COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2ND 2017 · country risk assessment map • 2 nd quarter 2017...
1
UNITED STATES MEXICO ALGERIA ICELAND CCO MALI TUNISIA COSTA RICA PANAMA REPUBLIC HAITI CUBA GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA HONDURAS JAMAICA GUINEA SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA GHANA MAURITIUS ILE DE LA RÉUNION GROENLAND (DENMARK) BURKINA FASO SENEGAL CABO VERDE ITALY SPAIN PORTUGAL FRANCE GERMANY SWITZERLAND CANADA IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM BELGIUM BELIZE BRAZIL ARGENTINA PERU BOLIVIA VENEZUELA ECUADOR KENYA DR CONGO SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO ANGOLA NAMIBIA ZAMBIA MOZAMBIQUE COLOMBIA FRENCH GUYANA DOMINICAN GUYANA SURINAME BURUNDI UGANDA MALAWI ZIMBABWE BOTSWANA PARAGUAY CHILE URUGUAY TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO LIBYA EGYPT SUDAN MADAGASCAR NIGER CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC ETHIOPIA TANZANIA MAURITANIA GABON NIGERIA CHAD IVORY COAST TOGO SAO TOME & PRINCIPE RWANDA ERITREA CAMEROON BENIN CONGO SAUDI ARABIA PAKISTAN OMAN YEMEN IRAQ IRAN DJIBOUTI KUWAIT UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AFGHANISTAN KAZAKHSTAN INDIA TURKEY BANGLADESH ISRAEL JORDAN SYRIA LEBANON CYPRUS NEPAL KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN GEORGIA ARMENIA BAHRAIN QATAR UZBEKISTAN AZERBAIJAN HUNGARY POLAND ROMANIA BULGARIA BOSNIA GREECE AUSTRIA SLOVENIA CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAKIA NORWAY SWEDEN FINLAND UKRAINE LITHUANIA LATVIA ESTONIA BELARUS CHINA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES MORO SRI LANKA MYANMAR VIETNAM CAMBODIA LAOS MALAYSIA TAIWAN MALDIVES HONG KONG SINGAPORE THAILAND RUSSIA AUSTRALIA MONGOLIA JAPAN PAPUA NEW GUINEA NEW ZEALAND SOUTH KOREA GUINEA-BISSAU SERBIA MALTA PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES NORTH KOREA EQUATORIAL GUINEA TIMOR-LESTE SOUTH SUDAN COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2 ND QUARTER 2017 GERMANY FRANCE ITALY SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM FINLAND SWEDEN DENMARK PORTUGAL CELAND IRELAND LITHUANIA LATVIA ROMANIA POLAND UKRAINE BULGARIA HUNGARY SLOVAKIA CZECH REPUBLIC GREECE ALBANIA MONTENEGRO BOSNIA CROATIA SERBIA NETHERLANDS LUXEMBOURG ESTONIA BELARUS MALTA MOLDOVA BELGIUM NORWAY SLOVENIA MACEDONIA SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA 160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY • Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk • Comprehension of the business environment • Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience BUSINESS DEFAULTING RISK VERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D E DOWNGRADES UPGRADES • European Commission’s decision to end the disciplinary process for its excessive budget deficit marks a turning point, even if debt burden is a problem. • After + 1.4% in 2016, the GDP is expected to increase by +2% in 2017 and +1.7% in 2018. Export contribution will remain strong. A3 PORTUGAL B JAMAICA • Country concluded the first review of an IMF stand-by arrangement in April, having achieved its primary fiscal surplus target and completed initial reforms. • Positive real GDP growth has been recorded in 7 consecutive quarters. Investor confidence is at an all-time high. A2 SPAIN • The economy could grow faster in 2017 than anticipated (+2.9 %). The recovery is partly linked to strong exports. • Consumption should remain supported by strong labor market. B RUSSIA • Outlook has deteriorated rapidly on account of the worsening political stand-off. • Increasing tension between the two powers has raised government debt payment risks. C EL SALVADOR • The economic growth remains dynamic and will be supported by the implementation of infrastructure projects. • The more favorable commodity prices will be a tailwind to exports. • The economic reform move under the new President is likely to be positive for investment and business environment. C UZBEKISTAN • Measures imposed by Gulf states against Qatar may exacerbate its external vulnerabilities and could put pressure on its economic growth (reduction of regional trade, corporate profitability damaged) and accounts. • If the situation worsens, it may destabilize nonresident deposits. • The country slipped into technical recession in 4Q 2016. The outlook for 2017 is lackluster, in spite of a recovery in the mining sector, as government spending are lower and monetary policy tightens. • The economic headwinds in South Africa, Namibia’s main commercial partner, are also likely to have a negative impact. A4 B QATAR NAMIBIA • Russian economy recovers from downturn: investment and industrial production increase, retail sales are stable, supported by lower inflation. The corporate profits rose by 5% yoy in Q1 2017, especially in mining and quarrying, electricity gas steam and real estate. A2 B A3 B C A4 C B A4 C E A2 A3
Transcript of COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2ND 2017 · country risk assessment map • 2 nd quarter 2017...
UNITED STATES
MEXICO
ALGERIA
ICELAND
CCO
MALI
TUNISIA
COSTA RICA
PANAMA
REPUBLIC
HAITI
CUBA
GUATEMALAEL SALVADOR
NICARAGUA
HONDURAS
JAMAICA
GUINEA
SIERRA LEONE
LIBERIA GHANA
MAURITIUS
ILE DE LA RÉUNION
GROENLAND(DENMARK)
BURKINAFASO
SENEGALCABO VERDE
ITALY
SPAINPORTUGAL
FRANCE
GERMANY
SWITZERLAND
CANADAIRELAND
UNITED KINGDOM
BELGIUM
BELIZE
BRAZIL
ARGENTINA
PERU
BOLIVIA
VENEZUELA
ECUADOR
KENYA
DR CONGO
SOUTH AFRICA
LESOTHO
ANGOLA
NAMIBIA
ZAMBIA
MOZAMBIQUE
COLOMBIAFRENCHGUYANA
DOMINICAN
GUYANASURINAME
BURUNDI
UGANDA
MALAWI
ZIMBABWE
BOTSWANAPARAGUAY
CHILE
URUGUAY
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
LIBYAEGYPT
SUDAN
MADAGASCAR
NIGER
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
ETHIOPIA
TANZANIA
MAURITANIA
GABON
NIGERIA
CHAD
IVORYCOAST
TOGO
SAO TOME& PRINCIPE
RWANDA
ERITREA
CAMEROON
BENIN
CONGO
SAUDIARABIA
PAKISTAN
OMAN
YEMEN
IRAQIRAN
DJIBOUTI
KUWAIT
UNITEDARABEMIRATES
AFGHANISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
INDIA
TURKEY
BANGLADESH
ISRAEL
JORDAN
SYRIALEBANON
CYPRUS
NEPAL
KYRGYZSTAN
TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
BAHRAINQATAR
UZBEKISTAN
AZERBAIJAN
HUNGARY
POLAND
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
BOSNIA
GREECE
AUSTRIA
SLOVENIA
CZECHREPUBLIC
SLOVAKIA
NORWAY
SWEDEN
FINLAND
UKRAINE
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
BELARUS
CHINA
INDONESIA
PHILIPPINES
MORO
SRI LANKA
MYANMAR
VIETNAMCAMBODIA
LAOS
MALAYSIA
TAIWAN
MALDIVES
HONG KONG
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
RUSSIA
AUSTRALIA
MONGOLIA
JAPAN
PAPUANEW GUINEA
NEW ZEALAND
SOUTH KOREA
GUINEA-BISSAU
SERBIA
MALTA
PALESTINIANTERRITORIES
NORTH KOREA
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
TIMOR-LESTE
SOUTHSUDAN
COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2ND QUARTER 2017
TURKEY
GERMANY
FRANCE
ITALY
SPAIN
UNITED KINGDOM
FINLAND
SWEDEN
DENMARK
PORTUGAL
ICELAND
IRELAND
RUSSIA
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ROMANIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
BULGARIA
HUNGARY
SLOVAKIA
CZECHREPUBLIC
GREECE
ALBANIA
MONTENEGRO
BOSNIA
CROATIA
SERBIA
NETHERLANDS
LUXEMBOURG
ESTONIA
BELARUS
MALTA
CYPRUS
MOLDOVA
BELGIUM
NORWAY
SLOVENIA
MACEDONIA
SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA
160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASSA UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk
• Comprehension of the business environment
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience
BUSINESS DEFAULTING RISK
VERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME
A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D E
DOWNGRADESUPGRADES
• European Commission’s decision to end the disciplinary process for its excessive budget deficit marks a turning point, even if debt burden is a problem.
• After + 1.4% in 2016, the GDP is expected to increase by +2% in 2017 and +1.7% in 2018. Export contribution will remain strong.
A3PORTUGALBJAMAICA
• Country concluded the first review of an IMF stand-by arrangement in April, having achieved its primary fiscal surplus target and completed initial reforms.
• Positive real GDP growth has been recorded in 7 consecutive quarters. Investor confidence is at an all-time high.
A2SPAIN
• The economy could grow faster in 2017 than anticipated (+2.9 %). The recovery is partly linked to strong exports.
• Consumption should remain supported by strong labor market.
BRUSSIA
• Outlook has deteriorated rapidly on account of the worsening political stand-off.
• Increasing tension between the two powers has raised government debt payment risks.
CEL SALVADOR
• The economic growth remains dynamic and will be supported by the implementation of infrastructure projects.
• The more favorable commodity prices will be a tailwind to exports.
• The economic reform move under the new President is likely to be positive for investment and business environment.
CUZBEKISTAN
• Measures imposed by Gulf states against Qatar may exacerbate its external vulnerabilities and could put pressure on its economic growth (reduction of regional trade, corporate profitability damaged) and accounts.
• If the situation worsens, it may destabilize nonresident deposits.
• The country slipped into technical recession in 4Q 2016. The outlook for 2017 is lackluster, in spite of a recovery in the mining sector, as government spending are lower and monetary policy tightens.
• The economic headwinds in South Africa, Namibia’s main commercial partner, are also likely to have a negative impact.
A4B QATARNAMIBIA
• Russian economy recovers from downturn: investment and industrial production increase, retail sales are stable, supported by lower inflation. The corporate profits rose by 5% yoy in Q1 2017, especially in mining and quarrying, electricity gas steam and real estate.
A2
B
A3
B
C
A4
C
BA4
C
E
A2
A3
