101029 TNC 25a · 2018. 2. 26. · 101029_TNC 25a W. Hoffmann 2 Gliederung 1. PV Markt: Historie...

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Sonnigen Glückwunsch zu 25 Jahren TNC!

« Die PV Roadmap der EPIA »

Winfried Hoffmann VP EPIA

VP&CTO Applied Materials Solar

Zürich, den 25. Oktober 2010

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2 101029_TNC 25a W. Hoffmann

Gliederung

1.  PV Markt: Historie und zukünftige Entwicklung « SET for 2020 » Studie

2.  Volkswirtschaftlicher Nutzen von Marktunterstützungsprogrammen (z.B. Einspeisegesetz EEG)

3.  PV im Portfolio aller Erneuerbaren Energien zur globalen 100% Endenergieversorgung (2. Jhd-Hälfte)

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FULL MEMBERS (154)

3S Swiss Solar Systems AG (CH), , Acciona Solar S.A.(ES), Adept Technology (DE), AEG Power Solutions (FR), AES Solar Energy BV (NL), AGC Flat Glass Europe (BE), Aleo Solar AG (DE), Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG (DE), Arkema (FR), Astra (KY), Atersa S.L.(ES), August Krempel Soehne GmbH + Co.KG (DE), Bangkok Solar Co., Ltd. (TAI), Baoding Tianwei Yingli New Energy Resources Co., Ltd. (CN), BG Solar Panels Ltd (BG), Bisol d.o.o.(SI), Blue Chip energy GmbH (AT), BP Solar (ES), CEDES S.A (ES), Centrotherm Photovoltaics AG (DE); (CN)Sunergy (Nanjing) PV-Tech Co. Ltd (CN); City Solar AG (DE); CNPV (CN); Conergy AG (DE); CSI - Canadian Solar Inc. (DE); Danfoss (DK); DC Chemical Co., Ltd. (KR); Dow Corning Europe SA (BE); DuPont Photovoltaïc Solutions (CH); DYESOL (UK) Limited (UK); Ecostream International BV (NL); ECOTÈCNIA ENERGÍAS RENOVABLES, S.L. (ES); Edisun Power Europe AG (CH); Edwards LTD (UK); Elettronica Santerno SpA (IT); Elkem Solar (NO); eMAT Technology/Moses Lake Industries Inc (USA); Enel.si srl (IT); Energy Solutions S.A. (BG); EnerSys Ltd. (CH); Enfinity (BE); Engcotec Engco Advanced Technology GmbH (DE); EniPower S.p.A. (IT); EPV (USA); ErSol Solar Energy AG (DE); ESI - EnviroService International GmbH (DE); Etrion SA (CH); Evergreen Solar GmbH (DE), Exel Mak Metal S.A. (GR), Financenergy (ES), First Solar GmbH (DE), Fronius International GmbH (AT), GE Solar (DE), Goldbeck Solar GmbH (DE), GP Solar GmbH (DE), Guardian Industries Corp. Science&Technology (USA), Günter Spelsberg GmbH + Co. KG (DE), Helianthos B.V. (NL), Heliosphera (GR), Heraeus Holding Gmbh (DE), ib vogt GmbH (DE), IBC Solar AG (DE), INTRAKAT S.A. (GR), Isofoton (ES), Isovolta AG (AT),IT Power Ltd (UK), Juwi Solar GMBH (DE), Kaco Gerätetechnik GmbH (DE), Komax Holding AG (CH), Konarka Technologies Inc (USA), Kyocera Fineceramics GmbH (DE), Leybold Optics Dresden GmbH (DE), Luvata Pori Oy (FI), M+W Zander FE GmbH (DE), Martifer Solar, S.A. (PT), Masdar (DE), Meyer Burger AG (CH), Mitsubishi Electric Europe B.V. (DE), Mitsui Chemicals Europe GmbH (DE), Mondragon Assembly, S. Coop (ES), Multi-Contact AG (CH), NAPS Systems OY (FI), Norsk Hydro ASA (NO), NPC Europe GmbH (DE), Oerlikon Solar Ltd, Trubbach (CH), Phoenix Solar AG (DE), Photovoltech (BE),Photowatt Technologies (FR), Pillar JSC (UA), Piritium S.A. (GR), Podolsky Chemical & Metallurgical Plant (RU), PV Crystalox Solar PLC (UK), Q-Cells SE (DE), Racell Solar (DK), RENA Sondermachinen (DE), Renergies Italia SpA (IT), Renewable Energy Corporation (NO), Riello Ups (IT), Saft (FR), Saint Gobain, Glass (FR), Samsung Deutschland GmbH (DE), Sanyo Component Europe GmbH (DE), Scheuten Solar Technology (NL), Schott Solar GmbH (DE), Schunk Group (DE), SGL Carbon GmbH (DE), Sharp Solar Systems Group (DE), Siemens AG, Automation & Drives Systems Engineering (DE), Silcio S.A. (GR), Siliken (ES), Singulus Technologies AG (DE), SMA Solar Technology AG (DE), Solaire Direct (FR), Solar Cells Hellas S.A. (GR), Solar Century Ltd. (UK), Solar Electric (FR), Solar Energy (RU), Solar Plus (PT), Solar Technologies FZE (UAE), Solar Ventures S.p.A. (IT), Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente S.A. (ES), Solaria (DE) GmBH (DE), SolarWorld AG (DE), SolFocus, Inc. (USA), Solland Solar Energy B.V. (NL), Solon SE (DE), Solsonica SpA (IT), Solutia Europe SPRL (BE), Solvay Solexis (BE), Solyndra Inc. (DE), Sovelo A.G. (former EverQ GmbH) (DE), Sputnik Engineering AG (CH), Stangl Semiconductor Equipment AG (DE), Sulfurcell Solartechnik Gmbh (DE), Suniva INC (USA), SunPower Corporation (USA), Suntech Power Co., Ltd. (CN), Sunways AG (DE), systaic Deutschland GmbH (DE), Tenesol (FR), , The Linde Group (UK), Topsil (DK), Total (FR), Trina Solar Ltd. (CN), Umicore S.A. (BE), United Solar Ovonic Europe GmbH (DE), Upsolar Co. Ltd. (CN), Vesuvius (FR), Von Ardenne GmbH (DE), Wacker Chemie GmbH (DE), Wagner & Co Solartechnik Gmbh (DE), WIP (DE), Würth Solar GmbH & Co. KG (DE)

Associate Members (37)

ADEME (FR),APESF (PT), APISOLAR (PT) Apollon Solar (FR), APREN (PT),ASIF (ES), Assosolare (IT), BSW (DE), CRES (GR),Dexia Credi Local (BE), ECN (NL), EDF (FR),Edora (BE), Energie Facteur 4 (BE), Enerplan (FR), Fraunhofer Institute (DE), Gaz de France (FR), GIFI (IT),Helapco (GR), Holland Solar (NL), IMEC (BE), INES RDI (FR), PV Cycle (BE), SEMI (US), SER (FR),TNC (CH),SNEIA (CN), SHV Gas (NL),Solar Academy (NL), Solar Promotion GmbH (DE),Strücher AG (CH), Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe (UK), Svensk Solenergi(SE), Swissolar (CH), TNC (CH), Trama tecno Ambiental (ES),UnderwritersLaboratories International Germany GmbH (DE

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Customer Needs

on-grid" off-grid" consumer" high efficiency"

!/kWh" !/hr light" W/m"!" g/W"

Source: Fraunhofer ISE"!/m" / aesthetics" !/W" flexibility" W/mm""

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Historical Market Development by Regions

ref: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Navigant Consulting and Commerzbank

Average growth 45%/yr

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Cumulative installed capacity

16.943

+ 46%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

In 2009, cumulative installed capacity grew to 23 GWp, of which 17 GWp (75%) in Europe and 10 GW in Germany

+ 46%

2010e +14 GW +60 %

+64%

+37%

+30%

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World-Wide Forecast up to 2014 (policy driven)

78% 45%

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SET For 2020 – PV penetration in EU

Baseline Scenario: 4% 130 GW / 154 TWh

Paradigm Shift Scenario: 12% 390 GW / 462 TWh

Share of e-Demand by 2020

Indicative

2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2008 2014

2020

GW

Accelerated Scenario: 6% 200 GW / 230 TWh

Cumulative Volume (GW)

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Europe: On track towards SET For 2020 « Accelerated Scenario »

34 % pa paradigm

25 % pa base

accelerated

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The daily and seasonal variations of PV generation are a challenge for PV penetration and require flexibility in the generation mix

Daily Demand on Average Summer Week-end Day

Daily Demand on Average Winter Week Day

Daily Demand on Average on Summer Week Day

GW

Daily minimum

Daily minimum

GW

Daily minimum

GW

Daily minimum

Daily energy demand covered

by PV

7%


by PV

27%


by PV

38%

Up to 100% of power

demand

100%

23%

75%

Max % of daily power demand

(Italy, assumption: installed 70 GWp covering 25% of total yearly electricity demand)1)

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Correlation – PV Feed-In vs. Network Load

Integration of up to 30GW without Any Issue!

Day of the week

Load

and

Ele

ctric

ity F

eed-

In [G

W]

Week with Maximum PV Harvesting (Germany)

80GW

Paradigm shift Germany

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Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price

Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates (1999)

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Range of Electricity Prices in California

ref: Japan = KEPCO office data ; California = Alison Hyde of BSW

Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005

Seasonal Electricity Prices

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Italy

Spain

Germany

Romania

Bulgaria

EU average

0.2%

1.6%

0.0%

0.3%

1.0%

3.1%

CAGR 2007-2020 E CAGR 2000-2007

12.0% 3.1%

2.2% 4.0%

Evolution of residential grid electricity prices1) (!/kWh)

~2.0% 2.0%

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3,300

2,800

2,500 2,300

2,125 1,970

1,820 1,700 1,590 1,500 1,411 1,334

System pricing capability range -14%

Pricing capability range for larger systems

(2008 !/kWp)

-7% 2,702

-8%

-5% -6% -6%

-10% 3,500

2009

-7% 2,993

2010 2011

2,497

2012

2,312

2013

2,142

2014

1,987

2015

1,857

2016

1,744

2017

1,554 1,644

2018 2019

1,471

2020

-6% -7%

-7%

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! /kWh

Evolution of PV-levelised cost of energy – industrial system (!/kWh)

Operating hours kWh/kWp

2009

2012

2016

2020

eg Ger

eg Italy

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Price Experience Curve Driven by Technology

! Wafer thickness #0,7mm # 0,15mm#

! Kerf loss #0,5mm # 0,10mm#

! Efficiency #8% # 22%#

! Automation#Industrial manufacturing#

! Economy of scale #0,1MW # 200MW#

Thin Film

Photovoltaic

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EPIA Study “Set for 2020” – World

163

87

CAGR 25%

CAGR 34%

For Reference: 2000 – 2009 CAGR 45%

Paradigm shift scenario: 717 GW cumulated worldwide, thereof 390 GW in Europe

Baseline scenario: 396 GW cumulated worldwide; thereof 130 GW in Europe

Source: EPIA, Set for 2020, 2009

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Case 1 – TF 20%

Case 1 – cSi 20%

PV Future

PEC Scenario Case A:Baseline TF share 15% const TF PEF 20%

Case B:Paradigm Shift TF share 15% # 35% TF PEF 25%

Case B – TF 25%

Case A – cSi 20% c-Si Technology"

"price expectation in 2020 "ca. 60 – 80 $ct/W"

!  Thin Film Technology""price expectation in 2020 "

ca. 30 – 70 $ct/W"

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Development of the German PV market

* Schätzung Ref.: BSW Solar, Berlin 2009

Newest market size number is 3.8 GW

Feed-in tariff

1.000 roof

100.000 roof

Renewable Energy Sources

Act (EEG)

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Feed in Tariff in Germany after 1st October, 2010 on buildings (private and commercial) ["ct/kWh]

System size < 30 kW > 30 kW > 100 kW > 1.000 kW

1.10.2010 33 31.4 29.7 24.8

1.1.2011 at >6.5 GW " -13%

28.7 27.3 25.9 21.6

1.1.2012 at >4.5 GW " -15 %

24.4 23.2 22 18.3

Self use bonus max 500 kW

Self use < 30% 16.7 15 13.4 -

Self use > 30% 21 19.4 17.7 -

Saved price ca. 20

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Consumer Goods like

# mobiles # laptops # FPD television # automobiles and many more

only need a global fair trade: customers want the new product!

Strategic Goods like

# the way electricity is produced # the way transportation is done # the way people are living in the urban environment

do need initial political and public support

Different Products and Services Need Different Support Mechanisms

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Projection of electricity market prices in "/MWh

"/MWh

year

Ref.:SüdWestStrom, Marktstudie zur Strompreisentwicklung in Deutschland, Vorgehensweise und indikative Ergebnisse einer Berechnung, Mai 2008

Future liberalized utility market:

Hedging value 3 ct/kWh

Hedging value 1.5 ct/kWh

Hedging value 1 ct/kWh

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Net present benefit from PV deployment

Baseline Accelerated Growth Paradigm Shift

Low Case (1.5 ct/kWh Hedging value) High Case (3.0 ct/kWh Hedging value)

155 182 235

! Bn FiT investment needed in absolute values

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RES-thinking 2050 Worldwide PV Growth Scenario till 2050

PV Growth Rate PV Volume Growth

CAGR 2000-2009: 45%

Ref: EREC and EPIA 2010

Cum

ulat

ed P

V Po

wer

[GW

]

Year

ly In

stal

led

PV P

ower

[GW

]

Source: EREC RES-Thinking, 03/2010

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IEA PV Roadmap Vision

PV cumulative installed capacity to reach 900 GW in 2030 and 3000 GW in 2050

ETP 2010 Hi-RE Scenario

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RGB 253/196/0

RGB 224/81/21

CMYK 5/95/100/0

RGB 227/50/38

CMYK 0/70/0/10

RGB 218/104/157

CMYK 50/80/0/0

RGB 148/83/161

CMYK 100/5/5/10

RGB 0/152/203

CMYK 30/8/100/15

RGB 165/175/41

CMYK 0/0/0/60

RGB 98/100/100


EURELECTRIC Scenario ….

Total ~ 4.750 TWh

38 % of RES-E 1.800 TWh in 2050

Wind = 56% of RES

Solar = « negligible »!!

Source: Eurelectric, Power Choices

Brussels, 20 january 2010

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RGB 224/81/21

CMYK 5/95/100/0

RGB 227/50/38

CMYK 0/70/0/10

RGB 218/104/157

CMYK 50/80/0/0

RGB 148/83/161

CMYK 100/5/5/10

RGB 0/152/203

CMYK 30/8/100/15

RGB 165/175/41

CMYK 0/0/0/60

RGB 98/100/100


!  EU-27 !  100% target for RES of final energy !  All RES sources to contribute !  43% electricity share assumed

(vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario)

!  World (OECD) !  80% target for RES of final energy !  43% electricity share assumed, too !  PV covers about 1/4 of electricity

and about 1/6 of final energy demand !  Total PV energy supply in 2050:

11k TWh/a

PV Growth Assumption for 2050

RES-thinking 2050 – World PV Growth Scenario till 2050

Ref: EREC 2010 and W. Hoffmann personal estimates

Main Color

Palette


RGB 253/196/0

RGB 224/81/21

CMYK 5/95/100/0

RGB 227/50/38

CMYK 0/70/0/10

RGB 218/104/157

CMYK 50/80/0/0

RGB 148/83/161

CMYK 100/5/5/10

RGB 0/152/203

CMYK 30/8/100/15

RGB 165/175/41

CMYK 0/0/0/60

RGB 98/100/100


Development of the Various Market Segments"

Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates

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RGB 253/196/0

RGB 224/81/21

CMYK 5/95/100/0

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CMYK 0/70/0/10

RGB 218/104/157

CMYK 50/80/0/0

RGB 148/83/161

CMYK 100/5/5/10

RGB 0/152/203

CMYK 30/8/100/15

RGB 165/175/41

CMYK 0/0/0/60

RGB 98/100/100


Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a 100% Global End Energy Coverage

ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/2010

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RGB 253/196/0

RGB 224/81/21

CMYK 5/95/100/0

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CMYK 0/70/0/10

RGB 218/104/157

CMYK 50/80/0/0

RGB 148/83/161

CMYK 100/5/5/10

RGB 0/152/203

CMYK 30/8/100/15

RGB 165/175/41

CMYK 0/0/0/60

RGB 98/100/100


The World Wide Super Grid

Sou

rce:

Sol

ar M

illen

nium

AG

, Erla

ngen

excellent good suitable not suitable …for Solar Thermal Power Plant

Super Grid „EUMENA“ 2010 - 2050

not suitable

Super Grid „NAFTA“ 2020 - 2060 Super Grid „ASIA“ 2030 - 2070 Super Grid „AUSTRALIA“ 2040 - 2080 Super Grid „WORLD WIDE“ 2050 - 2100

#  Electricity

#  wind off-/ on shore

#  Solar Thermal Power Plant

#  PV Solar Electricity

#  Other Renewables

#  Hydrogen for special applications

#  Solar Thermal for heating and cooling

1

2

3

4

12

3

4

55

5

3

3

5ref: W. Hoffmann SCHOTT Solar, Alzenau

Main Color

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RGB 253/196/0

RGB 224/81/21

CMYK 5/95/100/0

RGB 227/50/38

CMYK 0/70/0/10

RGB 218/104/157

CMYK 50/80/0/0

RGB 148/83/161

CMYK 100/5/5/10

RGB 0/152/203

CMYK 30/8/100/15

RGB 165/175/41

CMYK 0/0/0/60

RGB 98/100/100

Main Color

Palette


RGB 253/196/0

RGB 224/81/21

CMYK 5/95/100/0

RGB 227/50/38

CMYK 0/70/0/10

RGB 218/104/157

CMYK 50/80/0/0

RGB 148/83/161

CMYK 100/5/5/10

RGB 0/152/203

CMYK 30/8/100/15

RGB 165/175/41

CMYK 0/0/0/60

RGB 98/100/100

Main Color

Palette


RGB 253/196/0

RGB 224/81/21

CMYK 5/95/100/0

RGB 227/50/38

CMYK 0/70/0/10

RGB 218/104/157

CMYK 50/80/0/0

RGB 148/83/161

CMYK 100/5/5/10

RGB 0/152/203

CMYK 30/8/100/15

RGB 165/175/41

CMYK 0/0/0/60

RGB 98/100/100

Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit

101029 TNC 25a · 2018. 2. 26. · 101029_TNC 25a W. Hoffmann 2 Gliederung 1. PV Markt: Historie...

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Transcript of 101029 TNC 25a · 2018. 2. 26. · 101029_TNC 25a W. Hoffmann 2 Gliederung 1. PV Markt: Historie...