ST ANTONY'S/MACMILLAN SERIES

General editors: Archie Brown (1978-85) and Rosemary Thorp (1985- ), both Fellows of St Antony's College, Oxford

Roy Allison FINLAND'S RELATIONS WITH THE SOVIET UNION, 1944-84 Said Amir Arjomand (editor) FROM NATIONALISM TO REVOLUTIONARY

ISLAM Anders Åslund PRIVATE ENTERPRISE IN EASTERN EUROPE Orner Bartov THE EASTERN FRONT, 1941-45, GERMAN TROOPS AND THE BARBARISATION OF WARFARE Gail Lee Bernstein and Haruhiro Fukui (editors) JAPAN AND THE WORLD Archie Brown (editor) POLITICAL CULTURE AND COMMUNIST STUDIES Archie Brown (editor) POLITICAL LEADERSHIP AND THE SOVIET UNION Archie Brown and Michael Kaser (editors) SOVIET POLICY FOR THE 1980s S. B. Burman CHIEFDOM POLITICS AND ALIEN LAW Helen Callaway GENDER, CULTURE AND EMPIRE Renfrew Christie ELECTRICITY, INDUSTRY AND CLASS IN SOUTH AFRICA Robert O. Collins and Francis M. Deng (editors) THE BRITISH IN THE SUDAN,

1898-1956 Roger Couter (editor) STUDIES IN THE HISTORY OF ALTERNATIVE

MEDICINE Maria D'Alva G. Kinzo LEGAL OPPOSITION POLITICS UNDER

AUTHORITARIAN RULE IN BRAZIL Wilhelm Deist THE WEHRMACHT AND GERMAN REARMAMENT Robert Desjardins THE SOVIET UNION THROUGH FRENCH EYES, 1945-85 Guido di Tella ARGENTINA UNDER PERÓN, 1973-76 Guido di Tella and Rudiger Dornbusch (editors) THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF

ARGENTINA, 1946-83 Guido di Tella and D. C. M. Platt (editors) THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF

ARGENTINA, 1880-1946 Simon Duke US DEFENCE BASES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM Julius A. Elias PLATO'S DEFENCE OF POETRY Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Ernesto Tironi (editors) LATIN AMERICA AND THE

NEW INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER David Footman ANTONIN BESSE OF ADEN Bohdan Harasymiw POLITICAL ELITE RECRUITMENT IN THE SOVIET

UNION Neil Harding (editor) THE STATE IN SOCIALIST SOCIETY Richard Holt SPORT AND SOCIETY IN MODERN FRANCE Albert Hourani EUROPE AND THE MIDDLE EAST Albert Hourani THE EMERGENCE OF THE MODERN MIDDLE EAST J. R. Jennings GEORGES SOREL A. Kemp-Welch (translator) THE BIRTH OF SOLIDARITY Paul Kennedy and Anthony Nicholls (editors) NATIONALIST AND RACIALIST

MOVEMENTS IN BRITAIN AND GERMANY BEFORE 1914 Richard Kindersley (editor) IN SEARCH OF EUROCOMMUNISM Maria D'Alva G. Kinzo LEGAL OPPOSITION POLITICS UNDER

AUTHORITARIAN RULE IN BRAZIL Bohdan Krawchenko SOCIAL CHANGE AND NATIONAL CONSCIOUSNESS

IN TWENTIETH-CENTURY UKRAINE Gisela C. Lebzelter POLITICAL ANTI-SEMITISM IN ENGLAND. 1918-1939 Nancy Lubin LABOUR AND NATIONALITY IN SOVIET CENTRAL ASIA C. A. MacDonald THE UNITED STATES, BRITAIN AND APPEASEMENT,

1936-39

Robert H. McNeal TSAR AND COSSACK, 1855-1914 David Nicholls HAITI IN CARIBBEAN CONTEXT Patrick O'Brien (editor) RAILWAYS AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

OF WESTERN EUROPE, 1830-1914

Han BRITAIN AND THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT 1948-51 Pappé Amii Omaru-Otunnu POLITICS AND THE MILITARY IN UGANDA, 1890-1985 Roger Owen (editor) STUDIES IN THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL HISTORY

OF PALESTINE IN THE NINETEENTH AND TWENTIETH CENTURIES Han Pappé BRITAIN AND THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT, 1948-51 D. C. M. Platt and Guido di Tella (editors) ARGENTINA, AUSTRALIA AND

CANADA: STUDIES IN COMPARATIVE DEVELOPMENT, 1870-1965 Irena Powell WRITERS AND SOCIETY IN MODERN JAPAN Alex Pravda (editor) HOW RULING COMMUNIST PARTIES ARE GOVERNED T. H. Rigby and Ferenc Fehér (editors) POLITICAL LEGITIMATION IN

COMMUNIST STATES Hans Rogger JEWISH POLICIES AND RIGHT-WING POLITICS IN IMPERIAL

RUSSIA Marilyn Rueschemeyer PROFESSIONAL WORK AND MARRIAGE A. J. R. Russell-Wood THE BLACK MAN IN SLAVERY AND FREEDOM IN

COLONIAL BRAZIL Nurit Schleifman UNDERCOVER AGENTS IN THE RUSSIAN

REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT Amnon Sella Yael Yishai ISRAEL THE PEACEFUL BELLIGERENT, 1967-

79 Aron Shai BRITAIN AND CHINA, 1941-47 Lewis H. Siegelbaum THE POLITICS OF INDUSTRIAL MOBILIZATION IN

RUSSIA, 1914-17 David Stafford BRITAIN AND EUROPEAN RESISTANCE, 1940--45 Nancy Stepan THE IDEA OF RACE IN SCIENCE Verena Stokke COFFEE PLANTERS, WORKERS AND WIVES Jane E. Stromseth THE ORIGINS OF FLEXIBLE RESPONSE Marvin Swartz THE POLITICS OF BRITISH FOREIGN POLICY IN THE ERA

OF DISRAELI AND GLADSTONE Rosemary Thorp (editor) LATIN AMERICA IN THE 1930s Rosemary Thorp and Laurence Whitehead (editors) INFLATION AND

STABILISATION IN LATIN AMERICA Rosemary Thorp and Laurence Whitehead (editors) LATIN AMERICAN DEBT

AND THE ADJUSTMENT CRISIS Rudolf L. Tökés (editor) OPPOSITION IN EASTERN EUROPE Robert Wihtol THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK AND RURAL

DEVELOPMENT Toshiuo Yokoyama JAPAN IN THE VICTORIAN MIND

Series Standing Order

If you would like to receive future titles in this series as they are published, you can make use of our standing order facility. To place a standing order please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address and the name of the series. Please state with which title you wish to begin your standing order. (If you live outside the United Kingdom we may not have the rights for your area, in which case we will forward your order to the publisher concerned.)

Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 2XS, England.

The Political Economy of Argentina, 1946-83

Edited by

Guido di Tella Professor of Economics University of Buenos Aires and the Catholic University of Argentina Associate Member, St Antony's College, Oxford

and

Rudiger Dornbusch Ford International Professor of Economics Massachusetts Institute of Technology

M MACMILLAN

PRESS in association with Palgrave Macmillan

© Guido di Tella and Rudiger Dornbusch 1989 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1989

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission.

No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended), or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33-4 Alfred Place, London WC1E 7DP.

Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

First published 1989

Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data The political economy of Argentina, 1946-83. -(St. Antony's/Macmillan series). 1. Argentina-Economic conditions-1945 I. Dornbusch, Rudiger II. di Tella, Guido 330.982'06 HC175 ISBN 978-1-349-09513-1 ISBN 978-1-349-09511-7 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-09511-7

Contents

Preface vii List of Abbreviations ix Notes on the Contributors xi Argentine Presidents and Economy Ministers,

1946-83 xiii

1 Introduction: the Political Economy of Argentina, 1946-83

Guido di Tel/a and Rudiger Dornbusch 1

2 Political and Economic Crises in Argentina Juan Carlos Portantiero 16

Comment Manuel Moray Araujo 25

3 Argentina's Nationalism: Myth or Reality? Jorge Fodor 31

Comment Sir Alec Cairncross 56

4 Peronist Economic Policies, 1946-55 Pablo Gerchunoff 59

Comment Carlos Diaz Alejandro 86

5 The 'Revoluci6n Libertadora', 1955-8 Celia Szusterman 89

Comment Pablo Gerchunoff 103

6 Unbalanced Development, 1958--62 Alberto Petrecolla 108

Comment Albert 0. Hirschman 126

v

Vl Contents

7 Economic Policy without Political Context: Guido, 1962-3

Juan Carlos de Pablo 129 Comment Graciela Kaminsky 142 Response Juan Carlos de Pablo 146

8 Economic Policy during Illia's Period in Office, 1963-6

Alieto Aldo Guadagni 147 Comment Javier Villanueva 162

9 Argentina: Macroeconomic Policy, 1966--73 Geoffrey Maynard 166

Comment Daniel M. Schydlowsky 175

10 Transitional Economic Policies, 1971-3 Mariano Filippini and Maria Angelica Olcese 189

Comment Jose Saul Lizondo 206

11 Argentina's Economy under a Labour-based Government, 1973-6

Guido di Tel/a 213 Comment Walter Eltis 247

12 Argentine Economic Policy, 1976--81 Larry A. Sjaastad 254

Comment Franco Modigliani 276

13 Argentina after Martinez de Hoz Rudiger Dornbusch 286

Comment Feliciano Hernandez Iglesias 316

14 Postscript Guido di Tel/a 320

15 Statistical Appendix, 1945-85 325

Index 339

Preface

We should like to thank Soledad Ortega and the Fundacion Ortega y Gasset who sponsored the Second International Conference on the Political Economy of Argentina, 1946-83, and provided the use of their magnificent premises of San Juan de Ia Penitencia, in Toledo, Spain, in May 1984. This book is the result of that conference. We also wish to thank the Argentine Ministry of Foreign Affairs for its moral support, the Argentine Banking Association (ADEBA), Fun­dacion Banco de Boston, Fundacion Bunge & Born, Fundacion Banco de Italia, Fundacion Carlos Pellegrini and Fundacion Perez Companc, for their magnificent support, as well as the other organi­sations, such as Iberia and Banco Comercial del Norte, who made this project possible. In particular we wish to thank Professors Saturnino Aguado, Peter Alhadeff, Leon Benelbas, Domingo Caval­lo, Yair Mundlak, Javier Ortiz and Carlos Rodriguez Braun for their active participation in the conference and for their most interesting comments. We also wish to mention the former Ministers of the Economy and other officials who participated in the Conference: Roberto Alemann, Alvaro Alsogaray, Domingo Cavallo, Jose M. Dagnino Pastore, Jose A. Martinez de Hoz, Alberto Sola and Jorge Whebe, who were willing to discuss their periods, policies and intentions in an open way. Their most crucial statements, as well as those of the Ministers who could not attend but submitted their views in writing- Rogelio Frigerio, Alfredo Gomez Morales, Adalbert Krieger Vasena, Carlos Leyba and Lorenzo Sigaut- are being published separately as El testimonio de los Ministros, 1946-83 (edited by GuidQ di Tella and Carlos Rodriguez Braun, 1988), complementing in an ideal way this volume.

Finally we want to thank John Blackwood for his supervision and improvement of the final English text, given the fact that many of the papers were originally written in Spanish and had to be translated into English.

G. di T. R. D.

vii

List of Abbreviations

APEGE Asamblea Permanente de Entidades Gremiales Empresarias

BCRA Banco Central de la Republica Argentina

BIS Bank for International Settlements

CELADE Centro de Estudios Latinoamericanos

CEMA Centro de Estudios Macroecon6micos de Argentina

CEMYB Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Bancarios

CERA Centro de la Realidad Argentina

CGE Confederaci6n General Empresaria

CGT Confederaci6n General del Trabajo

CIES Centro de Investigaciones Econ6micas y Sociales

DNEC Direcci6n Nacional de Estadisticas y Censos

ECLA Economic Commission for Latin America

FIEL Fundaci6n de Investigaciones Econ6micas Latinoamericanas

IAPI Instituto Argentino de Promoci6n de Intercambio

IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

IEERAL Instituto de Estudios Econ6micos de la Realidad Argentina y Latinoamericana

IFS

IMF

INDEC

LAFTA

International Financial Statistics

International Monetary Fund

Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos

Latin American Free Trade Association

ix

X

OECD

PND

UCR

UCRI

UCRP

UIA

YPF

List of Abbreviations

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

National Development Plan

Union Civica Radical

Union Civica Radical Intransigente

Union Civica Radical del Pueblo

Union Industrial Argentina

Y acimientos Petroliferos Fiscales

Notes on the Contributors

Sir Alec Cairncross is Chancellor of the University of Glasgow, and Supernumerary Fellow of St Antony's College, Oxford.

Juan Carlos de Pablo is editor-in-chief of El Cronista Comercial, and co-editor of Carta Economica.

Carlos Diaz Alejandro was Professor of Economics at Columbia University.

Guido di Tella is Associate Fellow at St Antony's College, Oxford, and Professor of Economics at the University of Buenos Aires and the Catholic University of Argentina.

Rudiger Dornbusch is Professor of Economics at MIT.

Walter Eltis is Fellow and Tutor in Economics at Exeter College, University of Oxford.

Mariano Filippini is Associate Researcher at the Instituto Torcuato di Tella, and Associate Professor at the University of Buenos Aires.

Jorge Fodor is Professor of Economic History at the University of Modena, Italy.

Pablo Gerchunoff is Senior Researcher at the Instituto Torcuato di Tella, and Professor of Economics at the University of Buenos Aires and the Catholic University of Argentina.

Alieto Aldo Guadagni is Senior Researcher at the Instituto Torcuato di Tella, and Professor of Economics at the Catholic University of Argentina.

Feliciano Hernandez Iglesias is Professor of Economics at the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid.

Xl

xii Notes on the Contributors

Albert 0. Hirschman is Professor of Social Science, Emeritus, at the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton.

Graciela Kaminsky is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego.

Jose Saul Lizondo is Professor of Economics at the University of Tucuman, Argentina, and Researcher at the Institute for Economic Research, University of Tucuman, Argentina.

Geoffrey Maynard is Director of Economics for Chase Manhattan Bank, and Visiting Professor of Economics, Reading University.

Franco Modigliani is Institute Professor at MIT.

Manuel Mora y Araujo is Professor of Political Sociology at Belgrano University, and Senior Researcher at the Instituto Torcuato di Tella.

Marfa Angelica Olcese is Associate Researcher at the Instituto Torcuato di Tella, and Associate Professor at the University of Buenos Aires.

Alberto Petrecolla is Professor of Economics at the Catholic University of Argentina, and Senior Researcher and Director of the Instituto Torcuato di Tella.

Juan Carlos Portantiero is Professor of Sociology at the University of Buenos Aires, and Researcher at the National Center for Scientific and Technical Research (CONICET).

Daniel M. Schydlowsky is Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for Latin American Development Studies at Boston University.

Larry A. Sjaastad is Professor of Economics, University of Chicago, and Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva.

Celia Szusterman is Senior Lecturer in the Faculty of Languages, Polytechnic of Central London.

Javier Villanueva is Senior Researcher at the Instituto Torcuato di Tella, and Professor of Economics at the Catholic University of Argentina.

Argentine Presidents and Economy Ministers, 1946-83

Presidents Accession and end of Economy Ministers term

Gral. Juan D. Peron Unrestricted Ram6n Cereijo* June 1946---June 1952 elections - end of 4 June 1946---4 June

constitutional period 1952

Gral. Juan D. Peron Unrestricted Pedro Bonanni* June 1952-Sep 1955 elections - coup 4 June 1952-16 Sep

1955

Gral. Eduardo Lonardi Coup- coup Eugenio Folcini* Sep 1955-Nov 1955 24 Sep 1955-13 Nov

1955

Gral. Pedro E. Coup - electoral call Eugenio A. Blanco* Aramburu 14 Nov 1955-25 Jan Nov 1955-May 1958 1957

Roberto A. Verrier* 26 Jan 1957-26 Mar 1957

Adalbert Krieger Vasena* 26 Mar 1957-1 May 1958

Dr Arturo Frondizi Restricted Emilio Del Carril May 1958-Mar 1962 elections - coup 1 May 1958-24 June

1959

Alvaro Alsogaray 25 June 1959-26 Apr 1961

Xlll

xiv Presidents and Ministers of Economy

Presidents

Dr Jose Maria Guido Mar 1962-0ct 1963

Dr Arturo Ulia Oct 1963-June 1966

Accession and end of term

Coup - electoral call

Restricted elections - coup

Economy Ministers

Roberto Alemann 26 Apr 1961-12 Jan 1962

Carlos A. Coli Benegas 15 Jan 1962-26 Mar 1962

Jorge Wehbe 26 Mar 1962-29 Mar 1962

Jorge Wehbe 30 Mar 1962-6 Apr 1962

Federico Pinedo 6 Apr 1962-25 Apr 1962

Alvaro Alsogaray 30 Apr 1962-10 Dec 1962

Eustaquio Mendez Delfino 10 Dec 1962-15 May 1963

Jose A. Martinez de Hoz 21 May 1963-12 Oct 1963

Eugenio Blanco 12 Oct 1963-5 Aug 1964

Juan C. Pugliese 19 Aug 1964--28 June 1966

Presidents

Gral. Juan C. Ongania June 1966--June 1970

Gral. Roberto M. Levingston June 1970-Mar 1971

Gral. Alejandro Lanusse Mar 1971-May 1973

Dr Hector Campora May 1973-July 1973

Mr Raw Lastiri July 1973-Sep 1973

Gral. Juan D. Peron Oct 1973-July 1974

Presidents and Ministers XV

Accession and end of term

Coup- coup

Coup- coup

Coup - electoral call

Unrestricted elections - resignation

Elected by parliament - electoral call

Unrestricted elections - death

Economy Ministers

Jorge Nestor Salimei 29 June 1966--3 Jan 1967

Adalbert Krieger Vasena 3 Jan 1967-11 June 1969

Jose M. Dagnino Pastore 11 June 1969-17 June 1970

Carlos Moyano Llerena 18 June 1970-15 Oct 1970

Aldo Ferrer 26 Oct 1970-28 May 1971

Juan Alberto Quilici* 1 June 1971-11 Oct 1971

Cayetano Licciardo 11 Oct 1971-13 Oct 1972

Jorge Wehbe 13 Oct 1972-24 May 1973

Jose Ber Gelbard 25 May 1973-21 Oct 1974

II II II

II II

xvi Presidents and Ministers of Economy

Presidents

Mrs Isabel Peron July 1974-Mar 1976

Gral. Jorge R. Videla Mar 1976-Mar 1981

Gral. Roberto Viola Mar 1981-Nov 1981

Gral. Leopoldo Galtieri Nov 1981-June 1982

Gral. Reynaldo Bignone July 1982-Nov 1983

Accession and end of term

Constitutional succession- coup

Coup- end of pre-announced period

Military appointment - coup

Coup- coup

Coup - electoral call

Economy Ministers

Alfredo Gomez Morales 21 Oct 1974-2 June 1975

Celestino Rodrigo 2 June 1975-19 July 1975

Pedro Bonanni 22 July 1975-11 Aug 1975

Antonio Cafiero 14 Aug 1975-3 Feb 1976

Emilio Mondelli 3 Feb 1976-24 Mar 1976

Jose A. Martinez de Hoz 29 Mar 1976-28 Mar 1981

Lorenzo Sigaut 29 Mar 1981-21 Dec 1981

Roberto T. Alemann 22 Dec 1981-30 June 1982

Jose Dagnino Pastore 2 July 1982-24 Aug 1982

Jorge Wehbe 25 Aug 1982-7 Dec 1983

* In these periods the title was Minister of the Treasury. tIn 1973 Juan D. Peron and in 1982 Isabel Peron were personally banned,

but their party was not.