ISSN 0188 7092

CICLO DE CONFERENCIAS MAGISTRALES SEPTIEMBRE DE 1994

LA ESTRATEGIA ENERGETICA DE LA FEDERACION RUSA Y SUS

IMPLICACIONES TECNOLOGICAS

DR. DMITRI VOLFBERG

Ciudad de México 3 de Septiembre de 1994

INDICE

Currículum Vitae del Conferencista .................... .. ........ .... ............ V

Conferencia "La eEtrategia energética de la Federación Rusa y sus implicaciones tecnológicas" Dr. Dmitri Volfberg ............................................................................ 1

Comentarios del Académico de Número Ing. Enrique Vázquez Domínguez ................................................ 25

Comentarios del Académico de Número Ing. Juan Eibenschutz Hartman ..................................................... 29

III

Dr. Dmitri Voltberg

CURRICULUM VII AE SINTETICO

Realizó sus estudios en el Instituto de Ingeniería y Economía de Moscú, habiendo trabajado en varios institutos

de investigación dE su país. Ha impartido cátedra durante

toda su vida profesional.

Actualmente es Jefe del Departamento de Energía y Combustible de la División de Energía del Ministerio de

Ciencia, Alta Educación y Política Tecnológica de la Federa­

ción Rusa, es miembro del Comité de expertos para la

Tecnología de la Energía de Rusia. Es además miembro del

Consejo Nacional Ruso ante el Comité Mundial de Energía

(WEC). Es autor de numerosos artículos cintíficos y de

aspectos de política en el campo de la Energía.

Su ocupación actual gira alrededor de la formulación

de una nueva política para la energía en Rusia y, de sus

derivaciones científico-tecnológicas, como la conservación

de la energía.

V

CONFERENCIA

LA ESTRATEGIA ENERGETICA DE LA FEDERACION RUSA Y SUS

IMPLICACIONES TECNOLOGICAS

DR. DMITRI VOLFBERG

Fuel energy complex (FEC) is majar constituent of the Rus­sian ecorromy and one of the key factors that ensure production capacity and life of people. FEC stands far over one -farth indus­trial output of Russia, impacts the positive side of the domestic budget considerably and offers more than a half of Russian exports potential. The FEC's basic assets comprise around one-third ind us­trial power of the country.

Fig. 1 SHARE OF RUSSIA IN WORLD TOTAL EN ERG Y RESOURCES PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION

AND TRADE, % IN WORLD TOTAL

Oil Resources Natural Gas Resources Coal Resource3 Primary Energy Production Energy Consunption Energy Trade

13 % 42 43 13 10 14

Russia posse~ses the largest in the world fuel and energy resources which are capable to completely satisfy energy needs of the country in the tiuture and provide opportunities far an active participation of the Russian FEC in the farmation of the world energy market. As compared to the USA and many other large industrial countrie~ of the world, the territory of Russia is consid­erable less explored far fossil fuels. However, Russia possesses approximately one eight of all the proved recoverable world oil reserves, more than two fifth of the natural gas reserves, and more than one fifth of be coa! reserves. Undeveloped water power resources of Russia are approximately equal to the annual produc­tion of electric energy by all the electric power stations of the country. In spite of the acute economic crisis, which affected the FEC very mucha stable fu el and energy supply has been preserved practically everyw:1ere. The production of primary energy re-

3

Fig. 2 PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY RESOURCES

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000 natural gas .._.

e: <l)

(<; 900 .::: ::::i cr <l)

·a 800

o 700

e: B

e: 600 .S! .E

500 oil

400

300

200

100

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 199'2 1993

4

sources substantially exceeds the interna] reguircments. That allows Russia to keep an export potential of ~ts FEC ata relatively high level. In spite of a decrease in the total export in 1993, as compared to 1991, the share of Russia in the world energy re­sources trade was preserved a t rather high level: more than 300 mi. tons of oil eguivalent (to.e.) were exported in 1993.

The demand for fuel and energy considerably decreased because of the economic recession in the last few years, manifold price growth for energy carriers, and the decline in the living standard of the population. Among the other unfavorable factors were: (1) an investrnent shortage, (2) a break of economic tics of Russia with former Soviet Republics of thc possessing the most important production capacities for the output of equiprnent, machinery, and materials needed to support the functioning and developing russian fueJ producing enterprises, (3) a lack of legal regulation and effective economic mechanism in the sphere of fue] and energy production and consumption, (4) the existence of an inadeguate system of the price formation for energy carrie rs, and (5) an excessive indebtedness of energy consumers to energy suppliers. A combination of these difficulties led to a decrease in fu el and electric energy prod uction and considera ble deteriora ti on of technical leve! ftnd financia! position of the FEC.

The other substantial negativefoctor in the development of the energy industry of the country is an extremely low effective­ness in the use of energy resources. This negative factor affect the FEC as well as practically all the other national economic com­plexes including residential and commercial sectors. The energy intensity of Russian economy is two-three times higher than in many other developed countries of the world. Recently this index showed a tendency toward a stable deterioration. In other words, we can observe a stable increase in the consumption of energy resources calculated pcr unit of a gross interna] product. The potential of energy conservation in 1993 Gin be estimated by a value, which could be equivalent or little higher than the volume of oíl production in thc country. The developmcnt of even a part of this energy conservation poten tia] would aJlow to considerably decrease the load on branchcs of the FEC and to increase an export of energy resources. This would lead to cnormous positive conse­quences for the economy of the country, in general, and for improvement in the living standard of the Russian population in particular.

5

Fig. 3 ENERGY CONSERVATION POTENTIAL IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY BY 1994

Sector of Notional Economy

Fuel Energy Complex Housing and Communal Service Agriculture Transport lndustry Total

The first figure - probability The second figure - optimum

min. to.e.

80 - 125 50 - 60 20 - 25 30 - 40

11 o ~ 130 280 - 380

Regarding the above-said, a radical increase in the effective­ness of fue] and energy use in the national economy is now considered as a primary task for Russia. To atta in this objective, it is necessary to take several measures including the following: (1) the transfer of the Russian economy to methods of energy-conser­va tive development by perfection of the structure and increase in technical leve! of the national economy, in general, and its FEC, in particular, (2) the creation and wide introd uction of new highly effective energy-conserva tion technologies, eguipment a nd mate­rials, and (3) the application of legislativc regulations and effective economic mechanisms in fue! and energy supply and consump­tion. This objective is vcry importírnt for the achievemcnt of a stabilization in the Russian FEC and further increase in the produc-

Fig. 4 FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSERVATION IN RUSSIA (FORECAST RELATIVELY TO 1992)

min. t :).e.

Measures 1995 2000 201 J

Organizational-Technical 15-30 30-50 60-8-0 Energy Conservation Tech-nology and Equipmet 5 20-70 150-250 lmproving Structure of Economy 0-15 15-45 90-1 70 Total 35-50 65-165 2100-500

The first figure - probability The second figure - optimum

6

tion of energy resources. We should also bear in mind that, at least, in the nearest future, the affectiveness of thc most of energy conservation meas u res will be severa 1 times higher as compared to measures aimed at energy resources production growth.

At this stage, the Energy Policy of Russia is mainly aimed at the achievement of the most effective use of national natural energy resources1 which are uniquc in their size and variety. Tt should provide a stable fue] and energy supply1 promote the social-economic restoration, further development of the economy, and increase in the living standard of the Russian Federation population.

To achieve this objective, it is necessary to pursue such a Sta te Energy Policy, which would comply with new conditions ap­peared dueto the transition of the economy and energy industry to the market relations. Such a policy should combine certain contradictory interests and provide a stable balance of the follow­ing factors:

- requirements for the provision of a reliable and effective supply of the nati ::mal economy and population with fuel and energy;

- inevitable (in spite of planncd larger scale measures for the energy conservation) growth of interna! energy resources de­mands. This growth is related to thc impending restoration and further developme:1t of the national cconomy and ensuring a new higher and more qualified living standard for the population;

- more strict standards for the preservation and, in many regions of the country, improvement of the natural environment, deteriorated because of anthropogenic activities also for the pre­venting possible global climatic changes;

- necessity of a radical decrease of financia!, material, and labor resources for meeting the energy demands anda decrease in the allocations of funds from the federal budget;

- combination of market mechanisms and federal regulation to salve problems of energy supply and energy conservation;

- preventing be energy intensity growth of the economy and the subsequent transfer of the economy toan energy-conservative way of the development;

- the aspiration to provide a merited Russian participation in the world energy market;

- necessity to overcome technical lagging behind in the energy production and consumption as well as to abandon raw material orientation of the energy export.

7

The transfer of the Russian economy to the energy conserva­tive way of development along with a reduction of expenditures for fue! and energy supply, will allow to: (1) solve quickly and efficiently a considerable part of the general problem on the sanitation of the ecological environment in the Russian Federation, (2) fulfil obligations taken by our country to the world community on the natural environment protection.

Fig. 5. CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY IN RUSSIA RESOURCES IN 2000 ANO 2010 IN COMPARISON WITH 1993

1990 1993 Forecast 2000 2010

Primary Energy Resources.

Total ml n. to.e. 880 765 665-765 710-840 Electricity, TWh 1073 937 800-990 1050-1250

Thermal Energy, min. Gcal 2075 1950 1810-1920 1880-2010 Primary Energy Resources, per Copita, t o.e. 5,9 5,2 4,5-5, l 4,6-5,5 Electricity, per Copita

kWh 7,2 6,4 5,8-6,6 7,1-8,3 Energy lntensity, % 100 140 168-102 110-77 Electricity lntensity, "lo 100 141 178-108 138-94

The implementation of the outlined federal and regional programs on energy conservation should allow to decrease he energy demands in 2010 by 300 mi. t o.e. according to the most probable scenario.

Approximately half of the planned conservation of energy resources is supposed to be reached at the expense of technical reequi pment of the energy prod ucing and energy cons uming basic production assets and due to the application of the existing, creation, and introduction of new energy conservation technolo­gies, equipment, and materials. The other part of the savings in the energy resources should be provided by a structural reconstruc­tion of the economy and implementation of a complex of special measures. Thcse mcasures include Icgislative regulation, intro­duction of an effective economic mechanism, control and regula­tion of energy resources consumption.

The attainment of the outlined levels of energy conservation should restrain the growth of the interna! requirements of the

8

country in the primary energy resources. lt also will allow to keep the primary energy demands in 2010 ata leve) of 1993. The total production of the pr¡mary energy resources is envisaged to be only inconsiderably incrrnsed wi thin the coming 15-20 years. Anyhow, this growth should not exceed 18% as compared to 1993. This growth of the fue] and energy production should provide a preservation or even certain increase of the export potential of the Russian FEC.

Fig. 6 ENERGY CONSUMPTION

700 Electric Power

Stations 600

500 Q)

o ....... 400 lndustry ........ :2:

300

-fousing and Communal 100 Services

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Years

9

The energy demand is believed to be defined in the future by the following major factors: economic development; energy price dynamics; and successes gained in energy conservation policy. As the major energy resource exporter, Russia features close interre­lation of these factors that, taken together, establish possible fu tu re development scenarios.

Estima tes of energy demand ha ve provided for the following three scenarios of social and economic development of the coun­try: optimistic, probable and pessimistic.

The optimistic scenario relies on successful implementation of the government's plans to again financia] stability in 1994 in the nation economy, slow-down of industrial decline in 1995, flatten­ing development rates in 1996, fast recovery by 2000 followed by consistent growth at 3.5 - 4% annual rates. This scenario envisages drastic changeover of the social system accompanied by economic restructuring and active energy and resource conservation policy.

The _probable scenario supposes overcoming the economic recession in 1997 / 98, economic recovery during seven or eight years to reach the pre-crisis leve!, followed by further growth at 3 - 3,5% annual rates. This scenario also suggests an active energy and resource conservation policy, but less efficient compared to the previous case, in part due to more moderate pricing poiicy.

The pessimistic scenario imitates continued economic stag­nation virtually to 2000 and supposes delayed recovery of the living standard tha t could be se en by a nother genera tion of people.

Within the considered prospects, certain changes in the structure of fina 1 cons um ption of energy carriers, concerning wa ys of their use and types of the applied energy carriers, will take place. These changes will be expressed in an increase in the share of transport, residential and commercial sectors in the total volume of energy consumption. Simultaneously, the share of industry will decrease. That corresponds to a reorientation of the FEC to the primary sol u tion of social problems of the society. Alongwith this, a noticeable increase in the share of high quality environmentally clean energy sources (electrical energy and natural gas) in the consumption structure at the final stage will take place. The latter changes will be tightly related to changes in the primary energy production structure aimed atan increase of the share of natural gas from 48% in 1993 to 56 % in 2010. The oil share (including gas condensa te) will decrease from 33 % to 25-27%, whereas the coa! share will s tay approximately at the same level of about 11 %

]()

Enhancement of FEC facilities efficiency and higher competi­tive power both on the domes tic and international markets would necessitate a major restructuring in the FEC.

The following two steps for such restructuring have been envisaged by the Strategy:

During the first stage (the nearest 3-5 years) the competitive capacity of the Russian energy resources would be defined by ability of related enterprises to adapt themselves to continuously changing market environments in Russia and to gain access to the world markets rather than switching to new investment projects. It will be most important during this period to ensure survival of the energy plants in conditions of growing overdue payments for energy, shortage of working capital and progressive ageing of fixed assests. These problems will be probably met successfully by major associations such a Russian Joint-Stock Company (RAO) Gazprom and RAO EES Rossii (Russian Unified Electric Power System), but the future of smaller associations and independents will be, to a considerable extent; dependent upon efficiency of the government's actions aimed at atabilisation of FEC as well as incentives coming from local authorities and companies them­selves.

Such action should include the following: - easing the overdue payment crisis through payment of the

state' s debts to budget-supported energy-consuming enterprises and improvement of the billing sys tems used to cover energy cos ts, in particular, via forced repayment using the debtor's shares:

- staté-originated energy pricing policy that can ensure self­support among the FEC enterprises and that would facilitate energy use efficiency, bearing in mind that the dynamics that the energy prices are moving to the world levels should account for adaptation rates admissible for ali major industries in Russia;

- establishment within federal / regional regulatory bodies and by the companies of purpose-specific investment funds that will employ deductk>ns from product cost, with a right to use this money solety for investments in the FEC and energy conservation measures;

- establishment, based on rent payments within FEC, of an insurance social support fund that could help survive the employ­ees of stagnated energy enterprises or those planned for phasing out.

Successful implementation of these and other anti-crisis measures would offer the following at this stage:

11

Fig. 7 PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY RESOURCES

Energy Resources 1990 1993 Forecast** 2000 20 10

Oil and Condensate, mln. t .515 355 270-305 270-340 Natural Gas. bln.cub.m. 640 618 660-740 740-860 Coal. mln.t 396 306 250-270 300-375 Water Power, TWh 167 174 168-170 175-185 Nuclear Energy, TWh 11 8 11 9 120-125 120-150 Total , mln . t o.e. 1300 1070 990- 1100* 1100-1260*

* lnc luding nontraditional renewabie sourc es of energy : 5 m l n. t o.e . in 2000 and 15 min. t o.e. in 201 O.

** The first figu ~e - required The second figure - maximum possible.

- termination of gas producti on d ecline (reportcd sincere­centiy) thus rl'covc ring the prev io us hig h leve] by 1995 / 96, fol­lowed by boos led gas productio n from cxis ting fi elds, improve­ment of cxis ti ng: gas li ne cu paci ty and constructio:1 of a ncvv exports gas pipe line v ia Be larus and Pola nd coming to Ce ntra l Europe;

- s low-dow n and latc r, in 1996-97, te rmination of oíl and conde nsa te prod uction d ecline fo l lowed by cx tcnsiv e re furbish­ment in the oil rdining ind us try to i ncrcase thc lcve l o f petrolc um refi ni ng a nd to e ns u re bettcr pc tro lcum prod ucts quality;

- bcftirl' the c nd of this s tagc, tos top the ge neral decline in coal mining acco mpanied by co ntinuo us structural changes in the secto r thus bons ting opcn-pit producti on in the ·2as tern rcgions o f the country, followcd by g radual, controll ed decrease in mine production and phasing-o ut inefficicnt enterpriscs;

- consid erable increases of energy and economic effici e ncy for po vvc r genern ting facilities via demothballing and rdurbish­ment o f agcd and odsolcte equipmc nt as wcll as incrcased share of combined heat a mi povver ge nera tion and red uced load primarily on cond e nsa tion powcr p la nts w hen clcctricity consumption lcvel is lowe r;

- maintain powcr gc ne rati on by nuclear powe r whe re it is economica 11 y jus ti fiabl e a nd red uction of their output in other regio ns if ckctricity use bcco rnes low er, and with account to compctitivc <1 d vantages of nucl ear faci liti es ve rsus fossil fue l powc r planls;

12

400 <D

o 350 +-'

e 300 ~

250

Fig. 8 EXPORT OF ENERGY

1995 2000 2005 2010

foster consumers interest to use alternative sources of energy including nc n-traditional renewable sources.

The energy output dynamics envisaged by the Energy Strat­egy of Russia would ensure both domestic energy demand and sorne increases of en·=rgy 6xport by the end of this stage along with be tter export product strucLire in favour of higher share of pre­processed energy types.

At the second s tage (to be completed by 2010) the improve­ment of industrial st::-ucture within FEC is supposed to be effected by competitive factcrs.

The decline in oil prod uction (including gas condensa te), which has been continued d uring the three years, is envisaged to be stopped in 1995-1996, and then increased. However, even in 2010, we shall i\ot rea ch the ·Ji! prod uction level of 1990.

Considering the neces~ ity to preserve oil and oil products export, the problem :)f the suppJy of the country with motor fuel is planned to be solved, first, by the application of a more deep oil refining . Oil refi ning plants should be reconstructed and modern­ized to achieve this objective. Certain important measures should be taken for the oil conservation and its replacement by other

13

energy carriers. In particular, an expanded application of gas and its processing products used as a motor fue! should take a special place in this prognosis.

The decline in coa! production will be stopped after 1995, and in 2010 the coa! production will stay at the present day leve!.

In the considered prospects, the main part of the expected energy demand growth and compensation for the decline in oil and coal production will be provided by an increase of natural gas production in 2010 by 20-40% as compared to 1993. The gas industry is the only branch of the FEC, which, in spite of economic difficulties has completely preserved its potential. Moreover, the gas industry is capable to considerably increase fue! production within the coming years.

Traditional and nontraditional renewable energy sources, in spite of an expected growth of energy production based on them, cannot substantially contribute to the energy balance of the coun­try. In 2010, theirshare in the total primary energy production will be at the leve! of 5% ..

After the crea tion and development of safe nuclear power stations of a new generation, envisaged by the end of the XX century, the nuclear energy will resume its large-scale develop­ment. In 2010, the total production of the nuclear energy may exceed the 1993 leve! by one fourth. In 2010, the share of nuclear power stations in the total production of electric energy will approximately stay at the level of 1993, i.e. 11-12%.

In future, we ha ve to solve severa) important regional prob­lems of energetics, also ecological, industrial within branch and interbranch scientific-technical problems. We have to carry out a new investment policy for the FEC and introduce a legislative regulation in the sphere of the production and consumption of energy resources. The country encountered a problem related to the application of a Sta te antimonopoly policy in the sphere of fuel and energy supply. Formerly, in the planned economic system conditions, such a problem was not known. It is necessary to solve a number of complex problems on the perfection of the State management in the FEC and complement an international eco­nomic and scientific-technical cooperation of Russia in a new way.

In the conditions of the creating controlled energy market, the State price in the sphere of fue! and energy supply should become one of the main levers for the regulation in production and consumption of fue! and energy, and in energy-conservation. The lower Limits of the interna! prices already in the neares t future

14

should exceed the leve! providing self-financing of produce~ of energy resources.

On the whole, the considered prospects envisage that the country will continue to be one of the largest exporters of energy resources . However, the prospects also envisage serious changes in the exportstructure aimed atan increase in the deep fuel refining products share alo1-.g with a corresponding decrease in the share of energy raw materials. In 2010, as compared to 1993, the crude petroleum export is planned to be decreased approximately byone third, whereas export of the light petroleum products, on the contrary, should be considerably increased .

The export of natural gas should be increased in the coming years, and in 2010, it might be 1.5 times higher than in 1993. Thus,

Fig. 9 EXPORT OF NATURAL GAS

240

220

E 200

..e :::l (.)

180 minimum e::

c::a

160

1995 2000 2005 2010

15

in future, the decline in the export of liquid fue! will be compen­sated by a growth of the natural gas export. It is also envisaged that all the natural gas, before its delivery for export, w ill be processed far extract valuable components.

In the last almost 50 years, practically all the fundamental and applied scientific problems in the field ofenergetics used to be solved by the Russian science. The researches and developments of Russian scientists in many scientific fields do not concede the best wo rld achievements. These works include as follows: (1) the transmission of electricity over ultra long-range distances under high voltage of the alternating and direct currents, (2) the creation of safe nuclear powe r s tatio ns of a new generation, (3) the highly effective combined production of electricity and heat energy, and (4) the introduction of ultra long-range distant transport of large gas quantities us ing gas pipe lines with a diameter reaching 1.4 m.

A long with it, some Russian researches and developments in one way or another turned out to be backward as compared to the advance foreign achievements. They comprise the following types of researches and developments: (1) the introduction of combined cycle power stations and gas turbine power stations, (2) the solution of environrnental problems in electric energetics, (3) the cut of non-productive losses of electric and heat energy during its transportation and dis tribution to final consumers, (4) the automa­tion of technological processes during the production of electric energy and heat.

Changes, taking place in the social system of the country and in economic relations, considerably reduced possibilities of the State to finance scientific-technical progress at the expense of the federal budget. However, in future, the Sta te will preserve impor­tant levers of influence on scientific-technical progress in the energetics.

In the forthcoming years of the transitive period, a serious financia] support at the expense of the State budget should be preserved for the most important lines of the scientific-technical progress s uch as:

- the protec tion of the natural environment at this stage and its furth er improve rnent. The State financia! support (as we!l as Iegislative regulation, tax and credit stimulation, establishing of tariffs for harmful discharges, etc.) for the solution of this task in the sphcre of scicntific-technical progrcss should concern the crea tion and devclopment of new technologies and equipment. Thesc measures s hould provide serious positive ecological effec ts

16

both from the part of prod ucers of primary energy resources and energy-carriers, delivered to energy consumers, and from the part of final consumers ~lf fuel and energy;

- the most promising and Jargest energy sources develop­ment. First, this concerns involving in the energy balance salid fuels and hydrocarbon deposits, occurring in almost inaccessible areas and characterized by underdeveloped infrastructure, severe clima te and unfavo:·able mining-geological environments, such as shelf of the Northern seas, Yamal Península, and others;

- the solution of large specific scientific-technical problems, which could have a limited state significance, but the achievement of results is related to a great risk preventing commercial struc­tures and industry branches from investing. Such problems in­clude ali the prospecting works and fundamental investigations (thermonuclear energetics, superconductivity, space energetics, synthetic fuels, etc.);

-the provision of safety in nuclear energy. It means the solution of scientific-technical problems related to modernization and reconstruction of the acting nuclear power stations and re­search reactors, cre:ition and development of nuclear power sta­tions of a new generation, solution of problems on localization (liguidation) of radioactive wastes, first, long-living radioactive wastes.

A new technical policy in energetics will be oriented at a radical increase of effectiveness within ali stages of production, transformation, distribution and utilization of energy resources. Safety in the energy industry should be provided in the framework of industry branch problems financed from budgets ofjoint-stock companies, nonbudget funds, commercial structures, certain in­terested companies, enterprises, and organizations. Here, the Sta te should have a possibility to exert certain influence in the whole process of the scientific technical progress, specially at the initial stage (within the nearest 2-3 years) by legislative regulation, realization of corresponding tax and credit policy, which attracts an interest in the acceleration of scientific-technical progress at ali levels of energy economy management.

This policy will be implemented within the following lines of the scientific-technical progress in branches of the FEC.

In the electrici ty gcneration section R and D should be aimed atan increase of the reliubility, safety, and effectiveness of electric and heat supply industries coupled with an undeviating obser­vance of requircments for the environmental protection. For the

17

solution of these tasks, it is necessary to create and organize the production of an equipment for the application of technologies of new qualities, which could provide technical re-equipment and reconstruction of existing and construction of new more effective objccts of the electricity sector. The involvement of local energy resources, including their nontraditional types, for the production of electric energy and heat is also envisaged.

The scíentific-technical progress in electric energetics is also aimed at the creation and wide application of combined cycle power stations . The combined cycle should be used in new con­structcd electric power stations designated for the work on natural gas, and in reconstructed steam turbine power sta tíons working on gas. During the same period, a possibilíty of an industrial use of thermal power stations with furnaces of a fluidized bed on solid fuel might be shown. The workon an increase of operating nuclear power sta ti o ns sa fety leve! will be mainly completed. Solar, wind, and geothermal power plants, as well as bioenergetic plants will be widely developed.

A numbcr of tasks of the scíentifíc-technical progress wíll be put for the solution in the gas-oil complex. They are related to the perfection of the existing, elaboration and introduction of new methods, technologies and technical means for prospection and exploration of oil reserves. These works include prospection and exploration of deep-seated horizons, uncontoured traps for highly viscous oíls, natural bitumens, low-permeable collectors, gas con­densa te and natural gas.

The works are aimed at the provision of the oíl-gas complex of the country with resources and ata growth of proved recover­able reserves of the hydrocarbon raw material. The main attentíon will be paid to thc implementation of the following measures: (1) the creation of a complex of technologies and technical means for geological-geophysical and technological investigations for drill­ing of inclined and horizontal explora tion boreholes a t oil deposits; (2) the organization of an up-to-date system forcollecting, keeping, and treatment of various geological-geophysical information; (3) the introduction of a technology of comp!ex geodynamic monitor­ing and 1nodels for different engineering-geological and geocryo!ogical environments at the developed hydrocarbon de­posits; (4) the application of measures for an increase in labour productivity of drilling works by the elaboration of new ways for rock destruction, including hydraulic mining for the driving of

18

vertical, inclined, and horiwntal boreholes, and combined equip­ment for the driving of mining workings, etc.

There are formidable tasks to be solved in sea extraction of oíl and gas transportation.

In the coa! mining industry, an increase in the productivity, safety, and improvement of labour conditions d uring coal mining; dressing, and reprocessing will be reached by the application of the following measures: (1) the creaticin and development of technolo­gies and technical means providing an increase in the mechaniza­tion level for mining of coal seams using short-wall faces in complex mining-geological environments; (2) the coal mining from steep-sloping seams using hydraulic method, working out gently sloping coal seams with barren rocks completely left in 'shafts and mining of highly gaseous gently sloping seams with the application of inert compounds; (3) the introduction of a nontradi­tional coal mining and unloading of coa! seams by hydroimpulse method; (4) the development of an underground coal extraction using physicochemical, vibroimpulse, and other methods of coal seam mining; (5) the application of environmentally clean coal dressing; (6) transportation and burning water-coal suspension.

This policy in ecology is targeted at red uction of technogeneous impacts of FEC on the environment.

In reduced environmental pollution, a considerable role is given to optimization of fuel and energy balance as well as maximum energy conservation attainable along with improve­ment of facility allocation and types accounting to specific regional environments.

It is necessary to introduce a continuous environmental monitoring in major energy producing regions (Western Siberia, Kuzbass, etc.) and to transfer from "rated maximum admissible releases" criterion to "upper limit of nature stability under FEC's technogeneous impacts".

While forming the technology-related policy, it is necessary to move away from capturing hazardous releases to their elimina­tion in the sources, as a result of tracing-back the whole train of energy transformations.

It is also necessary to foster transfer to wasteless technologies through utilisation of associated gas in the oilfields and mines along with use of drilling cuttings and ash }slag wastes of power plants (both newly produced and accumulated in ash dumps) in construction applications. ·

19

To crea te a legal basis for the ecological policy it is envisaged to approve necessary regulatory documents in the nearest future, based on a system for estimation of environmental impacts.

Implementation of these measures should ensure, by 2010, a 30-40 % reduction of hazardous atmospheric emissions and as soon as mid-1990s should stabilize green-house gas releases thus eliminating FEC-provoked possible clima te changes on the Earth.

The Energy Policy in Russia will be pursued regarding radical changes in the social-political system and situation in economic and geopolitic position of the country as well as the adopted course for its integration into the world economic system. This policy endoses obligation of the Russian Federation resulting from its participation in the European Energy Charter and other international agreements concluded.

One of the main principies of a New Energy Policy of Russia consists of a reorientation of the FEC to the priority solution of social needs of the society and for the satisfaction of increased requirements for the protection and improvement of natural environrnent. The New Energy Policy implies that a really eco­nomic freedom of branches of the fuel energy division of compe­tencies and functions between federal management bodies, on the one hand, and energy business, on the other hand. The scope of the competence of federal bodies, which are responsible for the man­agement of energy supply, should include as follows:

- the prognostication of production and requirements in energy resources;

- the choice of the priority ways of structural and technologi­cal perfection of energy economy of the country;

- the Sta te support of the priority development by the elabo­ration and realization of a financial assistance at the expense of the federal budget assets;

- the elabora tion of legisla ti ve acts and economic mechanisms in the sphere of energy Siipply, energy consumption, and energy conservation as well as the realization of price, credit, tax, and rent policy in energetics, which comply with interests of regions and the Federation, on the whole;

- the elaboration of recommendations to be considered dur­ing the realizations of the regional energy policy.

At the federal level, the main principies of the State Energy Policy include the following:

- rational requirements of the Russian society in fuel and energy resources;

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- the main directions for the perfection of the structure of the fuel and energy balance of the country as well as the priority tasks on an increase of technical leve! and effectiveness in the FEC;

- conditions p:oviding an optima! combination of the devel­opment of fuel br<mches at different stages, preservation and further development of electric, gas and petroleum supply sys­tems and large interregional fue! and electric energy complexes as integral organisms;

- ways for an accelerated transfer of the economy of the country toan energ/ conservation way of the development. These measures include fUrposeful changes in the economy structure toward a decrease in the share of energy intensive industries along with a simultaneou;; increase in the share of high technology and low energy intensive branches;

- the main dirEctions for the solution of tasks on the environ­ment protection agé.inst negative influence of energy objects;

- ways for the activation in the framework of the European Energy Charter of the participation of the Russian Federa tion in the international labor division in the sphere of fue! and energy supply, increase in the effectiveness of fue! and energy utilization as well as gradual adaptation of Russia to provisions of the European Energy Charter Agreement, for the realization of which Russia is not yet ready.

The most important methods for the realization of the main provisions of the Erergy Policy of Russia will be as follows:

-the elaboration and introductionof a new system of the price formation in the fue! and energy supply providing a profitableness of ali the objects of the fuel energy complex. The preservation of necessary protectior:ism for especially energy intensive industries and channelling large rent payments and tax collections of federal and regional budgets are also envisaged;

- purposeful fo~mation of an energy market in Russia accom­panied by a gradual liquidation of established monopolies in the field of fue! and ener:~y supply. These measures will be taken along with indispensable preservation of a possibility of the realization of the Sta te Energy Policy at the federal level:

- the creation cf a legislative base and economic conditions providing a wide participation of all layers of the Russian society in the financing and management of the energy economy.

The Energy Strategy of Russia relies on international coop­eration as a possib·e additional and important contributor to

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stabilization of conditions in the domestic FEC and its further successful development, thus helping Russia maintain its impor­tant role in meeting energy demand, natural gas in particular, in the majority of European countries and a number of other states.

The strategic goal of international cooperation in energy­related sectors is a strong improvement of energy efficiency since it changes the quality of Russia's presence on the world markets and crea tes favorable conditions to draw, in rational volumes and on mutually beneficia! terms, foreign investments needed to gain better competitive power of energy prod uction and power genera­tion in the Russian Federation.

The following is necessary for this: - crea tion of conditions for introd uction of an efficient pricing

policy; - movement to new, paying markets; - transfer from primary energy exports to product supplies; - improvement of the contractual base to use in government

relations, including a pa yment guarantee system accepted interna­tionally;

- creation of a consistent legal environment attractive for economic interests of foreign investors and applicable for Russian conditions;

- long term settlement of currency-related and financia! problems with both creditors and debtors;

- ensuring efficient protection of Russia's foreign economic interests via introduction of viable hard-currency, export and customs regulations, reasonable taxation policy, etc.

The energy-related exports policy will facilitate, to a maxi­mum extent, the integration of domestic economy into the world economic relations. On the one hand, this means necessary rap­prochement of domestic and world prices for energy and other products (and, certainly, labour payment levels) and on the other, broad access of foreign investors (along with their management methods and technologies) to devel'opment of Russian energy resources including exports projects.

The Energy Strategy declares following principies of rela­tions with foreign partners:

- relations with foreign states, organizations and firms shall rely on national interests of the Russian Federation and mutual benefits;

- all forms of foreign investment are applicable for the entry to Russian FEC development (foreign credits including those with

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mortgage of energy deposits, joint ventures where a portian of produced, processe:i or saved energy could be used as a repay­ment too!, along with field concession and other) except for limitations envisagEd legally by Russian Federation and its repub­lics;

- any type of participation of national entities in foreign energy enterprises is permitted if this is aimed to improve the efficiency and reliability of energy supply to domes tic consumers.

Based on these objectives and principies, the Energy Strategy will help maintain a considerable part of energy exports, natural gas and liquid fuel in particular, during the whole period consid ­ered.

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COMENTARIOS

ING. ENRIQUE VAZQUEZ DOMINGEZ

ACADEMICO DE NUMERO ACADEMIA MEXICANA DE INGENIERA

La Conferenda del Dr. Volfberg resultó una oportunidad de excepción para lo.; académicos presentes. No es frecuente poder escuchar y cuestionar a quien aplica los principios básicos de la ingeniería química para orientar los destinos energéticos y tecno­lógicos del país con las mayores reservas mundiales de recursos energéticos ·primarios. · '

El Dr. presentó cifras, describió con claridad la situación de su país, los problemas que enfrentan, las soluciones que han formulado y los resultados que esperan.

Para captar objetivamente el signíficado de sus 'cifras se procedió a compararlas con datos de México, encontrándose que la producción rusa de crudo, no obstante la fuerte declinación de los últimos años, más que duplicó en 1993 a la de México. En gas natural producen 15 veces más. Son superavitarios en energéticos primarios al grado que sus exportaciones de energía expresadas en crudo equivalente. más que duplican la producción mexicana.

De la situación y problemas descritos en la presentación, procede destacar lo siguiente: las declinaciones significativas en producción de crudo, carbón y gas; las limitaciones en recursos de inversión; las consecuencias de la situación política reciente; la contaminación del ambiente y el exagerado consumo de energía per cápita, que acusa una marcada ineficiencia a ser entre 2 y 3 veces mayor que El de otros países desarrollados.

En sus objeti-.ros y programas sobresalen el dar satisfacción completa a la demanda energética doméstica, no obstante la reactivación econémica que prevén; la formulación de mecanis­mos legales, mercantiles y económicos que eficienticen la relación producción / consumo; la protección satisfactoria del ambiente y el cumplimiento de los convenios internacionales al respecto; el mejoramiento tecn::>lógico en la producción y refinación de crudo así como en la generación y transmisión eléctricas; el mayor uso de gas natural y energía nuclear y, sobre todo, como tarea primordial, el ahorro de energía del cual esperan cantidades comparables al volumen total de crudo que producen.

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Comentario especial merecen el orden y sistema con los que han diagnosticado sus complejos problemas y la habilidad que muestran en sus soluciones, algunas de ellas con efectos múltiples como es el caso del ahorro de energía que además de aumentar drásticamente su producción neta a muy bajo costo constituye su mejor avance ecológico, ya que la forma definitiva de controlar los contaminantes es no generarlos. Destaca por otra parte, a nivel internacional, su programa de aplicación de gas natural como combustible vehícular.

Es de coincidir con ellos en que estas medidas podrán permitirles, prácticamente sin aumentar su producción para el año 2010, mantener sus exportaciones mejorándolas en estructura (más productos refinados y más gas natural sustituyendo crudo), disminución de 30 ó 40% de emisiones contaminantes para el año 2010, "enormes consecuencias positivas" para su economía y para el nivel de vida de su población.

Dado que la problemática rusa tiene similitudes notables con .la mexicana, y por el nivel jerárquico y calidad del conferencista, la presentación fue excelente desde el punto de vista informativo y por las interesantes reconsideraciones que sugiere a los enfoques que estamos aplicando los ingenieros mexicanos.

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COMENTARIOS

ING. JUAN EIBENSCHUTZ HARTMAN

ACADEMICO DE NUMERO ACADEMIA MEXICANA DE INGENIERA

La situación energética de la Federación Rusa, principal heredera de la antigua Unión de Repúblicas Socialistas Soviéticas, ha tenido cambios enormes derivados sobre todo de la transformación del sistema sociopolítico. Estos cambios se dan, además cuando el mundo se encuentra preocupado por la sustentabilidad del desarrollo, más que por el desarrollo mismo.

Durante las últimas décadas los objetivos del sistema energético se limitaron a la satisfacción de la demanda interna y a la exportación, que alcanzó hasta del orden de la tercera parte de la producción total de energéticos primarios. La política energética no consideraba, ni como objetivos ni como restricciones, las mejoras en eficiencia o el impacto ambiental de los procesos energéticos, la industria energética, independientemente de ser la más grande del mundo era ineficiente y ·altamente contaminante.

En 1990 la producción total de energéticos primarios llegó a 1300 millones de toneladas equivalentes de petróleo y tres años más tarde disminuyó a 1070 millones de toneladas de petróleo equivalente . La producción de petróleo crudo y condensados pasó de 515 millones de toneladas en 1990 a 355 millones de toneladas en 1993. A pesar de la importante reducción de los niveles de producción, las exportaciones se mantuvieron en torno a los 300 millones de toneladas equivalentes de petróleo durante el año pasado.

El Dr. Volfberg se refiere al complejo energético y de combus­tibles (fuel energy complex) de la Federación Rusa, que es la principal poseedora de recursos energéticos del mundo. A pesar de que su enorme territorio tiene todavía muchas regiones insuficientemente exploradas, la Federación Rusa cuenta con más de la octava parte de las reservas probadas de petróleo, mas de las dos quintas partes de las reservas mundiales de gas natural y más del 20% de las reservas de carbón, reafirmando su posición como el país más rico en recursos energéticos, a los que hay que añadir un potencial hidroeléctrico equivalente al de la electricidad

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generada por todas las centrales eléctricas de la Federación en 1993.

Las restricciones económicas que enfrenta el país han tenido importantes efectos sobre su complejo energético, destacándose la espectacular caída de la producción petrolera, que disminuyó, según los datos presentados por el conferencista, 160 millones de toneladas anuales entre 1990 y 1993, esto es, pasó de casi 10 millones de barriles diarios a menos de 7, con lo cual Rusia dejó de ser el primer productor mundial de petróleo.

Posiblemente lo más impactante en esta presentación es que la estrategia descrita por el Dr. Volfberg, refleja una concientización ante las preocupaciones manifestadas prácticamente por todos los países del mundo, sobre los aspectos ambientales y la eficiencia de los procesos energéticos.

La producción total de energéticos primarios pasaría de 1070 millones de toneladas de petróleo equivalente en 1993 a un rango de 990-1100 en el 2000 y a niveles comprendidos entre 1100y1260 millones de toneladas equivalentes de petróleo en el 2010. Esta estrategia se apoya en las posibilidades de hacer efectivo un potencial de ahorro de energía, que Volfberg estima entre 300 y 500 millones de toneladas equivalentes de petróleo para el año 2010, lo que significa un ahorro potencial de energía, estimado, del orden de la producción total de petróleo en 1990.

Por otra parte, se pretende modificar la estructura de la producción a fin de responder a una repartición en el consumo de energéticos que sea más benigna con el ambiente. En efecto, Volfberg propone que la proporción del gas natural en el balance energético pase del 48% en 1993, al 56% en el 2010, mientras el consumo de petróleo pasaría del 33% a valores comprendidos entre el 25 y el 27%, durante el mismo período. La proporción del carbón se mantendría en un 11 % .

Las medidas requeridas para la implantación de la estrategia energética incluyen una reorientación de la actividad económica hacia industrias menos intensivas en energía, mayor participación de los sectores de servicios en la economía y sobre todo, una estructura de precios y tarifas proporcionales a los costos, más que dictados por consideraciones de política de desarrollo social.

La apertura de la economía y la magnitud de sus recursos energéticos, han hecho que la Federación Rusa sea actualmente uno de los países más atractivos para los inversionistas privados y, en especial, para las grandes compañías energéticas.

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Prácticamente todas las empresas petroleras del mundo se han establecido o están en tratos para plasmar coinversiones Goint ventures) con las múltiples empresas energéticas creadas por la Federación Rusa en el contexto del nuevo régimen.

La industria del gas natural, basada en los recursos de la Federación y en las posibilidades de trasportar el metano mediante gasoductos a un mercado enorme, que ante las ventajas ambientales del gas natural es posiblemente el mayor del mundo, porque ademásenEuropaincluyeaJapón,está enunprocesodecrecimiento acelerado, con la participación de inversionistas privados de todo el mundo.

La nucleoelectricidad alcanza una participación elevada en el complejo energético de la Federación, más del 10% de la energía eléctrica generada en 1993 y casi el 70% de la electricidad producida por las hidroeléctricas en ese año.

Posiblemente debido al accidente de la central de Chernobyl, en los escenarios presentados por el Dr. Volfberg, la nucleoelectricidad se mantiene en los niveles de 1993 o, en el mejor de los casos, pasa de 120 a 150 TWH en el año 2010.

Dados los esfuerzos que se realizan por la Federación, con el apoyo de los países de la OCDE, para mejorar las condiciones de seguridad de las nucleoeléctricas rusas y tomando en cuenta las ventajas en cuanto a impacto ambiental de este tipo de centrales, es probable que los escenarios planteados por el Dr. Volfberg subestimen la futura participación de la nucleoelectricidad.

De cualquier manera, los retos para el "complejo energético y de combustibles" de la Federación Rusa, solo son superados por los retos que impone cambiar del régimen comunista a la economía del mercado.

Seguramente el potencial humano y los abundantes recursos energéticos permitirán que se cumplan los objetivos comprometidos. Indudablemente Rusia seguirá siendo uno de los principales actores en el escenario mundial de la energía.

Por último, resulta interesante comentar que el Dr. Volfberg considera que el papel del Estado como regulador y explorador de los recursos energéticos seguirá vigente.

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Ln Acndemin Mexicnnn de lngenierÍíl, A.C., con el pnlrociniodel ConsejoNacionnl de Cien­cin y Tecnologín, editó el presente Fnscículo, conslnndo In edición de 850 ejemplares.

Ln tipograffo estuvo a cargo de Normn Kobeh González (Diticom) y In impresión de PrornngrMicn Mexicnnn, S./\. de C. V., habién­dose lerminndo In impresió;1 el día 25 de No­viembre de 1994.

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