EeMAP...2017/11/15 · 1 Welcome • Marc Dillen, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouw EeMAP Overview • Luca...
Transcript of EeMAP...2017/11/15 · 1 Welcome • Marc Dillen, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouw EeMAP Overview • Luca...
EeMAP Belgium Case Study Roundtable
The EeMAP event is kindly hosted by
15 November 2017, Brusselswww.energyefficientmortgages.eu
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Welcome• Marc Dillen, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouw
EeMAP Overview• Luca Bertalot, EMF-ECBC
Realistic estimation of energy saving potentials of buildings• Gert Huybrechts, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouw• Ruben Decuypere, Wetenschappelijk en Technisch Centrum voor
het Bouwbedrijf
Thermal Renovation of Buildings: Wienerberger’s business case • Hans Cools, Wienerberger Belgium
Agenda (I)
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Green Buildings: Knauf Insulation’s business case • Barry Lynham, Knauf Insulation
BENOVEREN and Building Passport• Jochen De Smet, Kabinet Tommelein
Energy Efficiency: Bank Perspective• Jean Louis De Valck, Febelfin / UPC• Viviane Meynen, Belfius Bank
Round-Table Discussion
Conclusions & Next Steps• Luca Bertalot, EMF-ECBC
Agenda (II)
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WelcomeMarc Dillen, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouw
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EeMAP OverviewLuca Bertalot, EMF-ECBC
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Energy efficient Mortgages Action Plan (EeMAP) Initiative
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Reduced emissionsReduced
energy infrastructure
costs
Reduced unwanted mobility
Local spending
Improved community appearance
Local employment
Improved human health
Fewer energy subsidies
Higher property
values
Specific benefits from energy efficiency (EE) in households
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How can banks play a game changing role in improving Energy Efficiency?
More than 350 million live under their own
roof
247 million dwellings
510 million people
more than 220 million dwellings were built
before 2001
7498 MFIs and
188,109 branches
On average each branch
serves around
2,700 people
Private financing
In the EU 28 there are… …of which
This initiative has huge potential!
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List of Banks Involved in EeMAP initiative ABN Amro BNP Paribas ING Münchener
Hypothekenbank UniCredit Crédit Foncier de
France Barclays Berlin Hyp Crédit Agricole CIB Volksbank Bozen Caja Rural de Navarra
Cooperative Central Bank Cyprus
NIBC Bank N.V. Obvion Hypotheken Crelan BBVA JP Morgan Banca Monte dei
Paschi di Siena Fannie Mae DBS Bank Singapore Japan Housing
Finance Agency HSBC KBC
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
Objective & Underlying Business Case
The ultimate objective is a pan-European private bank financingmechanism, based on a standardised approach, to encourage energyefficient improvement by households of the EU’s housing stock by way offinancial incentives linked to the mortgage, and in this way support the EUin meeting its energy savings targets.
Independent from, but complementary to, public funds or tax incentives
Underlying business case
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Underlying risk parameters impacted by EE
Retrofitting impacts positively on property valueensuring wealth conservation & loss mitigation bypreventing “brown discount”
EE leads to a reduction in the impact of energycosts to income, reducing borrowers‘ probabilityof default
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
Incentive ChainBorrower: - Lower energy bills- Energy Efficiency Behaviour- Lower interest rate on mortgage for energy efficient property- Free capital for retrofitting
Issuer/Originator:- Access to funding cost advantages-Increased loss mitigation capacity- Lower capital requirements as a result of lower PD- Reputational benefits
Investor:- Diversification of investor portfolio- Allocation of energy efficient investment buckets- Green added value vs brown discount
SME/ Real Economy: - SMEs active in the retrofitting of buildings and dwellings to become more energy efficient - Juncker Plan
Society:- Reduction in energy consumption- Wealth conservation- Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
Government:- Pan European plan to stimulate energy efficient investment in residential property- Improvement of existing housing stock- Compliance with 1997 Kyoto Protocol – COP21- Access to quantitative & qualitative database on energy efficient mortgages & covered bonds
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
EE Impact on Properties?
Every time a house moves up a notch in energy performance, its price getsaround the same boost that it would from an extra 10-15 m² in size
EE jump = Gain of €24,000 over 30 years: A renovated house that moves from an ‘E’ to a ‘B’ notch in its energy
performance certificate (EPC) will save an estimated €24,000 over 30 yearsaccording to an analysis of 365,00 house sales in Denmark last year
EE notch= €5,400/€7,400 for an average 100 m² property: Each one-notch energy improvement from G-A is worth between €5,400-7,400
to an average 100 m² property according to a Copenhagen Economics Study forthe Danish Energy Agency
Correlation between EE and sale price? A European Commission assessment in 2013 found that in Vienna, a one-
notch EPC improvement corresponded with an 8% rise in the sale price. InFlanders (BE), the equivalent of a one-notch upgrade was found to trigger a4.4% rise in property value, while for Marseille and Lille (FR), the figure was4.3%. www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
Broader Perspective
Better Risk Management: Lower Credit Risk: Due to reduced probability of default and loss given
default Lower Asset Risk: Due to “green value” and protection against “brown
discount” Lower Performance Risk: Due to robust assessment of EE improvement
ensuring lower energy consumption and ”green value”
Financial Stability: Increased due diligence for consumers, issuers and investors De-risking of banks' balance sheets and management of non-performing
loans Enhanced transparency and pricing in the market
Jobs and Growths: Improvement in private investment in EE improvement via retrofitting Support for SMEs and contribution to job agenda under Junker Plan
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Methodology - Financing mechanism
Key challenge: to incentivise energy efficient investment in existing dwellings, whichconstitute bulk of EU housing stock
Based on a set of EE indicators, lenders could offer: New Builds: Discount in interest rate for new builds with energy rating A+/A or B; Existing property: Discount in interest rate according to improvement in energy rating
of property between D and A/A+
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𝑇𝑇0 𝑇𝑇1
EE Renovation
Energy efficiency advisor (EEA) to advise on:1. Necessary EE
renovation2. Complementary
funding sources (subsidies)
Mortgage application
Before EE Renovation
SME carries out EE renovation, guaranteeing performance
After EE Renovation
Bridging Renovation Gap - In Practice
Mortgage granted & EE top-up provided directly to SME
Ex ante Valuation of property
Qualified SME selected by bank to carry out EE renovation
Bank grants preferential interest rate on mortgage based on EE/smart meter
EEA certifies EE renovations in line with EE requirements
Ex post valuation of property
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EE & Mortgage Lending & Covered Bond Value Chain
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EeMAP Pilot Phase: Existing Data Analysis & Operational Test Phase
Phase 1: Analysis of Existing Data:• Substantiation of business case• Focus on correlation between EE
and LGD & PD
Phase 2: Operational Test Phase:• Deployment of valuation
instructions & EE indicators• Origination of EE mortgage product• Potential involvement of EIB/EIF• Data collection
June 2017
June 2018
May 2019
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
How to solve the ‘chicken & egg’ dilemma
Assets Liabilities
EE mortgages• collateral
EE bonds• Covered Bonds• Securitisation
European Investment Fund (EIF)
European Investment Bank (EIB)
Investor Demand
National Promoting Banks:Green Purchase Programs
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www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
Covered Bond Label: Sustainable Covered Bonds
The
Labe
lled
Sust
aina
ble
Cove
red
Bond
Def
init
ion
EeMAP Website: http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/
EeMAP 2-page Introduction:http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/EeMAP-Two-page-introduction.pdf
EeMAP Emerging Analysis: http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Emerging-Analysis-1.pdf
EeMAP Upcoming Events: http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/?page_id=1016
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 746205.www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
EeMAP White Paper Overview of current practices in relation to finance, energy efficiency indicators,
property valuation and the impact of energy efficiency on risk management
Key recommendations towards the creation of an Energy Efficient Mortgageproduct for Europe
1. A simple & standardised framework for Energy Efficient Mortgage to helpmarket entry allowing for national heterogeneity, with guidance on theunderlying finance mechanism
2. A clear definition of an Energy Efficient Mortgage to enable banks todifferentiate between energy efficient and conventional mortgages in theirrisk management processes
3. Energy efficiency in property valuations. To ensure that energy efficiency isappropriately taken account of in property valuations, banks should beguided on how and what to instruct property valuers in relation to energyperformance of buildings
4. Simple and proportionate energy efficiency performance indicators, withflexibility to take account of differences between current national approaches
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The EeMAP White Paper is available on the EeMAP website: http://energyefficientmortgages.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/EeMAP-White-Paper.pdf
Four EeMAP Technical Reports
The research findings are detailed in the four EeMAP Technical Reports:
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
‘Green’ Finance Mortgage lending valuation
Building Performance Indicators EE Impact on probability of default
The Energy efficient Mortgages Action Plan – EeMAP - is an initiative by:
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 746205.www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
Realistic estimation of energy saving potentials of buildings
Gert Huybrechts, Vlaamse Confederatie Bouwgg
Ruben Decuypere, Wetenschappelijk en Technisch Centrum voor het Bouwbedrijf
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
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Roadmap for qualitative energetic renovations:Towards a streamlined and achievement-oriented workflow
VIS-Traject 120784
Increased financing for renovations through energy savingsEeMAP event – 15/11/2017
Gert Huybrechts (VCB – Flemish Construction Confederation)Ruben Decuypere, Jeroen Van Der Veken (BBRI – Belgian Building Research Institute)
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Client & market
RenoSave: Client-tool
Can I save money by renovating my
house?
Reno-Pro
How can I optimise the
cost-efficiency?
RenoSave: Bank-tool= ReCalculator
How can I finance my renovation
project?
Diagnosis-tool + Design guide +
Interaction-Matrix
Which renovation measures are
possible?
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RenoFase-tools
• RenoSave ‘Bouwherentool’ (Client-tool)– Objective: first estimate of savings potential of renovation project– Target group: clients and construction professionals– Data input:
• No preliminary analysis required• Data input tailored for the ‘non-expert’• No investment costs needed
– Result: realistic monthly energy savings for package of renovation measures
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RenoFase-tools
• Reno-Pro– Objective: optimisation of renovation design– Target group: architects, general contractors– Result: renovation design optimised for minimal TCO (NPV)– Disadvantage: expert tool: much technical and cost data needed
(incl. investment cost of measures)
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RenoFase-tools
• RenoSave ‘Bank-tool’ – ReCalculator (VCB)– Objective: Realistic and certified estimation of energy savings through renovation– Target group: banks and clients who can’t borrow enough for financing their
energetic renovation project based on conventional assessment method– Executors: EPC-experts with additional training– Data input: 2 newly created Energy Performance Certificates ‘before’ and ‘after’
renovation– Result: montly energy savings– Methodology developed within RenoFase research project
• Reliable results• Results comparable with other modules
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RenoSave:Bank-tool= ReCalculator (VCB)
How can I finance my renovation
project?
050
100150200250300350400
VOOR NA
Ener
gy c
ost[
€/m
onth
] Theoretisch Verbruik
Realistisch Verbruik
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Tota
l liv
ing
expe
nses
[€/m
onth
]
Lening Renovatie
Energielast/maand
Lening Aankoop
Theoretical savings
Realistic savings
Part of renovation loan financedthrough realistic energy savings
Renovation loan
Maximum repayment capacity
105 €/m = 20 k€ extracapital over 20 years
Financing of renovation loan
Theoretical savings
Realistic savings
Loan for renovation
Energy cost/month
Loan for acquisition
BEFORE AFTER
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Realistic energy savings?
• Based on statistical analysis of +10000 data points
Etheor
UM
Before renovation
Evoor,real Ena,real
Besparing
Monte Carlo
Etheor
UM
After renovation
PedPed
RenoSave:Bankentool/ReCalculator (VCB)
EPC-software
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Realistic energy savings Heating ?
• Based on statistical analysis of +10000 data points– Dataset reduced to central 60% (20 to 80-percentile)– Monte-Carlo-simulation with certain correlation between energy consumption before and after
renovation rho=0.9 rho=0.5
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Realistic energy savings Hot Water ?
• Large dispersion on hot water usage per person vs. 1 value based on house volume
25%
70%
110%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Δ E epc Δ E real
Δ E epc minimum average maximum
one value
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RenoSave: ReCalculator
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RenoSave ‘Bankentool’
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RenoSave ‘Bankentool’
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RenoSave: ‘Bankentool’
• Input purely theoretical– Results independent of occupants
(same occupants before and after renovation)– Range allows for taking into account user behaviour/comfort level
• Yearly energy savings – Exposure to energy price fluctuations decreases with increasing energy
efficiency
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8 real renovations calculated with the ReCalculator
€ -60
€ -40
€ -20
€ -
€ 20
€ 40
€ 60
€ 80
€ 100
€ 120
€ 140
€ 160
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Range monthly savings Average monthly savings Theoretical monthly savings
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ReCalculator (VCB) : Certificate
Certificaat
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ReCalculator (VCB)
• Framework for certification to be developed in collaboration with BCCA & VCB– Using official EPC-certification– Quality framework for training, examination, implementation, reporting– Monitoring of input and process by BCCA & VCB (cf. STS cavity walls, airtightness,
ventilation, …) – Legal framework– Tool freely available (www.renofase.be/renosave), certification only when
necessary
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Questions/Remarks?
• For questions or remarks:– [email protected] 02/545 57 49
– [email protected] 02/655 77 11– [email protected] 02/655 77 11– [email protected] 02/655 77 11
Thermal Renovation of Buildings: Wienerberger’s business case
Hans Cools, Wienerberger Belgiumgg
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
INVESTMENT WITH YIELD OF 20%
Renovation of a typical terraced house – Case study
1997 2017
4.5 mdwellings
5.4 mdwellings
New build (1.0 m)
Renovation (0.5 m)
SOURCE: FOD Economy
0,7%
10% 90% 20% 80% 50% 50% 70% 30%
DOUBLEGLASS
NO
SOURCE: Renovatiebarometer Vlaanderen
FLOORINSULATION
WALLINSULATION
ROOFINSULATION
YES
limited space
attached houses
destructive environment
expensive location
rental housing
‘low’ energy consumption
1. BUILDING ENVELOPE
- Insulation façade + finishing
- Windows
- Insulation pitched roof + finishing
- Veranda full annexe
2. EXTRA IMPROVEMENTS
- Floors
- Ventilation system
- Interior finishing
- Electric equipment
- …
1
2
What will be the value on 15/11/2037?
Minimum new build
SOURCE: WTCB TV 246
SOURCE: www.energiegids.be
2006 20172007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0,6
0,40,32
0,24
Evolution U-values [W/m².K]
SOURCE: www.energiesparen.be
0,15
Minimize Energy demand
132
0,7%
€ 187.000
Real energy consumption: > 2000 EUR/year ?
PAYBACK PERIOD?
Total cost (VAT incl.)
Total renovation
Building envelope
1
2
45% of total cost
83.200 83.200Euro
Real energy consumption: > 2000 EUR/year ?
PAYBACK PERIOD?
Market value
After total renovation
After renovation building envelope67% of added value
175.000 325.000Euro
Before renovation
275.000
Added value vs. cost
EuroAdded value
due to renovationbuilding envelope
Cost renovationbuilding envelope
(TAV incl.)
100.000
83.200
51.400
36.300
21.500
Construction
Windows
Pitched roof
Façade
Renovation building envelope:an investment with yield of 20%
11/21/2017 Title of presentation
INVEST IN BUILDING ENVELOPE
• Trias Energetica
• Highest financial efficiency
• Value-proof investment
• Immediate and lifelong
• Biggest impact on comfort level
• ‘no evolution’ in U-values and K-peil (S-peil)
Green Buildings: Knauf Insulation’s business case
Barry Lynham, Knauf Insulationgg
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
BENOVEREN and Building Passportqq
Jochen De Smet, Kabinet Tommeleingg
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
Energy Efficiency: Bank Perspective
Jean Louis De Valck, Febelfin / UPCViviane Meynen, Belfius Bank
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
Energy Efficient Mortgages Action Plan - EeMAP Initiative
in the Belgian contextJean-Louis De Valck
President of the Economic Working Group of UPC, constituent association of Febelfin
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
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Introduction
EEMAP : an important project
Belgium can play an important role
Two aspects of EEMAP
Expectations of the Belgian financial sector ?
Needs ?
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EEMAP : an important project Contribution of the financial sector to social welfare (Accords de Paris)
Meets the needs of the EE investors in the search for financing opportunities
An important project that requires : Multidisciplinary approach to the calculation of Energy Efficiency – that needs to be
interpreted with objectivity and adequacy
Different stakeholders that use the same coherent language with respect to new buildings and renovations
Customer/investor (homeowners, tenants, ...), single or housing, ...
Contractors
Flemish Construction Confederation (VCB)/Belgian Building Research Institute (BBRI) : E-calculator VCB ! (translation of EE in the EPC) – coaching/training EE for contractors
Real estate experts –architects, valuers, ...
Authorities (local, regional, federal)
Lenders
More than marketing solutions. Technical aspects must also be understandable to the customer 92
Belgium can play an important role
through a multidisciplinary approach
through the tool made by the BBRI
through a coherent multifunctional approach in a multicultural country
through a new pragmatic approach
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Two aspects of the EEMAP project Credit aspect
Can the lender grant loans that are based on a leaner credit policy for EE credits? through lower DTI ratio requirements
through lower capital requirements for EE mortgage loans which allow higher LTVs
First figures show promising results
Our view? Lower DTI requirements
Responsibility of each lender, but difficulties regarding regulation might come up
Uncertain whether the very good PDs (probability of default) will be confirmed when EE credits will be extended to a larger target group
Lower LTV requirements
More opportunities, but this requires reconsidering our usual approach to valuation
Through better weightings for EE mortgages
Investment aspect: need to create a good market for securitisation and mortgage bonds Also requires possibilities of securitisation of consumer loans, that are frequently used in
Belgium for EE renovation investments
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Lender grants loans up to 100 % LTV
Loan value will decrease more quickly than real estate value
In a normal situation :
|
LTV approach: bank risk
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Axi
s Ti
tle
Collateral value of a house under normal circumstances
Terugbetaald kapitaal
Waarde woning
Capital repaid
House value
If the mortgage must be reimbursed by collateral, the situation for the financial institution may be different for a non EE house
Now, selling price is mostly accepted as value price. However, experience has shown that this price is often overvalued. The NBB is concerned about potential bubbles and other elements that may destabilise the Belgian mortgage market
Some concerns exist about the large number of external refinancing operations over the past 3 years that have generated many new mortgage loans without actual new valuation of the assets (the accepted valuation made by the former lender is accepted by the new lender)
Non EE efficient mortgage: bank risk
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Axi
s Ti
tle
Collateral value of a house containing asbestos and inadequate
isolation
Terugbetaald kapitaal
Waarde woning
96
Capital repaid
House value
In summary: an EE mortgage is more likely to follow the first scenario
Non EE efficient mortgage: bank risk
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Axi
s Ti
tle
Collateral value of a house containing asbestos and
inadequate isolation
Terugbetaaldkapitaal
Waarde woning
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Axi
s Ti
tle
Collateral value of a house under normal circumstances
Terugbetaaldkapitaal
Waarde woning
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House value
House value
Capital repaid
Capital repaid
Expectations from Belgian lenders ?
Continuously improve the tool objectively for new and existing buildings
Obtain a common definition of every stage in the Energy Efficiency valuation
A more uniform, objective and accurate EPC based on an agreement between all stakeholders
EPC must be used by valuer, architect, etc. to propose the necessary works, with an indication of costs and gains (in terms of EPC level from A to F or even more nuances?)
Each EPC level can be translated in a rating that symbolises the % of value left after 1 year (if the house is sold) : 100 % for an A or a B, 95 for a C, etc.
Different investments must be prioritised to allow consumer and lender to choose the best way to finance the investments
Obtain a better Basel coefficient for houses with a good EE level
Obtain good conditions for the emission of Green EE Bonds with mortgage loans and consumer loans
Government incentives should not lead to price increases, but must first of all benefit the consumer
To avoid real estate bubbles, buyers must be encouraged to be more selective and to value more correctly the investments they must make. This could be done with the help of a more consumer friendly EPC that gives a clear idea of the works necessary to obtain a higher energy efficiency level
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Expectations from Belgian banks ? Government incentives ?
Create a data centre including EPC information for all real estate in Belgium and make it available to lenders, valuers, architects, etc.
EPC is a burden for the seller, not for the buyer. The seller can initiate the EPC the same way as ever, but the valuer must also mention the costs of improving the EE level, thus increasing the EPC’s efficiency for the buyer
That way, the EPC can help the buyer to negotiate a better price, whereas the seller will be more prudent in setting the price!
This may correct the market in a more neutral and objective way and avoid bubbles
Government incentives must be geared towards mortgage loans and consumer loans.In Belgium, many loans for EE investments are regulated by the Consumer Credit law and not necessarily by the Mortgage Credit Law
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Conclusion Promising and exciting project for lenders
Aim for better evaluation of evolutions in real estate value, not only for existing loans, but also for EE mortgages
The government can help on many levels: valuers must be trained to ensure a uniform approach that takes into account (future) energy
improvements
Clear definition of an EE mortgage in a correct, uniform and objective EPC that also reflects investment costs to obtain a higher EE level
Creation of datafiles with follow-up of EPC certificates
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Energy efficient Mortgages Action Plan - EeMAP Initiative
Belfius Energy Efficient Construction Loan
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
Viv MeynenBelfius Bank
Belfius Energy Efficient Construction Loan- Context
in 2013 Belfius Bank signed an energy policy agreement with the Flemish government
with the objective of encouraging the construction of energy efficient homes through an advantageous credit offer
the EEC loan is intended exclusively for new constructions with an energy efficiency better than the standard
in 2013, E-level ≤ 50 (standard = 70)
since 2014, E-level ≤ 30 (standard = 60 (2014-2015) → 50 (since 2016))
1 out of 3 newly built homes are currently eligible
Belfius Energy Efficient Construction Loan- Loan modalities
interest benefit, granted as a conditional discount, on the full credit amount of the construction and for the full maturity
at the start of the loan, the discount is granted on the basis of the EPB-preliminary calculation
an EPC confirmation is required within the year after the loan is fully withdrawn
no interest rate increase in case of LTV> 80%
the evaluation of the repayment capacity takes into account the estimated energy savings
the energy savings are not part of the DTI calculation but constitute an element that the analyst takes into account in evaluating the global credit application
Findings and Reflections specific lending can be a leverage for energy-saving investments -> the financial
sector can make a useful contribution to encourage energy efficient improvement by households
customers are strongly interested in the benefits of energy efficient construction and the advantages of the EEC-loan
at the same time we notice that there still is a great unawareness about the possibilities of energy efficient construction and about the cost and return of energy-saving investments
energy efficiency is a complex and technical subject -> in order to develop a specific loan offer, the lender must be able to rely on:
an objective, uniform and understandable criterion of energy efficiency
for construction as well as for renovation
Findings and Reflections EEC loans show a lower probability of default
we notice a similar lower PD for our Eco-installment loans
our green loans from the period 2009-2011 also have a lower PD
until now, borrowers of our EE loans were mainly customers with a better risk profile
in order to take into account the higher property value and the higher disposable income in its credit policy, the lender must be able to rely on a uniform definition and an authorized calculation
in Belgium, an important share of renovation loans are concluded as installment loans, regulated by the consumer credit law
Roundtable Discussion
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu
Conclusions & Next StepsLuca Bertalot, EMF-ECBC
www.energyefficientmortgages.eu