AutoSectorUpdate_August2013

7/30/2019 AutoSectorUpdate_August2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Automobile manufacturers continued reporting poor sales as the demand

environment remains extremely weak due to the slowdown in economic activity and

increasing fuel prices which have dampened consumer sentiments. The slowdown is

now prominent across all the segments (ex. tractors) which has resulted in a sharp

fall in volumes across the commercial vehicle (CV), passenger vehicle (PV) and

two-wheeler (2W) segments. However, the tractor segment continued to grow led

by better monsoon although at a rate lower than that registered in 1QFY2014.

Among the stocks in our coverage universe, only Maruti Suzuki recorded a

better-than-expected sales performance which was driven by a strong growth in

exports. Moving into the festival season, we expect a relatively better performance

in September and October as 2W and PV manufacturers would build-up inventoryin anticipation of the festival demand. We however expect CV sales to continue

reporting subdued performance.

Tata Motors (TTMT) continued its poor sales performance as the commercial (CV)and passenger vehicle (PV) volumes maintained the downward trajectory following

weak consumer demand and slowdown in industrial activity. Total volumes posted

a significant decline of 30.9% yoy (3.6% mom) with the CV and PV segments

registering a fall of 24% (7.3% mom) and 45.5% yoy (up 9.2% mom) respectively.

Ashok Leyland (AL) witnessed a steep decline of 18.3% mom in its total sales, led bythe weak demand environment amidst slowdown in economic activity. While MHCV

sales posted a decline of 21.1% mom; Dost sales too declined by 11.3% mom

during the month.

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) registered a better-than-expected volume growth of 4.8%mom driven by a strong 38.6% mom growth in exports. Domestic volumes though

grew modestly by 1.2% mom and were led by a strong 25.4% mom growth in the

compact segment. On a yoy basis, total sales registered a growth of 61.2%,

primarily due to the low base of last year. The companys sales in August 2012

were adversely impacted due to labor problems at the Manesar plant which had

led to temporary shutdown in production.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) continued reporting weak sales due to poorperformance of the automotive segment. The performance has been impacted by

demand slowdown, rising competition and also due to increase in excise duty,

which has affected the company's PV models the most. Total volumes declinedsharply by 11.9% yoy (6.3% mom) as the automotive segment fell by a significant

17.3% yoy (up 2.2% mom). The tractor sales too came in lower-than-expected,

down 23.3% mom as domestic sales declined by 23.8% mom during the month.

Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Two-wheeler sales continued to remain weak;however Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) and TVS Motor (TVSL) posted a growth during the

month mainly due to the low base of last year. Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) recorded anin-line volume growth of 11% mom led by a 12.9% mom growth in motorcycle

sales primarily driven by exports. Total exports surged sharply by 31% mom during

the month. The company intends to launch new variants of the Discover around the

festival season to boost sales. HMCL registered lower-than-expected sales (down5.7% mom, but up 3.6% yoy) as volumes continue to be impacted by slowdown in

motorcycle demand and higher competition from Honda. TVSL posted an in-lineperformance with total sales posting a growth of 1.2% mom (flat yoy) led by a

strong growth in the motorcycle and three wheeler segments. Exports too continued

its strong momentum during the month.

Automobile SectorEyeing the festival season

Monthly Update | August 2013

September 3, 2013

Yaresh Kothari+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844

[email protected]


2/10

Auto Sector Update | August 2013

September 3, 2013 2

Tata Motors

Tata Motors continued its poor sales performance as the commercial (CV) andpassenger vehicle (PV) volumes maintained the downward trajectory following

weak consumer demand and slowdown in industrial activity.

Total volumes posted a significant decline of 30.9% yoy (3.6% mom) to49,611 units with CV and PV segments registering a fall of 24% (7.3% mom)

and 45.5% yoy (up 9.2% mom) respectively.

Within the CV space, MHCV and LCV segments witnessed a decline of 40.1%and 16.5% yoy respectively. In the PV segment, UV and PC sales witnessed a

decline of 35.9% and 48% yoy respectively.

Exports however posted a growth of 11.9% yoy (14.4% mom) during themonth.

Exhibit 1:Tata Motors Sales trendAug-13 Aug-12 chg yoy Jul-13 chg mom YTD FY14 YTD FY13 % yoy

MHCV 9,297 15,515 (40.1) 11,025 (15.7) 53,319 66,307 (19.6)

LCV 27,735 33,230 (16.5) 28,921 (4.1) 140,156 155,655 (10.0)

Total CV 37,032 48,745 (24.0) 39,946 (7.3) 193,475 221,962 (12.8)UV 3,018 4,707 (35.9) 2,352 28.3 12,586 21,050 (40.2)

Passenger cars 9,561 18,374 (48.0) 9,170 4.3 48,190 91,079 (47.1)

Total PV 12,579 23,081 (45.5) 11,522 9.2 60,776 112,129 (45.8)Total sales 49,611 71,826 (30.9) 51,468 (3.6) 254,251 334,091 (23.9)Domestic (incl. above) 44,717 67,453 (33.7) 47,191 (5.2) 233,645 311,783 (25.1)Exports (incl. above) 4,894 4,373 11.9 4,277 14.4 20,606 22,308 (7.6)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:CV segment Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 3:PV segment Monthly sales trend


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Sales continue to remain weak across

the CV and PV segments led by weak

demand


3/10


September 3, 2013 3

Ashok Leyland

Ashok Leyland (AL) witnessed a steep decline of 18.3% mom in its total salesto 7,139 units due to a weak demand environment amidst slowdown in

economic activity.

While MHCV sales posted a decline of 21.1% mom; Dost sales too posted adecline of 11.3% mom during the month.

On a yoy basis too, total sales declined by 24.3% with MHCV and Dost salesregistering a decline of 25.1% and 22.4% yoy respectively.

Exhibit 4:Ashok Leyland Sales trendAug-13 Aug-12 chg yoy Jul-13 chg mom YTD FY14 YTD FY13 % yoy

CV (ex. Dost) 4,939 6,596 (25.1) 6,259 (21.1) 26,095 33,915 (23.1)

Dost 2,200 2,836 (22.4) 2,480 (11.3) 11,504 12,887 (10.7)Total sales 7,139 9,432 (24.3) 8,739 (18.3) 37,599 46,802 (19.7)Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5:CV segment Monthly sales trend


Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) registered a better-than-expected volume growth of 4.8%mom to 87,323 units driven by a strong 38.6% mom growth in exports. The

domestic volumes though grew modestly by 1.2% mom and were led by a

strong 25.4% mom growth in the compact segment.

On a yoy basis, total sales registered a growth of 61.2% yoy primarily due tothe low base of last year. The companys sales in August 2012 were impacted

due to labor problems at the Manesar plant which had led to a temporary

shutdown in production.

The companys UV sales have slowed down considerably over the last fewmonths due to increasing competition from Renault and Ford and also due to

the slowdown in demand for diesel vehicles post the recent hike in fuel prices.

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Weak sales continued due to slowdown

in economic activity

MSIL posted better-than-expected sales

driven by exports


4/10


September 3, 2013 4

Exhibit 6:Maruti Suzuki Sales trendAug-13 Aug-12 chg yoy Jul-13 chg mom YTD FY14 YTD FY13 % yoy

A: Mini: M800, A-Star, Alto, WagonR 32,019 22,062 45.1 33,587 (4.7) 163,274 123,811 31.9

A: Compact: Swift, Estilo, Ritz 17,409 6,059 187.3 13,882 25.4 90,969 88,745 2.5A: Super Compact: Dzire 13,723 3,085 344.8 15,249 (10.0) 78,231 58,371 34.0

A: Midsize: SX4 348 447 (22.1) 322 8.1 2,088 2,126 (1.8)

A: Executive: Kizashi - - - - - - 23 -

Total passenger cars 63,499 31,653 100.6 63,040 0.7 334,562 273,076 22.5B: UV - Gypsy, Vitara, Ertiga 4,563 6,883 (33.7) 4,562 0.0 23,747 26,259 (9.6)

C: Vans - Omni, Versa, Eeco 7,956 11,593 (31.4) 7,543 5.5 38,200 34,953 9.3

Total passenger vehicles - domestic 76,018 50,129 51.6 75,145 1.2 396,509 334,288 18.6Total passenger vehicles - exports 11,305 4,025 180.9 8,154 38.6 40,547 43,842 (7.5)

Total sales (domestic + exports) 87,323 54,154 61.2 83,299 4.8 437,056 378,130 15.6Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 7:Total volumes - Monthly sales trend


Mahindra & Mahindra

Mahindra & Mahindra registered lower-than-expected sales due to the poorperformance of the automotive segment, which has been impacted due to

demand slowdown, rising competition and also due to increase in excise dutywhich has affected the company's products the most. Total volumes declined

sharply by 11.9% yoy (6.3% mom) to 52,055 units as the automotive segment

fell by a significant 17.3% yoy (up 2.2% mom).

The automotive segment registered a weak performance across the sub-segmentswith PV sales (down 27.5% yoy) being the most impacted. The four-wheeler pick-

up and three-wheeler sales too witnessed a decline of 3.8% and 14.2% yoy

respectively. Automotive exports also declined by 9% yoy during the month.

Meanwhile, tractor sales came in lower-than-expected at 14,158 units, down 23.3%mom as domestic sales declined by 23.8% mom during the month. On a yoy basis

though, tractor sales grew by 7% yoy led by a 9.3% yoy growth in domestic sales

driven by good monsoon and improved prospects for the kharif crop.

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MMs automotive sales continue to

witness a sharp decline due to demand

slowdown and increasing competition;tractor sales too came in lower-than-

expected


5/10


September 3, 2013 5

Exhibit 8:Mahindra and Mahindra Sales trendAug-13 Aug-12 chg yoy Jul-13 chg mom YTD FY14 YTD FY13 % yoy

Passenger vehicles 15,821 21,831 (27.5) 15,530 1.9 91,576 105,342 (13.1)

4W pick-up 13,718 14,267 (3.8) 13,740 (0.2) 70,481 68,366 3.1Three-wheelers 5,149 6,004 (14.2) 4,490 14.7 22,006 24,968 (11.9)

MTBL 471 724 (34.9) 730 (35.5) 3,800 5,133 (26.0)

Total domestic 35,159 42,826 (17.9) 34,490 1.9 187,863 203,809 (7.8)Exports 2,738 3,010 (9.0) 2,606 5.1 10,115 15,111 (33.1)

Total automotive 37,897 45,836 (17.3) 37,096 2.2 197,978 218,920 (9.6)Tractors - domestic 13,543 12,394 9.3 17,771 (23.8) 102,704 84,450 21.6

Tractors - exports 615 840 (26.8) 698 (11.9) 4,500 4,886 (7.9)

Total - tractors 14,158 13,234 7.0 18,469 (23.3) 107,204 89,336 20.0Total sales 52,055 59,070 (11.9) 55,565 (6.3) 305,182 308,256 (1.0)


Exhibit 9:PV segment Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 10:Tractor segment Monthly sales trend


Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto recorded an in-line volume growth of 11% mom to 312,188 unitsled by a 12.9% mom growth in motorcycle sales primarily driven by exports.

Total exports surged sharply by 31% mom during the month. Three-wheeler

(3W) sales however declined 2.6% mom as they continued to be impacted dueto the slowdown in Egypt. Domestic sales too declined by 1.9% mom due to

weak demand for motorcycles.

On a yoy basis, total sales posted a decline of 9.5% yoy following a21.2% decline in domestic volumes. Exports however registered a growth of

9.6% yoy.

The company has launched new 3Ws in an attempt to progressively replacethe entire portfolio over the next 3-4 months. Further, the company also

intends to launch new variants of the Discover around the festival season.

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BJAUT reported poor volumes on

account of weakness in the domestic

motorcycle segment


6/10


September 3, 2013 6

Exhibit 11:Bajaj Auto Sales trendAug-13 Aug-12 chg yoy Jul-13 chg mom YTD FY14 YTD FY13 % yoy

Motorcycles 278,583 304,352 (8.5) 246,828 12.9 1,385,562 1,595,833 (13.2)

Three-wheelers 33,605 40,554 (17.1) 34,499 (2.6) 187,228 172,194 8.7Total sales 312,188 344,906 (9.5) 281,327 11.0 1,572,790 1,768,027 (11.0)Domestic (incl. above) 168,028 213,344 (21.2) 171,304 (1.9) 956,044 1,095,319 (12.7)

Exports (incl. above) 144,160 131,562 9.6 110,023 31.0 616,746 672,708 (8.3)


Exhibit 12:Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 13:3W segment Monthly sales trend


Hero MotoCorp

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) registered lower-than-expected sales as volumescontinued to be impacted by slowdown in motorcycle demand and higher

competition from Honda. Its overall sales declined 5.7% mom to 459,996

units. However, on a yoy basis, sales grew by 3.6% primarily due to the base

effect.

On the exports front, the company has forayed into newer geographies likeGuatemala, Kenya, El Salvador, Honduras and Ivory Coast. The company is

also targeting to enter countries within Latin America and Africa.

Going ahead, the company expects better monsoons to revive growth duringthe festival season.

Exhibit 14:Hero MotoCorp Sales trendAug-13 Aug-12 chg yoy Jul-13 chg mom YTD FY14 YTD FY13 % yoy

Total sales 459,996 443,801 3.6 487,545 (5.7) 2,506,544 2,568,308 (2.4)


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HMCL registered lower-than-expected

sales due to weak domestic demand


7/10


September 3, 2013 7

Exhibit 15:HMCL Monthly sales trend


TVS Motor

TVS Motor (TVSL) reported in-line performance with total sales posting a 1.2%mom (flat yoy) growth to 155,532 units. The performance was led by a strong

growth in the motorcycle and three-wheeler segments which recorded a

growth of 5.9% mom (14.2% yoy) and 0.8% mom (80.8% yoy) respectively.

The exports performance too remained strong registering a growth of 4.9%mom (52.9% yoy) driven by robust two-wheeler and 3W sales. The

Management expects export volumes to touch a monthly run-rate of 28,000-30,000 units within the next six months.

The scooter and moped segments however, continued their subduedperformance led by weak demand and increasing competition. While scooter

sales declined by 1.1% mom (4.5% yoy); moped sales witnessed a 2.3% mom

(13.9% yoy) decline during the month.

Exhibit 16:TVS Motor Sales trendAug-13 Aug-12 chg yoy Jul-13 chg mom YTD FY14 YTD FY13 % yoy

Motorcycles 61,313 53,673 14.2 57,886 5.9 312,669 300,402 4.1

Scooters 36,478 38,193 (4.5) 36,900 (1.1) 175,501 191,920 (8.6)Mopeds 50,678 58,874 (13.9) 51,885 (2.3) 284,169 326,453 (13.0)

Total two-wheelers 148,469 150,740 (1.5) 146,671 1.2 772,339 818,775 (5.7)Three-wheelers 7,063 3,907 80.8 7,005 0.8 31,363 16,287 92.6

Total sales 155,532 154,647 0.6 153,676 1.2 803,702 835,062 (3.8)Domestic (incl. above) 128,107 136,713 (6.3) 127,531 0.5 677,978 733,147 (7.5)

Exports (incl. above) 27,425 17,934 52.9 26,145 4.9 125,724 101,915 23.4


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TVSL registered in-line volumes driven

by 3Ws and exports


8/10


September 3, 2013 8

Exhibit 17:Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend


Exhibit 18:Scooter segment Monthly sales trend


Outlook

While the near term environment continues to remain challenging for the

automotive sector, we believe the long-term structural growth drivers for the

industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban

consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global

players and easy availability of finance will remain intact. We continue to prefer

stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets

and command superior pricing power. We maintain our positive stance on AshokLeyland, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors.

Exhibit 19:Relative valuation and recommendationCompanies Reco. CMP(`) TP(`)

Sales (` cr) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) FY13-15EEPS CAGR (%)Y14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15EAL Buy 12 18 12,945 15,049 71.8 8.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 9.1 5.8 3.6 56.7

BJAUT Accumulate 1,854 2,115 22,042 25,399 15.3 13.2 5.4 4.3 39.4 36.6 10.5 8.7 15.8

HMCL Accumulate 2,027 2,162 25,662 28,489 17.5 13.1 6.8 5.3 42.3 45.7 9.0 8.0 20.7

MSIL Buy 1,299 1,571 45,877 52,733 14.0 12.4 1.9 1.6 14.1 14.0 6.1 5.0 15.0

MM Buy 767 1,011 42,318 48,067 13.1 11.4 2.6 2.2 21.6 21.1 6.7 5.6 10.8

TTMT* Buy 300 355 228,329 249,096 8.0 7.3 2.0 1.6 27.8 23.8 3.7 3.3 11.8

TVSL Buy 31 36 7,659 8,527 6.2 5.2 1.1 0.9 18.2 18.8 2.0 1.2 16.8

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on September 2, 2013; *Consolidated financials

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9/10


September 3, 2013 9

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership Angel and its Group companies Angel and its Group companies' Broking relationshipof the stock ownership of the stock Directors ownership of the stock with company covered

Ashok Leyland No No No No

Tata Motors No No No No

Maruti Suzuki No No No No

Mahindra & Mahindra No No No No

Bajaj Auto No No No No

Hero MotoCorp No No No No

TVS Motor No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)


10/10


September 3, 2013 10

6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai- 400 093. Tel: (022) 39357800

Research Team

Fundamental:Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected]

Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected]

Bhavesh Chauhan Sr. Analyst (Metals & Mining) [email protected]

Viral Shah Sr. Analyst (Infrastructure) [email protected]

V Srinivasan Analyst (Cement, FMCG) [email protected]

Yaresh Kothari Analyst (Automobile) [email protected]

Ankita Somani Analyst (IT, Telecom) [email protected]

Sourabh Taparia Analyst (Banking) [email protected]

Bhupali Gursale Economist [email protected]

Vinay Rachh Research Associate [email protected]

Amit Patil Research Associate [email protected]

Twinkle Gosar Research Associate [email protected]

Tejashwini Kumari Research Associate [email protected]

Akshay Narang Research Associate [email protected]

Harshal Patkar Research Associate [email protected]

Nishant Sharma Research Associate [email protected]

Technicals:

Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]

Sameet Chavan Technical Analyst [email protected]

Sacchitanand Uttekar Technical Analyst [email protected]

Derivatives:

Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected]

Institutional Sales Team:

Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected]

Gaurang Tisani Dealer [email protected]

Akshay Shah Sr. Executive [email protected]

Production Team:

Tejas Vahalia Research Editor [email protected]

Dilip Patel Production Incharge [email protected]

CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 93. Tel: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Pvt. Ltd: BSE Cash: INB010996539 / BSE F&O: INF010996539, CDSL Regn. No.: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 2004, PMS Regn. Code: PM/INP000001546, NSE Cash: INB231279838 /NSE F&O: INF231279838 / NSE Currency: INE231279838, MCX Stock Exchange Ltd: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500. Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd.: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn. No.: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn. No.: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302.

AutoSectorUpdate_August2013

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