Op zoek naar een nieuwe orde: het einde van het 55 systeem?

“1993 was a history-making year in Japanese politics. Our people recovered their status as masters of their political situation. I am very optimistic about the future Japanese

capability to handle their political problems.”

(Naoki Tanaka, director of the 21st Century Public Policy Institute)

Change…

Japanese politics in the 1990s: a new context End of the cold war Globalization Recession

Architect of the new political era: Ozawa Ichiro

Creates new party 1993 LDP in opposition LDP regains power

Ichiro Ozawa in foreign policy making:

http://www.iuj.ac.jp/research/wpap017.cfm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ichiro_Ozawa

The LDP desintegrates

Miyazawa Kiichi (1991-1993) Symbol of the old political generation Recruit scandal (‘89) Sagawa Kyubin scandal (‘92)

Kanemaru Shin convicted in 1992 for corruption

the end of a political generation and political culture

Miyazawa Kiichi

Struggle within the LDP

Obuchi Keizo vs Ozawa Ichiro Reforming the election system Ozawa becomes spokesman for

reformers: factions and money barrier for normal political role for Japan

Young generation for Ozawa; older for Obuchi

Ozawa and 40 mp’s reach out to opposition

Miyazawa stumbles

Fails to reform election system Economic recession worsens Motion of no-confidence by

opposition on 18-6-1993 accepted because of Ozawa’s support

Miyazawa disbands parliament and feels let down

The birth of an anti-LDP coalition: preparations

Masayoshi Takemura also leaves LDP and creates Sakigake 　さきがけ

Takemura reaches out to Morihiro Hosokawa’s Nihon Shinto 　日本新党

Ozawa creates Shinseito 　新政党

Ozawa fears coalition between LDP and Takemura-Hosokawa and starts negotiating with socialists for broad coalition against LDP

The birth of an anti-LDP coalition

Elections on 18-7-1993 New parties won many seats; LDP lost less than

expected (275-223) and main loss with JSP (136-70) Ozawa disappointed because no majority: choice up to

Takemura-Hosokawa: LDP or Ozawa? Why did socialists join forces with Ozawa?

New election system badly needed; impossible with LDP

Why did Takemura-Hosokawa choose for Ozawa? Ozawa offered prime minister position to Hosokawa Takemura had no choice and joined 6 parties in major

coalition against LDP

Hosokawa Morihiro

The Hosokawa government

Hosokawa prime minister; Doi speaker; Takemura spokesman

Morihiro Hosokawa: successor of a political dynasty Opposition from the region

Agenda: Reform of the election system

Accepted in 3-1994: 300 districts first pasts the post; 200 proportional representation

APL Hosokawa resigned in march 1994 after 9 months Coalition divided on article 9: Ozawa wants to change;

Takemura opposed to change End of the coalition in June 1994

Ozawa Ichiro pulls the strings…

The LDP regains power

LDP forms coalition with socialists and Sakigake: unlikely alliance in change for socialist prime minister

Tomiichi Murayama prime minister; Takeshita strong person

LDP considers SPJ as a faction

Murayama Tomiichi

Escalating social crisis

17-1-1995: Earthquake in Kobe Late and inadequate reaction

20-3-1995: Aum Shinrikyo’s sarin gas attack in Tokyo subway Poor control over religious groups

Socialist party under attack in 1995 higher house elections: maintains 16 from 46 seats

LDP regains full control at the start of 1996 but in a different context: coalitions become norm and transparency required

The economic engine sputters

Ryutaro Hashimoto (1996-1998) Takeshita faction Strong and nationalistic Reformer in Nakasone government

Deep recession: unemployment, bankcrisis, problem of US army bases in Okinawa and first elections according to new system

Hashimoto Ryutaro

Opposition inside and outside the government

Kan Naoto (Sakigake) Minister of Health Care Hemophilia patients infected with HIV virus Conflict between Kan and his ministry

Kan disappointed in own party and government: creates DPJ 日本民主党 with Hatoyama Yukio Right wing alternative to the LDP 57 mp’s join

LDP 239/500: minority government

Hashimoto as a ‘new leader’

Deregulation, reform and privatization Financial system Economy Education Administration (less ministries)

Coalition with Ozawa’s Shinshinto in 9-’97 Many members return to LDP Ozawa creates Liberal Party 自由党 Other members join the DPJ which becomes

largest opposition party

Hashimoto’s failure: the final end of the miracle?

1997: a turning point East Asian financial crisis Hokkaido Takushoku Bank Yamaichi Shoken Long Term Credit Bank

Hashimoto insecure about which measures to take

Higher House elections in 1998: LDP wins 44 seats in stead of expected 61; DPJ won 47; Com. 23

Obuchi: ‘cold pizza’ or wily diplomat?

Obuchi Keizo (1998-2000) Obuchi used media well Wants strong government: coalition with

Liberal party Ozawa’s conditions

Less ministries Answers in parliament by ministers

5-1999: 情報公開法 Mori Yohei: 天皇家の財布

Obuchi Keizo

Another unlikely partner: Komeito

Coalition joined by Komeito in 10-1999 Sokagakkai Against constitutional change For clean government Initially lower incomes but now elder middle

class electorate 1-4-2000: Ozawa kicked out of coalition One day later: brain hemorrhage but

Obuchi very popular

Nationalism, Russia and blunders

Mori Yoshiro (2000-2001) Emperor is center Change constitution to cope with North-Korea Restore relations with Russia

Nationalism was popular but Mori not General elections 25-6-2000

LDP loses majority; DPJ from 95 to 127

Mori steps back 3-2001

Mori Yoshiro

Koizumi: Japan’s Richard Gere?

Election of a new LDP president in front of Media

Choice between old and new Japan Yasukuni: Yes! Change the rules to elect the LDP

president Who is Junichiro Koizumi? New Japan; new LDP with strong and

open leadership (Tanaka, Fukuda and Takenaka)

Koizumi Junichiro

Koizumi and anti-terrorist legislation: http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/sais_review/v023/23.1shinoda.html

Real opposition against the LDP

9-2003: unification of DPJ and LP General elections of 10-2003

predicted to be ‘the day that the Berlin wall fell’.

Manifest Koizumi faces problems: Tanaka

out; conflict with Nakasone

The start of a new political era?

General elections 9-11-2003 LDP 247>237 DPJ 136>177 SPJ 18>6 Com. 20>9 Komeito 31>34

Komeito important DPJ real alternative for LDP

Elections in November 2003

Vraag en lectuur volgende week (25 november 2009)

Which post-war Japanese Prime Minister was most influential (domestically and internationally)?

Hoofdstuk 5 en 6