03_el Nino Update
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Transcript of 03_el Nino Update
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June 2014
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El Nio has 70% chance of development
during June-July-August.
As of June, 2014
Season La Nia Neutral El Nio
MJJ 2014 ~0% 39% 61%JJA 2014 1% 30% 69%
JAS 2014 1% 26% 73%
ASO 2014 1% 22% 77%
SON 2014 1% 19% 80%
OND 2014 1% 17% 82%
NDJ 2014 1% 17% 82%
DJF 2014 2% 18% 80%
JFM 2015 2% 22% 76%
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Month SST(C) SSTA (C)
2014 March 26.99 -0.22
2014 April 28.01 0.24
2014 May 28.30 0.45
AVERAGE Mar-April-May 0.2C SSTA
ACTUAL MONTHLY SST AND SST ANOMALY
Recent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea
Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) over Nino 3.4
Region
Weekly Anomaly:
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July and August : Near to above
normal rainfall and portions with
below normal in some parts of
the country
WHAT TO EXPECT: FORECAST RAINFALLJULY 2014
AUGUST 2014
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
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September : near to above
normal rainfall in most parts of
Western Luzon includingMindanao except Palawan;
below to way below normal in
eastern section of Luzon and
Visayas
October: below to way below
normal rainfall in most parts of
the country
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
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November and December:
- way below to below normalrainfall in most parts of the
country
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST
MONTH FORECAST
June 2 or 3
July 3 or 4
August 3 or 4
September 2 or 3
October 2 or 3
November 2 or 3
December 1 or 2
Average 15 to 18
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FORECAST RAINFALL AT Monitored Dams in Luzon (JuneDec. 2014)
mm and Percent Normal (%)
STATIONS MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 463.0 128.1 635.9 89.6 991.3 121.7 256.3 122.5 113.8 31.1 94.0 17.0 130.7 20.5
ANGATDAM 280.0 119.7 569.8 142.2 452.4 122.6 683.8 134.1 84.1 28.0 64.9 11.8 17.2 2.7
APUNAN 454.5 130.3 605.6 88.8 889.6 112.9 249.5 117.7 110.3 32.9 107.1 19.4 149.1 23.4
BADAYAN 492.4 146.9 629.0 96.0 801.4 105.8 231.8 117.9 104.0 37.2 106.9 19.4 128.0 20.1
BINGADAM 465.9 129.6 651.5 92.5 1042.5 130.5 262.3 121.8 113.3 29.1 90.5 16.4 128.9 20.2
BOBOK 452.1 128.8 614.2 87.7 963.1 120.3 261.3 116.1 112.7 31.2 105.4 19.1 157.9 24.8
BUNGA 342.4 126.7 484.1 103.2 619.7 119.6 334.9 87.6 155.3 49.3 134.8 24.4 290.6 45.6
BUYOC 376.2 139.1 408.1 88.9 621.1 117.9 275.7 86.7 111.2 35.6 166.6 30.2 281.0 44.1
DANTOR 386.0 153.6 413.0 97.3 595.7 122.4 250.0 82.8 106.6 35.8 162.7 29.5 215.3 33.8
DUMAYUP 318.2 121.2 365.0 85.1 563.4 117.6 315.1 83.2 127.7 41.2 185.7 33.7 390.5 61.3
HALONG 421.7 151.8 483.9 93.9 674.1 112.4 240.7 97.1 104.3 33.6 140.6 25.5 181.4 28.5
IPODAM 279.7 116.7 628.0 151.7 423.1 110.3 678.2 144.3 88.1 31.8 77.2 14.0 3.6 0.6
MAGATDAM 296.4 147.7 272.9 94.6 440.8 135.8 305.6 67.3 123.7 45.3 210.2 38.1 388.4 61.0
MAPUTI 258.2 118.3 487.5 137.7 418.0 135.9 593.1 110.6 459.0 139.1 97.4 17.7 113.8 17.9
MARIKIT 262.0 107.5 410.3 115.5 355.7 109.7 408.0 80.3 299.5 96.0 178.4 32.3 463.6 72.8
MATULID 259.0 114.1 485.8 129.5 712.3 215.9 644.2 124.4 217.1 65.7 70.7 12.8 48.7 7.7
N ORZ AGA RA Y 285. 3 120.2 657.6 159.7 390.5 102.2 663.3 140.8 95.2 35.0 82.4 14.9 10.2 1.6
PADALIS 287.4 110.6 433.6 110.4 451.6 113.9 379.6 81.3 229.8 82.5 164.0 29.7 410.4 64.5
PANTABANGAN DAM 316.9 132.4 455.4 117.4 433.7 110.5 381.4 79.3 230.3 86.5 138.5 25.1 312.1 49.0
SANROQUEDAM 456.0 131.7 676.6 112.3 920.5 131.2 286.2 111.6 112.2 31.6 82.1 14.9 125.9 19.8
S TO DO MI NGO 349. 7 122.0 438.3 80.8 695.4 115.2 303.1 92.9 127.0 37.7 157.4 28.5 321.5 50.5
TALAGUIO 267.4 120.5 540.8 146.6 453.1 137.2 637.2 121.7 282.1 89.7 81.9 14.8 55.2 8.7
DECEMBERJUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
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CATCHMENT MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
Abra RB 420.3 151.8 631.2 133.8 661.3 129.7 216.6 113.5 123.2 51.7 84.0 15.2 57.0 8.9
Abul ug RB 205.3 96.3 311.1 113.0 410.2 120.4 262.6 102.0 105.7 42.2 220.0 39.9 322.5 50.7
Agno RB 476.6 143.5 807.5 155.7 787.9 133.9 288.6 121.5 118.3 48.8 63.6 11.5 99.4 15.6
Agus RB 300.5 131.7 197.7 89.2 460.7 250.9 331.7 120.1 139.6 72.2 61.0 11.1 93.4 14.7
Agusan RB 263.7 132.6 204.8 104.4 152.0 88.0 373.2 126.5 198.6 89.9 85.5 15.5 106.3 16.7
Bicol RB 228.8 119.5 292.2 113.7 262.2 126.7 220.4 114.5 127.9 41.0 220.9 40.0 19.2 3.0Buayan-Malungon 129.9 77.6 141.1 98.0 115.7 88.9 300.5 93.9 142.9 97.5 335.1 60.7 181.8 28.6
Bued RB 488.4 136.1 754.7 126.0 874.3 128.1 173.7 83.9 120.4 39.6 590.4 107.0 614.1 96.5
Cagayan de Oro 325.4 138.2 237.6 100.8 406.6 209.4 101.3 73.7 206.2 99.8 92.4 16.8 143.7 22.6
Cagayan RB 275.2 134.7 292.4 100.4 436.1 141.5 298.4 72.0 184.6 59.4 240.6 43.6 429.9 67.5
Cotabato RB 220.6 96.9 213.8 110.7 568.0 362.9 318.6 130.5 213.0 113.8 193.0 35.0 19.1 3.0
Davao RB 245.6 114.1 248.7 167.0 277.6 194.6 309.9 136.8 281.6 156.0 138.7 25.1 72.2 11.3
Laoag RB 260.7 100.7 485.7 127.3 602.3 127.6 274.5 98.0 126.6 69.2 72.1 13.1 76.9 12.1
Pampanga RB 347.5 139.0 653.1 165.5 454.5 118.2 317.1 101.1 207.9 81.3 226.7 41.1 68.5 10.8Pasig-Laguna RB 209.0 82.5 474.8 128.9 588.6 175.6 447.1 106.8 242.5 77.1 122.8 22.3 144.1 22.6
Sinocalan RB 494.4 143.6 817.0 159.9 720.0 126.9 516.0 124.0 124.3 53.4 107.3 19.5 51.6 8.1
Tagoloan River 353.0 156.2 252.1 97.2 190.0 83.3 383.3 128.4 248.6 96.6 210.3 38.1 23.2 3.6
Tagum-Libuganon 235.2 112.4 208.8 135.6 179.4 120.0 273.3 129.0 165.1 82.9 181.7 32.9 145.9 22.9
DECEMBERJUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
FORECAST RAINFALL AT MAJOR RIVER BASINS
(JuneDec. 2014)
mm and Percent Normal (%)
