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U R B A N I T YBOGDAN & VAN BROECK | 2016

U R B A N I T Y ?

M Y T H E S

U I T D A G I N G E N

U R B A N I T Y

M Y T H E 1 :

“ C L I M A T E C H A N G E I S T H E C A U S E O F M O S T E N V I R O N M E N T A L I S S U E S ”

You areH E R E

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Earth (seen from Mars) | © NASA

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Earth (seen from the Moon) | © NASA

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Global Warming | © Banksy

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: South African Weather Service

G E M I D D E L D E O P P E R V L A K T E T E M P E R A T U U R V A N D E A A R D E

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Bron: IPCC AR5, data van de HadCRUT4-dataset (black), UK Met Office Hadley Centre, de NCDC MLOST-dataset (oranje), US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, en de NASA GISS-dataset (blue), US National Aeronautic and Space Administration

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

NASA Earth

Observatory images

NASA Earth Observatory images

T H E A N T R O P O C E N E

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

A new geological epoch characterised by a dominant human activity on Earth

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

© Nick Brandt - Inherit the dust: Wasteland with elephant, 2015

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Albatros Midway Island Atoll

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Deforestation, British Columbia

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Greenhouses, Almeria

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Industrial Livestock, Brasil

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Los Angeles, USA

M A N K I N D E A T S E A R T H

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Graphics: Sarah Poot

Today Today, if all humans hadWestern consumption patterns

2070?

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

At western consumption rate, 4 planet earths are needed to accommodate the same level of consumption and waste to a world population of 7 billion. What about 2050?

Human-based activities

30 % 2,8 %

M I N I M U M F L A N D E R S

Human-free space

E V E R Y E C O S Y S T E M N E E D S + / - 3 0 % O F ‘ H U M A N - F R E E ’ S P A C E

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


L A N D - U S E I S T H E M A I N P R O B L E M

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


M Y T H E 2 :

“ V L A A N D E R E N I S E E N D E N S B E B O U W D E M E T R O P O O L ”

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: Geopunt Vlaanderen, 2011

S P R A W L I N G U R B A N I S A T I O N

1 9 7 6

2 0 0 2

2 0 5 0

Built-up land

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: Geopunt Vlaanderen, 2011

1985

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

32%

Residential

% of total Flanders area

Transport and Telecommunications Industries Commercial Recreational Other

E V O L U T I O N O F B U I LT S U R F A C E I N F L A N D E R S

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: http://statbel.fgov.be, 2011

1985

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

14

?

E V O L U T I O N O F T H E D A I L Y I N C R E A S E O F B U I LT S U R F A C E I N F L A N D E R S

Hectare per day / Linear trends

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: European Environment Agency, 2014

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Endangered land in Flanders

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


0

20

40

60

80

100 %

20,09% 26,57% 14,31%

30 528 km2 13 522 km26 132 km2 3 593 km2

16 844 km22 411 km2

= +

Built-up land Other

(Data 2014 : 32,10%)

B U I LT - U P R A T E S I N B E L G I U M I N 2 0 1 1

B E L G I U M F L A N D E R S WA L L O N I A

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: http://statbel.fgov.be, 2011

Projected on the territory with a density of 27 000 inhabitants per km2

+/- 265 km long * 1500 m wide +/- 2,5 * 161,4 km2 (Brussels Area)

B E L G I U M A T M A N H A T T A N ’ S D E N S I T Y

T O TA L P O P U L AT I O N = 1 1 2 0 3 9 9 2 I N H A B .

O N E B O R D E R 2 , 5 B R U S S E L S R E G I O N

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Graphics: Sarah Poot, based on a drawing from S,M,L,XL by OMA

243 610 km2

64 100 000 inhabitants

266 inhabitants/km2

30 528 km2

11 158 000 inhabitants

355 inhabitants/km2

U K B E L G I U M

D E N S I T Y C O M PA R I S O N O F U K A N D B E L G I U M

M E A S U R E D O N T H E W H O L E S U R FA C E O F T H E C O U N T R YBelgium has the 3rd highest density in Europe...

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: Eurostats

D E N S I T Y C O M P A R I S O N O F U K A N D B E L G I U M

M E A S U R E D W I T H I N T H E B U I LT - U P F R A C T I O NBelgium actually has a very low density!

note: Flanders has 6.437.680 inhabitants on 4.327 km² of built-up land, a.k.a. only 1.488 inhabitants/km²

Other

Built-up fraction : 6.8%

+/-3.900 inhabitants/km2


+/-2.700 inhabitants/km2

U K B E L G I U M

Built-up land

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: Eurostats

Green belts

G R E E N B E LT S I N E N G L A N D

Urban nodes

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source : http://data.london.gov.uk, 2013

Other


3890 inhabitants/km2


Space for 17.000.000 inhabitatnts

(Prognosis 2060 : 12.000.000 inhabitants)

U K B E L G I U M

Built-up land Unnecessary built-up land

D E N S I T Y C O M P A R I S O N O F U K A N D B E L G I U M

UK’s density projected on Belgium: space for 17.000.000 inhabitants instead of the 11.000.000 dd. 2015

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: Eurostats

T H E W O R L D P O P U L A T I O N C O U L D F I T I N T E X A S

*

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: Country of Cities | * 25 units per acre = ± 60 units per hectare

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Malta 13.27Belgium

Netherlands7.377.33

LiechtensteinGermany

LuxembourgCyprus

DenmarkUnited Kingdom

Czech RepublicHungaryPortugal

ItalyFrance

5.765.07

4.93.623.53

3.343.193.163.10

2.812.77

SwitzerlandPoland

SlovakiaCroatia

LithuaniaAustria

SloveniaBulgaria

SerbiaAverage

RomaniaIreland

SpainGreeceLatvia

Former Yugoslav Rep. of MacedoniaEstoniaTurkey

MontenegroAlbaniaFinland

SwedenNorwayIceland

Bosnia and Herzegovina

2.672.362.35

2.112.001.921.841.841.821.81

1.611.59

1.421.35

1.11

0.870.870.810.77

0.620.51

0.370.200.15

1.09

S E A L E D S U R F A C E S I N E U R O P E

% of total land area

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: Eurostats, 2012

4

5

31

Very unfavourable Moderately favourable Favourable

9

1034

6

Very unfavourable Moderately favourable Favourable Unknown

9

1034

6

Very unfavourable Moderately favourable Favourable Unknown

H A B I T A T T Y P E S - F A U N A & F L O R A

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: INBO - Natuurindicatoren, 2013

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

In Belgium, migrating animals encounter man-made roads every 300m on average, resulting in a death rate of 8 million every year. | Source: Natuurpunt

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Advertisement for car insurance

Human-based activities

30 % 2,8 %

E C O S Y S T E M B A L A N C E

M I N I M U M F L A N D E R S

Human-free space

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


R E C O R D S & P R O B L E M S

• CO2 uitstoot• % bebouwde oppervlakte• waterdichte oppervlakte• mobiliteit:

• uren file per werknemer• onmogelijk openbaar vervoer• auto ongelukken • thuiszorg

• infrastructuur en overheidsuitgaven :• km weg per wooneenheid• km riolering• km waterleiding• km gasbuis• km kabel voor electro, telefoon, data, tv• glasvezel ??? • aantal politici en ambtenaren per 1000 inwoners • belastingaftrekbare bedrijfswagens • hoogste belastingstarieven ter wereld• energie-intensiteit• gesubsidieerde versnippering via vaste aansluitingskost

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

M Y T H E 3

-

H E T P L A T T E L A N D I S

E C O L O G I S C H E R

G E Z O N D E R

G O E D K O P E R

V E I L I G E R

. . .

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

M I L I E U - I M P A C T B E R E K E N I N G

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

KULeuven research - prof. dr. Karen Allacker & Damien Trigaux - 2016

3

DAMIEN TRIGAUX | 14.04.16

[RESULTATEN]MILIEU-IMPACTBEREKENING

+3% -23%

• verkeersslachtoffers, • infrastructuur, • strooizouten, • mobiliteit,• thuiszorg, • etc.

Model 1Vrijstaand

Passief

Model 219e eeuw Rijwoning

Niet Geïsoleerd

Model 319e eeuw Rijwoning

Licht Geïsoleerd

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

KULeuven research - prof. dr. Karen Allacker & Damien Trigaux - 2016

2

DAMIEN TRIGAUX | 14.04.16

[RESULTATEN]3 MODELLEN

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3

Woningtype Vrijstaand Rijwoning Rijwoning

Isolatieniveau Passief Niet geïsoleerd Licht geïsoleerd (enkel dakisolatie)

Type Glas Driedubbele beglazing Enkel glas Thermisch verbeterd dubbelglas

Ligging Buitengebied Stedelijk gebied rond Brussel Stedelijk gebied rond Brussel

VRIJSTAANDE WONINGEN

V/T = 0.19

RIJWONINGEN

V/T = 0.58

50 10 km 50 10 km

5 . 3 m i l l i o n 7 , 6 9 2 k m 2 6 . 9 t o n n e s 5 m i l l i o n 6 4 8 k m 2 1 . 1 6 t o n n e s

T R A N S P O R T E M I S S I O N S

A T L A N T A B A R C E L O N A

Population Urban area Transport carbon emission p.c. Population Urban area Transport carbon

emission p.c.

More compact development can reduce transport emissions by order of magnitude

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source : LSE Cities, 2014

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

A V E R A G E C A R B O N E M I S S I O N S P E R H O U S E H O L D B Y S E L E C T E D N E I G H B O R H O O D T Y P E S

Source: Country of Cities

Chicago

New Yo

rk City

Wallon

ia

Los Ange

les

San

Franci

sco

Manha

ttan

Fland

ers

Brussels

Region

0

446905 2 195 6 422 10 204 25 846 202 6 238

20

40

60

80

100%

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Inhabitants/km2Inhabitants/km2

Public transport commuting Car-based commutingBiking or walking commuting

R E L A T I O N B E T W E E N D E N S I T Y A N D C O M M U T I N G

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Various data

A V E R A G E D I S T A N C E S T R A V E L E D B Y C A R F O R S E L E C T E D A C T I V I T I E S

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

C O M M U T I N G D I S T A N C E A F F E C T P R E V A L E N C E O F O B E S I T Y


R O M A N C E A N D C O M M U T I N G T I M E

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: Metro, 28/05/2015

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

New York Co, NY

Kings Co, NY

Bronx Co, NY

San Francisco, CA

Queens Co, NY

Hudson Co, NJ

Philadelphia, PA

Su�olk Co, MA

Richmond Co, NY

Baltimore City, MD

Stockes Co, NC

Miami Co, KS

Davie Co, NC

Isanti Co, MN

Walton Co, NC

Yadkin Co, NC

Goochland Co, VA

Fulton Co, OH

Clinton Co, MI

Geauga Co, OH

Annual tra�c death per 100.000 pop.

A N N U A L T R A F F I C D E A T H R A T E S

Smartest growth

Most sprawled

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: Ewing, Shieber and Zegeer, 2003

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Slicker City

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: www.citylab.com

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Source: www.thecostofsprawl.com, 2013

D E N S I T Y A N D P R O D U C T I V I T Y

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


J O B D E N S I T Y A N D P E R C A P I T A I N N O V A T I O N R A T E

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


W H E R E A M E R I C A N P R O S P E R I T Y I S P R O D U C E D

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


C O M M U T I N G D I S T A N C E A F F E C T S L E V E L S O F P H Y S I C A L A C T I V I T Y

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

U I T D A G I N G E N

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

1985

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

35

?

E V O L U T I O N O F I N H A B I T A N T S P E R H E C T A R E O F B U I L T L A N D I N F L A N D E R S

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

DMmagazine - 5 maart 2016, p. 113

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

De Morgen - 13 maart 2016, p. 8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

14

E U T A R G E T F O R F L A N D E R S : D A I L Y I N C R E A S E O F B U I LT S U R F A C E = 0 B Y 2 0 5 0

Hectare per day

Existing data EU target Ideal target Business as usual

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


C O N T I N U O U S E C O S Y S T E M

30% of Flanders total area projected on the territory

+/- 200 km long by 20 km wide

+ / - 4 0 0 0 K M 2

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK


O P P O R T U N I T E I T E N V O O R L E V E N S K W A L I T E I T

• verouderd patrimonium in dorpen en steden

• migratie

• vergrijzing

• gezondheidszorg

• armoede

• biodiversiteit

• mobiliteit

• defragmentatie van de open ruimte

• landbouw & lokale productie

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

“Er wacht ons potentieel de meeste rendabele vastgoedoperatie van de volgende decennia.”

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

U R B A N I T Y

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

BOGDAN & VAN BROECK

Sprawl vs. compact urban areas

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