Post on 31-Mar-2015
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management - April 17, 2002
Naar een duurzame energiehuishoudin
gProf. Dr. Wim C. Turkenburg
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Energie en duurzame ontwikkeling
• Beschikbaarheid van energiedragers • Toegankelijkheid tot energiebronnen• Betaalbaarheid van energie• Betrouwbaarheid van de
energievoorziening• Kwetsbaarheid van de
energievoorziening• Milieugevolgen van ons energiegebruik
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Sustainable Energy:Energy that is produced and used in ways that simultaneously support human development over the long-term in all its social, economic, and environmental dimensions.
Source: World Energy Assessment, 2000
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Strategie
• Benutting lokale energiebronnen• Verbetering efficiency van ons
energie- en materiaalgebruik• Ontwikkeling en gebruik
hernieuwbare energiebronnen• Milieuvriendelijker gebruik van
conventionele bronnen
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Transitiemanagement
• Vergt een overheid die niet terugtreedt
• Is meer dan initiëren van enkele projecten
• Vergt een systeembenadering• Vergt maatschappelijk draagvlak• Vergt internationale samenwerking• Vergt middelen voor R,D,D&D
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
World primary energy consumption in 1998
Fossil fuels: 320 EJ (80%) - oil 142 EJ - natural gas 85 EJ - coal 93 EJ______________________________________________________________________________________________
Renewables: 56 EJ (14%) - large hydro 9 EJ - traditional biomass 38 EJ - ‘new’ renewables 9 EJ______________________________________________________________________________________________
Nuclear: 26 EJ (6%)______________________________________________________________________________________________
Total: 402 EJ (100%)Source: World Energy Assessment, 2000
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Productivity of our energy consumption
EJ %
Primary energy
400 100
Final energy
300 75
Useful energy
150 37
Energy service
<60 <15
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Outlook for More Efficient Use of
Energy• Cost effective over the next 20
years to reduce primary energy consumed per unit of energy services
• OECD Countries 25-35%• Developing Countries 30- >45%• Economies in transition >40%
• Greater gains in efficiency feasible with advanced energy technologies that offer multiple benefits
Source: World Energy Assessment, 2000
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
ICARUS-4
Primary energy consumption
1995
Reference primary energy consumption
2020 (frozen efficiency)
PJ PJ % Mt CO2 Industry 1177 2189 23% 28.6 Agriculture 207 300 41% 7.0 Services 422 924 45% 23.4 Households 427 667 57% 22.6 Transportation 582 704 42% 20.6 Refineries + cokes 237 277 14% 2.3Total Final demand 3051 5061 35% 104.6
Technical reduction potential
2020
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
ICARUS-4Technical savings potential
1995-2020
-30-20-10
01020304050
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Cumulative primary energy saved (%)
Sp
ecif
ic c
osts
(€/G
J)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Contribution ‘new renewables’
1998 share in world primary energy consumption __________________________________________
- Modern biomass: ~ 7 EJ - Geothermal: 1.8 EJ - Small hydro: 0.3 EJ - Wind turbines: 0.07 EJ - Low temp. solar energy: 0.05 EJ - Solar Thermal Electricity: 0.004 EJ - Solar PV: 0.002 EJ
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Total: ~ 9 EJ
Source: Wim C. Turkenburg et al, WEA, 2000
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Elektriciteitsproductie uit duurzame bronnen in Nederland 1990-2000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Ele
ktric
iteit
uit d
uurz
ame
bron
nen
(TW
h)
Waterkracht 85 GWhAndere biomassa
84 GWh Wind 54 GWh
Org. fracties avi’s500 GWh
PV 0.31 GWh
Waterkracht 142 GWh
Andere biomassa 655 GWh
Wind 829 GWh
Org. fractie avi’s918 GWh
PV 7 GWh
1990
2000
Bron: Duurzame energie in Nederland, Novem, 1998, 2000
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Technical Potential Renewables
Supply in 1998
Technical potential
Biomass 45 ± 10 EJ
200-500 EJ/y
Wind 0.07 EJ
70-180 EJ/y
Solar 0.06 EJ
1,500-50,000 EJ/y
Hydro 9.3 EJ
50 EJ/y
Geothermal
1.8 EJ
5,000 EJ/y
Marine - n.e.
Source: W.C. Turkenburg, Utrecht University, 2002
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Potential contribution renewables
Scenario C1
Scenario C2
1850 1900 1950
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2050 2100
1850 1900 1950
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2050 2100
Oil
Gas
Oil
Gas
Coal
Other
Solar
Traditional renewables
Other
Nuclear
Solar
Biomass
BiomassNuc.
Traditional renewables
Hydro
Hydro
Coal
Percent
Percent
Source: N. Nakićenović et.al., WEA, 2000
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Biomass energy conversion
Sources:
- plantations
- forests residues
- agricultural residues
- municipal waste
- animal manure
- etcetera
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
2000 (PJ) 2020 (PJ)
Energieteelt 0.04 0-20
Schone reststromen
(b.v. Snoeihout, bermgras)
20 4-40
Omstreden reststromen
(b.v. varkensmest, rioolslib)
15 3-50
Gemengde afvalstromen
(b.v. organische factie huish. Afval)
48 42-51
Totaal 83 49-160
Bron: Marsroutestudie, Novem, 2000
Mogelijke beschikbaarheid
biomassa- en afvalstromen, nu en in 2020
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Biomass energy conversion
• Production of heat:improved stoves, advanced domestic heating systems, CHP.
• Production of electricity:(co-)combustion, CHP, gasification (BIG-CC, engines), digestion (gas engines).
• Production of fuels:ethanol, biogas, bio-oil, bio-crude, esters from oilseeds, methanol, hydrogen, hydrocarbons.
Produced by: extraction, fermentation, digestion, pyrolysis, hydrolysis, gasification and synthesis.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Status biomass energy
• Cost biomass from plantation: already favorable in some developing countries (1.5-2 $/GJ).
• Electricity production costs at present often: 0.05-0.15 $/kWh.
• New technology (BIG-CC) may reduce electricity production costs to 0.04 $/kWh.
• Advanced technologies needed to produce bio-fuels (methanol, hydrogen, ethanol) at competitive cost (6-10 $/GJ).
Source: W.C. Turkenburg et.al., WEA, 2000
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Biomass energy development strategies
• More experience with, and improvement of, the production of energy crops.
• Creating markets for biomass.• Development and demonstration of key
conversion technologies.• Poly-generation of biomass products
and energy carriers from biomass.• Policy measures like internalizing
external costs and benefits.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Gasification and gas cleaning
Reforming, Shifting, CO2 separation
Methanol production
Fischer Tropsch
Gas separation
Pore enlargement
Ethanol
Drying and Chipping
Chipping
Gas Turbine or boiler
Steam Turbine
Biomass Electricity
Gas Turbine or boiler
Steam Turbine
Electricity
Methanol
Diesel
Hydrogen
Hydrolysis Fermentation
Biofuels for transportation
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Modern wind energy
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Future development wind
• Wind turbines become larger.• Wind turbines will have fewer components.• Special offshore designs.• 10 percent grid penetration maybe around
2020.• Installed capacity in 2030 could be 1,000 –
2,000 GW.• Potential development energy production
costs: 0.05 –> 0.03 $/kWh (+ 0.01 $/kWh for storage).
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Experience curves
20000
10000
5000
1000
100
10 100 1000 10000 100000
1982
1987
1963
1980
Windmills (USA)(learning rate ~ 20%)
RD&D phase
Commercializationphase
USAJapan
Cumulative MW installed
19811983
500
Photovoltaics(learning rate ~ 20%)
Gas turbines (USA)(learning rate ~ 20%, ~10%)
US
(199
0)$
/kW
1995
1992
200
2000
Source: IIASA, 1998
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Solar PV stand-alone systems
• consumer products• telecom• leisure• water pumping• lighting & signalling• rural electrification• etc.
PV-pumped cattle drinking trough (NL)
Solar Home System
(Bolivia)
Source: W.C. Sinke, ECN, NL, 2001
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Grid-connected PV systems
• building- & infrastructure-integrated PV– roofs– facades– sound barriers– etc.
• ground-based power plants
“City of the Sun” 50,000 m2 PV (NL)
PV sound barrier (NL)“PV gold” (Japan)
Source: W.C. Sinke, ECN, NL, 2001
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
PV systems
user
PV
griddc/ac grid-connected PV system
user
PV
regulator
(storage)
stand-alone PV system
Source: Wim C. Sinke, ECN, 2001
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
0
50
100
150
200
250
300M
Wp
/yr
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
year
- Average growth: 18% per year
- Market 1999:
85% c-Si / 13% a-Si / 2% rest
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Potential development Solar PV
• Investment costs grid-connected PV-systems may come down from 5-10 $/W –> 1 $/W.
• Energy payback time may come down from 3-9 years –> 1-2 years (or less).
• Electricity production costs may come down from 0.3-2.5 $/kWh –> 0.05-0.25 $/kWh.
• PV can play major role in rural electrification.
Source: W.C. Turkenburg et.al., WEA, 2000
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Major options to reduce costs
• Increase conversion efficiency (of the cell, the module and the system).
• Strong reduction in material use (thin film solar cell development).
• Mass production of PV components (module plants of 50-100 MWp/year).
• Reduction Balance-of-System costs (e.g. multi-functional use of PV area).
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Energy losses in PV systems
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Zand
voor
t
REMU/SCW
Nieuw
Slot
en
Arthur
And
erse
n
Thom
dur
a
Eneco
1
Eneco
2
Wou
dhuis
%
Static MPPT andinverterdynamic MPPT
diode
DC cableresistance
mismatch
temperature
low irradiation
spectrum
reflection
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Energy Pay Back Time (yr) of present PV systems
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
mc-Si roof
thin film roof
mc-Si ground
thin filmground
mc-Si roof
thin film roof
mc-Si ground
thin filmground
Module Module frame Supports
Medium-high irradiation(1700 kWh/m2/yr)
Low Irradiation(1100 kWh/m2/yr)
Bron: Alsema & Nieuwlaar, Energy Policy, 2000
Energy analysis of photovoltaic systems
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Toekomstig werk PV-milieu
• LCA van geavanceerde kristallijn-silicium technologie
• LCA van energie-opslagsystemen• leercurves van PV systemen• monitoring van decentrale PV
systemen m.b.v. sattelietdata (voor instraling)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management
CO2 capture options
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Transition Management