Post on 21-Jul-2020
U R B A N I T YBOGDAN & VAN BROECK | 2016
U R B A N I T Y ?
M Y T H E S
U I T D A G I N G E N
U R B A N I T Y
M Y T H E 1 :
“ C L I M A T E C H A N G E I S T H E C A U S E O F M O S T E N V I R O N M E N T A L I S S U E S ”
You areH E R E
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Earth (seen from Mars) | © NASA
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Earth (seen from the Moon) | © NASA
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Global Warming | © Banksy
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: South African Weather Service
G E M I D D E L D E O P P E R V L A K T E T E M P E R A T U U R V A N D E A A R D E
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Bron: IPCC AR5, data van de HadCRUT4-dataset (black), UK Met Office Hadley Centre, de NCDC MLOST-dataset (oranje), US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, en de NASA GISS-dataset (blue), US National Aeronautic and Space Administration
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
NASA Earth
Observatory images
NASA Earth Observatory images
T H E A N T R O P O C E N E
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
A new geological epoch characterised by a dominant human activity on Earth
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
© Nick Brandt - Inherit the dust: Wasteland with elephant, 2015
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Albatros Midway Island Atoll
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Deforestation, British Columbia
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Greenhouses, Almeria
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Industrial Livestock, Brasil
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Los Angeles, USA
M A N K I N D E A T S E A R T H
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Graphics: Sarah Poot
Today Today, if all humans hadWestern consumption patterns
2070?
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
At western consumption rate, 4 planet earths are needed to accommodate the same level of consumption and waste to a world population of 7 billion. What about 2050?
Human-based activities
30 % 2,8 %
M I N I M U M F L A N D E R S
Human-free space
E V E R Y E C O S Y S T E M N E E D S + / - 3 0 % O F ‘ H U M A N - F R E E ’ S P A C E
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Graphics: Sarah Poot
L A N D - U S E I S T H E M A I N P R O B L E M
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Graphics: Sarah Poot
M Y T H E 2 :
“ V L A A N D E R E N I S E E N D E N S B E B O U W D E M E T R O P O O L ”
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Geopunt Vlaanderen, 2011
S P R A W L I N G U R B A N I S A T I O N
1 9 7 6
2 0 0 2
2 0 5 0
Built-up land
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Source: Geopunt Vlaanderen, 2011
1985
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
32%
Residential
% of total Flanders area
Transport and Telecommunications Industries Commercial Recreational Other
E V O L U T I O N O F B U I LT S U R F A C E I N F L A N D E R S
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Source: http://statbel.fgov.be, 2011
1985
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
14
?
E V O L U T I O N O F T H E D A I L Y I N C R E A S E O F B U I LT S U R F A C E I N F L A N D E R S
Hectare per day / Linear trends
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: European Environment Agency, 2014
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Endangered land in Flanders
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Graphics: Sarah Poot
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Graphics: Sarah Poot
0
20
40
60
80
100 %
20,09% 26,57% 14,31%
30 528 km2 13 522 km26 132 km2 3 593 km2
16 844 km22 411 km2
= +
Built-up land Other
(Data 2014 : 32,10%)
B U I LT - U P R A T E S I N B E L G I U M I N 2 0 1 1
B E L G I U M F L A N D E R S WA L L O N I A
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: http://statbel.fgov.be, 2011
Projected on the territory with a density of 27 000 inhabitants per km2
+/- 265 km long * 1500 m wide +/- 2,5 * 161,4 km2 (Brussels Area)
B E L G I U M A T M A N H A T T A N ’ S D E N S I T Y
T O TA L P O P U L AT I O N = 1 1 2 0 3 9 9 2 I N H A B .
O N E B O R D E R 2 , 5 B R U S S E L S R E G I O N
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Graphics: Sarah Poot, based on a drawing from S,M,L,XL by OMA
243 610 km2
64 100 000 inhabitants
266 inhabitants/km2
30 528 km2
11 158 000 inhabitants
355 inhabitants/km2
U K B E L G I U M
D E N S I T Y C O M PA R I S O N O F U K A N D B E L G I U M
M E A S U R E D O N T H E W H O L E S U R FA C E O F T H E C O U N T R YBelgium has the 3rd highest density in Europe...
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Eurostats
D E N S I T Y C O M P A R I S O N O F U K A N D B E L G I U M
M E A S U R E D W I T H I N T H E B U I LT - U P F R A C T I O NBelgium actually has a very low density!
note: Flanders has 6.437.680 inhabitants on 4.327 km² of built-up land, a.k.a. only 1.488 inhabitants/km²
Other
Built-up fraction : 6.8%
+/-3.900 inhabitants/km2
Built-up fraction : 20.01%
+/-2.700 inhabitants/km2
U K B E L G I U M
Built-up land
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Eurostats
Green belts
G R E E N B E LT S I N E N G L A N D
Urban nodes
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source : http://data.london.gov.uk, 2013
Other
Built-up fraction : 6.8%
3890 inhabitants/km2
Built-up fraction : 20.01%
Space for 17.000.000 inhabitatnts
(Prognosis 2060 : 12.000.000 inhabitants)
U K B E L G I U M
Built-up land Unnecessary built-up land
D E N S I T Y C O M P A R I S O N O F U K A N D B E L G I U M
UK’s density projected on Belgium: space for 17.000.000 inhabitants instead of the 11.000.000 dd. 2015
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Eurostats
T H E W O R L D P O P U L A T I O N C O U L D F I T I N T E X A S
*
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Source: Country of Cities | * 25 units per acre = ± 60 units per hectare
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Malta 13.27Belgium
Netherlands7.377.33
LiechtensteinGermany
LuxembourgCyprus
DenmarkUnited Kingdom
Czech RepublicHungaryPortugal
ItalyFrance
5.765.07
4.93.623.53
3.343.193.163.10
2.812.77
SwitzerlandPoland
SlovakiaCroatia
LithuaniaAustria
SloveniaBulgaria
SerbiaAverage
RomaniaIreland
SpainGreeceLatvia
Former Yugoslav Rep. of MacedoniaEstoniaTurkey
MontenegroAlbaniaFinland
SwedenNorwayIceland
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2.672.362.35
2.112.001.921.841.841.821.81
1.611.59
1.421.35
1.11
0.870.870.810.77
0.620.51
0.370.200.15
1.09
S E A L E D S U R F A C E S I N E U R O P E
% of total land area
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Source: Eurostats, 2012
4
5
31
Very unfavourable Moderately favourable Favourable
9
1034
6
Very unfavourable Moderately favourable Favourable Unknown
9
1034
6
Very unfavourable Moderately favourable Favourable Unknown
H A B I T A T T Y P E S - F A U N A & F L O R A
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: INBO - Natuurindicatoren, 2013
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In Belgium, migrating animals encounter man-made roads every 300m on average, resulting in a death rate of 8 million every year. | Source: Natuurpunt
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Advertisement for car insurance
Human-based activities
30 % 2,8 %
E C O S Y S T E M B A L A N C E
M I N I M U M F L A N D E R S
Human-free space
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: European Environment Agency, 2014
R E C O R D S & P R O B L E M S
• CO2 uitstoot• % bebouwde oppervlakte• waterdichte oppervlakte• mobiliteit:
• uren file per werknemer• onmogelijk openbaar vervoer• auto ongelukken • thuiszorg
• infrastructuur en overheidsuitgaven :• km weg per wooneenheid• km riolering• km waterleiding• km gasbuis• km kabel voor electro, telefoon, data, tv• glasvezel ??? • aantal politici en ambtenaren per 1000 inwoners • belastingaftrekbare bedrijfswagens • hoogste belastingstarieven ter wereld• energie-intensiteit• gesubsidieerde versnippering via vaste aansluitingskost
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
M Y T H E 3
-
H E T P L A T T E L A N D I S
E C O L O G I S C H E R
G E Z O N D E R
G O E D K O P E R
V E I L I G E R
. . .
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
M I L I E U - I M P A C T B E R E K E N I N G
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
KULeuven research - prof. dr. Karen Allacker & Damien Trigaux - 2016
3
DAMIEN TRIGAUX | 14.04.16
[RESULTATEN]MILIEU-IMPACTBEREKENING
+3% -23%
• verkeersslachtoffers, • infrastructuur, • strooizouten, • mobiliteit,• thuiszorg, • etc.
Model 1Vrijstaand
Passief
Model 219e eeuw Rijwoning
Niet Geïsoleerd
Model 319e eeuw Rijwoning
Licht Geïsoleerd
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
KULeuven research - prof. dr. Karen Allacker & Damien Trigaux - 2016
2
DAMIEN TRIGAUX | 14.04.16
[RESULTATEN]3 MODELLEN
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Woningtype Vrijstaand Rijwoning Rijwoning
Isolatieniveau Passief Niet geïsoleerd Licht geïsoleerd (enkel dakisolatie)
Type Glas Driedubbele beglazing Enkel glas Thermisch verbeterd dubbelglas
Ligging Buitengebied Stedelijk gebied rond Brussel Stedelijk gebied rond Brussel
VRIJSTAANDE WONINGEN
V/T = 0.19
RIJWONINGEN
V/T = 0.58
50 10 km 50 10 km
5 . 3 m i l l i o n 7 , 6 9 2 k m 2 6 . 9 t o n n e s 5 m i l l i o n 6 4 8 k m 2 1 . 1 6 t o n n e s
T R A N S P O R T E M I S S I O N S
A T L A N T A B A R C E L O N A
Population Urban area Transport carbon emission p.c. Population Urban area Transport carbon
emission p.c.
More compact development can reduce transport emissions by order of magnitude
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source : LSE Cities, 2014
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A V E R A G E C A R B O N E M I S S I O N S P E R H O U S E H O L D B Y S E L E C T E D N E I G H B O R H O O D T Y P E S
Source: Country of Cities
Chicago
New Yo
rk City
Wallon
ia
Los Ange
les
San
Franci
sco
Manha
ttan
Fland
ers
Brussels
Region
0
446905 2 195 6 422 10 204 25 846 202 6 238
20
40
60
80
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Inhabitants/km2Inhabitants/km2
Public transport commuting Car-based commutingBiking or walking commuting
R E L A T I O N B E T W E E N D E N S I T Y A N D C O M M U T I N G
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Various data
A V E R A G E D I S T A N C E S T R A V E L E D B Y C A R F O R S E L E C T E D A C T I V I T I E S
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Country of Cities
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
C O M M U T I N G D I S T A N C E A F F E C T P R E V A L E N C E O F O B E S I T Y
Source: Country of Cities
R O M A N C E A N D C O M M U T I N G T I M E
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Country of Cities
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Metro, 28/05/2015
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
New York Co, NY
Kings Co, NY
Bronx Co, NY
San Francisco, CA
Queens Co, NY
Hudson Co, NJ
Philadelphia, PA
Su�olk Co, MA
Richmond Co, NY
Baltimore City, MD
Stockes Co, NC
Miami Co, KS
Davie Co, NC
Isanti Co, MN
Walton Co, NC
Yadkin Co, NC
Goochland Co, VA
Fulton Co, OH
Clinton Co, MI
Geauga Co, OH
Annual tra�c death per 100.000 pop.
A N N U A L T R A F F I C D E A T H R A T E S
Smartest growth
Most sprawled
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Ewing, Shieber and Zegeer, 2003
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Slicker City
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: www.citylab.com
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: www.thecostofsprawl.com, 2013
D E N S I T Y A N D P R O D U C T I V I T Y
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Country of Cities
J O B D E N S I T Y A N D P E R C A P I T A I N N O V A T I O N R A T E
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Country of Cities
W H E R E A M E R I C A N P R O S P E R I T Y I S P R O D U C E D
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Country of Cities
C O M M U T I N G D I S T A N C E A F F E C T S L E V E L S O F P H Y S I C A L A C T I V I T Y
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: Country of Cities
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
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U I T D A G I N G E N
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
1985
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
35
?
E V O L U T I O N O F I N H A B I T A N T S P E R H E C T A R E O F B U I L T L A N D I N F L A N D E R S
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: European Environment Agency, 2014
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DMmagazine - 5 maart 2016, p. 113
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De Morgen - 13 maart 2016, p. 8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
14
E U T A R G E T F O R F L A N D E R S : D A I L Y I N C R E A S E O F B U I LT S U R F A C E = 0 B Y 2 0 5 0
Hectare per day
Existing data EU target Ideal target Business as usual
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Source: European Environment Agency, 2014
C O N T I N U O U S E C O S Y S T E M
30% of Flanders total area projected on the territory
+/- 200 km long by 20 km wide
+ / - 4 0 0 0 K M 2
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Graphics: Sarah Poot
O P P O R T U N I T E I T E N V O O R L E V E N S K W A L I T E I T
• verouderd patrimonium in dorpen en steden
• migratie
• vergrijzing
• gezondheidszorg
• armoede
• biodiversiteit
• mobiliteit
• defragmentatie van de open ruimte
• landbouw & lokale productie
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Where would you prefer to live? | © BOGDAN & VAN BROECK, High-rise study Ghent
“Er wacht ons potentieel de meeste rendabele vastgoedoperatie van de volgende decennia.”
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
U R B A N I T Y
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
BOGDAN & VAN BROECK
Sprawl vs. compact urban areas