l d ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n t m t l ~ a w i:lud*inrr tk&fi*ul (yap. I=, p. 377) At&i iun~~h~uf l

2538 mzdIf~tuiqn~Prdeiw~ n ~ w n i l = m ~ l ~ : & ~ a

n t ~ u e i s ~ ~ . r u a i u i ~ n l u n ~ s d ~ ~ a n # ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ l n u urid~

d ~ & ~ d w i d q i i r n n i t ~ r l d a u u r l n ~ d v ~ d~~i7nlu n?tr~ud~=:mrrr~~iwt?sdaud~u~~nu~tz~ W=~~~'JI'IW

n h ~~h~h~mn~a~~1Iud~~~npldu1~h'm~rsa~~n nqsh ~3uuful~iu~f13ni ~fjdud?firy du nioi i i~uw

u ~ r r ~ ~ ~ u I u n ~ . r d . r s m n ~ i ~ n7~d~rfl5uI#~numtnt

~ w . n l r d ~ n i r y n m m 3 ~ ~ w ~ ~ ~ ~ r u n w ~ ~ n q r b i d l

hqnqqrnmwim

4 4 a ~ i i q ~ ~ d 1 1 1 1 n ~ ~ ~ u a z 9 i u i l n a i n c i ~ u u ~ hwinj~uioymnZRn~rii1 UN (United ~atidns

dtmsu~iu & w l f i ~ ~ u a o d nvudd$tdd ~ ~ u ~ w ~ n ~ t l ~ f l u i ~ d Commodity Trade Statistics Database) i m

l ~ u r i i 6 d o l d ~ r Q n n u e n t ~ ~ u u ~ 6 m ~ ~ ~ n r ~ B i 1 nuT3aur?nl undrzmmdu7 ~ z u i i d x m fi &~duttu~~n$u~~ud~siu f l d n wtu

3. dn7uha (Broken rice) SlTC Rev.3-04232 nRil n n i u ~ r n e i ~ ~ i l ~ t r ~ n i ~ a n w ~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ & ~ & ~ ~ ~ ~ huu'dn,~~~rilulrim M~ lelajlnn dkvln

UUU~I o ~ l d ~ ~ r i ~ ~ q m ~ ~ (Constant Market Share

Model : CMS) IB.~QI&--*~U~Y:UI~ ~dmi?u?!?tnnd

n~uf l~ iud~ands l lnun i~1un~d~m~n4~~ ttnzihbld

~ ~ ~ l r u a u u : ~ ~ i l ~ 1 0 ~ 7 ~ 1 d ~ ~ w ~ ~ n ~ ~ ~ f s ~ ~ ~ , o ' l u n ~ t

u~Qun l~mn& i?9~zwc1

~ a u ~ ~ m u r ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n w ~ n m

i ~ n ~ t ~ l r t a u ~ ~ a u w e n ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ u u d ~ u n ~ f d~mn

819 4 614~917 18;uri

mad rra~uldi~fittukc~~uqmf (Absolute Advantage)

d ~ u a n ~ n u d a n ~ ~ d ~ m s n Q ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ n ~ l n u a r ] i ~ u i n i ~ n a i t l ~ f l u ~ ~ i u 3 ? u ? iy rnm.~zXw (Specialization)

n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ w ~ l ~ ~ d u ~ u n ~ ~ & ~ ~ i ~ u u ~ ~ ~

fiw~Wdsuu1 nu ~flwu riuu 9 z d m l ~ d u 2

dlu r l r ~ ~ ~ ~ u a t l ~ m n m u n d ~ (Gains from

exchange) u m ~ d ~ & a 1 5 ~ ~ ~ n i ~ Z ~ n ~ ~ d i u ~ ~ l u n ~ r

R ~ R (Galns from specialh!ion)

3tn7tanm

n a ~ ~ l ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ ~ t m t r r l l ~ u u ~ ~ ~ u (Revealed

Comparative Advantage: RCA)

~luuime~dquudj~n~mnd (Constant Market

S a r e Model: CMS)

Q = y m d m ~ d . r w m % n ~ r ~ ~ h ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n

q, = y n h m d ~ e a n s o . r d r c a ~ h t ~ m ~

S, = t h u d ~ n n l n r ( r a a n r w d x 1 n f i ~ ~ ~ 7 m ~

ih total differential fisln7t (I) ~ & ~ ~ & 4 t l d s ~ u ~ ~ n ~ 2 ~ 1 i w ~ 1 4 n ~ ~ a a n

nun?? (2) o3u?u2~i?nqt~diuudw4nq~~j~~n n i f i t n n d &dl n ~ f i ~ t i z d t t u u ~ u ~ u ~

h h r a ~ t l ~ e m rrdu fim~nw6dxntlu 2 dm lhud ~ ~ u u r m ~ ~ d ~ m u r ~ n ~ t l & u d w n ~ t d ~ ~ m n ~ ~ d ~ 2

n ~ n r l d u u d n s l ~ ~ d a ~ ~ o i l n (S,AQ) dm a 8.r 9 n n7 t d ~ & n d m u l

trulrt~mm?d4tlrmf?~wffm (World Growth Effect) l u n ~ ~ ~ r ~ l r i ~ t f ~ u e i ~ l t l n7uwnuununresnqt u a - n ~ r r t l ~ u u u d a ~ l u d ~ ~ u d ~ n ~ t m a ~ ~ n ~ ~ d ~ t l a n t ~ ~ ~ ,,,, td.raendL?imqlnil TZU1w a U ~ l d d 4QBn

d t = ~ m d % ~ ~ t r u ~ @&) uI~rran~rll.lun~tu43Qu f i , U q 1 n L ~ ~ U M ~ ~ f i 4 ~

( C o m e or Sham Effect)

nunir (5) L n d i ndanz~wurodu &rn~

a u w i ~ ~ a ~ n ~ ~ d i t t l a n a a ~ d ~ z m ~ i 13uc~wuiwnaiu

add~=nsu ZBiuri n ~ m u i u ~ ~ a a ~ n ~ ~ 1 ~ m r n n ~ 3 ~ ~ ~ 3

nunir (8) jundml3~nzkluufidu &dbwaud&m~ tddmuda~n7&fm n~idtl~m unnnn?mrme f \

i ~ ~ u u u d ~ ~ r e i l u ~ ~ u l b ~ a ~ ~ l r ~ ~ n n ~ l i t t n n n i r 4) n~uildttnw3hm"u (Competitiveness Effect)

d i u u u d f i ~ l ~ ~ r ~ ~ ~ M% flolunlddnlniwr n4~fiLQufi4nllur q u ~ ~ " ~ f l ~ ~ 3 : ; ~ n f i g d 4 a f l n ~ ~ LC h4u1udld7 w w n~uito~dud?uudsn7~n~iw&a~mau~ri~rfluu~n ud

2) nluilskd?ull t:nau3ubiqdjman u~n l r in~u~ tc l fnmd~~~d~~a~~11~~maud~: :dd~~ f lu

(Cornmodlty Composition EffecO 4?u nwhaan ~dnqqqnnl&rnnridu~~n3ufi~ (k) di l~n n m u ~ u i i l f l a n . i ~ h n n ~ ~ u ~ o ~ z f ~et1~dtlnaj01nn4:: [CTQ:~) J

~~2fin~~ils~ud~ui]~::nnu~u~ik~~1nd\1a~u~nslwni~ n#ril~dda~/atu~un~r~dduuud~~at~nn~t

I) rii RCA r~Imuilri7riiunljq IOO marawdw

taam~nqtdnm dfluwfh~antw

2) d l RCA ' P M L ~ ~ I ~ U I U ~ ~ / ~ L ? ~ U ~ ~ ~ 100 U R L ~ ~

~ u t r d ~ w l n ~ ~ u u ~ t i 5 u d n c r n s ~ ~ u ~ ~ f i ~ f i u ~ ~ ~ n c 1

Inu

3) h RCA 11.9(1~~~:J.(~7~didlndl too

~uttu'il2539-2545 w:iuuqthmqrj? RCA h i i n 7 3

d t n r d ~ u q n f i n

A?LQ& 2576.54 4780.96 100.72 2015.24 6845.10 4 MU7 : ~ 7 ~ 3 w q 7 n h ~ t t FA0 Statistical Database Online (2008)

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~ n M n n ~ ~ p a r m n a ~ ~ c i ~ a ~ d i ~ n 7 ~ n w ndu iI~4umsn~47um w7 w u~::nduilq4un7tuIla5ta dmnqu

& ~ u m ~ a o 7 u ~ r n e s n n ~ f i ~ R n ~ 1 r l ~ ~ d d u LISi4:driq

i3irnnu'lu~a;rdwi~~~u~n d7~fun$uiI44uunn'~mhu

dqusnu ~%~dud?ai) 2545-2549 i%~ufiu 2538-2544

(wing 2)

2538-2544 ~ h f b 2545-2549 L~LIU 2550 ~ ~ e u t h 2545- Factors

25352537 {U 2538-2544 2549

World Gr~Prvth E f k t -1 -74 Q,65 1 5 , s

Distribution Effect 0.86 9.14 2.32

Effect

Interaction Effect

Total

du?: h ~ ~ m W ? l h q o Unlted Nations Commodity Trade StaUstlca Database (2008)

ppp-- -

World Growth Effect 951.72 21 0,07 51 6.82

Dlstribution Effect

Interaction Effect

Total 387.82 199.96 1 ,O 14.03

h: h m w n h y a UnUad Nations Commodity Trade Stalistics Database 0 8 )

2538-2544 ~kll 25452549 r h 2550 b#fll.I#U 2545- Factors

n'y 25352537 n'u 2538-2644 2549

World Growth Effect 156.40 111.85 51.18

Competitiveness

Effect

Interaction Effect

du?: ~ l u ~ n r n n h q n United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Dalabase (2008)

4 ' 3 n 7 ~ d ~ a s n Q i ~ ~ i ~ n r 3 u a u w w n n i ~ ~ u i u i m o ~

u ~ Z & n (IMF. 2008) qdan~nwnn~ idonaswn

n q ~ i j u ~ n ~ r r ~ o ~ n n 4 n 7 ~ ~ 7 t u ~ i ~ n w m o d ~ u e i ~ 253s

I ~ ~ U ~ U U ? u d n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ w i ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d u ~ n ~ v i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

1~mujmijn~tiin~tdnwn7rt~if::m'u~~~ld'~174df::~n~

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~ Y Z M P ~ u u ' d 7 9 ~ ? ~ f i ' u ~ % 4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 7 1 1 f i 7 ? M Z i ? \ d

umn'mw l u h y uw&ri lun7ru~n~lf i~f lui i4nq~~4~~

n ~ ~ l l l t l w K ~ n ~ m ~ 1 r n l ~ n 2 t d ~ K u q ~ uu'4~~:dilSi~n-w

ddeenhqr 7~aadnrrsti7juqn u d " n ~ ~ u ~ o w ~ d u ~ l u ~ 6 u ~ u ~ d ~ ~ ~ n ~ f l i l u n ~ u i l ~ ~ u d w ~ u ~ u ~ ~ ~ 4uilqGa n l 9 n s a ~ ? ~ a w m !di~?\fl6nun7wn?fd?fl~na"?afli~

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p n ~ ~ ~ w d m . l ~ 6 m t m m ~ ~ u f i a n ~ ~ ~ ~ 4 ~ ~ 7 = ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

tan n + u i h h n n u M h ~~~fluni jui l~iudl io~l i i

n~iuau1~~~uRua ~ d ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ i l l m r j u f i i . d ~ z i i l f i ~ n n n i w n ~ ~ d ; r a s n 3 i ? ~ i i f i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u u ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ku ~ ~ n ~ u ~ m w r r i ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ m ~ n ~ ~ u w ~ ~ ~ i ] ~ ~ ~ i ~ ~ masqn

o u r i n ~ l n ~ r ~ w ~ m 1 n f ~ ~ ~ d ~ u d ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ m e i ~ n ~ ~ ~ 7 i ~ n ~ ~

~d~truuda~ltan~nn~tc15wum=:n~tmn~m L ~ U n w

c ( ~ ~ & u ~ ~ ~ n w m r n n l f i r ~ ~ d u u ~ u ~ ~ ~ d ~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ w ~ w ~

h ~ ~ k ~ a u l l w d l ( y d % ! @ l ~ , 2547, 26) 4 4

n z ~ u n l t u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c L u ~ ? Y Y ~ B ~ ~ u ~ ~ Q ~ u B ~

~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ u ~ h n h ? r ~ ~ ~ n ~ ~ u ~ ~ f i u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u u d ~ ~ d ~ ~

u i b a ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ n ~ u ~ n n i ~ n ~ ~ C ~ I I ~ U I I U ~ ~ ~ U ~ O ~ A

(SaiIm, 20061 lu5 ~ S Q O d ~ r r r ~ l v l u d ~ : n ? ~ u i ~ ~ ~ ~ u

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i l r i 7 r i q I r i d u l r ~ n n l t i l n ~ n q i e ~ n ~ t a h r

n m m n r i i l t ~ . (2547). u l ~ q w i m I n a . Wiuda 1 3 rpnq~ug 2552. w n

httpJEwww.dft. m.go.W~~8l3.asp?level2=11

u d a n rilu~uu*. (2549). CI~mmIdidn~oii~Tmn (~ufifib$ I 1. np~mm: I N C ~ u I P i i m 0 l i ~ o m ~ ~ ~ m 9 .

qeu'&tiln. (2547). & h a wn~i i~ocl9wgj~Qt lmn~~~~. npmrrr : qaGH?mln.

an~~iu34u~~an?~wunl~~wnhu. (2542). n~9ta?unh~m~7rrrr?u~.m2un~.r~ddu, nmunv%u~wu& n~wmw7ESail.

i ~ ~ i ~ i l ~ n ~ ~ u 1 m ~ . (2652). m t ~ n ~ ' ~ ~ n ~ ~ 1 m w d n l 3 il. auk& 1 o urmrru 2552. qm

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