1

Generational Politics

Dr. Michael BitzerProfessor of Politics & History and Provost

www.ThePartyLine.org

2

Overview

• Overview of Generations & Politics• Distinctiveness of Millennials– Variety of Dimensions

• Millennial Voters in North Carolina– Coming of Age, but Not Quite There—Yet

3

Pew: Births Underlying Each Generation

4

U.S. Labor Force by Generation, 1995-2015

5

Party Identification, 1939-2015 (Gallup)

39 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dem % Rep % Indep %

New Deal Democratic Coalition

Realignment & Dealignment Coalition Country

6

Overview

• Overview of Generations & Politics• Distinctiveness of Millennials– Variety of Dimensions

7

National Party Affiliation by Generation (Pew)

Nation Silent Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

32 33 34 32 28

3929

35 40 48

2333

25 22 18

Democrat Independent Republican

8

National Party Affiliation With Leaners by Generation

(Pew)

Nation Silent Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

48 47 47 49 51

13 10 12 13 14

39 43 41 38 35

Democrat Independent Republican

9

National Ideological Affiliation by Generation

(Pew)

Nation Silent Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

34 28 33 3441

39

3335

42

44

2738 34

2515

Consistently/Mostly Liberal MixedMostly/Consistently Conservative

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Aug 2015 NBC/WSJ Poll: Generations’ Approval

of Obama

Millennials Generation X Baby Boomers Silent0

10

20

30

40

50

60

51

40 4144

31

4549 48

1815

108

Positive Negative No opinion/DK

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August 2015 NBC/WSJ Poll: Generations’ Perception of

Government’s Role

Millennials All other generations0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

60

46

37

50

Do more to solve problems Doing too much

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Source for Political News by Baby Boomers & Millennials

(Pew)

Baby Boomers Millennials0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

60

3739

61

Local TV Facebook

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“Interest in Politics” by Generation (Pew)

Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

45

34

26

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Overview

• Overview of Generations & Politics• Distinctiveness of Millennials– Variety of Dimensions

• Millennial Voters in North Carolina– Coming of Age, but Not Quite There—Yet

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Estimated NC Registered Voters by Generation

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 422920%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2%4%

8%10%

16%18%

24%

26% 27%

22% 23%25% 25% 26% 26% 25%

25% 27%

45%43%

41% 40%

36% 35%33% 32%

33%31%

29%26%

25%

22% 21%18% 17%

13%

Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer Silent

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Year by Year Registration of NC Voters by Generation (based on 10-3-15 Data)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials

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NC Voters by Generation and Race (10-3-15)

Statewide Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

71%82%

75%68%

62%

22%

15%21%

24%27%

7% 3% 5% 8% 11%

White Black All others/Unknown

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Location of NC Registered Voters by Generation (10-3-

15)

Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

46%50%

56%60%

22% 21% 20%17%

32%28%

24% 23%

Urban Suburban Rural

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NC Party Registration by Generation (10-3-15)

Statewide Silent Generation Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

41%50% 44% 38% 36%

28%17%

22% 30% 38%

30% 33% 33% 31% 25%

0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Democrats Unaffiliated Republicans Libertarians

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Racial Composition by Party Registration of NC Millennial Voters

Statewide Democrats Unaffiliated Republicans Libertarians0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

62%

34%

70%

92%79%

27%

55%

15%

3%

9%

White Black Indian Asian Multiracial Other Unknown

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Party Registration by Racial Category of

NC Millennial Voters

White Black Indian Asian Multiracial Other Unknown0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20%

76%

49%

34%47%

38%24%

43%

21%

36%53%

41%47%

66%

36%

3%14% 12% 11% 14% 9%

1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Democrats Unaffiliated Republicans Libertarians

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Estimated Turnout Rates for NC Voters by Generation

2008 2010 2012 20140%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

68%

21%

55%

21%

77%

40%

68%

39%

84%

58%

78%

56%

83%

62%

69%

49%

Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer Silent

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Questions