» Technologie « LPKF Laser & Electronics AG WKN: 645000 ISIN: … · 2019. 11. 27. · Pfeiffer...

34
Page 1 of 34 » Technologie « » Initial Coverage « In In cooperation with LPKF Laser & Electronics AG WKN: 645000 | ISIN: DE0006450000 | Bloomberg: LPK GY New technologies lift(ed) the stock price YTD We initiate our coverage of LPKF Laser & Electronics AG (LPK) with a HOLD recommendation and a target price of EUR 13.00, currently 5.5% below yesterday’s closing price. In our best-case scenario, the market pays the historical premium on the multiples. In this case, the fair value could rise to EUR 17. Laser specialist for the processing of micro materials: LPKF is a leading international technology company for laser production processes. Its global customers include consumer electronics, research and education, thin-film solar, automotive, semiconductor manufacturers and medicine technology. Innovations focus in miniaturization: LPKF's expertise consists in the continuous development of leading laser technologies, which together with the material and process understanding used by customers lead to new solutions and applications to process micro components with high precision, speed and material-saving processes. 9M-19 continues positive revenue and earnings trend: LPKF was able to further increase sales in 9M-2019 again. Overall, sales in 9M-2019 increased by +22.6% yoy to EUR 107.5m. EBIT improved significantly, rising by +206.7% yoy to EUR 15.3m in 9M (14.2% EBIT margin). In addition to the operating result, the working capital improvement lifted the equity ratio from 60.4% (30.09.2018) to 68.5%. Guidance increased, FMR in the mid-range: Management raised its sales guidance of EUR 130-135m to EUR 135-140m at the Capital Markets Day (12.09.) with an EBIT margin of 12-14% (previously: 8-12%) and confirmed this guidance with the 9M report. Our FMR expectations for sales and EBIT are EUR 138.3m (+12.7% YoY) and EUR 18.4m (+170% YoY, 13.3% margin). HOLD, target price EUR 13.00: our value is based on a multiple model. The TP of EUR 13.00 corresponds to a PE 2020e of 21.3x and 2021e of 18.1x. Current risks: i/ worsening economic climate; ii/ project postponements by large customers; iii/ high growth expectations already priced by the market. Published: 22.11.2019 HOLD Previously: - Target price EUR 13.00 (-) Share Price* EUR 13.75 (-5.5%) * Last XETRA Closing Price Initial 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 138.3 151.0 162.4 EBIT 18.4 21.9 25.6 EPS 0.51 0.61 0.72 Basic Share Data Number of Shares (million) 24.50 Free Float (in %) 71% Market Cap (in EURm) 337 Trading volume(Ø) 0.032 High (EUR, 52 weeks) 15.40 Low (EUR, 52 weeks) 5.10 Shareholder Jörg Bantleon 29.0% Luxempart Pipe SARL (Luxunion S.A.) 5.0% Sicav Lazard Small Caps EUR 3.0% Corporate Calendar FY 2019 24 March 2020 Q1 2020 05 May 2020 Analyst Felix Lutz Analyst [email protected] +49 (0) 69 - 920 389 14 Contact FMR Frankfurt Main Research AG Schillerstrasse 16 60313 Frankfurt am Main Germany +49 (0) 69 - 920 389 10 www.fmr-research.de Source: Factset Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 LPKF Laser & Electronics AG Germany SDAX Germany CDAX in EURm (2018-21e) 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e Sales 10.6% 91.1 102.1 120.0 138.3 151.0 162.4 EBITDA 31.9% 1.3 11.6 14.9 25.9 29.7 34.2 Margin 1.4% 11.4% 12.4% 18.7% 19.7% 21.0% EBIT 55.4% -6.8 4.0 6.8 18.4 21.8 25.6 Margin -7.4% 3.9% 5.7% 13.3% 14.4% 15.8% Net income 29.8% -8.8 1.2 8.0 12.5 14.9 17.6 EPS 29.8% -0.40 0.05 0.33 0.51 0.61 0.72 Dividend per share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EV/Sales 2.2 2.3 1.4 2.8 2.7 2.6 EV/EBITDA -29.5 58.6 24.6 21.0 18.7 16.7 P/E -17.5 180.9 16.8 26.9 22.6 19.2 Net debt/ EBITDA 28.9 1.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.2 Source: LPKF AG,FMR

Transcript of » Technologie « LPKF Laser & Electronics AG WKN: 645000 ISIN: … · 2019. 11. 27. · Pfeiffer...

  • Page 1 of 34

    » Technologie «

    » In

    itia

    l C

    ove

    rag

    e «

    In

    In cooperation with

    In Kooperation mit

    LPKF Laser & Electronics AG WKN: 645000 | ISIN: DE0006450000 | Bloomberg: LPK GY

    New technologies lift(ed) the stock price YTD We initiate our coverage of LPKF Laser & Electronics AG (LPK) with a HOLD

    recommendation and a target price of EUR 13.00, currently 5.5% below yesterday’s

    closing price. In our best-case scenario, the market pays the historical premium on the

    multiples. In this case, the fair value could rise to EUR 17.

    Laser specialist for the processing of micro materials: LPKF is a leading international technology company for laser production processes. Its global customers include consumer electronics, research and education, thin-film solar, automotive, semiconductor manufacturers and medicine technology.

    Innovations focus in miniaturization: LPKF's expertise consists in the continuous

    development of leading laser technologies, which together with the material and

    process understanding used by customers lead to new solutions and applications

    to process micro components with high precision, speed and material-saving

    processes.

    9M-19 continues positive revenue and earnings trend: LPKF was able to further

    increase sales in 9M-2019 again. Overall, sales in 9M-2019 increased by +22.6% yoy

    to EUR 107.5m. EBIT improved significantly, rising by +206.7% yoy to EUR 15.3m in

    9M (14.2% EBIT margin). In addition to the operating result, the working capital

    improvement lifted the equity ratio from 60.4% (30.09.2018) to 68.5%.

    Guidance increased, FMR in the mid-range: Management raised its sales guidance

    of EUR 130-135m to EUR 135-140m at the Capital Markets Day (12.09.) with an EBIT

    margin of 12-14% (previously: 8-12%) and confirmed this guidance with the 9M

    report. Our FMR expectations for sales and EBIT are EUR 138.3m (+12.7% YoY) and

    EUR 18.4m (+170% YoY, 13.3% margin).

    HOLD, target price EUR 13.00: our value is based on a multiple model. The TP of

    EUR 13.00 corresponds to a PE 2020e of 21.3x and 2021e of 18.1x.

    Current risks: i/ worsening economic climate; ii/ project postponements by large

    customers; iii/ high growth expectations already priced by the market.

    Published: 22.11.2019

    HOLD Previously: -

    Target price EUR 13.00 (-) Share Price* EUR 13.75 (-5.5%)

    * Last XETRA Closing Price

    Initial 2019e 2020e 2021e

    Sales 138.3 151.0 162.4

    EBIT 18.4 21.9 25.6

    EPS 0.51 0.61 0.72

    Basic Share Data

    Number of Shares (million) 24.50 Free Float (in %) 71% Market Cap (in EURm) 337 Trading volume(Ø) 0.032

    High (EUR, 52 weeks) 15.40 Low (EUR, 52 weeks) 5.10

    Shareholder

    Jörg Bantleon 29.0%

    Luxempart Pipe SARL (Luxunion S.A.) 5.0%

    Sicav Lazard Small Caps EUR 3.0%

    Corporate Calendar

    FY 2019 24 March 2020

    Q1 2020 05 May 2020

    Analyst

    Felix Lutz

    Analyst

    [email protected]

    +49 (0) 69 - 920 389 14

    Contact

    FMR Frankfurt Main Research AG

    Schillerstrasse 16

    60313 Frankfurt am Main

    Germany

    +49 (0) 69 - 920 389 10

    www.fmr-research.de

    Source: Factset

    Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19

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    LPKF Laser & Electronics AG Germany SDAX Germany CDAX

    in EURm (2018-21e) 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e

    Sales 10.6% 91.1 102.1 120.0 138.3 151.0 162.4

    EBITDA 31.9% 1.3 11.6 14.9 25.9 29.7 34.2

    Margin 1.4% 11.4% 12.4% 18.7% 19.7% 21.0%

    EBIT 55.4% -6.8 4.0 6.8 18.4 21.8 25.6

    Margin -7.4% 3.9% 5.7% 13.3% 14.4% 15.8%

    Net income 29.8% -8.8 1.2 8.0 12.5 14.9 17.6

    EPS 29.8% -0.40 0.05 0.33 0.51 0.61 0.72

    Dividend per share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

    EV/Sales 2.2 2.3 1.4 2.8 2.7 2.6

    EV/EBITDA -29.5 58.6 24.6 21.0 18.7 16.7

    P/E -17.5 180.9 16.8 26.9 22.6 19.2

    Net debt/ EBITDA 28.9 1.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.2

    Source: LPKF AG,FMR

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

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    Contents:

    Investment Thesis ................................................................................................................................................................... 3

    SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

    Rating ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 5

    Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................. 5

    Peer Group-Rating .............................................................................................................................................................. 5

    DCF-Model .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7

    Scenario Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................ 8

    Business Model ..................................................................................................................................................................... 10

    Development-Segment ..................................................................................................................................................... 11

    Welding Segment .............................................................................................................................................................. 12

    Solar Segment ................................................................................................................................................................... 13

    Electronics-Segment ......................................................................................................................................................... 14

    Service and Support .......................................................................................................................................................... 15

    Markets and Technologies .................................................................................................................................................... 16

    Thin-film solar market ...................................................................................................................................................... 16

    Market for printed circuit boards ..................................................................................................................................... 17

    Market for glass wafers .................................................................................................................................................... 18

    Financial Measures ............................................................................................................................................................... 20

    Successful financial year 2018 .......................................................................................................................................... 20

    9M-2019............................................................................................................................................................................ 20

    Outlook full year 2019e .................................................................................................................................................... 20

    Medium-term Outlook of the Segments .......................................................................................................................... 21

    Balance Sheet Adjusted .................................................................................................................................................... 25

    Dividend Policy.................................................................................................................................................................. 26

    Company Profile ................................................................................................................................................................... 27

    Company History .............................................................................................................................................................. 27

    Shareholder ...................................................................................................................................................................... 27

    LPKF Management ............................................................................................................................................................ 28

    Board ................................................................................................................................................................................. 28

    Appendix ............................................................................................................................................................................... 29

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

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    Investment Thesis LPKF Laser & Electronics AG is a leading international specialist in the production of

    laser systems for micromachining. Founded in 1976 and headquartered in Garbsen,

    Switzerland, with its 655 employees worldwide, generated sales of EUR 120m in

    2018. The company has been listed in the Prime Standard of Deutsche Börse since

    1998 (ticker: LPK).

    We start LPKF AG's coverage with a HOLD recommendation and a target price of

    EUR 13.00, which is 5.5% below the closing price (21.11.) of EUR 13.75. We use a

    multiple-model to derive the fair value of LPKF. This corresponds to a PE 2020e of

    21.3x and 2021e of 18.1x.

    The miniaturization in the production of micro components and the necessary

    digitization in the manufacturing process are progressing rapidly and require a

    corresponding adaptation of tools and processes in production. We see LPKF as an

    innovator in laser material processes and products in many (new) application areas

    as well-positioned to take advantage of this situation:

    i/ Through continuous research, LPKF develops technologically advanced (laser)

    processes to create, together with material science expertise, fundamental

    innovations in manufacturing;

    ii/ By working closely with customers and understanding their requirements and

    processes, these innovations can be introduced or existing processes improved;

    iii/ LPKF can offer sales and service through its worldwide subsidiaries and

    continuously open up new markets.

    Due to high growth in the target markets for the LPKF solutions, combined with the

    leading technology, we expect high sales-growth in the coming years (CAGR2018-

    20e: 10.6%).

    Scenario Analysis

    With a sales and margin profile that improves beyond expectations, we expect a

    positive development of the share price towards EUR 17.00, the average value from

    our EV/EBITDA and PE multiple valuation taking into account premiums of 12.3%

    and 8%.

    In our pessimistic scenario, LPKF does not succeed in further improving its sales and

    margins on the level. In this case, we see our EV/Sales FY3 derived value at EUR 11.

    Leading technology company

    for laser systems for

    micromachining

    Rating: HOLD, target price

    EUR 13.00

    Miniaturization to improve

    performance in electronics -

    LPKF leading supporter

    Structurally strong growth in

    the target markets

    Optimistic scenario: EV/Sales

    Multiple at EUR 17

    Pessimistic scenario: Derived

    value at EUR 11

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

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    SWOT Strengths

    Due to the focus of activity in the high-tech sector only conditional dependence on

    cyclical fluctuations

    Diversification into four segments and different industries

    High innovative ability of the company

    Customer proximity

    Speed of innovation

    Solid order backlog

    Advanced technology strengthens LPKF's market position

    On balance, very low debt and high liquidity (unused reserves), as well as high cash

    flow generation

    Weaknesses

    Dependence on two customers (in Solar and Electronics, together 37.5% of sales in

    2018)

    Risks of development in new technologies (quality, supply chain, market

    acceptance)

    High budget required for research and development (10% of sales) not always

    leading to new products

    Opportunities

    Substantial sales potential through newly developed products (LIDE, LTP)

    New application areas of laser technologies

    Development of new customers through the further expansion of sales activities

    Risks

    Investment cycles in the electronics, solar and automotive industries fluctuate

    widely

    Increasing share of the project business in the electronics and solar segments

    reduce the predictability of the business

    Dependence on the economic situation of customers and government budgets

    Lack of highly-qualified employees

    Exchange rate fluctuations due to very high export share, hence, potential price

    disadvantage in Asia

    New products, such as LIDE, must first come into focus and then into the customer's

    production process.

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

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    Rating

    Summary We start coverage on LPKF Laser & Electronics AG (LPKF-DE) with a HOLD rating and

    a multiple-based target price of EUR 13.00, with a closing price of EUR 13.75 on the

    21 November.

    Fair value summary

    Valuation method Fair value per share

    (EUR)

    Peer Group EV/Sales (Average) 12.00

    Peer Group EV/EBITDA (Average) 13.87

    Peer Group PE Multiple (Average) 14.57

    DCF 13.04

    Source: FMR Research

    Peer Group-Rating We compare LPKF with a group of 11 tech companies. There is no player here that

    is also active in all markets served by LPKF while using similar technology.

    We compare the Factset consensus-rating to get a rough overview of where LPKF

    is in comparison. The peer companies have a broad spectrum of market

    capitalization ranging from EUR 39m (Singulus) to EUR 12.8bn (Sartorius).

    Company description of the peer companies

    Coherent Inc Coherent, Inc. designs, manufactures and services lasers and related accessories. The company operates through its OEM Laser Sources (OLS) and Industrial Lasers and Systems (ILS) segments. The ILS segment comprises the Laser Sources, Subsystems and Tools business, which is mainly used for industrial lasers for material processing. The company was founded on May 26 by Eugene Watson in 1966 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.

    Sartorius AG Sartorius AG is an international laboratory and process technology provider for the biotech, pharmaceutical and food industries. It operates through its Bioprocess Solutions and Lab Products and Services business units. The company was founded in 1870 by Florenz Sartorius, Sr. and is headquartered in Goettingen, Germany.

    Pfeiffer Vaccum Technology AG

    Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology AG develops, manufactures and markets components and systems for vacuum generation, measurement and analysis. It operates through the following segments: U.S., Germany, Republic of Korea, Europe, Asia and France. The Company was founded in 1890 by Arthur Pfeiffer and is headquartered in Asslar, Germany.

    Carl Zeiss Meditec AG

    Carl Zeiss Meditec AG is active in the development, manufacture and marketing of medical products. It is active in the fields of ophthalmology and microsurgery. The company was founded on October 4, 1995 and is headquartered in Jena, Germany.

    AIXTRON SE AIXTRON SE supplies deposition equipment to the semiconductor industry. Products include compound semiconductors, silicon semiconductors, organic semiconductors and nanotechnology. The Company was founded in December 1983 by Heinrich Schumann, Holger Jürgensen and Meino Heyen and is headquartered in Herzogenrath, Germany.

    Viscom AG Viscom AG produces, develops and sells automated inspection systems for industrial production. It operates in the following segments: serial products, new products and service. The company's product portfolio includes automated optical inspection and X-ray inspection systems used in

    Target price of EUR 13.00,

    HOLD

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 6 of 34

    industrial electronics manufacturing. Viscom was founded in 1984 by Martin Heuser and Volker Pape and is headquartered in Hanover, Germany.

    SÜSS MicroTec SE

    SUSS MicroTec SE is a holding company engaged in the manufacture and sale of products with microelectromechanical systems and microelectronics. It operates in the following segments: lithography, bonder, photomask accessories and miscellaneous. The company was founded in 1949 by Karl Süss and is headquartered in Garching, Germany.

    Jenoptik AG Jenoptik AG is a holding company which provides products and services for the photonics market. It operates in the following segments: optics and life science; mobility; defense and civil systems. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Jena, Germany.

    Basler AG Basler AG is active in the design, production and sale of industrial cameras. Its products include generators, accessories, software, an embedded vision portfolio and components. The company was founded in 1988 by Norbert Basler and Stefan Berendsen and is headquartered in Ahrensburg, Germany.

    Singulus Technologies AG

    Singulus Technologies AG develops, produces and sells machines and systems in the fields of vacuum coating technology, surface technology and engineering, wet chemistry and thermal processing technologies. Singulus reports under the following segments: Optical Disk, Solar and Semiconductors. The company was founded by Roland Lacher and Reiner Seiler on June 14, 1995 and is headquartered in Kahl am Main, Germany.

    Manz AG Manz AG manufactures electronic components and devices, solar modules and lithium-ion batteries. Manz reports in the following segments: Electronics, solar, energy storage, contract manufacturing and service. Manz was founded in 1987 by Dieter Manz and is headquartered in Reutlingen, Germany.

    Source: Factset

    To calculate fair values for the LPKF share from the multiples, we calculate averages

    and medians of PE, EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA figures. The following table gives an

    overview of the peers and their current Factset consensus multipliers.

    Peers of LPKF and their Factset rating

    Source: Factset, FMR Research

    For our calculations we use the medians and multiply them by our respective

    estimates. We then adjust for excess cash and cash equivalents (EUR 19.6m) and

    financial liabilities (EUR 50.1m) where necessary. The target prices thus obtained

    range from EUR 11.41 (EV/Sales FY3) to EUR 15.53 (EV/EBITDA FY1).

    Name PE FY1 PE FY2 PE FY3 EV/Sales FY1 EV/Sales FY2 EV/Sales FY3EV/EBITDA

    FY1

    EV/EBITDA

    FY2

    EV/EBITDA

    FY3

    Coherent, Inc. 25.7x 16.2x 11.0x 2.4x 2.2x 1.9x 13.0x 8.9x 6.5x

    Manz AG - 24.7x 6.2x 0.7x 0.6x 0.4x 19.9x 7.6x 4.5x

    SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES AG 20.9x 3.6x 2.8x 0.4x 0.3x 0.2x 6.2x 2.4x 2.0x

    Basler AG 53.3x 38.7x 28.7x 3.4x 3.1x 2.7x 19.4x 15.9x 12.7x

    JENOPTIK AG 21.1x 19.9x 18.9x 1.9x 1.9x 1.8x 12.4x 11.7x 11.0x

    SUESS MicroTec SE 27.3x 14.9x 10.5x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 15.9x 8.8x 6.3x

    Viscom AG 19.4x 14.6x 10.3x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 10.1x 8.3x 6.2x

    AIXTRON SE 32.4x 28.0x 21.8x 2.7x 2.5x 2.3x 15.2x 13.0x 10.3x

    Carl Zeiss Meditec AG 53.8x 45.4x 40.4x 6.6x 6.1x 5.6x 31.5x 28.2x 25.9x

    Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology AG 31.7x 25.4x 21.7x 2.4x 2.3x 2.1x 17.2x 14.1x 12.2x

    Sartorius AG 54.1x 46.2x 40.0x 6.9x 6.0x 5.4x 25.5x 21.8x 19.7x

    Peergroup Durchschnitt 34.0x 25.2x 19.3x 2.7x 2.4x 2.2x 16.9x 12.8x 10.7x

    Peergroup Median 29.5x 24.7x 18.9x 2.4x 2.2x 1.9x 15.9x 11.7x 10.3x

    Determination of peer group

    PE, EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA

    multiples

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

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    Multiple valuation of LPKF

    Source: Factset, FMR Research

    For the target price of EUR 13.00 we calculate the following multiples:

    Multiples at EUR 13.00 target price

    2019e 2020e 2021e EV/Sales 2.5 2.3 2.1 EV/EBITDA 13.4 11.7 10.2 EV/EBIT 18.9 15.9 13.6 PE 25.5 21.3 18.1

    Source: FMR Research

    DCF-Model Our discounted cash flow model is based on the following assumptions:

    The weighted average cost of capital (WACC): We set the risk-free rate at 2.0% and

    assume an equity risk premium of 6.0% and a debt risk premium of 3.0%. We have

    set the beta factor to 1.2 and assume that the long-term target equity ratio at

    market values is 80%. With these assumptions, we arrived at a capital cost rate

    (WACC) of 8.06%.

    Phase 1 (2019e-21e): We calculate the Free Cash Flows (FCF) for Phase 1 according

    to our detailed financial projections, which we have described in the Financial

    Section. We expect revenue to increase by 9.2% and 7.5% in 2020e and 2021e,

    respectively, while the EBIT margin improves to 15.8% in 2021e.

    Phase 2 (2022e-28e): Phase 2 covers the years 2022e to 2028e. For this period, we

    anticipate revenue growth with declining growth rates (CAGR2022-28e 4.1%), with

    the EBIT margin seen at 16.0% over the long term.

    Terminal Value: For the calculation of the final value, we set a long-term growth

    rate of 2.0% for free cash flow. Based on our estimates, we arrive at a fair value of

    the company of EUR 348.5m.

    LPKF Laser&ElectronicsEPS

    2019e

    EPS

    2020e

    EPS

    2021e

    Sales

    2019e

    Sales

    2020e

    Sales

    2021e

    EBITDA

    2019e

    EBITDA

    2020e

    EBITDA

    2021e

    0.51 0.61 0.72 138.3 151.0 162.4 25.9 29.7 34.2

    Peergroup Median 29.5x 24.7x 18.9x 2.4x 2.2x 1.9x 15.9x 11.7x 10.3x

    Discount

    Multiple 29.5x 24.7x 18.9x 2.4x 2.2x 1.9x 15.9x 11.7x 10.3x

    Abgeleiteter

    Unternehmenswert335.6 327.9 310.0 410.8 348.8 351.4

    + Kasse 19.6 19.6

    - Finanzschulden -50.1 -50.1

    - Minderheiten 0.0 0.0

    Abgeleitete

    Marktkapitalisierung305.09 297.33 279.44 380.31 318.26 320.84

    Anzahl der Aktien 24.50 24.50 24.50 24.50 24.50 24.50

    Fairer Wert pro Aktie 15.06 15.08 13.55 12.45 12.14 11.41 15.53 12.99 13.10

    WACC: 8,06%

    DCF delivers fair value of

    EUR 13.04 per share

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

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    To this end, we add the cash on hand and deduct the financial liabilities and the

    minority interests at market values, thus achieving a fair value of EUR 319.5m or

    EUR 13.04 per share.

    DCF-MODEL

    Source: FMR Research

    Scenario Analysis Optimistic Scenario

    If LPKF succeeds in substantially increasing its sales growth and profitability, we see

    the possibility that the market will be led by the valuations of the EV/Sales or

    another premium paid to the peers. In our base calculation, we do not consider this

    premium (about 8-12%). In this case, a share price of up to EUR 17 would be

    possible.

    The following chart shows the historical EV/EBITDA and PE trading margins of LPKF

    shares and their peer companies (median values). The average historical discount

    lies in the viewing area at 12.3% or at 7.9%.

    PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3

    in EURm 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E

    Sales 138.3 151.0 162.4 171.6 180.5 186.8 192.4 197.2 202.2 207.2

    Y-o-Y growth 15.3% 9.2% 7.5% 5.7% 5.2% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

    EBIT 18.4 21.8 25.6 27.5 28.9 29.9 30.8 31.5 32.4 33.1

    EBIT margin 13.3% 14.4% 15.8% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%

    Income tax on EBIT -5.4 -6.4 -7.5 -8.1 -8.5 -8.8 -9.1 -9.3 -9.6 -9.8

    Depreciation and amortisation 7.5 7.9 8.6 9.1 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.1

    Change in net working capital 17.8 4.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3

    Net capital expenditure -5.0 -9.0 -5.9 -6.3 -6.6 -9.8 -10.2 -10.4 -10.8 -11.1

    Free cash flow 33.3 18.3 20.1 21.8 22.9 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.5 23.1

    Present values 33.0 16.8 17.0 16.9 16.5 13.8 13.1 12.4 11.7 11.1 186.3

    Present value Phase 1 66.7 Risk free rate 2.00% Target equity ratio 80%

    Present value Phase 2 95.4 Equity risk premium 6.00% Beta 1.2

    Present value Phase 3 186.3 Debt risk premium 3.00% WACC 8.06%

    Total present value 348.5 Tax shield (Phase 3) 30.0% Terminal growth 2.00%

    + Excess cash/Non-operating assets 19.6

    - Financial debt -48.6

    + Minority interests 0.0 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

    Fair value of equity 319.4 7.06% 13.94 14.73 15.67 16.82 18.25

    7.56% 12.84 13.48 14.24 15.14 16.24

    Number of shares (m) 24.5 8.06% 11.90 12.43 13.04 13.76 14.63

    8.56% 11.08 11.52 12.02 12.61 13.31

    Fair value per share (in EUR) 13.04 9.06% 10.36 10.73 11.15 11.64 12.20

    Sensitivity analysis

    Terminal growth rate

    WACC

    With premium on up to

    EUR 17 possible

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 9 of 34

    Historic EV/EBITDA-FY2 and PE-FY2 multiples to peer group

    Source: Factset, FMR Research

    Pessimistic Scenario

    In our pessimistic scenario, we assume that LPKF will not continue its sales and

    margin growth as expected. This could essentially be due to poor sales of the LIDE,

    LTP or electronics systems. In the solar sector too, follow-up orders may now be

    delayed after the last major order, since the solar business is project business.

    Possible market correction or an ongoing period of weakness could support this

    scenario. In such a scenario, the market could be guided by the EV/Sales FY2

    valuation (EUR 11.41 per share) and re-evaluated for lower sales or margin levels

    in the DCF model.

    Our current fundamental earnings model does not include any M&A activities.

    Consequently, every upcoming M&A transaction offers an increase in our top line

    estimates. Following the reorganization of its finances, LPKF had cash on hand of

    around EUR 20.5m and an equity ratio of 68.5% as at September 2019, which

    could be used for further acquisitions.

    0.00

    2.00

    4.00

    6.00

    8.00

    10.00

    12.00

    14.00

    16.00

    18.00

    LPKF Laser & Electronics AG EVEBITDA - FY2 PeersMedian EV/EBITDA

    0.00

    10.00

    20.00

    30.00

    40.00

    50.00

    60.00

    LPKF Laser & Electronics AG PE - FY2 PeersMedian EV/EBIT

    Pessimistic value at EUR 11.41

    No M&A included

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 10 of 34

    Business Model LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, founded in 1976, is an international specialist

    manufacturer of systems and systems for laser-based production processes for

    micro material processing headquartered in Garbsen.

    In 2018, the Prime Standard listed company generated sales of EUR 120m with 655

    employees and has production facilities in Garbsen (Electronics), Suhl (Solar), Fürth

    (Welding) and Naklo, Slovenia (LaserSource and Development).

    According to their respective application field LPKF operates in four segments –

    i/ Development, ii/ Electronics, iii/ Welding and iv/ Solar – and has branches in the

    core markets Germany, USA, China, Japan and Korea. LPKF works with external

    distributors for non-core countries.

    Segments and Solutions

    Development, 20% sales Electronics, 29% sales Welding, 19% sales Solar, 32% sales

    Systems for PCB development and research

    Systems for electronics production Systems for plastic welding Systems for the production of solar cells and for laser transfer printing (LTP)

    Research institutions and universities

    Consumer Electronics, Semiconductor Industry, PCB production, microsystems technology

    Automotive supply industry, medical technology

    Solar industry

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    LPKF has customers in 70 countries, the export share is about 90% of sales. The

    largest share is in the market in Asia-Pacific, where much of the world's consumer

    electronics and solar industries are produced. The development segment generates

    sales in all regions.

    Sales by region

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, 2018

    Deutschland11%

    Übriges Europa

    26%

    Nordamerika21%

    Asien41%

    Sonstige1%

    Specialist for laser-based

    processes and production

    plants

    4 segments and worldwide

    branches

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 11 of 34

    Development-Segment In 2018, LPKF generated revenue of EUR 24.3m (20.8% of Group sales) in the

    development segment, with an EBIT margin of 18.0% (EUR 4.2m). In the past, LPKF

    was able to maintain sales at your level of over EUR 20m and in most cases

    anticipate a double-digit EBIT margin.

    In development, LPKF sells machines and equipment for PCB prototyping and micro

    material processing. Customers can thus produce in-house prototypes, process

    various substrates quickly and at high to very high quality. The advantage for the

    customer: i/ Their data stays in the house and ii/ the prototype's production time

    can be significantly reduced.

    LPKF offers solutions in the field of structuring, drilling, punch-through, separation

    and assembly (SMT) of printed circuit boards with up to eight layers. In this process,

    increasingly laser technology (series: ProtoLaser) is used. LPKF circuit board plotters

    and ProtoLaser are controlled with in-house CAM software (CircuitPro), which

    quickly implements complex layouts and allows intuitive operation.

    Customers in the development sector worldwide come mainly from the research

    environment (universities, schools and industry); LPKF claims to own 60% market

    share.

    LPKF is maintaining the continuous development of its products and expanding

    market leadership.

    Development Segment: Sales and EBIT in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    20.9

    25.1 25.5

    22.6

    24.4 25.0

    1.92.7 3.3 2.0

    5.34.5

    9.1%

    10.8%

    12.9%

    8.8%

    21.7%

    18.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

    Sales EBIT EBIT margin

    Development with 21% of

    sales, 18% EBIT margin

    Research and development

    clients, 60% market share

    worldwide

    Strengthening market

    leadership

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 12 of 34

    Welding Segment In the welding segment, LPKF achieved sales of EUR 22.2m in 2018 (18.5% of Group

    sales) with an EBIT margin of -7.2% (EUR 1.6m).

    For joining sensitive electronic components, for example in the automotive

    industry, medical technology or consumer electronics, LPKF offers systems that

    precisely and permanently weld (3D) plastic parts to each other, e.g. the LPKF

    PowerWeld 3D. It can be connected very small to large parts. The systems are

    integrated with the customer (individually, in existing production lines) (series

    InlineWeld) or sold as a standalone system (series PowerWeld). Also, LPKF offers

    contract manufacturing for the customer, mainly for small and medium lots.

    As the market leader in Europe and TOP 3 player in plastic welding worldwide, LPKF

    supplies customers from the automotive, medical technology, consumer and

    consumer electronics sectors.

    In addition to laser welding, there are other methods of plastic bonding from the

    competition. Although LPKFs offers a very low-stress and material-saving approach

    with the laser process, the technology still has to prevail on the market. The goal is

    to supply global players worldwide with the leading technological solution in the

    area of plastic joining.

    Welding Segment: Sales and EBIT in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    23.3 24.0 25.4

    22.2

    0.1-0.1

    0.6

    -1.6

    0.4%

    -0.4%

    2.4%

    -7.2% -8.0%

    -6.0%

    -4.0%

    -2.0%

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    (5.0)

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

    Sales EBIT EBIT margin

    Welding – Laser welding of

    plastic

    Market leader in Europe

    Focus on turnaround

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 13 of 34

    Solar Segment In the Solar segment, LPKF generated revenue of EUR 38.9m (32.4% of Group sales)

    in 2018, with an EBIT margin of 15.4% (EUR 8.4m).

    In the solar industry, efficient and cost-effective processes are needed to play an

    increasingly important role as an energy source in the era of sustainable energy

    production. LPKF has focused on the development of processes and the

    optimization of parameters in all steps of laser structuring in CdTe and CIGS

    technologies, taking into account cost-efficiency as well as technological aspects.

    LPKF works very closely with major thin-film module manufacturers and is the

    market leader with the Allegro system series.

    To test production processes or to investigate new manufacturing processes, LPKF

    has also developed the "Presto" – a multifunctional structuring tool for laboratory

    use.

    Also located in the solar sector is the Laser Transfer Printing (LTP). Here, similar to

    screen printing, ceramic pigments are applied to glass substrates, for example with

    the LPKF Callisto. The advantage in the approach of LTP is in the non-contact

    application technique, which does not require new screens, their manufacture and

    storage.

    With the LTP process (sole supplier), LPKF essentially competes with alternative

    printing processes, which are cheaper but have some disadvantages.

    Solar Segment: Sales and EBIT in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Thin-film methods are used only by a few large module manufacturers. LPKF strives

    to act as a partner to these few companies, and in addition to being the market

    leader in the area of CdTe, aims to develop further in CIGS production. Continuous

    improvement of manufacturing speed and processes is very important to keep the

    technological advantage for the customers.

    8.5

    13.9

    20.6

    38.9

    -3.8

    -1.0

    1.5

    6.0

    -44.7%

    -7.2%

    7.3%

    15.4%

    -50.0%

    -40.0%

    -30.0%

    -20.0%

    -10.0%

    0.0%

    10.0%

    20.0%

    (10.0)

    (5.0)

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    35.0

    40.0

    45.0

    2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

    Sales EBIT EBIT margin

    Solar - Laser structuring of

    thin film solar cells

    Presto for testing purposes in

    the laboratory

    LTP – Printing process for

    ceramic paints

    World leader in thin-film solar

    (CdTe)

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 14 of 34

    Electronics-Segment In 2018, LPKF generated EUR 35m in sales in the Electronics segment (28.8% of

    Group sales) with an EBIT margin of 2.3% (EUR 0.8m). In 2013, LPKF had a high sales

    volume in Electronics, driven by LDS technology. When sales of LDS machines

    dropped significantly, sales halved in 2015 to EUR 30m, with a correspondingly

    negative EBIT margin (-2.0% at EUR 0.6m).

    In the field of electronics, LPKF offers several solutions for the processing of printed

    circuit boards: first lasers for the production of stencils (StencilLaser P6060 and

    G6080), further separators for rigid and flexible printed circuit boards (MicroLine

    2000 Ci) as well as lasers for cutting and drilling printed circuit boards (MicroLineX

    5000). Through its internal brand, LaserMicronics, LPKF also offers the cutting,

    drilling and structuring of materials as a service.

    The Electronics division also includes the Laser Induced Deep Etching (LIDE) and

    Laser Direct Structuring (LDS) processes. The LIDE process is used to drill very fine

    structures in glass (wafers). Since LIDE places very high demands on the process,

    LPKF also offers its customers the option of manufacturing the glass wafers in their

    own clean room as a service and supplying them to customers in the semiconductor

    and electronics industries worldwide. This clean room is expected to be completed

    by mid-2020.

    Laser Direct Structuring, LDS, (ProtoLaser 3D) can be used to structure 3D printed

    circuit boards and apply printed circuit board structures to three-dimensional

    plastic parts. Weight and space can be saved with this method. In the past, LPKF

    installed LDS machines worldwide for the production of mobile phone antennas.

    With the increasing use of "smart" components and edge computing – more

    sensors in less space – and new materials, LDS is a solution.

    The electronics customers mainly come from the area of PCB manufacturing and

    the electronics industry. With LIDE, other markets must develop, or the process

    must be implemented with manufacturers. LPKF is the most technologically

    advanced and field-leading company.

    As a technology leader, LPKF is working increasingly closely with customers to

    address these issues with advanced solutions and to engage (new) customers in

    new opportunities for micromachining.

    Stencil laser

    LIDE-Method

    LDS-Method

    Fragmented customers

    depending on the solution,

    LPKF as the leading provider

    Expansion of the customer

    base, development of new

    solutions

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 15 of 34

    Electronics Segment: Sales and EBIT in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Service and Support For the laser products sold as a stand-alone system, integrated equipment or

    custom solution, LPKF offers its customers in the core markets of i/ technical

    support, ii/ commissioning and training, iii/ maintenance and calibration, iv/ spare

    parts and the v/ process optimization or installation of upgrades. Here, the

    customer can choose between three different service packages, Basic, Classic and

    Premium Service. Overall, LPKF recorded an increase in the service business (9M-

    2019: +47% yoy).

    75.7

    51.2

    29.9 30.6 31.7 34.6

    21.3

    9.4

    -0.6

    -4.4

    0.9 0.8

    28.1%

    18.4%

    -2.0%-14.4%

    2.8% 2.3%

    -20.0%

    -15.0%

    -10.0%

    -5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    30.0%

    35.0%

    (10.0)

    -

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    60.0

    70.0

    80.0

    2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

    Sales EBIT EBIT margin

    Service offers for customers

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 16 of 34

    Markets and Technologies LPKF is active in several markets with its innovative solutions, whereby the

    respective market growth is not always decisive. For LPKF as a technology company,

    investing in technology (laser) and integrating it into existing workflows/creation of

    new products is fundamentally crucial, regardless of how much later the machines

    are sold. Through its strong commitment to research and development as well as

    close cooperation with customers, LPKF can continuously improve existing

    solutions and develop new technologies (basic research) whose applications and

    impact are not immediately obvious.

    Below we present market analyzes in the areas of i/ thin-film solar modules, ii/ the

    mass market for printed circuit boards and electronic assemblies, and iii/ the

    market for glass wafers.

    Thin-film solar market Thin-film solar modules can be subdivided into three types, depending on the

    constituents: i/ cadmium telluride (CdTe), ii/ copper indium gallium di-selenide

    cells (CIGS) and iii/ amorphous thin-film silicon. LPKF generates the most revenue

    in the solar sector with a customer that produces CdTe cells and increasingly

    positions itself for the CIGS process as well.

    Worldwide annual PV production by technology

    Source: Fraunhofer Institute, Date between 2000-2010 by Navigant; Data from 2011ff. IHS Markit; Graph: PSE GmbH 2018

    The global thin-film solar market is driven by the increasing cost and performance

    efficiency of thin-film solar modules along with the increasing demand for green

    electricity/increasing sustainability awareness. Another stimulus of the market

    (mainly in the industrialized countries) are regulatory measures for energy supply.

    Market growth is expected by experts from 12% (Maximize Market Research) to

    20% (Researchnester) with a CAGR2019-27 in the coming years, starting from a

    relatively small market share so far.

    Diversified across multiple

    markets

    Various thin-film technologies

    Drivers for thin-film solar:

    increasing efficiency,

    decreasing (installation) costs,

    regulation

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 17 of 34

    Global market for thin-film solar cells in billion USD

    Source: Maximize Research

    In the scribing of thin-film cells, there are mainly two competitors worldwide,

    Manz and Mitsuboshi Diamond with different market shares – depending on the

    technology.

    Market for printed circuit boards i/ an increasing number of applications of semiconductors (sensors), ii/ increasing

    use of electronics in various applications, iii/ the increase in Internet use (IoT), and

    v/ the increased demand for environmentally friendly printed circuit boards.

    Market researchers see a CAGR rate of 3.1% - 4.3% between 2018 and 2024.

    With the growing demand for printed circuit boards from numerous end-user

    industries, the circuit board market also faces some limitations, such as competitive

    prices and volatility in commodity pricing and regulations for electronic waste. The

    major challenges facing the market include changes in the supply of raw materials

    and increased competition at regional and national levels. These limitations and

    challenges could negatively impact the market.

    16,318,4

    20,7

    23,4

    26,4

    29,8

    33,6

    37,9

    42,7

    0,0

    5,0

    10,0

    15,0

    20,0

    25,0

    30,0

    35,0

    40,0

    45,0

    2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

    CAGR: 12.8%

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 18 of 34

    Global PCB market in billion USD

    Source: Lucintel Research

    The competition for LPKF in printed circuit board processing consists mainly of

    regional suppliers.

    Market for glass wafers Especially in the semiconductor industry, there has been a great deal of interest in

    glass in recent years. Glass has valuable electrical (insulating), physical (low thermal

    expansion) and chemical (chemical resistance) properties that make it an ideal

    material for a wide range of processes not only in the semiconductor industry but

    also in all other industries. In addition to being used as a substrate in electronic

    components and integrated circuits, glass can be used in the LCD and display sector,

    as (color) filters, loudspeakers and in photovoltaic cells.

    Companies are starting to use glass wafers and other glass materials/substrates

    because of the advantages such as flexibility, flatness and mechanical rigidity in

    production. In addition to the properties mentioned glass is very inexpensive.

    At LPKF, the electronics sector is also home to the trend-setting LIDE process, the

    micromachining of glass to an unprecedented level of precision.

    The specific market for glass wafers is seen as 19.4% growth with a CAGR2019-25.

    72,775,8

    79,182,5

    86,089,7

    0,0

    10,0

    20,0

    30,0

    40,0

    50,0

    60,0

    70,0

    80,0

    90,0

    100,0

    2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    CAGR: 4.3%

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 19 of 34

    Global market for glass wafers in billion USD

    Source: QYResearch

    The competitors in the field of glass drilling are from alternative production

    processes, such as Schott or Coherent, which are currently not yet able to match

    the precision of LPKF.

    0,38

    0,46

    0,55

    0,66

    0,78

    0,93

    1,12

    0,00

    0,20

    0,40

    0,60

    0,80

    1,00

    1,20

    2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    CAGR: 19.4%

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 20 of 34

    Financials

    Successful financial year 2018 In the financial year 2018, LPKF was able to increase its turnover by 17.5% yoy to

    EUR 120m, with all segments except welding showing significant growth. Also, the

    company achieved an increase in EBIT of 73% yoy to EUR 6.8m (vs. EUR 4.0m) with

    an EBIT margin of 5.7%.

    9M-2019 In the first nine months of 2019, LPKF recorded an increase in revenue of 22.6% to

    EUR 107.5m after EUR 87.7m in the previous year. EBIT tripled from EUR 5.0m to

    EUR 15.3m, with a margin of 14.2% (previous year: 5.7%).

    The tax liability amounted to EUR 4.0 so that a consolidated result of EUR 10.9m or

    EUR 0.45 per share was generated.

    In 9M-19, LPKF was able to successfully increase sales in Electronics (+32.2%),

    Welding (+23.2%) and Solar (+29.1%); after a difficult Q3-19 Development was -

    1.7% weaker yoy. Order backlog was EUR 32.1m, below the previous year's

    EUR 54.4m.

    P&L 9M-2019 vs. 9M-2018 incl. New guidance from 09.09.2019

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    Outlook full year 2019e On the day of its Capital Market Day, LPKF had raised its revenue and earnings

    forecast for 2019 and raised long-term EBIT margin targets. For the full year 2019,

    the Managing Board expects stable growth in the global economy, with

    consolidated sales of between EUR 135m and EUR 140m (previously: EUR 130m to

    EUR 135m) and an EBIT margin of between 12% and 14% (previously: 8%-12%). This

    corresponds to an ROCE between 20% and 25% (previously: 10%-15%). In the

    following years, LPKF wants to further increase profitability and achieve an EBIT

    margin of more than 14% (previously: more than 12%).

    We expect sales of EUR 138.3m and EBIT of EUR 18.4m for the full year 2019e

    (margin of 13.3%).

    EUR m 9M 2019 9M 2018 YoY in % 2018 New guidance Before

    Sales 87.7 107.5 -18.4% 120.0 135-140 130-135

    EBIT 5.0 15.3 -67.4% 6.8

    EBIT margin 5.7% 14.2% 5.7% 12-14% 8-12%

    Net attributable profit 3.8 10.9 -65.0% 8.0

    in % of sales 4.4% 10.2% 6.7%

    EPS 0.17 0.45 -62.3% 0.33

    Sales and margin increase

    Sales- and margin

    development continues

    upward trend

    EUR 0.45 per share (vs.

    EUR 0.17 in 9M-18)

    Increase in sales and margins

    in all segments

    LPKF increases 2019 guidance:

    EUR 135-140m in sales at 12%

    -14% EBIT margin

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 21 of 34

    FMR outlook full year 2019e

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    Medium-term Outlook of the Segments LPKF's strategic goals are sustainable with profitability improvement together with

    a growth strategy for newly developed products. We see the company in its current

    position on a sustainably good path. In addition to the further optimization of

    established business areas, organic sales will be driven by the sale of LIDE systems

    (in the electronics segment) in the next few years.

    Outlook for the Development-Segment

    In recent years, turnover in the development sector has risen steadily as LPKF, as

    market leader (60% market share), works closely with clients worldwide and is

    generally known for the quality of its machines due to regular updates. For 2019e,

    we expect a slight decline to EUR 23.7m and a continuous increase in turnover to

    EUR 25.5m by 2021e.

    For the EBIT margin, we forecast a level of 15.0% in 2019e (EUR 3.6m), which will

    improve to 16.0% in the coming years.

    Sales and EBIT progress in the development segment in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    EUR m 2018 H1-2019 2019e yoy

    Sales 120.0 72.7 138.3 15.3%

    EBIT 6.8 10.1 18.4 170.6%

    EBIT margin 5.7% 13.9% 13.3%

    Net attributable profit 8.0 7.2 12.5 56.3%

    in % of sales 6.7% 9.9% 9.0%

    EPS 0.33 0.30 0.51 54.5%

    22.6 24.4 25.0 23.7

    24.9 25.5

    2.0

    5.34.5

    3.6 4.0 4.18.8%

    21.7%

    18.0%

    15.0%16.0% 16.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    30.0%

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

    Sales EBIT EBIT margin

    Sales of LIDE systems are

    crucial for profitability in the

    coming years

    Sustainable growth with a

    solid EBIT margin

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 22 of 34

    Outlook for the Electronics-Segment

    The Electronics segment has developed volatilely in recent years. Although sales

    have increased again since 2015, the margin only returned to positive territory after

    the 2017/18 restructuring.

    Thanks to great customer interest in the solutions, successful restructuring and now

    also business from the LIDE segment, we expect growth to EUR 40.5m in 2019e and

    a continuous increase in sales to EUR 46.8m by 2021e.

    We forecast an EBIT margin of 13.2% in 2019e (EUR 5.4m), which will improve to

    16.0% in the coming years - driven by high-margin LIDE business.

    Sales and EBIT development in the Electronics segment in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    30.6 31.7 34.6

    40.5 43.7

    46.8

    -4.4

    0.9 0.8

    5.4 6.27.5

    -14.4%

    2.8% 2.3%

    13.2% 14.1%16.0%

    -20.0%

    -15.0%

    -10.0%

    -5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    (10.0)

    -

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

    Sales EBIT EBIT margin

    Return of profitability after

    restructuring; Growth through

    new technologies

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 23 of 34

    Outlook for the Welding-Segment

    The Welding segment has also been volatile in recent years. After the revenue

    setback in 2018, we expect revenue to rise in 2019e as the good half-year business

    continues. LPKF was able to refocus the segment on its clients and intensify its

    cooperation. Thanks to the good technology, we expect turnover to grow to

    EUR 25.7m (+16% YoY) in 2019e and turnover to increase continuously to

    EUR 30.1m by 2021e.

    By 2020e at the latest, LPKF should reach break-even with a higher turnover volume

    and then (2021e) achieve a margin of 5.0% (EUR 1.5m).

    Sales and EBIT development in the Welding segment in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    24.0 25.4

    22.2

    25.7 27.9

    30.1

    -0.1

    0.6

    -1.6 -0.1

    0.8 1.5

    -0.4%

    2.4%

    -7.2%

    -0.5%

    3.0%

    5.0%

    -8.0%

    -6.0%

    -4.0%

    -2.0%

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    (5.0)

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    35.0

    2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

    Sales EBIT EBIT margin

    Break-even 2020e

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 24 of 34

    Outlook for the Solar-Segment

    The Solar segment has shown impressive growth since 2016 and achieved a good

    EBIT margin of 15.4% in 2018. Based on the current order situation and the result

    shown in 9M-2019, we expect renewed growth in sales and EBIT to EUR 48.4m

    (+24.3% YoY) and EUR 9.7m (20% margin) respectively. Currently, most orders

    come from a customer in the CdTe thin-film solar segment. LPKF is working to

    optimize the manufacturing processes for the cells (CdTe and CIGS technology) and

    to generate new customers.

    The LTP business is also integrated into the Solar segment. With the approval, we

    see the starting signal for solid growth in the coming years as given.

    For 2019e-21e we expect revenue growth of 15.7% YoY to EUR 60.0m with an EBIT

    margin of 20% in 2019e and 21% in 2021e – slightly improved by new customer

    acquisition and the LTP business.

    Sales and EBIT development in the Solar segment in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    13.9

    20.6

    38.9

    48.4

    54.5 60.0

    -1.0

    1.5

    6.09.7 10.9

    12.6

    -7.2%

    7.3%

    15.4%

    20.0% 20.0%21.0%

    -10.0%

    -5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    (10.0)

    -

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    60.0

    70.0

    80.0

    2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

    Sales EBIT EBIT margin

    Currently very good order

    situation, growth from 2020e

    onwards with the market

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 25 of 34

    Outlook for the LPKF Group

    Based on our expectations for the four segments, we expect LPKF to generate

    turnover of EUR 138.3m in 2019e with an EBIT margin of 13.3% (EUR 18.4m). We

    then expect turnover growth of 9.2% in 2020e and 7.5% in 2021e. We forecast an

    EBIT margin of 14.5% in 2020e and 15.8% in 2021e.

    Sales and EBIT development LPKF in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    Balance Sheet Adjusted After a capital increase in August 2018 and the operational turnaround, a large part

    of the debt financing could be repaid in 2018, bringing the equity ratio to 60%.

    Thanks to good working capital management, the equity ratio now reached 68.5%

    in 9M-2019. We expect an equity ratio of 73.2% through sustainable working capital

    monitoring and positive free cash flow in the coming years.

    91 102

    120

    138 151

    162

    (6.8)

    4.0 6.8 18.4 21.9

    25.6

    -7.4%

    3.9%5.7%

    13.3%14.5%

    15.8%

    -10.0%

    -5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    (20)

    -

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

    Revenues EBIT EBIT margin

    FMR: Increasing sales and

    profitability in the coming

    years

    Capital increase and

    operational turnaround allow

    room for takeover

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 26 of 34

    Equity (in EURm) and equity ratio

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    LPKF aims to finance its investments solely from cash flow. M&A activities can be

    financed again from this situation. Thanks to the WC management (improvement

    of EUR 14.7m in 9M 2019, mainly due to the reduction of inventories and

    receivables) and the constantly improving profitability, we see a high cash

    conversion of >70% in the coming years and consider the financing to be secured.

    EBIT and free cash flow in EURm

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    Dividend Policy LPKF did not pay any dividends for the financial year 2018 but instead focused on

    further debt relief and investments. The Executive Board believes a dividend

    payment for the financial year 2019 in 2020 is likely in the event of planned

    development. Currently, we do not respect dividends in our model. As we expect

    LPKF to generate enough cash dividends in general are financed.

    54.3 54.2

    77.7

    90.2

    105.2

    122.8

    46.5% 46.5%

    60.4%69.5% 71.3% 73.2%

    0.0%

    20.0%

    40.0%

    60.0%

    80.0%

    100.0%

    120.0%

    140.0%

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

    Equity Equity ratio

    -1.8

    3.35.8

    33.3

    19.8 20.1

    11.8 12.8

    9.0

    18.4

    21.9

    25.6

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

    Free Cash Flow EBIT

    Internal financing through

    cash flow

    Dividend payments in 2020

    planned

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 27 of 34

    Company Profile

    Company History Historical Development (Selection)

    1976 Foundation of LPKF

    1984 USA sales and service office

    1989 Entry into laser technology for PCB structuring

    1993 First Stencil Laser

    1994 Production site in Slovenia

    1998 Initial public offering

    2000 Office in China; Entry into the field of plastic welding

    2001 First laser system for drilling and structuring printed circuit boards

    2006 LDS process for three-dimensional circuit carriers is used in series production

    2007 Start with the structuring of thin-film solar cells

    2008 ProtoLaser S as the first laser system worldwide for structuring laminated substrates

    2010 Industrial UV laser cutting

    2011 First sales office in Japan

    2012 LPKF becomes leading supplier of solar scriber

    2013 New sales office in South Korea

    2015 Acquisition of LTP Startup

    2018 First LIDE system goes to a semiconductor manufacturer

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Shareholder The LPKF (Bloomberg: LPK) has been listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange since

    March 1998. The largest shareholders are Mr. Jörg Bantleon, who owns a total of

    29.95% of the shares in both privately held shares and the attributable shares of

    German Technology AG. Other shares are held by the Luxempart SARL (> 5%), the

    Sicav Lazard Small Caps Euro (> 3%) and the Société Générale (share of> 3%). All

    three are attributed to free float, which is 71%.

    LPKF has a market capitalization of approximately EUR 337m (November 2019).

    High free float of approx. 71%

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 28 of 34

    LPKF AG Shareholder Structure

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    LPKF Management Dr. Götz Bendele, CEO

    Dr. Bendele, born 1970, is Chairman of the Management Board and member of the

    Management Board since May 2018. He is appointed until April 30, 2021.

    Christian Witt, CFO

    Mr. Witt, born 1971, is CFO since September 2018 and appointed until August 31,

    2021.

    Board Dr. Markus Peters, Chairman

    Dr. Peters, born 1964, is member of the Supervisory Board since July 13, 2017,

    elected until AGM 2024 and Chairman of the Supervisory Board since October 16,

    2017.

    Dr. Dirk Michael Rothweiler, Deputy Chairman

    Dr. Rothweiler, born 1963 is member of the Supervisory Board since June 14, 2017,

    elected until the end of the 2022 Annual General Meeting, Deputy Chairman of the

    Supervisory Board since June 6, 2019

    Prof. Dr. Ludger Overmeyer

    Professor Overmeyer, born 1964, is member of the Supervisory Board since 6 June

    2019 and elected until the end of the Annual General Meeting 2024.

    Jörg Bantleon; 29,0%

    Luxempart Pipe

    SARL (Luxunion S.A.); 5,0%

    Sicav Lazard Small

    Caps Euro; 3,0%

    Société Générale S.A.; 3,0%

    Restlicher Streubesitz;

    60,1%

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 29 of 34

    Appendix

    P&L

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    in EURm 31.12.2016 31.12.2017 31.12.2018 31.12.2019 31.12.2020 31.12.2021

    Revenues 91.1 102.1 120.0 138.3 151.0 162.4

    YoY grow th 23.3% 6.9% 6.4% 3.9% -0.6% 0.9%

    Changes in inventory 2.6 2.9 5.2 4.0 3.0 3.2

    as % of revenues 2.9% 2.8% 4.3% 2.9% 2.0% 2.0%

    Cost of Materials -31.0 -33.8 -48.0 -55.3 -58.9 -61.7

    as % of revenues -34.1% -33.1% -40.0% -40.0% -39.0% -38.0%

    Personnel expense -43.9 -41.9 -44.3 -44.1 -47.3 -50.3

    as % of revenues -48.2% -41.0% -36.9% -31.9% -31.3% -31.0%

    Other operating expense -23.3 -23.3 -21.7 -20.5 -21.1 -22.7

    as % of revenues -25.6% -22.9% -18.1% -14.8% -14.0% -14.0%

    Other operating income 5.8 5.7 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.2

    as % of revenues 6.3% 5.6% 3.1% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0%

    EBITDA 1.3 11.6 14.9 25.9 29.7 34.2

    as % of revenues 1.4% 11.4% 12.4% 18.7% 19.7% 21.0%

    Depreciation and amortisation (incl. PPA) -8.1 -7.7 -8.1 -7.5 -7.9 -8.6

    as % of revenues -8.8% -7.5% -6.7% -5.4% -5.2% -5.3%

    EBIT -6.8 4.0 6.8 18.4 21.9 25.6

    as % of revenues -7.4% 3.9% 5.7% 13.3% 14.5% 15.8%

    Net financial results incl. equity results -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5

    EBT (Earnings before income taxes) -7.6 3.0 6.0 17.9 21.4 25.1

    as % of revenues -8.3% 3.0% 5.0% 12.9% 14.1% 15.5%

    Income taxes -1.2 -1.9 2.1 -5.4 -6.4 -7.5

    as % of EBT 16.4% -61.8% 34.6% -30.0% -30.0% -30.0%

    Net income -8.8 1.2 8.0 12.5 14.9 17.6

    Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Adjusted net income after minorities -8.8 1.2 8.0 12.5 14.9 17.6

    Net margin in % -9.7% 1.1% 6.7% 9.0% 9.9% 10.8%

    Shares outstanding (in m) 22.3 22.3 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5

    Earnings per share -0.40 0.05 0.33 0.51 0.61 0.72

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 30 of 34

    Balance Sheet

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    in EURm 31.12.2016 31.12.2017 31.12.2018 31.12.2019 31.12.2020 31.12.2021

    Assets

    Non-current assets 66.4 63.9 64.8 62.4 63.5 60.9

    as % of total assets 56.8% 54.8% 50.3% 48.1% 43.0% 36.3%

    Intangible assets (incl. Goodwill) 15.3 15.4 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.5

    Property and buildings 38.6 38.6 37.8 36.8 39.3 38.3

    Other assets 12.5 9.8 11.8 10.0 8.1 6.1

    Current assets 50.5 52.7 64.0 67.4 84.1 106.9

    as % of total assets 43.2% 45.2% 49.7% 51.9% 57.0% 63.7%

    Inventories 25.0 25.5 25.7 22.0 18.9 20.3

    Accounts receivable 19.8 19.4 30.5 16.6 18.1 19.5

    Other receivables and other assets 2.2 4.4 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.0

    Cash and cash equivalents 3.6 3.3 3.7 24.5 42.4 62.0

    Total assets 116.9 116.6 128.8 129.8 147.6 167.7

    Shareholders´ equity and liabilities

    Shareholderś equity 54.3 54.2 77.7 90.2 105.1 122.7

    as % of total equity and liabilities 46.5% 46.5% 60.4% 69.5% 71.3% 73.2%

    Subscribed capital 22.3 22.3 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5

    Other equity 32.1 32.0 53.2 65.7 80.7 98.2

    Equity attributable to shareholders 54.3 54.2 77.7 90.2 105.1 122.7

    Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Financial debt 43.5 41.0 20.0 8.1 8.1 8.1

    as % of total equity and liabilities 37.2% 35.2% 15.6% 6.3% 5.5% 4.9%

    Long-term financial liabilities 22.6 20.0 17.4 5.5 5.5 5.5

    Short-term financial liabilities 20.9 21.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

    Liabilities 15.0 16.7 25.3 22.8 24.9 26.8

    as % of total equity and liabilities 12.8% 14.4% 19.6% 17.6% 16.9% 16.0%

    Accounts payable 3.1 3.2 6.9 5.5 6.0 6.5

    Other liabilities 11.9 13.5 18.4 17.3 18.9 20.3

    Provisions 4.2 4.6 5.7 8.6 9.3 10.0

    as % of total equity and liabilities 3.6% 3.9% 4.5% 6.6% 6.3% 6.0%

    Pension provisions and similar obligations 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

    Provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Other provisions 3.9 4.3 5.5 8.3 9.1 9.7

    Total equity and liabilities 116.9 116.6 128.8 129.8 147.6 167.7

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 31 of 34

    Cashflow Statement

    Source: LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, FMR Research AG

    in EURm 31.12.2017 31.12.2018 31.12.2019 31.12.2020 31.12.2021

    Net income 1.2 8.0 12.5 14.9 17.6

    Depreciation and amortisation 7.7 8.1 7.5 7.9 8.6

    Change in Working Capital -0.2 -1.2 17.8 4.0 -0.6

    Cash flow from operating activities 8.6 14.9 37.8 26.8 25.6

    CAPEX -4.7 -8.6 -5.0 -7.5 -5.9

    Cash flow from investing activities -4.7 -8.6 -5.0 -7.5 -5.9

    Change in debt -2.5 -21.0 -11.9 0.0 0.0

    Net proceeds from capital increase 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Dividend payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Other financing activities 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Cash flow from financing activities -2.4 -18.8 -11.9 0.0 0.0

    Total change in cash and cash equivalents 1.4 -12.5 20.8 19.3 19.7

    Other changes in cash and cash equivalents -1.6 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Cash and cash equivalents at the start of the period 3.6 3.3 3.7 24.5 43.9

    Cash and cash equivalents at year´s end 3.4 3.7 24.5 43.9 63.5

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Seite 32 von 34

    Declaration of liability (disclaimer) and mandatory details pursuant to Section 85 Securities Trading Act (WpHG), EU Market Abuse Regulation (EU Regulation No.

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    2. Mandatory details

    a) First publication: 22.11.2019,

    b) Time conditions of expected updates: quarterly

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  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 33 of 34

    Company Disclosure(s)

    LPKF Laser & Electronics AG -

    b) FMR Frankfurt Main Research AG has concluded a cooperation agreement with Oddo Seydler Bank AG, on the basis of which this financial analysis is compiled.

    Oddo Seydler Bank AG is acting as the agent of the issuer, which is either the subject of the financial analysis itself or its financial instruments are the subject of the

    financial analysis.

    Neither Oddo Seydler Bank AG nor an affiliated company, nor any person who contributed to the compilation

    (i.) has an involvement in the share capital of the issuer of at least 5 per cent;

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    (iii.) managed financial instruments of the issuer on a market by means of concluding purchase or sale agreements:

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    (v.) is in possession of a net sales or purchase position which exceeds the threshold of 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the issuer;

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    (vii.) has other significant interests with regard to the company being analysed, for example clients with the company being analysed.

    Company Disclosure(s)

    LPKF Laser & Electronics AG iii, vi

    Valuation history for the last 12 months:

    Date of publication Recommendation Price at publication Target price

    22.11.2019 HOLD 13.75 13.00

    4. Creation and distribution

    a) Responsibility for creation and distribution

    FMR Frankfurt Main Research AG

    Registered office: Frankfurt am Main; Commercial Register No. HRB 113537, Frankfurt am Main district court; Chairman: Marcus Silbe

    b) Issuer

    Felix Lutz, Analyst

    c) This study may only be used for the internal purposes of the addressee within the EEA or Switzerland.

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    Investment recommendation details - stocks:

    BUY: In our opinion, the stock will demonstrate an absolute price gain of at least 10 % in a 12-month period.

    HOLD: In our opinion, the stock will not exceed or fall below an absolute price gain or loss of 10% in a 12-month period.

    Sell: In our opinion, the stock will demonstrate an absolute price loss of at least 10 % in a 12-month period.

  • LPKF Laser & Electronics AG

    Page 34 of 34

    6. Sensitivity of the evaluation parameters

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