Duurzaam en Economie; Gaat dat samen? · Energiek 2020, Bleiswijk, 26 Maart 2015. Prof. Dr. André...
Transcript of Duurzaam en Economie; Gaat dat samen? · Energiek 2020, Bleiswijk, 26 Maart 2015. Prof. Dr. André...
Duurzaam en Economie; Gaat dat samen?Energiek 2020, Bleiswijk, 26 Maart 2015.
Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij
Academic Director - Energy Academy Europe
Distinguished Professor Energy System Analysis –University of Groningen
Energy demand, GHG emissions and climate change…
Potential emissions from remaining fossil resources could
result in GHG concentration levels far above 600ppm.
Nervous markets…
The EU Emissions Trading Scheme
Image source: Z.H. Feng, et al. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS. Applied Energy 88 (2011) 590–598.
- Chappin, Dijkema, de Vries, The Wall Street Journal, 2010
• High volatility• Price crashes• Gaming• Windfall profits
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704535004575348924229071164
Energy system transformation…
[GEA/van Vuuren et al CoSust, 2012]
CCS Potential
Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008
1/5 of the
portfolio
Oil critical (imported) fossil fuel
Few countries have substantialrole of renewables (e.g. Demark, Austria, Sweden; mainly due tobioenergy + hydro)
Variable roles for gas and nuclear
Energy mix EU
400 Billion Euro/yr energy imports in EU; and counting…!
Part of Europe in leadership position…
Dutch Energy system
Cijfers voor 2010Bron: CBS/bewerking ECN
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Totaal hernieuwbaar
Hernieuwbaar overig
Zonnecollectoren, geothermie
Wind, PV, Hydro
Water
Wind
Zon PV
Biomassa
Totaal Traditioneel
Kernenergie
Gas
Olie
Kolen
CO2-emissions rise
His
tori
sctr
en
d
CO2-emissions decline
Supply per energy source (PJ/yr)
13
CO₂ - emissies dalen
CO₂ emissies stijgenH
isto
risc
he
tre
nd
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
energiebedrijven
landbouw, visserij endienstverlening
gebouwde omgevingelektriciteit
gebouwde omgevingwarmte
huishoudens
handel, diensten,overheid
landbouw
industrie
verkeer en vervoer
en
erg
ievr
aag
nie
t u
itge
split
st
naa
r se
cto
r
en
erg
ievr
aag
nie
t u
itge
split
stn
aar
sect
or
en
erg
ievr
aag
nie
t u
itge
split
st
naa
r se
cto
r
Demand per sector (PJ/yr)
Diversity in modelling & secneario assumptions...
BBP (billion €)
No. people (mln)
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GreenpeaceRev
Green4sure
SEO-BM
SEO-BAU
PBL-ECN
CPB/MNP -SE
CPB/MNP -RC
CPB/MNP -GE
CPB/MNP -TM
ECN - REF
Historisch
18
18.9
15.8
19.7
17.1
17
17.5
21.2
Ranges energy prices (€/GJ)(for target years in different studies)
Current prices in black
0
5
10
15
20
25
oil coal gas biomass electricity
Bandbreedte in aanname energieprijzen voor de periode 2030 - 2050 (€/GJ)
op basis van 2 rapporten
op basis van 6 rapporten
op basis van 2 rapporten
op basis van 7 rapporten
op basis van 5 rapporten
14
Energy use (PJ/yr)CO2 emissions variy between 34 -
332 Mt/yr in 2050.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenpeace -Revolution
KIVI NIRIA
Green4sure
SEO - BM-P
SEO - BAU-P
PBL/ECN - max
PBL/ECN - auto
PBL/ECN - nu
CPB/MNP - SE
CPB/MNP - RC
CPB/MNP - GE
CPB/MNP -TM
Optied-duurz
ECN REF-plan
ECN REF-vast
ECN REF-geen
Historisch
Economic importance:New industry & employment?
Decline overall employment since 2008But (RET & Eff.) energy sector grewsome 60% and expected to continue.
Gasroundabout Europe?
Biobased economy?
Smart Grids?
Wind Off shore?
PV
Many more examples onSectoral level…
RE costs have declined in the past further declines expected in the future But fossil fuel based energytechnologies (and supplies) learn as wel…
Learning curve for power generation technologies, historic data and POLES WETO reference projection up to 2030.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
And such opportunities can be found in most sectors…
• Improved siting of wind farms (Learning by doing)
• Development of specific components (gear boxes,
generators) and regulating mechanisms (stall/ pitch
regulation) (R&D)
• Mass production of wind turbines (economies-of-scale)
• Upscaling of wind turbines (upscaling)
Factors influencing learning/
unit costs
Example for onshore wind farms:
‘Learning investments’ –
the cost of learning
Source: IEA, 2000
Generic capital cost trend for early
commercial units of a new power
plant technology
Source: EPRI
Capital C
ost
/ U
nit o
f C
apacity
(co
nsta
nt
curr
ency)
Time
First commercial service
Second plant in service
3rd plant
4th plant
5th plant
Estimate Actual
Mature plant costs
Simplified cost estimate with incomplete data
Development period cost estimates
Available for commercial order
Preconstruction and licencing period
Finalized cost estimate
Design / construction period
• Tot 2020:• (Semi-)gesloten kassen;• Aardgas-WKK;• Aardwarmte;• Clustering van glastuinbouwbedrijven;• Energiebesparing.
Actieplan klimaatneutraleglastuinbouw (1)
Na 2020:• Klimaatneutrale (gesloten) kas;• Elektriciteitsleverende kas met spectrumselectieve zonnecellen;• Bio-WKK (alleen gebruik van tweede generatie biomassa);• Aardwarmte;• Clustering van glastuinbouwbedrijven;• Energiebesparing.
Uitgangspunten voor het bereiken van de doelstelling zijn:• De glastuinbouwsector gaat er in de transitiefase (10-15 jaar) economisch niet op achteruit;• De toegepaste alternatieve niet-fossiele brandstoffen leveren geen negatieve milieu-effecten op.
Actieplan klimaatneutraleglastuinbouw (2)
• Van groot energiegebruiker (gas!) naarenergieleverancier.
• Gecombineerd met overall verduurzaming (geslotenkas, recycling nutriënten, water en preventie emissies).
• High tech exportproduct.• Uitstekend voorbeeld van innovatieve sector.• Uitstekend voorbeeld van sector met potentieel om
ecologische footprint fundamenteel te veranderen.• Tegelijk blijft continu investeren en innoveren
essentieel (leercurves…)…• In toenemende mate systeeminnovaties (verweven
met rest energiesysteem (en andere ketens…)).
Perspectief voor glastuinbouw
A.o. IEA (WEO) concluded multiple times that :
• Yes, 450 ppm pathways requires massiveinvestments…
• …but will lead to rapid cost reductions of RET’s and energy efficient technologies…
• …and less pressure on fossil fuel supplies…
• …leading to an overall lower cost and more secure (global) energy supply!
Important notion forin energy science & policy:
• Innovation (R&D + D + D) in energy technologies (supply & demand) is essential (fossil fuels keep learning as well).
• A stable policy and investment climate is a key precondition for success and reaping the benefits of vital new industries and employment. This means:
• Stable (long term) obligatory targets, clear market instruments, intensive collaboration between govt. & market players, innovation system strategy
Final remarks: the essential preconditionsfor essential technological progress
Final remarks…• Transition of the energy system does not allow for
further delays; 2050 targets require considerable acceleration.
• Not only because of climate change (and other ecological concerns) but also because of economic reasons.
• Technical possibilities known; potentials suffice.• Implementation and governance major bottlenecks.• Implications for the energy system, deployment over
time and minimization of costs poorly understood…• …as are the extent to which economic benefits can be
maximized.• System perspective, integral view of impacts and
analysis of governance and business models.• Analysis parallel to implementation.
Time to act and thank youvery much for your attention
[email protected] / [email protected]/scopus/google scholarsrren.ipcc-wg3.de/reportwww.energyacademy.org