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Intelligente netten inNederland
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Congres Agentschap NL
Prof. dr. Wim J. de Ridder18 januari 2011
Waar ligt de horizon?
Drie versnellers
• Zesde technologische revolutie
• Dynamica in systemen
• PV-technologie
1. Exponentiële ontwikkeling
De Wet van Moore:singulariteit in 2020
2: PV technologie
booming met dank aan denanotechnologie
Cell efficiencies
Three Hard Truths (Shell)
• Surging energy demand
• Supply will struggle to keep pace
• Environmental stresses are increasing
Scramble Blueprints
Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006
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Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind Other Renewables
Different sponsors, different scenarios 2030
• Wind
• Biomass• Solar• Increase in electricity
• CO2 emissions• Dependence on
imported oil
Source: Merrill Lynch, Clean Technology, 2008
EIA Google40 GW 380 GW
10 GW 23 GW4 GW 250 GW
25% 0%+ 16% -/- 40%+ 11% -/- 33%
3. Dynamica in systemen
• Computer 1.0: main frame• Computer 2.0: Personal computing• Computer 3.0: Pervasive computing/embedded
systems
Emerging markets: mobility• Mobility 1.0: public transport• Mobility 2.0: private transport (cars)• Mobility 3.0: autonomous vehicles,
integrated transportsystems
Emerging markets: water
• Water 1.0: utilities• Water 2.0: welness, health• Water 3.0: decentralized purification
Decentrale zuivering
Reinier de Graaf Ziekenhuis Delft
Terugverdientijd 3 jaar
Emerging markets: energy
• Energy 1.0: utilities• Energy 2.0: personal energy: solar, wkk• Energy 3.0: smart grids
4. De wereld breekt open
• Rol van de overheid• HighTech valleys• Chinese dominantie
Chinese cleantech producten
• Zonnecellen• Batterijen• Electrische auto’s
Austria Eco World Styria: Worldbest cleantech cluster organization
Andere CleanTech clusters
Smart Cities: Governments will increasingly invest in embeddingintelligence into the infrastructure of new and existing urban cities
The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secureenvironmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water,transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced,integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced withcomputerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms.- U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000
Examples of New Smart Cities:• Masdar, Abu Dhabi,• New Songho City, South Korea,• Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India• King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
•King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
Focusgebieden Energie &Power
Technologische uitdagingen:
•Smart (power) grids;netwerkstabiliteit ((nano-)sensoren en embedded systemen)
•Foto Voltaïsche zonnecellen;kostprijs/kWh, efficiency, conversie, opslag
•Energie neutraal wonen;lokaal winnen, opslaan, converteren, distribueren & verbruik
•Elektrisch vervoer; b.v. snelladen, verlichting & veiligheid
Innovative solutions toclimate and energy challenges
Clean
Tech
Delta
De New Green Dealvoor innovatie en schone technologie
in de regio Rotterdam-Delft
The race to reinvent the world starts andends in China
The size of China's green stimulus programis historically unprecedented at about 38%of the over $200 billion announced, andunderpinning the country's rise as thelargest emerging cleantech market.
5. Conclusie: afkijken mag
www.futuresstudies.nlwww.futuresfit.nl