Трамп Си - 2020 Australian Cotton Conference...Фискальная политика...
26
? Новая холодная война Если да, то что это значит? Трамп и Си
Transcript of Трамп Си - 2020 Australian Cotton Conference...Фискальная политика...
If so, what does it mean?
A иEW CфLD WAᴙ? Новая холодная война
Если да, то что это значит?
Трамп и Си
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankCσммυиisм
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankCσммυиisм
Soviet Economy
Trade
Monetary policy
Workers
Fiscal policy
MONETARY POLICY
IRRELEVANTFISCAL POLICY TOP
SECRET
Autarchy or mercantilism
Buy fixed-price goods
(or rely on black markets)
Монетарная политика не
имеет значенияНалоговая политика
верхний секрет
Aвтаркии или
меркантилизма
Купить товары с фиксированной
ценой
(или полагаться на черные рынки)
Торговли
Монетарная
политика
Работников
Фискальная
политика
Советская экономика
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankCσld wαя – US vicтσяy
Post-WW2 struggle between West and Communism
Capitalism tempers itself to retain workers’ support:
Result: huge consumer boom in Western economies
- Welfare state
- Infrastructure spending
- Capital controls
- Strict FX controls
- Financial regulation
- Государство всеобщего
благоденствия
- Расходы на инфраструктуру
- Управление капиталом
- Строгий контроль FX
- Финансовое регулирование
Капитализм смягчает себя,
чтобы сохранить поддержку
рабочих:
Результат: огромный
потребительский бум в
западных странах
Борьба между Западом и
коммунизмом после второй
мировой войны
US “Opens up” ChinaСША "открывает Китай"
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankTнє US gαмblє
Capitalists of the world, unite!капиталисты мира, объединяйтесь!
US policy assumption:
Emerging markets adopt neoliberal capitalism, political liberalism and stability follows
Francis Fukuyama –“The End of History and the Last Man”
Предположение политики США:
По мере того как формирующиеся рынки принимают неолиберальной капитализм, политический либерализм и стабильность
будут следовать
Фрэнсис Фукуяма — "конец истории и последний человек"
RaboResearch GEM
яabobank2008 sєєs Wєsт sтυмblє
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankCнiиα υsєs US sysтєм αs lαddєя
China joins WTO 2001
Promises to join rules-based global system
China integrates into
global economy
Китай
присоединился к
WТО 2001
Обещания
присоединиться к
глобальной системе,
основанной на
правилах
Китай
интегрируется
в
Глобальная
экономика
RaboResearch GEM
Cнiиєsє cσммυиisм diffєяєит?
Chinese Economy
Trade
Monetary policy
Workers
Fiscal policy
MONETARY POLICY
LARGELY IRRELEVANT
FISCAL POLICY VERY
OPAQUE
Mercantilist
Normal consumers
Монетарная политика в
значительной степени не
имеет значения
Фискальная политика
очень непрозрачна
чрезвычайно
протекционистских
Нормальные потребители
Торговли
Монетарная
политика
Работников
Фискальная
политика
Китайская экономика
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankCнiиα αlwαys "diffєяєит"
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankTєяяiтσяiαl flαsнρσiитs яisiиg
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankCнiиα wαитs тσ bє #1
China wants to be
#1 and for world
to be more like it
Кита хочет быть #1
и для мира быть
больше как оно
19th Party Congress shows
China rejecting US-centric world order
19-й Партийный конгресс показывает
Китай отвергает США-ориентированный мировой
порядок
“The new world
order cannot be
just dominated by
capitalism and the
West, and the time
will come for a
change.”
"новый мировой
порядок не может
быть просто
доминируют
капитализма и Запада,
и придет время для
перемен".
“By 2050 China is
set to regain its
might and re-
ascend to the top
of the world.”
"к 2050 Китай
установлен, чтобы
восстановить свою
мощь и вновь
подняться на вершину
мира".
YOUR
PICTURE
HERE
RaboResearch GEM
яabobank…αиd sσ иєw Cσld Wαя?
To prevail, we must
integrate all elements
of America’s national
power political,
economic, and military
After being dismissed as a
phenomenon of an earlier
century, great power
competition returned
China and Russia want to
shape a world antithetical
to US values and interests
Чтобы одержать победу, мы
должны интегрировать все
элементы национальной
власти Америки
политической,
экономической и военной
После увольнения, как явление
в начале века, великая держава
конкуренция вернулась
Китай и Россия хотят
сформировать мир,
несовместимый с ценностями
и интересами США
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankHєяє cσмє тнє big gυиs
Huawei/
AT&T
deal dies
Tariffs on solar panels,
washing machines,
steel, aluminium
$50
bn
25%
tariffs
$400
bn
25%
tariffs!
ZTE
dies…
lives
China Mobile ban
FDI stop, visa halt to slow 2025 and 2050
goals
Cнiиα cσиfidєит σf vicтσяy…
“If this trade war comes to pass, it will be an evenly
matched total war between China and the US
economies, and not some small scuffle. It would be
delusional for the US to think it will be victorious at the
end of this trade war. China comes up with the
conclusion in confidence, and will not shy away from
letting Washington know in this situation.”
Global Times 5 April
"Если эта торговая война пройдет, это будет
равномерно соответствует тотальной войне
между Китаем и экономикой США, а не какой-то
небольшой драки. Было бы бредовой для США
думать, что победит в конце этой торговой
войны. Кита приходит с заключением в доверии, и
не будет уклоняться прочь от препятствовать
Вашингтон знать в этой ситуации.»
Глобальное время 5 апреля
Bυт dσи'т bєliєvє тнє нyρє…
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankCнiиα συтмαтcнєd
Geo
gra
phy
Res
ourc
es
Poli
tics
Dem
ogra
phy
Educa
tion
Gro
wth
Busi
nes
s C
lim
ate
Deb
t
Tra
de
Curr
ency
?
RaboResearch GEM
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17
Sh
are
of
glo
ba
l S
WIF
T t
ran
sact
ion
s
USD EUR GBP JPY CNY CAD AUD CHF Others
яabobankCυяяєиcy = αcнillєs нєєl
CNY
irrelevant
CNY не имеет
значения из-за
меркантилизма
и капитала
контроля
China to devalue
CNY?
FX Wars AND
Trade Wars AND
Cold War?
Could prove
disastrous
Китай, чтобы
переценить CNY?
FX войн и торговых
войн и холодной
войны?
Может оказаться
катастрофическим
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankTяαdє = αcнillєs нєєl
Majority of China’s trade surplus with EU & US
China vulnerable to trade squeeze
Большая часть торгового профицита Китая с
развитой экономикой
Китай уязвимы для торговли сжать-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-94 Jan-99 Jan-04 Jan-09 Jan-14
Chin
a tr
ade
with
, USD
bn12
M
US EU RoW
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-94 Jan-99 Jan-04 Jan-09 Jan-14
Chin
a tr
ade
with
, USD
bn12
M
RoW
RaboResearch GEM
αxis αиd αlliєs
Threats
Allies
Rogues
In
play?
Trump
threat:
co-operate vs.
China or face
US steel,
aluminium
tariffs!
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankFiяsт ‘sнσтs’
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankαяєαs σf vυlиєяαbiliтy
RaboResearch GEM
αlliєs?!?Chinese press has
made clear it will
then punish Australia
for its impudence and
switch to buying
American!
Китайская пресса
сделала ясно, он
будет наказывать
Австралию за его
наглость и перейти
к покупке
американских!
If we DO avoid US-China
trade war it will be
because US does short-
term deal to sell more
gas, food, and cotton to
China
Если мы будем
избегать США-
Китай торговая
война это будет
потому, что США
делает
краткосрочные
сделки продать
больше газа,
продуктов питания
и хлопка в Китай
RaboResearch GEM
яabobankWнσ wiиs?
• Fiscal boost
• Higher rates
• China must match or see CNY collapse
• Tariffs
• FDI boycott
• China trade surplus reduced
• Tech gains slowed
• China crisis
• -13% fiscal deficit
• BoP deficit
• Huge debts
• CNY collapse
• OBOR stalls
• China’s over-take of US delayed
• China regional not global power
• US yields surge with deficit
• USD declines as reserve appeal fades
• OBOR beats “US First”
• Chinese buyers too strong to resist
• AI, big data, “caged” markets provide rapid GDP growth
• US can’t follow
• US fades to key regional power
• China global #1
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Q1-94 Q1-03 Q1-12 Q1-19 Q1-23
USDbn
China GDP US GDP
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Q1-94 Q1-03 Q1-12 Q1-21 Q1-30
USDbn
China GDP US GDP
RaboResearch GEM
New Cold War here to stay
Trade war part, not all of it
Could get far worse
Volatility to rise
Pick a side!
Cσиclυsiσи:
RaboResearch GEM
RaboResearch GEM
Important noticeDisclaimer
Non Independent Research
This document is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. incorporated in the Netherlands, trading as Rabobank London (“RL”). The liability of its members is limited. RL is authorised by De
Nederlandsche Bank, Netherlands and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and PRA. Details about the extent of our
authorisation and regulation by the PRA, and regulation by the FCA are available from us on request. Registered in England and Wales No. BR002630. This document is directed exclusively to Eligible
Counterparties and Professional Clients. It is not directed at Retail Clients.
This document does not purport to be impartial research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of Investment Research and is not
subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of Investment Research. This document does NOT purport to be an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject
matter and it must not be relied upon by any recipient as an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. No reliance may be placed by a recipient on any representations or
statements made outside this document (oral or written) by any person which state or imply (or may be reasonably viewed as stating or implying) any such impartiality.
This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or a commitment by RL or any of its affiliates to enter into a transaction. This document does not
constitute investment advice and nor is any information provided intended to offer sufficient information such that is should be relied upon for the purposes of making a decision in relation to
whether to acquire any financial products. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness.
The information contained in this document is not to be relied upon by the recipient as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient. Any opinions, forecasts or
estimates herein constitute a judgement of RL as at the date of this document, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or
estimates. All opinions expressed in this document are subject to change without notice.
To the extent permitted by law, neither RL, nor other legal entities in the group to which it belongs accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising from any use
of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
Insofar as permitted by applicable laws and regulations, RL or other legal entities in the group to which it belongs, their directors, officers and/or employees may have had or have a long or short
position or act as a market maker and may have traded or acted as principal in the securities described within this document (or related investments) or may otherwise have conflicting interests. This
may include hedging transactions carried out by RL or other legal entities in the group, and such hedging transactions may affect the value and/or liquidity of the securities described in this
document. Further it may have or have had a relationship with or may provide or have provided corporate finance or other services to companies whose securities (or related investments) are
described in this document. Further, internal and external publications may have been issued prior to this publication where strategies may conflict according to market conditions at the time of each
publication.
This document is not intended for distribution in the United States or to or for the account of US persons and the distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and
recipients of this document should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose,
except with the prior written consent of RL. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing restrictions.
Please email [email protected] to be removed from this mailing list
© Rabobank London, Thames Court, One Queenhithe, London EC4V 3RL +44(0) 207 809 3000
