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EeMAP Belgium Case Study Roundtable

The EeMAP event is kindly hosted by

15 November 2017, Brusselswww.energyefficientmortgages.eu

1

Welcome• Marc Dillen, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouw

EeMAP Overview• Luca Bertalot, EMF-ECBC

Realistic estimation of energy saving potentials of buildings• Gert Huybrechts, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouw• Ruben Decuypere, Wetenschappelijk en Technisch Centrum voor

het Bouwbedrijf

Thermal Renovation of Buildings: Wienerberger’s business case • Hans Cools, Wienerberger Belgium

Agenda (I)

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

1

Green Buildings: Knauf Insulation’s business case • Barry Lynham, Knauf Insulation

BENOVEREN and Building Passport• Jochen De Smet, Kabinet Tommelein

Energy Efficiency: Bank Perspective• Jean Louis De Valck, Febelfin / UPC• Viviane Meynen, Belfius Bank

Round-Table Discussion

Conclusions & Next Steps• Luca Bertalot, EMF-ECBC

Agenda (II)

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WelcomeMarc Dillen, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouw

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

EeMAP OverviewLuca Bertalot, EMF-ECBC

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Energy efficient Mortgages Action Plan (EeMAP) Initiative

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Reduced emissionsReduced

energy infrastructure

costs

Reduced unwanted mobility

Local spending

Improved community appearance

Local employment

Improved human health

Fewer energy subsidies

Higher property

values

Specific benefits from energy efficiency (EE) in households

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How can banks play a game changing role in improving Energy Efficiency?

More than 350 million live under their own

roof

247 million dwellings

510 million people

more than 220 million dwellings were built

before 2001

7498 MFIs and

188,109 branches

On average each branch

serves around

2,700 people

Private financing

In the EU 28 there are… …of which

This initiative has huge potential!

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List of Banks Involved in EeMAP initiative ABN Amro BNP Paribas ING Münchener

Hypothekenbank UniCredit Crédit Foncier de

France Barclays Berlin Hyp Crédit Agricole CIB Volksbank Bozen Caja Rural de Navarra

Cooperative Central Bank Cyprus

NIBC Bank N.V. Obvion Hypotheken Crelan BBVA JP Morgan Banca Monte dei

Paschi di Siena Fannie Mae DBS Bank Singapore Japan Housing

Finance Agency HSBC KBC

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Objective & Underlying Business Case

The ultimate objective is a pan-European private bank financingmechanism, based on a standardised approach, to encourage energyefficient improvement by households of the EU’s housing stock by way offinancial incentives linked to the mortgage, and in this way support the EUin meeting its energy savings targets.

Independent from, but complementary to, public funds or tax incentives

Underlying business case

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Underlying risk parameters impacted by EE

Retrofitting impacts positively on property valueensuring wealth conservation & loss mitigation bypreventing “brown discount”

EE leads to a reduction in the impact of energycosts to income, reducing borrowers‘ probabilityof default

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Incentive ChainBorrower: - Lower energy bills- Energy Efficiency Behaviour- Lower interest rate on mortgage for energy efficient property- Free capital for retrofitting

Issuer/Originator:- Access to funding cost advantages-Increased loss mitigation capacity- Lower capital requirements as a result of lower PD- Reputational benefits

Investor:- Diversification of investor portfolio- Allocation of energy efficient investment buckets- Green added value vs brown discount

SME/ Real Economy: - SMEs active in the retrofitting of buildings and dwellings to become more energy efficient - Juncker Plan

Society:- Reduction in energy consumption- Wealth conservation- Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

Government:- Pan European plan to stimulate energy efficient investment in residential property- Improvement of existing housing stock- Compliance with 1997 Kyoto Protocol – COP21- Access to quantitative & qualitative database on energy efficient mortgages & covered bonds

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

EE Impact on Properties?

Every time a house moves up a notch in energy performance, its price getsaround the same boost that it would from an extra 10-15 m² in size

EE jump = Gain of €24,000 over 30 years: A renovated house that moves from an ‘E’ to a ‘B’ notch in its energy

performance certificate (EPC) will save an estimated €24,000 over 30 yearsaccording to an analysis of 365,00 house sales in Denmark last year

EE notch= €5,400/€7,400 for an average 100 m² property: Each one-notch energy improvement from G-A is worth between €5,400-7,400

to an average 100 m² property according to a Copenhagen Economics Study forthe Danish Energy Agency

Correlation between EE and sale price? A European Commission assessment in 2013 found that in Vienna, a one-

notch EPC improvement corresponded with an 8% rise in the sale price. InFlanders (BE), the equivalent of a one-notch upgrade was found to trigger a4.4% rise in property value, while for Marseille and Lille (FR), the figure was4.3%. www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Broader Perspective

Better Risk Management: Lower Credit Risk: Due to reduced probability of default and loss given

default Lower Asset Risk: Due to “green value” and protection against “brown

discount” Lower Performance Risk: Due to robust assessment of EE improvement

ensuring lower energy consumption and ”green value”

Financial Stability: Increased due diligence for consumers, issuers and investors De-risking of banks' balance sheets and management of non-performing

loans Enhanced transparency and pricing in the market

Jobs and Growths: Improvement in private investment in EE improvement via retrofitting Support for SMEs and contribution to job agenda under Junker Plan

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Methodology - Financing mechanism

Key challenge: to incentivise energy efficient investment in existing dwellings, whichconstitute bulk of EU housing stock

Based on a set of EE indicators, lenders could offer: New Builds: Discount in interest rate for new builds with energy rating A+/A or B; Existing property: Discount in interest rate according to improvement in energy rating

of property between D and A/A+

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16

𝑇𝑇0 𝑇𝑇1

EE Renovation

Energy efficiency advisor (EEA) to advise on:1. Necessary EE

renovation2. Complementary

funding sources (subsidies)

Mortgage application

Before EE Renovation

SME carries out EE renovation, guaranteeing performance

After EE Renovation

Bridging Renovation Gap - In Practice

Mortgage granted & EE top-up provided directly to SME

Ex ante Valuation of property

Qualified SME selected by bank to carry out EE renovation

Bank grants preferential interest rate on mortgage based on EE/smart meter

EEA certifies EE renovations in line with EE requirements

Ex post valuation of property

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EE & Mortgage Lending & Covered Bond Value Chain

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EeMAP Pilot Phase: Existing Data Analysis & Operational Test Phase

Phase 1: Analysis of Existing Data:• Substantiation of business case• Focus on correlation between EE

and LGD & PD

Phase 2: Operational Test Phase:• Deployment of valuation

instructions & EE indicators• Origination of EE mortgage product• Potential involvement of EIB/EIF• Data collection

June 2017

June 2018

May 2019

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How to solve the ‘chicken & egg’ dilemma

Assets Liabilities

EE mortgages• collateral

EE bonds• Covered Bonds• Securitisation

European Investment Fund (EIF)

European Investment Bank (EIB)

Investor Demand

National Promoting Banks:Green Purchase Programs

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Covered Bond Label: Sustainable Covered Bonds

The

Labe

lled

Sust

aina

ble

Cove

red

Bond

Def

init

ion

EeMAP Website: http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/

EeMAP 2-page Introduction:http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/EeMAP-Two-page-introduction.pdf

EeMAP Emerging Analysis: http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Emerging-Analysis-1.pdf

EeMAP Upcoming Events: http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/?page_id=1016

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 746205.www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

EeMAP White Paper Overview of current practices in relation to finance, energy efficiency indicators,

property valuation and the impact of energy efficiency on risk management

Key recommendations towards the creation of an Energy Efficient Mortgageproduct for Europe

1. A simple & standardised framework for Energy Efficient Mortgage to helpmarket entry allowing for national heterogeneity, with guidance on theunderlying finance mechanism

2. A clear definition of an Energy Efficient Mortgage to enable banks todifferentiate between energy efficient and conventional mortgages in theirrisk management processes

3. Energy efficiency in property valuations. To ensure that energy efficiency isappropriately taken account of in property valuations, banks should beguided on how and what to instruct property valuers in relation to energyperformance of buildings

4. Simple and proportionate energy efficiency performance indicators, withflexibility to take account of differences between current national approaches

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The EeMAP White Paper is available on the EeMAP website: http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EeMAP-White-Paper.pdf

The Energy efficient Mortgages Action Plan – EeMAP - is an initiative by:

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 746205.www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Realistic estimation of energy saving potentials of buildings

Gert Huybrechts, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouwgg

Ruben Decuypere, Wetenschappelijk en Technisch Centrum voor het Bouwbedrijf

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

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Roadmap for qualitative energetic renovations:Towards a streamlined and achievement-oriented workflow

VIS-Traject 120784

Increased financing for renovations through energy savingsEeMAP event – 15/11/2017

Gert Huybrechts (VCB – Flemish Construction Confederation)Ruben Decuypere, Jeroen Van Der Veken (BBRI – Belgian Building Research Institute)

27

Client & market

RenoSave: Client-tool

Can I save money by renovating my

house?

Reno-Pro

How can I optimise the

cost-efficiency?

RenoSave: Bank-tool= ReCalculator

How can I finance my renovation

project?

Diagnosis-tool + Design guide +

Interaction-Matrix

Which renovation measures are

possible?

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RenoFase-tools

• RenoSave ‘Bouwherentool’ (Client-tool)– Objective: first estimate of savings potential of renovation project– Target group: clients and construction professionals– Data input:

• No preliminary analysis required• Data input tailored for the ‘non-expert’• No investment costs needed

– Result: realistic monthly energy savings for package of renovation measures

29

RenoFase-tools

• Reno-Pro– Objective: optimisation of renovation design– Target group: architects, general contractors– Result: renovation design optimised for minimal TCO (NPV)– Disadvantage: expert tool: much technical and cost data needed

(incl. investment cost of measures)

30

RenoFase-tools

• RenoSave ‘Bank-tool’ – ReCalculator (VCB)– Objective: Realistic and certified estimation of energy savings through renovation– Target group: banks and clients who can’t borrow enough for financing their

energetic renovation project based on conventional assessment method– Executors: EPC-experts with additional training– Data input: 2 newly created Energy Performance Certificates ‘before’ and ‘after’

renovation– Result: montly energy savings– Methodology developed within RenoFase research project

• Reliable results• Results comparable with other modules

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RenoSave:Bank-tool= ReCalculator (VCB)

How can I finance my renovation

project?

050

100150200250300350400

VOOR NA

Ener

gy c

ost[

€/m

onth

] Theoretisch Verbruik

Realistisch Verbruik

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Tota

l liv

ing

expe

nses

[€/m

onth

]

Lening Renovatie

Energielast/maand

Lening Aankoop

Theoretical savings

Realistic savings

Part of renovation loan financedthrough realistic energy savings

Renovation loan

Maximum repayment capacity

105 €/m = 20 k€ extracapital over 20 years

Financing of renovation loan

Theoretical savings

Realistic savings

Loan for renovation

Energy cost/month

Loan for acquisition

BEFORE AFTER

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Realistic energy savings?

• Based on statistical analysis of +10000 data points

Etheor

UM

Before renovation

Evoor,real Ena,real

Besparing

Monte Carlo

Etheor

UM

After renovation

PedPed

RenoSave:Bankentool/ReCalculator (VCB)

EPC-software

33

Realistic energy savings Heating ?

• Based on statistical analysis of +10000 data points– Dataset reduced to central 60% (20 to 80-percentile)– Monte-Carlo-simulation with certain correlation between energy consumption before and after

renovation rho=0.9 rho=0.5

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Realistic energy savings Hot Water ?

• Large dispersion on hot water usage per person vs. 1 value based on house volume

25%

70%

110%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Δ E epc Δ E real

Δ E epc minimum average maximum

one value

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RenoSave: ReCalculator

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RenoSave ‘Bankentool’

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RenoSave ‘Bankentool’

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RenoSave: ‘Bankentool’

• Input purely theoretical– Results independent of occupants

(same occupants before and after renovation)– Range allows for taking into account user behaviour/comfort level

• Yearly energy savings – Exposure to energy price fluctuations decreases with increasing energy

efficiency

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8 real renovations calculated with the ReCalculator

€ -60

€ -40

€ -20

€ -

€ 20

€ 40

€ 60

€ 80

€ 100

€ 120

€ 140

€ 160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Range monthly savings Average monthly savings Theoretical monthly savings

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ReCalculator (VCB) : Certificate

Certificaat

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ReCalculator (VCB)

• Framework for certification to be developed in collaboration with BCCA & VCB– Using official EPC-certification– Quality framework for training, examination, implementation, reporting– Monitoring of input and process by BCCA & VCB (cf. STS cavity walls, airtightness,

ventilation, …) – Legal framework– Tool freely available (www.renofase.be/renosave), certification only when

necessary

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Questions/Remarks?

• For questions or remarks:– Gert.Huybrechts@vcb.be 02/545 57 49

– Jeroen.Van.der.Veken@bbri.be 02/655 77 11– Jeroen.Vrijders@bbri.be 02/655 77 11– Ruben.Decuypere@bbri.be 02/655 77 11

Thermal Renovation of Buildings: Wienerberger’s business case

qq

Hans Cools, Wienerberger Belgiumgg

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

INVESTMENT WITH YIELD OF 20%

Renovation of a typical terraced house – Case study

1997 2017

4.5 mdwellings

5.4 mdwellings

New build (1.0 m)

Renovation (0.5 m)

SOURCE: FOD Economy

0,7%

10% 90% 20% 80% 50% 50% 70% 30%

DOUBLEGLASS

NO

SOURCE: Renovatiebarometer Vlaanderen

FLOORINSULATION

WALLINSULATION

ROOFINSULATION

YES

limited space

attached houses

destructive environment

expensive location

rental housing

‘low’ energy consumption

1. BUILDING ENVELOPE

- Insulation façade + finishing

- Windows

- Insulation pitched roof + finishing

- Veranda full annexe

2. EXTRA IMPROVEMENTS

- Floors

- Ventilation system

- Interior finishing

- Electric equipment

- …

1

2

What will be the value on 15/11/2037?

Minimum new build

SOURCE: WTCB TV 246

SOURCE: www.energiegids.be

2006 20172007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0,6

0,40,32

0,24

Evolution U-values [W/m².K]

SOURCE: www.energiesparen.be

0,15

Minimize Energy demand

132

0,7%

€ 187.000

Real energy consumption: > 2000 EUR/year ?

PAYBACK PERIOD?

Total cost (VAT incl.)

Total renovation

Building envelope

1

2

45% of total cost

83.200 83.200Euro

Real energy consumption: > 2000 EUR/year ?

PAYBACK PERIOD?

Market value

After total renovation

After renovation building envelope67% of added value

175.000 325.000Euro

Before renovation

275.000

Added value vs. cost

EuroAdded value

due to renovationbuilding envelope

Cost renovationbuilding envelope

(TAV incl.)

100.000

83.200

51.400

36.300

21.500

Construction

Windows

Pitched roof

Façade

Renovation building envelope:an investment with yield of 20%

11/21/2017 Title of presentation

INVEST IN BUILDING ENVELOPE

• Trias Energetica

• Highest financial efficiency

• Value-proof investment

• Immediate and lifelong

• Biggest impact on comfort level

• ‘no evolution’ in U-values and K-peil (S-peil)

Green Buildings: Knauf Insulation’s business case

qq

Barry Lynham, Knauf Insulationgg

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

BENOVEREN and Building Passportqq

Jochen De Smet, Kabinet Tommeleingg

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Energy Efficiency: Bank Perspective

Jean Louis De Valck, Febelfin / UPCViviane Meynen, Belfius Bank

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Energy Efficient Mortgages Action Plan - EeMAP Initiative

in the Belgian contextJean-Louis De Valck

President of the Economic Working Group of UPC, constituent association of Febelfin

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

90

Introduction

EEMAP : an important project

Belgium can play an important role

Two aspects of EEMAP

Expectations of the Belgian financial sector ?

Needs ?

91

EEMAP : an important project Contribution of the financial sector to social welfare (Accords de Paris)

Meets the needs of the EE investors in the search for financing opportunities

An important project that requires : Multidisciplinary approach to the calculation of Energy Efficiency – that needs to be

interpreted with objectivity and adequacy

Different stakeholders that use the same coherent language with respect to new buildings and renovations

Customer/investor (homeowners, tenants, ...), single or housing, ...

Contractors

Flemish Construction Confederation (VCB)/Belgian Building Research Institute (BBRI) : E-calculator VCB ! (translation of EE in the EPC) – coaching/training EE for contractors

Real estate experts –architects, valuers, ...

Authorities (local, regional, federal)

Lenders

More than marketing solutions. Technical aspects must also be understandable to the customer 92

Belgium can play an important role

through a multidisciplinary approach

through the tool made by the BBRI

through a coherent multifunctional approach in a multicultural country

through a new pragmatic approach

93

Two aspects of the EEMAP project Credit aspect

Can the lender grant loans that are based on a leaner credit policy for EE credits? through lower DTI ratio requirements

through lower capital requirements for EE mortgage loans which allow higher LTVs

First figures show promising results

Our view? Lower DTI requirements

Responsibility of each lender, but difficulties regarding regulation might come up

Uncertain whether the very good PDs (probability of default) will be confirmed when EE credits will be extended to a larger target group

Lower LTV requirements

More opportunities, but this requires reconsidering our usual approach to valuation

Through better weightings for EE mortgages

Investment aspect: need to create a good market for securitisation and mortgage bonds Also requires possibilities of securitisation of consumer loans, that are frequently used in

Belgium for EE renovation investments

94

Lender grants loans up to 100 % LTV

Loan value will decrease more quickly than real estate value

In a normal situation :

|

LTV approach: bank risk

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Axi

s Ti

tle

Collateral value of a house under normal circumstances

Terugbetaald kapitaal

Waarde woning

Capital repaid

House value

If the mortgage must be reimbursed by collateral, the situation for the financial institution may be different for a non EE house

Now, selling price is mostly accepted as value price. However, experience has shown that this price is often overvalued. The NBB is concerned about potential bubbles and other elements that may destabilise the Belgian mortgage market

Some concerns exist about the large number of external refinancing operations over the past 3 years that have generated many new mortgage loans without actual new valuation of the assets (the accepted valuation made by the former lender is accepted by the new lender)

Non EE efficient mortgage: bank risk

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Axi

s Ti

tle

Collateral value of a house containing asbestos and inadequate

isolation

Terugbetaald kapitaal

Waarde woning

96

Capital repaid

House value

In summary: an EE mortgage is more likely to follow the first scenario

Non EE efficient mortgage: bank risk

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Axi

s Ti

tle

Collateral value of a house containing asbestos and

inadequate isolation

Terugbetaaldkapitaal

Waarde woning

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Axi

s Ti

tle

Collateral value of a house under normal circumstances

Terugbetaaldkapitaal

Waarde woning

97

House value

House value

Capital repaid

Capital repaid

Expectations from Belgian lenders ?

Continuously improve the tool objectively for new and existing buildings

Obtain a common definition of every stage in the Energy Efficiency valuation

A more uniform, objective and accurate EPC based on an agreement between all stakeholders

EPC must be used by valuer, architect, etc. to propose the necessary works, with an indication of costs and gains (in terms of EPC level from A to F or even more nuances?)

Each EPC level can be translated in a rating that symbolises the % of value left after 1 year (if the house is sold) : 100 % for an A or a B, 95 for a C, etc.

Different investments must be prioritised to allow consumer and lender to choose the best way to finance the investments

Obtain a better Basel coefficient for houses with a good EE level

Obtain good conditions for the emission of Green EE Bonds with mortgage loans and consumer loans

Government incentives should not lead to price increases, but must first of all benefit the consumer

To avoid real estate bubbles, buyers must be encouraged to be more selective and to value more correctly the investments they must make. This could be done with the help of a more consumer friendly EPC that gives a clear idea of the works necessary to obtain a higher energy efficiency level

98

Expectations from Belgian banks ? Government incentives ?

Create a data centre including EPC information for all real estate in Belgium and make it available to lenders, valuers, architects, etc.

EPC is a burden for the seller, not for the buyer. The seller can initiate the EPC the same way as ever, but the valuer must also mention the costs of improving the EE level, thus increasing the EPC’s efficiency for the buyer

That way, the EPC can help the buyer to negotiate a better price, whereas the seller will be more prudent in setting the price!

This may correct the market in a more neutral and objective way and avoid bubbles

Government incentives must be geared towards mortgage loans and consumer loans.In Belgium, many loans for EE investments are regulated by the Consumer Credit law and not necessarily by the Mortgage Credit Law

99

Conclusion Promising and exciting project for lenders

Aim for better evaluation of evolutions in real estate value, not only for existing loans, but also for EE mortgages

The government can help on many levels: valuers must be trained to ensure a uniform approach that takes into account (future) energy

improvements

Clear definition of an EE mortgage in a correct, uniform and objective EPC that also reflects investment costs to obtain a higher EE level

Creation of datafiles with follow-up of EPC certificates

100

Energy efficient Mortgages Action Plan - EeMAP Initiative

Belfius Energy Efficient Construction Loan

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Viv MeynenBelfius Bank

Belfius Energy Efficient Construction Loan- Context

in 2013 Belfius Bank signed an energy policy agreement with the Flemish government

with the objective of encouraging the construction of energy efficient homes through an advantageous credit offer

the EEC loan is intended exclusively for new constructions with an energy efficiency better than the standard

in 2013, E-level ≤ 50 (standard = 70)

since 2014, E-level ≤ 30 (standard = 60 (2014-2015) → 50 (since 2016))

1 out of 3 newly built homes are currently eligible

Belfius Energy Efficient Construction Loan- Loan modalities

interest benefit, granted as a conditional discount, on the full credit amount of the construction and for the full maturity

at the start of the loan, the discount is granted on the basis of the EPB-preliminary calculation

an EPC confirmation is required within the year after the loan is fully withdrawn

no interest rate increase in case of LTV> 80%

the evaluation of the repayment capacity takes into account the estimated energy savings

the energy savings are not part of the DTI calculation but constitute an element that the analyst takes into account in evaluating the global credit application

Findings and Reflections specific lending can be a leverage for energy-saving investments -> the financial

sector can make a useful contribution to encourage energy efficient improvement by households

customers are strongly interested in the benefits of energy efficient construction and the advantages of the EEC-loan

at the same time we notice that there still is a great unawareness about the possibilities of energy efficient construction and about the cost and return of energy-saving investments

energy efficiency is a complex and technical subject -> in order to develop a specific loan offer, the lender must be able to rely on:

an objective, uniform and understandable criterion of energy efficiency

for construction as well as for renovation

Findings and Reflections EEC loans show a lower probability of default

we notice a similar lower PD for our Eco-installment loans

our green loans from the period 2009-2011 also have a lower PD

until now, borrowers of our EE loans were mainly customers with a better risk profile

in order to take into account the higher property value and the higher disposable income in its credit policy, the lender must be able to rely on a uniform definition and an authorized calculation

in Belgium, an important share of renovation loans are concluded as installment loans, regulated by the consumer credit law

Roundtable Discussion

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu

Conclusions & Next StepsLuca Bertalot, EMF-ECBC

www.energyefficientmortgages.eu