© Ericsson AB 2006 1 Market Update - Ingeniería Eléctrica · © Ericsson AB 2006 3 Market Update...


La maquina del tiempo


El mundo se hace mas pequeñoAparecen nuevas tecnologías de comunicacióndramáticamente mas rápidasLas economías de escala dominan el mundo de los negociosViejas companías se estancan y muerenNuevos empresarios construyen imperiosLeyes para la defensa de la competencia vs. monopolios de facto

Titulares de un diario, que año ?


El año : …1869


La tecnología cambia.

Las leyes económicasNO.

Lección


Leyes a las que la industria esta sujeta:

Ley de Moore: la capacidad de procesamiento se duplica cada 18 meses (Intel)Capacidad de almacenamiento (ley de Kryder ?): desde 1956 la capacidad de almacenamiento se multiplico por 50 millones ! (de 2000 bits p / pulgada cuadrada a 100 billones de bits p / pulgada cuadrada) la siguiente meta : 1 Terabit por pulgada cuadrada. (Seagate)

Una visión al futuro de las Telecomunicaciones

MVD Telcom 2006

Eduardo Oscar GriffaDirector Regional de Soluciones & MarketingMU Latino América sur; Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, Perú & Uruguay


A milestone quarter for GSM15 years and 2 billion users

GSM a major success with Ericsson leadership 2 billion GSM subscriptions - 1,000 new users per minute*

– 12 years to reach first billion – 30 months for second billion– 80% of second billion in high-growth markets

GSM paving the way for 3G and future technologies– 690 networks across more than 200 countries*

Source: GSM Association

GSM/ WCDMA the winning track – now 100 WCDMA networks


0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

750 000

1 500 000

2 250 000

3 000 000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Mobility changes the worldTraffic accelerates with new services

Global cellular reported subscriptions Traffic in mobile networks

High growth markets

Mature markets Voice traffic

Mobile data traffic

Mobile InternetMobile OfficeTV streaming/ video telephonyMusic and other downloads

Tera

byte

Subs

crip

tions

(mill

ion)


0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

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2011

0

750 000

1 500 000

2 250 000

3 000 000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Mobility changes the worldTraffic accelerates with new services

Global cellular reported subscriptions Traffic in mobile networks

Mobile Voice

2010

Mobile data to pass voice 2010 - fixed data passed voice 2000

Mobile data

High growth markets

Mature marketsTe

raby

te

Subs

crip

tions

(mill

ion)


0

75 000 000

150 000 000

225 000 000

300 000 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Wireline network trafficIPTV/Internet the main traffic drivers

IPTV Assumption:50 Mn IPTV subscribers in 20114 hours/day – 5 Mbps (from 2007)

Tera

byte

Subscriber traffic in fixed access networks

Internet

IPTV

Voice


Time

BUSD

1000

2000

E- mail

GamingMusic

News & Sport

PositioningMobile - TV

Videoconference

Surfing

From Voice services toChoice of services

3G, HSPA,3G LTE

Broadband

Cameras

Migrationto All-IP, IMSO

pera

tor s

ervi

ce re

venu

es

Innov

ation

Existing forecast


Volume/year:150 Million

PC

Mobile Operator

Fixed line Operator

Operator domain

TV


MobilePhones

The new communications landscape “Triple Play” and new services drive the operators

Cable TVOperators



Consumershave manychoices

IMSTSS MSS

Access

IP

The new way of communicating

Voice TextImageVid

eoDrawingMusicGamesFiles

Trends

ConvergenceMobile BroadbandNetworked Media

– Mobile TV– Mobile Music– The Connected Home

Enterprise MarketService MarketMobile Handset


ConvergenceUser ServicesA unified serviceexperience regardlessof access.

DevicesMulti-access deviceswith intelligence toselect accesses.

NetworkMigration towardsan all IP networkbased on IMS.

Reliability & SecurityAlways Best ConnectedConvenience & Ease of Use


Mobile Broadband is changing the industryJust like mobile telephony once did

Add new revenue streams on existing network


Networked mediaOne common market for media and telecom industries

Fixed broadband and voice networks

Mobilebroadband and voice networks Digital content

Telecom Media

Networked media

TVGames

MusicRadio

Print

Personalization

Video

“Everything’s networked. You want to talk to somebody or talk to another machine, you want to seemusic and video games and content and data and services”

Howard Stinger, CEO Sony


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Music download serviceVideo telephony

Multimedia/picture messagingBrowsing the internet

Positioning service (like gps)Photo editing

Share a picture while talkingE-mail

Music videos/movie trailersWalkie talkie anywhere

TV in your mobile phoneGame download service

Share a video clip while talkingPersonal homepageInformation updatesInstant product info

Young Early AdoptersTotal

Source: Consumer Lab Global 10 Survey 2005 (>13.000 respondents in ten countries)

High interest for new media servicesMusic is the most wanted service by young early adopters


USA

Austria

3MobileTV

Sweden

Italy

Source: Public Sources, October 2005

Mobile TV is happening today

France

AMERICASCanada,

Dominican Rep.Mexico

Puerto RicoUSA

EUROPEAustria, France,Germany, Italy,

Latvia, Luxembourg,Norway, Sweden,Switzerland, UK

ASIA-PACIFICAustralia,

Hong Kong,Japan, Malaysia,

New Zealand,Singapore


Ringtones, realtones, ringback tones:16% of global youth spending on music

Traditional music sales decline globally

Mobile music on the growth track

Source: mobileYouth 2005 by Wireless World Forum

2001 2003 2005

BUSD

0

15

20

Mobile

Non-Mobile


Fixed entertainment

Mobile entertainment

Wide area mobiles

Production

Automation

Work

Future step?

The Connected Homeset the scene

DLNA


Common challenges for enterprises– Cost control– Improved productivity– Enhanced customer satisfaction– Security

Trends in the market– Convergence in all aspects– Increased role of mobility– Mobile application integration– Outsourcing and hosting– Demands driven by individuals

The enterprise market

Mobilizing the enterprise


Core vs.non-core

Competence need

Operators’business ischanging

Financial pressures

Operationalinefficiencies

Business & technology complexity

Telecom services growth

Growth, Efficiency and Network evolution

Sound business opportunities for services vendors

Market situation– Increased competition– Importance of differentiation– Customer focus


”Always with you”

Personal Communications & Content center: Voice, SMS, MMS, e-mail, etc

Communication, Entertainment,Transaction & Navigation center

The mobile handsetEmbracing and embedding feature after feature

Fixed phonePager

Fax

Portable radio

MP3 player/Walkman

Mobile TV

Digital camera

Video camera

Memory stick

Game console

PDA

Credit cards

GPS

Color Screens


Current user trends

Individualization of communication

Communities and global tribalism

Connectivity for granted

Convenience and trust


Current user trend I

Use of communication and media much more personalFragmentation - from few to many servicesThe mobile phone has become a part of the individual’s “personality kit” and a way to make a statementDemand for more customization & tailored offerings

Individualization of communication


Current user trend II

People look for communityConsumers self-organize into new communitiesWe don’t know our neighbor but have friends in other time zonesThanks to technology, the time-space limitations have diminishedA move from geographically-defined communities to communities of interest

Communities and global tribalism


Current user trend III

When technology becomes ”good enough”, it looses its glamour and the user experience dominatesPeople want ”no hassle”Convenience, trust and ease of use become the dominant motivating factors among usersNeed to be customized to individual preferences with many coices available, high quality at the right price

Convenience and trust


Current user trend IV

Technology & connection taken for grantedAlways reachableAlone means ’not connected’Social connectivity totally personalizedAbility to communicate is the identity maker

Connectivity for granted

“I’m always connected – therefore I am”


Drivers for fixed broadband

Curiosity“Meet new people”“Check out exciting sites”

Escape from daily life“Think about something completely different”

Company“Computer always on”“A ‘living’ thing”

Enjoyment“For fun”“Entertainment”

Keep updated“Trends/fashion – cool sites”“Not be left behind”“First with the latest, not the last one to know”

Keeping in contact“To keep contacts alive”“Belong and not be excluded””Share feelings””I exist”


The mobile phone has become“part of your body”

Companion“Part of my body”“A friend”“My right hand”

Always with youTurned on 24/7Like your wallet or keys

Identification“The phone number is me”“Reflects who I am”PersonalizationDecoration, e.g. gadgets and coloring

Something to doA tool for killing timeEscape from feeling alone

A security deviceEmergencySafety

A multi tool“A Swiss army knife”Useful as e.g. alarm, calendar and bus card

A linkAccess to othersBe availableNot miss anything


Barriers for uptake to address

CostsToo expensive (service & terminal)

No needTried, but was not as expectedNot interesting in my life/not for meDoes not make sense

Limited contentNot enough attractive information/contentLimited version compared to the fixed Internet

Handset restrictionsSmall display & key padLimited memoryMulti tasks not possibleLow battery capacity

Service performancePerceived long waiting timeStress factor due to costsPoor coverage

Usability and usefulnessComplicated handling, e.g. clicking and scrollingAnnoying when cannot find what you are looking for

Moderator: If you try a feature and it doesn't work, what happens?Respondent: “You don't use it.”Moderator: Do you give it a second chance?Respondent: “No. First time or no good.”

Lack of critical mass No one to communicate with Don't know the capabilities of my friends’phones


But strong drivers in placeThere are benefits that make sense to the users:

ConvenienceMobilityAnytime & anywhereInstant

CuriosityInterest in trying new thingsUsing the latest technology

Time to killBoredNothing else to doLess boring than doing nothing

Best option at the momentNo access to the fixed InternetOn the move

MarketingCampaigns, discounts etc.

”I browse the mobile Internet for example when I am bored. It can be when I wait for someone, when I go to the toilet or when I have a smoke. You know, sometimes it is not that exciting to look at a faraway mountain while smoking.”

Male Professional, 30 years

Because friends/others use itNot being left behindNot first, but definitely not the last


Beyond voice – fragmented market

TV

Music

Finance

PC Games

Media

Communication

NETWORK EVOLUTION


DVB-S/T/C

Access evolution

10 kbit/s

100 kbit/s

1 Mbit/s

10 Mbit/s

100 Mbit/s

1 Gbit/s

End-userbit rate

BroadcastMobileFixed

GSM

WCDMA

LTE

HSDPAADSL

ADSL2+

Fiber

DVB-H

VDSL 2

WiMaxDVB-H

MBMS


Core evolution towards all-IP

Service Control

Fixed Access

Applications & ContentCommon support functions

IP Core

AccessLayer

ServiceLayer

Access Edge

Control &ConnectivityLayer

IMS

Soft-switch

Soft-switch

Metro Transport

MGW GGSN

SGSNBRAS

CableAccess

Fixed Wireless

Mobile Access


Service delivery evolution

Yesterday

Not enough consumer servicesComplex and slow service launchNon-standardized interfacesVertical stovepipes

Richer communication Service convergence3GPP IMS – standardized common enabler layerMass application developmentIntelligence into clientsTelecom SOA

TomorrowToday

Open environment for developersCost-efficiency Common support functionsSeveral standards

Content & ApplicationsCommon support functionService enablers

Untrusted domainWalled garden


IP, SIP e IMS

Control IMS = Las Reglas

Señalización SIP = El Mapa

Conectividad IP = Los Caminos


Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedEstado Actual


Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedPrimer Paso


Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedPrimer Paso: Softswitch e IMS


Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedSegundo Paso: Red Backbone Multiservicio común


Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedEstadío Final: Red Multiservicio Convergente


IAD

AA--SBG SBG H.248

Fixed Broadband Fixed Broadband IMS accessIMS access

Rq

802.1xRANRAN

E.g. BRAS

DSL

DSL

DSL

DSL

DSL

DSL

BroadbandBroadband accessaccess

SGCSGCSGCSGC

(P(P--CSCFCSCFSPDF)SPDF)

MPMPMPMP(A(A--BGF)BGF)

RNCRNC

BSCBSC

IuIu--psps/IP/IPGn

SGSNSGSN

Mobile access Mobile access

PP--CSCFCSCFPDFPDFGq

Gx

Mobile IMS accessMobile IMS access

SIP

Gb/ IP

WSN

AA--RACFRACF

MSAN

DSL

DSL

POTS accessPOTS access

TDM

PBX

TDM MGW MGW

TPFGGSN

H.248 (AGW)

GSMRAN

WCDMA RAN

CCS CCS H.248

ISUP

legacy interworkinglegacy interworking(with IN(with IN triggeringtriggering))

MGW MGW

SIP/H.323SIP/H.323VoIPVoIP

NN--SBG SBG

ISP/GRXISP/GRX network interworkingnetwork interworking

SGCSGC(I(I--BCF)BCF)

MPMP(I(I--BGF)BGF)

H.248

IMSIMScorecore

Mr (SIP)

H.248

RTPIPIP

HSSHSS

Cx (Diameter)

RTP

CSCFCSCF(P)(P) ((I ) I ) (S)(S)

BGCFBGCF

Mp

MRFCMRFC

BSC

MGW RNC

BSCBSC

TeSTESTES(MGCF)(MGCF)

RTP

RTP

SIPSIP ApplicationApplication ServersServers Fixed Fixed Legacy Legacy

ININ

ININ--SCPSCP

EITEITWe We

ShareShare SDSSDS EASEASMessagingMessaging

MM--MGW/MGW/SGW SGW

MSCMSC--SS

H.248

MRFPMRFPMediaMediaServersServers

BICC-CS2

RTP

MP

CCS CCS CCS CCS

TeSTESTES

IMS 2005 – 2007 (details)

IP CentrexIP Centrex

VoIPVoIP

MobileMobileLegacy Legacy

ININ

INSINS--NRGNRG

PSTN/PLMNPSTN/PLMN

PSTN/PLMNPSTN/PLMN

AGCFAGCF(P(P--CSCF)CSCF)

Presence and Group ManagementPresence and Group Management

legacy interworking legacy interworking (with IN(with IN triggeringtriggering))

OSA GWOSA GW

ConferencingConferencing

SLFSLF

MM--MGW/MGW/SGW SGW

MSCMSC--SS(MGCF)(MGCF)

H.248


La Industria de las Comunicaciones

Alcances y Economias de escala

El Negocio

Facilitadores

Convergencia e integraciónConsolidacionesMarcas GlobalesExcelencia Operacional

Mercados EmergentesTriple PlayDiferenciación y nuevas cadenas de valorRegulación

Arquitectura de capas, SS, IMS, IPBanda Ancha, cableada e inalámbricaPerformance E2EServicios y dispositivos multimedia

© Ericsson AB 2006 1 Market Update - Ingeniería Eléctrica · © Ericsson AB 2006 3 Market Update...

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Transcript of © Ericsson AB 2006 1 Market Update - Ingeniería Eléctrica · © Ericsson AB 2006 3 Market Update...