The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital...

91
The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC) Perspective 1957-1998. 41 yrs., 4 generations: transistor, IC, VLSI, clusters - winner take all How computer classes formand die. Not dealing with technology =change = disruption Gordon Bell 11 October 2006

Transcript of The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital...

Page 1: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

The

Birt

h an

d P

assi

ng o

f Min

icom

pute

rs:

From

A D

igita

l Equ

ipm

ent C

orp.

(DE

C) P

ersp

ectiv

e

1957

-199

8. 4

1 yr

s., 4

gen

erat

ions

: tra

nsis

tor,

IC, V

LSI,

clus

ters

-w

inne

r tak

e al

l

How

com

pute

r cla

sses

form

�an

d di

e.

Not

dea

ling

with

tech

nolo

gy =

chan

ge =

dis

rupt

ion

Gor

don

Bel

l 11

Oct

ober

200

6

Page 2: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

On

His

tory

�1.

"God

alo

ne k

now

s th

e fu

ture

, but

onl

y an

his

toria

n ca

n al

ter t

hepa

st."

--A

mbr

ose

Bie

rce

2."A

his

toria

n w

ho w

ould

con

vey

the

truth

mus

t lie

. Ofte

n he

mus

t en

larg

e th

e tru

th b

y di

amet

ers,

oth

erw

ise

his

read

er w

ould

not

be

able

to s

ee it

."--M

ark

Twai

n3.

"The

pas

t is

mal

leab

le a

nd fl

exib

le, c

hang

ing

as o

ur re

colle

ctio

n in

terp

rets

and

re-e

xpla

ins

wha

t has

hap

pene

d." -

-Pet

er B

erge

r4.

"His

tory

, a d

istil

latio

n of

rum

our."

--T

hom

as C

arly

le5.

"Any

one

who

bel

ieve

s yo

u ca

n't c

hang

e hi

stor

y ha

s ne

ver t

ried

tow

rite

his

mem

oirs

." _

-Dav

id B

en G

urio

n6.

"No

harm

's d

one

to h

isto

ry b

y m

akin

g it

som

ethi

ng s

omeo

ne w

ould

w

ant t

o re

ad."

--D

avid

McC

ullo

ugh

7."H

isto

ry is

the

pres

ent.

That

's w

hy e

very

gen

erat

ion

writ

es it

ane

w.

But

wha

t mos

t peo

ple

thin

k of

as

hist

ory

is it

s en

d pr

oduc

t, m

yth.

" --

E.L

. Doc

toro

w8.

"Peo

ple

alw

ays

seem

ed to

kno

w h

alf o

f his

tory

, and

to g

et it

co

nfus

ed w

ith th

e ot

her h

alf."

--J

ane

Had

dam

9."A

ll hi

stor

y be

com

es s

ubje

ctiv

e; in

oth

er w

ords

ther

e is

pro

perly

no

hist

ory,

onl

y bi

ogra

phy.

" --

Ral

ph W

aldo

Em

erso

n

Page 3: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Dig

ital�s

Tria

ls b

y Te

chno

logy

�W

ith ti

me,

�hig

h�te

ch b

ecom

es a

com

mod

ity.

�DE

C fo

und

guilt

y of

vio

latin

g M

oore

�s L

aw �

��gb

ell

1.D

esig

ning

and

bui

ldin

g fir

st tr

ansi

stor

circ

uits

.1957

-196

5

2.Tr

ansi

tion

to in

tegr

ated

circ

uits

& m

odul

o 8

bits

1965

-197

5

3.D

esig

n w

ith V

LSI;

man

ufac

turin

g V

LSI 1

975-

2002

4.D

esig

n of

�clu

ster

s� a

s th

e ul

timat

e co

mpu

ter 1

983-

????

5.Q

uadr

uple

wha

mm

y c1

983

��k

iller

� mic

ros,

UN

IX:

PC

, Wor

ksta

tions

, CM

OS

AN

D U

NIX

, as

�sta

ndar

ds�

Any

one

can

man

ufac

ture

r com

pute

rs in

thei

r dor

m!

�You

mea

n to

say

, our

new

EC

L m

ainf

ram

e is

not

eq

ual t

o ou

r lat

est C

MO

S c

hip?

� �K

en O

lsen

c19

906.

Fail

to e

xplo

it: n

etw

orks

, WW

W, p

rinte

rs, c

lust

ers�

Page 4: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

http

://re

sear

ch.m

icro

soft.

com

/use

rs/g

bell/

Dig

ital/D

EC

Mus

eum

.htm

1.B

ell�s

Law

that

ope

ns th

e pa

ge a

nd is

on

my

page

and

Wik

iped

ia. I

will

ope

n w

ith a

bit

abou

t law

s.2.

Com

pute

r, O

ctob

er 1

984

that

giv

es th

e co

min

g an

d go

ing

of th

e 10

0 m

ini c

ompa

nies

. 198

4 w

as th

e tim

e of

tra

nsiti

on to

mic

ros.

Sta

rtups

use

d U

NIX

and

mic

ros

that

had

per

form

ance

com

petit

ive

with

min

is.

Als

o no

te m

y ar

ticle

in S

cien

ce o

n �M

ultis

� is

impo

rtant

bec

ause

it b

ecam

e th

e st

anda

rd g

0t c

ompu

ters

.3.

List

ing

of M

inic

ompu

ter c

ompa

nies

196

0-19

84 a

nd s

uper

-min

icom

pute

r and

min

i-sup

erco

mpu

ter c

ompa

nies

19

84-1

995.

4.D

igita

l 41

Year

His

tory

CD

publ

ishe

d 30

Apr

il, 1

998

with

key

eve

nts

and

timel

ine.

.. w

ith p

hoto

s an

d fa

cts

abou

t m

achi

nes

(alp

ha to

PD

P-1

), m

odul

e, th

e m

ill, a

nd p

eopl

e!A

nic

e re

fere

nce

with

tim

e, b

ulle

ts, a

nd p

hoto

s.5.

CO

MPU

TER

EN

GIN

EER

ING

Bell,

C. G

., C

. Mud

ge, J

. McN

amar

a,, D

igita

l Pre

ss 1

978

has

the

orig

in o

f DE

C

from

the

circ

uits

that

cam

e fro

m M

IT L

inco

ln L

abor

ator

y.It

has

the

stor

y of

how

the

PD

P-5

was

cre

ated

as

a co

mpo

nent

. PD

P-5

beg

ot th

e P

DP

-8 th

at w

as th

e �c

lass

ic� o

r arc

hety

pica

l min

i.Th

e sa

me

stor

y ca

n be

told

ab

out m

icro

s as

com

pone

nts.

6.Th

e Be

ll A

ppen

dix

for E

dgar

H. S

chei

n's

book

�DE

C is

Dea

d, L

ong

Live

DE

C�B

eret

t-Koe

hler

Pub

lishe

rs, S

an

Fran

cisc

o, 2

003.

The

app

endi

x de

scrib

es B

ell's

vie

w o

f Wha

t Hap

pene

d su

ch th

at D

igita

l was

firs

t sol

d to

C

ompa

q in

199

8 an

d th

ento

HP

in 2

002.

Dig

ital a

ka D

EC

was

onl

y 41

yea

rs o

ld.

It ha

s so

me

tech

nolo

gy, b

ut it

is

man

agem

ent t

oo.

I am

not

a fa

n of

Chr

istia

n�s

use

of D

EC a

s th

e po

ster

chi

ld to

illust

rate

Inno

vato

r�s

Dile

mm

a or

dis

rupt

ive

tech

nolo

gy�

7.N

ote

the

VA

X S

trate

gy, s

imila

r to

the

IBM

360

pla

n, a

nd th

en S

un�s

�All

the

woo

d be

hind

one

arro

w�.

8.N

ote

the

trans

ition

to d

istri

bute

d co

mpu

ting

and

the

Ethe

rnet

pre

sent

atio

n. T

he c

ompl

ete

Ethe

rnet

A

nnou

ncem

ent b

y B

ell (

Dig

ital),

Noy

ce (I

ntel

), an

d Li

ddle

(Xer

ox) s

lides

and

scr

ipt (

PD

F 7M

B) w

as m

ade

in

New

Yor

k C

ity o

n Fe

brua

ry 1

0, 1

982

by th

e D

IX g

roup

, fol

low

ed b

yan

noun

cem

ents

in A

mst

erda

m, a

nd L

ondo

n.

Not

e m

y pr

esen

tatio

n in

clud

ed: "

the

netw

ork

beco

mes

the

syst

em"..

. Can

you

reca

ll a

sim

ilar m

antra

that

SU

N

Mic

rosy

stem

s la

ter a

ppro

pria

ted?

9.S

ee th

e th

ree

artic

les

on th

e P

DP

-11

on �t

he a

ddre

ss s

pace

pro

blem

�: a.

Bell,

C. G

� a

nd W

. Wul

f, "A

New

Arc

hite

ctur

e fo

r Min

i-Com

pute

rs --

The

DE

C P

DP

-11,

SJC

C, p

p. 6

57-6

75

(197

0).

b.W

hat w

e le

arne

d fro

m th

e P

DP

-11,

pub

lishe

d by

mys

elf a

nd B

ill S

treck

er in

197

5.

c.R

etro

spec

tive

on th

e P

DP

-11

Bill

Stre

cker

with

a re

trosp

ectiv

e ab

out V

AX a

nd A

lpha

, 199

5.

10.

Fam

ily T

ree

of D

igita

l's C

ompu

ters

Pos

ter c

reat

ed in

198

0, s

how

s th

e ev

olut

ion

of a

ll of

all

com

pute

r mod

els

and

times

they

wer

e in

trodu

ced

sinc

e 19

60�

my

favo

rite

way

to re

pres

ent h

isto

ryB

ob S

upni

k ha

s si

mul

ator

s fo

r the

DEC

mac

hine

s P

aper

s on

Sim

ulat

ion

and

His

toric

Sys

tem

s.

Sea

rchi

ng fo

r spe

cific

mac

hine

s an

d pe

ople

usu

ally

get

a lo

t mor

e th

an y

ou w

ant o

r nee

d. E

.g.

http

://w

ww

.pdp

8.or

g/, w

ww

.pdp

11.o

rgw

ww

.pdp

10.o

rg, w

ww

.vax

.org

are

site

s ab

out s

peci

fic m

inis

incl

udin

g si

mul

ator

s.ht

tp://

en.w

ikip

edia

.org

/wik

i/Dig

ital_

Equ

ipm

ent_

Cor

pora

tion

lists

all

the

mac

hine

fam

ilies.

Page 5: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

The

41 y

ear l

ife a

nd tr

ials

of

Dig

ital E

quip

men

t Cor

p. a

ka D

EC

�19

60: B

irth

of D

EC fr

om M

IT L

inco

ln L

ab�

its

evol

utio

n�

1965

-198

4+?:

Birt

h an

d de

ath

of th

e m

inic

ompu

ter i

ndus

trybu

ilt w

ith L

SI t

o be

repl

aced

by

mul

tiple

, mic

ropr

oces

sors

�Th

eory

: Bel

l�s L

aw (o

f Com

pute

r Cla

sses

)�

1978

: VA

X a

nd th

e V

AX

Stra

tegy

to b

ecom

e nu

mbe

r 2�

1985

-: P

Cs,

wor

ksta

tions

, �ki

ller m

icro

s� a

nd s

tand

ards

take

on

all

com

ers

�Th

e D

EC

Org

aniz

atio

n an

d C

ultu

re...

Wha

t hap

pene

d?�

Sum

mar

y�

�S

torie

s�

PDP-

1; IT

T St

ore

& Fo

rwar

d Sw

itch�

UA

RT

�PD

P-6

from

PD

P-3.

Com

pile

r�

PDP-

5 ho

w it

was

cre

ated

& P

DP-

8�

PDP

-11

at C

MU

�VA

X a

nd V

AX S

trate

gy�

add

ress

bit

prob

lem

�Et

hern

et D

IX, L

iddl

e,

Page 6: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Dig

ital�s

aka

DE

C�s

Orig

in a

nd P

lan

1957

: Ken

Ols

en, H

arla

n A

nder

son,

Sta

n O

lsen

--le

ave

MIT

�s L

inco

ln L

abor

ator

y as

tran

sist

or

circ

uit a

nd c

ompu

ter d

esig

ners

; col

lect

$70

K

from

Am

eric

an R

esea

rch

and

Dev

elop

men

t �V

CB

usin

ess

plan

: des

ign,

man

ufac

ture

, sel

l log

ic

mod

ules

� a

nd e

vent

ually

use

the

earn

ings

and

m

odul

es fo

r bui

ldin

g co

mpu

ters

See

als

o w

ww

.com

pute

rhis

tory

.org

http

://re

sear

ch.m

icro

soft.

com

/use

rs/g

bell/

Dig

ital/D

ECM

useu

m.h

tm

Mov

ie c

eleb

ratin

g th

e P

DP

-1 B

irth,

Spa

cew

ar, e

tc.

http

://w

ww

.com

pute

rhis

tory

.org

/eve

nts/

inde

x.ph

p?id

=114

2978

073

Page 7: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Som

e Fi

nanc

ial &

Siz

e, D

ates

, Fac

toid

s19

57: F

ound

ed @

$70

K. 5

Mhz

logi

c m

odul

es. P

rofit

able

1st

yr

@$9

4K. 6

0p. K

en O

lsen

, CE

O &

Ben

Gur

ley,

PD

P-1

@$1

4K19

59: M

emor

y te

st e

quip

men

t usi

ng s

yste

m m

odul

es;

1960

: 1st. P

DP

-1de

liver

y to

BB

N;

1964

: $1.

8M R

&D

, 1/6

of r

even

ue19

65: $

15M

. PD

P-5

(the

Min

i), P

DP

-6 (T

imes

harin

g);1

966:

$23

M;

1971

: $14

7M. P

DP

-11;

197

2: 7

.8K

p, $

200M

; 197

7: $

1B38

Kp;

19

78: V

AX

& V

AX

Stra

tegy

;197

9: $

1.8b

; 198

0: 2

00K

C, $

2B;

1982

: VA

X C

lust

ers.

$4B

, 369

KC

, 67K

p, F

ortu

ne 1

37th; 1

984:

$5B

, 19

88 1

20K

p la

rges

t in

MA

&N

H; 6

2 co

untri

es, 4

75 s

ales

offi

ces

$11.

4B re

venu

e, $

1.3

billi

on in

net

pro

fits,

mar

ket c

ap $

23.9

bi

llion

(10t

h in

US

), Fo

rtune

38.

NU

MB

ER

2!

1992

: Alp

ha, B

ob P

alm

er, f

orm

er V

P D

EC

Sem

is, a

ppoi

nted

CE

O19

98: C

ompa

q A

cqui

res

DE

C @

age

41.

All

exce

ptP

alm

er lo

se!

2002

: HP

acq

uire

s C

ompa

q.

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Firs

t DE

C B

uild

ing

Blo

cks

and

Logi

c M

odul

es

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PD

P-1

pro

toty

pe w

ith

sepa

rate

con

sole

. 18

bit

wor

d� p

atte

rned

afte

r Li

ncol

n La

b TX

-0

40 w

ere

sold

ITT:

mes

sage

sw

itchi

ng

Page 11: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS
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PD

P-5

Initi

al d

esig

n w

as fo

r da

ta c

olle

ctio

n fo

r an

expe

rimen

tal r

eact

or

in C

anad

a� A

/D, I

/O

bus,

12-

bit w

ord

Page 13: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Bus

ines

s W

eek

Bus

ines

s W

eek,

M

arch

196

4(r

ecal

l 4/7

/196

4)

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DE

C F

amily

Tre

e 19

57-1

980

60x70x80

PDP-

1,4

�15

18-b

it

PDP-

6�10

Firs

t

Com

mer

cial

Tim

e-sh

arin

g

PDP-

8 (1

2 bi

ts)

esta

blis

hed

The

clas

s of

Min

icom

pute

rs

PDP-

11�

16 b

its

VAX

32 b

its

VLSI

Page 16: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

18 b

it an

d 12

bit

fam

ily

Page 17: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

The

41 y

ear l

ife a

nd tr

ials

of

Dig

ital E

quip

men

t Cor

p. a

ka D

EC

�19

60: B

irth

of D

EC

from

MIT

Lin

coln

Lab

� it

s ev

olut

ion

�19

65-1

984+

?: B

irth

and

deat

h of

the

min

icom

pute

r ind

ustr

ySh

ift to

8 b

it w

ord

with

intr

oduc

tion

of th

e IB

M S

yste

m 3

60.

�Th

eory

: Bel

l�s L

aw (o

f Com

pute

r Cla

sses

)�

1978

: VA

X a

nd th

e V

AX

Stra

tegy

to b

ecom

e nu

mbe

r 2�

1985

-: P

Cs,

wor

ksta

tions

, �ki

ller m

icro

s� a

nd s

tand

ards

take

on

all c

omer

s �

The

DE

C O

rgan

izat

ion

and

Cul

ture

... W

hat h

appe

ned?

�Su

mm

ary�

�St

orie

s�

PD

P-1

; ITT

Sto

re &

For

war

d Sw

itch�

UA

RT

�P

DP

-6 fr

om P

DP

-3. C

ompi

ler

�P

DP

-5 h

ow it

was

cre

ated

& P

DP

-8�

PD

P-1

1 at

CM

U�

VA

X an

d V

AX

Stra

tegy

� a

ddre

ss b

it pr

oble

m�

Eth

erne

t DIX

, Lid

dle,

Page 18: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Tech

/Com

pute

rGen

erat

ions

�19

47 T

rans

isto

r�

1958

IC�

1971

400

4 M

icro

proc

esso

r�

1960

1st

Tran

s. C

omp.

; 64�

8bi

ts�

1979

-83

Ethe

rnet

/LA

Ns

(DIX

)�

1966

1st

IC C

ompu

ters

�19

65-8

5+ M

ini e

ra (1

00 c

ompa

nies

)�

1975

1st

Mic

ro-c

ompu

ters

�19

81,4

IB

M P

C, M

AC

; u�s

& U

NIX

�19

88 �

clus

ters

= th

e co

mpu

ter

�19

92 �

WW

W;1

000s

of m

icro

s�

1960

DEC

PD

P-1

�19

65 D

EC P

DP-

5 (m

ini a

rche

type

); D

EC P

DP-

6 (ti

mes

harin

g)�

1970

, 75

DEC

PD

P-11

,LSI

-11

�19

78; 8

4; 9

2 D

EC V

AX;

uVA

X , A

lpha

�19

82 D

EC P

Cs

�19

83 D

EC V

AX

Clu

ster

s..V

AX

stra

tgy

�19

92 D

ECA

ltavi

sta

Page 19: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Min

icom

pute

r def

initi

ons

c197

0, 7

1w

ith in

trodu

ctio

n of

PD

P-1

1

Min

icom

pute

rs (f

or m

inim

al c

ompu

ters

) are

a s

tate

of m

ind;

the

curre

nt

logi

c te

chno

logy

, �, a

re c

ombi

ned

into

a p

acka

ge w

hich

has

the

smal

lest

co

st. A

lmos

t the

sol

e de

sign

goa

l is

to m

ake

the

cost

low

; �. A

ltern

ativ

ely

stat

ed: t

he h

ardw

are-

softw

are

trade

offs

for m

inic

ompu

ter d

esig

n ha

ve, i

n th

e pa

st, f

avor

ed s

oftw

are.

H

AR

DW

AR

E C

HA

RA

CTE

RIS

TIC

SM

inic

ompu

ter m

ay b

e cl

assi

fied

at le

ast t

wo

way

s:I.

It is

the

min

imum

com

pute

r (or

ver

y ne

ar it

) tha

t can

be

built

with

the

stat

e of

the

art t

echn

olog

y.2.

It is

that

com

pute

r tha

t can

be

purc

hase

d fo

r a g

iven

, rel

ativ

ely

min

imal

, fix

ed c

ost (

e.g.

, $10

K in

197

0).

Page 20: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

91 M

inic

ompu

ter

com

pani

es 1

984

DG

, DE

C, H

P,

IBM

surv

ived

by

1990

X XXX

Page 21: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

PD

P-1

1 to

VA

X

Page 22: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

The

41 y

ear l

ife a

nd tr

ials

of

Dig

ital E

quip

men

t Cor

p. a

ka D

EC

�19

60: B

irth

of D

EC fr

om M

IT L

inco

ln L

ab�

its

evol

utio

n�

1965

-198

4+?:

Birt

h an

d de

ath

of th

e m

inic

ompu

ter i

ndus

try�

Theo

ry: B

ell�s

Law

(of C

ompu

ter C

lass

es)

�19

78: V

AX

and

the

VA

X S

trate

gy to

bec

ome

num

ber 2

�19

85-:

PC

s, w

orks

tatio

ns, �

kille

r mic

ros�

and

sta

ndar

ds ta

ke

on a

ll co

mer

s �

The

DE

C O

rgan

izat

ion

and

Cul

ture

... W

hat h

appe

ned?

�Su

mm

ary�

�S

torie

s�

PDP-

1; IT

T St

ore

& Fo

rwar

d Sw

itch�

UA

RT

�PD

P-6

from

PD

P-3.

Com

pile

r�

PDP-

5 ho

w it

was

cre

ated

& P

DP-

8�

PDP

-11

at C

MU

�VA

X a

nd V

AX S

trate

gy�

add

ress

bit

prob

lem

�Et

hern

et D

IX, L

iddl

e,

Page 23: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Com

putin

g La

ws

Com

putin

g La

ws

Bel

l�s L

aw o

f Com

pute

r Cla

sses

&

thei

r For

mat

ion

the

Que

st�

to m

ove

or e

ncod

e th

e en

tire

wor

ld in

to c

yber

spac

e

Page 24: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Econ

omic

s-ba

sed

law

s de

term

ine

the

mar

ket

�Dem

and:

dou

bles

as

pric

e de

clin

es b

y 20

%�L

earn

ing

curv

es: 1

0-15

% c

ost d

eclin

e w

ith 2

X un

its th

at e

nabl

e M

oore

�s L

aw a

nd o

ther

ha

rdw

are

tech

nolo

gy e

volu

tion

�Bill

�s L

aw fo

r the

eco

nom

ics

of P

C s

oftw

are

�Nat

han�

s La

ws

of S

oftw

are

--th

e vi

rtuo

us

circ

le�M

etca

lfe�s

Law

of t

he �

valu

e of

a n

etw

ork�

�Com

pute

r cla

sses

form

and

evo

lve

just

like

m

odes

of t

rans

port

atio

n, re

stau

rant

s, e

tc.

Page 25: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Softw

are

Econ

omic

s: B

ill�s

Law

Pric

ePr

ice

Fixe

d_co

stFi

xed_

cost

Mar

gina

l _co

stM

argi

nal _

cost

==U

nits

Uni

ts++

�Bill

Joy

�s la

w (S

un):

NO

sof

twar

e fo

r <10

0,00

0 pl

atfo

rms

@$1

0 m

illio

n en

gine

erin

g ex

pens

e, $

1,00

0 pr

ice

�Bill

Gat

e�s

law

: NO

sof

twar

e fo

r <1,

000,

000

plat

form

s @

$10M

eng

inee

ring

expe

nse,

$10

0 pr

ice

�Exa

mpl

es:

�UN

IX v

ersu

s W

indo

ws

NT:

$3,

500

vers

us $

500

�Ora

cle

vers

us S

QL-

Serv

er:

$100

,000

ver

sus

$6,0

00�N

o sp

read

shee

t or p

rese

ntat

ion

pack

on

UN

IX/V

MS/

...�C

omm

oditi

zatio

n of

bas

e so

ftwar

e an

d ha

rdw

are

Page 26: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Innovatio

n

The

Virt

uous

Eco

nom

ic C

ycle

th

at d

rives

the

PC in

dust

ry

Volume

Com

petit

ion

Stan

dard

sUtil

ity/va

lue

Page 27: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

!Tr

ansi

stor

den

sity

dou

bles

ev

ery

18 m

onth

s 60

% in

crea

se p

er y

ear

�C

hip

dens

ity tr

ansi

stor

s/di

e �

Mic

ro p

roce

ssor

spe

eds

!Ex

pone

ntia

l gro

wth

:�

The

past

doe

s no

t mat

ter

�10

x he

re, 1

0x th

ere

�m

eans

REA

L ch

ange

!PC

cos

ts d

eclin

e fa

ster

than

any

oth

er

plat

form

�Vo

lum

e an

d le

arni

ng c

urve

s�

PCs

are

the

build

ing

bric

ks o

f all

futu

re s

yste

ms

Moo

re�s

Firs

t Law

128K

B12

8KB

128M

B12

8MB

2000

2000

8KB

8KB

1MB

1MB

8MB

8MB

1GB

1GB

1970

1970

1980

1980

1990

1990

1M1M16

M16

Mbi

ts:

1Kbi

ts:

1K4K4K

16K

16K

64K

64K

256K

256K

4M4M64

M64

M25

6M25

6M

1 ch

ip m

emor

y si

ze1

chip

mem

ory

size

( 2 M

B to

32

MB

)( 2

MB

to 3

2 M

B)

Page 28: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Com

pute

r com

pone

nts

mus

t al

l evo

lve

at th

e sa

me

rate

�Am

dahl

�s la

w: o

ne in

stru

ctio

n pe

r sec

ond

requ

ires

one

byte

of m

emor

y an

d on

e bi

t per

sec

ond

of I/

O�S

tora

ge e

volv

ed a

t 60%

; afte

r 199

5: 1

00�P

roce

ssor

per

form

ance

evo

lved

at 6

0%.

�Clo

ck P

erfo

rman

ce fl

at >

1995

unt

il m

ulti-

core

s�M

ulti

proc

esso

rs.

�Gra

phic

s Pr

oces

sing

Uni

t to

expl

oit

para

llelis

m�W

ide

Are

a N

etw

ork

spee

d ev

olve

d at

>60

%�L

ocal

Are

a N

etw

ork

spee

d ev

olve

d 26

-60%

� G

rove

�sLa

w:P

lain

Old

Tele

phon

eSe

rvic

e

Page 29: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Com

putin

g La

ws

Com

putin

g La

ws

Min

icom

pute

r pric

e de

clin

e

Page 30: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

The

clas

ses,

san

s ph

ones

, 200

6

year

log (people per computer)

Mai

nfra

me

Min

icom

pute

r

Wor

ksta

tion

PCLa

ptop PD

A??

?

Dav

id C

ulle

r UC

/Ber

kele

y

Page 31: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

The

clas

ses,

san

s ph

ones

, 200

6

year

log (people per computer)

Mai

nfra

me

Min

icom

pute

r

Wor

ksta

tion

PCLa

ptop PD

A??

?

Dav

id C

ulle

r UC

/Ber

kele

y

Sca

labl

e co

mpu

ters

Inte

rcon

nect

ed v

ia IP

Page 32: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Evo

lutio

n of

cla

sses

c 1

985

Sci

ence

Bel

l Vie

w 1

985

with

the

intr

o of

Mul

tis

Page 33: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Cop

yrig

ht G

Bel

l and

J G

ray

1996

33

How

Will

Fut

ure

Com

pute

rs B

e B

uilt?

Thes

is: S

NA

P:Sc

alab

le N

etw

orks

and

Pla

tform

s�

upsi

ze fr

om d

eskt

op to

wor

ld-s

cale

com

pute

r�

base

d on

a fe

w s

tand

ard

com

pone

nts

Bec

ause

: �

Moo

re�s

law

: exp

onen

tial p

rogr

ess

�St

anda

rdiz

atio

n &

com

mod

itiza

tion

�St

ratif

icat

ion

and

com

petit

ion

Whe

n: S

oone

r tha

n yo

u th

ink!

�m

assi

ve s

tand

ardi

zatio

n gi

ves

mas

sive

use

econ

omic

forc

es a

re e

norm

ous

Net

wor

kPl

atfo

rm

Page 34: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Cop

yrig

ht G

Bel

l and

J G

ray

1996

34

Cla

ss c

onfli

ct w

ith S

NA

P

1980

1990

2000

234567 1log(

$)

min

is

mai

nfra

mes

Pock

et o

rgan

izer

& P

DA

x= c

lass

con

flict

wor

ksta

tions

PCs

X XSN

AP

Page 35: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

1,00

0�s

?10

,000

�s ?

100,

000s

?1,

000,

000s

?

Larg

e se

rver

s� n

ew s

ervi

ces

are

adde

d �i

n fl

ight

La

rge

serv

ers�

new

ser

vice

s ar

e ad

ded

�in

flig

ht�

Page 36: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Bel

l�s L

aw o

f C

ompu

ter C

lass

esH

ardw

are

tech

nolo

gy im

prov

emen

ts i.

e. M

oore

�s

Law

for s

emis

,� d

isks

, ena

ble

two

evol

utio

nary

pa

ths(

t) fo

r com

pute

rs:

1. c

onst

ant p

rice,

incr

easi

ng p

erfo

rman

ce

2. C

onst

ant o

r dec

reas

ing

perf

orm

ance

, de

crea

sing

cos

t by

a fa

ctor

O(1

0)X

.. le

adin

g to

new

str

uctu

res

or a

new

com

pute

r cl

ass!

Page 37: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Bel

l�s L

aw o

f C

ompu

ter C

lass

esTe

chno

logy

ena

bles

two

evol

utio

nary

pat

hs:

1. c

onst

ant p

erfo

rman

ce, d

ecre

asin

g co

st2.

con

stan

t pric

e, in

crea

sing

per

form

ance

1.26

= 2

x/3

yrs

1.26

= 2

x/3

yrs

----10

x/de

cade

; 1/1

.26

= .8

10x/

deca

de; 1

/1.2

6 =

.81.

6 =

4x/

3 yr

s 1.

6 =

4x/

3 yr

s ----

100x

/dec

ade;

1/1

.6

= .6

210

0x/d

ecad

e; 1

/1.6

=

.62

Min

iM

ini

????Ti

me

Tim

e

Mai

nfra

mes

(cen

tral

)M

ainf

ram

es (c

entr

al)

PCs

(per

sona

ls)

PCs

(per

sona

ls)

Log price Log price

WSs

WSs

Page 38: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Con

spira

cies

: Why

old

com

pani

es

can�

t cre

ate

new

com

pute

r cla

sses

Page 39: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Pric

e, p

erfo

rman

ce, a

nd c

lass

of

var

ious

goo

ds &

ser

vice

sC

ompu

ter p

rice

= $1

0 x

10

clas

s#

Com

pute

r wei

ght =

.05

x 10

clas

s#

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Page 44: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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Page 45: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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Page 46: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Com

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Page 47: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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Page 48: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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Page 49: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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Page 50: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

PD

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Page 51: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

VA

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Page 52: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

VA

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Page 53: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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Page 54: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

VAX/

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Page 55: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

DE

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Page 56: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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Page 57: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Mot

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Page 58: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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Page 59: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

TTL

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Page 60: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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l Kam

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e

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Four

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:

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The

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ital E

quip

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60: B

irth

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coln

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1965

-198

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h an

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orks

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kille

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ll co

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Cro

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ectio

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EC O

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agem

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dy te

chni

cal

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mun

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eede

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brill

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lead

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don

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l)

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erm

ine

valid

ity

thro

ugh

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te, b

uy-

in th

roug

h co

nsen

sus

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ge b

ets b

y of

ferin

g m

ultip

le p

rodu

cts a

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letti

ng th

e m

arke

t de

cide

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id e

xter

nal

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nden

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tern

al

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sion

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atio

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ketin

g do

ne v

ia D

ECU

S an

d Pr

oduc

t Lin

es; m

uch

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gine

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cus

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er te

chie

s

DEC

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goo

d at

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vativ

e an

d la

ter

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istic

ated

pro

duct

s

DEC

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cally

slow

in

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ng to

mar

ket a

nd n

ot a

lo

w-c

ost p

rodu

cer

DEC

gre

w in

to a

lmos

t ev

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e an

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gmen

t

DEC

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goo

d re

latio

ns w

ith

early

ado

pter

s

DEC

�s P

DP-

8, 1

0,

11, a

nd V

AX

wer

e ve

ry su

cces

sful

DEC

was

pro

fitab

le d

ue to

hi

gh g

row

th a

nd IB

M p

rice

umbr

ella

DEC

�s p

ropr

ieta

ry

suite

of H

W &

SW

w

as v

ery

succ

essf

ul

DEC

was

su

cces

sful

go

ing

it al

one

Mot

ivat

e th

roug

h in

tern

al c

ompe

titio

nTe

chni

cal e

litis

m: w

e ca

n an

d w

ant t

o bu

ild

supe

rior p

rodu

cts

Let/e

ncou

rage

eve

ryon

e to

inno

vate

and

be

entre

pren

euria

lSt

rive

to b

e a

valu

ed

mem

ber o

f the

fam

ily

Mos

t m

arke

ting

is ly

ing

A g

ood

prod

uct

sells

itse

lfW

e ca

n do

itbe

tter t

han

othe

rs

DEC

is a

tigh

t-kni

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divi

dual

istic

, in

war

dly

focu

sed

fam

ily

If yo

u m

ake

good

pr

oduc

ts, m

oney

will

na

tura

lly fo

llow

Ever

yone

is

empo

wer

ed, s

elf-

man

agin

g,eg

alita

rian

We

are

smar

ter t

han

othe

rs

Tech

nolo

gy

driv

es b

usin

ess

MIT

Hon

esty

Fam

ilyPe

rson

al

resp

onsib

ility

Yan

kee

Chr

istia

n V

alue

s

Entre

pren

euria

l I

ndep

ende

nt

Am

eric

an R

ugge

d In

divi

dual

ism

Partn

ersh

ips,

allia

nces

, ou

tsour

cing

, etc

wer

e no

t hig

hly

impo

rtant

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indu

stry

m

oved

qui

te

slow

ly w

ith lo

ng

prod

uct c

ycle

s

IBM

�s p

rovi

ded

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gh

pric

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ella

and

the

mar

ket w

as g

row

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rapi

dly

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ket w

as m

ostly

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rly a

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end-

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pute

rs w

ere

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mer

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th

is e

ra

Prov

ided

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rtesy

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aul K

ampa

s ©A

ll R

ight

s Res

erve

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Sour

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Kam

pas

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earc

h

Page 66: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Wha

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igita

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Page 67: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Thre

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ital a

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icro

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?

Page 68: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

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ibili

ty m

eans

Bei

ng o

n To

p of

One

�s J

ob, a

nd

owni

ng o

ne�s

ow

n P

robl

ems.

(He

who

pla

ns, d

oes.

)4.

�Tru

th th

roug

h C

onfli

ct�a

nd �B

uy-In

�5.

Inte

rnal

Com

petit

ion

and

�Let

the

Mar

ket D

ecid

e�6.

Man

agem

ent b

y P

assi

on, b

ut W

ork

shou

ld b

e Fu

n an

d En

joya

ble.

Ben

ign

Man

ipul

atio

n or

Con

trolle

d C

haos

7.

Per

petu

al L

earn

ing

8.Lo

yalty

and

Life

Tim

e E

mpl

oym

ent

9.M

oral

com

mitm

ent t

o cu

stom

ers

Page 71: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Dig

ital a

ccor

ding

to S

chei

n

�In

divi

dual

ism

�Tr

uth

thro

ugh

conf

lict

�Pe

rson

al re

spon

sibi

lity

�En

gine

erin

g ar

roga

nce

�M

arke

t com

petit

ion�

let i

t dec

ide

�Pa

tern

alis

tic c

omm

itmen

t to

peop

le�

Org

aniz

atio

nal i

deal

ism

�M

oral

com

mitm

ent t

o cu

stom

ers

Page 72: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Dig

ital-g

b1

�G

reat

resp

onsi

bilit

y, fr

eedo

m, a

nd tr

ust i

n th

e in

divi

dual

. �

�Do

the

right

thin

g.�

Ope

n do

or-e

mai

l. Sc

alab

ility

is a

pro

blem

.�

Pate

rnal

istic

org

aniz

atio

n.

��H

e w

ho p

ropo

ses,

doe

s.�

Very

littl

e w

as to

p-do

wn

�Pr

oduc

t man

ager

s ar

e pa

rt o

f the

pro

duct

(c

onfli

ct a

t low

leve

l)�

Smal

l, re

spon

sibl

e te

ams.

Mak

e th

eir o

wn

sche

dule

s.�

CD

C: C

ray

left,

mac

hine

s ob

sole

te, E

TA h

ad n

o le

gacy

, Pric

e (C

E0) t

houg

ht to

p de

cide

s, b

otto

m

exec

utes

�C

onfli

ct is

goo

d. C

ame

from

sta

rtin

g fr

om M

.I.T.

Dat

a de

cide

s�

OK

to h

ave

com

petin

g an

d ov

erla

ppin

g te

chno

logy

/pro

ject

s/pr

oduc

ts,

but k

now

whe

n to

cut

them

! Whe

n D

EC s

tart

ed d

own,

it h

ad a

lmos

t 10

plat

form

s

Page 73: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Dig

ital g

b-2

�Fo

cus

on C

usto

mer

. Le

t the

m d

ecid

e th

e st

rate

gy.

�Pr

ofit

is e

ssen

tial �

all p

rodu

cts

wer

e m

easu

red

��E

ither

mak

e th

e st

anda

rd o

r fol

low

it, i

f you

fail

to

mak

e th

e st

anda

rd y

ou g

et to

do

it tw

ice.

�IB

M P

C

vers

us 3

��M

ake

wha

t you

can

sel

l, no

t wha

t you

can

buy

.�Th

eref

ore:

sel

l eve

ryth

ing

you

mak

e.�

sem

i�

Wilk

es: �

Stay

in th

e m

ains

trea

m��

SOS,

EC

L�

Bew

are

of c

ompl

ex s

truc

ture

s. B

uyer

-sel

ler

rela

tions

hips

ver

sus

mat

rix

Page 74: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

DE

C: S

chei

n V

iew

of W

hat�s

Lea

rned

�1. D

on�t

judg

e a

com

pany

by

its p

ublic

face

. 2.

A c

ultu

re o

f inn

ovat

ion

does

not

sca

le u

p; �

func

tiona

l fam

iliar

ity�

and

�tru

th th

roug

h de

bate

�ar

e lo

st w

ith s

ize;

�do

the

right

thin

g�be

com

es d

ysfu

nctio

nal;

man

ager

ial s

ense

of r

espo

nsib

ility

ch

ange

s w

ith a

ge a

nd m

atur

ity; b

uy-in

bec

omes

sup

erfic

ial a

gree

men

t. 3.

If a

cul

ture

of i

nnov

atio

n on

ly w

orks

at a

cer

tain

sm

all s

ize,

the

orga

niza

tion

mus

t eith

er fi

nd a

way

to

brea

k aw

ay s

mal

l uni

ts th

at c

ontin

ue to

inno

vate

or a

band

on in

nova

tion

as a

str

ateg

ic p

riorit

y.

4. A

cul

ture

that

bre

eds

succ

ess

and

grow

th o

ver a

con

side

rabl

e tim

e be

com

es s

tabl

e an

d em

bedd

ed

even

if it

con

tain

s dy

sfun

ctio

nal e

lem

ents

; cha

ngin

g th

e cu

lture

mea

ns c

hang

ing

key

peop

le w

ho

are

the

cultu

re c

arrie

rs5.

Cul

ture

s ar

e so

met

imes

str

onge

r tha

n or

gani

zatio

ns

6. A

suc

cess

ful t

echn

ical

vis

ion

will

eve

ntua

lly c

reat

e its

ow

n co

mpe

titio

n an

d, th

eref

ore,

cha

nges

in

tech

nolo

gy a

nd in

the

mar

ket c

ondi

tions

; dom

inan

t des

igns

will

em

erge

and

com

mod

itiza

tion

will

oc

cur.

7. S

ucce

ssfu

l gro

wth

bas

ed o

n a

tech

nica

l vis

ion

will

hid

e bu

sine

ss p

robl

ems

and

inef

ficie

ncie

s un

til

an e

cono

mic

cris

is re

veal

s th

em o

r unt

il th

e bu

sine

ss g

ene

is s

witc

hed

on; r

ecog

nitio

n of

thos

e pr

oble

ms

will

not

nec

essa

rily

prod

uce

rem

edia

l act

ion.

8. If

a g

row

ing

busi

ness

lack

s th

e bu

sine

ss g

ene,

the

Boa

rd m

usta

ct to

intr

oduc

e th

at g

ene.

9. If

you

try

to d

o ev

eryt

hing

, you

may

end

up

not d

oing

any

thin

g ve

ry w

ell.

10. H

ow th

e m

arke

t evo

lves

may

not

refle

ct e

ither

the

best

tech

nolo

gy o

r the

mos

t obv

ious

logi

c.11

. A te

chni

cal v

isio

n th

at is

righ

t for

its

time

can

blin

d yo

u to

tech

nica

l evo

lutio

n12

. The

val

ue o

f �lis

teni

ng to

you

r cus

tom

ers�

depe

nds

upon

whi

ch c

usto

mer

s yo

u ch

oose

to li

sten

to.

13. T

he ty

pe o

f Gov

erna

nce

Syst

em a

n or

gani

zatio

n us

es m

ust e

volv

e as

the

orga

niza

tion

mat

ures

14

. The

eve

nts

and

forc

es a

ct in

uni

son�

Page 75: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

A P

uzzl

ing

Que

stio

nW

hat w

ould

cau

se o

ne o

f the

indu

stri

al st

ars

of th

e 20

th c

entu

ry, a

nd o

ne o

f the

firs

t tru

ly

digi

tal e

cono

my

com

pani

es,a

t the

ver

y ze

nith

of

its s

ucce

ss, t

o be

gin

a pr

ecip

itous

dec

line

that

w

ould

eve

ntua

lly re

sult

in it

s dem

ise?

Cou

rtesy

Pet

e D

eLis

i

Page 76: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Why

did

Dig

ital f

ail (

GB

)�

The

top

3-5

exec

s di

dn�t

unde

rsta

nd c

ompu

ting

�M

oore

�s L

aw, S

tand

ards

and

thei

r effe

ct�

Plat

form

s an

d th

eir s

uppo

rt�

Leve

ls o

f int

egra

tion,

mak

e-bu

y, a

nd IS

Vs

�C

ompe

titor

met

rics:

it s

impl

y go

t �ou

t of c

ontro

l��

Des

troye

d its

mar

ketin

g or

gani

zatio

n, re

quiri

ng a

co

mpl

ex m

atrix

edor

gani

zatio

n, b

ut la

ckin

g IS

Vs�

Did

n�t e

xplo

it: p

rintin

g (e

.g. H

P),

netw

orki

ng (e

.g.

Cis

co),

the

Web

, and

UN

IX�

Did

: EC

L m

ainf

ram

e, n

on-c

ompa

tible

PC

, too

man

y pl

atfo

rms,

sem

i-fab

sw

ithou

t par

tner

ship

s

Page 77: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Bel

l Mas

on d

iagn

ostic

of D

EC

dig

ital

equi

pmen

t cor

pora

tion

11/9

0

Page 78: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

1986

-198

8

GO

H

EA

D-T

O-H

EA

DW

ITH

IBM

DE

C su

cces

sful

, ot

hers

not

Mar

ketp

lace

shift

s -In

dust

ry m

atur

ity, U

NIX

No

grow

thFa

ilure

to a

ntic

ipat

eFa

ilure

to c

reat

e ne

w

grow

th m

arke

ts1.

Pol

itics

2. N

o fo

cus

3. N

o vi

sion

No

way

to c

ut c

ost

1. N

o la

yoff

s2.

Inef

ficie

ncie

s3.

Lac

k of

Pro

f mgm

t.Po

or le

ader

ship

1. F

ail t

o ac

t/dec

ide

2. F

ail t

o di

rect

3. L

oss o

f pow

er

Cen

tral

izat

ion

of p

ower

Hub

ris

P/L

s go

away

Gor

don

Bel

l lea

ves

Cul

ture

1. V

astly

inef

ficie

nt2.

Ove

rlap

& r

edun

danc

y3.

Tru

th th

roug

h co

nflic

t4.

Fam

ily b

elie

f5.

Mar

ketp

lace

dec

ides

Ken

�s M

gt. m

odel

Inco

mpe

tent

Boa

rdN

o Pr

of. M

grs

No

succ

essi

on p

lan.

Wea

k go

vern

ance

Palm

er h

ired

Lay

offs

The

End

Stra

tegy

1. N

ot v

alue

d2.

Lac

k of

kno

wle

dge

Cou

rtesy

Pet

e D

eLis

i

Page 79: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Dig

ital�s

Tria

ls b

y Te

chno

logy

�W

ith ti

me,

hig

h te

ch b

ecom

es a

com

mod

ity.

�DE

C fo

und

guilt

y of

vio

latin

g M

oore

�s L

aw �

��gb

ell

1.D

esig

ning

and

bui

ldin

g fir

st tr

ansi

stor

circ

uits

.1957

-196

5

2.Tr

ansi

tion

to in

tegr

ated

circ

uits

& m

odul

o 8

bits

1965

-197

5

3.D

esig

n w

ith V

LSI;

man

ufac

turin

g V

LSI 1

975-

2002

4.D

esig

n of

�clu

ster

s� a

s th

e ul

timat

e co

mpu

ter 1

983-

????

5.Q

uadr

uple

wha

mm

y c1

983

��k

iller

� mic

ros,

UN

IX:

PC

, Wor

ksta

tions

, CM

OS

AN

D U

NIX

, as

�sta

ndar

ds�

Any

one

can

man

ufac

ture

r com

pute

rs in

thei

r dor

m!

�You

mea

n to

say

, our

new

EC

L m

ainf

ram

e is

not

eq

ual t

o ou

r lat

est C

MO

S c

hip?

� �K

en O

lsen

c19

906.

Fail

to e

xplo

it: n

etw

orks

, WW

W, p

rinte

rs, c

lust

ers�

Page 80: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Pau

l Kam

pas�

Vie

w o

f the

Com

pute

r Ind

ustry

an

d D

EC

Fai

lure

Page 81: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

SAP

IV.

Appl

icat

ion/

Cont

ent

III.

Infra

stru

ctur

e

II.Pr

oces

sing

I.St

orag

e/Ph

ysic

al

Hie

rarc

hyof

Val

ue:

Inte

l

Mic

roso

ft

IBM

Appl

e

HPpr

inte

rs

Ora

cle EM

C

AOL

Tim

e W

arne

r

Yaho

o

Sun Co

mpa

q (to

HP

2002

)

HPco

mpu

ters

Dell

DEC

Appl

eiT

unes

Noki

a ce

ll ph

ones

Cis

co

Emer

genc

e of

Dom

inan

t Des

ign:

198

1

1955

1985

1980

1975

1990

1995

1970

1965

1950

1960

2000

1945

Tran

s-is

tor

(194

7)

Inte

grat

edCi

rcui

t(1

958)

Unix

O/S

(197

0)

RISC

Arch

’(1

986)

16-b

it

32-

bit

Mic

ropr

oces

sor

(197

8)

(19

79)

HTM

L/W

WW

(199

3)

TCP/

IPIn

tern

et(1

969)

Tech

nolo

gica

lIn

nova

tions

GUI

(198

1)

2005

V.Ne

uman

nAr

ch’

(194

5)

Mag

netic

Stor

age

(~19

55)

1945

Min

i-Co

mpu

ter

(196

5)

Opt

ical

Stor

age

(198

2)

Linu

xO

/S(1

991)

The

Vert

ical

Dis

-inte

grat

ion

of th

e IT

Indu

stry

: Th

e R

ise

of C

ateg

ory

Kille

rs

1981

1975

1968

1972

1957

1977

1984

1977

1979

1985

1994

1982

1982

1966

1984

1952

2003

1984

Goo

gle

1998

Pro

vide

d C

ourte

sy o

f Pau

l Kam

pas

©A

ll R

ight

s R

eser

ved

Page 82: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Pro

vide

d C

ourte

sy o

f Pau

l Kam

pas

©A

ll R

ight

s R

eser

ved

1955

1985

1980

1975

1990

1995

1970

1965

1950

1960

2000

1945

Tim

e

PDP-1

PDP-8

MicroVAX

PDP-11

IBM S/360

IBM 7090

ENIAC

Univac I

DEC

Foun

ded

(195

7)

DEC

Acq

uire

d(1

998)

Ken

Ols

enR

esig

ns(1

992)

DEC

�sB

est Y

ear

(198

7)

DEC

Ent

ers

Fort

une

500

(197

4)

IBM PC/MS-DOS

MIT WhirlwindJay Forrester/

Ken Olsen

Rainbow/Pro

IBM 701

IBM 1401

Sun & HP RISC

MIPS Wkstn

Oth

erPr

oduc

ts

Alpha

VAX 9000

PDP-10

Apple II

Palm Pilot

Unix

NT

Linux

FORTRAN

DEC

Org

aniz

atio

n:Fu

nctio

nal

Har

dwar

ePr

oduc

t Lin

esM

arke

t/Cha

nnel

Prod

uct L

ines

Fu

nctio

nal

Varie

d

Apple Mac

VAX 750

VAX 8600

VAX 780

DEC

Prod

ucts

SunCompaq

Para

digm

3: 1

981+

-PC

s +

Wor

ksta

tions

+ S

erve

rs +

Han

dhel

ds-C

lient

-Ser

ver C

ompu

ting

+ B

row

sers

/WW

W-H

oriz

onta

l Pro

duct

Inte

grat

ion

(Inte

l + M

icro

soft

+ C

isco

+

Ora

cle

+ S

eaga

te +

HP

Prin

ters

�)

Open Software Foundation

DEC

Pro

prie

tary

Des

ign

Cro

ss-v

endo

r Dom

inan

t Des

ign

Prod

uct

Line

sA

bolis

hed

IBM S/370

Para

digm

1: 1

951

-196

5-M

ainf

ram

es C

ompu

ters

-Bat

ch C

ompu

ting

-Ver

tical

Pro

duct

Inte

grat

ion

(IBM

, �B

unch

�)

Pre

curs

orP

recu

rsor

Pre

curs

or

DEC

Situ

atio

n:

RIS

C +

Uni

x or

NT

or L

inux

+ O

racl

e +

TCP/

IP +

Win

tel P

C +

MS-

Win

dow

s +

MS-

Offi

ce +

Bro

wse

rVA

X +

VMS

+ R

db +

DEC

net +

All-i

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PS +

VTx

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omin

ant

Des

ign

Emer

ges

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e to

Mic

roVA

X II

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ears

afte

r M68

000)

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e to

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yea

rs a

fter 7

80)

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as u

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ful $

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vest

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t (19

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e to

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lpha

(via

MIP

s; 6

yea

rs a

fter S

un/H

P)-N

ever

fully

end

orse

d U

nix

(�sna

ke o

il�)

-Lat

e in

mov

ing

from

OSI

to T

CP/

IP s

tand

ard

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e to

IBM

-com

patib

le P

C (v

ia R

ainb

ow, P

ro, D

ECm

ate)

-Nev

er s

ucce

ssfu

lly re

-div

isio

naliz

ed-N

ever

ach

ieve

d lo

w c

ost c

apab

ility

-Lea

ding

12,

16,

32-

bit m

inis

& O

S�s

-Lea

ding

vid

eo te

rmin

als

(VT-

xx�

)-L

eadi

ng p

rintin

g te

rmin

als

(LA-

xx)

-Lea

ding

OEM

bus

ines

s-L

eadi

ng o

ffice

sof

twar

e-E

ffect

ive

divi

sion

al s

truc

ture

Gor

don

Bel

l Res

igns

1983

Para

digm

2: 1

965

-198

1-M

inic

ompu

ters

-Tim

esha

red

Com

putin

g-V

ertic

al P

rodu

ct In

tegr

atio

n (IB

M,

DE

C, H

P)

The

Ris

e an

d Fa

ll of

DEC

: An

nota

ted

Tim

elin

e

1st�

Cre

atio

n2n

d�

Ris

e 3r

d�

Pla

teau

4t

h�

Dec

line

The

Four

Age

s of

DEC

:

Page 83: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Cro

ss-s

ectio

nal V

iew

of t

he D

EC O

rgan

izat

iona

l Sys

tem

c.1

970s

: �T

he D

EC W

ay�

Exte

rnal

Env

iron

men

t

Res

ults

Cul

tura

l A

ssum

ptio

ns

Lea

d,

Org

aniz

e &

Sup

port

Exec

ute

(Ope

ratio

ns)

Stra

tegy

, G

oals

&Pr

iori

ties

Cul

tura

l Sou

rces

(c.1

940s

-50s

)

Fairl

y w

eak

CFO

, m

arke

ting

&

busin

ess

man

agem

ent

Hea

dy te

chni

cal

com

mun

ity n

eede

d an

d ha

d a

brill

iant

lead

er

(Gor

don

Bel

l)

Det

erm

ine

valid

ity

thro

ugh

deba

te, b

uy-

in th

roug

h co

nsen

sus

Hed

ge b

ets b

y of

ferin

g m

ultip

le p

rodu

cts a

nd

letti

ng th

e m

arke

t de

cide

Avo

id e

xter

nal

depe

nden

cies

and

in

tern

al

divi

sion

aliz

atio

n

Mar

ketin

g do

ne v

ia D

ECU

S an

d Pr

oduc

t Lin

es; m

uch

of it

DEC

en

gine

er to

cus

tom

er te

chie

s

DEC

was

goo

d at

inno

vativ

e an

d la

ter

soph

istic

ated

pro

duct

s

DEC

was

typi

cally

slow

in

getti

ng to

mar

ket a

nd n

ot a

lo

w-c

ost p

rodu

cer

DEC

gre

w in

to a

lmos

t ev

ery

hard

war

e an

d so

ftwar

e se

gmen

t

DEC

had

goo

d re

latio

ns w

ith

early

ado

pter

s

DEC

�s P

DP-

8, 1

0,

11, a

nd V

AX

wer

e ve

ry su

cces

sful

DEC

was

pro

fitab

le d

ue to

hi

gh g

row

th a

nd IB

M p

rice

umbr

ella

DEC

�s p

ropr

ieta

ry

suite

of H

W &

SW

w

as v

ery

succ

essf

ul

DEC

was

su

cces

sful

go

ing

it al

one

Mot

ivat

e th

roug

h in

tern

al c

ompe

titio

nTe

chni

cal e

litis

m: w

e ca

n an

d w

ant t

o bu

ild

supe

rior p

rodu

cts

Let/e

ncou

rage

eve

ryon

e to

inno

vate

and

be

entre

pren

euria

lSt

rive

to b

e a

valu

ed

mem

ber o

f the

fam

ily

Mos

t m

arke

ting

is ly

ing

A g

ood

prod

uct

sells

itse

lfW

e ca

n do

itbe

tter t

han

othe

rs

DEC

is a

tigh

t-kni

t, in

divi

dual

istic

, in

war

dly

focu

sed

fam

ily

If yo

u m

ake

good

pr

oduc

ts, m

oney

will

na

tura

lly fo

llow

Ever

yone

is

empo

wer

ed, s

elf-

man

agin

g,eg

alita

rian

We

are

smar

ter t

han

othe

rs

Tech

nolo

gy

driv

es b

usin

ess

MIT

Hon

esty

Fam

ilyPe

rson

al

resp

onsib

ility

Yan

kee

Chr

istia

n V

alue

s

Entre

pren

euria

l I

ndep

ende

nt

Am

eric

an R

ugge

d In

divi

dual

ism

Partn

ersh

ips,

allia

nces

, ou

tsour

cing

, etc

wer

e no

t hig

hly

impo

rtant

The

indu

stry

m

oved

qui

te

slow

ly w

ith lo

ng

prod

uct c

ycle

s

IBM

�s p

rovi

ded

a hi

gh

pric

ing

umbr

ella

and

the

mar

ket w

as g

row

ing

rapi

dly

Mar

ket w

as m

ostly

ea

rly a

dopt

ers (

end-

user

and

OEM

)

Cus

tom

ers w

ante

d in

tegr

ated

pro

duct

so

lutio

ns, b

ut fe

w

stan

dard

s exi

sted

Low

-cos

t, en

d-us

er

com

pute

rs w

ere

only

ju

st e

mer

ging

to

war

ds th

e en

d of

th

is e

ra

Prov

ided

Cou

rtesy

of P

aul K

ampa

s ©A

ll R

ight

s Res

erve

d

Sour

ce:

Kam

pas

Res

earc

h

Page 84: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

DEC

�s P

ositi

on in

the

Evol

ving

Com

pute

r Ind

ustr

y La

ndsc

ape:

197

6 -2

001

Pro

vide

d C

ourte

sy o

f Pau

l Kam

pas

©A

ll R

ight

s R

eser

ved

Not

es: O

nly

sele

cted

sys

tem

s sh

own;

Siz

e of

bub

ble

repr

esen

ts m

arke

t cov

erag

e, n

ot n

eces

saril

y re

venu

e

IBM

Mai

nfra

mes

IBM

AS

/400

DEC

V

AX/

Alp

ha

PerformanceH

igh

Low

Tech

nica

lG

ener

al P

urpo

seC

omm

erci

alTe

chni

cal

Gen

eral

Pur

pose

Com

mer

cial

IBM

Mai

nfra

mes

IBM

S/3

, S/3

4

Sup

er-

com

pute

rs(C

DC

,C

ray-

1)

Performance

Hig

h

Low

Sup

er-

com

pute

rs

RIS

C/U

nix

Wor

ksta

tions

& S

erve

rs

Win

tel P

Cs/

Serv

ers

RIS

C/U

nix

Wor

ksta

tions

&S

erve

rs

Win

tel P

Cs/

Serv

ers

App

leM

ac

App

le M

ac

c. 1

976

c. 1

987

DEC

�s

Bes

t Ye

ar

c. 1

995

c. 2

001

Sup

er-

com

pute

rs

App

le I

Pal

m?

Son

yP

lays

tatio

n?

DE

C P

DP

-11

DE

C P

DP

-10

IBM

Mai

nfra

mes

IBM

AS

/400

Com

paq

Alp

ha

IBM

Mai

nfra

mes IB

MS

/38

DE

C V

AX

Sup

er-

com

pute

rs

RIS

C/

Uni

xW

kstn

s &

Ser

vers

Win

tel P

Cs/

Serv

ers

App

le M

ac

Performance

Hig

h

Low Performance

Hig

h

Low

Page 85: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

Dom

inan

t Des

ign

Emer

ges

�The

recl

usiv

e Pa

lmer

was

not

wel

l-su

ited

to le

ad c

ultu

ral c

hang

e�K

en O

lsen

had

bee

n to

o ce

ntra

l to

cultu

re, m

akin

g su

cces

sion

har

d

�DE

C�s

heav

ily o

ptim

ized

Bia

s A

cu

lture

did

n�t e

volv

e w

ell

�The

cul

ture

was

diff

icul

t to

chan

ge

with

the

foun

der p

rese

nt

DE

C�s

heav

ily B

ias

A c

ultu

re w

as w

ell

alig

ned

with

pre

-dom

inan

t des

ign

stag

e of

indu

stry

�Ken

sta

rted

early

in m

akin

g cu

lture

a

stra

tegi

c w

eapo

n at

DE

C

�Bia

s A

cultu

re re

sist

s ch

ange

eve

n w

ith n

ew m

anag

emen

t�B

ias

A cu

lture

bec

omes

mal

adap

ted

and

resi

sts

chan

ge to

war

d B

ias

B��

Fam

ily re

spon

sibi

lity�

of c

ultu

re g

ets

in th

e w

ay o

f nee

ded

layo

ffs

�Bia

s A

cultu

re p

rolif

erat

es a

nd ta

kes

hold

as

it is

rein

forc

ed b

y m

uch

succ

ess

�Ken

ada

pts

MIT

/Lin

coln

Lab

s cu

lture

to D

EC

in c

reat

ing

a B

ias

A

cultu

re

Cul

ture

1.C

ost c

uttin

g w

ithou

t new

vis

ion

was

not

suf

ficie

nt to

rein

vent

a

com

pany

1.D

EC

�svi

sion

was

not

�bui

lt to

last

�2.

DE

C�s

high

leve

ls o

f org

�aut

onom

y an

d in

tern

al c

ompe

titio

n w

ere

barr

iers

to

pro

cess

inno

vatio

n an

d lo

w c

ost

1.D

EC

was

hig

hly

impr

inte

d by

this

�h

eyda

y�er

a of

gre

at s

ucce

ss,

mak

ing

chan

ges

in fu

ture

mor

e di

fficu

lt

1.D

EC

attr

acte

d an

d hi

red

the

best

an

d th

e br

ight

est e

arly

, bui

ldin

g a

stro

ng b

ase

for f

utur

e le

ader

ship

1.N

o ne

w v

isio

n em

erge

s fo

r re

inve

ntin

g D

EC

2.La

yoffs

dem

oral

ize

DE

C c

ultu

re

1.D

EC

�stim

esha

ring

visi

on ru

ns o

ut o

f ga

s as

clie

nt-s

erve

r em

erge

s2.

Sel

f-man

agin

g cu

lture

turn

s in

to

�cou

ntry

clu

b�as

com

pany

pol

itici

zes

1.D

EC

�svi

sion

of c

ompu

ting

is w

idel

y ac

cept

ed b

y th

e m

arke

t2.

Ent

repr

eneu

rial e

ngin

eers

mov

e in

to m

any

rela

ted

prod

uct c

ateg

orie

s

1.D

EC

�sfo

undi

ng v

isio

n is

to b

uild

af

ford

able

, int

erac

tive

com

pute

rs2.

Eve

ryon

e is

enc

oura

ged

to

inno

vate

Visi

on/

Driv

e

�DE

C�s

wea

k bo

ard

was

a li

abilit

y,

wai

ting

too

long

to a

ct�D

EC

�sbo

ard

shou

ld h

ave

gone

for

an o

utsi

de C

EO

�DE

C o

rg�s

truct

ure

did

not c

hang

e w

hen

indu

stry

stru

ctur

e ch

ange

d�D

EC

faile

d to

gro

w g

ener

al m

anag

ers

1.D

EC

�sco

nsen

sus

deci

sion

-mak

ing

was

poo

rly s

uite

d fo

r har

d ch

oice

s

1.Tw

o so

rt-of

-in-a

-box

(Ken

and

G

ordo

n) w

orke

d w

ell

2.D

EC

pio

neer

ed p

rodu

ct li

nes

plus

m

atrix

edfu

nctio

ns o

rg�s

truct

ure

1.P

rodu

ct in

nova

tion

and

orga

niza

tiona

l inn

ovat

ion

wer

e cl

osel

y lin

ked,

bot

h re

flect

ing

the

cultu

re

1.P

alm

er is

nam

ed C

EO

, hire

s m

any

new

exe

cs, a

nd m

oves

to

�mar

ket d

riven

�org

aniz

atio

n2.

Pal

mer

�s re

orga

niza

tion

fails

and

m

any

new

exe

cs le

ave

3.M

assi

ve la

yoffs

and

sel

l-offs

1.D

EC

stra

tegy

bec

omes

�def

ensi

ve�

2.K

en m

oves

from

dev

il�s

advo

cate

to

advo

cate

3.P

rodu

ct li

nes

abol

ishe

d4.

Gor

don

Bell

and

man

y ex

ecs

leav

e5.

Sm

ith a

nd S

hiel

ds c

onso

lidat

e po

wer

1.D

EC

�sst

rate

gy is

�offe

nsiv

e�2.

Pro

duct

line

s an

d m

atrix

edfu

nctio

ns e

stab

lishe

d3.

Gor

don

crea

tes

netw

orke

d V

AX

stra

tegy

4.K

aufm

ann

and

Maz

zare

sele

ave

1.C

ompa

ny o

rgan

ized

by

func

tion

2.M

ultip

le p

roje

cts

allo

wed

to

proc

eed

in p

aral

lel

3.C

ompu

ter a

rchi

tect

Ben

Gur

ley

leav

esSt

eerin

g/In

fras

truc

tur

e

1.D

EC

�sbi

g se

rvic

e or

g w

asn�

t go

od a

t sys

tem

s in

tegr

atio

n du

e to

la

ck o

f dis

cipl

ine,

sta

ndar

d m

etho

ds

1.D

EC

unw

isel

y at

tack

ed IB

M h

ead-

on2.

DE

C�s

Bia

s A

cul

ture

cau

sed

prod

�s

to b

e la

te, e

xpen

sive

, and

clo

sed

1.D

EC

�sin

nova

tion

focu

s pa

id o

ff2.

DE

C w

as a

pio

neer

in k

now

ledg

e m

gt u

sing

em

ail &

VA

Xnot

es

1.D

EC

wis

ely

atta

cked

an

unco

ntes

ted

mar

ket s

pace

1.A

lpha

intro

duce

d an

d ex

perie

nces

onl

y lim

ited

succ

ess,

m

ostly

in V

AX

base

2.D

EC

sel

ls a

lmos

t exc

lusi

vely

to

inst

alle

d ba

se3.

DE

C s

ervi

ces

mis

ses

syst

ems

inte

grat

ion

wav

e th

at IB

M c

atch

es

1.R

ainb

ow/D

EC

mat

e/P

ro fa

il ag

ains

t IB

M P

C2.

Sun

suc

cess

fully

atta

cks

VA

X w

ith

UN

IX a

nd R

ISC

(�87

) in

tech

�mar

ket

3.D

EC

uns

ucce

ssfu

lly a

ttack

s IB

M w

ith

VA

X 90

00 a

nd s

ervi

ces

4.D

EC

has

bur

st o

f suc

cess

in �8

5-�8

7 w

ith h

igh-

end

VA

Xes,

DE

Cne

t, O

ffice

1.P

DP

-8 is

firs

t big

, hig

h vo

lum

e hi

t2.

PD

P-1

1, V

AX,

and

DE

Cne

tin

trodu

ced

and

succ

eed

wild

ly3.

16-b

it an

d 32

-bit

mic

ropr

oces

sors

po

wer

ing

PC

s an

d w

orks

tatio

ns

emer

ge a

s po

tent

ial d

isru

ptiv

e te

chno

logi

es

�DE

C s

ells

mod

ules

to g

ener

ate

early

reve

nue

stre

am a

nd p

rofit

s�D

EC

intro

duce

s fir

st P

DP

�sin

se

arch

of t

he ri

ght f

orm

ula

for

smal

l, in

tera

ctiv

e co

mpu

ters

Exec

utio

n/R

esul

ts

4th

Age

(199

2-98

): D

eclin

e(S

cala

ble

Com

pute

rs ta

ke a

ll)3r

d A

ge (1

981-

92):

Pla

teau

(The

PC

Indu

stry

form

s�2n

d A

ge (

1965

-81)

: R

ise

ICs:

min

icom

pute

rs fo

rm1s

t Age

(195

7-65

): C

reat

ion

Esta

blis

h in

dust

ry, T

rans

isto

rsO

rg�

Sys

tem

:

DEC

Ana

lysi

s an

d Le

sson

s Le

arne

d Ac

ross

Its

Four

Age

s

Page 86: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

1993

: Mic

roso

ft N

T19

81: I

BM

PC

1982

: Sun

/UN

IX w

orks

tatio

n19

75: I

BM

S/3

2 m

ini

1976

: IB

M S

erie

s/1

1978

: App

le II

1964

: IB

M 3

60

Com

petit

ion:

1987

: DE

C�s

best

yea

r19

87: O

ctob

er �8

7 bl

ack

Frid

ay19

75: $

533M

1977

: >$1

B; 3

8,00

0 em

ploy

ees

1966

: DE

C IP

O19

74: E

nter

s Fo

rtune

500

(475

)19

67: $

39M

rev�

s, $

4.5M

pro

fit

Bus

ines

s:

1992

: Ken

resi

gns

1981

: Sta

n O

lsen

left

1982

: Ted

Joh

nson

left

1983

: Gor

don

Bel

l (to

Enc

ore)

, A

ndy

Kno

wle

s, J

uliu

s M

arcu

s,

Bob

Puf

fer,

Dic

k C

layt

on, L

arry

P

ortn

er, R

oger

Cad

y, B

erni

e La

Cro

ute

(to S

un),

Dav

e R

oger

s al

l lef

t

1977

: Kau

fman

n le

ft19

66: P

ete

Kau

fman

n19

66: H

arla

n A

nder

son

leav

es19

66: G

ordo

n B

ell g

oes

to C

MU

1968

: DeC

astro

left,

foun

ded

DG

1969

: Kno

wle

s, M

arcu

s, C

ady

1972

: Maz

zare

sele

ft19

72: G

ordo

n B

retu

rns

1957

: KO

, Sta

n O

, Har

lan

And

ers�

n19

58: T

ed J

ohns

on, J

ack

Sm

ith19

59: B

en G

urle

y (le

ft 19

62)

1960

: Gor

don

Bel

l19

61: J

ack

Shi

elds

1962

: Win

Hin

dle,

Nic

k M

azza

rese

,

Peop

le:

1992

: Ken

Res

igns

; re

plac

ed b

y Pa

lmer

1981

: Enf

ield

Pla

nt o

pens

1982

: Eng

r& m

fg c

onso

lidat

ed19

83: �

Gun

fight

at K

O C

orra

l�:

Pro

d lin

es, O

ffice

of P

res,

O

pera

tions

Ctte

disb

ande

d19

83: S

hiel

ds g

et s

ales

(+se

rvic

e)19

83: J

. Sm

ith g

ot e

ngin

eerin

g19

87: D

orio

tdie

d

1974

: Cen

tral E

ngrf

orm

ed

(GB)

1974

: Com

pone

nts

Gro

up

(AK)

1978

: Ser

vice

(Shi

elds

) spu

n ou

t fro

m s

ales

(Joh

nson

)19

80: J

ulie

Pita

(Bus

�nW

eek)

in

terv

iew

of K

O

1969

: Hire

d ou

tsid

e P

Lin

e m

grs

1970

: �P

alac

e R

evol

t�(K

aufm

ann)

1972

: Mar

ket p

rodu

ct li

nes

1972

: Dor

iotj

oins

the

boar

d

1964

: Har

dwar

e pr

oduc

t lin

es +

m

atrix

man

agem

ent

Org

aniz

atio

n:

1992

: DE

C P

C c

lone

1993

: Alp

ha19

81: R

obin

(VT-

180)

1982

: Rai

nbow

, Pro

, DE

Cm

ate

II19

83: J

upite

r/10s

/20/

s ki

lled

1984

: 860

019

85: M

icro

VA

X II

1975

: VA

X te

am fo

rmed

1975

: LS

I-11,

DE

Cm

ate

1976

: DE

Cne

t19

78: V

AX-

780

1978

: Gor

don�

s V

AX

Stra

tegy

1979

: Eth

erne

t

1965

: PD

P-8

(1st

min

icom

pute

r)19

67: P

DP

-10,

PD

P-X

1970

: PD

P-1

1

1957

: Log

ic m

odul

es19

61: P

DP

-119

64: P

DP

-6,

Prod

ucts

:

1993

: Wor

ld W

ide

Web

1981

: Gra

phic

al U

ser I

nter

face

1986

: RIS

C a

rchi

tect

ure

1975

: DE

C b

uys

Mos

tek

fab

1978

: 16-

bit m

icro

proc

esso

r19

79: 3

2-bi

t mic

ropr

oces

sor

1965

: MS

I19

69: L

SI,

Arp

anet

1970

: UN

IX19

72: 8

-Bit

mic

ropr

oces

sor

1958

: Int

egra

ted

circ

uit �

SS

I19

64: A

utom

ated

wire

wra

p

Tech

nolo

gy:

Four

th A

ge (1

992-

98)

Third

Age

(198

1-19

92)

Seco

nd A

ge:

A (1

965-

75),

B (1

975-

81)

Firs

t Age

(195

7-65

)

Key

Eve

nts

Acr

oss

DEC

�sFo

ur A

ges

Page 87: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

1.Th

e W

orld

Wid

e W

eb a

nd

hand

held

com

pute

rs g

ive

wor

kers

eve

n m

ore

acce

ss a

nd

cont

rol o

f the

ir in

fo d

estin

y

1.W

orke

rs c

ontin

ue to

see

k m

ore

open

acc

ess

and

cont

rol o

f the

ir in

form

atio

n de

stin

y, a

nd m

igra

te

from

term

inal

s to

PC

s

1.W

orke

rs w

ant m

ore

open

acc

ess

to in

form

atio

n an

d co

mpu

ters

, m

akin

g tim

esha

ring

and

term

inal

s a

big

succ

ess

�Pos

t-war

soc

iety

kno

cks

dow

n m

any

barr

iers

as

wom

en e

nter

th

e w

orkf

orce

and

com

pute

rs

ente

r the

cor

pora

tion.

Soci

ety

1.C

ateg

ory

kille

rs c

ontin

ue to

gr

ow, m

any

beco

min

g �8

00

poun

d go

rilla

s�. D

ell�s

pro

cess

in

nova

tions

hel

p dr

ive

pric

es

dow

n an

d ga

in a

dvan

tage

.

1.C

ateg

ory

kille

rs e

mer

ge

(Mic

roso

ft, In

tel,

Com

paq,

Del

l, Su

n, C

isco

, EM

C, H

P pr

inte

rs,

Ora

cle,

Lot

us, A

OL)

1.D

G, H

P, T

ande

m, I

BM

, Prim

e,

Wan

g�N

ot m

uch

dire

ct c

ompe

titio

n;

mos

t com

pute

rs w

ere

expe

nsiv

e an

d bu

ilt b

y IB

M a

nd th

e B

UN

CH

(B

urro

ughs

, Uni

vac,

NC

R, C

DC

, an

d H

oney

wel

l)C

ompe

titio

n

1.La

ggar

d co

mpa

nies

and

ear

ly

maj

ority

con

sum

ers

ente

r1.

Late

maj

ority

com

pani

es a

nd

early

ado

pter

con

sum

ers

ente

r1.

Early

maj

ority

com

pani

es jo

in

early

ado

pter

s�E

arly

ado

pter

com

pani

es e

nter

Cus

tom

er M

ix

1.M

any

hard

war

e sy

stem

ve

ndor

s be

com

e sa

ndw

iche

d be

twee

n In

tel a

nd M

icro

soft

runn

ing

3rdpa

rty

softw

are,

re

sulti

ng in

und

iffer

entia

ted

prod

ucts

, and

thus

losi

ng

muc

h m

arke

t pow

er

1.W

ith th

e em

erge

nce

of s

tand

ards

(d

e fa

ctor

and

de

jure

), so

ftwar

e ve

ndor

s an

d cu

stom

ers

gain

pow

er

over

har

dwar

e ve

ndor

s

1.So

ftwar

e ve

ndor

s em

erge

in th

e m

id-7

0s a

nd g

ain

som

e po

wer

, but

ha

rdw

are

vend

ors

still

hav

e th

e up

per h

and

�Har

dwar

e is

com

plic

ated

, un

relia

ble,

and

pro

prie

tary

, gi

ving

har

dwar

e ve

ndor

s th

e up

per h

and

Envi

ronm

enta

l D

eter

min

ism

1.Th

e W

orld

Wid

e W

eb

emer

ges

in 1

993,

runn

ing

over

th

e In

tern

et (f

orm

erly

the

Arp

anet

)

1.Th

e IB

M P

C (1

981)

and

clie

nt-

serv

er a

rchi

tect

ure

emer

ge a

s th

e do

min

ant d

esig

n of

com

putin

g2.

Hig

h pe

rfor

man

ce R

ISC

(Red

uced

In

stru

ctio

n Se

t Com

putin

g)

arch

itect

ure

hits

the

mar

ket i

n 19

863.

Mic

ropr

oces

sors

ove

rtak

e tr

aditi

onal

boa

rd-b

ased

com

pute

rs

in p

erfo

rman

ce b

y th

e en

d of

this

ag

e4.

Pack

aged

app

licat

ions

bec

ome

a dr

ivin

g fo

rce

as h

ardw

are

stan

dard

izes

1.Ti

mes

harin

g be

com

es a

do

min

ant c

ompu

ting

wav

e2.

Mic

ropr

oces

sors

em

erge

in th

e ea

rly �7

0s, p

reci

pita

ting

the

emer

genc

e of

per

sona

l com

pute

rs

and

wor

ksta

tions

in th

e la

te �7

0s3.

The

Arp

anet

and

UN

IX e

mer

ge in

19

69 a

nd 1

970

resp

ectiv

ely,

bot

h of

w

hich

late

r bec

ame

the

basi

s of

ke

y st

anda

rds

4.Pa

ckag

ed a

pplic

atio

ns b

egin

to

emer

ge in

the

mid

-197

0s

�Com

pute

rs a

re m

ovin

g fr

om

vacu

um tu

bes

to tr

ansi

stor

s an

d ea

rly in

tegr

ated

circ

uits

(IC

s)�T

imes

harin

g is

em

ergi

ng a

s a

mor

e us

er-fr

iend

ly c

ompu

ting

para

digm

than

bat

ch�P

rogr

amm

ing

lang

uage

s em

erge

, but

alm

ost n

o pa

ckag

ed

appl

icat

ions

exi

st (s

o us

ers

mus

t w

rite

thei

r ow

n ap

plic

atio

ns)

Tech

nolo

gy

mat

urity

4th

Age

(199

2-98

): D

eclin

e3r

d A

ge (1

981-

92):

Pla

teau

2nd

Age

(19

65-8

1):

Ris

e1s

t Age

(195

7-65

): C

reat

ion

Them

e:

Exte

rnal

Con

text

Indu

stry

For

ces

Acro

ss D

EC�s

Four

Age

s

Page 88: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

The

End

Page 89: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

NO

D: N

o O

utpu

t D

ivis

ion

Page 90: The Birth and Passing of Minicomputers: From A Digital ...courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/lectures/slides/G… · the past, favored software. HARDWARE CHARACTERISTICS

The

Tech

nolo

gy B

alan

ce S

heet

Tech

nolo

gy A

dvis

ory

Boa

rd

Team

, Pro

duct

Arc

hite

ct,

Engi

neer

ing

Cul

ture

Chi

ef T

echn

ical

Offi

cer

(Eng

. VP)

Man

ufac

turin

g Sp

ecs.

(i.

e. H

ow to

Pr

oduc

e Pr

oduc

t)

Eng.

Spe

cs:

Use

r vie

w (e

.g.,

data

she

ets,

m

anua

ls) a

nd F

eatu

res,

Fun

ctio

ns,

Ben

efit

(FFB

)En

g. v

iew

(e.g

., pr

oduc

t str

uctu

re,

how

to d

esig

n)

Plan

with

:Sc

hedu

le o

f M

ilest

ones

&R

esou

rces

Tech

nolo

gy

Futu

re -

-Fi

nanc

eabi

lity

$s

(Cas

h / B

udge

t)

Qua

lity

Des

ign

Met

hods

/Pro

cess

es

Exte

rnal

(ind

ustr

y),

inte

rnal

, & o

ther

sta

ndar

ds

Ope

ratio

nal M

anag

emen

t(a

bilit

y to

fulfi

lpla

ns-

spec

s, re

sour

ces,

sch

edul

e)

Indi

geno

us (i

.e.,

skill

s,to

ols,

& te

chni

cal k

now

how

)&

exo

geno

us te

chno

logy

base

(e.g

., pa

tent

s)

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