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THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
Central Pattana
3QFY15 net profit, FY16 outlook bright on continued expansion
THAILAND | SET | CPN | COMPANY RESULTS BLOOMBERG CPN TB l REUTERS CPN.BK
3QFY15 net profit down 6.12% y‐y, 9.46% q‐q to Bt1,816.45mn, in line with our forecast Total revenue grew by 5.2% y‐y and 3.76% q‐q to Bt6,372.17mn, driven by (1) stronger revenue in existing stores, particularly in CentralPlaza Khonkaen and CentralPlaza Lardprao; (2) revenue from newly operating stores: a full‐quarter contribution from CentralPlaza Rayong, CentralFestival Phuket and an one month from CentralPlaza WestGate; and (3) a slight improvement in hotel revenue. Operating expense climbed due to higher depreciation and amortization charges from an opening of CentralPlaza WestGate, higher management expense from the operation of CentralPlaza Westgate, higher HR expense for its property real estate projects, and higher interest expense from its long‐term loan and debentures. The increase in depreciation and amortization expenses pushed gross margin down to 49.11% vs a 50.11% in 3QFY14. As a result, net profit fell by 6.12% y‐y and 9.46% q‐q to Bt1,816.45mn. FY15 earnings still on the rise despite outlook downgrade We expect 4QFY15 earnings to be a banner quarter of the year as (1) department stores and hotels will likely benefit from the peak‐demand during a holiday shopping season, (2) CPN will record a full‐quarter revenue contribution from CentralPlaza WestGate, (3) its Aqua Park at CentralPlaza Bangna will open this quarter and CentralPlaza EastVille will open in November, and (4) CentralPlaza PinKlao will fully reopened this period. With this assumption, we expect net profit to grow by 31.1% y‐y and 32.39% q‐q to Bt2,405mn. We cut slightly our FY15 net profit projection from Bt8,842mn to Bt8,374.5mn, which represents a growth of 14.61%, in views of rental rate hike headwind due to economic sluggishness, potential lower‐than‐expected revenue contribution due to a delayed opening of CentralPlaza EastVille, and a higher‐than‐expected HR and administrative expenses, and financial cost. FY16 net profit likely to grow 13.63% on continued business expansion CPN has a plan to add more stores locally and overseas in 2016‐2017, such as CentralPlaza Nakhon Si Thammarat, CentralPlaza Nakhonratchasima, CentralFestival Phuket 2, and CentralPlaza i‐City in Malaysia. CentralPlaza Bangna will be partially closed for renovation to increase its net leasable area, which is scheduled to reopen in 2QFY16. For its residential real estate projects, CPN plans to open three condo projects, valued Bt1,000mn each, near its department stores in Rayong, Khonkaen and Chiangmai provinces, which will begin presales in late 2015. If those projects receive strong response, the company will begin constructions in early 2016, which will be upside to our project as we have yet priced in. Based on the assumptions, we project net profit to grow by 13.63% y‐y to Bt9,515.57mn. ‘BUY’ rating with FY16 target price of Bt61.25/share We have a ‘BUY’ call on CPN with a FY16 target price of Bt61.25/share as we foresee bright prospects in rental and services revenue from its department stores as rental rate is expected to increase annually by 3%‐5% depending on economic conditions, and CPN has planted a long‐term plan to create sustainable growth with a continued increase of department stores, and a venture into residential property market.
Ref. No.: CO2015_0856
Closing Price(Bt) 47.00
Target Price(Bt) 61.25 (+30.32%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S Shares (mn) : 4,488
Market Cap. (Btmn) :
Market Cap. (USDmn) :
52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) : 49.25/36.5
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) : 6.04
Par Value (Bt) : 0.50
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
1. CENTRAL HOLDING LTD 26.2
2. HSBC (SINGAPORE) NOMINEES PTE LTD 5.8
3. THAI NDVR 4.9
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
1MTH 3MTH 1YR
ABS 1% 4% 0%
REL TO SET INDEX 3% 6% 13%
PRICE VS SET INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
KEY FINANCIALS
FYE Dec FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Sales(Btmn) 23,891 25,978 28,973 31,796
Net Profit(Btmn) 7,307 8,375 9,516 11,168
EPS (Bt) 1.63 1.87 2.12 2.49
P/E (X) 28.9 25.2 22.2 18.9
BVPS (Bt) 9.30 10.54 12.01 13.75
P/B (X) 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.4
DPS (Bt) 0.65 0.65 0.74 0.00
Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.0
ROE (%) 17.50 18.81 18.81 19.32
Debt/Equity (X) 1.13 1.25 1.17 0.99
Source: Company, PSR Est.
**Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price
VALUATION METHOD
DCF (WACC: 7%; terminal g: 4%)
Suthanuch Chaisumrej
Securities Investment Analyst # 61708
Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 528
Kunanon Juntarapartsavorn
Analyst Assistant
210,936
5,867
08 May 2015
Buy (Maintain)
18 November 2015
0
20
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60
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100
Nov‐12 Nov‐13 Nov‐14 Nov‐15
CPN TB EQUITY SETI (rebased)
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 2 | P a g e
Central Pattana COMPANY RESULTS
Income Statement
Btmn 3Q15 2Q15 3Q14 q‐q+/‐ y‐y+/‐ 9M15 9M14 y‐y+/‐
Sa l e s and s e rvi ce s 6,372 6,141 6,057 4% 5% 18,734 17,689 6%
Cos ts of s a le s 3,243 3,022 3,022 7% 7% 9,129 8,623 6%
Gross profit 3,129 3,120 3,035 0% 3% 9,605 9,067 6%
Se l l i ng expens es 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0 0 n.m.
Admini s tra ti ve expens es 961 858 801 12% 20% 2,682 2,437 10%
Operating profit 2,168 2,262 2,235 ‐4% ‐3% 6,924 6,630 4%
Other i ncome 5 6 15 ‐12% ‐62% 19 45 ‐57%
Ga in/los s from a ffi l i a te s 178 189 217 ‐6% ‐18% 577 601 ‐4%
Other expense 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0 0 n.m.
EBIT 2,352 2,457 2,466 ‐4% ‐5% 7,520 7,276 3%
Inte res t expens e 141 103 120 37% 17% 340 585 ‐42%
EBT 2,211 2,354 2,346 ‐6% ‐6% 7,180 6,691 7%
Ta xa tion 369 325 380 14% ‐3% 1,106 1,116 ‐1%
EAT 1,842 2,030 1,966 ‐9% ‐6% 6,074 5,574 9%
Minori ty 26 23 31 10% ‐17% 104 88 18%
Net profit before extra 1,816 2,006 1,935 ‐9% ‐6% 5,970 5,486 9%
Extraordina ry i tems 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0 0 n.m.
Net profit 1,816 2,006 1,935 ‐9% ‐6% 5,970 5,486 9%
EPS (Bt) 0.40 0.45 0.43 ‐9% ‐6% 1.33 1.22 9%
Key Financial Ratio
% 3Q15 2Q15 3Q14 q‐q+/‐ y‐y+/‐ 9M15 9M14 y‐y+/‐
Cos t of s a l e s /s a l e s 50.89% 49.21% 49.89% 3% 2% 48.73% 48.75% 0%
SG&A exp/s a l e s 15.08% 13.96% 13.22% 8% 14% 14.31% 13.78% 4%
Gros s margin 49.11% 50.79% 50.11% ‐3% ‐2% 51.27% 51.25% 0%
Opera ti ng profi t margin 34.02% 36.83% 36.89% ‐8% ‐8% 36.96% 37.48% ‐1%
Net profi t margin 28.51% 32.67% 31.94% ‐13% ‐11% 31.87% 31.02% 3%
Balance Sheet
Btmn 3Q15 2Q15 3Q14 q‐q+/‐ y‐y+/‐ 9M15 9M14 y‐y+/‐
As se ts 99,964 97,858 85,961 2% 16% 99,964 85,961 16%
Li a bi l i ti e s 55,061 54,795 46,067 0% 20% 55,061 46,067 20%
Pa id ‐up (mn s hrs ) ‐ Pa r Bt0.5 4,488 4,488 4,488 0% 0% 4,488 4,488 0%
Equi ti e s 44,903 43,062 39,894 4% 13% 44,903 39,894 13%
BVPS (Bt) 10.01 9.59 8.89 4% 13% 10.01 8.89 13%
Debt/equi ty (x) 1.2 1.3 1.2 ‐4% 6% 1.2 1.2 6%
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 3 | P a g e
Corporate Governance ‐2014
BAFS BCP BTS CPN EGCO GRAMMY HANA INTUCH IRPC TOP
KBANK KKP KTB MINT PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC SAMART IVL
SAT SC SCB SE‐ED SIM SPALI TISCO TMB THCOM SAMTEL
AAV ACAP ADVANC ANAN AOT ASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY
BBL BECL BIGC BKI BLA BMCL BROOK CENTEL CFRESH CIMBT
CK CNT CPF CSL DELTA DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EE
ERW GBX GC GFPT GUNKUL HEMRAJ HMPRO ICC KCE KSL
LANNA LH LHBANK LOXLEY LPN MACO MC MCOT NBC NCH
NINE NKI NMG NSI OCC OFM PAP PE PG PHOL
PJW PM PPS PR PRANDA PS PT QH RATCH ROBINS
RS S & J SAMCO SCC SINGER SIS SITHAI SNC SNP SPI
SSF SSI SSSC STA SVI TCAP TF THAI THANI TSTE
TIP TIPCO TK TKT TNITY TNL TOG TRC TRUE
TSTH TTA TTW TVO UAC VGI VNT WACOAL
2S AF AH AHC AIT AJ AKP AKR AMANAH AMARIN
AMATA AP APCO APCS AQUA ARIP AS ASIA AYUD BEAUTY
BEC BFIT BH BJC BJCHI BOL BTNC BWG CCET CGD
CGS CHOW CI CKP CM CMR CSC CSP CSS DCC
DEMCO DNA EA ESSO FE FORTH FPI GENCO GL GLOBAL
GLOW GOLD HOTPOT HTC HTECH HYDRO IFS IHL INET IRC
IRCP ITD KBS KGI KKC KTC L&E LRH LST MAJOR
MAKRO MATCH MBK MBKET MEGA MFC MFEC MJD MODERN MONO
MOONG MPG MTI NC NTV NUSA NWR NYT OGC OISHI
PACE PATO PB PDI PICO PPM PPP PREB PRG PRIN
PTG QLT QTC RCL SABINA SALEE SCBLIF SCCC SCG SEAFCO
SEAOIL SFP SIAM SIRI SKR SMG SMK SMPC SMT SOLAR
SPC SPCG SPPT SST STANLY STEC STPI SUC SWC SYMC
SYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TEAM TFD TFI THANA THIP THREL
TIC TICON TIW TKS TLUXE TMI TMT TNDT TPC TPCORP
TRT TRU TSC TTCL TUF TVD TWFP UMI UP UPF
UPOIC UT UV UWC VIH WAVE WHA WIN WINNER YUASA
ZMICO
Score Range
< 50%
50‐59%
60‐60%
70‐79%
80‐89%
90‐100%
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company
l isted on the Stock Exchange of Thai land and the Market for Alternative disclosure to the
public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from
the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai
Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phil l ip
Securities (Thai land) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of
such survey result.
No logo given
Number of Logo
Results Presentation
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 4 | P a g e
Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector Index
Agro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOOD
Consumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOME
Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANK
Finance & Securities FIN
Insurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTO
Industrial Materials & Machinery IMM
Packaging PKG
Paper & Printing Materials PAPER
Petrochemicals & Chemicals PETRO
Steel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMAT
Construction Services CONS
Property Development PROP
Property Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Utilities ENERG
Mining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMM
Media & Publishing MEDIA
Health Care Services HELTH
Tourism & Leisure TOURISM
Professional Services PROF
Transportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRON
Information & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation
> +10% Buy
0% to + 10% Neutral
< 0% Sell
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a
stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative
undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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