Prof. em. Ron Lesthaeghe

Vruchtbaarheidstransities:1750-2010

Oorzaken & Gevolgen.

Ron Lesthaeghe

Landen proportioneel aan hun bevolkingsomvang, 2002.

Twee Vruchtbaarheidstransities

1. De initiële vruchtbaarheidsdaling en de gestage verbetering van de vruchtbaarheidscontrole & anticonceptie. 1750-1975 in Europa, nog gaande in meerdere ontwikkelingslanden. Verdwijnen van 3e en hogere rang kinderen.

2. De grote uitstel van ouderschap, partiële of gehele recuperatie op oudere leeftijd, en vruchtbaarheid structureel & langdurig onder het vervangingspeil. Toename kinderloosheid. Vaak samenlopend met ontplooiing nieuwe en niet-conventionele gezinsvormen => “Second Demographic Transition”. Ontwikkelt zich na de baby boom van de jaren 60.

THREE CONDITIONS FOR INNOVATION:R and W and A

• Ready = new behavior must be advantageous (conscious cost/benefit calculus)

• Willing = new behavior must be ethically acceptable (religious and moral legitimacy)

• Able = there must be technical means for its realization (material, legal, organizational, often at macro level)

READY => Sociale en economische ontwikkeling

WILLING => Culturele en mentale “revolutie”

ABLE => Family Planning, gezondheidsvoorzieningen,legale aanpassingen.

…EN OP MACRO NIVEAU :

• READY = ECONOMICALLY ADVANTAGEOUS• WILLING = CULTURALLY ACCEPTABLE• ABLE = MEANS AVAILABLE

S = R and W and A

The slowest moving condition can become a bottleneck.

De conditie die het traagst evolueert remt de ganse transitie af: deze wordt “the limiting condition”, de “flessenhalsconditie”

De eerste vruchtbaarheidstransitie

• Illustratie van R én W én A : het Belgische voorbeeld => W als flessenhalsconditie.

• De wereldsituatie (totale vruchtbaarheidscijfers TFR en hun evolutie)

Vote1919

1.0.8.6.4.20.0

DELTA_IG

1.0

.8

.6

.4

.2

0.0

Region

Brussels

Wallonia

Flanders

Total Population

Rsq = 0.7936

Waremme

Virton

VerviersTournai

Thuin

Soignies

Philippeville

Nivelles

Neufchâteau

Namur

Mons

Marche

Liège

Huy

Dinant

Charleroi

Bastogne

Ath

Arlon

Ypres

Veurne

TurnhoutTongeren

Tielt

St. Nik laas

Roeselare

OudenaardeOstend

Mechelen

Maaseik

Leuven

Kortrijk

Hasselt

Ghent

Eeklo

Diksmuide

Dendermonde

Brussels

Bruges

Antwerp

Aalst

Delta Ig = proportion of totalmarital fertility decline alreadyrealised by 1910

Vote 1919 = Proportion ofVotes for 3 secular partiesLiberal + Socialist + Communist

Long term spatial continuity in Belgium: Relationship between 2SDT features (cohabitation 1981 and non-marital fertility 1992) and early 19th Century secularization.

r = +.832 r = +.900

Median level 1970

Median level 2000

TFR= 2.1

TFR=1.5

Decline in National TFRs between 1970 and 2000, LDCs and MDCs

Totale vruchtbaarheidscijfers, ca 2006

< 2

2 tot 3

3 tot 4

4 tot 5

5 en >

1. Eerste uitstelbewegingen (Noord & West Europa) starten einde jaren 60, en leiden tot dalingen van de Totale Vruchtbaarheidscijfers (TFR) tot onder 2 kinderen. Typisch dal : 1.5 tot 1.6 kinderen.

Deze landen beëindigen de uitstel na 2000, en hebben vrij sterke recuperatie van de vruchtbaarheid na de leeftijd van 30 jaar. => herstel van de periode TFRs tot 1.7 a 2.0 kinderen.

2. Zuid en Centraal* Europa: sterker uitstel en minder recuperatie =>

TFRs onder de 1.5 en vaak onder de 1.3 = “Lowest Low Fertility”

*Omvat Duitsland, Oostenrijk, Zwitserland.

3. Voorheen communistische landen kennen spectaculaire uitstel gedurende de jaren 90. Sommigen (Tsjech Rep bijv.) recupereren beter dan andere (Rusland bijv). TFRs dalen tot onder 1.3 en zelfs onder 1.0 (ex DDR) => tweede groep “Lowest Low Fertility”

2e transitie : uitstel van ouderschap, differentiële recuperatie op oudere leeftijden

But a positive association between SDT and period total fertility : classic case of split correlation

Bulgaria

Poland

GreeceSlovakia

Luxembourg

The NetherlandsUnited Kingdom Finland

Denmark

France

Sweden

Lithuania

Latvia

Spain

ItalyHungary

Austria

EstoniaCzech Rep.

Portugal

Germany

RussiaCroatia

Ukraine

Romania

Ireland

Iceland

Slovenia

Belarus

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20TFR

SDT Index

Figure 8a: SDT Index and TFR in 2004 (r=0.71)

All stronger recuperation countries

No or weak recup & late starters

Source of plot : Tomas Sobotka, 2008. Interpretation : Ron Lesthaeghe 2008.

1.50

Deficits CCFR Netherlands

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

<20 <20-24 <20-30 <20-34 <20-39 <20-44 <20-45+

Age Brackets and Baseline (1940-44)

Deficets, Thousands of Births

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

1975-1979

1980-1984

Deficits CCFR Portugal

-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100

0100200

<20 <20-24 <20-30 <20-34 <20-39 <20-44 <20-45+

Age Brackets and Baseline (1940-44)

Deficets, Thousands of Births

1945-1949

1950-1954

1955-1959

1960-1964

1965-1969

1970-1974

1975-1979

1980-1984

TROUGH RECUPPTFR(t+30) = A + B1*BaseCTFR(t=0) + B2*TROUGH(t) + B3*RECUP(t) + e

Trough = deficit in cumulated CASFR at age 30 compared to baseRecup = part of trough recuperated by age 40Sample= all never communist European countries, baseline = cohort born 1940-44, predicting PTFRs in period 1960-2005.

RESULT : baseCTFR only Rsq. = .505, baseCTFR + Trough Rsq= .673, all 3 including Recup then Rsq= .793. Hence : RECUP IS ESSENTIAL.

ONLY countries dip below a TFR below 1.5 that have no or weak recuperation.The “Bongaarts’ babies” have remained in his cupboard in a large number of countries, and will stay there for as long as there is no recuperation of fertility after age 30.

SDT and TFRs : inconsistent or double effect ?

Social & Economic constraints (education, employment, housing …)

Self-actualisation; “open future”

Emancipation: gender equity

Affirmative policies re gender roles, child care, reduced opportunity costs of motherhood.

Postponement

Recuperation

Overall fertility

+

+

_

+SDT

Gevolgen van de vruchtbaarheidsdaling

• 1. Afremmen bevolkingsgroei

• 2. Bij structurele vruchtbaarheid onder vervangingspeil = doorhollende bevolkingskrimp (negative or “Shrink” momentum”)

• 3. Extra bevolkingsveroudering bovenop deze veroorzaakt door verlenging levensduur.

Pierre-François Verhulst : De logistische curve, 1842(Of het wiskundig model van limieten van groei)

Omvang wereldbevolking

7 miljard

2011

! Log schaal !

Stable population age structures with constant e0= 80 years, but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

Negative Growth Momentum : Italy

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2001 2016 2031 2046 2061 2076 2091 2106 2121 2136

Year

Size

2016

2031

2046

2061

never

Year TFR reaches 2.06 again i.e. Replacement level

TFR back to 2.06Children (from 1.25)

FemalePopulationSize

X

X

X

X

X = about stationary

De gevolgen van lage vruchtbaarheid: doorlopende krimp.

Percent 65+ Italian women if TFR is restored to replacement level at various dates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101 2111 2121 2131 2141

Year

Pct 65+

2.06 in 2016

2.06 in 2031

2.06 in 2046

2.06 in 2061

never

Absolute aantallen ouderen van 65+ jaar

Voor een volgende keer :

“ ARE MIGRANTS SUBSTITUTES FOR BIRTHS ?”

articles and papers can be downloaded from

http://www.sdt.psc.isr.umich.edu

http://www.vub.ac.be/SOCO/Lesthaeghe.htm

Prof. Marleen Temmerman

The Exceptionalism of Family Planning

Prof. Dr. Marleen TemmermanUGent

Debat « Vruchtbaarheid en overbevolking »Handelsbeurs

26 oktober 2011

7 Billion People …and Beyond

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Billions

World Population Growth: 1950 - 2050

Least developed countries

Other developing countries

Developed countriesSource: « State of the World Population 2011 », UNFPA

7 Billion People …and Beyond• Global:

– + 80 million people/year– 43% is <25 years old– 2050: 2.5 billion people will be >60 years old

• Asia: – 60% of world population

• Africa: – population will triple by 2100

7 Billion People …and Beyond

Source: Presentation Ivan Hermans 3-3-2012, UNFPA

7 Billion People …and Beyond

• Paradoxes:

– Fewer children <-> population is rising

– High fertility rates in poor countries <-> low fertility in industrialized countries

“The evidence is overwhelming, the MDGs are difficult or impossible to achieve with the current levels of population growth in the least developed countries and regions”

- All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health, March 2011-

Fertility Rates

Source: “World Population Prospects The 2008 Revision”, UN Population Division,

Fertility Rates

Source: « State of the World Population 2011 », UNFPA

Fertility Rates

• Fertility decline & grow of number of women in reproductive age

• Progress in reproductive health but 215 million women in unmet need for family planning:= women who want to space or limite number

of children but are using unreliable contraceptive methods or nothing

Unmet Need for Family Planning

Source: Sedgh G. et al., New York: Guttmacher Institute 2007

• Actual number: highest in Asia

• Proportion: largest in Sub Sahara Africa

Unmet Need for Family Planning

GLOBAL:

•Richest quintile: 15% in unmet need

• Poorest quintile:33% in unmet need

Source: USAID. BRIDGE. Population Reference Bureau (PRB). Family Planning Worldwide, 2008 Data Sheet.

• The gap on contraceptive use between rich and poor starts to close only when contraceptives become more accessible & affordable.

• Highest among jongest and oldest age groups

• Particularly at risk: sexually active unmarried women

Unmet Need for Family Planning

DIRECTLY:

• 590,000 newborn deaths could be averted annually• Infant and under five mortality rates would drop by

24% and 35%, respectively• Infants born to teen mothers have twice the risk of

dying in their first year than infants born to women in their 20s and 30s

• Lowering of maternal mortality due to unsafe abortions

• Maternal mortality could drop by 25-35%• …

Contributions of Fulfilling Unmet Need for FP

INDIRECTLY:

• More equality between men and women and raise women’s status in society

• Lower fertility accounts for 25-40% of economic growth in developing countries

• Positive impact on individual household economies• Women and girls spend more time in education, training,

employment• Enables women to be more active in economic, and political life• Provide cost savings in the health care sector • ...

Contributions of Fulfilling Unmet Need for FP

• Cost fulfilling unmet need: annual average 1.2 USD/women.

• Total costs of services: increase of 3.6 billion USD. • Savings in newborn and maternal health: 5.1 billion USD.

For every dollar spend on FP, 4 USD can be SAVED!

FP as a Cost Effective Investment

“For each additional 10 million dollars received for family planning, we can avert 114,000 unintended pregnancies, 50,000 unplanned births, 48,000 abortions, 15,000 miscarriages and more than 3,000 infant deaths"

-Thoraya Obaid (ex-Executive Director UNFPA)-

FP as an Ecological Investment

Source: Malcolm Potts, Bixbey Center for Population, Health and Sustainability, University of California, Berkley

• Increase access to contraceptive supplies and services by assuring:

– Choice– Quality– Availability– Afordability

• Avoid stock outs

• Add to National Essentional Medicines List

• Sufficient budgets

Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need

Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need (Global)

Source: UNFPA & “Resource Flows for Population Activities”

Includes all donor institutions (including developed country governments), foundations/NGOS and development banks

Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need (Belgium)

Source: « Een kritische analyse van de federale ontwikkelingshulp voor sekusele en reproductieve gezondheid », Sensoa, september 2011.

• Increase political commitment

• Realise FP policies

• Empowerment of women

• Realise equality between men and women

• Block cultural/traditional barriers

• Call for the ‘exceptionalism of FP’ based on lessons learned from the HIV/AIDS approach

Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need

More info: www.icrh.org

Thanks!