M Micro Stat

8/16/2019 M Micro Stat

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Surname : DOVOROKWA

Forenames : DANIEL

Registration no. : R0825!!R

"rogramme : #S$ %&ons' (at)emati$s

DANIEL DOVOROKWA WORK RELATED LEARNING REPORT

*


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CONTENTS PAGE

A$+no,-egements !

Aims

!

Organi/ations &istor1 5

1. ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE/STRUCTURE 7

*.* Organi/ationa- u-ture

*.2 Organi/ationa- Stru$ture 8

2. EXPECTATIONS 9

3. NATURE OF INDUSTRY/INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS 10

3.* Nationa- Statisti$s *0

3.2 Organi/ations Di4isions *0

3.2.* So$ia- an "ou-ation Statisti$s *0

3.2.2 E$onomi$ Statisti$s **

4. PRODUCT/SERVICE MARKETS 11

"ri$es Se$tion "u6-i$ations *2

onsumer "ri$e Ine7 %"I' *2

i4i- Engineering "ri$e Ine7 %E"I' *2

#ui-ing (ateria-s "ri$e Ine7 %#("I' *2

"o4ert1 Datum Lines %"DL' *3

. COMPANY SOCIETY CONNECTION 13

!. PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT 14

.* Strengt)s *!


2


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.2 Wea+nesses *5

7. CONFLICT "ET#EEN PERSONAL/ORGANIZATIONS O"$ECTIVES 17

%. KEY SKILLS DEVELOPMENT 1%

8.* S+i--s De4e-oe *8

8.2 Wor+ Done *8

8.2.* a-$u-ation o9 t)e "I *

8.2.2 a-$u-ation o9 ot)er ini$es 2

8.2.3 Ot)er Wor+ 2

8.3 Wor+s)os; Seminars an (eetings attene 28

9. OVERVIE# 29

10. RE&ENTRY 3

*0.* Re


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during the era of my industrial attachment at ZIMSTAT. The report will

highlight the organizational background of ZIMSTAT, its operations, the

resulting products and services it offers, giving an overview of how the

theory I acquired at the university managed to simplify the duties I

performed during my period in the Prices Statistics section..

ACKNO#LEDGEMENTS

I would like to profoundly express my gratitude to the ZIMSTAT STAFF

and management for their support during my period of placement. Special

thanks goes to my supervisors MR Chikadaya and Mr Damba who were

inspiring me during the whole period of my work related learning. I would

also want to give thanks to Mrs Takuva, Mrs Kafansiyanji, Miss Tombori

and Miss Chirochierwa for their support during my period of placement. I

would also like to thank the Midlands state University particularly the

department of Mathematics for their academic support which lead to the

successful compilation of this report. I would like to thank my lecturers for

the carrier guidance they gave to me.

AIMS

In this report I am aiming at highlighting my experiences during the work-

related learning period. How I failed or managed to carry out my tasks and


!


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how I practically applied Mathematics to fulfil some of my duties. This

report also aims at partly fulfilling the BSc (Hons) Mathematics degree as

required.

CHAPTER ONE (1)

ORGANIZATION’S HISTORY

The British South Africa Company (BSAC) established a Statistical Department in

1894 under the control of the first statistician ubert er!ey" ubert er!ey #as

$illed in the %atopo and the Ci!il Commissioner at arare (the then Salisbury)

too$ o!er his duties" The first Census #as ta$en in Bula#ayo (189&) for #hich

the minin' commissioner 'a!e estimated fi'ures of those in the minin' industry

and on the other hand the ci!il commissioner supplied the urban fi'ures" n

addition t#o years do#n the line another census #as conducted in Salisbury for

#hich data #as collected throu'h the Actin' %a'istrate"

By 19*4 !arious offices #ere en'a'ed +uite independently or liberally in the

collection of

Statistics" ,ital statistics #ere collected by the -ublic ealth Department criminal

statistics by the .a# Department and li!estoc$ statistics by the ,eterinary

Department postal statistics by the -ost/master 0eneral and the list 'oes on"

1"* C2T3A. STATSTCA. 55C

CS #as established in 19*6 and is 'o!erned by the Census and Statistics Act

Chapter 177& (formerly chapter 69)" The Departments ma:or functions include

conductin' censuses as #ell as the collection compilation analysis and

dissemination of statistical information relatin' to the social and economic life in

;imbab#e"

perationally the Department is di!ided into t#o sub:ects matter areas namely

the conomic Statistics and -opulation and Social Statistics di!isions and these

are further subdi!ided into branches and sections" The substanti!e di!isions


5


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branches and sections are supported by those sections pro!idin' common

statistical ser!ices such as Des$top -ublishin' and -rintin' Computin' and n/

ser!ice Statistical Trainin' and the non/statistical common ser!ices of

Administration and 5inance"

t #as opinionated that efficiency and reliability #ould be impro!ed if these

obli'ations #ere centrali


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department #ithin the %inistry of conomic -lannin' and De!elopment and

continues to report to the same ministry althou'h the ministry #as later mer'ed

#ith the %inistry of 5inance in 198*"The Department is currently operatin' under

the %inistry of conomic De!elopment and -lannin' follo#in' the separation of

the %inistry of 5inance and the %inistry of conomic De!elopment #hich #as

:ointly operatin' as the %inistry of 5inance and conomic De!elopment up to

%ay *77&" -rior to :oinin' the %inistry of 5inance and conomic De!elopment

#as under the -resident and Cabinet ffice"

Thou'h the CS tries to pro!ide reliable statistical information it is limited by a

number of constrains that is limited resources lac$ of comprehensi!e and

sustainable trainin' inade+uate modern technolo'ical resources for data

collection processin' and dissemination as #ell as lo# response rate"

1.3 DEVELOPMENTS

1.3.1 SEMI-AUTONOMOUS AGENCY

The Central Statistical ffice is sub:ected to !arious challen'es in the e@ecution

of its duties as #ell as in the pro!ision of reliable and rele!ant statistics that

adhere and meet the needs of the recipients of their ser!ices" The Department

finds itself cau'ht in a !icious cycle #here national statistics has been under/

appreciated under/!alued and under/in!ested" i'h staff/turno!er outdatedstatistical le'islation and lo# response rates constrained and hindered statistics

de!elopmental acti!ities and operations furthermore has resulted in production

of outdated statistical information unfit for use in policy processes"

t is a'ainst this bac$'round that CS is #or$in' on the transformation to a

semi/autonomous a'ency and the creation of a 2ational Statistical System

(2SS) careful decisions #ere made in order to best de!elop statistics most

efficiently and effecti!ely and reform #as made across the #hole 2ational

Statistical System" So that the statistical body can be mana'ed strate'ically

ma$in' efficient use of the scarce resources to meet the needs of its users" This

transformation e@ercise #ill enable the or'ani


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been set up includin' the chairin' and passin' of the bill into an act by

parliament" n this re'ard the or'anisation #as successfully transformed as a

semi/autonomous a'ency on the 1*th

of %ay *717 as ;%BAB> 2AT2A. STATCA . A02C (;%STAT)

The su''ested ,ision for the ne# or'ani


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-ro!idin' a contact point for international or'anisations and forei'n

institutions in need of statistics on ;imbab#e"

1.3.3The coe !"#$e% o& 'he e "*ec+ "e,

Confidentiality

Integrity

Professional independence

ccountability

International standards

!edication

daptive to change

Courteous

1. MAIN ROLES O THE ZIMSTAT

To provide statistics to the government, business community and general

public as "ell as international organi#ations for use in planning and

decision ma$ing

To co%ordinate statistical activities so as to produce statistics that are

consistent

;%STATS is a#are that both parties of the ;imbab#ean economy are 'earin'

up for an economic reco!ery path hence this ine!itably 'enerate increasin'

demand for better statistical information" %a:or decisions are bein' made

concernin' economic and or'ani


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The increasin' importance of pri!ate sector acti!ities has made it imperati!e to

stren'then the collection of statistics in this sector of the economy"

*. ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE/STRUCTURE

*.* OR=ANI>A?IONAL @L?@RE

Organi/ationa- $u-ture $an 6e es$ri6e as t)e ominant 4a-ues esouse 61

an organi/ation; t)e )i-oso)1 t)at guies an organi/ations o-i$1 to,ar

em-o1ees an $ustomers; t)e 6asi$ assumtions an 6e-ie9s t)at are s)are

61 mem6ers o9 an organi/ation or in9orma--1 as; t)e ,a1 t)ings are one

aroun )ere. ?a+ing a $-oser -oo+ at t)e ,ie arra1 o9 t)e a6o4e e9initions

t)e1 un$o4er a $entra- t)eme o9 organi/ationa- $u-ture re9erring to a s1stem

o9 s)are meaning.

u-ture im-ies t)e e7isten$e o9 $ertain imensions or $)ara$teristi$s t)at are

$-ose-1 asso$iate an intereenent; an )as istin$t imensions t)at $an

6e measure. Our organi/ation )as a $u-ture $)ara$teri/e 61:

• Dire$tion; ,)i$) is t)e egree to ,)i$) t)e organi/ation $reates $-ear

o6e$ti4es an er9orman$e e7e$tations.


*0


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• Integration; ,)i$) is t)e egree to ,)i$) units ,it)in t)e organi/ation

are en$ourage to oerate in a $oorinate manner.

•(anagement onta$t; ,)i$) is t)e egree to ,)i$) managers ro4ie

$-ear $ommuni$ation; assistan$e an suort to t)eir su6orinates.

• Ientit1; ,)i$) is t)e egree to ,)i$) mem6ers ienti91 ,it) t)e

organi/ation as a ,)o-e rat)er t)an ,it) t)eir arti$u-ar ,or+ grou or

9ie- o9 ro9essiona- e7ertise.

2.1.1 VISION AND MISSION STATEMENTS

Belo# is the !ision and mission of the or'ani


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• nte'rity and credibility To create and maintain public trust in official

statistics by fully e@eicisin' professional independence and by

proacti!ely promotin' best practises includin' transparency in data

production and transparency in data production and dissemination

• Fuality consciousness To de!elop and maintain a system #ide +uality

culture throu'h inno!ation research and creati!ity to produce !alue

added products ser!ices and by de!elopin' frame#or$s for assessin'

and enhancin' the +uality of such products and ser!ices


*2


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ORGAN GRAM


*3

E,--, S)+)(),(

D)5 D*,)-*6

P-+)- +8 S-,+ S)+)(),(

D)5 D*,)-*6

In$ome Ana-1sis

%Assistant Dire$tor '

"rou$tion Statisti$s

%Assistant Dire$tor '

"rou$tionBInustria- Statisti$s

Agri$u-ture Statisti$s

Foreign ?rae Statisti$s

%Statisti$ians an -er+s'

Finan$e

%Statisti$ians'

%-er+s'

Nationa- A$$ounts

%Statisti$ians'

"ri$es

%Statisti$ians'

%-er+s'

&ouse)o- sur4e1s

%Assistant Dire$tor'

Aministration

&uman Resour$es

Registr1 an Finan$e

"ri4ate Se$retar1

So$ia- Statisti$s #ran$)

%Assistant Dire$tor'

artogra)1

(aing

%"ro4in$ia- suer4isors'

%Fie- enumerators'

En4ironment

=ener

&ea-t)

Em-o1ment

Cui$ia- an So$ia- We-9are

Li4ing $onitions

I(?

%Statisti$ians'

%-er+s'

DIRECTOR OF CENSUS AND STATISTICS


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1.10 CHAIN O COMMAND

At the !ery epitome of the or'ani


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1.12 S'"'%'c% "7 S$!e+% 'h 'he Z5"5e N"'o"# S'"'%'c"#

A*ec+

1.12.1 S'"'%'c% 'h ZIMSTAT c#$7e,

- A'riculture Statistics

/mployment Statistics

/ducation Statistics

/ mmi'ration and Tourism Statistics

/n!ironment Statistics

/Pce% S'"'%'c%

/5inance Statistics

/Trade Statistics

/-roduction Statistics

/2ational Accounts

/Social Statistics

/0ender Statistics

/ealth and ,ital Statistics

/Carto'raphy/Gudiciary and Social Statistics

/-opulation and ousin' Census Statistics

Soc"# 7c"'o% c" 5e "cce%%e7 'ho$*h ZIMDAT 7"'"5"%e.

1.12.2 M" S$!e+% 'h ZIMSTAT c#$7e,

/Consumer -rice Sur!ey

/nternational Comparison of -rices

/A'riculture and .i!estoc$ sur!ey

/Business Tendency Sur!ey

/ncome consumption and e@penditure sur!ey


*5


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2. EXPECTATIONS

#e9ore I oine t)e >I(S?A? I )a a s-ig)t iea o9 )o, t)e organi/ation

oerate. I +ne, t)at t)e1 most-1 ea-t ,it) t)e statisti$s o9 t)e

$ountr1 t)e1 $onu$te $ensuses an a-so rou$e e$onomi$

ini$ators -i+e t)e onsumer "ri$e Ine7 %"I' an t)e =ross

Domesti$ "rou$t %=D"'.

I t)ere9ore e7e$te t)at I ,ou- rea--1 unerstan t)e use o9 t)ese ini$es

an )o, t)e1 are $omute. As er m1 e7e$tations I got to unerstan t)e

use an imortan$e o9 t)ese ini$es an man1 ot)er -i+e t)e &armonise

onsumer "ri$e ine7%&"I'; i4i- Engineering "ri$e Ine7 an t)e

#ui-ing (ateria-s "ri$e Ine7.

I a-so e7e$te a-- t)e 9ormu-ae to 6e reai-1 a4ai-a6-e su$) t)at one $an ust

a-1 it to t)e re-e4ant ata 6ut it ,as not ne$essari-1 so. A-- t)e 9ormu-ae

,ere on t)e $omuter an one )a to 9ee t)e $-eane ata an 9o--o, t)e

not so eas1 stes 9or t)e $omuter to $omute t)e ini$es. ?o +no, t)e

9ormu-ae an )o, to manua--1 $a-$u-ate t)e ini$es using a sam-e o9 t)e


*


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ata; I )a to rea t)e re-e4ant -iterature. ?)e a$tua- $a-$u-ation o9 t)e

ini$es )o,e4er $annot 6e one manua--1 as t)e amount o9 ata use is -arge

an manua- $a-$u-ation ,ou- reuire a -onger erio.

Cust as mu$) as I e7e$te to get )e- 9rom m1 suer4isors on most

ro$eeings; m1 e7e$tations ,ere rig)t. A-so $ontrar1 to m1 e7e$tations

o9 a -arge organi/ation; I got to ,or+ ,it) a -ot o9 eo-e ,)ose attitue ,as

9rien-1 an o9 a )e-9u- nature.

3. NATURE OF INDUSTRY/INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS

3.* NA?IONAL S?A?IS?IS

?)e >I(S?A? is t)e 6iggest statisti$s 6oar in >im6a6,e. ?)ere are some

sma-- nonA?IONS DIVISIONS

?)e organi/ation )as t,o maor i4isions; name-1 So$ia- an "ou-ation

Statisti$s an E$onomi$ Statisti$s as s)o,n ear-ier on 61 t)e organi/ations

organ gram.

3.2.* S-,+ +8 P-+)- S)+)(),(


*


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?)is i4ision $onsists o9 t,o maor 6ran$)es;

a' &ouse)o- Sur4e1s

?)is 6ran$) $onsists o9 t)e )ouse)o- an $artogra)1 se$tion; ,)i$) ea-s

,it) t)e a$tua- 9ie-,or+. ?)e sta99s o9 t)is se$tion $onu$t t)e reuire

sur4e1s 9or a-- t)e ot)er se$tions an o t)e entire maing i9 reuire.

66 Demogra)1 an So$ia- Statisti$s

?)is 6ran$) $onsists o9 t)e 9o--o,ing se$tions:

i. &ea-t) Statisti$s

ii. So$ia- Statisti$s

iii. ensuses

i4. La6our an Eu$ation Statisti$s

3.2.2 E,--, S)+)(),(

?)is i4ision again )as t,o maor 6ran$)es;

a' "rou$tion Statisti$s; ,)i$) $onsists o9:

i. Inustria- Statisti$s

ii. Agri$u-ture Statisti$s

iii. Foreign ?rae Statisti$s


*8


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6' In$ome Ana-1sis; ,)i$) )as t)e 9o--o,ing se$tions:

i. Nationa- A$$ounts Statisti$s

ii. Finan$e Statisti$s

iii. "ri$es Statisti$s

3.2.3 ?)e a6o4e -iste t,o i4isions oerate uner t)e t,o eut1 ire$tors

an t)e 9our 6ran$)es oerate uner t)e 9our assistant ire$tors. ?)e senior

e7e$uti4e o99i$er is in $)arge o9 t)e aministration; t)e -i6rar1; t)e t1ing

oo- an t)e registr1 eartments.

4. PRODUCT /SERVICE MARKETS

As s)o,n in t)e organisations organ gram t)ere are se4era- 6ran$)es an

se$tions t)at ma+e u t)e SO; a-- ,)i$) u6-is) i99erent ata 9or i99erent

mar+ets. I ersona--1 ,as ,or+ing uner t)e "ri$es Se$tion; ,)i$) is uner

t)e in$ome ana-1sis 6ran$).

P*,( S,)- P',+)-(


*


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?)e "ri$es Se$tion ea-s on-1 ,it) ata ,)i$) $on$erns t)e ri$es o9

$ommoities or ser4i$es. ?)e se$tion $a-$u-ates an u6-is)es a num6er o9

ini$es ,)i$) are most-1 use in t)e 6usiness se$tor.

C-(* P*, I8 CPI6

?)e &ouse)o- Sur4e1 Se$tion $onu$ts t)e onsumer "ri$e Sur4e1 %"S'.

?)e ata is use 61 t)e "ri$es Se$tion to $a-$u-ate t)e onsumer "ri$e

Ine7. ?)e "I is an e$onomi$ ini$ator t)at is 4er1 use9u- in e$ision<

ma+ing 61 t)e go4ernment; 6usiness an ot)er se$tors o9 t)e e$onom1. A

"ri$e Ine7 measures t)e a4erage $)ange in ri$es o9 a 6as+et o9 $onsumer

goos an ser4i$es as a er$entage o9 t)e a4erage ri$e o9 t)e same goos

an ser4i$es at a re4ious or 6ase erio. ?)e "I is use as a measurement

o9 9oo an a-- items in9-ation. It is a-so use in t)e etermination o9 6an+

interest rates an t)e ur$)asing o,er o9 t)e $onsumer.

P*-8,* P*, I8 PPI6

?)e ""I measures t)e $)anges in t)e $ost o9 rou$tion 9rom one erio to

t)e ot)er. In genera- t)e ""I measures t)e in9-ation e7erien$e in t)e

rou$tion o9 goos.

C: E;*; P*, I8 CEPI6

?)e E"I measures t)e $)anges in t)e ri$es o9 $i4i- engineering materia-s.

"8; M+)*+( P*, I8 "MPI6


20


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?)e #("I measures t)e $ost in t)e rou$tion o9 6ui-ing materia-s 9rom

one time erio to anot)er. It a-so measures t)e in9-ation e7erien$e in t)e

rou$tion o9 6ui-ing materia-.

P-:*)5 D+) L( PDL6

?)e "DL reresents t)e $ost o9 a gi4en stanar o9 -i4ing t)at must 6e

attaine i9 a erson is eeme not to 6e oor. It is $a-$u-ate 9rom t)e

minimum nees 6as+et; ,)i$) is $onsistent ,it) t)e re9eren$es o9 t)e oor

ini4iua-s an )ouse)o-s in >im6a6,e.

. COMPANY&SOCIETY CONNECTION

+6 R+)-(


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'6 R+)-( =)< )


23/48

.* STRENG?TS

. D(,

W)en I oine t)e entra- Statisti$a- O99i$e I aime at 6eing o9 m1

6est is$i-ine an to a -arge e7tent; I t)in+ I a$)ie4e t)at. I attene

,or+ on a-most a-- reuire a1s an ,as on-1 a6sent 9or $-ear

reasons. I ,as ne4er in4o-4e in an1 emonstration a$ts nor ,as I

e4er ,arne o9 m1 6e)a4iour on an1 o$$asion.

. G*+(; = ,-,)(

Ne, $on$ets ,ere introu$e a num6er o9 times an I ,as in genera-

a6-e to gras t)em ,it)in a s)ort sa$e o9 time. (ost o9 t)e ne,

$on$ets in4o-4e mat)emati$a- 9ormu-as; ,)i$) reuire tota-

a$$ura$1 9or t)e ata to 6e $onsiere re-ia6-e. I ,as a-so introu$e

to a -ot o9 (i$roso9t E7$e- $on$ets; ,)i$) I soon -ent to )e- me in

t)e ata ro$essing.

. S*:(-

I ,as a6-e to ,or+ ,it) 4er1 minima- suer4ision. (ost ,or+ )a

target ates 61 ,)i$) it )a to 6e 9inis)e; as ata users ,i-- 6e

an7ious-1 ,aiting 9or t)e ata reuiring one to o )isB)er art in time

,it)out mu$) 9o--o, u.


23


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:. A8:, +8 ,*),(

Li+e an1 ot)er ini4iua- I mae m1 mista+es 6ut I ,as rea1 to ta+e

a4i$e 9rom m1 $o--eagues. I a-so a$$ete $riti$isms ,it)out

ersona-ising an1 issue. W)ere I neee to get ne, instru$tions I

soug)t so as to reo t)e ,or+ $orre$t-1.

!.2 #EAKNESSES

I sometimes $ou- not )an-e t)e ressure 9rom t)e ,or+ ,e ,ere gi4en

an m1 atien$e to to-erate an1t)ing ,as t)ere61 us)e a,a1.

I ,as a-so sometimes too emotiona- o4er minor uarre-s ,it) m1

,or+mates an t)at s-ig)t-1 a99e$te t)e ,a1 I ,or+e.


2!


25/48

. CONFLICT "ET#EEN PERSONAL/ ORGANIZATION

O"$ECTIVES

One inevitable part of organizational life is conflict, stemming as much from

structural characteristics, and as much from incompatible personalities.

Generally, an organization has scarce resources, employees with diverse

interests and outlooks other attributes that make conflict a constant reality.

Conflict can be defined as that behaviour by organization members which is

expended in opposition to the other members, and occurs when two or more

parties whose interests or goals appear to be incompatible.

Resolving Conflicts

One way I resolved conflicts was by increasing interaction. I figured that the

more I interacted with people the more likely I was to find common interests

and bonds that facilitated cooperation.

I also resolved some of my conflicts by following the formal authority

channel. I discovered that the authority that supervisors have over

conflicting parties is important enough and its usage spread so widely that it

can be termed a resolving technique.


25


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Another way I found effective that I also used to solve conflicts was by

reducing interdependence for by being independent wherever possible

reduces quarrel. By also merging myself with the other conflicting party I

figured I could expand my boundaries and absorb the source of the conflict.

An example of a conflict I personally dealt with was when I was asked to

complete some urgent task which required some time to be completed, and

was also supposed to be working on my work-related learning report since it

was almost due. To solve this, I had to merge myself with the conflicting

party and do the urgent task first and then continue with my report.

Some of the conflicts I had arose from getting not so much pleasant answers

from my workmates, which was mostly a result of too much dependence and

to resolve that I had to reduce that dependency. Some other conflicts were

personal and I resorted to following the formal channel of grievances.


2


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%. KEY SKILLS DEVELOPMENT

%.1 SKILLS DEVELOPED

a. ommuni$ation S+i--s

I inee got to -earn a -ot o9 $ommuni$ation s+i--s. I got to -earn )o, to

,rite interna- -etters; norma--1 re9erre to as memoranums. E


28/48

an emaning one. @ner t)is )eaing I ,i-- out-ine t)e ,or+ I ,as

in4o-4e in an s)o, some o9 t)e te$)ni$a- s+i--s I e4e-oe as ,i-- 6e

6roug)t out in t)e e7-anations.

.8.2.* C+,+)- -> )


29/48

erios; t)en t)e Lase1res "ri$e ine7 ,i-- gi4e us a measure o9 t)e o4era--

ri$e $)ange o9 t)is 6uget.

T+' 1@ P*, +8 +))5 8+)+

+o po p1 p* p=

Bread 177 8 17 17 1*

Su'ar 67 17 1* 14 1?

&7 17 8 1* 17

Gam *& 1* 1& 18 *7

"ethod #$ %se of the standard &as!eyres Price 'nde( formula

(1)*00!

*

!

*

∑

∑

i

ioio

i

ioit

t

q p

q p

I

In 9ormu-a %*'; t)e 9irst su6s$rit ini$ates t)e item %i = 1, 2, 3, 4) ,)i-e t)e se$on

su6s$rit is 9or t)e erio %t = 0, 1, 2, 3).

?a6-e 2 s)o,s t)e ini$es in t)e -ast $o-umn o6taine as a ratio %s$a-e 61 a 9a$tor o9 *00'

o9 t)e sum o9 $ross rou$ts o9 t)e 4a-ues in t)e -ast ro, t)e sum o9 t)e 6ase $ross

rou$ts 6eing t)e enominator.

T+' 2 I8 C-)+)- (; )


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ie I0 G 2300B2300H*00 G *00

I* G 2*5B2300H*00 G **3.55

I2 G 3030B2300H*00 G *3*.3*3

I3 G 3320B2300H*00 G *!!.3!83

?)e sour$e 9or su$) ata is a )ouse)o- 6uget sur4e1 -i+e t)e In$ome onsumtion an

E7eniture Sur4e1 %IES'. An as uantit1 ata is se-om a4ai-a6-e 9rom t)e sur4e1;

,e )a4e to ma+e o ,it) t)e e7eniture instea i.e. re$ore amount e1 sent on #rea;

re$ore amount e2 sent on Sugar an so on. We a-so nee to re$ast t)e Lase1res

9ormu-a a$$oring-1 as s)o,n in (et)o 2.

"ethod )$ %se of E(!enditure ,eights and Price elatives in the &as!eyres

Price 'nde( formula (2)*00*

0

∑

p

pw

W I t o

o

P

?)e t,o 9ormu-as are ienti$a- sin$e t)e se$on one is eri4e 9rom t)e stanar 9ormu-a

as 9o--o,s:

(3)

∑

∑

∑

∑

∑

∑

o

o

io

o

o

o

i

o

i

w

p

pw

q p

q p p

p

q p

q p

0

0

0

0 ; ,)ere pq = w (expenditure)


30


31/48

A-so in ra$ti$e; instea o9 using t)e 6ase erio e7enitures; t)e norma- ro$eure is to

$a-$u-ate 6ase erio e7enitures on ea$) item as a er$entage o9 tota- 6ase erio

e7eniture an t)en to use t)ese er$entages as ,eig)ts t)roug)out t)e $a-$u-ation. ?)is

ro$eure 9or $a-$u-ating t)e %er$entage' ,eig)ts is i--ustrate in ?a6-e 3.

T+' 3 #;*- E8)* D+)+

Base %onth

+o po po+o #o

Bread 177 8 877 =4"68

Su'ar 67 17 677 =7"4=5lour &7 17 &77 *1"64

Gam *& 1* =77 1="74

Total *=77 177"77

?)e wo 9or #rea is o6taine as %800 B 2300' H *00 G 3!.8; 9or Sugar as %00B2300' H

*00 G 30.!3 an so on. In some $ountries; it is 9oun more $on4enient 9or ,eig)ts to sum

to * 000 or e4en *0 000 ena6-ing t)e assignment o9 4er1 sma-- ,eig)ts to some items. I9

t)is is one; an austment %i4iing 61 *0 or *00' ,i-- nee to 6e in$-ue in t)e ine7

9ormu-a.

?)e ne7t ta6-e sets out t)e ine7 $omutation using 9ormu-a %2'

T+' 4 I8 C+,+)- (; >-*+ 26

Base%onth

%onth 1 %onth * %onth =

po #o p1 p1Ipo #op1Ipo p* p*Ipo #op*Ipo p= p=Ipo #op=Ipo

Bread 8 =4"68 17 1"*& 4="468= 17 1"*& 4="468= 1* 1"&777 &*"16=9


3*


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Su'ar 17 =7"4= 1* 1"*7 =?"&*16 14 1"47 4*"?786 1? 1"?777 48"?9&6

5lour 17 *1"64 8 7"87 16"=91= 1* 1"*7 *?"7867 17 1"7777 *1"6=91

Gam 1* 1="74 1& 1"*& 1?"=74= 18 1"&7 19"&?&* *7 1"???6 *1"6=91

Total 177"77 11="?9&6 1=1"6=91 144"=468

In ?a6-e ! a6o4e; t)e -ast $o-umn o9 ea$) mont) s)o,s t)e point contribution to t)e ine7

9rom ea$) o9 t)e ! $ommoities. ?)at is; 9or ea$) $ommoit1; its oint $ontri6ution is t)e

rou$t o9 t)e 6ase ,eig)t %wo ) an t)e ri$e re-ati4e ,it) t)e enominator 6eing t)e 6ase

ri$e. ?)is means t)at ,)en t)e se$i9i$ation o9 a $ommoit1 $)anges; a 6ase ri$e 9or

t)e su6stitute )as to 6e 9oun usua--1 61 assumtions an imutation. ?)is situation $an

6e a4oie 61 using t)e moi91ing t)e Lase1res "ri$e ine7 9ormu-a.

?)e moi9i$ation reuires t,o $)anges to t)e 9ormu-a in %2'. ?)ese are:

*. In t)e $urrent mont); ta+e as ,eig)ts t)e oint $ontri6utions o9 t)e re4ious mont);

an

2. ?)e ri$e re-ati4e 9or t)e $urrent mont) uses t)e re4ious mont)s ri$e as t)e

enominator.

"ethod *$ "odified &as!eyres 'nde( (-)∑

*

*

t

t

t t p

pw I

We s)ou- get t)e same resu-t sin$e 9ormu-a %!' is t)e same as 9ormu-a %2' as i--ustrate

in t)e ne7t e7ression; ,)i$) 9or sim-i$it1 uses $ontri6ution o9 an item in erio 3:


32


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(9)

0

3

0

2

3

*

2

0

*

2

3

*

2

*

2

3

2

p

pw

p

p

p

p

p

pw

p

p

p

pw

p

pw o

T+' M-8>8 L+(5*( P*, I8 ,+,+)- (; >-*+ 46

Base%onth


#o po p1 p1Ipo #1J#op1Ipo p* p*Ip1 #*J#1p*Ip1

p= p=Ip* #=J#*p=Ip*

Bread =4"68 8 17 1"*&777 4="468= 17 1"77777 4="468= 1* 1"*7777 &*"16=9

Su'ar =7"4= 17 1* 1"*7777 =?"&*16 14 1"1???6 4*"?786 1? 1"14*8? 48"?9&6

5lour *1"64 17 8 7"87777 16"=91= 1* 1"&7777 *?"7867 17 7"8==== *1"6=91

Gam 1="74 1* 1& 1"*&777 1?"=74= 18 1"*7777 19"&?&* *7 1"11111 *1"6=91

Total 177"7 11="?9&6 1=1"6=91 144"=468

?)e mont)-1 in9-ation is t)us 9oun 61 $a-$u-ating t)e er$entage $)ange in t)e ine7 o9

t)e $urrent mont) $omare ,it) t)at o9 t)e re4ious mont). ?)at is; mont) on mont)

in9-ation rate 9or mont) 3 is gi4en 61 %*!!.3!8B*3*.3*


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is 6et,een t)e remaining t,o. (et)o 3 %(oi9ie Lase1res' is t)en $)osen 9or t)e

9o--o,ing reasons:

*. It is $on$etua--1 an oerationa--1 more satis9a$tor1 t)an Lase1res 9ormu-a

%met)o t,o'.

2. Oerationa--1; 6ot) met)os %2 an 3' reuire t)e statisti$ian to $o--e$t ri$es o9 a

su6stitute not on-1 in t)e $urrent mont) %,)en a su6stitute is mae' 6ut its ri$e in t)e

re4ious mont).

(et)o t,o t)en reuires t)e statisti$ian to imute an arti9i$ia- 6ase ri$e 9or t)e

su6stitute ,)ereas ,it) t)e moi9ie met)o; t)is is not ne$essar1. ?)is means t)at

in$ororating ne, se$i9i$ations into t)e ine7 6as+et is mu$) easier.

3. A-so t)ere is no nee to uate t)e 6ase ri$e 9i-e. Wit) met)o t,o; items t)at ,i--

)a4e -ost t)eir 6ase ri$es are not in$-ue in t)e ine7 $omutation a-t)oug) ri$e

uotations are 6eing $o--e$te $ontinuous-1. W)ere t)ere )as 6een an in4ersion o9

ri$e mo4ements i.e. ,)ere t)e ri$e o9 a su6stitute is )ig)er t)an t)at 6eing re-a$e;

its imute 6ase ri$e is -ess t)an t)e o- one. ?)is ,ou- resu-t in an o4er estimation

o9 t)e ine7.

!. ?)e ,eig)ting stru$ture o9 t)e moi9ie Lase1res ine7 is 1nami$; rat)er t)an

stati$. Wit) t)e Lase1res 9ormu-a %met)o t,o'; ri$e re-ati4es ot p p are mu-ti-ie

61 a 9i7e 6ase ,eig)t wo to rou$e t)e $urrent ine7.


3!


35/48

#o #=

C1 =4"68 =?"14

C* =7"4= =="6=

C= *1"64 1&"7?

C4 1="74 1&"7?

Total 177"77 177"77

Wit) t)e moi9ie Lase1res 9ormu-a; t)e 6ase ,eig)ts are

automati$a--1 uate 9rom one erio to t)e ne7t an t)e ine7

9or time t is t)e rou$t o9 t)e ri$e re-ati4e *t t p p an t)e

,eig)t wt-1. ?)e insert oosite $omares t)e origina- 6ase ,eig)ts ,it) t)e ne,

,eig)ts in "erio 3 in er$entage terms.

5. As note a6o4e; in t)is e7am-e 6ot) t)e traitiona- an t)e moi9ie 9ormu-as

rou$e t)e same resu-ts 6e$ause t)ere )as 6een no su6stitution o9 se$i9i$ations

mae.

. ?)e rin$ia- ra, 6a$+ o9 t)e moi9ie 9ormu-a is t)at it ,i-- roagate inut ri$e

errors 6ut t)is $an 6e a4oie ,it) a ,e-- -)


36/48

Base%onth


#o po p1 p1Ipo #op1Ipo p* p*Ip1 >7p*Ip1 p= p=Ip* >7p=Ip*

A1 =4"68 8 17 1"*&777 4="468= 17 1"77777 =4"68*? 1* 1"*7777 41"6=?

A* =7"4= 17 1* 1"*7777 =?"&*16 14 1"1???6=&"&7166

1? 1"14*8?

=4"666*= A= *1"64 17 8 7"87777 16"=91= 1* 1"&7777 =*"?1 17 7"8==== 18"11&94

A4 1="74 1* 1& 1"*&777 1?"=74= 18 1"*7777 1&"?48 *7 1"11111 14"48864

Total 177"7 11="?9&6 118"&4*4 179"1169

8.2.3 O)


37/48

%.3 #ORKS?OPS SEMINARS AND MEETINGS ATTENDED

I ,as a-so in4o-4e in some seminars at t)e SO. ?)e 9irst I attene ,as a one


38/48

10. RE&ENTRY

10.1 R&)*5

?)e one


39/48

During t)e atta$)ment erio I ,as a-so a6-e to rea-ise m1 a$aemi$ ,ea+nesses an t)at

in m1 re


40/48

THE END

COMPILED BY : DANIEL DOVOROKWA

SIGNATURES

Statitician ( !r"#i$ada%a ) &&&&&&&&&&&&.

Senior Statitician ( !r.da'ba ) &&&&&&&&&&&&.

itant irector ( !r.*.+aruina ) &&&&&&&&&&&&.

Sta'p


!0


41/48

9. OVERVIE#

?)ere are a num6er o9 t)eories an 9ormu-as t)at I 9oun m1se-9 $onstant-1 re9erring to.

?)e ,or+


42/48

The study covers the period 1987 to 1995.

Price indices were used to analyse the price trend of eight basic consumer commodities

namely, Bread, Maize Meal, Meat, Milk, Fruits and Vegetables, Rent, Medical Care and

Public Transport.

D+)+ (-*,

?)e ine7 num6ers 9or t)ese $ommoities 9or t)e erio *8 to *8 ,ere ta+en 9rom

"ri$es Se$tions mont)-1 rintouts. I )a4e use ini$es 9rom t)e Lo,er In$ome =rou

6e$ause t)ese $onsumer $ommoities ,ere 6etter $o4ere uner t)is grou t)an t)e

&ig)er In$ome =rou. ?)e 6ase 1ear 9or t)ese ini$es ,as *80G*00. For t)e erio

*0 to*5; ini$es ,ere o6taine 9rom mont)-1 rintouts 9or t)e Nationa- onsumer

"ri$e Ine7 $omi-e 61 t)e "ri$es Se$tion an t)e 6ase 1ear is *0G *00.

M)-* 19%7 & 19%9

*8 *88 *8*80G*00 *0G*00 *80G*00 *0G*00 *80G*00 *0G*00

#rea 22*.0 !.* 22*.0 !.* 253. 3.

(ai/e (ea- 33. . 33. . 35.! **!.

(eat 2!.5 *.5 23.8 85.2 3!!. .

(i-+ 2!.5 *.8 2*.8 5. 303.8 88.*

Fruits Vegeta6-es 255. !.2 2.3 8.2 30.8 8.0


!2


43/48

Rent *8.0 5*. *.! 52.0 20!. 5.!

(ei$a- are *38.0 !0.0 225.! 5.3 !8. *35.

"u6-i$ ?ransort 220. !.0 2!.2 2.3 22.5 .*

?o re6ase t)e series *80 G *00 to *0 G *00; I i4ie ea$) ine7 o9 t)e series 61 t)e

ine7 9or a-- items 9or *0 %6ase *80 G *00' t)en mu-ti-ie 61 *00.

e.g. Re6ase ine7 9or 6rea G 22*.0 × *00

3!!.

G !.08

G 33. × *00

3!!.

G .8

A-- Items ini$es 9or t)ese $onsumer $ommoities ,ere $a-$u-ate 9or ea$) 1ear 9or t)e

erio *8 to *5 using t)e ,eig)t t)at ea$) one $arries in t)e $a-$u-ation o9 t)e

onsumer "ri$e Ine7.

T+' 2 A I)( I8

Y+* "*+

8

M+

M+

M+) MB F*)(

V;

)+'(

R) M8

,+

C+*

P',

T*+(

-*)

A

I)(

#;


44/48

1992 *.5 *3. *8.* *88. 200.! *!.0 *!!.! 223.3 *5.!

1993 30. 23.3 25.3 2!. 2!.0 205. *.3 255.0 23.!

1994 358.5 3!. 305. 30!.3 !!5. 2!3.3 !*5. 2. 3*.8

199 !0. !*. 30.! 355. 5!.! 2. !88.8 355.* 35.

?o get t)e A-- Items Ine7M t)e rou$ts o9 item ,eig)t × ine7 are summe an t)en

i4ie 61 t)e tota- ,eig)ts 9or a-- eig)t items.

i.e. ,eig)t × ine7

,eig)t

e.g. ?)e A-- Items Ine7M 9or *8 is:

%2.8 × !.*' + %!.3 × .' + %.2 × *.5' + . . . + %3.0 × !.0' ÷ !0.

@sing a t)ree


45/48

Te See % A"#+%%

0

90

100

190

200

290

300

390

-00

1:;< 1:;; 1:;: 1::0 1::1 1::2 1::3 1::- 1::9

Peo7 Ye"%

I7e=>Te7I7e=

Te7

R()( +8 F8;(

?)e tren -ine s)o,s a genera- u,ar an smoot) in$rease in t)e $ost o9 $ommoities

,it) t)e $ur4e rising more rai-1 6et,een ** an *5. ?)is s)ar in$rease ,as

ro6a6-1 ue to se4era- 9a$tors a99e$ting t)e e$onom1 uring t)is erio. Due to ESA"

ri$es 9or 6asi$ $ommoities ,ere e$ontro--e an su6siies remo4e 9rom $ommoities

-i+e 9res) mi-+; 6rea; mai/e mea-; et$. ?)e **B2 roug)ts resu-te in a rise in


!5


46/48

rou$er ri$es o9 agri$u-tura- rou$ts $ausing in$reases in t)e retai- ri$es o9 items -i+e

mai/e mea-; mi-+; meat an 6rea. >im6a6,e a-so )a to imort most o9 t)ese

$ommoities uring t)is erio. W)i-e t)e ri$e tren $ontinues u,ars; t)ere is a

signi9i$ant 9a-- in t)e rate o9 in$rease 9rom *3 to aroun *. In t)e ta6-e 6e-o, I )a4e

s)o,n t)e 1ear on 1ear er$entage $)anges; 9or t)e ,)o-e erio.

T+' 4 P*,)+; *+) -> ,


47/48

Pece'"*e R"'e o& Ch"*e

0

9

10

19

20

29

30

39

-0

-9

90

1:;< 1:;; 1:;: 1::0 1::1 1::2 1::3 1::- 1::9

Peo7

? Ch"*e

? Ch"*e

on$-usion an omments to t)e =ra)

#et,een *8 an *0 ri$es ,ere $ontro--e 61 t)e go4ernment an some 6asi$

$ommoities ,ere su6siise t)ere9ore t)e rate o9 in$rease ,as a-most $onstant 9or a -ong


!


48/48

time. ?)e initia- in9-ationar1 e99e$ts o9 ESA" are s)o,n 61 t)e rai in$rease in t)e

er$entage $)anges 6et,een *0 an *2. ?)is ,as most-1 ue to t)e )asing o99 o9

ri$e $ontro-s an remo4a- o9 su6siies an it ,as 9urt)er aggra4ate 61 t)e **B2

roug)ts. ?)e ro in t)e rate o9 $)ange mig)t 6e ue to $ometition o9 t)e 4arie

$onsumer goos on t)e mar+et. ?)e -a, o9 eman an su-1 no, etermine ri$e

-e4e-s instea o9 go4ernment regu-ations.

COMESA MEMBERSTATES

Average month on month inflation rat

Weightused in

2010

Jane!

"e#Jan

Mar"e#

A$rilMar!

Ma%A$r

JunMa%

Jul%Jun

Burundi 1.0 -1.5 3.7 -0.9 -3.1 0.5

Comoros 0.12 0.3 -0.5 0.5 0.5 2.4 5.0

DR Congo 1.88 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.2 1.1 1.6

Djibouti

Egyt 53.02 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 3.4

Eritr!"

Et#ioi" 7.19 0.7 0.6 0.4 -0.3 -1.7 1.2

M Micro Stat

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