Editor: Frankie Wong Tel: (852) 2277 6765 Email...
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denniswuTypewriterEditor:Frankie WongTel: (852) 2277 6765Email: [email protected]
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THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
Closing Price(Bt) 38.50Target Price(Bt) 35.00 (‐3.38%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S Shares (mn) : 847 Market Cap. (Btmn) :Market Cap. (USDmn) :52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) : 41/29.53M Average Daily T/O (mn) : 1.04Par Value (Bt) : 10.00
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
1. CREDIT SUISSE AG, HONG KONG BRANCH 8.52. CHASE NOMINEES LIMITED 7.33. Thai NVDR Co.LTD. 5.9
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
1MTH 3MTH 1YRABS 10% 14% 3%REL TO SET INDEX 37% 43% 8%
PRICE VS SET INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
KEY FINANCIALS
FYE Dec FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17ERevenue(Btmn) 12,490 14,676 15,581 17,093Net Profit(Btmn) 2,636 3,317 3,589 4,350EPS (Bt) 3.13 3.92 4.28 5.19P/E (X) 12.3 9.8 9.0 7.4BVPS (Bt) 42.77 44.79 47.27 50.32P/B (X) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8DPS (Bt) 1.60 2.00 2.20 2.40Dividend Yield (%) 4.2 5.2 5.7 6.2ROE (%) 7.39 8.92 9.20 10.56Debt/Equity (X) 6.64 6.18 6.35 6.30
Source: Company, PSR Est.**Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price
VALUATION METHOD
P/B'16 (0.8x)
Adisorn MungparnchonSecurities Investment Analyst # 18577Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 497
905
11 September 2015
Sell (Maintain)
26 January 2016
32,600
020406080100
Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16
KKP TB EQUITY SETI (rebased)
Kiatnakin Bank Aggressive target set in 2016; quite challenging to achieve THAILAND | SET | BANK | COMPANY VISIT BLOOMBERG KKP TB l REUTERS KKP.BK Loan growth target set as high as 15%‐19% for 2016 KKP set its 2016 loan growth target at 15%‐19%. Its new financial products—Lombard loan and SME loan (to be launched anytime soon)—and large corporate loan (recently launched) will be a key growth driver, instead of HP loan. KKP’s management also admitted its loan growth target is very challenging. We forecast KKP’s loan growth rate at 9% this year. We believe the bank’s new financial product would see a significant growth in favor of low base effect but its core HP loan is likely to remain lackluster as debt repayment is likely to outweigh new loan accounts. New bank and money products lining up KKP will launch many new financial products tied to banking and capital market in 2016. For SME loan, the bank has a plan to form direct sales team to take care of bank and money products such as insurance, mutual fund investment, and wealth management via hedge funds in various markets. NPL sees improvement on lower repossessed cars but loan‐loss provision will likely remain high NPL is likely to see improvement after FY15 NPL declined to 5.8% vs 6.6% at end‐3QFY15 and price for used cars has picked up following an effective of new car excise tax structure. We expect the bank’s losses from repossessed cars to decline further in 2016 after the bank recorded Bt1.2bn loss a year earlier. However, loan‐loss provision is expected to remain high, a similar level to the prior year, as KKP aims to increase its loan‐loss provision to NPL from 92% currently to be on par with the industry’s average at 121%. FY16 net profit projection unchanged at Bt3.6bn, up 8.2% y‐y We keep our FY16 net profit projection unchanged at Bt3.6bn, representing a growth of 8.2% y‐y, as we are optimistic about loan growth, which is forecast to recover from a 4% contraction in 2015, and fee‐based income that would grow along with the launches new financial products. We expect KKP to pay FY16 dividend of Bt2.20 vs our estimated Bt2 for 2015. ‘SELL’ rating maintained with target price of Bt35 We leave our target price unchanged at Bt35, though we expect recovery in loan and earnings in 2016, as KKP has a track record of paying the outstanding dividend in the industry. However, the overvalued share price prompts us to rate KKP a ‘SELL’ stance.
Ref. No.: CO2016_0070
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Corporate Governance ‐2015
ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTCEASTW EGCO GRAMMY HANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINT MONO NKI PHOL PPSPS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMART SAMTELSAT SC SCB SCC SE‐ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCOTKT TMB TOP VGI WACOAL
AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIPASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY BBL BDMS BECL BKI BLABMCL BOL BROOK BWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNTCOL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTA DEMCO ECF EE ERWGBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICC ICHIINET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBKMC MEGA MFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGCOISHI OTO PAP PDI PE PG PJW PM PPP PRPRANDA PREB PT PTG Q‐CON QH RS S & J SABINA SAMCOSCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMTSNP SPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWCSYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANITHIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TK TKS TMI TMILLTMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWFPTWS UAC UT UV VNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO
2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAHAMARIN AP APCO AQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTYBEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHI BKD BTNC CBG CGDCHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSC CSPCSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIREFOCUS FORTH FPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLANDGLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECH IEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCPITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGI KKC KTISKWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJORMAKRO MATCH MATI MBKET M‐CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERNMOONG MPG MSC MTI MTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYTOCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDG PF PICO PLPLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCNSCP SEAOIL SIRI SKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCGSPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPI SUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEXTAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TIC TIWTLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMIUP UPF UPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WINXO
Score Range
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Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector IndexAgro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOODConsumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOMEPersonal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANKFinance & Securities FINInsurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTOIndustrial Materials & Machinery IMMPackaging PKGPaper & Printing Materials PAPERPetrochemicals & Chemicals PETROSteel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMATConstruction Services CONS Property Development PROPProperty Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Util ities ENERGMining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMMMedia & Publishing MEDIAHealth Care Services HELTHTourism & Leisure TOURISMProfessional Services PROFTransportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRONInformation & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation> 15% BUY> 5% ‐ 15% ACCUMULATE / TRADING BUY> 0% ‐ 5% NEUTRAL0
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