121

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

BtKmfXm-]-h¿≤-\-hpw, C¥y-bpsSImem-hÿm hyXn-bm-\-ßfpw

tUm. ]n.-hn. tPmk vFan-cn‰kv s]m -k¿

sIm®n≥ imkvX kmt¶XnI k¿h-I-em-ime

BtKmfXm]-h¿≤-\hv

BtKmf A¥-co-£-Xm-]-\ne h¿≤n®p hcp-I-bm-Wv. C°-gn™ 100 h¿j°meØv

0.74 UnKn sk¬jykv BWv A¥-co£ Xm]-Øn¬ D≠m-b-I-b-‰w. kapZ \nc∏v 17

sk‚n-ao-‰¿ Db¿∂p. lnam\n (Glacier)Iƒ timjn°p-hm≥ XpS-ßn, Nne-bn-S-ß-

fn¬ AXn-th-K-Øn¬ (Nn-X-߃ 1,2,3) C¥y-bpsS A¥-co£ Xm]-\n-e-bnepw Db¿®-

bp-≠m-bn. CtX \q‰m≠v ImeØv C¥y-bnepw, tIc-f-Ønepw ][m-\-ambn c≠p-X-

c-Øn-ep≈ Imem-h-ÿm-hy-Xn-bm-\-ß-fmWv kw -hn-®-Xv. H∂mw-Xcw:˛ Imem-hÿm

LS-I-ß-fn¬ GXm\pw Zi-h¿jw \o≠p-\n¬°p∂ G‰-°p-d-®n-ep-Iƒ. c≠mw Xcw:-

NnXw 1: icm-icn BtKmf D]-cn-Xe Xm]-\n-e-bn-ep-≠mb hyXn-bm\w

122

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

˛ Htc Zni-bn-ep≈ Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm-\w, Zo¿L-Im-e-b-f-hn¬ (Trends)A¥-co-

£-Øn¬ kzm`m-hnI(Natural)ImcW߃sIm≠p D≠m-Ip∂ am‰-ß-fpw, BtKmfXm-

]-h¿≤-\-hp-sIm≠p≠m-Ip∂ am‰-ßfpw IqSn-b-XmWv Imem-h-ÿm-hy-Xn-bm-\-߃.

BtKmfXm-]-h¿≤-\-hn¬ a\p-jy-\n¿Ωn-X-amb lcn-X-hm-X-I-߃°p Imcy-amb ]¶p-

NnXw 2: BtKmf kapZ Pe \nc-∏n-ep≈ icm-icn Db¿®

NnXw 3

123

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

s≠∂v CubnsS ]kn-≤o-I-cn®IPCC-4dnt∏m¿ v hy‡-am-°n. lcnX hmX-I-߃

Hmtcm∂nt‚bpw ]¶v NnXw ˛ 4 ImWn-°p-∂p. A¥-co-£-hpw, kap-Z-hpw, Icbpw,

IS¬ln-a-°-´-Ifpw XΩn-ep≈ At\ym\y ]Inb hgn-bm-Wv, lcn-X-hm-X-I-߃

A¥-co-£-Øn¬ IqSp-tºmƒ A¥-co£ Xm]-\ne h¿≤n-°p-∂-Xv. Imem-h-ÿbv°p

hyXn-bm-\-߃ D≠m-Ip-∂-Xpw. Cu ]In-b-Iƒ Iºyq- ¿ tamU¬ D]-tbmKn®p

A¥-co-£-Ønse lcn-X-hm-X-I-ß-fpsS Awiw Hmtcm sIm√hpw Hcp sNdnb iX-

am\w h¿≤n-∏n®v AXn-th-K-X-bp≈ Iºyq- ¿ kwhn-[m-\-ß-fpsS (Super computers)klm-b-tØmSpIqSn A\p-I-cn®v(Coupled global modelling)]e imkvX-tI-µ-ß-

fn¬ \S-Ønb Kth-j-W-߃ hgn-bm-WvIPCC - 4]Jym-]n® \nK-a-\-ß-fn¬ FØn-

t®¿∂-Xv. Imem-h-ÿm-hy-Xn-bm-\-Ønepw BtKmfXm-]-h¿≤-\-hnepw ]¶p tNcp∂

LS-I-߃ NnXw ˛5 ¬ ImWmw.

")+

,

-.&

/+

01

2.&

/#+

NnXw 4: BtKmfXm-] -h¿≤-\-hn¬ lcn-X-hm-X-I-߃°p ]¶v

NnXw 5: Imem-h-ÿm-hy-Xn-bm-\-Ønepw BtKmfXm-]-h¿≤-\-hnepw

]¶p tNcp∂ LS-I-߃

124

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

Ime-h¿jw C¥y-bn-epw, tIc-f-Ønepw

C¥y-bnse hm¿jn-I-a-g-bpsS 75 iX-am-\-tØmfw e`n-°p-∂Xv sX°p ]Sn-™m-

d≥ a¨kq¨ AYhm Ime-h¿j-Im-e-Øm-Wv. Pq¨ 01 apX¬ sk]vXw-_¿ 30 hsc-

bmWv Ime-h¿j-°m-ew. Cu \mep-am-k-ß-fn¬ C¥ybv°p In´p∂ ag-bpsS Afhn¬

hnhn[ h¿j-ß-fn¬ G‰-°p-d-®n-ep-Iƒ D≠m-Im-dp-≠v. CXns\ A¥-cm-h¿j-hy-Xn-

bm\w F∂p hnti-jn-∏n-°mw. Ime-h¿jw tIc-f-Øn¬ XpS-ßp-∂-Xv, Ign™ 100

h¿jsØ icm-icn ]Im-cw, Pq¨ 01 \mWv (A-Xp-sIm≠mImw CS-h-∏mXn F∂

t]cv Ime-h¿j-Øn\p e`n-®-Xv). Cu Xob-Xn-bnepw A¥-cm-h¿j-hy-Xn-bm-\-ß-fp-

≠v. 1918˛ ¬ sabv 11˛ \pw (G‰hpw t\c-sØ) 1972 ¬ Pq¨ 18 \pw (G-‰hpw sshIn)

BWv Ime-h¿jm-cw- w tIc-f-Øn¬. tIc-f-Øn¬ ag XpS-ßn-b-Xn-\p-tijw 30- 40

Znh-k-߃ thWw hSt°m v ]c∂v C¥y apgp-h\pw Ime-h¿j-ag hym]n-°p-hm≥.

sk]vXw-_¿ ]Ip-Xn-tbmSpIqSn hSt° C¥y-bn¬ \n∂p Ime-h¿jw ]n≥hm-ßp-

hm≥ XpS-ßpw. tIc-f-Øn¬ \mep-amkw \o≠p-\n¬°p-sa-¶nepw Ime-h¿j-ag C¥y-

bpsS hS°p ]Sn-™m-d≥ `mKßfn¬ tIhew c≠p-am-k-tØmfta e`n-°m-dp-≈p.

tIc-f-Øn¬ Ime-h¿jw Bcw- n-°p∂ XobXn(Date of Monsoon onset over Kerala)NnXw ˛ 6 ¬ sImSpØn-cn-°p-∂p. 20- mw \q‰m-≠ns‚ XpS-°-Øn¬ Ime-h¿jw Pq¨

BZysØtbm c≠m-a-tØ-tbm BgvN-bn-emWv tIc-f-Øn¬ Bcw- n-®n-cp-∂-Xv. 1950 ˛

60 Ifn¬ Ime-h¿jw sabv 20 \v apºmbn tIc-f-Øn¬ hcp-hm≥ XpS-ßn. Ime-h¿j

Bcw` XobXn ]n∂oSv Pq¨ ˛ 1 t\mSp ASpØp h∂p XpS-ßn. Cu hyXn-bm\w

H∂mw Xc-Øn¬s∏-Sp-∂-Xm-Wv.

4-May

9-May

14-May

19-May

24-May

29-May

3-Jun

8-Jun

13-Jun

18-Jun

23-Jun

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Years

Dat

es

Mean onset date = 1st June

NnXw 6: tIc-f-Øn¬ Ime-h¿jw Bcw- n-°p∂ XobXn

C¥ybv°p e`n-°p∂ Ime-h¿j-a-g-bpsS Af-hn-epw, Zo¿L-Ime hyXn-bm-\-ß-

fp-≠v. Hcp Pn-√-bn¬ H∂p F∂ IW-°n¬ 306 ag-am-]n-\n-I-fpsS Af-hp-Iƒ D]tbmKn®p

Pq¨ 01 apX¬ sk]vXw-_¿ 30 hsc-bp≈ C¥ybv°p e`n-°p∂ ag-bpsS Afhv

125

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

IW-°m-°-s∏-Sp-∂p. ]q\-bnse (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)bnse

Kth-j-I¿ D≠m-°n -sb-SpØ Cu kqNnI Ah-cpsS sh_v ssk‰n¬

(www.tropmet.res.in)e`y-am-Wv. Ign™ 100 sIm√ ImesØ ag-bpsS Afhv NnXw

˛ 7 ¬ ImWmw. 10 iX-am\w ag-°p-d-hp≈ h¿j-߃ hcƒ®mh¿j-߃ F∂p IW-

°m-°-s∏-Sp-∂p. hcƒ®m-h¿j-ß-fn¬ Hcp Zo¿L-Im-e-hy-Xnbm\w ImWmw. H∂mw

Xc-Øn-ep-≈-Xv. XpS¿∂p≈ aq∂v Zi-h¿j-Im-eØv aq∂p-h¿j-Øn-semcn°¬ F∂

tXmXn¬ hcƒ®m h¿j-ß-fp-≠m-Ip-∂p. ASpØ aq∂v Zi-h¿j-ß-fn¬ hcƒ® 15˛

¬ Hcp h¿jta D≠m-Ip-∂p-≈p. Cu ]Xn- mkw 1840 ˛ ¬ ag-am-]n-\n-Iƒ ÿm]n®p

XpS-ßn-bXp apX¬ I≠p-h-cp-∂p-≠v. Imc-W-߃ Adn-bp-hm≥ Kth-j-W-߃ \S-

°p-∂p-≠v.

NnXw 7: 1875 apX¬ 2002 hsc C¥y-bn¬ e`n® ag-bpsS Afhv

C¥y-bpsS Ime-h¿j-a-gbv°v c≠m-asØ Xc-Øn-ep≈ Zo¿L-Ime hyXn-bm\w

CXp-hsc hfsc Ipd™ tXmXnemWv D≠m-bn- p-≈-Xv. F∂m¬ tIc-f-Øns‚ Ime-

h¿jag Imcy-ambn Ipd™psIm≠ncn-°p-I-bm-Wv. ]tXy-In®p sX°≥ tIc-f-Øn¬.

Cu Zo¿L-Ime ag Ipd-™p-sIm≠ncn-°p∂ hyXn-bm\w (c≠mw Xc-Øn-ep-≈Xv)

G‰hpw A[nIw ImWp∂Xv B\-a-e-bpsS ]Sn-™m-d≥ sNcn-hp-I-fn-em-Wv, ]tXy-

In®p \ΩpsS Ge-a-e-bn¬ NnXw ˛ 8 ¬ ]ocp-ta- n¬ e`n® Hmtcm h¿jsØ Ime-

h¿j-a-g-bpsS Afhv ImWn-®n-cn-°p-∂p. 100 sIm√Øn¬ 26 iX-am\w F∂

tXmXnemWv AhnsS ag Ipd-™n-cn-°p-∂-Xv. NnXw ˛ 9 ¬ ]›n-a-L- -Øns‚ km‰-

sse‰v D]-tbmKn® Af∂ Db-c-hy-Xymk-߃ ImWm-hp-∂-Xm-Wv. ae-bpsS sNcn-hp-

I-fn¬ \n∂v \ap°p [mcmfw ag e`n-°p-∂p. CXmWv \ap°v \jvS-s∏- p-sIm≠ncn-

°p∂Xv.

126

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

Trend : y = -1.1047x + 469.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999

Years

An

nu

al R

ain

fall

(cm

)

Mean =416.7 cm

Peermade Taluka

NnXw 8: ]ocp-ta- n¬ e`n® Hmtcm h¿jsØ Ime-h¿j-a-g-bpsS Afhv

NnXw 9: ]›n-a-L- -Øns‚ km‰-sse‰v D]-tbmKn® Af∂ Db-c-hy-Xymk-߃

Npgens°mSp¶m-‰p-Iƒ C¥y≥ IS-ep-I-fn¬

Ad-_n-°-S-en-epw, _wKmƒ Dƒ°-S-enepw D≠m-Ip∂ Npg-en-s°mSp¶m-‰p-I-sf-

°p-dn®v 1891 apX¬ \ap°p hni-Z-amb hnh-c-ß-fp-≠v. Ch D≠m-Ip-∂Xv ][m-\-

ambpw Ime-h¿j-Øn\p apºp≈ G]n¬, sabvam-k-ß-fn-epw, AXn-\p-ti-j-ap≈

HIvtSm_¿, \hw-_¿, Unkw-_¿ amk-ß-fn-ep-am-Wv. 100 h¿jsØ icm-icn IW-

°-\p-k-cn®v Ad-_n-°-S-enepw, _wKmƒ Dƒ°-S-enepw IqSn B≠n¬ 6 Npg-en-

s°mSp¶m-‰p-I-fmWv D≠m-Ip-∂-Xv. F∂m¬ Cu FÆØn\p H∂mw-X-c-Øn-ep≈ Hcp

127

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

hyXn-bm\w ImWm-\p-≠v. (Nn-Xw- 10). Cu hyXn-bm\Øns‚ Bh¿Ø\ ssZ¿Lyw

GI-tZiw 36 h¿j-amWv F∂p ]T-\-߃ kqNn-∏n-°p-∂p. 1970 Xnt\mSSp-Øp≈

h¿j-ß-fn¬ hf-sc-tbsd sImSp¶m-‰p-Iƒ D≠m-bn-s°m≠ncp-∂p. 1990 t\mSSp-Øp≈

h¿j-ß-fn¬ sImSp¶m-‰p-I-fpsS FÆw hfsc Ipd-™p. Ct∏mƒ ho≠pw sImSp¶m-

‰p-I-fpsS FÆw (hm¿jn-Iw) IqSn-s°m≠ncn-°p-I-bm-Wv. Kth-jWßfn¬ \n∂p

thsdmcp hnhcw IqSn e`n-®n- p-≠v. AXni‡-amb sImSp¶m-‰p-I-fpsS hm¿jnI FÆw

1891 apX¬ C∂p-hsc ItaW IqSn-s°m≠p hcp-I-bm-Wv. CXv c≠m-asØ Xc-Øn-

ep≈ hyXn-bm-\amWv.

I\Ø ag

2005 Pqsse 26- mw XobXn apwss_ alm-\-K-c-Øn¬ hnam-\-Øm-h-f-Øn\p Np‰p-

ap≈ ]tZ-iØv 24 aWn-°q-dn-\p-≈n¬ 94 sk‚o-ao-‰¿ ag s]øp-I-bp-≠m-bn. [mcmfw

sISp-Xn-Iƒ°pw sh≈-s∏m-°-Øn\pw AXp Imc-W-am-bn. BtKm-f-X-e-Øn¬ Cu

Xc-Øn-ep≈ Hcp Znh-k-Øn¬ s]øp∂ I\Ø ag kw`h-߃ IqSn hcp-I-bm-

sW∂v IPCC dnt∏m¿´n¬ kqNn-∏n-®n- p-≠v. C¥y≥ Imem-hÿ Un∏m¿´p-sa‚ v(In-dia Meteorological Department) c≠m-bn-c-tØmfw hcp∂ agam]n-\n-I-fn¬ \n∂p

tiJ-cn-°p∂ 24 aWn-°q¿ ag-bpsS Af-hp-Iƒ hni-I-e\w sNbvXp. GI-tZiw

100 x 100 Intem-ao-‰¿ hnkvXo¿Æw hcp∂ KnÕp-I-fnse ag-bmbn am‰n Hcp data setD≠m-°n-bn- p-≠v. AXn¬ 1951 apX¬ 2003 hsc-bp≈ ssZ\nI ag-bpsS IW-°p-Iƒ

D≠v. Cudatakap-®bw D]-tbm-Kn®p [mcmfw ]T-\-߃ \S-∂p-sIm-≠n-cn-°p-∂p.

Aßn-s\-bp≈ Hcp ]T-\-Øn¬ \n∂p Ime-h¿j-Im-eØv I\Ø ag s]øp∂ Znh-

k-߃ IqSn-s°m-≠p-h-cp-I-bmWv (c-≠m-aØ Xc-Øn-ep≈ hyXn-bm-\w) F∂p a\-

n-em-bn-cn-°p-∂p. Cu hnh-c-߃ NnXw 11 ¬ ImWmw. Kth-j-I¿ hni-I-e\w

sNbvXXv `q]-S-Øn¬ ImWn® NXp-c-Øn-ep≈ ÿesØ KnÕv t]mbn‚p-I-fnse

ag-bm-Wv.

NnXw 10: C¥y≥ IS-ep-I-fn¬ Hmtcm h¿j-hp-ap-≠m-Ip∂Npgen sImSp-¶m-‰p-I-fpsS FÆw (1891 apX¬ 1998 hsc)

128

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

3 4&

#

!

NnXw 11: 1950 apX¬ 2000 hsc-bp≈ h¿j-ß-fnsessZ\nI ag-bpsS IW°v (tKm-km-anbpw Iq´cpw 2006)

Difference of June-Sept Sea Surface Temperature (1999-2003) minus (1950-1954) from Joseph and Sabin (2008)Difference of June-Sept Sea Surface Temperature (1999-2003) minus (1950-1954) from Joseph and Sabin (2008)

NnXw 12

Xoh-K-Xn-bn-ep≈ Xm]-h¿≤\ C¥ym-a-lm-k-ap-Z-Øn¬

BtKm-f-Xm-]-h¿≤-\-hn¬ kap-Z-Øns‚ D]-cn-X-e-Xm-]-am-\hpw h¿≤n-®p-h-cp-I-

bm-Wv. F∂m¬ C¥ym-a-lm-k-ap-Z-Øns‚ `qa-≤y-tc-J-°-Sp-Øp≈ Hcp henb ]tZ-

iØp D]-cn-X-e-Xm]w hfsc thK-Øn¬ IpXn®pb-cp-I-bmWv F∂v Af-hp-I-fn¬

\n∂p a\- n-em-bn-cn-°p-∂p. (NnXw 12, 13). Cu teJ-I\pw dnk¿®v kvtImf¿

k_n≥ Sn.-]n.bpw tN¿∂p CuønsS \S-Ønb Kth-j-W-Øn¬ \n∂p [mcmfw hnh-

129

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

Trend line : y = 0.0226x + 27.741

27

27.4

27.8

28.2

28.6

29

29.4

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

SS

T (

°C

)

NnXw 13

Mean U=9.45m/sTrend line: y = -0.0312x + 10.309

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

U W

ind

(m

/s)

NnXw 14: C¥y-bn¬ IqSn Hgp-Ip∂ Ime-h¿j-]-hm-lw(Im‰v 1950 apX¬ 2003 hsc)

c-߃ e`n-®n- p-≠v. C¥y≥ kapZ Xm]-h¿≤-\hv \ΩpsS Ime-h¿j-tØbpw kao]

ÿe-Øp≈ A¥-co-£-D-∂-X-Xe sP‰v kvSoap-I-tfbpw kmc-ambn hyXym-k-s∏-

SpØns°m≠n-cn-°p-∂p. C¥y-bn¬ IqSn Hgp-Ip∂ Ime-h¿j-]-hm-l-Øns‚ (Im-‰v)

i‡n ItaW Ipd-™p-h-cp-I-bmWv (c-≠m-asØ Xc-e-Øn-ep≈ hyXn-bm-\w). Ime-

h¿j-Im-eØp _wKmƒ Dƒ°-S-en¬ D¬`hn-°p∂ a¨kq¨ Un]-j-Wp-I-fpsS

FÆ-Ønepw kmc-amb Ipdhv h∂p-sIm-≠n-cn-°p-I-bm-Wv. (NnXw 14, 15, 16) a¨kq¨

Un]-j-Wp-I-fpsS FÆ-Øn¬ c≠mw Xcw hyXn-bm-\-Øn-\p-]p-d-ta, sImSp-¶m-‰p-I-

sf-t∏m-se-bp≈ Hcp 36 h¿j (H-∂mw-X-cw) hyXn-bm-\-hp-ap≠v.

Ime-h¿j-Øns‚ \ne-\n¬∏n\v Hcp Dujva F≥Pn≥(Heat Engine)A¥-co-£-

Øn¬ ]h¿Øn-°p∂p≠v. F≥Pn≥ ]h¿Øn-°p∂-Xn\v th≠ NqSns‚ Dd-hnSw

C¥y≥ alm-k-ap-Z-Øns‚ hS-°p- m-KØpw ASp-Øp≈ Ic-bn-ep-amWv ÿnXn sNøp-

130

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

NnXw 16

Mean = 6 depressionsTrend line :- y = -0.1217x + 9.3899Corr.Coeff. = -0.70

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

No.

of d

epre

ssio

ns

NnXw 15: Ime-h¿j-Im-eØp _wKmƒ Dƒ°-S-en¬ D¬`hn-°p∂

a¨kq¨ Un]-j-Wp-I-fpsS FÆ-w

14 Km asl zonal wind in m/s of July and August (1950 -1959)at top and (1990-1999)at bottom (NCEP data) Weakening of the Tropical Easterly Jetstream is seen.

131

Imem-hÿm hyXn-bm\w

∂-Xv. NqSns‚ Hcp ][m-\-]¶v e`n-°p-∂Xv \ocmhn Ime-h¿j-ta-L-ß-fn¬ sh≈-

ambn amdp-tºmƒ ]pdw-X-≈-s∏-Sp∂ Kp]vX Dujvaw(latent heat)BWv. `qa≤y tcJ-

°-SpØv C¥ym-a-l-k-ap-Z-D-]-cn-X-e-Xm-]-\ne Db-cp-tºmƒ B ]tZ-iØv ag h¿≤n-

°p-Ibpw Hcp NqSns‚ Dd-hnSw AhnsS krjvSn-°-s∏-Sp-Ibpw sNøp-∂p. CXp Ime-

h¿j-Xm-]-b-¥-hp-ambn a’-cn-°p-∂-Xp-sIm-≠mWv ta¬]-d™ hyXn-bm-\-߃ kw -

hn-®p-sIm-≠n-cn-°p-∂Xv F∂mWv A\p-am-\w.